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At Marsh, we believe that perspective powers progress. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company, a new Marsh built to solve the world's most complex challenges and uncover new opportunities for our clients. We're better positioned than ever to help your business navigate obstacles and unlock potential across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments, and management consulting. Learn more@visitmarsh.com podcast you need to make.
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Is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg.
- [01:59]
E
Radio with more on the currency trade and declines in the US Dollar. Bloomberg News affects and rates reporter Carter Johnson is here in the Bloomberg businessweek studio. The declines that we continue to see in the US Dollars, the flows behind it. What's the story that's telling you?
- [02:14]
F
Sure, absolutely. Thanks Tim. Thanks Carol. And I think what's really interesting is we can look at this on a pretty long timeline. So I'm starting to hear comparisons late last week, today, yesterday to this feels like early 2025 and Liberation Day all over again. And that's just because yes, we're seeing some action in stocks and treasury in Treasuries, but really this is a real sort of dollar focused impulse to sell. And of course on a shorter timeline as well. We can think about that in the context of what we saw last week, which was some pretty concerted movement in dollar yen specifically and that was, as we reported, likely because some folks here in the US the acting at the behest of the treasury, right. Were reported to us to be interchecking rates and sort of calling into some banks and seeing where exchange rates were trading. So on a couple of different levels, sort of in the near term and in the big picture, as you mentioned, Carol, questions about the U.S. fiscal position, policy uncertainty, those are all combining right now.
- [03:17]
A
Carter reading in this morning. You know, Bloomberg reporting out the positioning is heavily one sided. They said since Thursday, roughly two thirds of options trades in the euro and the Australian dollar have been bets on further GRE back weakness. So is this largely about dollar decline and not about bets on other currencies, strength backed by fundamentals?
- [03:36]
F
It's a great question. I think the answer honestly is both. And a lot of that impulse as we just talked about, is because of a declining dollar and questions about U.S. policy. But we are seeing relatively solid growth expectations in the rest of the world, whether that's Europe, maybe that's in Asia. And that really underpins the impulse to sell dollars as well. If the rest of the world, if growth in the rest of the world was cratering at the moment, we wouldn't be seeing this sort of action. We're seeing in terms of dollar sales. So it's absolutely the other side of the coin as well.
- [04:10]
E
We've got stock investors watching and listening to this program. What is the relationship between weakness in the dollar and what happens in the equity market? I mean, you made the comparison minutes ago to kind of feels like April 2025. And we all remember what happened to the equity markets during that time.
- [04:26]
F
Absolutely. And I think that's the big question is will we see that again? Where typically you'd expect to see the dollar weaker as stocks strengthen, they have a negative correlation, particularly the dollar as a traditionally haven asset. We didn't see that late last year. The stocks, the dollar treasuries, they were all falling together. So I think that's the big question right now is will we see that again? I don't think we are yet, but in sort of a different picture as well. A weaker dollar should theoretically support domestic manufacturers. It should support exporters here in the US that's typically what we'd see on a lag. But we also know that that's something the Trump administration has been vocal about as well. A weaker dollar theoretically, again doesn't work instantaneously, but theoretically supports domestic manufacturing and exporters who are looking to sell to the rest of the world.
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A
Hey, one, one Other thing I want to ask you though, but is it about global investors and we've talked about flows into European equities. Is it another sign perhaps that global investors are less interested in dollar denominated investments?
- [05:29]
F
It is possible, although I think it's too early for us to say at this point as we knew last year, we don't have that data yet necessarily. And again, if we look at just the relative performance of US Stocks, they're they're doing all right. They're certainly holding up. I think what it could definitely be indicative of, and this is something we've covered a bit here at Bloomberg in the past, is hedging behavior. And what that means is you're a global investor here in the invested here in the US you might still want your exposure to US Stocks in US Tech, but you're going to hedge that dollar component of that much more than maybe you used to mention.
- [06:05]
E
Jay Powell, tomorrow, the press conference. What are you watching for from, from your purchase? Somebody who watches.
- [06:11]
F
Absolutely. I think just as we are in the rates in the Treasury's world as well, any sort of forward guidance that we can get from, from Chair Powell, that'll be a tall order given the spotlight he's under at the moment, but any sort of future guidance about the outlook for rates this year that will be particularly impactful for the dollar as well as rates.
- [06:31]
A
Right. If for any indications that there is higher rates coming, we're talking about that could put some a floor under the dollar.
- [06:36]
G
Correct.
- [06:37]
F
That could definitely help.
- [06:38]
E
Yeah.
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F
And you know, it's funny.
- [06:39]
C
Yeah.
- [06:40]
E
No, for sure.
- [06:41]
F
J.P. morgan, when they came out with their big currency forecast late last year, they're bearish on the dollar, but the big risk to their bearish dollar view is the Fed has to turn around and hike again. We might not see that, but that's, that's the risk.
- [06:54]
A
Although there is, it feels like a growing conversation about inflationary concerns which would certainly lead the Fed possibly, certainly to keep rates as is or possibly hike them. We'll have to see. Carter, thank you so much. Laying out the currency trade for us as we continue the US Dollar. He's Bloomberg News ethics and rates reporter Carter Johnson.
- [07:13]
E
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.
- [07:21]
A
Business challenges and opportunities are never one dimensional. At Marsh, we believe that to thrive you need perspective. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company, a new marshall where each layer of our organization works even more closely together to provide you with a stronger, more panoramic perspective. We're now one firm solving the world's most complex challenges and unlocking opportunities for you across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments and management consulting. As business continues to evolve, Marsh will always be here to help you overcome new challenges, answer new questions and take advantage of new opportunities. We're better positioned than ever to provide the perspective you need to fuel progress forward. See how@visitmarsh.com podcast support for the show.
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Comes from public on public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.
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Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc, SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
- [09:20]
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Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere. You you turn every field and every function, but without identity you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI. You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [10:09]
A
The group of airline stocks as a whole off about 2% today. Here to talk about that, we're also going to talk about Boeing, which also reported today is Sheila Kayalu. She is Managing Director in Equity Research at Jeffrey. She joins us here in studio. Nice to have you here. Happy New Year.
- [10:23]
B
Thank you for having me.
- [10:23]
A
I know January is over, but almost let's just start with airlines. And then we want to move into defense because you cover that really closely as well. It does feel like they're all finding their way back after the storm. We're trying to see if there's another storm in terms of the impact. Is it still a case of. They're still trying to assess. How do you, as someone who covers some of these names, kind of factor that in?
- [10:43]
B
Yeah, in terms of airlines, we're looking for revenue growth. We've seen the same trend across American that we saw at United and Delta. Corporate was up 12%. Corporate momentum continues. I'm taking a very long flight this weekend. And then main cabin weakness, but it's getting a little bit better. And it's all about cost control. That's why I think United went up the most on earnings as they. They really beat out on costs when American Airlines margins came in 100bps below our estimate. So I think the most polarizing stock is going to be Southwest. I'm really excited for their report on Thursday because they have some lofty targets. The stock's at $40 today. Some people think it's going to 30, some people think it's going to 80. It's all about they're adding extra legroom seats. And is it. Is the strategy going to work?
- [11:27]
E
But that's a huge shift for South. I mean, they're essentially moving away from their DNA, what they're known for and the culture that they're known for. And that's alienated some people already.
- [11:38]
B
Yeah, it depends. So the average Southwest fare is about $109. So if you add an option for extra legroom or refundable or seating. If you add $50 to that cost of that airfare. So 1 59, that's a 50% increase, almost. Does the passenger back away? I'm not sure. But then again, it's only $159. So how do we adoption do we assume we're at about 5% adoption in 26? They have a bunch of other benefits as well, baggage fees and cost optimization. So that's driving their EPS to $3, essentially EBIT tripling off of a very low 25 base. So we'll see how much of that they get. You know, some people think they could get to $4 or even $5 as more of that extra legroom adoption comes in. But it's their first go at it, and we'll see how it takes off.
- [12:29]
A
You have a $45 price target, so you're not at the 80 and you're not at the 30. So maybe a little bit higher from where we are.
- [12:35]
B
You know, I would prefer United where they, you know, if you think about United, they're going to be accounting for 44% of the of the new premium seats through 2028. So they're going to be accounting for more than any other airline in the U.S. americans after that in Southwest because of their extra legroom. I prefer to bet on that corporate customer paying thousand plus $100 to achieve that additional corporate fare. And that higher margin where United is adding its seats than Southwest adding on the, you know, I think both are given the multiples that they're currently trading at. United is more appealing to me.
- [13:14]
E
Let's talk some defense and then we'll talk some Boeing, too. I want to look at shares of RTX. They're higher right now by about 3.4% profit, topped Wall street estimates. A sign of momentum that the company awaits a potentially huge jump in US Military spending. That's kind of where I want to start that what we've heard from President Trump in the last few weeks, not just with the idea of a $1.5 trillion defense package, but also calling on some of these companies to do a better job, pay their executives less, and also build stuff for the US government more quickly. What are these CEOs to do?
- [13:47]
B
There's a lot going on in defense, and that's why I was saying it's an exciting sector to cover because this is the first time that the five Primes might no longer exist as five Primes by the end of the Trump administration, which is our our view. We think that there's going to be similar to what LHX announced 10 days ago. There's going to be more deconsolidation happening among among the Primes. Their budget is going up by 500 billion from a trillion dollars. We don't know the time period of that spending. We don't know how much will be added to actual equipment and R&D versus military operations. But they're seeing an increase, whether it's to fund defense. Tech names like Firefly, voyager, the recent IPOs we've seen in the space, or the traditional Primes or suppliers like Aero Environment. Kratos are up 100% on the year already and we're 27 days in. So it's really interesting to see what happens in defense. But there's a lot of shakeups that are, I think, are going to play out. So it's about seeing who has the best Position, position, portfolio, and who to play from here.
- [14:45]
A
I was surprised. Like, I know when you walked in, we started talking and I mean, aerospace, defense, just the S and P broad index, up about 9% year to date, up about 46% last year. Is it just because defense spending all around the globe is just happening and, and everybody's amping it up?
- [15:01]
B
It's. Yeah, it's as simple as tremendous growth internationally, 20% plus NATO budgets, Japan, Korea. We're seeing countries like Serbia put in orders that never used to put in billion dollar orders for equipment to companies like Elba in Israel. Coupled with the defense budget going from a trillion to 1.5 trillion, makes defense very interesting. And the administration has been very supportive of defense tech. Emerging technology companies, companies that had stagnant revenues for the last decade, are seeing 30, 40% growth.
- [15:30]
A
But you know, as Tim mentioned, you know, when the President talks about an industry, it can be good or bad. So is it good that they're on his radar, but when he's not.
- [15:40]
E
$5 million.
- [15:41]
A
Talking about.
- [15:42]
B
He did back off of the. He didn't quantify in the executive order, the pay and I.
- [15:47]
E
But he mentioned it.
- [15:48]
B
He mentioned it, yes.
- [15:49]
A
It's a headline that caught our attention.
- [15:51]
E
And $5 million, it sounds like a lot of money, but not for a CEO who's paid over $20 million.
- [15:56]
B
The executive. Executive pay, the average executive pay, I would assume in any sector is over 20 million. So. So the caliber of folks you would get into the defense would be the opposite of what the administration's trying to achieve.
- [16:07]
A
So what do you hear from defense companies about getting some attention like that from the President? Do they, do they kind of brush it off a little bit like we're talking with them?
- [16:15]
B
Like, I think one interesting trend we've seen from the reports, whether it was Northrop or Raytheon today, is the lack of buybacks, because that's what the administration asked for, a focus on additional capex. Raytheon mentioned that, Northrop mentioned that, Boeing mentioned that. So across the board, everyone's like, sure, we're investing. We're going to get you supplies on time. That's our job. And it helps funnel the growth.
- [16:37]
A
The Northrop CEO saying Northrop is balancing the need for performance with affordability and speed to market to meet the U.S. defense Department's focus on speedy development.
- [16:45]
B
Yes. And I think Kathy Warden, the CEO of Northrop, said this was the best spending environment she's ever seen in her career. So most of these executives are very bullish.
- [16:53]
E
Do the upstarts in defense tech pose a threat to the incumbents. And I'm thinking of, you know, an Anduril that is not yet. And I say not yet because obviously this company, I'm guessing will IPO at some point soon. Do they, do they compete with these incumbents?
- [17:08]
B
Yes, clearly they're competing and they're collaborating, they're working together both internationally and domestically. The Primes are trying to work with, you know, Northrop has a partnership with Kratos on cci. It's a autonomous vehicle essentially. So we're seeing a lot more collaboration but they're also trying to take share. But the budget is growing overall and that's the bottom line. Although we're not really seeing it in 26. Northrop's guidance is 5% growth. They talk about an acceleration from there in 27, 28. Same thing with Raytheon. It was modest growth in defense. It didn't really pop. Yes, it grew in the second half versus the first half and we'll see how those trends continue.
- [17:46]
A
I feel like with all of the geopolitical tensions and the wars that we've seen around the world that everybody comes back to the US military might and the defense companies here in the United States. What is the global picture? Where's the competition? Is, is there not much global competition, Sheila, when it comes to the US defense companies?
- [18:03]
B
So I think it's focused on maybe a few things. First is missiles and munitions readiness. We need to have that available and that's why we're seeing companies like Lockheed increase PAC3 production from 600 missiles a year.
- [18:16]
A
What's PAC3 production?
- [18:17]
B
It's a missile package is the name of the missile going from 600 units a year to 2,000. That is significant to say at least that's 8 billion of additional revenues to Lockheed over seven years if they could ramp to those levels. The backlog is 20 years for a missile like that. We're seeing that across the board. LHX 10 days ago or 2 weeks ago now announced that they are seeing a government investment within their, their solid rocket motor business that powers missiles. They're going to open up 60 factories next year. LHX currently has 250 factories. So that's a magnitude of investment we're seeing from the government. So focus on missiles and munitions. And second, I think it goes back to old school warfare. Everybody thinks helicopters are over and F35 is a bad program. But if we think about Venezuela, if we think about Iran, what's the kind of equipment we're using? So you know, it's not necessarily rebuilding an entire fleet for the Navy, but it's doing things that we could use pretty quickly.
- [19:19]
E
Just in the last 90 seconds, I want to hit Boeing with you. Shares are down today by about 1.8%. The company did report this morning a second straight quarter of generating cash, 57% bump in sales during the final three months of the year. Shares down though, is it because of accounting charges for the KC46 tanker program? Is that it?
- [19:35]
B
No, everybody just assumes that's going to happen every quarter.
- [19:38]
A
So we're, we're, we're all good years down after.
- [19:41]
B
So the shares open down. The call at 10:30, got it up to it reversed about four points and then they're down again. We're a believer in Boeing. They're underwriting their free cash flow was a loss of 2 billion in 25. They're talking about positive 2 billion at the midpoint in 26, normalized for one time items. They're saying their free cash flow is high single digits. So say 8 billion. They're reaffirming their 10 billion target and then they're saying they could go above that. So, you know, 10, 15, it's giving long only as a reason not to dismiss the stock. If this company could actually earn 10 billion of free cash flow, then it's quite compelling at its current valuation. So we're seeing a lot of fluctuations. Are they talking back 27, 28? No, I think that you're going to see 2 billion in 26 and an improvement in 27 and 28.
- [20:31]
A
So Boeing, let me just say you've got a 290 price target. It's at 244. You feel good about that? Do you want to raise it?
- [20:36]
B
We are supportive of Boeing. We think there's a few positive catalysts. I think President Trump might be headed to China in April. We'll see if Boeing heads there. We haven't seen a China order since. I can't even recall. Maybe it was 2019, maybe earlier. So I think Boeing works from here. You know, depressed prices for Max's maybe 50% below what they historically sell at today.
- [20:59]
A
This was fun. Come back soon. All right, Sheila Kayalu, she's managing director in equity research at Jefferies, joining us here in studio.
- [21:09]
D
This is the Bloomberg Business Businessweek Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
- [21:27]
A
We do head back to the White House. And Bloomberg News senior reporter Jen Delawi. Jen, good to have you here with us. We know President Trump on his way. I don't think he's landed yet, but we know there is a crowd in Iowa waiting for him. He did say en route to Iowa, talking to reporters. He's meeting in terms of Tom Homan, the border czar. He said he's meeting with the governor in Minnesota. He's meeting with the mayor, I think, later. And I hear that's all going very well. What are we hearing? Is it all going so well?
- [22:01]
G
You know, early reports out, you know, we don't have a great deal of intelligence out of those early meetings. But what we can, what we are seeing, of course, is this effort by the president, it appears to dial down the temperature, to do really two things, to express support for Homeland Security Secretary Noem and at the same time, who's obviously been criticized for her handling of these incidents and her characterization of them. And then at the same time also try to find a way forward with local leaders. You know, the president repeated that comment to us several times before he headed out to Iowa, you know, saying that he believes the conversations with the governor of Minnesota are going very nicely. And of course, he was previewing that later conversation today with Mayor Jacob Frey.
- [22:50]
E
You know, I was surprised to hear, just based on the reporting that we've seen in the last 24 hours that Tom Homan was headed to Minneapolis. Some of the reporting from other outlets indicated that Kristi Noem had been sidelined in some way. She was at a meeting at the White House yesterday, reportedly went a couple of hours, according to other outlets. How are you reading into that reporting? Has she been sidelined? The president earlier expressing his support for her, saying she will not. She, she will stay on at the agency. How are you reading into that?
- [23:24]
G
You know, it's important to appreciate that departures aren't always telegraphed well in advance. But for now, the president is very clearly, you know, insisting that she has his support. That meeting, first reported by the New York Times last night and stretching over two hours, included her top aide, Corey Lewandowski, you know, the first campaign manager from Trump's 2016 presidential bid. And also, and it's notable that they came out of that meeting with the president's messaging today about not backing down from her. And in fact, when asked about Noem's performance, he immediately pivoted to talk about, you know, how she's done a great job on the border, traditional deportation, focused comments from the president there. Notably today, on the way to Iowa, on the plane on Air Force One, Trump is joined by his senior advisor, Stephen Miller, who had also drawn a lot of criticism, just like Noem, for his initial characterizations of the shooting over the weekend. Stephen Miller had intimated on social media that the man shot on Saturday was an assassin and domestic terrorist, even though video evidence suggests he had been disarmed and hadn't brandished a weapon.
- [24:36]
A
Hey, you know, Jen, in terms of I was going to ask you about who's the architect of all of this, And I think there's been a lot of reporting, but does it really matter? Because the buck really stops with the president, to be fair, you know, the.
- [24:51]
G
President, this president in particular, takes ownership of his policies and has been quite happy to tout his deportation agenda. You know, it's something he campaigned on so vigorous and in office, has really claimed as a source of pride that he's accomplishing his goal of deporting illegal immigrants. What is.
- [25:14]
A
And not the only president to do it.
- [25:15]
G
Right.
- [25:15]
A
We can go back to the Obama administration, to be fair, because I think it's important to kind of point that out.
- [25:23]
G
But, you know, Stephen Miller is seen internally as, of course, a big, big factor in this push. Obviously someone who's been critical of the, you know, amount of immigration and illegal immigration into the US but to your point, you know, Trump has taken ownership of this. This is as much his issue as it is that of a key ally and aide. And it's one where he's, We've heard him talk very openly about being frustrated with the messaging on this last week. He lamented that, you know, the focus hadn't been on the, you know, the rapists and murderers, as he characterized them, that were being deported. He even took to the White House briefing room last week to show pictures of some of the deportees. So that kind of speaks to his frustration that the messag has shifted away from where he wants it to be. And of course, you know, that he's lost some control over the narrative here. Polls show that even among folks who care, who support his broader immigration crackdown, there's support is waning for the overall effort in the wake of these two deaths.
- [26:24]
E
So then where do deportations go from here? If Minneapolis, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Fry and the Governor Tim Walsh of Minnesota are successful in de escalating this, does that provide some sort of roadmap to other governors to then go ahead and say, hey, your federal agents are not welcome here. You are going to have to find a different way to accomplish what you want to when it comes to deportations.
- [26:52]
G
You know, it'll be interesting to see how this gets resolved. I think that will be key to the extent to which it is a roadmap for other country, other states. You know, clearly the governor and mayor have been very forceful in their eagerness to see these folks leave their area. At the same time, you know, Waltz has in the last day indicated he wants to turn down the temperature. We're going to want to watch what happens with Tom Homan. The borders are that Trump dispatched to Minnesota. You know, he has focused much more on traditional deportation efforts rather than kind of this broader dragnet or, you know, these broader operations that Kristi Noman has favored. And so, you know, if we see that kind of refocusing back on more conventional deportation efforts, that could be a de escalation and a roadmap for other states and cities concerned about immigration enforcement in their backyards.
- [27:47]
A
All right, super. Appreciate it, Jen. Thank you so much. Bloomberg News senior reporter Jen Delawi joining us there.
- [27:54]
E
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.
- [28:01]
C
Support for the show comes from public on public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.
- [28:51]
D
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc.
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C
Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
- [29:07]
D
Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of Jeffrey jeopardizing it. Fortunately, OKTA helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, secure any agent. Okta secures AI Being a small business.
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The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [30:54]
A
Karen Bear Perry is with us, head of US iShares fixed income strategy over BlackRock and she joins us from San Francisco. Karen, how are you?
- [31:02]
H
I'm doing great. Carol Tim, how are you guys doing?
- [31:05]
A
Doing okay. 2026. Definitely off and running. It's Fed Eve, right? We'll get that decision tomorrow. Tell us a little bit about when it comes to fixed income. I always like to start with you guys. You're massive in terms of asset manager and the asset management business. Where are you seeing flows in and out when it comes to the fixed income world? Already.
- [31:26]
H
This year has already been off to a pretty strong start. So I think last year investors who took on any sort of duration risk were rewarded. We saw the AG up 7% last year and this year I'd say some of those trends are continuing. We're seeing people being more selective about where they get their income, so positive flows into flexible income funds like bac. We're also seeing people still wanting to invest internationally. So with the dollar being off this year we're continuing to see more interest inflows coming back to international fixed income. So think emerging market bonds with EMB or even European high yield. People are looking at and Then of course, I think one of the biggest trends you can't ignore is just the rise of actively managed bond ETFs. ETFs, they were actually responsible for about 40% of the flows last year and we saw over 137 launches. So people can now access a lot of their favorite bond managers through the etf.
- [32:18]
E
You just want to read some headlines that are I mentioned President Trump is set to make a speech in Clive, Iowa. He's right now taking questions at a small business in Urbandell, Iowa. The president Carol saying that China and Japan always wanted to devalue currency. He said the dollar is doing great. If you're watching us on YouTube or Bloomberg Originals, you can see the president live right there answering some questions from reporters.
- [32:40]
A
Yeah, and I don't know exactly what he means by the dollar doing great.
- [32:43]
E
Maybe he was asked about weakness.
- [32:45]
A
Yeah, I guess so. I mean we're down, I'm looking at the dollar index down another 9, 10 of a percentage point. But we've seen certainly a pullback when it comes to the US Currency. You take a look at the major industry developed in the developed world, if you will, and really the dollar at the bottom of the pack. So we definitely have seen some pressure. How does that Karen, if the fixed income world, I think for a lot.
- [33:10]
H
Of US Investors, most bonds are denominated dollars. So it doesn't impact us very directly. But we've seen a big trend where people are looking at going global, grabbing those international bonds. One of our ETFs, Igov, which is just international bonds and those foreign currencies. I think the euro yen is actually off to a really strong start this year up almost 2%. So we've seen more people saying, you know what, maybe I want to take advantage of some of the dollar dropping. And one of the easiest way to do that is with with international based fixed income ETFs. And so I think that's going to continue. More interest this year.
- [33:44]
E
How do you look at this idea of Europe moving away from U.S. treasuries? Our Bloomberg Economics team with a note that says no, Europe is not about to sell $3.5 trillion in treasuries. A sell America strategy, our team writes, is not in Europe's interest. The financial repercussions would be severe year given the region's heavy reliance on US Dollar funding. Do you agree with that?
- [34:10]
H
I think we see a few countries who made some noise last week about potentially selling off dollar assets. I think it's going to continue to be a major source of liquidity, a major source of stability for a lot of countries. We've seen more volatility I'd say in the long end because of it is investors anticipating that. So I'd say one of the easiest strategies is just, just move away from super long duration bonds, long duration Treasuries in particular. So we've seen a lot of people reallocating back to that belly of the curve three to seven years and avoiding some of the long end which I think is going to get hit most if there's negative international sentiment.
- [34:43]
A
Karen, any signs that you are seeing global investors think that the US is increasingly uninvestable?
- [34:51]
H
We haven't seen that trend yet. I think if anything our interest rates are still higher than other countries and, and we've even seen interest from international investor into, into maybe munis as a way to get access to high quality bonds that aren't Treasuries. Investment grade credit is also of a lot of interest to investors. So you know you're moving away from if the government is going to get more levered. Companies actually have very strong balance sheets and have lower levels of leverage. So we've seen if anything people are looking towards US Corporate bonds is one of the ways to add diversification.
- [35:22]
E
What, what are the trends that you're already seeing in the first few weeks of this year? You mentioned what we saw last year, but where are you seeing flows just in the last three weeks?
- [35:31]
H
Yeah, we've seen IG credit, so we have seen over 900 million come into us IG which is just the whole corporate credit curve. A lot of interest picking up on long duration municipal bonds. Those are actually on a tax equivalent basis yielding over six and a half percent. So you can get some of the same yields you find in high yield but in unis. So people are looking at adding duration there and we've just seen more people adding to very short, ultra short exposures, putting that cash to work, trying to squeeze a little bit more out of the front end. And finally bond ladders are really popular. For example our I bonds ETFs, we've seen over $1 billion come into those this year. Our most popular One is our 2029 IBDU yielding over 4% with only a three year duration. So we're seeing people just stepping out of the front end go into more that intermediate exposure.
- [36:20]
A
Is there anything that you are kind of watching out from that Fed decision tomorrow, Karen? Obviously it's the decision and what you hear from the Fed in the statement, but it really is the press conference too with Jay Powell to give a lot more context and color around all of that. He's very careful. It's often we've seen the last few meetings he tends to say very similar things. But I'm just curious in the last 30 seconds that we've got with you, you what you will be watching out for and you think is important to fixed income investors.
- [36:47]
H
So of course we're watching the main decision. We think the Fed will continue to be on hold. I think they're going to be data dependent. We've seen Fed speak this week filtering through that. They're still waiting for the previous cuts to come through the economy. I think I'm really going to be watching the number of dissenters. Are we going to get a nine, three or some kind of even more divided decision?
- [37:07]
A
Yeah, always interesting, right as they, as they play it out and they, they vote basically and see where they it kind of lands because we certainly have seen a lot more dissension as of late. Karen, thank you so much Karen. Very, very Perry. She's head of US iShares fixed income strategy over at BlackRock.
- [37:23]
D
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