JLL CEO Ulbrich on the Global Commercial Real Estate Landscape

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: JLL CEO Ulbrich on the Global Commercial Real Estate Landscape
Date: September 11, 2025
Host(s): Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec
Guest: Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO of JLL

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Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth interview with Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO of JLL, one of the world's leading real estate services firms. Speaking from Frankfurt, Germany, Ulbrich shares insights on the global commercial real estate (CRE) landscape, with a focus on how the US market compares internationally, emerging trends in the office and industrial sectors, the evolving role of artificial intelligence (AI), the impact of US monetary policy, and policy factors like tariffs and immigration.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The US vs. Global Commercial Real Estate Markets

[02:21 - 03:26]

• Performance Metrics: Ulbrich notes two perspectives: absolute performance and relative performance of CRE markets.
  • Absolute Performance: US CRE is "okay, it's improving" from the 2023 trough.
  • Relative Performance: Compared to other western mature economies, the US is "doing really great" and remains attractive to international investors.
• Quote:

  "The absolute performance of the US is ok ... compared to other western mature economies, the US is doing really great and is an attractive area for investment for international investors."
  — Christian Ulbrich [02:56]

2. Sector-Specific Trends: Office, Manufacturing, and Industrials

[03:26 - 04:37]

• Office Market:

  • Deep trough post-COVID, followed by recovery as more large companies return workers to the office.
  • Over 54% of Fortune 100 firms now expect employees back full-time, boosting high-quality office space demand.
  • The sector is coming from a low base but has "a lot of runway."

• Industrials:

  • Historically strong but now "a little bit shaky" due to uncertainties over global tariffs.
  • Prospects will improve with greater certainty around trade policy.

• Quote:

  "More than 54% of the Fortune 100 companies in the US expect people back into the office for five days a week ... there's still a lot of runway for the office sector."
  — Christian Ulbrich [03:35]

3. Artificial Intelligence and Office Footprint

[04:37 - 05:38]

• AI’s Current Impact:
  • Too early to definitively predict how AI will shape demand for office space.
  • Present investment in AI is actually creating jobs and supporting demand, particularly in the US tech sector.
  • Possible future reduction of white-collar jobs with more developed AI adoption, but for now, no negative impact.
• Quote:

  "At the moment [AI] doesn't have any negative impact. You can argue it's almost the opposite ... where we have a lot of investment into AI and a lot of new staffing coming into the tech companies."
  — Christian Ulbrich [05:01]

4. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

[05:38 - 07:05]

• General Effect:
  • Lower rates reduce the cost of capital for CRE investors, possibly supporting higher prices.
  • Minor, predictable rate changes don’t drastically shift the market.
  • "Rapid and unexpected movements" are what unsettle the market.
• Quote:

  "Those one or two rate cuts which are now expected for this year, they will support the overall kind of environment for real estate investment, but it will not have a massive impact."
  — Christian Ulbrich [06:12]

5. Tariffs, Immigration, & US Manufacturing Investment

[07:05 - 08:27]

• Labor Concerns Remain:
  • Even before tariff debates, there was a skilled labor shortage in the US.
  • Immigration policy uncertainty adds to investor hesitancy.
  • The US’s traditional appeal to global talent is now "an open question"; stabilizing immigration would help bolster investment.
• Quote:

  "For everybody who wants to invest into the US, the question where will they find the skilled labor is a big debate... Whether the most talented people ... will see the US as their destiny ... is now an open question."
  — Christian Ulbrich [07:31]

6. Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac: Potential (Re-)IPO Impact

[08:27 - 09:29]

• Calm Approach:
  • Ulbrich expects the market to adapt, regardless of government vs. private ownership.
  • Their central role in the US housing market will continue whichever entity is in charge post-IPO.
• Quote:

  "I'm sure that in any format of an IPO, whoever will be the owner of those entities, will try to prevail the success of that instrument going forward and so we see that relatively relaxed."
  — Christian Ulbrich [08:54]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• The resilience of US CRE:

  "Compared to other western mature economies, the US is doing really great and is an attractive area for investment."
  — Christian Ulbrich [02:56]

• Office recovery context:

  "As we are coming from a very low base, there's still a lot of runway for the offices sector."
  — Christian Ulbrich [03:35]

• AI’s nascent but promising CRE impact:

  "[AI] doesn't have any negative impact ... it's almost the opposite ... a lot of investment into AI and a lot of new staffing coming into tech companies."
  — Christian Ulbrich [05:01]

• Macro factors shaping investment:

  "Lower rates support the environment for real estate investment, but rapid and unexpected movements are what unsettle the market."
  — Christian Ulbrich [06:12]

• On US talent and immigration:

  "Whether the most talented people ... will see the US as their destiny ... is now an open question."
  — Christian Ulbrich [07:31]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• US Performance vs Global Markets: [02:21 - 03:26]
• Sector Trends (Office & Industrial): [03:26 - 04:37]
• AI and Office Demand: [04:37 - 05:38]
• Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: [05:38 - 07:05]
• Immigration, Tariffs & Manufacturing: [07:05 - 08:27]
• Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Re-IPO: [08:27 - 09:29]

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Tone & Style

Ulbrich offers a calm, data-driven snapshot of global CRE, with a particular focus on pragmatism and adaptability in the face of economic uncertainty and evolving business practices. The conversation balances optimism about the US’s relative strength with the realism of lingering uncertainties (policy, labor, technology).

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This summary captures the main themes, arguments, and data points from the episode, providing a comprehensive overview for listeners interested in the current and future state of global commercial real estate.

Transcript

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You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Radio.

[Bloomberg Host]

Let's check in on the real estate market and specifically commercial real estate. We're joined now by Christian Ulbricht. He is the President and CEO of jll. He is joining us now on Zoom from Frankfurt, Germany. Christian, great to have you here with us. And you have a really unique perch, of course, a very global perch when it comes to the global commercial real estate market. And so with that in mind, how does the US Stack up versus the rest of the world? Is this one broad picture that you can paint with A broad brushstroke or how much dispersion is there when you take a look globally?

[Christian Ulbricht]

Well, when you look at the western mature economies, there's the absolute performance and there's the relative performance. The absolute performance of the US is okay, it's, it's improving over the last couple of quarters against what we have seen during the trough of 23. But then there's also the relative performance against the other western mature economies. And in compared to that the US is doing really great and is an attractive area for investment for international investors.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Are there parts of the market that you see, I don't know better set up to succeed, whether that's manufacturing, industrials, office. Where are you seeing the strength right now?

[Christian Ulbricht]

Well again on the offices side we saw a really deep trough post Covid and the discussions around what is the need for offices going forward. But what we have seen over the last couple of months that more and more of the large corporates are asking their people back into the office. In fact, when you look at the Fortune 100, more than 54% of the Fortune 100 companies in the US expect people back into the office for five days a week. And that has obviously resulted in a steady increase in demand for high quality office space. And as we are coming from a very low base, there's still a lot of Runway for the offices sector with regards to industrial, usually a very strong sector but still a little bit shaky from the impacts, the unknown impacts from the tariffs around the world. So that is still something where we hope that we get a little bit more certainty into the market and then that asset class will recover as well.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Well Christian, you talk about the return to office post Covid. Obviously top of mind for investors, consumers and managers is the impact of AI. How are you seeing companies within office thinking about whether or not they can reduce their in office footprint not just kind of to account for people returning to the office, but if you're implementing AI and you need less white collar jobs, presumably that means you need less office space.

[Christian Ulbricht]

Yeah, that is obviously a big discussion. I would say this is still too early to really make clear predictions what's going to happen at the moment it doesn't have any negative impact. You can argue it's at the moment almost the opposite for the US at least where we have a lot of investment into AI and a lot of new staffing coming into the tech companies. But going forward that could become a topic. But as I said, we are still in the early innings where AI is really showing its, its impact and so it's, we cannot say what, how that will play out longer term.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yes, certainly a lot of investment into. I still unclear, of course, what that means for the worker and the buildings that they work in. But I want to wrap in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations to this conversation. It seems like a done deal that we're going to get a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in less than two weeks time. What happens for the rest of the year, unclear. But how is that conversation and these shifting rate cut expectations sort of translating into what property owners are considering doing with their real estate?

[Christian Ulbricht]

Well, simply speaking, when you have interest rates expected to come down, that will have an impact on pricing because the cost of capital for those real estate investors will come down and therefore they can afford higher pricing. And we had that debate now for many, many months. First whether it will come further up and then when it will come. Usually these smaller changes in interest rates and especially the ones which I expected don't have a massive impact because people are adapting to it. What the market doesn't like is any rapid movements and especially those unexpected movements. So going forward, those one or two rate cuts which are now expected for this year, they will support the overall kind of environment for real estate investment, but it will not have a massive impact.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Yeah, one thing we were talking about at the top of the show is the impact of kind of immigration and the lack of immigration or some of these ICE raids and how that impacts manufacturing. What's your read of building and investing in Donald Trump's kind of push for manufacturing and bringing manufacturing back to the US if there's so much uncertainty around tariffs and the ability to actually get employees from other countries here in the US to work.

[Christian Ulbricht]

Well, that is certainly an aspect of, of uncertainty. I mean, before we had all those debates about tariffs to the U.S. from the U.S. to other countries, we already had a shortage of skilled labor in, in the US So that hasn't become much better since then. So for everybody who wants to invest into the US the question where will they find the skilled labor? Is a big debate. And, and the uncertainty, immigration, not only the pictures we see on tv, but also the question around whether the most talented people around the world who usually aspire to come to the US Will see the US as kind of their destiny, or whether they want to have their careers elsewhere is now an open question. So whatever going forward helps to calm that situation down will obviously then also help to bring more certainty for those who want to invest into the U.S.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

We'Re talking to President CEO of JL Christian Ulbricht Christian, just want to ask about something top of mind here in the US is potentially the IPO or re IPO of Fannie and Freddie. How are you thinking about that? What is your view on the potential impact not only as it relates to US homebuyers but the entire ecosystem as it relates to real estate? If these are two companies that end up getting out of government conservatorship and into the public markets.

[Christian Ulbricht]

Listen, I think we will deal with that situation when they are private company as we have dealt with the situation when they were a public company, publicly owned company. So it is a very important instrument for the U.S. housing market. It has place a huge role and I'm sure that in any format of an ipo, whoever will be the owner of those entities will try to prevail the success of that instrument going forward and so we see that relatively relaxed.

[Bloomberg Host]

All right Christian, really appreciate your perspective. Great to get some time with you. That is Christian Ulbricht. He is the President and CEO of jll, joining us from Frankfurt, Germany.

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