The Capital Needed to Build More Housing

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Businessweek

Episode: The Capital Needed to Build More Housing
Date: March 18, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Guest: Ron Eliasaf (Founder & Managing Director, Northwind Group)

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Overview

This episode explores the dynamics shaping the U.S. housing market, particularly the challenges and capital requirements involved in building more housing—both affordable and market-rate. Carol and Tim interview Ron Eliasaf, head of Northwind Group, a private real estate investment firm, for a deep dive into investment trends, policy incentives, infrastructure needs, and demographic shifts, especially regarding senior and healthcare housing.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Current State of Housing Market Affordability

• The episode opens with a discussion of Bloomberg Intelligence findings: Affordability constraints have driven many potential homebuyers to remain renters, boosting single-family rental operators (01:45–02:30).
• Carol Massar: "Potential U.S. homebuyers are staying on the sidelines as affordability dominates and confidence in the economy and housing is weak." (01:45)

2. Investor Activity vs. Homebuyers

• Ron Eliasaf: Professional investment activity is brisk, with higher transaction volumes between experienced buyers, even as individual homebuyers hold back due to high mortgage rates and supply scarcity. (02:56)
• "For us it's been a record year so far with almost 1.2 billion of loans originations." (02:56)
• Explanation of “Professional Buyers”: Developers and institutions who are more active in current conditions than individual buyers. (03:20–03:23)

3. Impact of Policy and Political Certainty

• Q: Why the surge in activity?

  • Ron: A more stable political landscape in NYC (e.g., new mayor known and policies clarified) increases market confidence. (03:43–04:01)
  • "The market likes predictability... Investment sales can happen because now people can account for it in their underwriting." (03:43)

• NYC’s Pro-Development Approach: The current mayor is considered "pro-development," prioritizing long-term growth and supply. (04:04–04:36)

  • "You need a long-term horizon plan to create more units." (04:36)

4. The Math & Policy Behind Affordable Housing

• Tax incentives are essential for making affordable developments viable. Eliasaf breaks down programs like 467m (office-to-residential conversion: 35-year tax break for 25% affordable units), 421a, J51. (04:56–05:33)
  • "In order to make it viable... you need some tax incentive program." (04:56)
  • "The wrong way of doing it is increasing property tax... Doing these tax incentives for developers is the right solution." (05:37)

5. AI, Jobs, and Future Housing Demand

• Carol: Raises existential questions about NYC’s future as remote work and AI change employment patterns. (05:50)
• Ron: Believes NYC’s long-term draw for young talent remains strong, though sector leadership may shift from finance to tech. (06:09)
  • "Right now, the biggest office driver... is tech companies." (06:09)
• Discussion of "universal income" ideas and whether developers are yet factoring in dramatic AI-related shifts in workforce and housing need. Ron thinks it's at least five years out. (07:01–07:50)
  • "We had a big debate in the office today. Will they tax AI? ... A way to maybe pay for that sort of program. I think we're not there yet." (07:29)

6. City Competition & Tax Policy

• Discussion of the impact of tax policy on capital flight, e.g., billionaires moving from CA to FL. Eliasaf sees the top 10 MSAs (major cities) as robust, diverse, and here for the long run—NYC included. (08:15)
  • "You're going to see New York, Miami, Louisiana, Chicago... these cities are here to stay." (08:15)

7. Infrastructure Investment Needs

• NYC faces aging infrastructure (pipes over 100 years old, strained utilities). This issue is also national. (08:39–09:17)
• Ron: "There needs to be a massive investment in infrastructure across the country... from roads to airports to seaports to data to subways and mass transportation." (09:17)
• Recent improvements at LaGuardia and ongoing JFK reconstruction are cited as examples of needed investment and long-term payoff. (09:52–10:09)

8. Senior Housing and Healthcare Real Estate

• U.S. demographics: With baby boomers aging (turning 80 in 2026), the need for senior and skilled nursing housing is rising. Northwind now allocates 30% of its portfolio to healthcare real estate. (10:15)
  • "We shifted our strategy... more towards the skilled nursing side. We've done over 2 billion of skilled nursing transaction." (10:38)
• Supply Constraints: Many states cap new supply, making existing skilled nursing assets more valuable. (11:15)
• Labor Shortage: The nursing shortage is acute; the need for nurses and nurse practitioners is growing fastest nationally. Both local and immigrant labor are critical. (11:33–11:50)
  • "It's the number one growing job right now in the country." (11:50)

9. Limits of AI in Healthcare

• Despite all the tech talk, AI cannot replace hands-on care jobs in healthcare and senior housing.
  • "I feel like the strains that we're seeing in healthcare and AI can't do it." — Tim (12:10)
  • "Helping somebody change their clothes, take a bath... but most importantly, company and socialize." — Ron (12:30)

10. Private Credit and Real Estate

• Ron: Private credit market stress is visible in corporate (e.g., software) lending, not in real estate lending backed by hard assets.
  • "In real estate, we feel very comfortable. We haven't seen that pain at all." (13:01)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the importance of tax incentives:
  • "Doing these tax incentives for developers is the right solution." — Ron Eliasaf (05:37)
• On NYC's resilience:
  • "New York is here to stay for the long run. May adapt, some jobs will go, but you might have new tech companies coming in." — Ron (06:09)
• On infrastructure:
  • "You want to see where jobs are going to go? You're going to have a lot of jobs creating the next wave of infrastructure." — Ron (09:17)
• On senior care workforce:
  • "It's the number one growing job right now in the country." — Ron (11:50)
• On AI's limits in care:
  • "Helping somebody change their clothes, take a bath... and most importantly, company and socialize." — Ron (12:30)

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Important Timestamps

• 01:45 Housing affordability data and the trend toward renting
• 02:56 Ron Eliasaf on investor activity vs. end buyers
• 03:43 Importance of political stability for the market
• 04:56 How tax incentives enable affordable development
• 06:09 NYC’s long-term potential and changing job sectors
• 07:29 Future impact of AI, universal income debates
• 08:15 Major city resilience and diversity
• 09:17 National infrastructure needs and potential for job growth
• 10:38 Shifting focus to senior/skilled nursing housing
• 11:50 Nursing as the fastest-growing job category
• 13:01 Private credit stress vs. real estate lending stability

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Tone & Language

The conversation is analytical with a pragmatic, slightly optimistic tone, balancing realism about development and investment constraints with a strong belief in urban and market resilience.

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This summary covers the central discussions about housing affordability, investor behavior, necessary policy responses, infrastructure upgrades, the impact of demographic shifts, and market-specific risks and opportunities. It offers an accessible recap for listeners interested in real estate, public policy, and future urban development.

Transcript

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news.

[Carol Massar]

You're listening to Bloomberg Businessweek with Carol Massar and Tim Stanvak on Bloomberg Radio. Really interesting note from our Bloomberg Intelligence team out about how US Housing affordability favors renting over owning. Here's what the team writes. Carol Potential U.S. homebuyers are staying on the sidelines as affordability dominates and confidence in the economy and housing is weak. This is based on Bloomberg Intelligence's proprietary survey.

[Tim Stankus]

Yeah, it doesn't help. I think at one point we saw some movement in mortgage rates to the downside that was getting things starting to move a little bit. But I think we've seen a little bit of a move back up.

[Carol Massar]

Yes. So these analysts, Drew Redding and Jeff Langbaum, they say that single family rental operators, Invitation homes and AMH also stand to benefit as affordability constraints slow the conversion of renters to owners.

[Tim Stankus]

All right, so let's get to it because back with us is Ron Eliasaf. He is founder and managing director of Northwind Group. It's a real estate private equity firm in Manhattan that has transacted an over $6 billion worth of debt and equity Investments, residential, commercial, senior living and health care properties. Firm has about 2 1/2 billion in assets under management. He's back here in our Bloomberg Interactive broker studio. Good to have you here with us.

[Adobe/Podcast Announcer]

How are you?

[Ron Eliasaf]

I'm great. Thank you Carol and Tim for having me.

[Tim Stankus]

How's the year going?

[Ron Eliasaf]

Honestly, for us it started really strong. What we're seeing, it's true what you said on the private home and buyers on the sidelines where we're seeing in the investment sales market, transactions between professional buyers are actually much higher. The bid ask spread between buyers and sellers has narrowed and we're seeing a much increased transaction volume. And for us it's been a record year so far with almost 1.2 billion of loans originations.

[Tim Stankus]

You said professional buyers. What do you mean?

[Ron Eliasaf]

Developers, institutions. I think for the private home buyers, they're on the sidelines as you mentioned because mortgage rates are still high and there's not a lot of product out there. We're seeing scarcity of supply.

[Carol Massar]

What do you attribute your good year just as of in the middle of March, so there's a lot of year left. What do you attribute the strong start to?

[Ron Eliasaf]

I think the end of last year had a big political uncertainty. Who would be the next mayor, for example, in New York City. Now we know the market likes predictability, so we know who the new mayor. We understand the policy and investment sales can happen because now people can kind of fathom and understand what they should account for in their underwriting.

[Tim Stankus]

What is the policy that you understand to be. Has it really been.

[Ron Eliasaf]

Honestly, if you look through and focus, it actually seems that he's pro development. As fine as it seems. He wants to build. He understands the supply side needs to get handled and solved.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, look what he'd said to President Trump in Washington D.C. he brought a version of a New York Daily News cover, the old Gerald Ford cover. Right. New York City. Ford to city, drop dead. Trump to city. Let's build.

[Ron Eliasaf]

Yeah, that's what he was saying in Long Island City. I mean that will take 10, 15 years to get done.

[Carol Massar]

That's a big project.

[Ron Eliasaf]

Big project. But I think that's the kind of stuff the city needs to think about and try and create. It's not going to solve in two to three years. You need a long term horizon plan to create more units.

[Tim Stankus]

But is it affordable housing? Because you know, as a developer, walk us through kind of the math of that, like what you need to have happen in terms of what the rents need to be in order to make it a Viable project.

[Ron Eliasaf]

So in order to make it a viable project almost in New York City specifically, you need some tax incentive program to exist. So for the office to resi conversion, we've seen 467m which basically it's a trade off. You get a 35 year tax break but you have 25% affordable. I think you want to see programs like 421 a reinstated J51. I think the public and policy and office holders.

[Tim Stankus]

What are these policies for give you like that you just mentioned, you get

[Ron Eliasaf]

a tax break for 25 years or 30 years or more and in exchange you give 25% of the units to be affordable at reduced rents.

[Tim Stankus]

Those were the different ones that you were mentioning.

[Ron Eliasaf]

Yeah, there's also different. Yeah, it works. It worked in the past. It needs to be instated. You need money for it, you need a budget for it. Right? Yeah. The wrong way of doing it is increasing property tax and saying, well, the city will figure out some way. I think doing these tax incentives for developers is the right solution.

[Carol Massar]

You know, there's this sort of existential question about New York City and employment and it has to do with AI and the way that companies are thinking differently with about employees as a result of this technology. Does. Does New York City remain the place where people want to be in an environment where companies don't need as many employees?

[Ron Eliasaf]

It's a great question. Right now numbers showing that, yes. I mean the city is growing between 60 to 80,000 people a year. Mostly younger people coming here for the job opportunities. What will happen in three to five years with AI implementation? I think it's a little bit too soon to tell. I personally think New York is here to stay for the long run. May adapt, some jobs will go, but you might have new tech companies coming in. Right now the biggest office driver of the market is tech companies coming in and taking office space. It used to be financial firms, now it's tech companies. So I think jobs will move from one kind of vertical to another.

[Tim Stankus]

You know, we had a developer in here, a housing person, real estate. Forgive me, the name's escaping me, but they talked about that in the future. They talked about workforce housing and developing. They do a lot of work in the south. And one of the things is it

[Carol Massar]

Thomas Carroll of Ballast?

[Adobe/Podcast Announcer]

I think so.

[Tim Stankus]

Well done, well done. Talked about that in the future, Ron, that he's thinking about a universal income that will be paid to employees and workers and citizens because they will lose their jobs because of AI. And he's thinking about that down the road to build housing that accommodates that sector. Are you guys at that point at all in terms of the impact AI might have on our world?

[Ron Eliasaf]

I think we're at least five years out from that. It's very interesting to discuss it. We had a big debate in the office today. Will they tax AI, Right? Will AI usage in firms will actually get taxed and that will be a way to eventually pay for maybe that sort of program? I think it's too soon to really. There's a lot of great ideas and thoughts and debates. I think we're not there yet.

[Tim Stankus]

Not there yet.

[Carol Massar]

Well, my concern in an environment like that would be about potentially driving capital away. I mean, you look at what's happening with billionaires from California moving to Florida, if you know, and there's an entire conversation we could have about that and sort of the tax policy that's being put forward that Governor Gavin Newsom is even against. But does that happen in an environment if we, if we do tax that type of.

[Ron Eliasaf]

I think what you're going to see is the top 10 leading MSAs are here to stay, will expand. There might be some movement, some billionaire will move from one city to the next. But in general you're going to see New York, Miami, Louisiana, Chicago, Boston, Washington, D.C. these cities are here to stay and they're going to have a diverse mix of people living in them from the billionaires to, you know, blue collar workers. And you have to accommodate everybody.

[Carol Massar]

So. Okay, so we, we're going to get, we were going to get to a story earlier about more people riding the New York City subways as a result of congestion pricing. And it's this sort of infrastructure conversation that I mean, I'm increasingly thinking about. Maybe it's when the snow kind of moves away, ye potholes start showing up in the, in the roads.

[Tim Stankus]

So what do you want to ask

[Carol Massar]

the infrastructure of New York and making sure that, that it's. Look, we have pipes under, under the city that are over 100 years old that are constantly breaking and this, you know, utilities can only do so much. But, but how do you keep up infrastructure in an environment like this? I think it's a city that wants to grow and attract.

[Ron Eliasaf]

It's not just a city. I think you look at the US There needs to be a massive investment in infrastructure across the country. I think if you look at the next hundred years, what this country needs is to build better infrastructure from roads to airports to seaports to data to subways and mass transportation. I mean the country is growing Population wise, you have to make that investment. You want to see where jobs are going to go. You're going to have a lot of jobs creating the next wave of infrastructure. See what's happening in JFK right now, how much money is being poured into operated. That's the kind of things that needs to happen in the city and across the country.

[Carol Massar]

Whoever thought we'd be saying how nice LaGuardia is?

[Tim Stankus]

It is.

[Carol Massar]

There were times when I went to LaGuardia, like 10 years ago when, when they'd have a bucket, it would be raining and they'd have a. Or it wouldn't even be raining and they'd have a bucket sitting there like collecting water.

[Tim Stankus]

There are some gates you have to walk a long, long way though to get to.

[Ron Eliasaf]

Infrastructure investment is over the horizon. In five years you'll say how amazing JFK is. And right now nobody wants to go there.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, looking forward to that.

[Tim Stankus]

One of the things I want to ask you about is the old, like aging baby boomers. The oldest baby boomers are turning 80 in 2026. And so I just think about the aging of America. One of the things that you guys are big time into and I think before we got going, you said 30% of your portfolio or your world is health care. Talk to us about the growth that you're seeing in that area and what kind of developments.

[Ron Eliasaf]

We shifted our strategy about eight years ago more towards the skilled nursing side. We've been investing in senior living, senior housing. And then what we identified is people stay at home longer, they become actually more frail. And then a lot of them now skip from going from their home to an assisted living and they go straight, unfortunately, to a skilled nursing setting. So we're big believers in skilled nursing setting. We've done Last year over 2 billion of skilled nursing transaction, mostly on the financing side. And what we've seen is occupancy is going up gradually. It's hard to create new supply because a lot of states in the country cap the supply certificate of need or other forms of capping supply.

[Tim Stankus]

We hear that a lot.

[Ron Eliasaf]

So even though it's perceived as a more and it is a more highly operational environment and a complex operational environment, we really believe in it and we're seeing great results in it and we're seeing more institutions invest in it. It's perceived. We call it social infrastructure.

[Carol Massar]

Yes. Where does the labor come from for skilled nursing, especially with the decline in immigration here in the us?

[Ron Eliasaf]

Well, that's a good question. I mean, the number one job in the country that's open, it's needed is nurses.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. Healthcare is where we see all the growth.

[Tim Stankus]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

Without health care, there'd be nothing.

[Tim Stankus]

And a lot of nurses often come from overseas.

[Carol Massar]

Yes, they do.

[Ron Eliasaf]

But also local. And a lot of these, if you look in a lot of states, it's local workforce for people in the community that work there. It's not foreigners at all. And I think it's the number one growing job right now in the country. Nurses, nurse practitioners. And the need is only going to continue and grow.

[Tim Stankus]

Yeah. I feel like the strains that we're seeing in healthcare and AI can't do it.

[Carol Massar]

No,

[Tim Stankus]

no.

[Carol Massar]

Before you, I would sometimes like, I feel like I've gotten like an I.V. or like a blood draw, not an I.V. and I wish like a robot had done it because I was like, that wasn't. But some have been pretty amazing.

[Tim Stankus]

Yeah. I feel I'm pretty lucky.

[Ron Eliasaf]

Helping somebody change their clothes, take a bath.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. Oh, yeah.

[Ron Eliasaf]

And most importantly, company and socialize.

[Tim Stankus]

Although we do talk about that. There's a lot of older people that it's terrible, but are alone and you think about some kind of robotic.

[Ron Eliasaf]

There are solutions for that.

[Carol Massar]

Right.

[Ron Eliasaf]

For the more aging baby boomers that are in their early 80s that stay at home. But when you're more frail, you need to be in that setting.

[Tim Stankus]

Agree, agreed. 30 seconds, 40 seconds left. All the worries about private credit and we're looking at private markets, Are you feeling the impact of any of that?

[Ron Eliasaf]

Not in real estate, direct lending. I mean, where we're seeing all the news right now is in corporate private credit, corporate lending, a lot of exposure to software companies that are taking a hit, obviously because of AI in real estate, we're in asset backed lending. We're focused on the value of the collateral value of residential real estate. In New York City, that hasn't moved. I mean, it has moved. It went up, not down. So in real estate, we feel very comfortable. We haven't seen that pain at all.

[Tim Stankus]

So great to have you here.

[Adobe/Podcast Announcer]

Thank you so much.

[Tim Stankus]

Really appreciate it. Ron Elias, founder and managing partner of Northwind Group, joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive broker studio.

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