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- [00:00]
Marsh Representative
At Marsh, we believe that perspective powers progress. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company, a new Marsh built to solve the world's most complex challenges and uncover new opportunities for our clients. We're better positioned than ever to help your business navigate obstacles and unlock potential across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments and management consulting. Learn more@visitmarsh.com podcast wasabi is purpose built.
- [00:31]
Tim Stenebeck
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- [00:59]
Heather Long
Network.
- [01:03]
Marsh Representative
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.
- [01:33]
Tim Stenebeck
Well, as I mentioned, we want to go all in on not just the consumer in this economy, but also the latest with how people are viewing that probe into the Federal Reserve. I want to bring in a name that's absolutely familiar to our audience, Heather Long. She's chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. She spent years at the Washington Post and before that she was at cnn. She's watched the Federal Reserve for many, many years. And Heather, we had booked you a long time ago, before we knew what would happen, before we found out what would happen over the weekend with the Federal Reserve. I just want to get your reaction to what many consider an unprecedented move on the Fed's independence.
- [02:09]
Heather Long
Yeah, it was really something to see last night, that video from the Fed from Fed Chair Powell coming out so strongly. He's known as Mr. Congeniality in Washington, D.C. he always has been striking a very diplomatic tone, but last night the gloves came off and he really pushed back strongly. This, this was the breaking point for Fed Chair Powell and his congeniality in Washington. You know, I think a couple of things really stand out to me going forward. Number one has been the strong reaction, as you all were talking about earlier, from some Republicans, not just Thom Tillis, but also Senator Murkowski from Alaska. You know, both of those senators from from the GOP saying that they would block, they would block any Fed chair nominee from President Trump until this issue is resolved and the criminal probe or criminal allegations are pulled back against Fed Chair Powell. I thought that was really striking to me. And the other thing I think people really forget in the Fed debate is the FOMC technically elects its own chair each year. So there is a hypothetical world where even if President Trump gets his own nominee through the process in the Senate, it is possible that Fed Chair Powell could stay on as a Fed governor after his term expires May, May 15, and even still be elected chair or some other leadership role of the fomc.
- [03:41]
Tim Stenebeck
So does this, do you think this probe makes it more likely he'd stay on because he wants to be, be the Fed? Send this signal to markets that, hey, I'm not going anywhere. The Fed is going to remain independent. I'm going to stay put, definitely.
- [03:55]
Heather Long
And I think one of the things that struck me, I've covered Fed Chair Powell since his first days. I used to be one of the Fed reporters in the room there and meeting with him regularly. And one of the things that's always stood out to me from my very first one on one meeting with Fed Chair Powell is how much of an institutionalist he is. He's spoken openly about his admiration for Paul Volcker and what he did. Part of the reason he undertook Fed Chair Powell, undertook this massive renovation of the Eccles Building is because he really believed that he wanted to literally leave the Fed, the building of the Fed and all the people in the Fed and the institution of the Fed better off when he stepped down as Fed chair. And so I think you're right. If he feels that the Fed is and its independence is truly under threat, he will stay on and he will try to play that key role.
- [04:49]
Emily
Well, I think reflecting on Jerome Powell's tenure as the Fed chair is a good segue to talk about your views on how the economy is looking right now. We hear this term K shaped economy all the time. From your role now, is that an accurate portrayal of the real steel state of the economy in the U.S. yeah.
- [05:13]
Heather Long
Emily, thanks for asking. So I believe I was the first person to coin the return of the K shape economy last summer. I wrote about it in a Washington Post column in early August, did the Moody's Inside Economics podcast, among others. And the term really took off after some of those appearances I made. And look, I believe we are in a K shape economy. And the reason that I say that so confidently is not just the Moody's data that many people have cited. But we have 15 million members here at Navy Federal Credit Union, most of whom are in the middle class. And we can see it in our credit card data. It is literally two different worlds going on in our credit card data. I mean, maybe three, but three is a much harder thing to put a letter on. Maybe EE just doesn't feel right. But look, basically the new dividing line in America is around $170,000 and that's the top 20% families who earn household income above that. Those people we can see in our data and they continue to grow their spending every month, 6 or 7%. They're spending heavily on discretionary and travel. Then there's kind of the middle class, let's say the kind of 80 to $120,000 consumer. Those people, it's, it's flat to a little bit up. It depends on the month. It was kind of the Costco Christmas for the middle class. We saw a huge jump in people shopping at Costco, Sam's Club, TJ Maxx. We're talking double digit growth and spending in the holiday season at those type of value and discount stores. And then there's the bottom of the K, you know, folks who are sort of $65,000 and below. And I kid you not, a number of those people we can see in our data are actually spending less.
- [06:57]
Tim Stenebeck
Wow.
- [06:58]
Heather Long
Not just less than in 2024, but in some cases less in inflation adjusted terms than they were spending in 2019.
- [07:04]
Tim Stenebeck
So Heather, we only have about 30 seconds left and then we're going to, we're going to get you back on soon. But is any of that data indicating to you that there could be a recession on the horizon?
- [07:14]
Heather Long
I don't think so, not immediately. But I think there's going to be ongoing angst. The K shape economy isn't going away anytime soon and I believe we're in a jobless boom right now and that that continues to aggravate the frustration on Main street as well. People are not getting the wage increases that they want and are used to the past several years, let alone being able to get another job. So put all that together and it's it's a rough winter for the middle class.
- [07:42]
Tim Stenebeck
Heather Long, appreciate you joining us. Heather is chief economist for Navy Federal Credit Union. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily. Coming up after this.
- [07:58]
Marsh Representative
Business challenges and opportunities are never one dimensional. At Marsh, we believe that to thrive you need perspective. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company. A newmarsh where each layer of our organization works even more closely together to provide you with a stronger, more panoramic perspective. We're now one firm solving the world's most complex challenges and unlocking opportunities for you across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments and management consulting. As business continues to evolve, Marsh will always be here to help you overcome new challenges, answer new questions, and take advantage of new opportunities. We're better positioned than ever to provide the perspective you need to fuel progress forward. See how@visitmarsh.com podcast, you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [09:06]
Tim Stenebeck
All right, everybody, tick tock. As Carol Massar says, when we get close to 18 minutes till the end.
- [09:12]
Paige Smith
Of trading, tick tock.
- [09:13]
Tim Stenebeck
Tick tock. Taking a look at the S P500, we just heard an update from Charlie Pellet and Bill Maloney. We're off our best levels of the day. The S P down up rather close to 2/10 of 1%. The NASDAQ composite of 410 of 1%. The Dow higher by 110 of 1%. I want to bring in Aaron Kennedy's co founder and CEO of Clear Harbor Asset Management. The firm manages just under $2 billion. I haven't spoken to him in a few months. He joins us once again from Stamford, Connecticut. Aaron, you know you always send us some great notes ahead of time, but but one thing that maybe not was on radar for a lot of people was the continued attacks on Fed Chair Jay Powell. It seemed like that had been kind of pulled back a little bit. And then late yesterday, we hear read in the New York Times and then just minutes later, we see that video from Fed Chair Jay Powell. What do you make of this unprecedented move, not just from Powell, but also from the Department of Justice?
- [10:08]
Aaron Kennedy
Yeah, it certainly wasn't on our bingo card 24 hours ago. And it's a sad moment. And I think, you know, the criminal investigation that potentially could ensue right now. It's a Department of justice subpoena, I guess. For what reason? Because he's cut rates. But he hasn't done it quickly enough. Let's not forget Powell cut rates 100 basis points in 2024, 75 basis points in 2025. And it seems like there's quite a bit of consensus around the table on Powell's side that maybe the economic data is strong enough, which President Trump should cheer, to possibly put the Fed on hold here for a little while until we see either growth running very strong or inflation becoming problematic. So it's really shooting the administration in the foot and really their objective going into the midterms, I think is to prove that the economy is in great shape, which has been trending as such and I think will potentially be the case in 2026. But, but this doesn't help. You know, having these sort of coercive tactics, tactics to try to sort of nudge the independence of the central bank is just an anathema to, I think, objective observers.
- [11:32]
Tim Stenebeck
So we're getting sort of, you know, the quick reaction from the banks and from the analysts right now about what this could actually do to markets. PJM out and PIMCO saying that there's a risk that the fight that President Trump is having with the Fed will drive rates higher. JP Morgan's trading desk is, quote, cautious on U.S. stocks after the Fed probe. After this Fed probe. Where do you stand?
- [11:54]
Aaron Kennedy
Yeah, I think it's interesting. What has the market done since, since we've opened today. Market opened up, down and has rallied. Why is it rallied? It seems like it's rallied because Secretary of Treasury Bessant wasn't even aware that the Department of Justice was going to take this sort of action and has gone to the President, according to Axios and indicated that this was really not helpful to the cause, to the cause of growing our economy, to messaging appropriately to the country now and all the way into the midterm elections. And so the market has rallied. So that's helpful. Maybe the president backs off. Maybe there's an off ramp for sure. But I tend to agree with, I think you said it was PJIM and pimco that this could become problematic if, if these types of actions seem to be, you know, more, more, more common over the next several months. I mean, look at last week, we had this sort of cap on, on, on announcement from the president. They wanted to cap interest rates on credit cards. Well, that all sounds fine and Danny, except who's going to be the most harmed by that? The actual credit card user who can't pay their monthly credit card bill. And that's the problem. The banks will remove those lines of credit. They'll cancel their credit cards. I pay my bill every month. I won't have a problem. So he's trying to address the k shape challenge in the economy. 38% of Americans who don't own stocks but have a lot of credit card debt will be the most harmed by this. So again, very Counterproductive.
- [13:29]
Emily
The noise, the headlines. When it comes to Fed independence and potentially political pressures on the Federal Reserve, how do you position your client portfolios based off that? Do you buy gold as a hedge? Do you sell your US Equities?
- [13:48]
Aaron Kennedy
We're trying to think, Katie, about the long run. But we're also right from the start with our relationship with our client. We're trying to understand what's the client's own sort of emotional risk tolerance. How much volatility in their mind can they withstand? Not just can they afford to lose, but can they withstand sort of what we refer to as the sleep well at night factor and creating a portfolio around that. So to your question about those asset classes that maybe mitigate some of the volatility that could ensue within the equity market? Yes, gold is actually an asset class that we've been touting. I've written about it for quarters. Tim's probably received it in my notes over the last many years. It's something that we've believed in. It's a response to a lot of different things. One is the declining confidence in our fiat currency system generally at global level. And the other one is this diversification of foreign central bank reserves away from the dollar and even the euro. And that was really accelerated after Russia's invasion of Ukraine when we shut off dollar access and euro access to Russia. So countries like China sort of said, well, when we do trading with developed nations that do not like us so much, instead of buying euro denominated or dollar denominated fixed income, we're going to go buy gold. And you can see that foreign reserves at the central bank level over the last five years have risen from a 6% weighting to a 21% weighting. And so we still think there's a place for gold in portfolios for our clients.
- [15:17]
Tim Stenebeck
Hey, Aaron, I want to switch gears a little bit because we're getting some breaking news. Cities set to eliminate about 1,000 jobs this week in a cost cut point push. I'm looking at plant shares of City. It was down earlier in the session. It's just still down 3%. So stock not moving much on that headline. Actually moving just a little bit higher on that headline Meta platforms. Also the New York Times reporting that it will cut around 10% of reality labs unit staff. The the job cuts that we're seeing. Look, this is, these are anecdotal right now at this point, but they're still numbers. It's still data. How do you view the labor market right now? And the connection with the consumer because the consumer certainly powers this economy.
- [15:57]
Aaron Kennedy
Yeah, I think the labor market is reasonably strong. We saw that in the non farm payrolls data on Friday. We saw that in the jolts data last week. A lot of anecdotal evidence is that it's reasonably strong. I think we have to be really careful when we look at a 50,000 per month print like we saw on Friday with nonfarm payrolls. Historically that number over the last couple of years has been more like 150,000 or 200,000. But if you look at our net immigration numbers in this country and you annualize the last, let's say six months under the new sort of Trump immigration regime, it speaks to the reality that 150 to 200,000 per month net job growth for 2024 or 2023 is probably closer to like 30,000 or 40,000. And we printed 50. So I think those numbers are okay again. Yeah, why shoot? Why shoot the economy in the foot.
- [16:52]
Tim Stenebeck
With these got got to run, unfortunately against the clock. Erin Cannon of Clear Harbor Asset Management. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.
- [17:07]
Marsh Representative
You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg or watch us live on YouTube.
- [17:20]
Tim Stenebeck
I'm guessing Paige Smith had a special evening, but it was not with some friends unless you consider her sources at these consumer finance companies her friends. Paige Smith is consumer finance reporter for Bloomberg News. The reason I'm saying Friday night is because Friday night was when we got the news that the president out on social media with a statement he wants to cap credit card interest rates at 10%. My first question that I had can he do that?
- [17:44]
Paige Smith
That is a great question. And I think that first of all, just to back up for a second, this has been sort of a very chaotic weekend I would say, and into Monday morning there are a lot of unanswered questions of what exactly the President can and cannot do around this statement. I will say so the initial statement that the President would like to cap credit card interest rates at 10% went out on Friday and then the President again reiterated that statement stance on Sunday evening on Air Force One. So it was a sort of doubling down on his statement and it's unclear the legal levers that he can pull.
- [18:21]
Tim Stenebeck
He wrote on true social affordability effective January 20, 2026, I President of the United States calling for a one year cap on credit card interest rates of 10%. We're looking at what? This is the first day where markets have been open after that statement, that edict from the president. JPMorgan Chase down 1.8% right now. Capital One Financial, off its worst levels the day, but still down about 6.7%. Citigroup down about 3.2%. Capital One is the one that could be most affected by something like this.
- [18:53]
Paige Smith
So it's important to note that a number of major Wall street banks are credit card issuers, and Capital One is the largest, largest credit card issuer by loan volume in the U.S. but, you know, JP Morgan is vastly impacted by this or could be impacted by this. American Express. You know, you think of any sort of bank that has a major credit card portfolio, right? And those are the folks who would be hit the hardest if implemented Again, early days. We need to see in a substantive proposal which we have not seen. Yeah, okay.
- [19:27]
Emily
So I'm sorry that you had to work this weekend, but you've done some great reporting. I have to say my initial instinct when I saw this news, you know, capping interest rates at 10% was, oh, maybe that would be good for the end consumer. But your reporting shows that that's. It's not exactly that clear cut.
- [19:45]
Paige Smith
Certainly it's not that clear cut. And I would say what we have reported on so far is that a number of analysts are actually pointing out that this really could result in less credit being available to you US Consumers. Because if you think about it, if the economics don't work, then, you know, these are banks, they're very focused on their bottom lines. It would make sense for them to essentially pull back on credit that would be available to U.S. consumers. And, you know, there was a note.
- [20:12]
Emily
From UBS that I noticed. They said it would take an act of Congress for such rate caps to be in place. In summary, they said that they believe that these caps are unlikely to be implemented. What's come up so far about what Congress would be able to do, if anything?
- [20:29]
Paige Smith
So what we know so far is that there have been a number of bills proposed over the years. More recently, there was a bill proposed by Senators Josh Hawley and Bernie Sanders, which is quite interesting. You know, you kind of think of the political spectrum there, and they've come together to sort of agree on this one individual idea. But we will have to see again, that also makes for a very interesting negotiation on Capitol Hill and also with the White House of this mix of folks who maybe, shall I say, are not often in the same room.
- [21:03]
Tim Stenebeck
I think a consumer would hear our conversation. They'd say, okay, I understand that banks have to have the capital in order to extend credit to customers, but does it have to be 29%? Could it be 20%, 15%? Could it be 10%? And yes, the banks would be less profitable, but they would still extend credit and that would still be part of their business.
- [21:26]
Paige Smith
I think that's an open question. I would, I will be the first one to say that I am not a bank CFO and I don't make these decisions. But I think a substantive proposal would have to be seen before any sort of CFO would have those discussions. And just to kind of ask the question of how low could you go, right. For an credit card interest rate? And if you look at credit cards currently, like there's not a blanket interest rate across the board, there are a lot of different options for different consumers. Depending on your FICO score, depending on perhaps how long you've had a relationship with the bank. There are a lot of different factors that go into a credit card interest rate. So unsure of exactly if there is sort of a number where banks will dip to or if a lot of. There's a lot of uncertainty as of now, I would say.
- [22:14]
Emily
What do the consumer advocacy groups say about this? Is this something that they've been calling for over the years?
- [22:22]
Paige Smith
So so far we have seen a number of statements come out. I would say the bank lobbying groups have kind of took an interestingly measured tone where they kind of spoke to sort of some of the consumer pain, I suppose that has been felt by us, you know, folks across the US Where I think it's easy to say that it's expensive to be expensive right now for a number of different, on a number of different fronts. And I think that the bank lobbying group sort of took the measured tone and acknowledged how expensive it is and said that they're, you know, again, there's much to be seen, but that's the approach they've taken.
- [22:57]
Emily
Okay. I also want to ask about Buy now, pay later, because at the bottom of your article you do mention that they could be a winner. We're talking about the Klarna's of the world, the affirms where again, the consumer can buy something, but they actually don't have to pay the bill until a little bit later on.
- [23:15]
Paige Smith
Yeah. So it's, I would say that over, you know, over the past weekend or since that initial announcement was made on Friday, it's been really interesting to kind of see the folks who have emerged and what opportunities have been identified as alternatives. I suppose to credit cards. So we saw a statement earlier from the SoFi CEO Anthony Noto, for example, saying, I believe the quote was giddy up in reference to. Actually, it's important to note as well that SoFi does actually have a credit card, but the firm is best known for its student loan financing and also for its personal loans. So that was sort of the stage stance that Anthony Nota was taking is like, yes, this could be an opportunity. But again, we also could see opportunity amongst the buy now, pay later firms.
- [24:02]
Tim Stenebeck
When it comes to consumer behavior, when we think about people who use credit cards and carry balances, what can you tell us about that behavior and the people who pay off credit cards each month and don't necessarily create a lot of profits for these banks, although we should note, interchange fees, yes, are a source of revenue for them. But what does that look like is that the minority of people are paying off their credit cards.
- [24:27]
Paige Smith
So not to go too nerdy into the payments you can get for a minute, but. So there are kind of two interesting and quite distinct groups that credit card companies are aware of called, like the revolvers and the transactors. So if you're a transactor, you're sort of that group that you were just describing, Tim, where, you know, you use a, you know, you use your credit card essentially for the lovely rewards that are available to you. Maybe you have a credit card with a fee, maybe it has no fee, but it is tied to an airline or something along those lines. And, you know, you pay off your credit card bill in full each month. And it's not as if you carry a balance and, you know, you're not making the bank a whole heck of a lot of money when you do that. But who is making the bank a lot of money are the revolvers. So this group of people who essentially, you know, certainly may take advantage of some of those rewards programs and sign up for credit cards for those reasons, but do carry a balance from month to month and are accruing those fees and the accruing those, accruing that interest, if you will, for the bank. But yes, interchange fee or sort of the money that banks get and all the other parties get actually for tapping, swiping and using your card at checkout, those are also major revenue drivers for banks.
- [25:42]
Tim Stenebeck
So net net, based on the. The sources you spoke to, the analysts you spoke to, real risk for these.
- [25:47]
Paige Smith
Companies or not, I would say that people are taking this very seriously, especially after the President doubled down on his statements on Air Force One on Sunday evening. Last night.
- [25:58]
Tim Stenebeck
I mean, look, I think everybody has to understand, and we're going to talk the politics of this a little later in the process program that the president is in a midterm year. There's a push for affordability. We heard that from Bill Pulte on surveillance this morning. Just wait for Davos next week when we hear from the president about what he is going to do when it comes to affordability. So I would imagine, Emily, that all the CEOs right now are thinking, okay, wait a second, what is the president going to say about my industry when it comes to affordability?
- [26:26]
Emily
That's right. Paige Smith, consumer finance reporter, you're sticking with us, but thank you for all of that reporting today.
- [26:34]
Tim Stenebeck
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.
- [26:42]
Marsh Representative
You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [26:56]
Tim Stenebeck
Meantime, I want to switch gears a little bit and go global right now because I don't know if you've seen the footage coming from Iran, but it's been very powerful. The foreign minister saying security forces have, quote, full control of the country after two weeks of violent unrest. This amid reports that he's reached out to the US following an intervention threat by President Donald Trump. I want to bring in Nick Wadhams. He's Bloomberg News national security team leader. He joins us from The Bloomberg Washington, D.C. bureau. Nick, it's sometimes difficult to sometimes a challenge to get a full picture of what's actually happening on the ground in Iran. What can you tell us about what you know?
- [27:30]
Nick Wadhams
Well, I mean, clearly in cases like this, when you have a lot of difficulty getting real insight into what's happening on the ground, you judge it based on what the response is from the leadership. And their response so far saying essentially they're going to crush these protests makes clear that they take it very, very seriously. So, you know, on the US Side, there is a lot of anticipation and hope, particularly among the Trump administration, that this could essentially amount to the downfall of the regime. On the other hand, you've got to say, wait a minute here. You know, this is a government that has managed to stay in power for many, many years, surviving a massive squeeze by the United States, war with Iraq back in the 1980s, recent campaign of military strikes by the Trump administration and the succession of protests over the years. So gauging whether this actually means the regime is going to be toppled, you know, that's a big if. Of course, the question is, you know, these things can happen very slowly and then suddenly happen very quickly. So I think that's what the Trump administration is certainly counting on and perhaps even indicating that they might be trying to give it a little bit of a push as well.
- [28:37]
Emily
I'm curious, when you observe what's going on in the ground in Iran, is there anything that distinguishes this moment from previous protest waves that we have seen in the country?
- [28:49]
Nick Wadhams
Well, I mean, so you've had protests in the country in the past that were large, but nothing on this scale and so sustained. So seeing this number of people out in the streets for this long is something that's really new. And again, when you see that response from the regime, it makes clear how seriously they take it and how much of a threat they see it as. You also had this footage of the president walking on the street, and he has certainly tried to navigate, thread the needle, as it were, between responding to the demands of the protesters, but also staying ultimately answerable to the ayatollah. So it certainly seems far more precarious than past protests, which it never seemed to explain to extend quite so deeply.
- [29:37]
Tim Stenebeck
Nick, is anyone seriously thinking that this could be a turning point for the country and the country's leadership, especially following last year's U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities? Could this be a turning point where Iran could be a democracy again?
- [29:52]
Nick Wadhams
Well, you know, there's a, there's be a long way to go before it was a functioning democracy, I think, you know, given that the systems. Iran has not really had a democratic system since, you know, even long before the ayatollah came to power. So, you know, the idea that we would see a sort of fully functioning democracy, I think is not really something that's being counted on anytime soon. But certainly there is a belief that we are in uncharted territory here. And, you know, the big question is what exactly is the role played by the United States? How much of these protests are just people really tired both of the regime, but also the economic isolation that this country has been under for so many years and the financial hardship they've been forced to face because of that sanctions regime? In some ways, it feels like people on the street are just simply fed up and don't want to take it anymore. Of course, what the result is now, functioning democracy or just a deeper chaos? I mean, that's going to be a question only time will tell.
- [30:54]
Emily
Our Bloomberg News reporting showing that Trump says US Is mulling Iran options. Talk about what Specifically, those options would be what does that actually mean?
- [31:06]
Nick Wadhams
Right. I mean, so you had the White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt saying military force is always an option, but the US Would prefer democracy, diplomacy. Excuse me. And there have been some indications that presidential envoy Steve Witkoff is talking to a. The foreign minister there. So it does appear that there is some sort of diplomacy happening behind the scenes. I mean, it's not really clear how the US Using military force could help the protesters, I guess, if they did targeted strikes against the regime in some way. But what you really see here is the muscle flexing by Donald Trump after the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. The previous Iran strikes, strikes in Nigeria, Syria, Yemen. I mean, this is a president who is willing to push the bounds of his authority and his power to extreme ends and ends that have not really been seen in many, many years. So how that could change things in Iran, very unknown. But you can be certain that now, unlike in the past, after the Maduro raid, for example, the regime in Iran is really standing up and taking notice about that threat.
- [32:11]
Tim Stenebeck
Nick, where is Israel in all of this?
- [32:14]
Nick Wadhams
I think Israel would be very much a willing participant in any, any action that the US Take would take. I mean, Israel has argued that it's under the cloud of, of a potentially catastrophic strike from Iran should Iran develop a nuclear weapon. So they would like to do anything they can to see the regime there ushered from power. The question, of course, though, is what, what happens next? I mean, there's a lot of euphoria and anticipation about toppling some of these regimes. But then, you know, you look at a country like Afghanistan or certainly Iraq after the invasion in 2003, the result, what happens in the years and decades to come, is entirely unpredictable. So it's hard to see for Israel how a successor regime in Iran could be any worse. But of course, it's happened before.
- [33:01]
Tim Stenebeck
Is there any indication the US has infrastructure in place for some sort of operation? Like, you know, if we look at the leading up to Maduro and what happened in Venezuela, there was so much infrastructure being put into that part of the world. Is it shifting?
- [33:18]
Nick Wadhams
Well, we have not seen the US shift assets out of the Caribbean Sea, at least as far as we know. And they've certainly made no public announcements, but, you know, the administration at this point, the US Military has so many assets that it's disposal. Of course, the big question there is what would a US Strike look like? I mean, when you had those Iran strikes earlier last year, the US Was flying bombers from an air base in the United States along with jets that were stationed in the region. So there's a question of, you know, what the scope of that US Operation would be and whether they would really need to shift a serious number of assets there, given that they could could have bombers refueled en route and then attack and then return to base.
- [34:01]
Tim Stenebeck
Yeah, like we saw last year. Nick Wadhams, national security Team Leader for Bloomberg News, joining us from Washington.
- [34:06]
Marsh Representative
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- [34:38]
Tim Stenebeck
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