Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: S&P 500 Closes Near Record as Tech Keeps Rallying

Date: February 9, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Businessweek dissects the S&P 500's near-record close amid a persistent tech rally. The hosts and guests analyze major market trends, the ongoing rotation out of big tech, fiscal and monetary policies' implications, the global appetite for U.S. Treasuries, and structural shifts in the pharmaceutical and consumer beauty sectors. Insights from Citi's Stuart Kaiser, health reporter Madison Miller, and Joyce Wong of American Century Investments underpin a dynamic discussion on how tech, healthcare, and the macroeconomy are shaping investor strategies and business outlooks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Treasuries and Global Investment Sentiment

Guest: Stuart Kaiser – Head of Equity Trading Strategy, Citi

• Chinese Banks Reducing US Treasury Holdings:

  • Chinese regulators encouraged banks to diversify and reduce US Treasury exposure—but not state holdings.
  • "The directive... framed around diversifying market risk rather than anything to do with geopolitical maneuvering..." (02:18)

• No Real Alternative for Reserves:

  • Despite market concerns, the US remains a default reserve destination due to scale and liquidity.
  • Bond market worries over fiscal risks aren't unique to the US (UK, Germany, Japan have seen similar episodes).

    "I don't know if there's any real alternative for a lot of these, you know, countries to invest their reserves because of the size and the liquidity."
    — Stuart Kaiser (03:29)

• Equity vs. Bond Market Signals:

  • Equity strategists stay vigilant but see no immediate signs of risk from bond auctions or bond market volatility.

    "If an equity guy knows when the bond auction is, you're in trouble."
    — Stuart Kaiser (04:22)

2. Tech Rotation & Equity Market Dynamics

• Growth to Value Rotation:

  • The rotation from tech/growth into value/cyclicals began in November and intensified lately.
  • Tech giants' dominance (Mag 7 + Broadcom) means shifts here move the whole S&P.

    "You pretty quickly get close to about 50% of S&P market cap... when you're selling those stocks, you have to find a home for them."
    — Stuart Kaiser (05:00)

• Market Fundamentals Remain Strong:

  • Strong GDP, positive earnings, and expected tax refunds provide underpinnings, even if markets are "indigesting" the end of a long tech run.

• Small Cap and Equal-weight Index Outperformance:

  • Small caps outperformed large caps; equal-weight S&P is seeing stronger gains, suggesting money flowing outside of big tech (06:12).
  • Despite attempts to diversify, big tech consistently draws money back thanks to outperformance.

3. Shifting Dynamics Within Tech (CapEx and AI Spending)

• Investor Attitudes Toward Tech CapEx:

  • Previously, AI spending was always rewarded; the latest earnings show nuance—Meta punished for "AI overspend," others (e.g., Microsoft, Amazon) also penalized for higher CapEx (06:54–07:20).

    "Within the tech trade, the shift is moved kind of away from the spenders and to the beneficiaries of that spending."
    — Stuart Kaiser (07:20)

• Alphabet’s Record Bond Offering:

  • $20 billion bond issue to fund spending–signals confidence in future returns and robust balance sheets among the Mag 7.

  • Smaller techs with weaker credit don’t get the same investor leeway.

    "If you can demonstrate acceptable return on the investment, the markets are okay with this. If it looks like it's going to be ROE destructive, then right now you're getting punished..."
    — Stuart Kaiser (08:22)

4. GLP-1 Drug Legal Battles and Pharma's Next Moves

Guest: Madison Miller – Bloomberg News Health Reporter

• Novo Nordisk v. Hims Lawsuit & Patent Issues:

  • Ongoing gray areas post-FDA shortage regarding compounding. Novo now escalating to patent-infringement suits against compounded semaglutide knock-offs.

    "Novo is saying that Hims is violating that patent in the United States. So that's a big deal, that's a big escalation."
    — Madison Miller (14:07)

• Novo’s Pressure vs. Lilly’s Stronger Outlook:

  • Novo struggles with earlier patent expirations and supply issues; Lilly moved faster post-shortage and enjoys a longer patent runway.

    "Novo has had more difficulties with these compounders because it did not get a handle on this supply shortage as soon as Lilly did."
    — Madison Miller (15:17)

• Lilly’s M&A and Diversification:

  • Lilly acquires Orna Therapeutics, showing it’s not betting everything on GLP-1 drugs. Pharma never "rests on laurels."

    "Drug companies... should always be looking toward the next big thing because patents expire."
    — Madison Miller (17:03)

• Future of GLP-1s: Patents, Generics, and Pricing:

  • Novo’s flagship (Ozempic/WeGovy) patent in US expires soon; global generics are inevitable.
  • Around a third of patients are already in the cash-pay market; prices have come down faster than usual.

• Public Messaging & Obesity Drugs:

  • Discussion of Super Bowl ads about healthy eating. Both pharma and public health messages emphasize that obesity isn't solely about personal behavior—there’s a genetic and medical component.

    "Obesity is a disease... for some people, eating healthy doesn't fix."
    — Madison Miller (20:30)

5. Federal Reserve Leadership & Fixed Income Outlook

Guest: Joyce Wong – Senior Client Portfolio Manager, American Century Investments

• Kevin Warsh Potentially Heading the Fed:

  • Unlikely to fundamentally change market expectations; pragmatic and experienced.
  • Anticipates less dovishness than markets hope for, result: higher-for-longer yields.

    "He does have a pretty long public history of his views... with maybe a little bit more of a dovish bias..."
    — Joyce Wong (23:03)

• Fed-Treasury Coordination Concerns:

  • Market is watching for signals on whether Warsh will champion Fed balance sheet reduction, or closer cooperation with the Treasury.

• US Economy Surprising to the Upside:

  • Stronger-than-expected growth, supported by tax refunds and stimulus, suggests inflation may remain closer to 3% than 2%.

• Tech Companies & Bond Issuance:

  • Alphabet’s $20B bond tap is typical of high-quality names locking in current rates; Apple did the same in the low-rate COVID era.

    "I think that speaks to the fact that companies also see yields possibly moving up right."
    — Joyce Wong (27:25)

• Fixed Income Investment Trends:

  • Investors opportunistically active with "shopping lists" for blips in spread; preference for higher-quality corporates over high-yield, especially in SaaS/tech.

6. Consumer Economy Snapshot: Sally Beauty Holding’s Resilience

Guest: Denise Polonis – President & CEO, Sally Beauty Holdings

• Resilient Consumer Demand:

  • Despite economic challenges, consumers continue to spend—hair color sales up 8% in retail, driven by DIY trends and campaigns like "Save Some Money, Skip the Salon."

    "For all the trials and tribulations, they are still spending and in our world they're buying a lot of hair color."
    — Denise Polonis (33:27)

• Proprietary Brands & Product Mix:

  • 38% of retail business now in-house brands (e.g., Ion, Bond Bar), offset by both branded and own-label lines.
  • Customers trade down on basics (shampoo/conditioner), but remain loyal to key products like hair color.

    "When you're that lower middle income consumer... you might not trade out hair color... but you might trade out a little bit more the basics..."
    — Denise Polonis (35:11)

• Growth Areas:

  • Retail business, ecommerce (+20% in the quarter), new fragrance category, and color consultation programs all fueling expansion.
  • International expansion focused on Mexico, Chile, and specific EU markets; not seeking aggressive global expansion.

• Investor Concerns:

  • 80% of Sally's share float is shorted—investors watching for sustained top-line growth.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the shifting tech narrative:

  "This CAPEX spending is undergoing an audit or some other form of... invasive examination."
  — Stuart Kaiser (07:20)

• Pharma's reality check:

  "Drug companies should always be looking toward the next big thing because patents expire."
  — Madison Miller (17:03)

• Fed chair prospects and bond yields:

  "With [Kevin Warsh] being confirmed as Fed chair, he is likely to cause yield curve steepening. So we are cautious about being very long in the yield curve."
  — Joyce Wong (23:38)

• Consumers’ priorities in down cycles:

  "You might not trade out hair color, it’s really important to you, but you might trade out a little bit more the basics where you can fill in with other things.”
  — Denise Polonis (35:11)

Timeline of Major Segments

• 02:18 – 04:37: US Treasuries, global risk rotation, and bond market signals with Stuart Kaiser.
• 04:37 – 09:16: Tech rotation, CAPEX scrutiny, Alphabet’s record bond deal (Kaiser).
• 12:23 – 22:25: Legal battle over compounded GLP-1 drugs, pharma patent cliffs, and industry diversification (Miller).
• 22:39 – 29:58: Fed chair prospects, yield curve and bond market analysis, Alphabet’s debt sale, fixed income strategy (Wong).
• 32:35 – 40:47: US consumer resilience, Sally Beauty earnings, product trends, and international growth (Polonis).

Summary Table: Key Market Themes

| Segment | Key Takeaway | Notable Quote/Insight | |-----------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------| | Treasuries & Macro | No great alternative to US assets; risks not unique | "I don't know if there's any real alternative..." | | Tech Equities | Growth-to-value rotation, tech capex now scrutinized | "The shift is moved... to the beneficiaries of spending"| | Pharma & Patents | Legal crackdown, race to generics, M&A diversification | "Drug companies…should always be looking…next big thing"| | Fixed Income | Fed leadership in focus, yields seen higher-for-longer| "Yield curve steepening…cautious…very long" | | Consumer Trends | DIY beauty growth, resilient spending, product mix | "They are still spending…buying a lot of hair color." |

This episode provides a comprehensive view for investors and business leaders tracking equities, monetary policy, innovation, and shifting consumer behavior. The tone is practical, informed, and grounded in real-time market observations from expert guests and the Bloomberg team.