Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Mild Inflation Print Boosts Fed-Cut Bets
Date: February 13, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Notable Guests: Dr. Adam Posen (Peterson Institute), Christina Stambol (Farm Girl Flowers), Todd Gillespie (Bloomberg), Stacy Maria Schmall (Bloomberg News Crypto Editor), Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech)

Overview

This episode focuses on the latest U.S. inflation data, Fed policy, fiscal and demographic trends affecting the American and global economies, and key market stories. The hosts engage Dr. Adam Posen for dissection of the inflation print, expectations for future rate cuts, and deeper risks to the economy. Other segments explore consumer behavior around Valentine’s Day with Farm Girl Flowers’ CEO, the ongoing fallout from the Epstein/Goldman Sachs saga, implications of SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, and a spike in Coinbase shares, including the regulatory backdrop for crypto.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Economy, Inflation, and Fed Policy

Guest: Dr. Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics

• Take on the latest inflation print:
  • Posen urges investors not to overreact to minor deviations (+/- 0.1-0.2 points) in monthly inflation numbers, emphasizing broader trends over monthly volatility.
  • Key economic underpinnings: the labor market remains stable with solid job retention but not rapid growth; potential for significant stimulus ahead of midterms via tax checks and possible restoration of Obamacare subsidies.

“If you're plus or minus 0.1, 0.2 from expectation on any given month's print...you have to look at the bigger stories.” — Adam Posen (03:00)

• Risks of more fiscal stimulus:

  • Likelihood of further inflationary pressure if Congress passes more stimulative policies (e.g., pre-election checks, fiscal expansion).
  • Posen and Peter Orszag predict inflation could "exceed 4% by the end of 2026" (04:22), citing lagged impacts of tariffs, migration restrictions, and delayed business responses.

• Fed Leadership and Policy Risks:

  • Concern over a less reactive Fed, especially as political pressures mount for looser policy. Posen references nominee Kevin Warsh and Secretary Bessant as potential drivers of dovish policy, despite data suggesting otherwise.
  • Debate over whether effects from tariffs and anti-immigration moves are “one-time shocks” or persistent.
  • Possible upside from AI productivity gains, but Posen cautions that disinflation effects from tech adoption historically lag.

“Nominee Warsh, Governor Waller and others have said that some of these tariff and other effects are one time shocks...We'll see. That would be very unusual.” — Adam Posen (07:00)

• Biggest 'Realistic' Risks for the U.S. Economy:
  • In the near-term (3–12 months): High inflation is the principal risk, not unemployment or a China trade war.
  • Longer-term (1–2 years): Demographics, especially declining immigration and potential drop in labor force due to lack of childcare/healthcare supports.

“I think the realistic risk for the US in the next three to twelve months is probably inflation is the biggest risk.” — Adam Posen (09:25)

• Beyond 2 years: Balancing AI’s economic boost with employment dislocation; the economic profession, he says, has “no clear idea”.

2. U.S. Labor Force, Wealth Gaps & Sentiment

• Disconnect between economic data and public sentiment:
  • Posen notes that “the connection between surveys of how good people feel or how confident people feel has become much more tenuous in terms of linking it to actual economic outcomes.” (12:22)
  • Factors influencing sentiment include wealth inequality, “uncertainty,” and politics, rather than macro indicators alone.

3. Valentine's Day Spending & Supply Chain Realities

Guest: Christina Stambol, CEO, Farm Girl Flowers

• Valentine’s Day Trends:

  • Holiday expected to hit a record $29.1B in spending, with $200 average per shopper (16:20).
  • Farm Girl’s orders and average spends are up YOY, signaling healthy holiday consumption, but Mother’s Day remains the biggest floral holiday.

• Consumer Preferences:

  • Survey reveals most women don’t want traditional red roses; they prefer “bright, mixed, beautiful bouquets and thoughtful choices.” (19:43)
  • Delivery logistics: Saturday deliveries are problematic for small firms; recipients often prefer earlier weekday arrivals.

“Women don't want to get the flowers on Saturday. They want to get them earlier in the week so they can enjoy them.” — Christina Stambol (21:30)

• Tariff Impacts & U.S. Flower Industry:
  • Tariffs are raising costs on both imports and U.S. grown flowers (bulbs, fertilizer, insurance, labor), making domestic flowers up to 3–4x pricier than imports—even accounting for tariffs.
  • 80% of flower imports from Colombia; U.S. farms face steep production costs.

“A tulip is…three to four times more expensive to buy it here in the U.S....even with the tariffs because of what the farmers here are experiencing.” — Christina Stambol (24:00)

4. Goldman Sachs and the Epstein Files

Guest: Todd Gillespie, Bloomberg Banking Reporter

• Resignation of Kathy Rummler, Goldman’s Top Lawyer:

  • Sparked by continued revelations about her close relationship with Epstein, including legal advice provided, involvement in media strategy to quell negative coverage, and assistance with job referrals.
  • Internal and external criticism mounts over Goldman's handling and Rummler’s continued defense by CEO David Solomon.

• Debate over ethics and legal exposure:

  • Rummler claims she did "nothing illegal," but documentation shows active participation in Epstein’s efforts post-plea agreement.
  • Her entry into Epstein’s circle came well after his registered sex offender status (2015), and persisted after new abuse revelations (2018 Miami Herald).

5. SpaceX: Dual-Class Share Structure & IPO

Guest: Ed Ludlow, Bloomberg Tech

• IPO Structure Rumors:
  • SpaceX is considering a dual-class share setup to allow Elon Musk to maintain voting control—mirroring prior efforts with Tesla.
  • Existing private share structure already ensures Musk’s influence, despite a diversified cap table (Google, Fidelity, Founders Fund).

“The control part is for [Musk] to be able to do it.” — Ed Ludlow (37:32)

6. Crypto Market Momentum and Coinbase Rally

Guest: Stacy Maria Schmall, Executive Editor for Crypto/Payments, Bloomberg News

• Coinbase Surge after Weak Results:

  • Coinbase stock up 17%; market appears to be “hoping this is the bottom” after a tough quarter for crypto (42:34).
  • Sentiment buoyed by belief that many negative factors are priced in, and losses tied mostly to bitcoin’s recent slide.

• Regulatory Watch:

  • The digital asset sector anticipates the "Clarity Act" to codify market rules and stablecoin frameworks, which would help firms like Coinbase and Robinhood by reducing regulatory uncertainty.

“There is very much the sense within the digital asset industry that there is one remaining key piece of legislation ... that's been called the Clarity Act.” — Stacy Maria Schmall (45:03)

• Coinbase’s Business Model and the Evolving Crypto Landscape:
  • Most revenue from transaction fees, but company is evolving towards a broader financial/fintech role, exploring tokenization and partnerships with ETF providers.
  • The future could see crypto used alongside existing payment rails (SWIFT, ACH), increasing regulation and volume but moving away from the original ‘decentralized’ ethos.

“Crypto becomes a traditional financial payments rail...so normalized that it’s a way...and you don’t even think about it. One of the great ironies...it’s absolutely the opposite of what the people who came up with crypto.” — Stacy Maria Schmall (48:54)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “If you're plus or minus 0.1, 0.2 from expectation...you have to look at the bigger stories.”
  — Dr. Adam Posen (03:00)

• “Inflation could...potentially exceed 4% by the end of 2026.”
  — Carol Massar, referencing Adam Posen/Peter Orszag column (04:22)

• “Nominee Warsh, Governor Waller...some of these tariff and other effects are one time shocks....That would be very unusual.”
  — Dr. Adam Posen (07:00)

• “The connection between surveys of how good people feel or how confident people feel has become much more tenuous...”
  — Dr. Adam Posen (12:22)

• “Women don't want to get the flowers on Saturday. They want to get them earlier in the week so they can enjoy them.”
  — Christina Stambol (21:30)

• “A tulip is…three to four times more expensive to buy it here in the U.S....even with the tariffs.”
  — Christina Stambol (24:00)

• “Coinbase...is this a signal that people think this is the bottom?”
  — Tim Stenovec (42:54)

• “Crypto becomes a traditional financial payments rail...[that’s] absolutely the opposite of what the people who came up with crypto [envisioned].”
  — Stacy Maria Schmall (48:54)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Inflation print & Fed outlook with Adam Posen: 02:47 – 13:16
• Valentine’s Day/flower industry insights: 17:02 – 24:13
• Goldman Sachs/Epstein files discussion: 27:30 – 35:52
• SpaceX share structure & control: 36:04 – 38:47
• Coinbase, crypto market & regulation: 42:30 – 50:17

Memorable Moments

• Posen on policy risks:
  “There’s room for me to be plenty wrong, but I think we’re going to end up [with] pretty high inflation.” (08:50)
• Farm Girl CEO on Saturday deliveries:
  “It’s horrible... The only day worse is Sunday.” (20:57)
• Bloomberg on Coinbase optimism:
  “It was still very much kind of like, OK, we think now we're at a level that stuff may be oversold.” — Stacy Maria Schmall (43:17)
• Stacy Maria Schmall on irony in crypto’s future:
  “It's absolutely the opposite of what the people who came up with crypto [envisioned].” (49:31)

Conclusion

This episode is a robust, wide-ranging survey of economic and financial trends—from Fed policy and political influences on inflation to the micro-view of how tariffs affect the flower business. The discussion also includes timely coverage of major news stories (Epstein/Goldman), market structure (SpaceX), and the ever-evolving crypto landscape. The episode is data-driven, features candid insights, and showcases Bloomberg’s ability to synthesize macro and micro trends for a global business audience.