Shippers and Oil Traders Seek Details on Trump’s Convoy Plan

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Shippers and Oil Traders Seek Details on Trump’s Convoy Plan
Air Date: March 4, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the geopolitical, economic, and market implications of President Trump’s ongoing war with Iran, focusing on how global energy markets, inflation, and U.S. domestic politics are affected. Key guests include former Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Bloomberg’s national security lead Nick Wadhams, economist Steve Moore, and tech reporter Samantha Kelly. Additional discussion covers the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy response and Apple's new low-cost devices.

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1. The War in Iran – Geopolitical and Strategic Analysis

U.S.–Iran Conflict Update

• Latest developments: Rising military action, including a U.S. submarine sinking an Iranian warship (“the first time since World War II that an American sub had attacked a surface vessel” – Tim Stenovec, 02:20).
• Iranian response: Iran targeting U.S. bases, Gulf oil infrastructure, and regional Arab states, often more than Israel.

Antony Blinken Interview Highlights

• Strategy & Anticipation

  • “[Iran] has launched far more missiles and far more drones at the Arab countries in the Gulf and in the region than it has even at Israel, disproportionately so…. They want to try to inflict so much pain that we can't sustain the effort. And that's something that should have been anticipated.” (Antony Blinken, 02:48)

• Markets and Munitions as Deciding Factors

  • "There are two critical factors to look at. Markets and munitions markets... If [energy or financial markets] go in a southerly direction and stay that way, or in the case of oil in a northerly direction, that's going to be possibly a limiting factor." (03:41)
  • “[There’s] a race on to figure out who expends their munitions first and fastest... These things are not in infinite supply. The production times are very long.” (04:33)
  • Blinken also worries about strategic vulnerability if U.S. munitions are depleted and the implications for China or Russia.

• Potential ‘Off Ramp’ for the US:

  • “I think the president may simply declare victory... got rid of the ayatollah... degraded or destroyed their nuclear program... and as to the regime... Good luck to [the Iranian people]...” (05:06)

Analysts on Strategy & Endgame

• Mixed Messaging from the White House:

  • “The administration has given... contradictory explanations... desire for regime change, but then [claiming] it's not about regime change... eliminate the nuclear program, the ballistic missile program, drone strikes...” (Nick Wadhams, 08:09)

• Iran’s Ability to Rebuild:

  • “Iran has shown the capacity... to reconstitute [nuclear capabilities]. So... what does success actually look like here?” (Nick Wadhams, 09:10)

• Impact on Global Shipping & Security:

  • “One of the things that the administration wants to guard against is Iran’s ability to... choke off the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz.” (Nick Wadhams, 11:09)

• Security Outcome: Less secure, more secure, or TBD?

  • “If you weaken the leadership and create essentially a failed state in Iran... does it lead to new terrorist threats, increased refugee flows?... That’s a big open-ended question.” (Nick Wadhams, 12:15)
  • Trump’s argument: Immediate threat to U.S. bases, Iran holding the U.S. and Israel “hostage,” ballistic missiles, reconstituting nuclear program, and funding proxies. (12:15)

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2. Macro Impact: Oil, Inflation, and the Fed

Oil Price Shocks and Economic Consequences

• Uncertainty on Duration:
  • “The question... is how long is this going to last? How bad... is it going to get? Is it going to look more like Russia, Ukraine, or more like Hamas attacking Israel?” (Neel Kashkari via Steve Moore, 16:46)
• Current Oil Price Trends:
  • "WTI crude $74.70... ICE Brent $81.30... up more than 30% this year and we're not even three months into the year." (Carol Massar, 18:41)
  • "A rising oil price is a bad thing for the economy... But thank goodness we have a president... who's drill, baby, drill... We're the biggest oil and gas producer in the world.” (Steve Moore, 18:54)
• Historical Perspective:
  • Reminiscence of the 1970s energy crisis and U.S. improved energy position today. (19:55–20:13)

Affordability and Politics

• Voters’ Concerns:

  • “Affordability and bringing inflation down is the top domestic priority.... Even my wife... gets mad every time she goes to the grocery store.” (Steve Moore, 25:18)
  • “We have the tax cut that’s kicking in for people, which is a stimulus... wars are not good for stock markets, let’s face it.” (Steve Moore, 22:40–23:13)

• Trump’s Political Calculus:

  • “I don’t think Trump wants a long protracted involvement... He wants to get in these surgical strikes, decapitate their military and get out.” (Steve Moore, 23:26)
  • Discussion about party divisions over interventionism vs. ‘America First’: “Is the president... splintering the Republican Party?” (Carol Massar, 23:37)

• Economic Strategy for Midterms:

  • “The most important thing Trump can do... is to grow the economy and to deal with the affordability crisis.” (Steve Moore, 25:18)
  • “If by the time we come around to the midterms... he has a happy ending here, then that’ll certainly help Republicans.” (Steve Moore, 25:18)

Fed’s View and Macro Context

• Inflation Risks:
  • “It’s too soon to see inflation impact from the Iran conflict.” (Neel Kashkari, 16:46)
  • “Prices increased moderately in recent weeks... this all happened before the war in Iran started.” (Molly Smith, 43:02–43:26)
• Fed’s Response:
  • "The stance to keep rates on hold right now really is the pervasive view... The labor market appears to be stabilizing." (Molly Smith, 46:26)
  • “Producer price indexes... have been very firm... If firms are seeing these increased [input] costs, that usually translates to consumer prices [eventually].” (Molly Smith, 45:08)

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3. Tech & Business Updates

Apple’s New Budget Devices

• MacBook Neo Launch (Segment starts 31:52)

  • $599 price point – Apple’s most aggressive move against Windows PCs and Chromebooks for budget consumers.
  • "This is still very much a Mac computer... does almost everything you would expect from a higher-end MacBook Air." (Samantha Kelly, 32:41)
  • “For students, schools... casual users. A MacBook Air starts at $1,100. This is $600…” (Samantha Kelly, 33:15)
  • Powered by iPhone 16 Pro chip—efficiency and new form factor highlighted.
  • “It has a headphone jack—iPhones haven't had for years.” (Carol Massar, 38:15)
  • “It’s a gateway drug, you know.” (Carol Massar, 35:48)
  • “With an education discount, you can get this laptop for $499.” (Carol Massar, 39:48)

• Apple’s Market Strategy

  • Attempt to broaden market reach, drive ecosystem lock-in (iPhone, MacBook, Apple Watch).
  • "It's just making the playing field... giving something for everybody in many ways." (Samantha Kelly, 37:36)
  • Other launches: iPhone 17e budget line, new iPad Air at $600.

• AI and Productivity

  • “This is the greatest boom in productivity in the history of the world... you’re looking at a future in the next 15 years where we’re going to be seeing, you know, every truck will be automated.” (Steve Moore, 30:02)
  • Concerns and excitement over jobs' future in AI transition. “As long as the robots don’t know how to do economics, then I’ll be fine with it.” (Steve Moore, 31:05)

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Selected Notable Quotes & Moments

• Antony Blinken (on war objectives and exit scenarios):

  • “The president may simply declare victory. He’ll say, got rid of the ayatollah... hope [Iranian people] succeed. And if they don’t, it’s their fault—if they do, we’ll take the credit.” (05:06)

• Steve Moore (on the political dilemma):

  • “It’s Donald Trump’s party right now... But on the other hand, none of us... want to see [Afghanistan/Iraq repeats], least of all the president.” (24:19)

• Carol Massar (on affordability):

  • “Even my wife, who’s a Republican, she gets mad every time she goes to the grocery store. You have no idea what ground beef costs...” (25:18)

• Samantha Kelly (on Apple’s broader play):

  • “This is just one of several different products that they announced this week... It’s giving something for everybody in many ways.” (37:36)

• Molly Smith (on economic observations):

  • “It sounds like more of the same... Prices increased moderately in recent weeks... this all happened before the war in Iran started.” (42:52–43:26)
  • “If firms are seeing these increased input costs, that usually... translates to consumer prices [eventually].” (45:08)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Geopolitical Update and Blinken Interview – 02:00–05:45
• Nick Wadhams on U.S. Strategy – 06:06–12:15
• Oil, War, and Economic Impacts with Steve Moore – 17:19–27:44
• Apple’s New MacBook Neo – 31:52–40:10
• Fed, Inflation, and Beige Book Discussion – 42:30–48:28

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Summary:

This episode provides an incisive look at how Trump’s Iran conflict ripples through global security, commodities markets, and the American economy. Through candid interviews and expert panels, listeners receive context on military strategy, shifting economic priorities, and marketplace innovations—most notably in tech and energy. The tone is smart, fast-paced, and occasionally irreverent, with a balance of deep analysis and lighter business trend commentary.

Transcript

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio.

[Tim Stenovec]

A bunch of headlines, of course, involving the Middle east throughout the day, throughout the morning. First of all, you've got the US Saying it would attack deeper into Iran and the country's military capabilities are, quote, unquote, evaporating as the Middle east war continues.

[Carol Massar]

Tim Also, Naito's shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran and headed toward Turkish airspace.

[Tim Stenovec]

You've got a US Submarine sinking an Iranian warship in international waters. That coming from the Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth here in the U.S. marking the first time since World War II that an American sub had attacked a surface vessel.

[Carol Massar]

Also, a report about a possible, quote, off ramp for President Trump in his war in Iran. So this is the backdrop for a conversation that Bloomberg's David Gura had earlier today with former U.S. secretary of State Antony Blinken on the U.S. war and attacks on Iran. This for the Big Take podcast.

[Antony Blinken]

Well, look, it's certainly something that should have been anticipated. And what's one of the striking features so far is that Iran has, has launched far more missiles and far more drones at the Arab countries in the Gulf and in the region than it has even at Israel, disproportionately so. And in part, that's to. Because we, we have bases and a presence there, but they've gone beyond that. They've gone at infrastructure that these countries have, the oil infrastructure. They want to try to inflict so much pain that we can't sustain the effort. And that's something that should have been anticipated. And David, I think we're looking at a couple of things going forward in terms of where does this go and how does this, how does this end? And it seems to me that there are two critical factors to look at. Markets and munitions markets. Where are the oil markets, where's the stock market, where's the bond market? I know President Trump is very attentive to those. And if they go in a southerly direction and stay that way, or in the case of oil in a northerly direction, that's going to be possibly a limiting factor. Then munitions, there's really a race on to figure out who expends their munitions first and fastest. Do the Iranians put us in a position where we've used up a lot of interceptors to deal with defense or even our offensive missiles to take out their launchers? Or conversely, do they run out and we still have what we need? Again, I don't know the numbers here. I'm not privy to that, but it is something we have to be very, very attentive to because these things are not in infinite supply. The production times are very long. And of course, we're also using very, in many cases, very expensive weapons to take down $20,000 drones. That's not a good equation if you keep that going over time. What I'm worried about, one of the things I'm worried about, and this gets to the second and third order consequences, is we so deplete our arsenal and it takes a long time to rebuild it, that that puts us in a disadvantageous position when it comes to, say, a China or a Russia. All of those things need to be factored in. And again, it's one of the reasons why, if you're going to undertake something like this, you've got to make sure that you've, you factored all of that in. And again, it really should start with explaining to the American people why you're doing something. Why it's necessary. Why now?

[Nick Wadhams]

Do you see an off ramp anywhere at this point?

[Antony Blinken]

I do in the sense that one, as I said, I think the off ramp will be governed by this question of munitions and markets. And then what is that off ramp? I think the president may simply declare victory. He'll say, got rid of the ayatollah. We diminished or degraded or destroyed their nuclear program. Again, we did the same thing to the missile program. We did the same thing to the Navy. And as to the regime, well over the Iranian people, good luck to them, hope they succeed. And if they don't, it's their fault if they do. We'll, we'll take the credit. How Iran responds to that remains to be seen.

[Tim Stenovec]

And that, of course, is former US Secretary of state under President Biden. That is Antony Blinken with Bloomberg's David Gore, co host of this Weekend on Bloomberg tv, Bloomberg Radio. You can catch that on Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7am Eastern. You can also catch the entire Blinket interview in full on today's Big Take podcast. Right now, though, we want to talk with a member of our own Bloomberg News team as well.

[Public/IBM Ad Voice]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

For more geopolitics, let's bring in Nick Wadhams. He's Bloomberg News national security team leader. He joins us from the Bloomberg News Washington, D.C. bureau. I was struck at what the former secretary of state said at the end there, the idea of the US Declaring victory just based on certain things that have happened right now, the idea of an off ramp, that his comments coupled with what you're hearing from Washington, what we're seeing out of Iran, what we're hearing from the Pentagon, what does it look like the end of this war would look like, Nick?

[Nick Wadhams]

Well, every signal we're getting from the Pentagon and the Trump administration is that they really are nowhere near an end, that they're saying it could take many more weeks. And in fact, the Pentagon briefing we got this morning was really a discussion about how their strategy is changing. So whereas they had targeted air defenses, coastal defenses, ballistic missile launchers, anything that would pose a threat to US Forces and allies in the region, they're now planning to move inland now that they say they've gained control of Iran's skies and want to launch more precision strikes. So hitting that issue that former Secretary Blinken talked about there on the munitions, that they don't necessarily need to intercept as much of the Iranian outgoing missiles because they've decimated a lot of that capacity and they're now shifting to using other weapons. Dumb bombs, GPS guided munitions that they have in very large supply. So so far, the administration is not signaling what the end would look like or giving any indication that we're getting anywhere near it. In fact, they're saying that they're only going to ramp up operations over the next several days.

[Tim Stenovec]

Hey, Nick, I get it. That military strategy in any kind of war activity, it evolves, I guess, as the situation evolves. But having said that, is there any really clear messaging? I want to go back to kind of the original question about why we are there, what we're trying to achieve, and, you know, is this really our war? Or if Israel hadn't seemed so keen on doing something, would we be talking about this right now and about U.S. involvement?

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Right.

[Nick Wadhams]

So there've been a lot of reporting out there that the Israelis, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed the US into this war and was really an instigating factor. So that's one concern. You've even seen that concern expressed from some of President Trump's most loyal supporters in the MAGA wing, his party. And the administration has given sort of succeeding, sometimes contradictory explanations for why it's doing this, whether it's a desire for regime change. President Trump had indicated that. Then Hegseth said, you know, it's not about regime change, but the regime has changed. They've also talked about the need to eliminate the nuclear program, the ballistic missile program, drone strikes. So you have seen them sort of gradually refine and shift that message. And over the last several days, Nick,

[Carol Massar]

I just want to jump in, honestly, I thought the strikes last year depleted the, and dismantled Iran's nuclear system and nuclear weapons capabilities.

[Nick Wadhams]

I mean, they had said that they, that those, President Trump they used, word he used was obliterated. He said that it had obliterated Iran's nuclear program. But part of the messaging you've seen them give, including President Trump in the State of the Union, was that they were continuing to rebuild that nuclear program. And that then raises the big question about the endgame. So all of these capacities that the US Is destroying and has been targeting over the last days and then since last year on ballistic missiles, the nuclear program, drones. Iran would theoretically have the ability to reconstitute those programs over time, which then leads you to think, okay, well, the only way to get them to stop doing that is, is by changing the regime. But that's now what the administration is saying. They don't want to do that. They're not interested in regime change. So that's why we're still asking these Questions about what does success actually look like here? Because you can decimate those programs. Iran has shown the capacity and the willingness in the past to reconstitute them. So the administration is not so far saying, okay, here's the end point. Now, obviously they don't want to say that in part because they don't want to tip off the Iranians, but you get the sense that they are intentionally leaving that open ended so they don't get boxed in one way or the other.

[Tim Stenovec]

Hey, you know, Nick, a lot has been made of this US Submarine sinking an Iranian warship in international waters. First time since World War II that an American sub had attacked a surface vessel. There's that going on. But you know, I keep thinking about what does the US and Israel have to achieve for the US to be more secure. This is about national security and this is a. We know a country. You know, Iran has hated America, or so we laugh. It's not funny. But, you know, chanting about death to America for a long, long time. So what do we need to do to make it so that the US is actually more secure against Iran? Which I think should be kind of the end game, if that's what this is all about. I don't know.

[Nick Wadhams]

Right. And there have been a lot of questions about, you know, the U.S. strategy because there was a big question. Well, Iran did not have the capability of hitting the US mainland with any ballistic missiles. So what was the imminent threat there? I think what you're seeing in the case of the Navy is one of the things that the administration wants to guard against is Iran's ability to basically choke off the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz. So they say, okay, we eliminate the Navy, that eliminates a major tool that Iran had to be able to threaten global shipping. So there was that issue. But you know, the sort of second and third order consequences there of how that would impact the US mainland. Well, I mean, that's a, a bigger and sort of more open ended question. Obviously, if Iran were able to clamp down on energy flows that might impact oil prices at home. But of course Iran was not going to clamp down on that, on those flows if the United States had not attacked it. So there's also a bit of a chicken and egg situation there as well.

[Tim Stenovec]

So is there, is it. Forgive me for putting you on the spot, but are we less secure or more secure or tbd?

[Nick Wadhams]

Well, I mean, so some of the President's critics have argued the way that we would be less secure is by, you know, if you weaken the leadership and create essentially a failed state in Iran. Where does that lead? Does it lead to new terrorist threats, increased refugee flows and things like that? Well, that's a big open ended question and a huge unknown for the future. The president's argument is no. There was an imminent threat to US Bases and they say that Iran had essentially held the US And Israel hostage. They said it had a conventional gun to the US Head over a long time and that this was a threat that they needed to deal with now that Iran was reconstituting its nuclear program, which would have posed a threat to Israel, it was developing ballistic missiles that would eventually have the ability to hit more U.S. targets and that it continued to harass and threaten U.S. allies through the funding of proxies in the region. So they say those threats were the imminent threats that essentially needed to be dealt with now that presidents over decades had refused to tackle and that Trump now is the one who's finally dealing with the problem. And as they say, Iran had, you know, it was a slogan, death to America. So that was a threat they wanted to deliver on one way or another. So, you know, I mean, it really depends sort of whose side you're on here.

[Carol Massar]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Carol Massar]

We've been trying, Carol, to think about the economic effects and the macro effects of this continued war in Iran. President Trump's war with Iran threatens it to deliver a severe blow to a global economy that's still grappling with the impact of that historic tariff hike Free Europe Sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession for the U.S. they would place the Fed in an impossible position, stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. On that, Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed, says it's too soon to see inflation impact from the Iran conflict. He spoke with Bloomberg's Michael McKee yesterday at the Bloomberg Invest conference in New York.

[Steve Moore]

Now the question I think that we are wrestling with and markets are wrestling with is how long is this going to last? How bad is it going to get? Is it going to look more like Russia, Ukraine, or is it going to look more like Hamas attacking Israel? And that's going to have effects on monetary policy. I don't think anybody thinks when Russia invaded Ukraine and the inflation that resulted that the Fed should have just ignored that. I mean, that would have been the true transitory call. It's a one time effect. Just look through it. I think right now it's just too soon to know what imprint this has on inflation and for how long.

[Carol Massar]

That was Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, yesterday at Bloomberg Invest with Mike McKee. For more of that conversation, you can check it out on the Bloomberg terminal [e-mail] for more on the macro, the Fed and more. We welcome back Steve Moore, co founder of the nonprofit Unleash Prosperity. He's a former economic and senior policy adviser to President Trump back in 2016 and 2024. He served as chief economist and Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Heritage foundation for 12 years. He's also the author of Trumponomics Inside the America First Plan to Revive Our Economy and the Trump Economic Miracle. He's back here, guys.

[Tim Stenovec]

He just ran across town.

[Carol Massar]

Is Neel Kashkari right? Is it too soon to know about the economic effects or the inflationary effects of this war?

[Steve Moore]

Yeah, I think it is too early to tell. I mean, what we know from the first, what, three or four days is that the, you know, the worst case scenarios have not turned out right. I mean, people were predicting maybe oil at $100 a barrel and you know, a crash in the economy. And the stock market, we haven't seen that. Last time I checked, oil was at about $75, $76 a barrel. That's, you know, a significant increase from where we were. But we have not seen the worst case scenario and that's good news. But yeah, look, I think Neil is right that we don't quite know what to expect here and I agree with his assessment. Is this a three or four week incursion or is it, you know, a three year incursion?

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. So WTI crude 7470 right now, ICE Brent is at 8130 right now. Still though, those, those are up more than 30% this year and we're not even three months into the year.

[Steve Moore]

Well, look, I mean, pretty sharp uptick, let's be clear. I mean, a rising oil price is a bad thing for the economy. It does, it does put pressure on inflation. It does make our economy weaker because let's face it, energy is the master resource. Everything that we have and everything we produce depends on energy. We'll see. Look, thank goodness we have a president in the White House right now who's drill, baby, drill. One thing I think investors have to understand, unlike I'm a little older than you all are, I mean, I grew up in the 70s when literally OPEC had a blade at our neck and they could, they could thrust us into a recession and they could, you know, pull us out of recession. And that's not the case today. We're the biggest oil and gas producer in the world. And that has to some extent, not fully, but to some extent has cushioned us from the effects of Middle east oil.

[Tim Stenovec]

Steve, I remember the odd, even license plate. I was super late.

[Steve Moore]

I remember that, too. So you are old enough.

[Tim Stenovec]

I remember I was super little. But I do remember having, I think

[Carol Massar]

you read about it in history.

[Tim Stenovec]

No, but two cars in the driveway with an odd.

[Steve Moore]

Well, I remember we felt being my parents and I and I grew up in Chicago, we, we would pack up in our, in our, you know, station wagon back then, and we'd get in line and we'd wave it 14th in line to get gas in the morning. So I remember those days.

[Tim Stenovec]

But having said that, I guess what I'm wondering, and I want to go back to what Neel Kashkari told our Michael McKee that, you know, it's just too early to make the call. You have an incredible advantage, having worked in some side, you know, with the president. And on that first day on Monday, we had a sound bite of the defense secretary saying, this is going to be quick and fast and so on and so forth. And you had the president saying, we're going to take as long as it takes to do this. Do you think they had a clear strategy of how much this would take, how long it would take, how difficult this would be to do?

[Steve Moore]

I can't. I really wish I could answer that question. I don't know. I mean, I did visit the, the president a few weeks ago, and it was clear that he had Iran on his mind back then about what to do, about why.

[Carol Massar]

What did he say to you that?

[Steve Moore]

No, he just said, I'm trying to think about what the next step in Iran is. But, I mean, it's interesting because Trump has not been an interventionist. He ran against military adventurism. And yet I really believe part of this was a humanitarian effort. I think he really was bothered by the tens of thousands of people that were dying under this murderous regime. So I think there was a big part of this, I really do, that was humanitarian.

[Tim Stenovec]

But it's interesting. I mean, we can get into a big geopolitical about when presidents and governments, particularly the United States, decide to intervene and not intervene. Right. And it doesn't always feel like there's a rhyme or reason or a playbook on all of this, because it does. You know, if you think about national security, Iran's been difficult for decades. And so you wonder about why this happened now. Why do you think this happened now?

[Steve Moore]

I think it was because of the murdering that was going on of the citizens in the street. But you're right. I mean, look, there has been, as long as you and I have been in our work careers and in our early years of our life, there's been complete turmoil in the Middle East. I mean, that's been nonstop. And so I think Trump would like to go down in history as the guy who brought peace and prosperity to that region. Whether he can pull that off is another matter. But I think that's one of the things that's really guiding him.

[Tim Stenovec]

But is he, you know, what happened to affordability for Americans guiding him? As we count down to the midterms, which feels like a long time away, but we already had some primaries. Right. Just this week, just yesterday. So I'm just curious, how does this fit in? And if you were advising the president at this point, would you be like, Mr. President, you got to be thinking about what's impacting Americans?

[Steve Moore]

Well, look, if the price of oil continues to go up like we're just talking about that makes the affordability problem harder to solve, obviously, because of oil's importance and the whole basket of goods. I do think, look, fundamentally I really believe we have a strong economy. We got some numbers out today from the ADP showing private sector job growth up. Government continues to shrink in terms of size. We, we do have the, you know, the tax cut that's kicking in for people, which is a stimulus. So I remain bullish. But, you know, wars are not good for stock markets, let's face it.

[Tim Stenovec]

Well, it's funny that you went there, forgive me, but it's like we do also have a president that we know that watches the stock market.

[Steve Moore]

Yes.

[Tim Stenovec]

So can we. Is that, you know, is there a presidential put here in terms of how long this conflict goes on that we can assume the president's going.

[Steve Moore]

I don't think Trump wants a long protracted involvement in the Middle East. I don't think he, I think he wants to get in these surgical strikes, decapitate their military and get out.

[Carol Massar]

Well, he's decapitated leadership, did the same thing in Venezuela in a different way. And you're comment about the humanitarian element was interesting to me because that doesn't seem to gel with MAGA in America. First, the idea, and it's kind of like an old school US which is a term I've used with you in the past with you don't agree with the president on tariffs. You're more of an old school Republican does. Is the president, in your view, splintering the Republican Party? Because there are those folks who say we have no business getting involved in other countries wars we have no business getting involved in other countries politics. We are about America first, not America alone.

[Steve Moore]

Look, these are all things that I've been pondering. A lot of us have. Look, it's Donald Trump's party right now. There's no question about it. He has very, very high approval ratings with Republican voters, not so much with Democratic voters. And so my sense is that clearly Republican voters are rallying around Trump and the flag right now. And, but on the other hand, none of us, I mean, you know, we saw what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan and nobody wants to see that happen again, least of all the President of the United States. So I don't, I don't have answers to these questions because it all happened so quickly.

[Carol Massar]

So, so let's talk a little bit about between now and the midterms. And I know the economy is what you focus on and economics is what you focus on. If this makes the President's path and Republicans path in the midterms more challenging, what are some priorities you believe the President needs to do communicate to Americans for affordability. So then Republicans are successful.

[Steve Moore]

There's no doubt affordability and bringing inflation down is the top domestic priority for the country. And the people have spoken out about that. With respect to what's going on in the Middle east right now, if, if by the time we come around to the midterms, which are still six, seven, eight months away, then, and he has a happy ending here, then that'll certainly help Republicans. But look, I'm going to be honest with you, it's very difficult for Republicans to hold the House. It just is. I mean, usually the average amount of seats that a out of power party picks up is about 25 and Republicans have two or three seat majority. So, you know, you do the math there. It's very difficult. The Senate I think is even in play. I know a lot of Republicans think they've got a firm grip on that, grip on it, but I'm not so sure. The most important thing Trump can do to ensure that he has a Republican Congress is to grow the economy and to deal with the affordability crisis. You're quite right that even my wife, who's a Republican, she gets mad every time she goes to the grocery store. You have no idea what ground beef costs and you know, I have no idea what, you know, insurance costs and those kinds of things. So.

[Carol Massar]

But she's not alone.

[Steve Moore]

She is not.

[Tim Stenovec]

So go back to what was a focus for us last week was the State of the Union and the President came out and said Kind of solve the affordability issues.

[Molly Smith]

Had we.

[Steve Moore]

I'm on the way. I think if you look at the latest inflation reports, they show it coming down. You know, the Fed target, one of the things to think about is the Fed target has been 2%. I think the American people want zero. Right. In other words, if I were advising Kevin Warsh when he comes in, don't shoot for two, shoot for zero. Because we've had so much. The reason people are angry is because the last five years the price of things are up 25%.

[Carol Massar]

Maybe that's a communication issue because the people don't necessarily understand the difference between disinflation.

[Steve Moore]

Exactly.

[Carol Massar]

Deflation. And they think about it like gas prices. And I think that's.

[Steve Moore]

That's right. So let me explain what you're talking about, because this is important. President Trump says this all the time. Sometimes I say it all the time. Politicians say we're going to put prices down. No, there's a difference between bringing prices down and bringing inflation down. In fact, we wouldn't want. Deflation is the worst of all things. So we want to stabilize prices and bring them down. And that's why I say let's shoot for zero. By the way, I think Kevin Warshunds that I believe he's going to be

[Tim Stenovec]

an inflation, you know, people say about the affordability issue, at least we've had some guests here. Steven, I'm curious for you to weigh in on this is that it's, you know, when we talk about housing affordability and different things, we need to pay people more in terms of incomes not matching up with what we've seen in inflation. Why don't we incent more companies rather than, you know, giving them tax breaks and then they do big stock buybacks? Why don't we incent to pay workers more?

[Steve Moore]

Why don't we first of all and

[Tim Stenovec]

spread some of the wealth around?

[Steve Moore]

If you look, we just plugged and chugged the numbers. So over the last year, the average median income family in the United States has seen a $2,500 increase after inflation in their income. And that's a Pretty large increase. $2,500.

[Narrator/Announcer]

What percentage increase is that?

[Steve Moore]

Census data.

[Tim Stenovec]

No, but what percentage of an income is that?

[Steve Moore]

So the average family makes about 75,000. So it's maybe a 3 or 4% gain. But the point is it's not down, it's up. Affordability is up for most people, although I bet a lot of people would, would object to my saying that. I'm just talking. But you Asked me about the tax cut. We, the average family this year is going to get a fifteen hundred dollar to two thousand dollars reduction in their taxes. So you had the increase in their before tax income in real terms and then you add the tax cut, you're talking about a $4,000 gain. So it wasn't, it wasn't a tax cut for rich people. It just wasn't.

[Carol Massar]

But I will say that those people are also getting hit with, proportionally with, with the tariffs too, so.

[Steve Moore]

Well, that's a fair point.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Steve Moore]

So the average, you know, this is an important point too is that, yeah. The average family is by some estimates paid about $1,200 more for terrorists.

[Carol Massar]

That's a fair point, at least in the data that you're citing.

[Steve Moore]

And that by the way, is going to be a big issue as we resolve this issue of who gets the money. You know, there's $175 billion tariff collection.

[Carol Massar]

There are, there are a lot of lawyers being paid a lot.

[Public/IBM Ad Voice]

Sure.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, before we let you go.

[Antony Blinken]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

I just want to get your thoughts on AI because we were at an event yesterday, Bloomberg Invest, and it was an investment event, but no question the conversation was just dominated by AI. I was in a dinner with, with about a dozen CTOs who were painting this picture of a world where productivity is just completely shifting. I know that nobody knows the effect of AI on productivity, but how are you looking at it?

[Steve Moore]

I'm looking at this as the greatest boom in productivity in the history of the world. And so that will cause adjustments. But it's exciting. I mean, you're going to, you're looking at a future in the next 15 years where we're going to be seeing, you know, every truck will be automated. You know, we'll see people rising out of their wheelchairs and walking. Will we have sight to the blind? I mean, this is the most exciting thing. I'm on the board of a company called Lightspeed. We build houses with robots. So we'll be able to build houses at half the cost and half the time. Think about what that's, you know, you asked me about affordability. Think about what that's going to mean to the price of a new home. It's going to fall. So I'm mostly excited about this future,

[Tim Stenovec]

but are you worried about the jobs disclosures?

[Samantha Kelly]

Sure.

[Steve Moore]

But you know, look, I mean, if you're concerned about jobs, that's what, you know, people said in, you know, 1920s when we invented the invention that lowered the most jobs in history was the farm tractor. I mean, used to be 30 out of 100Americans were working in agriculture. So that kind of adjustment has happened before and people are going to have to be prepared for it. And look, people are afraid. They're afraid of the AI revolution. I kind of look at it as the half glass Apple. As long as the, as long as the robots don't know how to do economics, then I'll be fine with it. It's a joke, folks. No, I know, I know.

[Carol Massar]

No, no, no.

[Tim Stenovec]

That is data set.

[Carol Massar]

I will say Mike McKee sent me a note a few weeks ago about how it was one of the jobs that is most vulnerable to AI.

[Steve Moore]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Carol Massar]

I'm sorry.

[Steve Moore]

I'm 66, so I don't have to worry about it too much.

[Narrator/Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tim Stenovec]

Want to talk a little bit about some new products from Apple that Tim is already thinking about buying? You got to rolling out the $599 MacBook Neo, biggest push for the company yet into low end laptops. So it's really looking to go after Windows PCs and Chromebooks for budget minded shoppers. You're budget minded. I know about a coffee thing that you bought that wasn't so well, that's

[Carol Massar]

because I, that's because I don't spend all my money on computers. I can buy a computer.

[Molly Smith]

I'm sorry, did I say that out loud?

[Carol Massar]

It's fine.

[Molly Smith]

Everyone listening.

[Carol Massar]

That was a gift.

[Tim Stenovec]

His dad listening.

[Carol Massar]

Yes, that's a gift. Yeah, that was a gift. Bloomberg News consumer tech reporter Samantha Kelly joins us here in the studio. $599 a price point for a Mac that I think is not familiar to anyone. Yeah, because that's so inexpensive, it kind of puts it on par with Chromebooks and with some like, lower end windows PCs.

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

What can it do?

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah. So this is still very much a Mac computer. It looks like a MacBook. You know, it's a little bit slimmer. I'm sorry, it's a little bit, the display is a little bit slimmer, but it's still light, fits in your bag. It does everything, almost everything that you would expect from a higher end MacBook Air. However, the computing, the processor isn't quite, quite there. But anything you would need, you know, navigating the web documents, some light editing basically to your point, like a substitute alternative for a Chromebook or a lower end PC Are people going to go

[Tim Stenovec]

for it for consumers? Like have we been looking for this?

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah, I think absolutely. I think like students, schools, kids are using Chromebooks, businesses, I think casual users, I mean a MacBook Air can, you know, starts at $1,100. This is $600 and you're getting like

[Tim Stenovec]

popping on the plane, watching movies.

[Molly Smith]

Yeah.

[Samantha Kelly]

And the colors are fun.

[Tim Stenovec]

Well, will you be able to watch movies?

[Carol Massar]

Oh yeah, yeah.

[Steve Moore]

Ok.

[Samantha Kelly]

Absolutely.

[Carol Massar]

But it also kind of is in the iPads turf which is interesting.

[Samantha Kelly]

Yes. It's one of the reasons why Apple has delayed this for so long. And they actually announced a new iPad Air this week that is also the same price, $600. But you know, people, it's a different form factor. So you know, you could be on the couch, you could have, you know, keyboard connected but not everybody wants that. Yeah, you could have a laptop experience for you know, half the price almost.

[Carol Massar]

So why shouldn't someone get this? Like why shouldn't I get this? And should I go for a $1200 computer instead?

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah, I think it depends how you're going to use it. If you're like a heavy user, if you have, you know, you know, heavy, if you're a gamer, if you have like projects, if you're a professional, like an artist or something like that, you're not going to want but if you're just going to, you know, if you're taking in class or if you're going to bring a computer on the weekend, you want to check your work email, it basically does everything you really need. And what's really interesting is it now is powered by an iPhone chip which is one of the reasons why they were able to keep it lower. The same chip from an iPhone 16 Pro, which is not that old, is now powering this laptop. Just kind of goes to show the efficiency, how they're able to make such powerful chips now. And now they can put it in new products.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah, they can do it. And it comes in citrus, silver, indigo and blush color options. Which one will you, which one will you maybe purchase?

[Carol Massar]

I don't know but I'm looking at Apple stock. It's down 210 of 1% and it's not, you know, launched. You can't really look at Apple stock on a launch day. We always do that when it, when there's a big launch day in September or something and a new iPhone is unveiled. One thing we do though is, or one thing we don't do is really pay that much attention to this revenue line when we're Looking at company earnings. I mean, people care about services, they care about iPhone. And does that like, it's surprising to me that we're talking about a new Mac when you know, investors care most about those much bigger categories.

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah. I mean, what's interesting? Well, first of all, the Mac in general, the category was down over the holiday season. But I think this is also a bigger play to just get more people into the ecosystem. You know, you might have an iPhone

[Tim Stenovec]

after a whole different market.

[Steve Moore]

This is way cheaper than an iPhone.

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah, you might end then you might have, you finally get this and then you're like, you know what? I should probably have an Apple Watch at this point. It kind of like opens the door to more.

[Carol Massar]

It's a gateway drug, you know.

[Molly Smith]

Guilty.

[Tim Stenovec]

Because if you think about it like we have a home that's got the laptops, that has the iPads. Like once you kind of lean into that Apple world and universe, you just kind of keep adding on. You just do. Right, like, I don't know, same thing.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. You still have the first Apple Watch though. That's the difference between us.

[Tim Stenovec]

It was a second, it was the second iteration. And I've been wearing that I have yet to update. I've actually gone old school like on watches all of a sudden. And I just, I don't know. But we'll think, but I do think about, there's got to be a point where Apple says, listen, we've got the Apple lovers, full disclosure, you know, and we're pretty transparent about it. But at some point you've got to figure out how do you grow your market? Yeah, right. And who you can go after.

[Samantha Kelly]

Well, that's exactly it. So. And it's also, you might have, you know, you might have an iPad, you might have an iPhone or something like that, but these MacBooks are expensive. So maybe you have it, maybe a partner has it. But do you really want your like 14 year old kid to have a high end MacBook? No, but how about a yellow MacBook Neo? It's kind of that perfect little harmony in between.

[Tim Stenovec]

Except they go to college and then they need to do like spreadsheets and stupid stuff.

[Samantha Kelly]

You could do that on this. Yeah, yeah. I mean it's, I mean it's very much a functional laptop.

[Carol Massar]

Does it solve, I'm going to pull a Mark Gurman here. Does it solve Apple's AI problem?

[Samantha Kelly]

It's interesting you say that. No, it certainly does. It, it says in some ways that it will, some of the computing power behind it will be able to better handle AI in the future. I think it's. I really do think it's going to attract more people. I think it's going to have some purchasing power. But no, there are lots of other AI problems that they're still working through for sure.

[Tim Stenovec]

What does it mean? As we said, this gives Apple the ability to go after a different part of the marketplace and then maybe get people into the Apple universe. Having said that, what else are we anticipating comes at a cheaper price point?

[Narrator/Announcer]

Yeah.

[Samantha Kelly]

Well, this week they announced. This is just one of several different products that they announced this week. So we also had the iPhone 17e, which is its budget line, also at a more affordable price as well. Does less, you know, that you would want in like a pro or even a. Not a basic line. No, it's sort of like. And it competes more with other budget phones out there, like Samsung. There's like a series. And. And so it just, it's kind of just lowering the. Or rather it's just making the playing field. It's giving something for everybody in many ways. And so we've seen that in different categories, but we haven't seen that with the MacBook. And this iPhone is just another iteration. It looks just like the previous version, really.

[Carol Massar]

I'm going back to the new laptop because it has a headphone jack.

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

Which iPhones haven't had for years.

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah. It's funny. Yeah. They said that this morning. Usually they have these flashy keynotes and this was kind of a very much a dial down. We were all standing. I don't think I've ever stood for an Apple keynote before. We were in this tiny little room.

[Carol Massar]

You did this in New York?

[Samantha Kelly]

It was in New York. Yeah. Yeah, it was here. And they had demos. We were able to try out the new products and they showed the video and you're looking at everyone's like, oh, the colors. The colors are very fun. And then they, they mentioned the headphone jack and I was just like, oh, that's interesting. Just as they're moving obviously toward, you know, wire, you know, AirPods, all the. It's different lineup there, but it is, you know, having lost still there.

[Tim Stenovec]

4, 5.

[Carol Massar]

Here's the thing about.

[Tim Stenovec]

My husband actually bought me a wire, like a cord.

[Carol Massar]

You were wearing them yesterday.

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

And she has, she has this air. These AirPod cords. They hook, they make wide arms. They make the AirPods into wired headphones.

[Tim Stenovec]

So basically you put it around your neck.

[Antony Blinken]

Right.

[Tim Stenovec]

You put them in.

[Carol Massar]

So it's all convenience of AirPods with none of the Convenience.

[Tim Stenovec]

What's crazy is I was walking into the Bloomberg Invest event and then all of a sudden I look, I'm like, shoot, I lost one. And so luckily we just went back. It must have slipped out. I must not had it in tight enough. But I'm like, that's funny. I can't go home to my husband's.

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah, right again.

[Tim Stenovec]

He's like, just get headphones. Like, just do it.

[Carol Massar]

I do have Apple care for AirPods, though, and I think that covers them

[Tim Stenovec]

when you lose them.

[Samantha Kelly]

I don't know if you're a budget shopper, though. You. You might not have AirPods. You would need a headphone jack.

[Carol Massar]

Good point. Yeah, very good point.

[Tim Stenovec]

What's old is new again.

[Carol Massar]

All right.

[Tim Stenovec]

In technology.

[Carol Massar]

Cool. Check this one out.

[Tim Stenovec]

Great stuff.

[Carol Massar]

With an education discount, you can get this laptop for 499crus kind of guy.

[Tim Stenovec]

Indigo, blush, silver.

[Carol Massar]

The price is right. It doesn't matter.

[Tim Stenovec]

Lean into your blush.

[Carol Massar]

You can get a six pack of these for like the price of a.

[Samantha Kelly]

Yeah, you can be bold with the color. It's like you can just Citrus. Okay. Yeah, he's not going to Decentralist summer leading into the summer.

[Carol Massar]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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starting with your financial goals, not a formula. At Oppenheimer, we put the full strength of our long standing expertise to work understanding your life and your ambitions and designing the precise strategies that build and protect your wealth. With confidence across this generation and the next. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth Management Capital Markets Investment banking You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tim Stenovec]

Some economic news this morning that did impact the trade on this Wednesday. Let's get to it with Molly Smith. She's Bloomberg News Economics editor. She like we are poring over the beige book. Good to have you here in studio. Page three.

[Nick Wadhams]

Good for you.

[Tim Stenovec]

All right.

[Molly Smith]

What a fast writer.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah.

[Molly Smith]

Little show off show. Total show off.

[Tim Stenovec]

What jumps out for you?

[Molly Smith]

Honestly, it sounds like more of the same. Yeah, I know that's not very newsy, but that's what I'm reading, at least so far. But you know, Tim's faster than me, so maybe he's seen something different on page five by now.

[Carol Massar]

Well, I go to page two and I go to what to prices, because I'm interested in what these districts are reporting when it comes to inflation. Prices increased moderately in recent weeks with eight districts reporting moderate price growth and foreseeing slight or modest increases. Many districts reported that costs rose across several non labor inputs, including insurance, utilities and energy, metals and other raw materials. An issue for inflation or is that to be expected?

[Molly Smith]

I mean, I think that the worrisome sign about that is that this all happened before the war in Iran started over the weekend. So those are really like, you know, things that you might start to think about, particularly on the energy side as far as like what might be a risk for the inflation outlook here domestically. Should this be a more prolonged conflict if we really start to see a sustained energy shock in oil and gas markets? Too soon to say that just yet. And of course if this starts to impact other parts of the supply chain and logistics, we're just not seeing that yet. But so far it seems like this is a fairly benign looking beige book. Also on the employment side, stable is what most districts seem to report and that's what exactly what the Fed wants to see see. And that really jives with the characterization that Powell and others have been saying that the labor market appears to be stabilizing. Got that a little bit with adp this morning and we'll probably, we'll try to see that with the jobs report on Friday as well. But there might be a little bit of noise with some other factors in that one.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah, I thought it was interesting too. I mean that they highlighted things about firms continuing to pass tariff related cost increases through to their customers. Others began to do so after having, having absorbed previous increases. And we thought we would get to a point in the stage where companies were like got to move it along, got to move it along. And the other thing I think is interesting is in terms of labor, we saw wages rising at a modest or moderate pace in most districts, firms competing for talent in select areas, including the skilled trade. So you know, it just to me, Molly, reminds what I feel like. A lot of guests come say that we're not quite there on inflation and it feels like the scales are, are tipped, that it could go higher. That's even backing out the war in Iran.

[Molly Smith]

Totally. And I feel like what we've seen in the latest, the last couple of producer price indexes, so this is the wholesale inflation level, they've been very firm. You're not seeing that as much on the consumer price side, but PPE tends to lead what consumer prices see. So it's really just a matter of time then if firms are seeing these increased interests put costs that usually somewhere down the next couple of months, that usually does translate to consumer prices.

[Carol Massar]

Any of this, and we're going to talk about this at 3 o' clock with Steve Moore, a former adviser to a former economic adviser, President Trump. Fed Governor Stephen Myron said it's still appropriate to continue cutting rates.

[Tim Stenovec]

Wait, he does what? Shocker.

[Carol Massar]

I know, I know.

[Tim Stenovec]

Sorry.

[Carol Massar]

But it does raise a question if, if anything that could happen at least on a macro level, not just in the US but outside of the US With Iran with prices increasing because of shipping issues, because of I don't know what happens with energy, if that changes his view or changes anyone on the Fed view who is actually dovish right now.

[Molly Smith]

I mean, I think we, we've known for a while Myron's an outlier here, so we'll leave.

[Tim Stenovec]

Hence why Carol was like, welcome to the show, Captain. Obviously, kid, I can put his views

[Molly Smith]

in one bucket for everybody else. Yeah, definitely much more wary of the inflation risks to the mandate, which is why the stance to keep rates on hold right now really is the pervasive view. And that especially with what we've seen with the labor market recently, there do seem to be signs more validating that stabilization stance. This doesn't call for a job market that needs immediate rescue in any way.

[Tim Stenovec]

I want to ask you about the going to the overall economic activity. And they said activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in seven of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, while the number of districts reporting flat or declining activity increased from 4 in the peer in the prior period to 5 in the current. And they said although consumer spending increased slightly in balance, two districts reported ongoing declines. Many noted that sales were dampened by economic uncertainty, increased price sensitivity and lower income consumers pulling back on spending. And again, not a new narrative. But you do wonder if there's still this feeling of unease and this should we assume this is prior to what happened last weekend in terms of the invasion on Iraq? None of that is included in here.

[Molly Smith]

Yeah. No, this is before the Iran war. So this is Iran right now. Yeah, we're. I remember that behind us.

[Tim Stenovec]

I remember that one too.

[Steve Moore]

Sorry. But go ahead.

[Molly Smith]

That's all right. I mean I think, you know, there have been some economists lately who have raised some doubts about what we call this K shape economy.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah.

[Molly Smith]

So that idea that wealthier consumers are propelling all of spending right now and that lower income consumers are really falling behind, I think where their doubt stems from not so much that the wealthy are continuing to spend, but just how much low income consumers are not spending as much, how much are they pulling back? And when you see, I mean granted all of this is anecdotal data. Like we don't have any hard numbers in this report. This is just what Fed presidents and their districts observe as far as activity in their areas. That still speaks to though that this trend is very much still happening. And you do see evidence in the hard data that would support the idea that lower income consumers are spending less.

[Tim Stenovec]

All right, going to leave it there. Listen, thank you so much. We're on to though, the jobs report. Just real quickly before I let you go, what are we anticipating on Friday?

[Molly Smith]

It's going to be a tough read. I think the payrolls number there's there was significant strike activity in February as well as winter weather that could make the payrolls figure a little messy. So we're looking at the unemployment rate to keep it clean.

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