Bloomberg Businessweek – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Ontario to Pause Anti-Tariff Ad Campaign After Trump’s Ire
Date: October 24, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec, David Westin
Guests: Laura Dylan Cain (Bloomberg News Ottawa Bureau Chief), Michael McKee (Bloomberg TV & Radio Economic Correspondent), Katie Kaminsky (Alpha Simplex Group), Drew Mattis (MetLife Investment Management), Amy Rubenstein (Clear Investment Group)

Overview

This episode examines the escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada following an Ontario government ad campaign critical of U.S. tariffs, which triggered President Trump to halt trade negotiations. The episode explores the political context and economic repercussions, dissects recent inflation data amid a U.S. government shutdown, and discusses developments in the distressed commercial real estate market.

Key Discussion Points

1. US-Canada Trade Tensions and the Ontario Ad Campaign

• Trigger Event

  • Ontario launched a major U.S. ad campaign criticizing American tariffs on Canadian goods.
  • President Trump reacted by ending negotiations, calling the ad "fake" ([03:05]).
  • Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced via social media the ad campaign would pause on Monday after discussions with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney ([02:19]).

• Insight from Laura Dylan Cain

  • Trump initially had a muted response but later expressed anger, surprising the Canadian side ([04:17]).
  • The Ontario government spent $75 million (CAD), and Trump's response amplified the campaign: "If their goal was to get U.S. attention to this ad, they have done their job... The views are way up ever since Trump made this announcement. So well done, Canada." – Laura Dylan Cain ([04:17])

• The Streisand Effect

  • Tim Stenovec: "It's the Streisand effect, truly." ([05:17])
  • Laura Dylan Cain agrees: "It is definitely the Streisand effect."
  • The ad will still run during the first two World Series games before being paused ([02:49]).

• Substantive Trade Issues

  • The main friction points: U.S. sectoral tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber—especially hurting Ontario ([06:18]).
  • Progress was reportedly being made on a steel/aluminum deal, possibly in exchange for more Canadian energy exports. Talks were disrupted by Trump’s reaction to the ad ([06:18]).

• Political Dynamics & Mark Carney’s Strategy

  • Mark Carney, as PM, aims to reduce Canada’s economic reliance on the U.S. while acknowledging practical constraints ([07:40]).
  • He has stated, "the old relationship between the U.S. and Canada is over" and plans to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade ([07:40]).
  • Contrasts between Carney’s and Ford’s approach: Carney is diplomatic and pragmatic, Ford is more ‘populist’ and confrontational ([09:15]).

Notable Quotes:

• "Mark Carney has said multiple times that the old relationship between the U.S. and Canada is over." – Laura Dylan Cain ([07:40])
• "Doug Ford has really advocated punching back. He talks tough. He's kind of a populist in some ways. He can be a bit of a mirror, a Canadian mirror image of Trump..." – Laura Dylan Cain ([09:15])
• "It was surprising that [Trump] then cited this ad in what seemed like...an angry truth social post about the ad." – Laura Dylan Cain ([04:17])

2. Inflation, Fed Policy, & the Government Shutdown

• Current US Government Shutdown

  • The shutdown has stymied the release of some government data, but an important inflation print was still published due to required Social Security cost-of-living adjustments ([13:45], [15:26]).

• Inflation Data

  • Michael McKee: “It was a slightly softer print. But... services prices were still rising, with a big exception for home prices...” ([15:51])
  • Specifics: Rent increase stabilized, used car prices dropped, but furniture and other tariffed goods rose in price—indicating that tariffs are starting to bleed through ([15:51]).

• Fed Rate Cut Expectations

  • Debate over the size of Fed rate cuts: Most guests agree 25 basis points is likely, not 50 ([18:10]).
  • Katie Kaminsky: "The less likelihood of a shift in policy is what has kind of soothed the markets right now." ([19:01])

Notable Quotes:

• “You want to get on [Bloomberg] Surveillance, you have to be outrageous if you want to talk the truth.” – Michael McKee ([18:10])
• "I do think it kind of relieved the market from concerns. I think the bigger shocks would be if you had any sort of shift in policy." – Katie Kaminsky ([19:01])

3. Economic Signals: Yield Curve, Consumer Health, and the K-Shaped Economy

• Yield Curve and Recession Warnings

  • The inverted yield curve may not signal recession as reliably as in the past due to unique factors (fiscal spending, healthy consumer balance sheets) ([19:29]).
  • Campbell Harvey, who popularized the yield curve signal, and Michael McKee both suggest not to rely on it currently ([20:16], [20:40]).

• K-Shaped Economy

  • Richer "top end" consumers seem insulated, but stress is appearing.
  • Drew Mattis: “Upper income consumers are increasingly saying that their real incomes are expected to decline over the next year and their job separation anxiety is actually quite high..." ([24:23])
  • Evidence suggests service sector spending is rolling off, which could indicate an economic turn ([25:42]).

Notable Quotes:

• "I think the top end is doing just fine...It's the people who are on fixed income, right, and low wages who are struggling now because inflation is still going up..." – Michael McKee ([21:09])

4. The Impact of Tariffs

• Tariff Pass-Through
  • Tariffs are leading to some pass-through in prices, especially in goods like furniture.
  • Drew Mattis: “It's not going to be a full pass through...it's going to be a one-time adjustment and the Fed should look through it.” ([27:25])
  • Credit card surcharges are another “hidden” inflation concern ([27:25]).

5. Distressed Real Estate & Credit Markets

• Distressed Multifamily Sector
  • Amy Rubenstein: There’s "a ton of opportunity" in distressed multifamily real estate, especially as sellers walk away from their equity ([32:49]).
  • Bank spreads narrowing, thanks to both recent Fed rate cuts and the influx of private debt capital. Deals are focused on secondary and tertiary markets (e.g., St. Louis, Tuscaloosa) ([36:09]).
  • Primary markets like D.C. still see deals, but hot growth markets like Austin or Nashville are less attractive due to overinflation ([36:28]).
  • She notes stress is higher among lower-income renters, with higher evictions and delinquencies post-Covid ([38:22], [38:46]); however, no signs of overall recession in the rental sector yet ([39:00]).

Notable Quotes:

• "We have seen a lot of distress over the last couple years and continue to see it. Although I think we might have bounced off the bottom and might be starting to come back." – Amy Rubenstein ([32:49])
• "We tend to stay away from California right now because we just don't get cash flow there. So that ends up being an appreciation market." – Amy Rubenstein ([36:51])

Memorable Moments & Quotes with Timestamps

• [05:17] Tim Stenovec: "It's the Streisand effect, truly."
• [07:40] Laura Dylan Cain: "Mark Carney has said multiple times that the old relationship between the U.S. and Canada is over..."
• [09:15] Laura Dylan Cain: "Doug Ford has really advocated punching back...a Canadian mirror image of Trump..."
• [15:51] Michael McKee: "It was a slightly softer print. But...services prices were still rising..."
• [18:10] Michael McKee: "You want to get on Surveillance, you have to be outrageous if you want to talk the truth."
• [24:23] Drew Mattis: "...upper income consumers are increasingly saying that their real incomes are expected to decline over the next year..."
• [32:49] Amy Rubenstein: "...there's a ton of opportunity [in distressed real estate] right now..."

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• US-Canada Trade Drama: 02:01 – 10:29
• Inflation Data & Fed Reaction: 13:34 – 20:41
• K-Shaped Economy & Consumers: 21:03 – 28:30
• Distressed Real Estate Analysis: 31:34 – 39:08

Summary

This episode offers an in-depth look at how political posturing and social media rhetoric can derail international trade negotiations—with Ontario’s anti-tariff ad campaign unexpectedly halting progress between the U.S. and Canada. The discussions underscore the persistent challenges of tariffs, economic dependencies, and the diverging strategies of Canadian leaders. The hosts and expert guests also analyze recent U.S. inflation data amidst a federal shutdown, debate the reliability of the yield curve, assess the health of American consumers (especially in a K-shaped recovery), and dig into opportunities and stress in distressed real estate markets. The tone throughout is insightful and conversational, with pointed observations and memorable soundbites from both journalists and their expert guests.