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- [00:02]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
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- [00:31]
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- [01:34]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts Radio News.
- [01:41]
This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massey and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.
- [02:04]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
For more with us on how the U.S. economy is doing, we've got Bloomberg Economics, U.S. and Canada Economist Stuart Paul. He joins us here in the Bloomberg businessweek studio. So we are one week out from the last FOMC decision by the Fed this year. The data that we're getting now, the data that we get between now and then, will it do anything to change the thinking about an expected 25 basis point rate cut?
- [02:24]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
I don't think that it'll do anything to change whether or not we will get a cut. I think that the only thing that it can change is what the coalition of voters looks like. Basically. Basically all of the data that we got today was pretty bad. We had layoffs as reported by ADP in the month of November we saw ISM services. Yes, it's a prize to the upside, but it's a prize because of slowing supply chains. Like a very peculiar reason for ISM to surprise to the upside. We saw new orders that were weakening, employment that continued to decline. In the ISM Services report, we saw import prices that were flat, basically. So that gives a little bit of room for the Fed to consider cuts because tariff pass through is slow. And the final thing that we saw was September's industrial production numbers with manufacturing output basically flat. And so all of it just sort of points to this final Fed decision for the year looking like it's going to be made by a pretty robust coalition in my view. When we get the summary of economic projections in December, that's where I expect to see a lot of dissent and a lot of division among the committee.
- [03:30]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
You know, we've been talking to Joe Matthew on Balance of Power about usmca, the trade deal that replaced nafta. You obviously follow the Canadian economy. I mean, in the past this has been an important economy for the US US has been an important economy for the, for, for Canada. Excuse me. So how are you thinking also too about where trade is kind of settling between what has been really important trading partners for the United States?
- [03:57]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
Well, I think that the thing that's most important to remember from the Canadians perspective in the context of USMCA is that Canadian negotiators are basically going to be waiting for the US and Mexico to sort out trade and border disputes, trade and border deals, for example, how much security Mexico should be deploying to the US Southern border before Canada actually gets to come to the table to discuss its own trade relationship. Right now the average effective tariff rate on Canadian Canadian exports to the US is in the low single digits, you know, three to four.
- [04:32]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Not really.
- [04:32]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
Yeah, because of how many carve outs there are and because of, you know, the importance of the US as an energy export market for Canada. All the energy just flows through the United States. Canada is right now relatively content just to wait. The bigger issue for Canada right now is dealing with pretty lackluster domestic output and domestic demand. The labor market has softened materially over the summer. It looks like there's a little bit of a glimmer of hope there right now it seems as though, excuse me, trade is sort of normalizing.
- [05:06]
Of course, the second quarter was really, really rough. We saw an outperformance in the third quarter. But trade balances are starting to normalize and any sort of negotiation is just going to be on hold until the US and Mexico can sort out their differences.
- [05:20]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Okay, so just a realistic timeline for what that could be.
- [05:24]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
I think that in earnest we're going to start seeing some important talking points rolled out in the second quarter of 2026. Of course there any sort of negotiation can be sped up by let's say Carney, Prime Minister Carney visiting the White House. He's already been to the US Now I think twice so far since he took the leadership role. But right now I'm expecting to see some more definitive deal points getting rolled out in the second quarter of next year.
- [05:54]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
It's just kind of wild. I thought we were kind of we're not done with trade. I know we're not done with trade, but it just keeps creeping back. One of the other things that we've been talking a lot about are retail earnings this week and over the last couple of weeks. Nations retail companies continue to report out earnings amid the holiday shopping season now underway. Stuart's going to stay with us. Want to get to though, Tim, some of the earnings we got today.
- [06:14]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Yeah. Let's bring in Emily Cohn. She's Bloomberg News consumer team leader. She joins us here. Here in studio. So I'm a little confused about what's going on with Macy's because shares initially fell after the company reported earnings forecasts that disappointed investors. But now we're seeing them up 2%. What's going on with Macy's? What do we learn?
- [06:30]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
I mean Macy's basically had a good report, solid lead up to the holiday season. I think the shares are volatile. I think the thing that brought shares down initially this morning was a disappointing profit forecast. And I think that that speaks to we had the CEO tell us this morning a cautious consumer.
- [06:52]
So they're being you know, a little bit conservative with their forecast. I think that initially disappointed investors. But all in all it is a pretty good report for the company. I think they're also their stocks up 34% this year. So I think anything a little bit.
- [07:08]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Disappointing might percent swing from high to.
- [07:11]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Low is a lot.
- [07:12]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
It's a lot.
- [07:12]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
It's like a confusing investor or a confused investor, right?
- [07:16]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Yeah, a little bit.
- [07:17]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Yeah.
- [07:17]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
Yeah. But I do think it comes on the backdrop of really strong performance this year.
- [07:23]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Just throw dollar tree. They reported better than expected profit. They also raised their full year earnings outlook and we saw that stock rallying in today's session. So a good report. And what does it say about what type of consumer? Yeah, for sure.
- [07:36]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
I mean this is the kind of store that does well in this kind of economy. Right. They said on their earnings call they're seeing middle to high income shoppers trading down to dollar tree. That's good news for A store like this, and it continues to paint this P that we saw last week and the week before, which is this split screen picture of how the consumer is doing. Consumers are still spending, but they're looking for value and they're looking for places where the price is right. And Dollar Tree definitely fits in that better category.
- [08:03]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
So, Stuart, come on back in here and just give us your take on how the US Consumer is doing in the context of the retail earnings that we continue to hear about. To Emily's point, consumers trading down, higher end consumers trading down. That's good news in an environment such as this. For a company like Dollar Tree, we had Dana Telsey in earlier this week and she basically said, listen, if you're offering something unique to the consumer, like if you're a Levi's, for example, if you have a marketing campaign that is unique, you're still able to bring in consumers. How do you characterize the environment?
- [08:34]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
It's interesting when I read. So of course I think about the economy mostly from the top down. And I enjoy when I get to participate in a roundtable with somebody like Emily who provides some insight about the broader economy from the bottom up. And what's interesting is when I see rotation to a lower end retailer like Dollar Tree, it speaks to the price sensitivity of consumers. And then when we look at some of the more macroeconomic data, we see that firms are struggling to pass through some of the costs of tariffs. A lot of firms are reporting that they're getting squeezed in terms of profitability. Again, this is when I zoom out to the macroeconomic level. We're seeing squeezed profits in the aggregate data because a lot of the cost of tariffs are sitting with those producers. When you have consumers that are especially price sensitive, it's just sort of a tenuous balance that you're walking in the economy now. It's no wonder why policymakers are going to be pushing for a rate cut because you're hoping that looser credit conditions will help to alleviate some of the pressure that consumers are feeling so that you can continue to have that expansion. But right now it's just characteristic of a sort of tenuous balance in the broader macro economy.
- [09:43]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Yeah, I also feel a characteristic, and Emily, come on back in here, is that we are constantly hearing, even from retailers that do well. Right. I think even Wal Mart, that there's like a cautious consumer out there, I mean, cautious consumers. So they're spending, but they're being careful, they're being cautious, they're making choices, they're trading down. Is that a fair narrative takeaway.
- [10:03]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
I think that's exactly right. And I think that's what we heard from Tony Spring this morning where, you know, Macy's generally it's a middle to high income shopper but around the holidays they have more aspirational shoppers come in. Those are the people who they're seeing pull back, be extra cautious. And I think that's right.
- [10:20]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
So, you know, before we wrap up, just kind of on the specifics, Emily, just real quickly, who else are we done from the retailers? And didn't we just have like a pretty impressive Black Friday and Cyber Monday?
- [10:33]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
We did. We had, we had an interesting Black Friday Cyber Monday. We don't really know the full results yet. And I think we'll see that we have some more retailers reporting the rest of the week. We have Kroger tomorrow, five below.
- [10:48]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Right. To I think Ulta.
- [10:50]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
Exactly. PVA today.
- [10:51]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Yeah.
- [10:52]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
So we're still the retail earnings season really never stops. Yeah.
- [10:56]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
All right.
- [10:57]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
And then we'll get into the holiday results. Emily, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Bloomberg News consumer team leader Emily Cohn with the latest on retailers. Stuart Paul still with us talking about economics. I mean there's a lot going on and I guess we are just so focused about the Fed meeting next week. Is it all but done another quarter point cut and is it all then about what kind of color we get on 20, 26 and does it really matter because Fed Chair Jay Powell, we assume will be on his way out.
- [11:24]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
Yeah, I think that the 25 basis point cut in December is a done deal. When I think back to October, we only had one dissent in favor of holding rates steady and that was from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt. So when of course, the Beige Book came out, I was particularly interested to know what's going on in Kansas City. Is it possible that he would join the coalition of voters come December who would favor a 25 basis point cut? And Kansas City conditions looked quite a bit worse in the last Fed Beige Book. So I expect that there is this broader coalition forming for a December cut. You know that Governor Myron is going to vote in favor of more than 25 basis points in December. What's going to be a little bit peculiar, and we've seen this, we saw this last year in particular, is that when the summary of economic projections comes out with the dot plot, I would not be surprised to see other FOMC participants keeping their dots a quarter point higher than where we end the year. That's to say there are sort of shadow dissents among FOMC participants who are not voting, who would have preferred rates to not be lowered in December even though the actual voters decide to lower by 25.
- [12:36]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Explain why?
- [12:37]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
Because we have other FOMC participants who are not voters. And among those people are Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Dallas Fed President Lori Logan, folks like that who are going to be voters next year who were more hawkish in all of their public comments. They don't get a vote this time, but we expect that they would try to send a signal to the rest of the world, hey, we're not going to be moving at the same pace next year. And so when we see dots for 2026, I expect there is going to be a pretty wide distribution. I expect that the incoming cohort of FOMC voters from the regional banks are actually going to be quite a bit more hawkish in 2026 than they have been this year.
- [13:20]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Are we nuts to be thinking, or for traders and investors to be assuming that Kevin Hassett is the next Fed Chair? Because it does seem like all roads are leading. All Fed roads are leading to him.
- [13:30]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
At this point, it looks like that's going to be the case. It looks like it's going to be a Hassett nomination. President Trump was alluding to Kevin Hassett being the nominee when he had a press conference. I guess just yesterday. There was a story from the Financial Times today that apparently in one on one conversations between bond market investors and the White House, some folks expressed concern. But then you look at the price action when the trial balloon was floated last week with Kevin Hassett's name and he passed the financial markets test with flying colors. And so I'm less concerned about what folks are saying to the White House than what the market is saying to the White House. And the market is giving a clear go ahead.
- [14:12]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
I don't want to put the cart before the horse, but if you're saying the market is giving the clear go ahead, then what does the Senate confirmation process look like?
- [14:18]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
I think that what's different between, let's say the Senate confirmation process for Trump's nominees this time versus in his first term is that I guess you could say the MAGA movement has coalesced and there is a broader coalition that is in support of President Trump's agenda. And so the division between the Senate Republicans, for example, and the White House is pretty narrow. There is not a lot of dissent among Senate Republicans in the White House. Every now and then you see somebody pop up like Mitch McConnell, who has their own voice But I expect that somebody like Kevin Hasich should make it through the confirmation process in the Senate Banking Committee pretty easily. And then it'll be mostly a party line's vote when it actually gets to the Senate itself, to the Senate floor. So I don't think that it's going to be an easy process. I think that it's going to be one where you're gonna have some pretty dramatic headlines. When he gets questions from, from, let's say, Senator Warren from Massachusetts, it's going to be a pretty ugly back and forth. But when it comes time to actually counting the votes, I think you just get party lines votes and he gets, he gets his shot if that's what the White House ultimately decides to do.
- [15:33]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
And speaking of Senator, she's outspoken. She wants lower rates.
- [15:35]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
Yeah, that's right. This is what's tricky is that sometimes, sometimes political partisans find a way to make sort of funny bedfellows. And yes, she does want lower rates. But does it come at a cost of politicizing the Fed as an institution? I think she's going to try to make it more difficult for him, even though they, they both might want the same thing when it comes to policy.
- [15:59]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
It's just the Fed, all of it around the Fed. I mean, you had Treasury Secretary Scott Besson today saying he's going to push for this new rule that regional Fed presidents must have lived in that district for the last three years. For the last three years. I just feel like there's just so many things going on. You're going to come back. We will continue the Fed conversation, but keep in mind, one week from today, we will have the last decision of 2025. Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada.
- [16:22]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Economist Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. Coming up after this.
- [16:33]
When patients have a disease and the cause is known, it usually ends up needing a specific solution. On the podcast targeting the toughest diseases, we explore innovative tools, methods and unique philosophy Vertex Pharmaceuticals is using to search for treatments for some of humanity's most challenging diseases. Subscribe today wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [17:03]
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- [17:33]
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- [18:35]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [18:48]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
We promised you that we were going to continue on the US Economy and really the US Consumer. The online lending marketplace, a platform for loans, credit cards, deposit accounts, insurance and more. We're talking about Lending Club. They announced $100 million share buyback just about one month ago. It was about 50, not 50, nearly 5% of the company's market value on the day of the announcement. Now analysts have been raising their price targets on the stock this year, most recently again raising them since the company reported earnings late October. The company posted quarter results that beat estimates. They provided a guidance range for new fourth quarter originations with a midpoint above estimates. And the stock it's actually up this year?
- [19:26]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Yeah, it is. Shares of the $2.1 billion market cap company about 14%, up more than 12% since reporting those earnings back on October 22nd. Delighted to have with us Scott Sanborn, CEO of lending club. Also CEO for close to a decade at lending club for 15 years now. Also with us here in the Bloomberg Businessweek studio, Herman Chan, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst for U.S. regional banks. He helped bring all of this together. Scott, I want to start with you and just give us some size and scope of the business, the consumers that you're working with. Who's interacting with the platform yeah.
- [19:58]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
So we serve a customer base we call the middle majority. They are, if you think about credit, which we are a credit centric bank. If you've got a lot of money, you don't need a lot of access to credit. You pay cash for car, you save up to send your kids to college. If you're on the other end of the spectrum, you can't really access credit. So, so there's this middle group that are high income, heavy users of credit. So they can afford a car, they can afford to send their kids to school, but they need to use credit to do it. That that's who we serve. It's a really big customer base. It represents about a third of the US population, but it's close to half of the credit wallet. So they are more likely than average to have every form of credit. And that credit is, with the exception of mortgages, also larger than average. That's what we start with.
- [20:43]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
How much do these people usually make our average?
- [20:45]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
And you know, obviously misleading averages can be misleading, but average is about $125,000. But you can think of it as ranging between, call it $80,000 in individual income to about 200,000 is where we really over index.
- [21:00]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Great.
- [21:00]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
One of the real highlights of your recent investor day last week, last month was the panel discussion with marketplace investors. And we talked about this earlier, before, before your appearance here on radio, one of the panelists talked about being aligning performance expectations, partnering with better operators. Are you seeing that with the private, private credit space?
- [21:23]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
Yeah, we do. So you know, we were born as a marketplace. Initially, everything we originated, we sold. When we acquired the bank in 21, we started to hold a portion of of our loans on our balance sheet. That both gives us a stronger and more resilient earnings profile, also allows us to do other things, innovate using our balance sheet. And what we found is just by aligning our interest with our loan buyers. We're the largest eater of our own cooking. We're the largest holder of lending club loans. We care very deeply about the performance of the credit and credit is always evolving. It's very dynamic because we have a balance sheet. What we can do is when we want to test something new, we test it on our balance sheet. Let's try longer duration, let's try a larger loan size, let's try a new marketing channel. We hold that first. You own it, we own it. We make sure it performs the way we expect and then we release that to the marketplace. If you don't have a balance sheet you can't really do that. And so that's visible in our results across every aspect of underwriting. So lower delinquencies than the rest of the industry, 30 or 40% below, lower roll rates, higher recovery rates, lower prepayments, lower fraud. Literally every aspect that you can measure of credit we're outperforming on.
- [22:42]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Has that remained consistent this year in recent months, in recent weeks? Like, you have a great real time view of the consumer in the form of how well they are doing in terms of paying back their loans.
- [22:53]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
That's right.
- [22:54]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Looking good.
- [22:55]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
Yeah. So that's been consistent for, you know, we release four years of data we put out there and so it's remain consistent but, but you know, it's not. It's kind of like a duck on a pond. It's remained consistent because we're doing a lot of work underneath the COVID So, you know, something that we shared at Investor day is at any given time we have more than 200 tests in the market where we're evaluating price points, changes to the credit. So we're constantly adjusting to reflect what's happening with the consumer and that's what's giving us the consistent results.
- [23:28]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Well, so that to me says you're very picky about who you lend to.
- [23:31]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
That's true, we are.
- [23:33]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
So in terms of your tasks, so tell me what it is. I mean, and how many of people who apply or want to access your platform, you're like, I'm out.
- [23:42]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
Yeah. So we're pretty good at selecting who we want to have in our portfolio and reaching out to those people and then both delivering the price and product experience, but also, let's call it the user experience that gets them all the way through. So we look for areas where, for example, we can control the use of the fund proceeds. If you come to me and say, I want $20,000 because I'm going to do whatever my kid needs braces, or I'm moving cross country.
- [24:15]
Great. But unless I'm paying the orthodontist, I don't actually know that that's what you're using it for. So we try to set ourselves up so that we are in some ways controlling the use of proceeds and then making the experience such that it makes it really easy. So our largest use cases for people who already have debt, credit card debt most notably, which at this point more than half of all Americans are carrying, they're carrying it at really high rates, 23% interest rate, it's highest they've ever been in history. And we Say, great, you should do this instead. It takes less than five minutes. We're going to save you 700 basis points. Oh, and by the way, check all the credit cards that you have that you want us to pay off. Like we see you have Chase or a Cap one. Great. Check those. And we're going to pay them directly. So we know you are paying off your credit card debt. You're not just saying you're going to pay off your credit card debt and taking out more money. We are paying it off for you. Benefit for you is, you know, you've consolidated everything into one bill. Other benefit is your FICO score usually goes up by 30, 35 points because you've lowered your utilization.
- [25:19]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
How much can you lower? Like, I gotta tell you, credit card rates just blow my mind about how high they are. And I'm just curious, why are they so high? Are people so bad? Is it to cover? No. I'm curious.
- [25:29]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
Yeah, no, it's a great question.
- [25:30]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
It just seems like it's out of control and I think it prevents people from becoming financially solvent or creating, you know, kind of getting ahead of the game, if you will.
- [25:41]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
Yeah, there's a lot to unpack in that. Sorry, it is. No, no, it's a great question and, and there's a number of questions underneath. But I'd say the biggest thing is.
- [25:51]
If you think about how people choose credit cards, it is not based on the interest rate. It's my Sky Miles card or my, whatever, my retail store card. I'm going to get rewards for this. They don't even know what the interest rate is. Or it's a promotional rate that resets. So that's one they don't choose based on that. Half of the people don't revolve on the card. They're collecting these rewards. Yeah, but they're not carrying a balance. Well, guess who's paying for that? All the people that are carrying a balance. Those people don't know what their rates are. The research we've done is half of all customers don't say they don't know the interest rate on their credit cards. And the half that say they do, more than half of them are wrong. Right. They think they know their rate, but they don't. And so cards have been able. And one of the big resets with the cards was, was driven by the Card act, which limited how much cards could increase rates, so they factored in higher rates.
- [26:47]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
I just want to jump in real quick. We are speaking with Scott Sanborn, CEO of a lending club he's been CEO for close to a decade. We're also just getting some breaking news too on Apple. Apple's design executive Alan Dai, poached by Metta in a major coup. This is the most prominent design executives executive at Apple. This underscores a push by the social networking giant into AI equipped consumer devices. We also have here with us Herman Chan. He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst for U.S. regional banks.
- [27:15]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
Thanks. Wanted to follow up with you Scott, on some of the medium term expectations you laid out in Investor Day. You talked about doubling loan originations. We're talking about 18 to 20 billion dollars a year. What are some of the levers to get you to that level? You mentioned use cases, maybe talk about home improvement as a use case. And how do you maintain solid credit quality as you ramp up?
- [27:38]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
And home improvement is something you're getting into, right?
- [27:40]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
That's right, yep. So first and foremost is as I mentioned, you know, credit card refining. People out of their credit card debt into a fixed rate, lower rate loan is number one use case. It's, it's about 80, 80% of what we do. That market is the largest it's ever been. There's 1.3 trillion.
- [27:59]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
80% of what you do is that. Wow. Go ahead. Sorry.
- [28:02]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
So that is, you know, 1.3 trillion in balances priced at really, really high rates. We, you know, when the rate environment shifted and the inflationary pressure shifted, we pulled back on a lot of our marketing. So we're currently running today at sort of below our historical volumes. So we're just going back into that market, turning back on marketing channels that we had turned off. And then the other area is, you know, personal loans can be used literally for anything. Right. And before credit cards came around and came to be, they were the dominant way consumers accessed, you know, credit for everyday needs. So we have a major purchase finance business that's growing today. Call it 50 plus percent year on year. That's allowing things like elective medical procedures, you know, Lasix braces for your kid, you know, all kinds of procedures, fertility treatments, teeth implants. So things that insurance doesn't pay for but you want to do and you want to do right away. Private school education, that's another one. So home improvement is sort of a next adjacency. People right now are staying in their homes longer. You know, 75% of Americans, their mortgage rate is under 5%. They're not going anywhere.
- [29:18]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Right.
- [29:19]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
And the homes are getting older. So the homes need to be invested in, they need to be improved. So effectively enabling home improvement through an unsecured loan where again, we are controlling the use of proceeds. We can pay the supplier, we can pay the contractor. We've got the capability through an acquisition we announced to, you know, disperse this in phases to multiple parties. So we're, we're really excited to kick that off.
- [29:47]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
We've only got like 30 seconds left here.
- [29:49]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
Consumer doing okay, I'd say the consumer we serve is demonstrating themselves to be remarkably resilient.
- [29:57]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Despite that, it's a drinking game now.
- [30:01]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
But we'll acknowledge the sentiment isn't great.
- [30:05]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Yeah, come back soon. I have to tell you that I think we're all like, I want to go, I want to go. Please come back late because I think you have a great vantage and view into what's going on in the economy.
- [30:15]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
We'd love to.
- [30:16]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Okay. We would. To Scott Sandborg, Chief Executive Officer of Lending Club, our amazing Herman Chan, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst for U.S. regional banks.
- [30:24]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
- [30:31]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
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- [30:44]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
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Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Barbecue sauce. Tide's got you covered. You don't need to use warm water. Additionally, Tide pods let you confidently fight tough stains with new coldzyme technology. Just remember, if it's gotta be clean, it's gotta be Tide.
- [31:00]
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- [32:31]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube if you've been.
- [32:46]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Listening or watching us the past couple of days. You know, we've spent a couple days talking about residential real estate. We did that with Ron Elias off founder, managing director over at Northwind Group and then yesterday with Louise Phillips, Forbes of Brown Harris Stevens, our focus with them. Really what's been happening in New York City and what will happen in New York City. We want to take a different look, another look at a different type of real estate and kind of go further afield. Back with us is Amy Rubenstein. She's CEO of Clear Investment Group. It's a Chicago based firm that specializes in opportunistic real estate investment, specifically in the distressed mid sized multifamily sector in mostly secondary and tertiary markets around the U.S. she joins us once again here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. Welcome back.
- [33:27]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Thank you so much.
- [33:27]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
So it has been a little over a month since you were last with us. It was actually during the government shutdown. A lot has happened since then. We've gotten some data, we've gotten some delayed data. An update on just how things are looking in your world and remind everybody what markets you focus on.
- [33:41]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Yeah, we're seeing definitely two ends of the spectrum right now. So we are seeing some struggles that operators are having. I guess what we're really looking at.
- [33:49]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
More so than two months ago.
- [33:51]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Well, not so much more so than two months ago, but we're really feeling that K shaped economy that everybody's talking about where some of these lowering income tenants are struggling a little bit on expenses. We are still feeling inflationary pricing and we're feeling a little bit of a lack of labor. And I think that that is something that is starting to grow, is really looking more towards where does this construction labor come from. And I think that's a product of deportations and a product of not having a great immigration policies right now.
- [34:20]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
What do you think?
- [34:21]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Yeah, I was trying to Remember who I was talking to about this just in the last couple of days talking about how they are having a hard time finding people to do the work right now?
- [34:30]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Yeah, construction is a little bit tough.
- [34:32]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
So what type of construction specifically? We talked a lot about any kind.
- [34:36]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Of rehab, any sort of. It could be anywhere from ground up construction where developers struggling a little bit on prices both from inflation and also from lack of labor. And then also just on the, on.
- [34:45]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
The rehab in general early is really because of immigration. No doubt about it.
- [34:50]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
That's what we're seeing. Yeah, we're seeing it. A lot of people don't show up to work even if they do have legal status. People are a little bit scared. On the flip side, you are seeing incredible opportunities right now for investments because there is a lot of distress. We happen to be buying a lot right now. We're in the middle of a fundraise on a fund because there is so much to buy. There's opportunity, much great opportunity out there and not a ton of competition. Because right now lenders and investors are really not pricing interest performa they want in place, cash flow in place. Noi and if you can find stuff where the fundamentals are strong but the, and the NOI is fixable but not quite there, then you really have a great opportunity for buying.
- [35:35]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Michaela in our control room, one of our producers reminding us that just a couple of weeks ago we spoke to Christina Stembel of Farm Girl Flowers and she. They bought a farm to grow flowers on a small portion of their, their flowers. She said they were having, she was having hearing about a hard time with labor.
- [35:50]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Right. And we know that.
- [35:51]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Right.
- [35:51]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
The farm industry is another one you mentioned NOI net operating income. Help me understand something though. When you are finding lots of opportunities because there's distress out there. It's, it's when things aren't going so well. That's actually a good environment for you guys. True. I will say is there a little bit of a balance?
- [36:09]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
There's different kinds of distress. You feel some people that are really being strained by higher interest rates, by higher expenses, by higher delinquencies and so you feel some strain. And what that could cause is definitely some pricing adjustments as people are trying to sell. I do think as you were talking about before, interest rates are going to start to give a little bit of wind to cap rate compression and so you'll start to get buyers and sellers coming together more. But that's not the type of distress that I'm talking about. I'm talking about Distress that's even deeper than that, where operators maybe didn't have a lot of experience and overextended themselves. And so there's more to it than just that. There's layers of distress there.
- [36:48]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
How are tenants doing?
- [36:50]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
So I think that, you know, I think we see a little bit of both ends, right? We're back to that, that K shape where you see the higher end tenants doing very, very well and you see some of your lower income tenants that are struggling a bit more.
- [37:03]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Is it manifesting in the operators needing to offer concessions? Are you seeing delays in rent? What are you saying?
- [37:10]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
We've tried to start getting creative on different ways to help tenants keep up with their rent and help them with budgeting, teaching, budgeting classes, trying to pull out their rent in different stages during the month as their paychecks come in. So just try to help keep people on track a little bit.
- [37:26]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
It's fascinating. We just had a long, deep conversation with the CEO of LendingTree and the same thing. Am I saying it right?
- [37:32]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Yeah, Lending Club.
- [37:33]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Oh, Lending Club. Sorry, Lending Club. Forgive me, Lending Club. But the same thing in terms of when they are giving loans, like they want to know where it's going and if it's to pay off credit card debt, they will make those payments directly and really kind of teaching some financial responsibility and how big a part of that is what you guys do.
- [37:52]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
You know, it's really interesting because this is a new trend for us. This wasn't something that we were doing five years ago helping tenants learn about budgeting and finances. And it's something that now we're starting to really look into. How can we be partners with these tenants as opposed to the people that are forcing them to pay their rent?
- [38:10]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Why are you doing it? Is it just business sense?
- [38:13]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
It's a win, win for everybody. If people can prioritize their finances and get their rent paid and stay in their houses, it's better for us. We don't lose the income, we don't have to go through evictions. It's better for them, they don't have to be relocated. So it's a win win for everybody. It's a matter of can that have an effect? Can we be effective enough to help shape that?
- [38:35]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Do you, do the tenants feel like they're, they're being partnered with? I mean, there's this idea of an adversary, a relationship when it comes to landlord and tenant.
- [38:44]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Sure, I think there can be. And I think you get a little bit more of that in places. I would say a Place like New York where you've got rent control and the landlord and the tenant are not really aligned because they're not both choosing that rental rate.
- [38:58]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
I can think of some landlords I've had in my day where I was not. Not completely aligned with Carol.
- [39:02]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
What about you?
- [39:05]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Anybody who's lived in New York.
- [39:06]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
You know what's interesting? I. Of all the places that we rented, that I rented in New York.
- [39:12]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
Yeah.
- [39:13]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
One landlord who was good.
- [39:14]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
Really?
- [39:15]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Yeah.
- [39:15]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
But nobody ever talks about their good landlord.
- [39:17]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Out of four.
- [39:18]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Out of four, yeah.
- [39:19]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
What?
- [39:20]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Yeah, that was pretty good. 25. That's not bad. She was unique.
- [39:23]
Advertisement Voice
Okay.
- [39:24]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Yeah.
- [39:24]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Let's see again.
- [39:25]
Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
Unique.
- [39:25]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Unique, yeah. Your properties remind me because I think initially you guys were in Chicago. We're based out of Chicago.
- [39:33]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
But right now we have properties in Ohio, Louisiana.
- [39:36]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
California.
- [39:37]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Not anymore.
- [39:38]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Not anymore.
- [39:39]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
There just is not cash flow in California. It's a little more like New York City where everything's just based on appreciation.
- [39:44]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Do you do, will you. If California builds more, would you go back?
- [39:49]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
You know, we look for stabilized cash flow, not for incoming cash flow. We actually care about the NOI in place. When we purchase things, we actually look for negative NOI because we want to be able to fix that noi. And that's how we add better opportunity. Right. But we want to eventually get to strong, strong cash flow.
- [40:05]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Best places. In terms of geography right now for.
- [40:07]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
You guys, I think there's tons of opportunity in Atlanta. Atlanta. We keep looking over there. Lots in the Midwest. We love it. We love Ohio and Indiana. Right now we're buying in Alabama. We have a deal under contract in Illinois. Where in Ohio we're in Columbus. We really like Cleveland as well. So there are, there are, you know, people looking a lot in Cincinnati. There's lots of, lots of places to go there.
- [40:30]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
I know we talked, we go kind of all over with you. But when we talk about affordable housing, what is the answer? Which is something that we have talked about for decades.
- [40:40]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Right.
- [40:41]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
What do you, what do you think is the answer? And forgive me, I'm only giving you about 40 seconds. Solve a problem that has placed.
- [40:47]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
I think different markets are going to have different answers and answers. I think generally speaking.
- [40:54]
It'S, it's easier for us. We see a better opportunity in rehabbing and rehabilitating as opposed to ground up construction, where you need a lot of government subsidies or some sort of incentives to be able to get it done. For us, we see the opportunity in existing assets that just need to lift back up. But then again, you got to be willing to buy something that's a negative cash flowing in the beginning.
- [41:14]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
And most of those assets are going to be outside the major cities or in the major cities.
- [41:18]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Not necessarily. You know, we own in D.C. so it can be, it can be all over the place.
- [41:24]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Great stuff. Thank you for coming by again.
- [41:27]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Thank you for having me. Right.
- [41:28]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
We love real estate.
- [41:29]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Amy Rubenstein, CEO of Clear Investment Group.
- [41:32]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
This is the Bloomberg businessweek daily podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
- [42:03]
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- [42:33]
Hey, Ryan Reynolds here wishing you a.
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Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
Very happy half off holiday because right now Mint Mobile is offering you the gift of 50. 50% off, unlimited.
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Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
Mint is still premium unlimited wireless for a great price.
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Emily Cohn (Bloomberg News Consumer Team Leader)
So that means half day.
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Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Yeah.
- [42:53]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
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Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
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- [43:05]
Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics U.S. and Canada Economist)
Pepperidge Farm cookies.
- [43:07]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
Milano mint chocolate, so rich.
- [43:09]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Jessmin butter cookies, so buttery.
- [43:12]
Advertisement Voice
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- [43:14]
A holiday classic.
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These are fancy Santa.
- [43:17]
Scott Sanborn (CEO of Lending Club) and Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst)
Fancy Santa.
- [43:19]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Fancy Santa.
- [43:21]
Co-host or Interviewer (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host)
Designer cologne.
- [43:22]
Advertisement Voice
Spritz Me Vintage timepiece.
- [43:24]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Classy o'.
- [43:25]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Clock.
- [43:25]
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer/Producer
Gold chain with diamonds.
- [43:28]
Advertisement Voice
Now that's fancy.
- [43:31]
Host (likely a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily host)
Pepperidge Farm cookies. Fancy a taste.