Mild Inflation Print Boosts Fed-Cut Bets

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Mild Inflation Print Boosts Fed-Cut Bets
Date: February 13, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Notable Guests: Dr. Adam Posen (Peterson Institute), Christina Stambol (Farm Girl Flowers), Todd Gillespie (Bloomberg), Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Crypto Editor), Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech)

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Overview

This episode focuses on the latest U.S. inflation data, Fed policy, fiscal and demographic trends affecting the American and global economies, and key market stories. The hosts engage Dr. Adam Posen for dissection of the inflation print, expectations for future rate cuts, and deeper risks to the economy. Other segments explore consumer behavior around Valentine’s Day with Farm Girl Flowers’ CEO, the ongoing fallout from the Epstein/Goldman Sachs saga, implications of SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, and a spike in Coinbase shares, including the regulatory backdrop for crypto.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Economy, Inflation, and Fed Policy

Guest: Dr. Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics

• Take on the latest inflation print:
  • Posen urges investors not to overreact to minor deviations (+/- 0.1-0.2 points) in monthly inflation numbers, emphasizing broader trends over monthly volatility.
  • Key economic underpinnings: the labor market remains stable with solid job retention but not rapid growth; potential for significant stimulus ahead of midterms via tax checks and possible restoration of Obamacare subsidies.

“If you're plus or minus 0.1, 0.2 from expectation on any given month's print...you have to look at the bigger stories.” — Adam Posen (03:00)

• Risks of more fiscal stimulus:

  • Likelihood of further inflationary pressure if Congress passes more stimulative policies (e.g., pre-election checks, fiscal expansion).
  • Posen and Peter Orszag predict inflation could "exceed 4% by the end of 2026" (04:22), citing lagged impacts of tariffs, migration restrictions, and delayed business responses.

• Fed Leadership and Policy Risks:

  • Concern over a less reactive Fed, especially as political pressures mount for looser policy. Posen references nominee Kevin Warsh and Secretary Bessant as potential drivers of dovish policy, despite data suggesting otherwise.
  • Debate over whether effects from tariffs and anti-immigration moves are “one-time shocks” or persistent.
  • Possible upside from AI productivity gains, but Posen cautions that disinflation effects from tech adoption historically lag.

“Nominee Warsh, Governor Waller and others have said that some of these tariff and other effects are one time shocks...We'll see. That would be very unusual.” — Adam Posen (07:00)

• Biggest 'Realistic' Risks for the U.S. Economy:
  • In the near-term (3–12 months): High inflation is the principal risk, not unemployment or a China trade war.
  • Longer-term (1–2 years): Demographics, especially declining immigration and potential drop in labor force due to lack of childcare/healthcare supports.

“I think the realistic risk for the US in the next three to twelve months is probably inflation is the biggest risk.” — Adam Posen (09:25)

• Beyond 2 years: Balancing AI’s economic boost with employment dislocation; the economic profession, he says, has “no clear idea”.

2. U.S. Labor Force, Wealth Gaps & Sentiment

• Disconnect between economic data and public sentiment:
  • Posen notes that “the connection between surveys of how good people feel or how confident people feel has become much more tenuous in terms of linking it to actual economic outcomes.” (12:22)
  • Factors influencing sentiment include wealth inequality, “uncertainty,” and politics, rather than macro indicators alone.

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3. Valentine's Day Spending & Supply Chain Realities

Guest: Christina Stambol, CEO, Farm Girl Flowers

• Valentine’s Day Trends:

  • Holiday expected to hit a record $29.1B in spending, with $200 average per shopper (16:20).
  • Farm Girl’s orders and average spends are up YOY, signaling healthy holiday consumption, but Mother’s Day remains the biggest floral holiday.

• Consumer Preferences:

  • Survey reveals most women don’t want traditional red roses; they prefer “bright, mixed, beautiful bouquets and thoughtful choices.” (19:43)
  • Delivery logistics: Saturday deliveries are problematic for small firms; recipients often prefer earlier weekday arrivals.

“Women don't want to get the flowers on Saturday. They want to get them earlier in the week so they can enjoy them.” — Christina Stambol (21:30)

• Tariff Impacts & U.S. Flower Industry:
  • Tariffs are raising costs on both imports and U.S. grown flowers (bulbs, fertilizer, insurance, labor), making domestic flowers up to 3–4x pricier than imports—even accounting for tariffs.
  • 80% of flower imports from Colombia; U.S. farms face steep production costs.

“A tulip is…three to four times more expensive to buy it here in the U.S....even with the tariffs because of what the farmers here are experiencing.” — Christina Stambol (24:00)

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4. Goldman Sachs and the Epstein Files

Guest: Todd Gillespie, Bloomberg Banking Reporter

• Resignation of Kathy Rummler, Goldman’s Top Lawyer:

  • Sparked by continued revelations about her close relationship with Epstein, including legal advice provided, involvement in media strategy to quell negative coverage, and assistance with job referrals.
  • Internal and external criticism mounts over Goldman's handling and Rummler’s continued defense by CEO David Solomon.

• Debate over ethics and legal exposure:

  • Rummler claims she did "nothing illegal," but documentation shows active participation in Epstein’s efforts post-plea agreement.
  • Her entry into Epstein’s circle came well after his registered sex offender status (2015), and persisted after new abuse revelations (2018 Miami Herald).

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5. SpaceX: Dual-Class Share Structure & IPO

Guest: Ed Ludlow, Bloomberg Tech

• IPO Structure Rumors:
  • SpaceX is considering a dual-class share setup to allow Elon Musk to maintain voting control—mirroring prior efforts with Tesla.
  • Existing private share structure already ensures Musk’s influence, despite a diversified cap table (Google, Fidelity, Founders Fund).

“The control part is for [Musk] to be able to do it.” — Ed Ludlow (37:32)

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6. Crypto Market Momentum and Coinbase Rally

Guest: Stacy Maria Schmall, Executive Editor for Crypto/Payments, Bloomberg News

• Coinbase Surge after Weak Results:

  • Coinbase stock up 17%; market appears to be “hoping this is the bottom” after a tough quarter for crypto (42:34).
  • Sentiment buoyed by belief that many negative factors are priced in, and losses tied mostly to bitcoin’s recent slide.

• Regulatory Watch:

  • The digital asset sector anticipates the "Clarity Act" to codify market rules and stablecoin frameworks, which would help firms like Coinbase and Robinhood by reducing regulatory uncertainty.

“There is very much the sense within the digital asset industry that there is one remaining key piece of legislation ... that's been called the Clarity Act.” — Stacy Maria Schmall (45:03)

• Coinbase’s Business Model and the Evolving Crypto Landscape:
  • Most revenue from transaction fees, but company is evolving towards a broader financial/fintech role, exploring tokenization and partnerships with ETF providers.
  • The future could see crypto used alongside existing payment rails (SWIFT, ACH), increasing regulation and volume but moving away from the original ‘decentralized’ ethos.

“Crypto becomes a traditional financial payments rail...so normalized that it’s a way...and you don’t even think about it. One of the great ironies...it’s absolutely the opposite of what the people who came up with crypto.” — Stacy Maria Schmall (48:54)

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “If you're plus or minus 0.1, 0.2 from expectation...you have to look at the bigger stories.”
  — Dr. Adam Posen (03:00)

• “Inflation could...potentially exceed 4% by the end of 2026.”
  — Carol Massar, referencing Adam Posen/Peter Orszag column (04:22)

• “Nominee Warsh, Governor Waller...some of these tariff and other effects are one time shocks....That would be very unusual.”
  — Dr. Adam Posen (07:00)

• “The connection between surveys of how good people feel or how confident people feel has become much more tenuous...”
  — Dr. Adam Posen (12:22)

• “Women don't want to get the flowers on Saturday. They want to get them earlier in the week so they can enjoy them.”
  — Christina Stambol (21:30)

• “A tulip is…three to four times more expensive to buy it here in the U.S....even with the tariffs.”
  — Christina Stambol (24:00)

• “Coinbase...is this a signal that people think this is the bottom?”
  — Tim Stenovec (42:54)

• “Crypto becomes a traditional financial payments rail...[that’s] absolutely the opposite of what the people who came up with crypto [envisioned].”
  — Stacy Maria Schmall (48:54)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Inflation print & Fed outlook with Adam Posen: 02:47 – 13:16
• Valentine’s Day/flower industry insights: 17:02 – 24:13
• Goldman Sachs/Epstein files discussion: 27:30 – 35:52
• SpaceX share structure & control: 36:04 – 38:47
• Coinbase, crypto market & regulation: 42:30 – 50:17

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Memorable Moments

• Posen on policy risks:
  “There’s room for me to be plenty wrong, but I think we’re going to end up [with] pretty high inflation.” (08:50)
• Farm Girl CEO on Saturday deliveries:
  “It’s horrible... The only day worse is Sunday.” (20:57)
• Bloomberg on Coinbase optimism:
  “It was still very much kind of like, OK, we think now we're at a level that stuff may be oversold.” — Stacy Maria Schmall (43:17)
• Stacy Maria Schmall on irony in crypto’s future:
  “It's absolutely the opposite of what the people who came up with crypto [envisioned].” (49:31)

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Conclusion

This episode is a robust, wide-ranging survey of economic and financial trends—from Fed policy and political influences on inflation to the micro-view of how tariffs affect the flower business. The discussion also includes timely coverage of major news stories (Epstein/Goldman), market structure (SpaceX), and the ever-evolving crypto landscape. The episode is data-driven, features candid insights, and showcases Bloomberg’s ability to synthesize macro and micro trends for a global business audience.

Transcript

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[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

A fire inside you you can't ignore. Stand still.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Not a chance. You're a lifelong learner who's come this far.

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[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg businessweek Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg businessweek Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio. We're going to stay tim on the U.S. economy. We're going to broaden out as well, especially when it comes to geopolitics and the global economy, something we talked about with our Stu Paul yesterday.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

We got a great voice to do this. Dr. Adam Posen joins us, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joining us this afternoon. Afternoon from Washington, D.C. before we broaden out, Dr. Posen, want to talk about the U.S. economy coming off of that inflation print that we just talked about with Mike McKee. Where do you see the U.S. economy heading?

[Dr. Adam Posen]

Well, thank you for having me back, Tim. And I agree with a lot of what Mike said about what was under the hood. But the main thing I think your investor listeners should be thinking about is that if you're plus or minus 0.1, 0.2 from expectation on any given month's print and it's not real information, I mean, nobody has their expectations that precise. So you have to look at the bigger stories. And to me, the bigger stories in the US Are that we have a labor market that isn't cratering as people used to worry about, that has solid retention of employment, not huge employment growth, but solid retention. We have potentially some very stimulative fiscal policies coming down the pike in that the Republican majorities in the Congress may give President Trump checks to hand out ahead of the midterm elections in November. They may, I hope they will restore some of the funding for Obamacare insurance subsidies that were taken out in last year's bill. And we've got in the end, a bunch of things on the tariff front and even more so on the anti migration front that are percolating through the economy. And people were premature to say, oh, it all must have happened by now or it won't happen. That's not right. It takes time for businesses and households and migrants to make decisions. So I'm with Mike, I'm with a lot of people. I think the pricing of three Fed cuts this year is much too many.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

So this explains, or I'm assuming this kind of explains, Dr. Posen, that you and Lazard CEO Peter Orszag, of course, formerly director, director of the Office of Management and Budget and director of the cbo, you guys put out a column in January that the Fed's 2% inflation target could be totally left in the dust. You think inflation could, quote surprise to the upside, potentially exceeding 4% by the end of 2026. Is it because of what you just laid out in terms of, you know, tax cuts, federal government spending? These are things that are going to be stimulative stimulation.

[Dr. Adam Posen]

Carol Exactly. And Peter and I and I was glad to co author with Peter because he knows the fiscal stuff. So if he and I agree that these are real likely risks to more stimulus out of fiscal. I'm willing to buy it or willing to sell it actually. But I think the other things that we're talking about is the lagged effect of tariffs and anti migration. I wrote about this in a column for Businessweek magazine earlier this month. I think we're talking about and Peter points too from his perch at Lazard, various corporate CEOs like at Amazon and or the beige books from the Fed that say companies are only just now passing through some of these adjustments. I think there's also just the bottom line that the labor market is more solid. And so if we get any inflation it's in a more tight economy. And then finally, whether or not we get into the new leadership at the Fed, after all the attacks on the Fed over the last year since President Trump came back into office, you have to be a little more worried that the Fed will not react quickly if there is inflation and that to some degree becomes self fulfilling. So I think there's a lot of things going on now. It could be a recession, it could be that the migrants really haven't left yet. They could be that the government breaks down and doesn't pass the stimulus, in which case inflation won't be that high. But I think each of these is pretty darn likely and cumulatively they get you up to high inflation by end of the year.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

You mentioned the Fed. So I want to go there and then, and then I want to do some demographic stuff because there's a lot of questions about what the economy looks like in the next few years with the decline in immigration. On the Fed, you said if the Fed is less reactive moving forward, is that a result you think of Kevin Warsh being nominated as chair of the Fed?

[Dr. Adam Posen]

I think it's a result of the desires expressed so strongly by President Trump and by Secretary Bessant and by not just Kevin Warsh the nominee, but all the shortlisted people who would be Fed chair in favor of loosening policy quite a bit and doing so in the face of data which the vast majority of the Federal Open Market Committee has publicly said leads them to want to pause. I think should give people pause. So I think there is a real issue there. I think there's also genuine debate to be had. Nominee Warsh, Governor Waller and others have said that some of these tariff and other effects are one time shocks. They're not going to be passed on. We'll see. That would be very unusual. But maybe they've also said or started to say that productivity growth will bail us out. We'll be able to have more growth with less inflation. That's more plausible to me. But even there, that's by no means for sure. There was a nice piece by Jason Furman in the Wall Street Journal discussing this. The angle I would take is just as Governor Waller or Kevin War says, with the tariffs, you get a real income shock. In this case, positive from AI, it's indeterminate ahead of time. To use a fancy word, how much of that shows up as income and how much of that shows up as price disinflation? My reading of the historical evidence is when you get a new technology, most of the disinflation stuff comes with a lag because that only comes when companies start restructuring, changing their workforces to figure out how to use the stuff. Whereas some of the income growth, the productivity growth, you get up front just because we've all got a new toy. So yeah, I think there's room for me to be plenty wrong, but I think we're going to end up pretty high inflation. That's behind the curve.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

So is that the biggest realistic risk to the US economy? I wanted to insert that word realistic because I think we talk about risks all the time and there's a list, you know, as long as my arm and then some. But I'm just curious, is it higher inflation? Is it higher interest rates, Is it demographics and older population folks not having babies? Is it less immigration, Is it rising debt, Is it China? US tech? Like, what do you think is the biggest realistic risk to the US Economy? Maybe to the global economy, yeah.

[Dr. Adam Posen]

Well, thank you for putting it that way, Carol. I would sort the risks by two categories, the realistic and unrealistic, as you said. But then at what time frame they hit? I think the realistic risk for the US in the next three to 12 months is probably inflation is the biggest risk. I'm not that worried about a downside unemployment. I'm not that worried about trade wars turning into hot wars with China. I mean, I'm worried about it. It'd be terrible. But I'm not that worried. It's likely. But if we start looking out 1, 2 years, then to me the realistic risk starts to get into some of those demographic issues you and Tim just mentioned because we are cutting off a lot of people from the workforce by excluding or deporting migrants. There's a lot of things that happen. For example, the female labor force participation in prime age women. If you don't have cheap available health care and cheap available childcare the budget doesn't support that out of the federal government. And health care is cut back if they don't pass the subsidies for Obamacare. And even if they do, it's still cut back. So those are the things in the next couple of years. But then when we think beyond that, then you've got a tug of war between the positive impact of AI and the potential for large scale unemployment as people adjust to AI. And there, I gotta say, not only I, but the economics profession has no clear idea. There are a few people out there with very strong opinions, but there's no consensus. And we're still working on that.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

What's your best bet there? What's. There's no consensus. We don't know what's going to happen. We can't see the future. But what's realistic.

[Dr. Adam Posen]

What's realistic is productivity growth stays up as high as it's now starting to trend, maybe even goes a little higher. And unemployment shoots up in a couple of years, but doesn't shoot up enormously. And it is disproportionately on younger people and that you get some decline in labor force participation because people figure out different ways of living their lives. And so the unemployment number understates. How many people feel displaced?

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Yeah, gosh, a million questions I want to ask you. When do we. Are we seeing kind of the fruits of the gaps in wealth playing out globally and is it kind of where we are? It's amazing to me where people point to stock market highs. We've talked about the K shaped economy a lot, but how many conversations I have on a regular basis with so many Americans that just find it difficult and ones that I wouldn't even think so, that are probably in a decent income bracket, but it just doesn't feel so good.

[Dr. Adam Posen]

No. I think as economists you all are anchors, you cover everything. But as economists have got to be a little bit modest that sometimes when people don't feel so good, it's not about the economic numbers. They may say it's about that, but it's about their relative position in life. It's about uncertainty. It's about through an ideological lens, is their party in power, not in power are their kids. So it's not that people's feelings are unimportant, but obviously not. They can vote, they can choose. But the connection, and there's very clear data on this, the connection between surveys of how good people feel or how confident people feel has become much more tenuous in terms of linking it to actual economic outcomes than it used to be. That's interesting what I would say. Carol.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

We have to run though.

[Dr. Adam Posen]

Yeah.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Quick.

[Dr. Adam Posen]

No, no, no.

[Odoo Advertiser]

Sorry.

[Dr. Adam Posen]

Just, just, just to say that the the global situation is similar to the us. There's a lot of youth unemployment in China and in Europe and that we got to think about just means we.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Want to have you come back real soon, Dr. Posen.

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

Be well.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Have a great weekend.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Coming up after this.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset port stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comdisclosures hi, I'm.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

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[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

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[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

Like why even bother saying that?

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

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[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. Hey. Consumer spending on Valentine's Day expected to reach a record $29.1 billion according to an annual survey that was released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights and Analytics. Now, that amount surpasses the previous record of 27.5 billion that was last year. Shoppers budgeting a record almost $200 on average for gifts, an increase from $189 last year and surpassing the previous record of $196 spent in 2020.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

So basically, people are going to spend 200 bucks? Is that what you're telling me?

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Yeah.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Okay. That seems like a lot.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

It's like a lot like I, I love.

[Odoo Advertiser]

I love.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Yeah, but, but it's like, I don't know. Yeah, it's sweet.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Okay.

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

I do love.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Let's ask Christina Stambol. She's founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers. It's a firm she built from the ground up. She bootstrapped it starting back in 2010, making bouquets from her San Francisco apartment. She's in Gig Harbor, Washington, today at what the company calls the farm quarters, which I'm guessing is like, you know, there's a headquarters. There's a farm headquarters. This is the farm quarters. Where are you exactly?

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Yeah, we're about an hour south of Seattle.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

And what's going on there?

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Lots of, lots of busyness here going on. Just like Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, as you know, been on here many times with you. Thank you for having me back, by the way, but just a lot of busyness, a lot of forecasting, making sure the orders are coming in. We're taking care of our customers. Well, the normal Valentine's Day hub up. All right.

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

Yeah.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

What we do know, though, is that people think Valentine's Day is the busiest day for you, but it's not. Mother's Day is a busier holiday, right?

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Yeah. This is our, like, warm up to Mother's Day, so it's good to have this one first. Mother's Day is about double the size of Valentine's Day for.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Well, tell us about, like, kind of what's going on behind the scenes. And I am curious. We are curious. Is it busier than last year or, you know.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

No.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

You are always such a great read on the consumer because I think about things like holidays is when, okay, we can find the money to spend. So give us an idea of what the consumer is doing this year, what they're buying, how much they're spending.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Yeah, yeah. It kind of falls in line with what you just said. We are seeing that people are spending a little bit more this year. Orders are up a little bit as well, year over year, which we're really happy about. And they're spending more this year, which is also a great thing. Valentine's Day has always been kind of a high average order value. High. A high ticket item holiday for us. Mother's Day tends to be a little bit less. We get a lot more orders, you know, but people spend a little bit less on their moms, unfortunately, than their lovers.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

What are they buying this year?

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Yeah, they're buying. You know, we did a survey again. We hadn't done any surveying of our customers since before COVID So we did a great survey this year that told, you know, kind of gave us more insights. You know, everything's kind of, you know, changed a lot since COVID So we wanted to see if we were still providing what customers wanted. And we found a lot of the same from before COVID and a little bit different. So it's a thought that counts. You know, our customers want their loved ones to really think about what they. What they like to know what flower, like, their favorite flower. Like, instead of a red rose, we did find just like before COVID not many women want. True. Just standard red rose.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

No, we don't want it. Guys get the message.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Sorry. Most totally. You're so right, Carol. Women want a bright, mixed beautiful bouquet. So that's what we're giving our customers a lot of options on. Bright, beautiful bouquets. But since men are the consumer for this holiday, we also have to keep them happy. We found this many, many years ago, over a decade ago, when I was just kind of stumped with why the senders were not happy, but the recipients were. And so that was the first survey ever did over a decade ago and found that just what women and what men want are very different. So men want a red rose. So we're mixing red rose in with a lot of other flowers to give women what they want and men what they want when they order. But the main thing from our survey showed us that women really, and you know, everyone really, not just women, wants their partner to really think about the gifts they're giving. So if their favorite flower is a ranuncula, don't send a mixed bouquet. Send, you know, the 40 stems of beautiful Hanoi ranunculus that we have on our site. So they just really want to feel like the person that they're with knows them really well.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

What does it mean when there's a Saturday delivery? Like, I think about that a lot. Is it better? Is it easier? Is it harder? Like, how do, and how do consumers think about it?

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Yeah, it's horrible. So, you know, I'll just give it to you straight. It's, it's really bad. The only day worst is Sunday. So next year is going to be great. So, you know, when you're a company our size, which is small, we're a small business, you know, we don't have the buying power that some of the giant companies have that have made consumers think that, that Deliveries happen at 11pm on a Sunday. Even that doesn't happen for companies outside of those Goliath size companies that you think of with that. So we can't get Sunday deliveries and Saturday deliveries are tough. So not everybody lives in an urban enough place to receive deliveries on Saturdays. But the senders don't know that necessarily. So we offer Saturday delivery. We have it right now at the same price as is during the week. But there's a lot more risk on Saturday. It's that they're not going to make it there in time. So another thing we found in our survey is that this surprised us. Actually. Women don't want to get the flowers on Saturday. They want to get them earlier in the week so they can enjoy them. And on the weekends they have very full schedules. So they don't want to have to like worry that they're sitting on their front porch freezing somewhere. If you're in parts of the United States where it's freezing right now and the flowers aren't going to look good when they get home. So we found that most people wanted to get them early. We saw that in the orders too. Most people selected Friday for delivery. So now that timing's up, so now we're getting the People that might have slipped their minds and are ordering for Saturday delivery. But we're always on pins and needles like it's going to be a higher percent that don't make it in time on a Saturday.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Yeah, the last minute folks out there making the calls right now. Christina, in the past year when we had you on, you've spoken about tariffs because a lot of the what ends up in these bouquets comes from outside of the United States. Just give us an update there. And the way that you've shifted your supply chain or not and how the bottom line has been affected.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Yeah, tariffs are definitely impacting a lot this year in ways that people don't think about. And I wouldn't have thought about either. So I'm not. This is no shade on anybody. I wouldn't have thought about this if I didn't have a flower company. But, you know, flowers, they cost a lot more in the United States. So, you know, all the tariffs on encouraging to bring back manufacturing and agriculture to the United States, it just doesn't have that. That impact. I understand the intention is there, but the impact isn't that way because what happens are it's not just the flowers themselves. So, like when you're bringing in flowers from Europe or South America, which is a tremendous amount, I think the stat this year is 80% of the exports from Colombia came to the United States. I just saw this morning. So, you know, a lot are imported and you pay more for those imported flowers. But for US Grown flowers, you have all of the materials to grow those flowers. So the bulb prices have gone up so much. The fertilizers, everything that you're bringing in still to grow them here. And then on top of that, the land, the labor, everything here costs so much more. The insurance, the legals, you know, everything here in the US Costs more. So, you know, for instance, a good example, just to kind of break it down and just quickly. Yeah, a tulip. A tulip is, you know, three times, three to four times more expensive to buy it here in the U.S. we're still making that choice to buy tulips here, here in the US to support the farms that we have that we've worked with for a long time. But we could get them significantly cheaper if we imported them even with the tariffs because of what the farmers here are experiencing.

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

No, you, like, you really kind of like open a window for us in terms of what it means in terms of farming here in the United States. Happy Valentine's Day. Good luck. I know it's a crazy time for you, but always fun to check in with you. That, of course is Christina Stamble, founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Stay with us.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Coming up after this.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comdisclosures hi, I'm.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Cindy Crawford and I'm the founder of meaningful beauty.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

When Dr. Sabah and I decided to.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Do a skincare line together, he said.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

To me, we are going to give women meaningful beauty. And I said, that's exactly right. We want to give women meaningful beauty. Which means each and every product is meaningful. It has a reason to exist.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

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[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

You're going to get results and then you just go out and live your life. Meaningful Beauty Confidence is beautiful. Learn more@meaningful beauty.com.

[Odoo Advertiser]

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder? With a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for a accounting. Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business. This is where Odoo comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything. CRM, accounting, inventory, E commerce, HR and more. No more app overload, no more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business whether you are just start starting out or already scaling up. Plus, it's easy to use, customizable and designed to streamline every process so you can focus on what really matters running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for [e-mail] that's o d o o dot com.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple Eastern, CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. Know what is one of the most.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Read stories on the Bloomberg Anything related to Jeffrey Epstein. Yeah, yeah.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

It's an interesting story about Goldman Sachs in that regard.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Yeah. From a resignation of the top lawyer there to the resignation of one of the most powerful figures in the Middle East. We are all over the fallout from the latest batch of the Epstein files. Todd Gillespie is here. We have Jason Leopold next hour to really tell us what the steady outflow of information has been from these files and potential repercussions moving forward.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

All right. Also, I'm holding this up because this is Bloomberg Markets magazine. It's a February March issue and it is out. It asks should we be afraid of the big boom in private credit? The asset class is the subject of the latest issue of Bloomberg Markets Magazine. The editor is going to join us in just a few minutes. I do feel like credit in all its twists and turns is certainly top of mind for everybody.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Okay. Champagne ahead of Valentine's Day. That sounds nice.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Yeah.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

All right. Could cost you more due to those tariffs. The founder and CEO of one champagne company. Yeah, chocolate covered anything?

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

No, but they go, you know.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Oh, I don't know.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Have you not seen Pretty Woman?

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Okay. I'm trying to stay on track here.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Oh, right.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

This company is suing the Trump administration for what the founder and CEO says is $78,000 she is owed that she spent on tariffs last year.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Well, Supreme Court might have.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Remember who's saying that?

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Supreme Court, though.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Yeah, that's where it's going.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

All right. Lots to come over the next two hours. Do not go anywhere. First up though, a check on that trading day. Here is Amy Morrison for Charlie Pellet.

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

All right, thank you, Carol. Sources telling Bloomberg that SpaceX is pursuing a dual class share structure in its planned IPO this year. A two tier structure would give select shareholders stock with extra voting power, allowing them to dominate decision making. But it would also allow insiders like Elon Musk to maintain control of the company even with a minority stake. And you're right, tamer than expected inflation numbers spurred bigger bets on Fed rate cuts moving markets into the green. But just a little bit, just a little bit paring back some of those gains from earlier today. Right Now S&P 500 up a quarter percent. NASDAQ little changed on the upside. The Dow up about 210 of a percent. 10 year treasury yield at 4%. The two year yield at 3.4%. Let's check Bitcoin now. Oh, it's fine. Up almost 5%. Around $69,000. Traders now pricing a 50% chance of a third rate cut this year. CPI fell to a nearly five year low last month as apartment rental price growth slowed and gas prices fell. That offered some relief to Americans who are still dealing with sharp increases in costs of the past five years. Consumer prices are about 25% higher than they were five years ago. Ethan Davitt is global market strategist at Monetta Group Investment Advisors.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Certainly not just noise.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

We have to look at how this.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Is cascading through different sectors. It hit our sector just this week. Private wealth there is definitely a sell first, ask questions later type of mentality.

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

Money Fins, debits was on Bloomberg Open interest for on demand news 24 hours a day. Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Amy Morris. That's a Bloomberg business flash. We go back to Bloomberg Businessweek daily with Carol Massar and Tim Stinnac.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Hey, thanks for that update. Do appreciate it. Well, one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg Kathy Rummler leaving her position as Goldman Sachs top lawyer drawing to close a month long saga that the saw the investment bank staunchly defend her over previous associations with Jeffrey Epstein. We've got Todd Gillespie with us. He's Bloomberg News banking reporter. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive brokers studio. So her name has been associated with Jeffrey Epstein for four months at this point. But the bank changed its tune after the latest batch.

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

Well, apparently not, Tim. And in fact that's actually one of the most interesting things about this. David Solomon was on CNBC this morning.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Oh yeah. Just said fully supported her. Right, Right.

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

And she offered her resignation. And this is actually one of the things that is quite incredible to a lot of the partners and senior executives at Goldman is how staunchly the leadership continues to defend her. And there was in fact no contrition, no, you know, no acknowledgement of any wrongdoing at all about rumor's behavior from David Solomon this morning when he spoke on TV just before, by the way, he went to play golf alongside Ron DeSantis at Pebble Beach. So some people are suggesting that perhaps Goldman's response to this whole crisis and the two weeks or so that David Solomon has been battling this out essentially against the media and internally and perhaps even against his own psyche. Who knows, really, when it comes to David Solomon, sometimes some are really asking questions about his judgment now. And really that's where people in the next few days are going to start to turn their attention.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Who is asking those questions? Are employees internally. Did it become difficult for her internally because of this?

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

Yeah, I mean, I mean, certainly employees internally felt a lot of them couldn't necessarily raise their concerns to David Solomon, bearing in mind you know, he's someone who has consolidated power at this firm over the past few years away from its partnership structure and much more towards a sort of traditional top down CEO environment. You also have a management committee that he's expanded dramatically, which now has 46 people on it, way more than any other Wall street bank. Bank, which essentially, you know, when you talk about collaboration and everything, actually, in the end, one might argue it ends up consolidating power in the hands of, you know, the one CEO who's essentially at the top of that.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

All right, devil's advocate for a moment. Like some would say, well, what did she legally do wrong? Like, did she provide him any legal advice?

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

She certainly did, Kyle.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Yeah.

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

And in fact, one of the most incredible things this week that came out was revelations about emails and drop that showed how she essentially helped him suppress the media strategy and legal fight by Virginia Giuffre, who we all know, one of the most vocal defenders, sorry, vocal accusers of Jeffrey Epstein, who committed suicide last year. Bear in mind the story that we wrote a book.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Sorry, she wrote a book.

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

She did indeed write a book, yeah. That was posthumously published. Right. And she, you know, and throughout all of this, you can see these emails that show actually that how Rumler talks about relishing the potential opportunity if only she could have been the lawyer to depose her at the stand. She helps advise lawyers of Epstein on how to wage that campaign to stop her interview with Good Morning America from airing, which famously never aired and has still never read, you know, before she died. And so there are these moments here where people are starting to see these emails and then question more deeply at the firm in particular why Goldman was continuing to stand by her. And also what came up in this due diligence process that they said they conducted and that led them to such confidence in her.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

What do we know about her relationship with Jeffrey Epstein? Why was she so close to him?

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

Well, one thing that's clear throughout the emails is that he consistently started leaning on her for years for informal legal advice, for media strategy. She was also receiving things in return. Right. He was introducing her to people. He was advising her on, you know, getting a new job, for instance. She was, he was giving referrals to people like Larry Summers, you know, who was close to Sheryl Sandberg at Facebook when she was looking for a potential job there. And all through this, you see this, like, very transactional, reciprocal relationship between these two people who, you know, as lots of people have been troubled throughout these files. This is, you know, and, you know, many people have mentioned in this case in particular, you know, the plutocratic class that sort of comes and, you know, that their intimate levels of behavior that come out within these files are quite something. And I mean, it's important to say, you know, that she, you know, she says she's never done anything wrong. She's never done anything illegal. She says she's never represented Epstein in court or advocated on his behalf to the press or to any government officials.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

And yet, as we all remind that in 2008 is when he did the plea agreement and he was a registered sex offender. So at that point, anything that anybody does in terms of relationship is with that knowledge.

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. And I mean, one of the things that, you know, there's an op ed, for instance, that he was trying to get published in the Washington Post that she helped edit, that basically defended, you know, the strength of the plea agreement and the federal investigation that he was under back in 2008. She entered this relationship with him in around 2015. She entered this friendship with him. She calls it a friendship, you know, and says that she wants to get help him get rid of his legal troubles. And this continues and persists Even after the 2018 Miami Herald investigation which released, you know, accusations of abuse by 60 women. She ended up at his in court standing behind his lawyers during his arraignment.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Yeah. So some would say judgment comes into call, certainly. Todd, thank you so much for keeping us up to speed on this. Banking reporter at Bloomberg News. This is one of the most read, if not the most read story on the Bloomberg Terminal today.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Also one of the most read stories has to do with Space X considering a dual class share structure in its planned IPO this year. With us with what you need to know is Bloomberg tech co host Ed Ludlow. He Joins us from San Francisco at the dual class share structure. Nothing uncommon about that in Silicon Valley and you know, in media companies too, to be fair. Is this all about Elon maintaining control?

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

It's all about Elon maintaining control. I mean it's not surprising that, that this would be something Space X is considering. You know what I understand from sources and we did this story of Ryan Gould, right, is that it's being considered. I don't think they're as far as having decided the structure of an IPO, but the state of play with SpaceX anyway is that it's kind of already structured that way. Musk has a lot of the majority of influence and control, but he doesn't have a financial majority. So the cap table is quite diversified among all the names, you know, like Google and Fidelity and Founders Fund. But within that, in terms of power, in terms of votes as a private company, Musk's already there. And I just point out finally that he tried to do that previously with Tesla and it didn't work. And so I think there had been an underlying assumption that they would at least try with Space X.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

If you were sitting down, I don't know with Elon, what would you ask him about this?

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

Oh goodness, if I were sitting down with Elon. I mean it's something I think about day and night, you know, as it relates to voting control. The one reason it's not surprising is if you think about Elon, Musk stated motivations with Tesla and the compensation package. Right. So when we when the compensation package for Tesla and again people are going to get confused because we're jumping from Space X. Tesla, are they one and the same? Who knows? He always framed this as being not about money. He didn't care how much he was paid in the end he wanted to have enough voting power so that he could execute on what he thought his vision for the company was in the AI context. And with SpaceX the logic's very much the same. You have a company that's doing really well at launching rockets and payload for customers and has got a very successful so far Constellation based Internet service in Starlink. But he's ripping up the script, right? The future is space based data centers. And so the control part is for him to be able to do it.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

A catapult to the moon. That's what he wants. At Ludlow from Bloomberg Tech.

[Bloomberg Reporter (possibly Kyle or another Bloomberg journalist)]

That was Mars moon and then Mars.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Okay, yeah, that's what we do to check out that story. Ryan Gold story and more on the Bloomberg terminal. You are listening to and watching Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. Coming up after this.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc, SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comdisclosures Now I'd.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

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[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

The best performer in the S&P 500 Coinbase, up 16.8%. As we speak, volume is actually triple. The average company posted weak results, yet people are buying. I want to bring in Stacy Maria Schmall. Hi, Bloomberg News executive for crypto, payments and digital finance. Is this a signal? Yeah, I'm going to do this. I'm going to put you on the spot.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Do it.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Is this a signal that people think this is the bottom?

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

I think it's a signal that people hope it's the bottom. So one of the interesting things that we've been keeping an eye on is we talked the last time that I was here. Thanks for having me back.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

It was just a week ago and things have changed a lot since then.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

It's a lot of crypto stuff.

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

Folks really are looking for signs that even if it's not going to get better, it's not going to get worse. And one of the interesting things about the coinbase results yesterday was that there was this feeling of like, okay, like that was they had a rough quarter, everybody else had a rough quarter. A lot of the loss that they reported was based on like the mark to market value of Bitcoin. And so maybe, you know, coming into Q1 and Q2, that's as low as we're going to see it for the foreseeable future. And so even though you had various analysts and, you know, different folks on the sell side adjusting their price targets, it was still very much kind of like, okay, we Think now we're at a level that stuff may be oversold. And so let's like, let's not get out of control here.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

I'm glad you went there because I mean, you go back to the October high that we saw. I mean, Coinbase has fallen as crypto has fallen, right? And I mean it's down about 60% since then. So there's a lot of bad news factored in at point this, this point. And it's not like this, these results were terrible. Right. So that's just okay. Like you said, maybe the worst is.

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

The results were kind of, you know, they missed some estimates, but like not by a huge amount. And there were some like optimism about what, what might be coming in the next quarters. And I think one of the things, interestingly, you know, fintechs and digital asset companies aren't being punished by the market because they are a little bit outside of the AI narrative. They're a little bit outside of the YD need, billions of dollars in capital expenditure. And so, you know, they're really kind of benefiting from this idea of if you think that bitcoin has had a rough time, but the road ahead looks more positive, it's time to buy up some of these stocks.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Well, can I just say in the press release there was optimism from the coin based team about regulation and things and are they kind of right that that's going to make it better for anybody or can we not make that assumption?

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

I think there is very much the sense within the digital asset industry that there is a one remaining key piece of legislation that they are really desperately looking forward to, and that is what's been called the Clarity act, which would codify some elements of market structure and also make some final adjustments to how stablecoins are regulated and legislated. The problem for the digital asset industry is the banks and the crypto companies do not agree on how to move forward with some of those provisions. And that's been a real drag on both sentiment and prices across the market.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

When there is agreement, if there is agreement, does that change things markedly?

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

Absolutely. I mean, our own analysts on BI have said that, you know, companies like Coinbase and Robinhood will really benefit from like this, this agreement to go forward because one of the things that it removes is the uncertainty that if there's a change of administration, if Democrats to the White House, then you know, they will just undo the executive orders and everything else. So having things like actually codified into legislation really provides a much clearer path for the digital asset companies.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

So on back to Coinbase and then we can branch out a little bigger. If we think about Coinbase. Can we think about Coinbase like we think about Intercontinental Exchange or the Nasdaq?

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

I mean, I would say that Coinbase, much like Robinhood, has demonstrated a real commitment to, like diversifying in some of the ways that these other, like, you know, traditional exchanges have. I think they are doing some really interesting things around the fact that they are like, oh, okay, like how are we thinking about tokenization? How are we thinking about custody of different kinds of digital assets? Like, what are our relationships with the ETF providers in that particular vein? So from, you know, the analysts who are more bullish on the stock are really looking in like that forward looking looking direction of digital asset companies. Don't only think of them as a proxy for bitcoin, think of them as like fintechs in that broader sense.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Because if, you know, this is a company where transaction revenue accounts for the majority of revenue and then subscription and services is the minority of revenue and there are different segments and lines within each of those segments. But if we think about it, if people, if they're making money from transactions, people are buying and selling crypto no matter what the price of bitcoin is. So they're still making money even if the price of bitcoin is going down because those transactions are happening. Do more transactions happen when prices rise?

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

Really depends. So, you know, one of the things you sometimes see is that when prices are falling, you might have like more selling or people kind of sitting out on the sidelines or exiting completely. The bigger risk from some of the analysts that we've been talking to to crypto companies is people spending less, less money on transacting on crypto exchanges and more money on like the prediction markets. Right. So again, it's this idea of if you're a person who used to trade like meme stocks or you're into sports gambling and you're like, oh, like bitcoin and dogecoin and meme coins. This seems fun. And now you're like, or I could like be putting some money on poly marketing, putting some money on Kalshi. So it's, you know, like the competition is not so much is this person interested in like crypto for the sake of crypto. It's more like they have some discretionary income. Right. And there are more ways that you could be, you know, spending that than there were previously.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

So then how do you think about this? Because I feel like you and I have these conversations, Tim, a lot too. But I mean, are we still like, what will cryptocurrencies really be in terms, are they going to be this thing that totally changes how everybody and everything transacts or not necessarily deep existential questions on a Friday.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

I know, sorry, it's a three day weekend.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

We do have champagne later to make up for it. But like, do you know what I'm saying? Like, I just, I still don't know, you know, do we have to have the like, what does it mean for them, the big banks or the big financial firms or I don't know, just all the financial infrastructure that we have today. Does that mean they will likely be all a part of this too?

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

So there, there is absolutely a version of what you are describing, which is in fact the version that banks are preparing for in a lot of ways, which is that crypto becomes a traditional financial payments rail alongside like the swifts and the ACHs and everything else where it's just like so normalized that it's a way of either transacting or moving money across borders or trading certain types of assets and you don't even think about it. And it's just like built into the system. And one of the of the great ironies of that is it's like absolutely the opposite of what the people who came up with crypto.

[Christina Stambol (Founder and CEO of Farm Girl Flowers)]

Exactly.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Because to me that sounds like a lot of oversight and a lot of regulation and so then what?

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

But also potentially like way more volume. Right? Like different kinds of use cases and yeah, I think that that is to me what makes this beat so interesting. It's you can either have this perception that you are betting on Bitcoin because you think all of the world's government are going to fail, or you could have this perception that you think things like stablecoins are interesting because governments are going to need more ways to like monitor financial transactions across borders.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

This is why she's the best I know.

[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

Oh my gosh.

[Tim Stinnac (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

Stacey Maria Schmall, executive editor for Crypto Payments and Digital Finance for Bloomberg News. In here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, check out what she and the team do on the terminal.

[Carol Massar (Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host)]

This is the Bloomberg Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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[Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Executive for Crypto, Payments and Digital Finance)]

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