The Signs That Favor the Bulls in 2026

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: The Signs That Favor the Bulls in 2026
Date: January 7, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec
Guest: Vance Howard, CEO & Portfolio Manager, Howard Capital Management

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Overview

This episode centers on the bullish signals for the markets heading into 2026, exploring economic indicators, political developments, and market trends. Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec are joined by Vance Howard, who shares his perspectives on energy prices, geopolitical maneuvering, proprietary market signals, and the sectors poised to perform.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

Oil Prices, Geopolitics, and Inflation

• Current Energy Dynamics:

  • Vance Howard notes that a drop in oil prices could positively affect inflation, and that falling energy prices will benefit energy services companies (01:29).

    "I think you're going to see energy prices drop. I think you're going to see energy services company do better. If we can drop energy prices, you know, it's going to affect inflation."
    — Vance Howard [01:29]

  • There's an oversupply of oil, but Howard doesn't see prices going so low as to stop exploration (01:53).

• Geopolitical Moves—Blocking China:

  • Howard suggests that U.S. actions in global energy markets may be motivated as much by aiming to block China as by ensuring supply (02:12).

    "I also think he wanted to block China. I think most of this has to do with blocking China."
    — Vance Howard [02:12]

U.S. Politics and Market Impact

• White House Influence:

  • Discussion of President Trump’s moves and rhetoric, such as a rumored plan to purchase Greenland, is met with skepticism; Howard labels much of this as talk unlikely to materialize (03:15 - 04:02).

    "It's really not. I think it's talk. I think it's talk. But you know, what if he did..."
    — Vance Howard [04:02]

  • Comparisons made between the U.S. stance on territorial acquisitions and criticisms of Russia’s land grabs (04:22).

    "Well, in an environment where we look at President Putin of Russia and land grabs and say that that's not okay."
    — Carol Massar [04:22]

• Market Sensitivity to Presidential Rhetoric:

  • Howard advises investors to watch actions, not just words, since President Trump tends to negotiate from extreme positions then moderate (03:15 - 04:52).

    "He always starts way up here and then he comes way down. Like with tariffs, he started at 5,000%. Now he's down to 12 or something."
    — Vance Howard [03:15]

Market Models and the 2026 Bullish Signal

• Howard’s Proprietary ACM Model:

  • The model ("buy line") is a trend-following signal dictating buy, sell, or hold positions. While not always accurate (lags especially during volatility), it has a 68% historical success rate (05:33 - 05:48).

    "The buy line is 68. 32, 32% of the time. It's not going to work. ... But 68% of the time it's going to work."
    — Vance Howard [05:37]

• Current Positioning and Outlook:

  • Howard's model is currently "very positive" and "100% invested," with a strong bullish stance for 2026 (05:50).

    "We're positive. Very positive. Yeah, we're 100% invested. Have been for months on end. I'm bullish into 2026."
    — Vance Howard [05:50]

• Historical Trends and Election Years:

  • If January is positive, there's a 73% chance the year will finish up; if the first five days and the full month are up, that probability increases to 83% (05:50 - 06:10).

    "If January is up, there's a 73% chance that 2026 will be positive. If the first five days are up, in January is up, it's an 83% probability."
    — Vance Howard [05:50]

• Market Resilience:

  • Markets are up most of the time, even in "sloppy years," according to Howard (06:15 - 06:32).

    "The majority of the time the market is up."
    — Tim Stenovec [06:21]

Sector Opportunities: 2026

• Technical Market & Sector Rotation:
  • Howard predicts a technically driven market, with sectors beyond the "big tech" names beginning to show momentum, specifically mentioning small caps, basic materials, and financials (06:46 - 07:05).

    "I think this year ... we're going to see this is going to be a technical trading market. ... You're also seeing other things do well like basic materials. You're starting to see financials start to come."
    — Vance Howard [06:46]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Talk is talk and cheap. You know, talk's cheap."
  — Vance Howard [04:29]
• "He always starts at a bizarre price ... and then he takes the deal."
  — Vance Howard [04:38]
• "We're positive. Very positive. Yeah, we're 100% invested. Have been for months on end. I'm bullish into 2026."
  — Vance Howard [05:50]
• "Markets are up, the vast majority of the time."
  — Tim Stenovec & Vance Howard [06:21 - 06:32]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Energy and Oil Market Discussion: 01:29 – 02:32
• White House, China, and Tariffs: 02:32 – 04:52
• Proprietary Buy Line Model & Market Positioning: 05:05 – 05:50
• Historical Market Trends in Election Years: 05:50 – 06:21
• Sector Outlook and Small Caps: 06:46 – 07:05

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Conclusion

This episode provides an upbeat perspective on the 2026 markets, emphasizing the prevalence of market resilience, the need for investor patience amid political volatility, and the potential for sector rotation into areas outside the usual tech leaders. Vance Howard’s optimism is rooted in market signals, historical trends, and expanding opportunities amid the year’s unique economic and political backdrop.

Transcript

[A]

At Marsh, we believe that perspective powers progress. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company. A new marsh built to solve the world's most complex challenges and uncover new opportunities for our clients. We're better positioned than ever to help your business navigate obstacles and unlock potential across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments and management consulting. Learn [e-mail] podcast. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news.

[B]

You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Massar and Tim Stanovec on Bloomberg Radio.

[C]

Great to have back with us, Vance Howard. He is CEO and portfolio manager of Howard Capital Management. The Firm has approximately 6 billion in assets under management. And once again, we find him in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Welcome, welcome. Happy New Year.

[B]

This is my favorite place to come. You two are my two favorites. I love being here.

[C]

Well, we like having you here as well in a year where Venice, Venezuela, Freddie and Slip.

[D]

That's kind of where we want to start.

[C]

Well, the point is who to thunk. This wasn't necessarily on our list of things to watch in 2026, but yet here we are. And I think today people are saying this is going to take some time to work its way out. So maybe not so market moving and maybe not so impactful on the energy sector yet. But I'm just curious, does this factor at all in?

[B]

I think it's a good thing to be quite candid. I think you're going to see energy prices drop. I think you're going to see energy services company do better. If we can drop energy prices, you know, it's going to affect inflation. So that'll bring inflation down a little bit. You know, West Texas Intermediate crude is at 57 bucks a barrel.

[D]

I was asking, do you want the price to go down?

[B]

Well, since I'm not in the oil and gas industry yet, a lot of.

[D]

Your clients probably are.

[B]

Well, some are. But you know, if you're trading the energy, the service companies, you can do quite well this year, I think.

[D]

So the reason I asked this about, again, it's all supply and demand. That's what it comes down to. That's, you know, economics 101. But if we think about the glut of oil that exists right now, if we even have more coming online, then do we get to a point where oil could get so low that there would be no incentive for companies to do this exploration?

[B]

But I don't think we'll ever get to really to that point. But I think what he wanted to do is secure the pipeline that's coming into us. And I also think he wanted to block China. I think most of this has to do with blocking China. Was China in the day before he took over, before he came in and got, you know, the, the, the, the dictator. Yeah, so, so I think some of this has more to do with China just as much as does oil and gas.

[C]

You know, once again, you know, we're focused on the White House and things coming out from President Trump. Reuters is reporting that President Trump and advisers are discussing the purchase of Greenland again. This is coming from Reuters. Reuters reporter posting this on exciting. A senior US Official again, is it for sale, Carol? I. Well, ask Greenland and they would say no, but I' about how you are factoring in what might come from Washington, what matters, what doesn't. Because there are things that are said that ultimately. Like look at tariffs.

[B]

Right.

[C]

We started out one course and it certainly changed very quickly in terms of how impactful it will be. But I'm just curious, how do you factor that in?

[B]

Well, it is, you know, when you looked at Trump's first administration, the first four months where they were undisturbed, they were disturbing because the market was freaking everywhere. Nobody knew how to take this guy. Yeah. But then you kind of calmed down. He realized he says a lot, so you realize, just let it go and see what actually happens. Because he always starts way up here and then he comes way down. Like with tariffs, he started at 5,000%. Now he's down to 12 or something. And he's starting to work with people, so I think people just get numb to him.

[C]

Do you take stuff like this, though, serious?

[B]

Absolutely. Oh, with Greenland, to some degree, because of rare earth.

[D]

As you guys have been talking about this, we're getting additional information and you're making a mark, like, with your hands. Okay. It's up here, it's down here. Different extremes. Tell me on where this extreme would be. US Military used to take Greenland, Quote, always an option, according to Reuters. Where is that on your spectrum?

[B]

It's really not. I think that's. I think it's talk. I think it's talk. But you know, what if he did. I think, what, 60,000 people live there.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

I mean, we're talking a tiny town. The country is just a modest part of a sovereign. It is. Yes. And. But there's, you know, part of NATO, too. Yes. So it would cause an issue.

[C]

I mean, much.

[B]

Yeah. Say the least.

[C]

Well, in an environment where we look at President Putin of Russia and land grabs and say that that's not okay.

[B]

It's not okay. And I'm not saying that he hasn't grabbed anything yet. Yeah. So let's just say talk is talk and cheap. You know, talk's cheap.

[C]

Why does he do that, do you think?

[B]

I think that's just the way he's always been as a negotiator. He starts at a bizarre price. Like, if he wants to buy something, he starts at a bizarrely low price, and he works them down to a point that it's fair to him, and then he takes the deal. But that's his modus operandi. He's a deal maker.

[C]

So as investors, are you saying wait until the dust settles?

[B]

Yeah. And, you know, it's like, what happened with the tariffs? I mean, the market dropped like crazy. And then they came to find out a week later, he goes, I can back off a lot, you know, and next thing, it shot back up.

[D]

So what's the. I always want to ask you about the byline. The ACM byline. This is the proprietary model that you have that gives. That uses signals to tell you whether to buy, sell. Does it also say hold?

[B]

Oh, yeah, absolutely. I think that's one of the key points, is to keep you invested. Where is.

[D]

Where is it right now?

[B]

We're positive now. We didn't have. We. We had a good year last year. It was a little bit worse. Whipsaw y when that April happened and you see those big drops, it was a little bit whipsaw for us because it is a trend indicator. And I want to stay with the trend as long as I can until the trend changes, then I want to move my position.

[C]

Did the trend lag as an indicator?

[B]

Absolutely. It lags. Yeah. You're never going to call it.

[C]

So you get hurt a little bit.

[B]

A little bit. You're going to get whipsaw. The buy line is 68. 32, 32% of the time. It's not going to work. And you're going to be sort of neutral or even below it, maybe lose a little bit. But 68% of the time it's going to work.

[C]

So where is it right now?

[B]

We're positive. Very positive. Yeah, we're 100% invested. Have been for months on end. I'm bullish into 2026. You know, we were talking about this, and I think I sent you guys some dialogues of if January is up, there's a 73% chance that 2026 will be positive. If the first five days are up, in January is up, it's an 83% probability. 2026 will be positive.

[D]

We got two more days.

[B]

That's exactly right. So let's cross our fingers.

[C]

Does an election year or midterm year, it doesn't matter.

[B]

It doesn't matter at all. But let's look at this. The three of us are incredibly positive people, so we won't even talk about if it's a down.

[D]

So we're also realistic. But the truth is, I mean, the majority of the time the market is up.

[B]

It is the vast majority of the time.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

And even if you have a bad year, like let's say January is down and we have a sloppy year, that doesn't mean it's going to end up terrible. Yeah. Just means it's going to be a little bit more hard to navigate.

[C]

Before we wrap 15 seconds here, is there any indication in terms of like the Max 7, the big tech, the trade, any indications?

[B]

I love it all, but I think this year, Carol, I think we're going to see this is going to be a technical trading market. In other words, you're going to see a lot of things that are moving that weren't moving. You know, I've been, I've talked about small caps for two years and been embarrassed because they haven't moved until recently. But they're starting to move. But you're also seeing other things do well like basic materials. You're starting to see financials start to come.

[C]

All right, so you'll have to come back because we'll talk and do some follow up. Vance Howard.