Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: Payrolls at US Companies Fall by Most Since 2023, ADP Says

Date: December 3, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Guests: Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. & Canada Economist), Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader), Scott Sanborn (CEO, Lending Club), Amy Rubenstein (CEO, Clear Investment Group), Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Sr. Analyst)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into fresh economic data signaling labor market weakness, in particular a major drop in private payrolls as reported by ADP, and a broader look at the U.S. economy as we approach the year’s final Fed meeting. Top Bloomberg reporters and industry leaders assess the likely path of interest rates, retail sector trends (with the consumer in focus), the evolving lending landscape, and the state of multifamily real estate amid persistent macro headwinds.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The U.S. Economy and Fed Expectations

Guest: Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics

• Labor market & ISM Services:
  • "All of the data that we got today was pretty bad. We had layoffs as reported by ADP in the month of November ..." (02:23)
  • ISM Services surprised to the upside, but due to "slowing supply chains ... a very peculiar reason."
  • New orders weakening, employment declining; import prices flat; manufacturing output stagnant.
  • These data culminate in a "pretty robust coalition" likely supporting a 25bp Fed rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, but expect internal division on the committee: "That's where I expect to see a lot of dissent and a lot of division among the committee." (03:08)
• Outlook for the Fed and 2026:
  • Expectation is a 25bp cut, but broader hawkishness entering 2026: "The incoming cohort of FOMC voters from the regional banks are actually going to be quite a bit more hawkish in 2026 than they have been this year." (12:36)

Notable Quotes

• "It’s just sort of a tenuous balance that you’re walking in the economy now." (08:34, Stuart Paul)
• "It’s no wonder why policymakers are going to be pushing for a rate cut because you’re hoping that looser credit conditions will help to alleviate some of the pressure that consumers are feeling..." (08:34, Stuart Paul)
• "I wouldn’t be surprised to see other FOMC participants keeping their dots a quarter point higher than where we end the year..." (12:22, Stuart Paul)

2. North American Trade Dynamics

• USMCA & Canada’s stance:
  • Canadian negotiators "waiting for the US and Mexico to sort out trade and border disputes … before Canada actually gets to come to the table." (03:56, Stuart Paul)
  • Canada currently content, tariffs low, bigger issue is slow domestic demand and labor market weakness.
  • Expect "some more definitive deal points" to emerge Q2 2026, potentially accelerated by Canadian PM Carney visiting the White House. (05:23)

3. The Consumer: Retail Earnings & Behavior

Guests: Emily Cohn (Bloomberg), Stuart Paul

• Macy’s & Dollar Tree:
  • Macy’s: Volatile shares, strong performance YTD but forecast signals caution.
    • "I think the thing that brought shares down initially this morning was a disappointing profit forecast ... we had the CEO tell us this morning a cautious consumer." (06:29, Emily Cohn)
  • Dollar Tree:
    • "They’re seeing middle to high income shoppers trading down to Dollar Tree ... consumers are still spending, but they're looking for value." (07:35, Emily Cohn)
• Broader Consumer Trends:
  • Shift to value, price sensitivity is increasing.
  • Split-screen economy: Wealthier consumers are trading down; caution is widespread but spending continues.
  • Black Friday & Cyber Monday results remain to be seen, with retailers like Kroger, Five Below, and Ulta reporting later in the week.

Notable Quotes

• "Consumers are still spending, but they’re looking for value and they're looking for places where the price is right. And Dollar Tree definitely fits in that better category." (07:35, Emily Cohn)
• "If you’re offering something unique to the consumer … you’re still able to bring in consumers." (08:03, Host citing Dana Telsey)
• "Cautious consumers ... they're spending, but they're being careful, they're being cautious, they're making choices, they're trading down." (09:43, Co-host)

4. The Lending Landscape: Lending Club’s Insights

Guest: Scott Sanborn, CEO

• Lending Club’s customer:
  • "We serve a customer base we call the middle majority ... high income, heavy users of credit ... about a third of the US population, close to half the credit wallet." (19:57, Scott Sanborn)
  • Average income $125k, with most users in $80k–$200k range. (20:45)
• Credit quality & underwriting:
  • "We’re the largest eater of our own cooking ... lower delinquencies than the rest of the industry …" (21:22, Scott Sanborn)
  • Constantly running >200 tests on products, pricing, and targeting for disciplined credit quality, "like a duck on a pond … we’re doing a lot of work underneath." (22:54)
  • Focus on debt consolidation loans, especially targeting credit card consolidation at historically high interest rates (80% of business).
    • "We're going to save you 700 basis points. Oh, and by the way, check all the credit cards ... we're going to pay them directly." (24:15)
• Why credit card rates are so high:
  • Most cardholders "don’t even know what the interest rate is ... cards have been able [to keep rates high]." (25:51, Scott Sanborn)
• Growth & product adjacencies:
  • Expanding into home improvement and elective medical finance, using recent acquisitions for better control and distribution of loan proceeds. (27:40)
• State of the consumer:
  • "The consumer we serve is demonstrating themselves to be remarkably resilient … but we'll acknowledge the sentiment isn't great." (29:49, Scott Sanborn)

Notable Quotes

• "We’re the largest holder of lending club loans. We care very deeply about the performance of the credit and credit is always evolving." (21:22)
• "Our largest use cases for people who already have debt, credit card debt most notably, which at this point more than half of all Americans are carrying, they're carrying it at really high rates, 23% interest rate, its highest they've ever been in history." (24:15)
• "They [credit card users] don’t even know what the interest rate is. … Half that say they do, more than half of them are wrong." (25:51)

5. Multifamily Real Estate & Mid-market Distress

Guest: Amy Rubenstein, Clear Investment Group

• State of the distressed market:
  • The "K-shaped economy" is visible—"higher end tenants doing very, very well … some of your lower income tenants ... struggling a bit more." (36:48)
  • Labor shortages in construction (driven in part by immigration policy and deportations) are acute.
  • Strong buying opportunities now due to distress among less experienced or overextended operators.
  • Distinction between 'market' distress (rate, expense, delinquency strain leading to price adjustments) and 'operator' distress (those who over-leveraged or lack experience).
• Helping tenants stay on track:
  • Emphasis on financial literacy and partnership:
    • "We've tried to start getting creative on different ways to help tenants keep up with their rent ... teaching budgeting classes." (37:09)
    • This is a new trend, only emerging in the last few years.
• Affordable housing:
  • More opportunity in rehabilitation of existing stock than ground-up construction. “We see a better opportunity in rehabbing and rehabilitating as opposed to ground-up construction, where you need a lot of government subsidies ..." (40:47)
  • Best geographies: Atlanta, the Midwest (Ohio, Indiana, Alabama, Illinois). "We love Ohio and Indiana. Right now we're buying in Alabama ... Columbus, Cleveland." (40:06)

Notable Quotes

• "We are still feeling inflationary pricing and we're feeling a little bit of a lack of labor ... a product of deportations and not having great immigration policies right now." (33:49, Amy Rubenstein)
• "It’s a win-win for everybody. If people can prioritize their finances and get their rent paid and stay in their houses, it’s better for us ... it’s better for them." (38:13, Amy Rubenstein)
• "We see a better opportunity in rehabbing and rehabilitating as opposed to ground-up construction..." (40:54, Amy Rubenstein)

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Consumer Price Sensitivity: "When I see rotation to a lower end retailer like Dollar Tree, it speaks to the price sensitivity of consumers ..." (08:34, Stuart Paul)
• Sector Parallels: (On tenants' financial education) "This is a new trend for us ... only emerging in the last few years." (37:52, Amy Rubenstein)
• Political Tensions at the Fed: "It’s going to be one where you’re gonna have some pretty dramatic headlines ... when he [Hassett] gets questions from ... Senator Warren ... but when it comes time to actually counting the votes ... he gets his shot if that’s what the White House ultimately decides to do." (14:18, Stuart Paul)

Segment Timestamps

• Fed/ADP/ISM/USMCA (Stuart Paul): 02:04–05:53
• Retail Earnings, Consumer Caution (Emily Cohn, Stuart Paul): 06:13–10:56
• Fed Watch, Leadership Transition & Outlook (Stuart Paul): 11:24–16:22
• Lending Club: Consumer credit health, strategy (Scott Sanborn, with Herman Chan): 19:26–30:15
• Distressed Multifamily Real Estate, Affordable Housing (Amy Rubenstein): 32:45–41:28

Conclusion

The episode provides a nuanced, data-rich portrait of a U.S. economy under stress yet showing resilience:

• Downshifts in payrolls are increasing pressure on the Fed to cut rates, while internal disagreements are likely to become more visible.
• Consumers are spending but being choosier—trading down, seeking value, and cautious even at higher income levels.
• Credit remains accessible to the "middle majority," but only at persistently high rates, and financial literacy/intervention is now a rising theme in both lending and real estate landlord roles.
• The real estate market is bifurcated—opportunities abound for investors prepared to handle distress and for those willing to invest in existing properties, rather than undertake costly new construction, especially outside major markets.

End Note:
For listeners eager to get a sense of the economy across macro, Main Street, and household levels, and to hear from leaders wrestling with these realities day-to-day, this episode encapsulates the challenges and opportunities defining late 2025.