Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge
Date: March 11, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

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Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Businessweek, hosted by Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec, tackles the persistent issue of inflation in the US, its interaction with recent geopolitical events (specifically the US-Iran war), the strain on military and supply chains, and the energy/commodity response. Through expert interviews with Yelena Shaliatova (Conference Board), Jerry Doyle (Bloomberg News Global Defense Editor), Gary Evans (US Antimony Corporation), and Ellen Wald (Transversal Consulting), the episode explores how economic indicators, military realities, and resource dependencies are rapidly shifting in today’s complex environment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Inflation and the Fed’s Dilemma

Guest: Yelena Shaliatova, Senior US Economist, Conference Board
[02:51 – 06:43]

• Recent CPI Print: The most recent inflation numbers provided "some relief from price pressures" due to lower used car and insurance prices, but this relief may be short-lived due to geopolitical turmoil.
• Tariff Effects: The pass-through effect from tariffs continues to drive up core goods prices, especially in "furniture and apparel" (03:02).
  • Quote:
    "It was there at an accelerating pace for certain things like furniture and apparel..."
    – Yelena Shaliatova [03:02]
• Fed's Policy Outlook: Despite these shifts, the Fed is likely to remain on hold. Upcoming PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) numbers, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, are expected to show upward pressure from recent supply shocks and oil/gasoline price surges.
• Disconnect Between CPI and PCE: This is particularly visible in shelter costs, distorted by government activity.
• Stagflation Concerns: There is a “sense” of stagflation—persistent inflation amid sluggish growth—but a full-fledged stagflationary spiral hinges on inflation expectations, which so far have not "surged."
  • Quote:
    "Stagflation is definitely in the air... a little bit of a sense of that is definitely there."
    – Yelena Shaliatova [05:44]

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2. The War in Iran: Unpacking the New Military and Supply Chain Reality

Guest: Jerry Doyle, Bloomberg Global Defense Editor
[10:29 – 16:52]

• International Perception: The war’s objectives and US motivations “dismay and confuse” European observers. The “second and third order effects” (economic, strategic) were not adequately considered.
  • Quote:
    “There’s been a lot of dismay and sort of confusion about the war aims of the US... what is the end goal, the desired end goal?”
    – Jerry Doyle [10:49]
• Human and Logistical Toll: American forces have suffered casualties and trauma; the military’s operational performance is strong but under previously unseen strain due to Iran’s unconventional capabilities: drones, ballistic missiles, and naval mines.
• Asymmetric Threats: Iran’s shift to drone and missile warfare after losing conventional forces poses a new challenge to US military logistics and supply lines.
• Endurance vs. Objectives: Iran’s strategy is simply survival; the US's shifting (and less clear) war aims make victory difficult to define or achieve.
  • Quote:
    “The Iranian regime... their only goal of this war is survival. That's it. To endure whatever punishment... and just be standing at the end.”
    – Jerry Doyle [15:13]

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3. Critical Minerals & US Industrial Policy Amid Wartime Pressure

Guest: Gary Evans, Chairman & CEO, United States Antimony Corporation
[19:50 – 30:43]

• US Security & Supply Chains: The company’s antimony and tungsten operations are directly tied to new Department of War and Energy grants.
  • Antimony is crucial for munitions; tungsten for military hardware.
  • Recent Grants: $27 million from Dept. of War and additional funding requests pending.
  • Quote:
    “Their orders continue to increase... To fulfill the Department of War’s orders for 2026 is $85 million of orders.”
    – Gary Evans [27:32]
• Production Pressure: Demand for antimony has risen dramatically—Department of War went from $0 in orders a year ago to $85 million now.
• China as Competitor: The collapse of China’s largest antimony mine (Twinkle Star) and China’s aggressive buying is reshaping global competition. The need for price floors and government support is highlighted.
  • Quote:
    “We’re dealing with a gorilla [China] that can drive the price down and lose money… we need price floors to protect the industry.”
    – Gary Evans [29:13]
• Strategic Independence: Recent efforts in North America (including a plant in Canada and expansions in Alaska) are designed to end dependence on adversarial supply—as “a wake up call” for US industry.

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4. Energy, Oil Markets, and Wartime Policy Shifts

Guest: Dr. Ellen Wald, President, Transversal Consulting
[34:55 – 41:36]

• Emergency Oil Response: President Trump is preparing to invoke Cold War-era powers to restart offshore oil drilling in California.
  • The move could quickly add supply, but “not...save California residents from… massive spike[s]” in prices.
  • California's unique blend rules mean that extra oil is helpful but not a cure-all.
  • Quote:
    “California has some really strict regulations...basically they use only summer blend gasoline...so everything has to be produced in-state.”
    – Ellen Wald [36:08]
• Global Supply Chain Chaos: The war’s immediate impact is not just on oil, but across fertilizers, metals and petchems, causing shipping disruptions and cancelled insurances.
  • Quote:
    “This is not just a disruption. Oil, it’s gas, it’s fertilizers, it’s metals, it’s petrochemicals. The list goes on and on.”
    – Jeff Curry, cited by Tim Stannweck [33:23]
• Catastrophe Threshold: While key supply chain infrastructure remains intact, the situation is precarious. A major attack (e.g., missile hits on Sheba oilfield) could trigger “catastrophic consequences.”
  • Quote:
    “No oil tanker in its right mind is going to try to transit the Strait of Hormuz while there’s a cargo ship burning there.”
    – Ellen Wald [39:11]
• Price Outlook: Triple-digit oil prices arrived faster than expected. Future pricing and volatility hinge on the duration/severity of the conflict and policy moves, with markets swinging on every official signal.
  • Quote:
    “We could see triple digit oil again or we could not."
    – Ellen Wald [41:36]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It kind of speaks to…underlying US inflation slowing in the month of February...but that was before the war with Iran.” — Tim Stenovec [02:17]
• “Tariffs…keep coming through into consumer prices.” — Yelena Shaliatova [03:20]
• “Stagflation is definitely in the air.” — Yelena Shaliatova [05:44]
• “What did we miscalculate?...Not considering what would happen if the war lasted more than a couple of days, if the Strait of Hormuz did get shut down.” — Jerry Doyle [13:44]
• “Their [DoD] orders continue to increase...To fulfill the Department of War’s orders for 2026 is $85 million of orders.” — Gary Evans [27:32]
• “California relies heavily on foreign crude…30% of the state's foreign oil supplies require passage through the Strait of Hormuz.” — Tim Stenovec [35:41]
• “No oil tanker in its right mind is going to try to transit the Strait of Hormuz while there’s a cargo ship burning there." — Ellen Wald [39:11]
• "We could see triple digit oil again or we could not." — Ellen Wald [41:36]

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Key Timestamps and Segments

• Inflation and the Fed (CPI/PCE, stagflation): [02:51 – 06:43]
• US-Iran War: Military & Strategic Impact: [10:29 – 16:52]
• Critical Minerals (Antimony/Tungsten) & US Security: [19:50 – 30:43]
• Energy Markets & Emergency Drilling Response: [34:55 – 41:36]

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a penetrating look into the chronic persistence of inflation, the far-reaching shockwaves of a new Middle Eastern war, and the urgent policy shifts—from industrial minerals to emergency oil drilling—now reshaping the US economy and global markets. The discussions are candid, expert-led, and highly relevant for business leaders, policymakers, and investors trying to understand a world where the “old rules” are breaking down, and new responses are demanded at unprecedented speed.

Transcript

[Carol Massar]

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[Tim Stannweck]

Lower prices for used cars, motor vehicle insurance that helped keep inflation in check despite higher costs for gasoline and groceries, including fresh vegetables and coffee. That was though before the war, which

[Carol Massar]

is something we talked about our planning call. It's like, who cares?

[Tim Stannweck]

Yeah, who cares?

[Carol Massar]

But I keep thinking though, if we had higher inflation before the war, that shows that inflation is still persistent here in the US So let's see what Elon Mushlet has to say. She's senior U.S. economist at the Conference board. She's here in studio Good to have you here, old Bloomberg colleague. So fun to have you back here even as a guest.

[Yelena Shaliatova]

I'm so excited to be here.

[Carol Massar]

So good to have you. So is it, I don't know, old data? Do we dismiss it? But does it remind us that inflation continues to persist here in the US

[Yelena Shaliatova]

One thing I was looking at right away is the pass through of tariffs into core goods inflation. And it was there. And it was there at an accelerating pace for certain things like furniture and apparel and other things that where tariffs actually have an impact.

[Tim Stannweck]

Why, why now though?

[Yelena Shaliatova]

It keeps coming through into consumer prices.

[Tim Stannweck]

So I thought that was a one time hit.

[Yelena Shaliatova]

Well, you know, apparently not.

[Tim Stannweck]

A lot of economists said that. A lot of economists said so.

[Yelena Shaliatova]

Yeah, and we continue to see that impact and probably we will continue to see that on top of everything else that is going on with oil prices, gasoline and diesel.

[Carol Massar]

All right, so I don't know, do we start to look ahead to maybe the Friday tomorrow print when it comes to PC, which is certainly the Fed's preferred right inflation gauge? It is Friday the 13th. No, that's not.

[Tim Stannweck]

Wait, this Friday is Friday.

[Carol Massar]

It is tomorrow's Thursday.

[Tim Stannweck]

Thursday. You wish. You wish. Carol.

[Carol Massar]

It's been a bit of a week, but it is Friday the 13th. So is that like a bad omen in terms of what we might see?

[Yelena Shaliatova]

So there's a huge disconnect between.

[Public Advertiser]

I know.

[Yelena Shaliatova]

Hey, anything could happen.

[Carol Massar]

Pull out your crystal ball there Stan.

[Tim Stannweck]

Back.

[Yelena Shaliatova]

Okay, so PC and CPI prices have seen a huge disconnect and part of that is shelter prices which has been affect affected by the government shutdown and how artificially they are lower than they have to be at this point. But yeah, PC prices are going to accelerate on the back of this supply shock, the oil prices shock and we will continue to see that. So this is the data that the Fed is looking at for which reason they will probably stay on hold but,

[Tim Stannweck]

but as we talked about a lot in 2022 the Fed can only do so much when it comes to the price of oil. And that's. And by do so much I mean

[Carol Massar]

nothing they can actually produce it or

[Yelena Shaliatova]

so the way we look at it is which way this shock will affect more. Is it going to affect prices more than production than GDP output? So for now if the crisis is a little bit short lived, it will affect prices to a larger extent. So inflation will rise by 3, 10 of a percent we estimate on the back of the this crisis. GDP growth will probably be lower by a tenth according to our estimate. But a lot depends on the duration and we continue to say that it really depends on how long lasts.

[Carol Massar]

Do you worry at all about stagflation? We got the jobs print and I know unemployment people remind me still fairly low but. And I know we still have growth in the US Economy. But is it crazy, you know, to bring up stagflation? I know we have tax cuts and

[Yelena Shaliatova]

we saw that stimulus stagflation is definitely in the air. Yeah, ye. I mean, like it's far from, you know, a full blown stagflation for sure that we experienced earlier in the 20th century. It has to be shown in inflation expectations. Unless inflation expectations surge, we're not going to see a full blown stagflation. But a little bit of a sense of that is definitely there.

[Tim Stannweck]

As Carol alluded to earlier, the president has said the war is very close to being over. Pretty much Iran is pretty much obliterated. Not exactly his words, but that was what he was the risk.

[Yelena Shaliatova]

The risks are still there. Why are you going to to go there and pass the Strait of Hormuz if you know that things are not really like great yet? I don't know. Insurance will probably still be high and that shock that we already had will pass through into consumer prices goes on longer.

[Carol Massar]

It's a problem, right?

[Yelena Shaliatova]

Definitely.

[Carol Massar]

All right, Yelena, thank you so much.

[Yelena Shaliatova]

My pleasure.

[Carol Massar]

Come back soon.

[Yelena Shaliatova]

So good to be here.

[Carol Massar]

Great to have you here. Yelena Shaliatova, she's senior U.S. economist at the conference.

[Tim Stannweck]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

[Carol Massar]

They told us to expect change. They warned us about the transition, but honestly, they forgot the best part. This is the chapter where we finally focus on us. LifeMD delivers expert menopause and midlife care

[Ellen Wald]

right from your home.

[Carol Massar]

From hormone health to holistic wellness, LifeMD helps you feel your best for the best years of your life. LifeMD it's just getting good. Visit lifemd.com goodlife the thing about AI

[IBM Advertiser]

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[Carol Massar]

IBM, Adobe, Acrobat Studio, your team's home base. Collaborate within a shared PDF space.

[Gary Evans]

You've got your docs, your plans, your

[Carol Massar]

specs, and then invite the crew to build. What's next. They talk up the teamwork. They think that this design could be a contender. When somebody wonders what's the next steps? AI helps you finish the rest. Bolts are tight. Now your plan's refined. Run a smoother business when you're all aligned. Do that with Acrobat. Learn [e-mail] do that with Acrobat. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. So we wanted to jump us bring up something out from ABC News. They are reporting that the FBI just

[Tim Stannweck]

about an hour ago.

[Carol Massar]

It is just about an hour ago. Right. And I feel like, you know, there's multiple outlets picking it up. But it did come from ABC and they are out reporting, Tim, that the FBI warned police departments in California in recent days that Iran could retaliate for American attacks by launching drones at the West Coast. Again, this is according to an alert that was reviewed specifically by ABC News.

[Tim Stannweck]

Yeah, look, if that were to take place, it would take this war to a new level. It speaks also to the questions that we've had since the US War in Iran began more than a week and a half ago. Where we are, what's the mission when it will end? President Trump addressing the US War in Iran shortly after noon today, Wall street time from the White House as he was headed on a trip to Kentucky and to Ohio.

[Gary Evans]

Right now they are, they've lost their navy, they've lost their air force. They have no anti aircraft apparatus at all. They have no radar. Their leaders are gone and we could do a lot worse to one another. We're leaving certain things that if we take them out or we could take them out by this afternoon, in fact, within an hour, they literally would never be able to build that country back.

[Carol Massar]

All right. That, of course, is President Trump earlier today at the White House en route to a rally in Kentucky. Meantime, according to today's Bloomberg big take as the conflict the US War in Iran extends toward a third week, the US War effort is showing unexpected signs of strained against an adversary whose military budget is smaller than the GDP of Vermont. There's a little perspective for you, but which also has an arsenal team of missiles and drones unlike anything that the United States has ever faced with.

[Tim Stannweck]

More, we've got a Bloomberg Global defense editor Jerry Doyle joining us from London. Before we get started, what what is the view from from London on the US War in Iran right now? I mean, and I'm not, I don't want to have you speak for everybody who's there, but just how is it being portrayed and what are you seeing?

[Jerry Doyle]

I think that from the outset, really there's been a lot of Dismay and sort of confusion about the war aims of the US Sort of what the end goal, the desired end goal is, sort of why the US Is engaged in this and sort of this sense that maybe the second and third order effects of a large scale attack on Iran were not considered enough, certainly relative to the way they affected the rest of the world, including Europe.

[Tim Stannweck]

Yeah, well, I, look, I think it's fair to say a lot of the same questions being asked here, not just by reporters in, to the, to the President, but, but also by observers near and far. So let's get to today's big take because it's a story that we've been watching and talking about since the war began less than two weeks ago, that is the US Military stockpiles. It's the questions about the strains that we're seeing with the US War effort. What are those from weaponry to ships, to our military members?

[Jerry Doyle]

Well, I mean, first and most important, war puts a tremendous strain on the people who are involved in it. We've already seen, I think, seven US Service members killed, reports that dozens or maybe more have been injured in strikes. I mean, look, even if you are not directly hit by a missile or a drone, being near an extremely large explosion, it causes all kinds of trauma to your inner ear, to your brain and other things. So there's a human cost to this. And obviously on the Iranian side as well, many, many more people killed civilians. Even in terms of the strain on the actual war apparatus of the US what we're seeing and sort of the interesting aspect of this is not that US Planes and weapons and ships aren't able to do very precisely the job that they're designed to. And in fact, they have been performing nearly flawlessly in the tactical sense in terms of hitting what they want to hit and operating in a way that doesn't put any crews in danger. But the fact of Iran's arsenal, with its navy gone, its air force gone, its air defenses sort of shredded, what you're left with is a whole bunch of ballistic missiles and probably even larger number of drones. And that gives Iran the capability to continue striking not just at US Forces, but at oil infrastructure and other things around the region that it doesn't need, all these other easily destroyed aspects of its military. And so that confronts the US With a problem that it really never had to deal with before.

[Carol Massar]

What did we miscalculate as a nation, as a military, as security, as defense? Like, I just wonder how did we kind of not maybe, you know, or underestimate the capabilities in Iran.

[Jerry Doyle]

I mean, I can't climb inside the head of anybody who planned these attacks or who authorized them or anything like that. I mean, just from an outside perspective, it seems that perhaps we may have misjudged Iran's sort of capability to strike back or will to either continue fighting despite all the, all the things that have been thrown at it. Again, you know, I think one of the big miscalculations might have been just forgetting about or not considering what would happen if the war lasted more than a couple of days, if the Strait of Hormuz did get shut down, what the impact on the global economy would be. And I think those things are really what we're coming to terms with right now.

[Tim Stannweck]

What about the actual way that Iran has been fighting this war? And back to this idea that it could send drones to the west coast of the United States States. And does the United States have a good idea of what Iran's capabilities are and continue to be even after 12 days of fighting?

[Jerry Doyle]

Well, first of all, to the drone attack on the West Coast. I have no idea how Iran would, would do that. You know, the longest range drone they have would, you know, crash somewhere in the Middle east long before it ever got to the.

[Tim Stannweck]

They did say it could be from some sort of ship. This is just the ABC News report that we're citing.

[Jerry Doyle]

No, I understand. I don't see an Iranian ship sneaking up on the west coast either. I mean there's huge military bases all up and down the West Coast. There's a US plane flying military plane from Hawaii to California all the time. There's virtually no way a ship large enough to carry a massive drone strike force is going to sneak up on California. To the second point though, I mean, Iran's sort of remaining card and the thing that really makes it most dangerous is even if you took away the missiles and drones, they still have a large number of extremely cheap and easy to place naval mines. They have a large number of anti ship missiles which have been sort of appearing in the Gulf from day to day. I think three or four ships were reported hit today, commercial shipping. And more than that, even the way this war is being fought through Iran, the Iranian regime, like their only goal of this war is survival. That's it. To endure whatever punishment the US and Israel meet out and just be standing at the end. Whereas the US sort of has these shifting war aims. It's going to eliminate the nuclear program, they're going to disable Iran's military regime, change all these things. And the, the fact that yeah, we don't know exactly what it's going to be. Makes it harder for the US to emerge victorious.

[Carol Massar]

Well, it's an incredible big take. So much detail costs of war, weapons costs. It's unbelievable. Jerry, thank you so much. Jerry Doyle joining us from London, Bloomberg News Global Defense Editor.

[Tim Stannweck]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily Coming up after this this

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[Carol Massar]

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[Gary Evans]

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[Carol Massar]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. Well, this morning our next guest was downtown in the heart of the US Financial district. He was ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. He was there to market to mark, excuse me, the company's listing on the exchange. And this is a company that has really been at the center of, I think it's safe to say one of the Trump administration's main initiatives when it comes to national security. And that is the build out of crucial minerals and materials.

[Tim Stannweck]

Yeah. We got with us Gary Evans. He's chairman and CEO of United States Antimony Corporation. It's a $1.4 billion market cap miner, producer and seller of antimony products. It's based in Montana. The stock up more than 100% so far this year. Carol, 183% increase just last year.

[Carol Massar]

And we do know that about 22% of the float is short. So investors keep an eye on this one. Gary, so good to have you back with us in studio.

[Gary Evans]

Thank you for having me back so quickly.

[Carol Massar]

I know we talked to you last month about a deal that you were doing and you know, and we talked about kind of the build out here in the US and then I was

[Tim Stannweck]

just thinking a lot has changed since then.

[Carol Massar]

It was Paul Hewitt, right?

[Gary Evans]

Yeah. We were the America skills and the

[Carol Massar]

two of you guys working together. Where are you guys in terms of the build out and certainly the deals with the government. And I also think about here we now have the draft, the backdrop of the US War in Iran and probably pressure, something we're going to talk about later in terms of the military stockpiles

[Gary Evans]

here in the US So with respect to the America's gold and silver joint venture, we fortunately already have the land. We already have the permits, which puts us several years ahead. We're doing engineering and construction plans now. We'll start probably in the next 60 days. So we hope to have that plant up and running by the this time or summer next year.

[Tim Stannweck]

This time or summer next year.

[Gary Evans]

Yeah. So March to June.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Tim Stannweck]

Okay. Okay. So. So it's a little while to get online.

[Gary Evans]

Yeah. Well, it just takes a year to build the, we're talking about a $75 million project. It's not a, not a little rinky dink addition.

[Carol Massar]

I wonder about the conversations you continue to have with the US Government and especially again, going back to this backdrop Are you guys constantly talking? Are they talking about where are you? You know, what does this mean in terms of US national security? Because I do feel like we are increasingly having conversations. And even this week and over the last week and a half, when it comes to what we're seeing in the energy markets that even nations around the world are now thinking about. Okay, what do we need to be to be energy efficient? So pick your critical commodity or resource that nations around the world are thinking about this.

[Gary Evans]

Well, so two things have happened since I was here a month ago. Last week we won a $27 million grant. Yep. From the Department of War. We've been working on that for about six months. The purpose of that money is to reimburse us 20 million-plus or minus for our facility in Thompson Falls, which we've been expanding since May. It goes live in two to three weeks. The other 7 million is for our operations up in Alaska. We have got antimony exploration going on there. So that was what that money is for. And then the week before, we announced a new resource report on another critical mineral that's very vital to the government called tungsten.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Gary Evans]

And tungsten is the second hardest mineral behind diamonds. And it's used for submarines and tanks for shields. And we bought a property in Canada Sudbury area last May and did enough work to be able to get what's called a third party resource report that you can file with the SEC. And it shows 4 point billion with a B of future revenues from that property. So we are on a fast track to get that up in operation. We hope to have it done this year.

[Tim Stannweck]

Should, should investors expect more grants to come down the pipe?

[Gary Evans]

I sure hope so because we have a $45 million grant request in the Department of Energy. Today we're doing a $75 million grant to the Department of War. In 10 days, we're doing another $15 million grant to the department Title 3 for our tungsten play. Yeah.

[Tim Stannweck]

As CEO of the company, you have to plan for what revenue or money you will actually get when you plan these projects. What is your expectation that you will get those grants?

[Gary Evans]

Actually, we run our company as if we're not going to get anything you do. So you can't guarantee.

[Tim Stannweck]

The base case is we're not getting any money.

[Gary Evans]

We're not getting any money. I think what the government wants us to do is move faster sounds, which is what the money really does because I have to go raise capital. I have to do lots of things to fund it myself.

[Public Advertiser]

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[Gary Evans]

The government jumpstarts me I can move five times faster than I would with my own money.

[Tim Stannweck]

So Carol asked about discussions with the Pentagon. Yeah, what about? Just discussions with, with other parts of the US Government.

[Carol Massar]

You guys are talking energy.

[Tim Stannweck]

Yeah. Like do you have some, do you have a lobbyist in Washington? Do you have somebody full time for the company? Washington? How do those discussions work?

[Gary Evans]

I hired a guy full time in D.C. about two and a half months ago. He helped me get this final 27 million done. He's the one that filed the DOE grant for 45 million. He is constantly looking. You know, there's buckets of money in the government in all kinds of places that we don't know. And so we're trying to find out what they are. They don't necessarily communicate with one another. So it's a process and then there's a system. I actually hired a former Department of War doctor who's helping us write the White paper. She knows what they're looking for. So we're using all the tools we have available. As you know, General Jack King's on our board. He's given us some guidance. So I was spent last Thursday all day with Donald Trump Jr. In Dallas. We're doing everything we can to try to grease the skids. So they know that we really are trying to help the country.

[Carol Massar]

Gary, safe to say, and it's only been like a month since we talked last, that the pressure, I think you've already kind of mentioned this, that there is more pressure from the government to kind of get all this stuff up and running.

[Gary Evans]

All you can do is listen to the news. You know, when they, when you, when the news is saying we're running out of artillery, that's not something you really want to announce to the world.

[Carol Massar]

Well, can you give us some clarity around that? Because I think we're trying to understand is there pressure on US military in terms of the build back. And I'm just wondering now that we're in our second week of this conflict with Iran, is it causing stress on antimony or other critical mineral shipments? What are you seeing and what can you tell us around that?

[Gary Evans]

Well, we know there's a stockpile. Our job is really to build that stockpile further. But it's not just the United States, it's NATO countries, it's Australia. So we're trying to figure out ways that we can put like the hydromet facility with America's gold and silver. That's a different technology that we can take subpar antimony and make mission grade materials.

[Tim Stannweck]

What's a Munition, Just for example purposes. Right. Now, what's a munition? That includes antimony that's used in this war.

[Gary Evans]

So what we'd make is a metal. It's a 50 pound ingot. A serial stamp put on a pallet, shrink wrapped and shipped to the Department of War. They give that to Northland, Boeing, gm, whoever's making products that needs antimony.

[Tim Stannweck]

So how long from when you send that shipment, that 50 pound shipment, does it end up in ammunition that can be used in a war?

[Gary Evans]

Within days?

[Tim Stannweck]

That's how quickly they can produce it?

[Gary Evans]

Well, no, they take that ingot, they'll distribute it to their subcontractors of the military.

[Tim Stannweck]

But what I'm trying to do.

[Gary Evans]

And all they do is melt it down.

[Tim Stannweck]

But I'm trying to understand how long it takes the subcontractors, tractors, to build those weapons.

[Gary Evans]

I got no idea.

[Carol Massar]

We gotta call Northrop.

[Tim Stannweck]

I mean, we've asked Wayne, too. There's not a lot of clarity there.

[Gary Evans]

And remember World War II, we shut down all the auto factories and started making tanks and planes and trains and automobiles.

[Tim Stannweck]

We are not there right now.

[Gary Evans]

No, we're not there.

[Carol Massar]

Listen.

[Gary Evans]

And our goal is to try to be sure the government has these critical minerals in its. In its fuselage. That's what they need.

[Carol Massar]

I just have to say, I have a grandmother who was a Rosie the Riveter. So, like, she was, she was at a GM plant. But the stress on antimony supplies. Now, are we seeing a drawdown here?

[Gary Evans]

You know, they don't tell me, but I can tell you their orders continue to increase.

[Carol Massar]

Okay.

[Gary Evans]

So as of right now, to fulfill the Department of war's orders for 2026 is $85 million of orders.

[Tim Stannweck]

So, okay, what does that compare to a year ago?

[Gary Evans]

Zero.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. So it's pretty aggressive. Hey, you know, we were thinking about when you were coming in and our planning meeting about President Trump's upcoming meeting with President Xi. The export controls remain kind of an issue between these two countries when it comes to these critical minerals and materials. Have you seen any indication that China is about to kind of, look, loosen their export restrictions? You're shaking your head of rare earth elements and permanent magnets.

[Gary Evans]

In particular, there's a difference between the rare earths and critical minerals. When Trump met in.

[Carol Massar]

And I know we always do this when.

[Gary Evans]

Yeah, people get them confused and it's understandable. Trump came out of that with a one year reprieve on rare earths. He actually said critical minerals. The Prime Minister or the Ministry of China? The Next day said, no, no, no critical mineral. So when, when tungsten and antimony were stopped, that was September of 24. That's before Trump was in office. That was during the Biden administration. Why did that happen? The largest antimony mine in the world, called Twinkle Star in China, depleted 125-year-old mine. The largest in the world, done. So China has been, you know, every day that I'm in the market trying to buy antimony, my only competitor is the People's Republic, Republic of China. And they're out there throwing money, roads, bridges, whatever they have to do to get that country to sell them antimony. And so I am their competitor in the market.

[Carol Massar]

What do you want President Trump to do?

[Gary Evans]

We need floors. I mean, we're dealing with. We're dealing with a gorilla that can drive the price down and lose money.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Gary Evans]

And we're talking about the country of China. So we need price floors to protect the industry geographically.

[Tim Stannweck]

How is it distributed around the world?

[Gary Evans]

As far as antimony, it's typically found with gold. We're currently receiving antimony from the country of Chad, Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Australia, Mexico. Now, so every time you look at those antimony deposits in those countries, different grade, it may have arsenic, it may have, may have sulfur, it may have lead. We have to deal with that in our smelter. So we prefer clean antimony.

[Carol Massar]

Do you see anything? You know, we go from administration to administration and you know, China is a nation that's got these long term plans. Right. And they.

[Gary Evans]

As you plan.

[Carol Massar]

Right, Exactly. Very different. Just got about 30 seconds. Do you believe that what we are seeing now in these domestic builds of critical precious metals, rare earths, like all this stuff, that it will continue no matter.

[Gary Evans]

It's a wake up call. We've been sitting behind the logs for 20 years watching this happen, and all of a sudden it happened. And so it's a huge wake up call. And this industry has the capability of meeting these needs. We need time and we need money, but it can be done.

[Carol Massar]

All right. You are such a gem for always finding time for us and coming back and, you know, you educate us along the way, so we so appreciate it.

[Gary Evans]

You're welcome.

[Carol Massar]

Congratulations on the listing as well.

[Gary Evans]

Thank you so much.

[Carol Massar]

Gary Evans, he's chairman and CEO of United States Antimony Corporation right here in studio.

[Tim Stannweck]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Carol Massar]

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[Carol Massar]

You're listening to the Bloomberg BusinessWeek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tim Stannweck]

So oil climbing in another volatile session as President Trump's escalating rhetoric about the war in Iran outweighed an emergency release of crude reserves by wealthy nations earlier today, Jeff Curry, chief strategy officer at Carlisle Energy Pathways, was on Bloomberg surveillance. He said the Damage to supply chains from the war will take months to unwind. This is not just a disruption. Oil, it's gas, it's fertilizers, it's metals, it's petrochemicals. The list goes on and on. And then you've disrupted supply chains in countries all over the world. The ships are in the wrong places, the insurances are being canceled. The damage, damage is going to take months to unwind. But I want to bring it to the immediate. There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude.

[Carol Massar]

None.

[Tim Stannweck]

That was Carlyle's Jeff Curry earlier today. Back with us, Dr. Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, the author of Saudi Inc. She joins us from Boca Raton, Florida. Ellen, I want to start with this headline we just got from Jen Delaware and Nathan Risser that the president is preparing to invoke Cold war era powers to pave the way for renewed oil production off the Southern California coast. Sable offshore up 23 and at 24% as we speak. I know this is, this news is just getting to you as quickly as it's getting to us, but when you think about US offshore, especially off the coast of Santa Barbara, California, what would that do if and how quickly could that get up and running and actually hit U.S. supplies?

[Ellen Wald]

So I think that largely depends on where Sable is in its efforts. It does seem that they were producing from these platforms last May not full capacity, but there was production going. So presumably, you know, the pipelines and the infrastructure hasn't suffered a tremendous amount of decay. And so, you know, should the, they receive the go ahead, should they not be being essentially shut down by these regulators, they should be able to get production going fairly quickly. I mean, that doesn't mean like, you know, you press a button and it's instantaneous. But I would say, you know, within a couple of weeks, you know, once they've made sure everything is safe and ready to go and the pipelines are ready and everything, you know, it should be ready to go, I would say.

[Tim Stannweck]

Our Bloomberg piece notes that California relies heavily on foreign crude. It made up about 61% of the oil used by its refineries last year. Roughly 30% of the state's foreign oil supplies require passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Would this be in terms of, look, again, this is just coming to us the same time it's coming to you. Would this be a drop in the bucket in terms of supply or would this actually be meaningful when it comes to California's energy needs?

[Ellen Wald]

So I think it would absolutely be meaningful for California for a number of reasons. The fact is that, you know, this production should have been going for a year now. And I think that a lot of the regulations and these things that California was doing to try to stop it is much more from a political perspective. And so, you know, whatever it takes to kind of cut through that red tape, it would absolutely help California. California, though, has some really strict regulations concerning refining and the type of gasoline that they're allowed to produce there. And basically they use basically only summer blend gasoline. And that means that they can't import gasoline from other states. So everything California uses basically has to be produced in state. And so even if there is more oil coming into California, they've still got to get it refined and produced. So I think it absolutely would help. I'm not sure that it would alleviate really high gasoline and high diesel prices as much as one might hope it would.

[Tim Stannweck]

Yes, Carol and I always know when we go to California together, drive by a gas station, for example, today, triple a national Average, national average 358. California's national average, 533. Oh, sorry, sorry. California friends.

[Carol Massar]

So what's your read, Ellen, on this, of why the President would be doing this? If we think this is a short war, shorter versus longer, would we do this? Or is he doing this because he thinks this is going to go on longer?

[Ellen Wald]

I think he's doing it because it's a really good reason to get this particular production going. And overall, in general, it will help America's domestic oil supplies. It will help with energy concerns overall. So there's definitely the reasoning is sound behind it, but it does seem like it's more of a way, oh, hey, here's a great way we can cut through this red tape for this. This company. This is not like a do or die matter here. Oh, so these are not going to like save California residents from, you know, massive, massive spike.

[Carol Massar]

So, Ellen, is this president likes deals, right? Likes to make transactions. Is this taking advantage of a situation? Can I go that far and say that?

[Ellen Wald]

You know, I don't want to come out and say that, but I would definitely say that he is using the situation to his advantage. It will certainly help. It's not necessarily going to, you know, save the world now. That may free up more oil to go other places and it would definitely solve a problem. But there are a lot. Many countries are facing much more significant problems from the oil not getting out of the Persian Gulf than the state of California is.

[Carol Massar]

Well, let's go on that because Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser said yesterday, first public comments since the war choked off Middle east flows. I just want to read what he said. We were reporting it out here at Bloomberg. There would be catastrophic consequences for the world's oil market. The longer the disruption goes on and the more drastic to the consequences for the global economy. When is that do or die moment?

[Ellen Wald]

I think we're kind of on the precipice of it. One of the things that we haven't really seen so far is destruction of oil infrastructure. Significant destruction of oil infrastructure in the Middle east that would take out production for long periods of time, even after the conflict ends. So, for example, there were reports that a missile was shot down that was headed for Sheba oil fields. If that missile had hit its target and had destroyed infrastructure there, then, then we'd really be in a horrible situation as it is. So I think we're lucky we haven't seen that. We're really mostly in this kind of holding pattern of are things actually going to get moving? The president keeps signaling certain things with his language. Oh, things are going to get going soon. We're going to see more oil production. You know, it's safe for tankers. And then on the other hand, we're getting these reports of, you know, a cargo ship, you know, set on fire trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. No oil tanker in its right mind is going to try to transit the Strait of Hormuz while there's a cargo ship burning there.

[Tim Stannweck]

Ellen, when you were on our program on Friday, we asked you what would happen if this war went on. And you said if we got to the end of this week, we could see a full blown crisis. And we asked what that crisis would look like. You said triple digit oil prices that came less than 48 hours, hours after you said that that could happen.

[Carol Massar]

Well done.

[Tim Stannweck]

Was that in your view?

[Carol Massar]

Well, what was that?

[Tim Stannweck]

Was that the peak this cycle? Like, can you make a prediction like that?

[Ellen Wald]

So that's a really good question. Was at the peak. I think that there's a lot of hesitation. I think that at that point the oil markets were showing just how high they could go. I also think that there are a lot of people that are kind of hinging on what is coming out of the President, what's coming from the administration. And so that's why we're seeing these wild swings based on, you know, a del tweet from the energy secretary. And they're not really providing a whole lot of concrete information. It's one thing to say, you know, we're working with oil companies, we're doing everything in our power that we can to make it easier for them to increase domestic US Production and exports. And then it's, you know, that saying that is very different from saying, you know, we will see oil companies increasing production soon because of higher prices. They don't know that, that, you know, the first shows evidence that they're working. And I think the market is really reacting to this. And so we could see triple digit oil again or we could not.

[Carol Massar]

You're on our speed dial. I just want you to know that. Ellen wald, you rock. Dr. Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting, Senior fellow at the Atlanta Council, author of Saudi Ink this is the Bloomberg businessweek daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Grainger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Grainger offers millions of products in fast, dependable delivery so you can keep your facility stocked, safe and running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.