Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Russians Are Now Feeling Real Economic Pain From Putin’s War
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Date: November 26, 2025

Overview

This episode centers on the multifaceted impact of the war in Ukraine, Putin’s objectives, and the current U.S.-Russia diplomatic situation. The hosts speak with political scientist Elise Giuliano, economist Claudia Sahm, and other expert guests to break down the evolving economic, diplomatic, and policy landscape. The latter half focuses on the latest Fed Beige Book, market reactions, tariffs, trade policy, and U.S. consumer and industrial outlooks.

1. Russia, Ukraine, and U.S. Diplomacy: Unpacking Recent Negotiations

Key Segment: [01:57–10:45]

Main Points

• U.S.-Led Negotiations & Alleged Favoring of Russia

  • Details emerge about a call between President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Yuri Ushakov, a top Putin aide.
  • Witkoff reportedly advised Ushakov on how Russia should approach peace talks with Trump, suggesting Russia initiate a call with Trump before a scheduled White House meeting with Ukraine’s Zelensky.

• Standard Diplomacy or Unusual Alignment?

  • On whether this aligns with normal diplomatic practice, Elise Giuliano states:
    • “Yes, President Trump used the word standard, but…Witkoff actually in a way took Russia's side by telling Russia that they should call Trump…That looks like…choosing the wrong side since it's Russia that attacked Ukraine.” ([04:14])

• Misconceptions About the War’s Purpose

  • Giuliano stresses, “Witkoff worked in real estate…so he seems to me [to] conceptualize this conflict as a war over land…but…that’s not really what Russia’s interested in. What they want to do is destroy Ukrainian sovereignty.” ([04:58])
  • She notes that Putin’s goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining Western alliances and undermine its existence as a sovereign nation.

Notable Quotes

• On U.S. negotiating posture:
  “You talk to your ally when you are trying to negotiate a ceasefire or an end to a war involving your ally…and here…Witkoff actually in a way took Russia’s side.” – Elise Giuliano ([04:14])

• On Russia’s aims:
  “Russia…doesn’t want the land. What they want to do is destroy Ukrainian sovereignty.” – Elise Giuliano ([04:58])

2. Russia’s Domestic Pain, War’s Stalemate, and U.S.-Russia Relations

Key Points

• Putin’s Motivations

  • Putin is deeply threatened by a democratic Ukraine on Russia’s border and personally affected by loss of influence (“oligarchic friends” were expelled from Ukraine).
  • Claims of shared Slavic brotherhood and denial of Ukrainian nationhood fuel policies like child abductions.

• Impact on U.S.-Russia Relations

  • Relations are “much, much worse” than before the war. Americans are now used as pawns in diplomatic standoffs, and nearly all cooperation has ceased. ([07:30])

• Prospects for Peace

  • Giuliano doubts any quick resolution:
    • “A ceasefire agreement would be wonderful. Ukrainians continue to suffer...but there’s this kind of intransigent position of Putin, which is, again, the goal to undercut Ukrainian sovereignty.” ([08:53])
  • Both sides have reasons to pause, but Putin’s persistence and recent Russian military progress stymie talks.

Notable Quotes

• On Ukraine’s suffering:
  “She sometimes can't go to the hospital for her medical care because there's no hospitals closed, and you never know when it's open or closed. So there's this tragic...ongoing human element.” – Elise Giuliano ([08:53])

• On the war’s end:
  “It’s a war of attrition right now, and it's a drone war…but war is very unpredictable, and Russia is facing a lot of economic problems due to Ukrainian drone attacks on its energy and oil infrastructure.” – Elise Giuliano ([09:55])

3. The Federal Reserve Beige Book and Economic Outlook

Key Segment: [13:26–23:19]

Main Points

• Current State of the U.S. Economy

  • The Beige Book notes economic activity was “little changed” with some districts showing slight decline.
  • Consumer spending is down, except among high-income households.
  • Employment has declined slightly, causing concern among Fed watchers.

• Implications for Federal Reserve Policy

  • Economist Stuart Paul: “If we have both spending in the aggregate declining, we have employment in the aggregate declining…the balance of risk is skewed towards the Fed needing to undergird the economy, maybe needing to take that additional rate cut in December.” ([14:08])
  • Claudia Sahm expects a “divided Fed” at the next meeting. She cautions December 2025 may bring the last cut under Chair Jay Powell’s tenure ([19:18]).

• Tariffs and Price Pressures

  • Claudia Sahm notes the Beige Book mentioned “tariff” 47 times, mostly linked to price increases—effects are showing up in higher goods inflation.
  • Uncertainty remains as much of the ultimate tariff impact may not be felt until demand recovers.

Notable Quotes

• On Fed’s outlook:
  “I suspect there probably will be a cut in December. That may be the last cut that we see from the Powell Fed...but I think we're going to…see more dissents.” – Claudia Sahm ([19:18])

• On tariffs and inflation:
  “It is difficult to pass on those price increases at a time when you're seeing a period of weak demand.” – Brooke Sutherland ([24:02])

4. Trade Policy, Industrials, and Corporate Caution

Key Points

• Tariffs’ Ripple Effects (Deere as Example)

  • Companies like Deere face weak demand both due to global trade uncertainty and difficulty passing costs to customers.
  • Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Industrial Strength, explains: “You have the companies that are supplying the AI data center boom…then you have pretty much everything else…in a downturn for…a very extended period.” ([25:31])

• Investor Hesitation

  • Capex spending is weak outside of AI/tech due to uncertainty over trade policy, input costs, and demand.

5. Market and Investment Views: Liquidity, Debt, and Valuations

Key Segment: [31:26–37:39]

Main Points

• Tech Rotation and Market Risks

  • Max Wasserman of Miramar Capital calls out recent rotation into Alphabet and the risk of chasing tech at high valuations.
  • Warns that high margin debt and declining consumer strength set the stage for further Fed intervention.

• Fed and Policy Uncertainty

  • The expectation is that the Fed will provide more liquidity via rate cuts, possibly under pressure from Trump.
  • This risks renewed inflation, and, if the yield curve steepens, could hurt tech valuations.

Notable Quotes

• On Fed priorities:
  “The Fed has told you right now it's less concerned about inflation, more concerned about economic growth and jobs. They've switched their language a little bit.” – Max Wasserman ([36:14])

• On market outlook:
  “Every time the market has a problem, the Fed flinches and gives them low interest rates.” – Max Wasserman ([37:39])

6. Memorable Quotes and Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|----------------|-------| | 04:58 | Elise Giuliano | "Russia…doesn’t want the land. What they want to do is destroy Ukrainian sovereignty." | | 08:53 | Elise Giuliano | "A ceasefire agreement would be wonderful. Ukrainians continue to suffer...but there’s this kind of intransigent position of Putin..." | | 14:08 | Stuart Paul | "If we have both spending in the aggregate declining, we have employment in the aggregate declining...the balance of risk is skewed towards the Fed needing to undergird the economy." | | 19:18 | Claudia Sahm | "I suspect there probably will be a cut in December. That may be the last cut that we see from the Powell Fed..." | | 36:14 | Max Wasserman | "The Fed has told you right now it's less concerned about inflation, more concerned about economic growth and jobs." |

7. Key Timestamps for Reference

• US-Russia Negotiations and Putin’s Aims: [03:35–07:30]
• Giuliano on Ukraine’s Sovereignty and War Motives: [04:58, 06:13, 06:52]
• Fed Beige Book/Policy Outlook: [13:26–20:14, 21:52]
• Brooke Sutherland on Industrial Outlook: [23:19–26:25]
• Max Wasserman on Market Risk and Fed’s Mandate: [31:26–37:39]

Summary Table

| Topic | Speaker(s) | Highlight | Timestamp | |----------------------------------|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|---------------| | U.S. Russia-Ukraine Negotiations | Elise Giuliano | U.S. approach seen as favoring Russia, at odds with norms | 04:14 | | Russia’s War Motives | Elise Giuliano | War not about land, but sovereignty destruction | 04:58 | | Peace Prospects | Elise Giuliano | Low chance in near term; suffering continues | 08:53 | | U.S. Economic Outlook | Stuart Paul, Claudia Sahm | Weak consumer demand, divided Fed, risk of last cut | 14:08, 19:18 | | Tariffs & Industry | Brooke Sutherland| Tariff impacts, weak non-tech outlook, corporate uncertainty| 24:02, 25:31 | | Valuations & Liquidity | Max Wasserman | Tech risk, Fed backstopping, inflation hazard | 36:14, 37:39 |

Tone and Language

The conversation is analytical and pragmatic, frequently punctuated by concern about global stability, economic uncertainty, and the unpredictability of both war and markets. The tone is urgent yet grounded, reflective of the gravity of ongoing war and economic cross-currents.

This summary captures all substantial content, themes, quotes, and expert views discussed in the episode, providing clarity and context for listeners.