Bloomberg Businessweek: MIT's Microscopic Health-Tech Tools in Action

Episode Date: October 17, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Guest: Lauren Goodwin, Economist and Chief Market Strategist, New York Life Investments

Overview

This episode primarily offers a high-level analysis of the current financial market landscape, with a focus on the growing influence and scrutiny of private credit, the evolving narrative around artificial intelligence (AI) in the tech sector, macroeconomic outlooks including inflation and stagflation risks, and portfolio diversification strategies. Economist Lauren Goodwin joins the hosts for an in-depth exchange on these themes, providing both data-driven observations and candid personal assessments.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Private Credit & Market Risk

Timestamps: 01:52–04:46

• The episode commences with a discussion about the vulnerabilities and oversight issues in the private credit markets, particularly in light of recent warnings from financial leaders such as Jamie Dimon.
• Goodwin notes the rise of private capital stepping in after banks' post-crisis retrenchments, highlighting similarities and risks compared to traditional banking.
  • Quote: “There is some really just high quality lending, very well backed, normal activity happening and there’s some more challenging fraudulent activity happening.” — Lauren Goodwin [02:38]
• Monitoring private credit requires closer scrutiny because default rates and other key metrics can have less standard definitions than in public markets.
• The ongoing shift in the lending landscape is seen as critical to the broader economy, likely to feature more prominently in investment discussions going forward.
  • Quote: “You have to be much more careful with things like default rates or some of the more standard areas of data that are going to have different definitions depending on who your lender is.” — Lauren Goodwin [03:08]

2. Shifting Sentiment Around Artificial Intelligence

Timestamps: 04:46–06:34

• Recognition of a recent surge in skepticism toward AI, despite previous excitement and ongoing investment.
• Goodwin observes heightened questioning after significant spending announcements by Nvidia and OpenAI, raising doubts about the sector's earnings sustainability.
  • Quote: “I think the catalyst ... was really this sort of Roy Boss spending announcements out of Nvidia and OpenAI that have have raised questions about the sustainability of the great earnings capacity that we’ve seen in AI.” — Lauren Goodwin [05:18]
• She is monitoring for signs of "bubble conditions," especially if tech firms move from self-funding to raising debt for AI investments, noting this transition is still in its early stages.
• Despite strong recent revenues from big tech companies, a market correction is seen as plausible, though Goodwin maintains that overall market tailwinds—like Fed rate cuts and easing quantitative tightening—are currently stronger than the headwinds.

3. US Economy: Inflation, Stagflation, and Policy Uncertainty

Timestamps: 07:24–09:01

• Goodwin offers her macroeconomic forecast:
  • Moderate growth ahead (projected <1.5% GDP growth).
  • Core inflation to remain sticky (~3%—slightly above consensus), leading to a “stagflation light” scenario.
  • The lasting effect of tariffs on prices will become more pronounced around the holiday season and into the following year.
  • She frames the outlook as “not an overly bearish view on the US economy,” noting the interplay between uncertain inflation and potential productivity gains driven by technology.
  • Quote: “That’s a stagflation light scenario … not an overly bearish view on the US Economy, but it’s one where the Fed and the market are grappling with these same questions.” — Lauren Goodwin [07:54]

4. Diversification & Gold's New Role

Timestamps: 09:01–11:40

• The panel discusses asset allocation and the function of gold in modern portfolios.
• Goodwin advocates for diversification as a more prominent theme, contrasting the last 15 years when US large-cap tech outperformed most alternatives.
  • Closing international underweights, adding gold, and commodities are among the approaches being considered by investors.
• Goodwin is personally bullish on gold as a new “asset class,” though she cautions most individual investors not to overweight gold due to its lack of yield.
  • Quote: “Gold has become a new asset class and … we will continue to see the price of gold rise in the coming years.” — Lauren Goodwin [10:10]
  • She attributes the increasing gold demand to central banks and corporations hedging against political volatility, especially post-Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, amid stagnant supply and momentum (“FOMO”) flows.
    • Quote: “There’s structural factors related to central banks ... trading dollars for gold. That’s accelerated this year … in response to some of the political volatility we’ve seen.” — Lauren Goodwin [10:47]

5. Market Mood: Optimism or Caution?

Timestamps: 11:47–12:15

• In closing, Goodwin characteristically leans constructive but stops short of outright optimism:
  • Quote: “My economist brain will always want to be pessimistic, but I am … I’m constructive. I think that we have some, some tailwind economy and markets that get us through another nine months.” — Lauren Goodwin [11:57]

Notable Quotes

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:38 | Lauren Goodwin | "There is some really just high quality lending, very well backed, normal activity happening and there's some more challenging fraudulent activity happening." | | 03:08 | Lauren Goodwin | "You have to be much more careful with things like default rates or some of the more standard areas of data that are going to have different definitions depending on who your lender is." | | 05:18 | Lauren Goodwin | "I think the catalyst ... was really this sort of Roy Boss spending announcements out of Nvidia and OpenAI that have have raised questions about the sustainability of the great earnings capacity that we've seen in AI." | | 07:54 | Lauren Goodwin | "That’s a stagflation light scenario … not an overly bearish view on the US Economy, but it’s one where the Fed and the market are grappling with these same questions." | | 10:10 | Lauren Goodwin | "Gold has become a new asset class and … we will continue to see the price of gold rise in the coming years." | | 10:47 | Lauren Goodwin | "There’s structural factors related to central banks ... trading dollars for gold. That’s accelerated this year … in response to some of the political volatility we’ve seen." | | 11:57 | Lauren Goodwin | "My economist brain will always want to be pessimistic, but I am … I’m constructive. I think that we have some, some tailwind economy and markets that get us through another nine months." |

Segment Timestamps

• 01:52 — Introduction of Lauren Goodwin & Market Sentiment
• 03:24 — Private Credit, Risks, and Regulatory Questions
• 04:46 — AI Hype Cycle and Investment Skepticism
• 07:24 — US Economy Outlook and Inflation Concerns
• 09:01 — Portfolio Diversification & the Case for Gold
• 11:47 — Market Outlook: Constructive with Caution

Summary for Listeners

This episode delivers pragmatic, well-rounded insights surrounding financial system vulnerabilities (especially in private credit), the evolving conversation about AI as both an economic driver and a sector with ‘bubble watch’ potential, and the importance of portfolio strategies such as diversification and including gold. Lauren Goodwin’s balance of realism and data-driven optimism, coupled with concrete market observations, provides actionable thought starters for investors and market observers navigating an uncertain but opportunity-rich environment.