Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: S&P 500 Closes at Record High in Tech-Led Advance
Date: December 23, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Key Guests: Alexandra Semenova (Bloomberg), David Schassler (Vaneck Funds), Travis McCready (JLL), Sid Philipp (Bloomberg Aviation)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the record-setting close of the S&P 500, reflecting on the forces driving U.S. equities, the optimism of Wall Street forecasts, and the tech sector's outsized role. Guests offer their perspectives on market risks, thematic investment strategies for 2026, trends in life sciences real estate, and the state of the airline industry as it faces record demand amid operational hurdles.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wall Street’s Relentless Optimism and the S&P 500 Forecasts

Guest: Alexandra Semenova | [02:39–09:43]

• Record-High Predictions:
  Wall Street strategists predict 11% average gains for U.S. stocks in 2026, with S&P 500 targets ranging from 7,000 (the “lowest” forecast, still bullish) to 8,100 (Oppenheimer), marking an unusually tight consensus.

  "The gap between the lowest and the highest [target] is actually the narrowest that it's been in nearly a decade. So they're bullish and they're clustered."
  — Alexandra Semenova [03:13]

• Contrarian Concerns:
  Such consensus is often seen as a warning: when everyone’s bullish, small negative surprises can sink the market faster than expected.

  "When everyone is on the same side of the boat, there is too much optimism baked into consensus, and it'll take very little to disappoint the market."
  — Alexandra Semenova [03:13]

• Risks Not Priced In:
  Persistent risks—unexpected Fed moves, AI monetization challenges, geopolitical developments—could trigger volatility that is not reflected in current forecasts.

• Role of Forecasts:
  Despite their limited accuracy, year-end targets help communicate sentiment. Retail investors, in particular, pay close attention, though institutional players focus on sector calls and tactical trades.

  "The correlation between what the market does and what strategist targets are is actually zero."
  — Alexandra Semenova [06:57]

• Alternatives and Diversification:
  Given lofty equities, many recommend diversified exposure, including real assets and commodities—“a theme going into 2026.” [07:50]

• Who Got 2025 Right?
  Chris Harvey (Wells Fargo/ex-Oppenheimer) and Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley) are cited for accurate, consistent calls—valued for their conviction amid widespread flip-flopping.

  "I would look up to someone more, even if he's so far out from the consensus, but if he's stuck to his guns..."
  — Co-host [09:11]

2. Thematic Investing for 2026: Disruptive Tech & Real Assets

Guest: David Schassler (Vaneck) | [12:46–19:30]

• Long-Term Themes Identified:

  • Disruptive Tech (especially AI & automation): Considered “underhyped” and a powerful engine for future market transformation.
  • Stealth Bull Market in Real Assets: Energy (especially nuclear, proven fossil fuels), and infrastructure outperforming tech in many cases.
  • Financial Accountability: A new era where debt and deficits carry real consequences; assets with embedded scarcity (gold, bitcoin) become more attractive.

• Asset Allocation Outlook:
  Schassler boldly predicts bitcoin as the top-performing asset in 2026, followed by gold and broader real assets, with tech lagging slightly behind.

  "Bitcoin is the instrument that responds best... If you've got bitcoin, which has outperformed in almost every year of its existence and now underperformed by 30% relative to tech stocks last year... it's basically a coiled spring."
  — David Schassler [15:59–17:40]

• Gold vs. Bitcoin:
  Gold is viewed as a more reliable hedge in downturns; both assets are prized for scarcity, but their volatility and investor appeal differ.

  "If the market sells off, I expect gold to be there for me. I expect bitcoin to be a risk asset. The similarity... is that they both have scarcity and that's why they're both beneficiaries of financial excess."
  — David Schassler [17:40]

  Schassler maintains a $5,000+ price target for gold (“well above” for 2026), predicting volatility as a “feature, not a flaw.” [18:55]

• Geographic Opportunities:
  Schassler does not expect European equities to outperform U.S. in 2026, favoring gold and bitcoin for currency hedging. [19:16]

3. Life Sciences Real Estate: Vacancies, AI, and New Hotspots

Guest: Travis McCready (JLL) | [20:07–27:27]

• Lab Vacancy Surge:
  Over 60 million square feet of U.S. lab space remains vacant after prior overbuilding, creating a “bottom of the cycle” situation but also an opportunity for tenants to secure better deals.

  "We have, as the saying goes, a lot of wood to chop in order to return to equilibrium from a lab standpoint in the United States."
  — Travis McCready [21:04]

• AI Drives Efficiency:
  Artificial intelligence is making R&D more efficient, reducing demand for traditional wet lab space and increasing need for dry/lab/office setups.

• Reshoring and Biomanufacturing:
  Over $25 billion in new biomanufacturing commitments are as much about favorable policy as meeting growing pharma demand.

  "It's a combination of factors, both policy shifts and more drugs being on the market, that's driving that investment."
  — Travis McCready [22:17]

• Market Leaders & Rising Centers:
  Boston (including Cambridge), San Francisco Bay Area, and San Diego remain dominant U.S. clusters. Emerging markets include Indianapolis, North Carolina, and Philadelphia, driven by pharma manufacturing and innovative healthcare institutions. [23:28]

• Benefit for Occupiers:
  Erosion in top-line rents and longer deal times favor biotech tenants—"now is the time" to occupy space at favorable terms. [26:51]

4. Airlines: Record Demand Amid Labor & Infrastructure Strains

Guest: Sid Philipp (Bloomberg Aviation) | [30:59–38:18]

• Holiday Travel Surge:
  U.S. airlines are moving nearly 3 million people daily through early January despite average domestic ticket prices reaching $900.

• Air Traffic Controller Shortage:
  Ongoing nationwide shortage, exacerbated by delayed recruitment and retirements; government efforts are underway, but full solutions will take years.

  "It takes a long time, it takes them years to actually be able to be fully independent and actually be managing traffic."
  — Sid Philipp [33:41]

  The problem is global but acute in the U.S. due to outdated systems and rapid retirements.

• Industry Restructuring:
  Consolidation among low-cost carriers remains a theme (Spirit and Frontier in merger talks), reflecting pressure on discount operators as premium airlines attract wealthier customers.

  "The low-cost carriers at the bottom end of the market have... seen their customers really affected... and that's where they've sort of seen a hit to their books."
  — Sid Philipp [37:24]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Market Optimism and Risks

• "Sentiment is usually a contrarian indicator. And in this case, when everyone thinks that nothing can go wrong, it'll take very little to surprise to the downside."
  — Alexandra Semenova [04:29]

On Thematic Investing

• "We're in a world of financial accountability. So if we're going to pay for all the sins of the past... you're going to pay for it with debasement. Why? Because you have no option."
  — David Schassler [14:13–15:43]

On Biotech Real Estate

• "Now is the time. It's a great time to be an occupier."
  — Travis McCready [26:51]

On Air Traffic Control

• "Of the recruits that get into the academy, very few actually make it out into the field because it's just a very demanding job."
  — Sid Philipp [34:45]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• S&P 500 Market Optimism & Wall Street Forecasts: 02:39–09:43
• Thematic Investing for 2026 (Tech, Real Assets, Scarcity): 12:46–19:30
• Life Sciences Real Estate Trends and AI Impact: 20:07–27:27
• Airline Industry Update (Travel Surge, Labor, Outlook): 30:59–38:18

Tone Snapshot

The discussion is conversational but data-driven, blending cautious skepticism with bold predictions and keeping a focus on actionable takeaways for investors, business leaders, and consumers.

For Listeners:

Whether you’re an investor tracking Wall Street’s euphoria, curious about where the next big real estate bargains are, evaluating the future of biotech, or just planning a holiday flight, this episode’s insights will keep you ahead of 2026’s evolving business landscape.