Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: The Signs That Favor the Bulls in 2026
Date: January 7, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec
Guest: Vance Howard, CEO & Portfolio Manager, Howard Capital Management

Overview

This episode centers on the bullish signals for the markets heading into 2026, exploring economic indicators, political developments, and market trends. Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec are joined by Vance Howard, who shares his perspectives on energy prices, geopolitical maneuvering, proprietary market signals, and the sectors poised to perform.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Oil Prices, Geopolitics, and Inflation

• Current Energy Dynamics:

  • Vance Howard notes that a drop in oil prices could positively affect inflation, and that falling energy prices will benefit energy services companies (01:29).

    "I think you're going to see energy prices drop. I think you're going to see energy services company do better. If we can drop energy prices, you know, it's going to affect inflation."
    — Vance Howard [01:29]

  • There's an oversupply of oil, but Howard doesn't see prices going so low as to stop exploration (01:53).

• Geopolitical Moves—Blocking China:

  • Howard suggests that U.S. actions in global energy markets may be motivated as much by aiming to block China as by ensuring supply (02:12).

    "I also think he wanted to block China. I think most of this has to do with blocking China."
    — Vance Howard [02:12]

U.S. Politics and Market Impact

• White House Influence:

  • Discussion of President Trump’s moves and rhetoric, such as a rumored plan to purchase Greenland, is met with skepticism; Howard labels much of this as talk unlikely to materialize (03:15 - 04:02).

    "It's really not. I think it's talk. I think it's talk. But you know, what if he did..."
    — Vance Howard [04:02]

  • Comparisons made between the U.S. stance on territorial acquisitions and criticisms of Russia’s land grabs (04:22).

    "Well, in an environment where we look at President Putin of Russia and land grabs and say that that's not okay."
    — Carol Massar [04:22]

• Market Sensitivity to Presidential Rhetoric:

  • Howard advises investors to watch actions, not just words, since President Trump tends to negotiate from extreme positions then moderate (03:15 - 04:52).

    "He always starts way up here and then he comes way down. Like with tariffs, he started at 5,000%. Now he's down to 12 or something."
    — Vance Howard [03:15]

Market Models and the 2026 Bullish Signal

• Howard’s Proprietary ACM Model:

  • The model ("buy line") is a trend-following signal dictating buy, sell, or hold positions. While not always accurate (lags especially during volatility), it has a 68% historical success rate (05:33 - 05:48).

    "The buy line is 68. 32, 32% of the time. It's not going to work. ... But 68% of the time it's going to work."
    — Vance Howard [05:37]

• Current Positioning and Outlook:

  • Howard's model is currently "very positive" and "100% invested," with a strong bullish stance for 2026 (05:50).

    "We're positive. Very positive. Yeah, we're 100% invested. Have been for months on end. I'm bullish into 2026."
    — Vance Howard [05:50]

• Historical Trends and Election Years:

  • If January is positive, there's a 73% chance the year will finish up; if the first five days and the full month are up, that probability increases to 83% (05:50 - 06:10).

    "If January is up, there's a 73% chance that 2026 will be positive. If the first five days are up, in January is up, it's an 83% probability."
    — Vance Howard [05:50]

• Market Resilience:

  • Markets are up most of the time, even in "sloppy years," according to Howard (06:15 - 06:32).

    "The majority of the time the market is up."
    — Tim Stenovec [06:21]

Sector Opportunities: 2026

• Technical Market & Sector Rotation:
  • Howard predicts a technically driven market, with sectors beyond the "big tech" names beginning to show momentum, specifically mentioning small caps, basic materials, and financials (06:46 - 07:05).

    "I think this year ... we're going to see this is going to be a technical trading market. ... You're also seeing other things do well like basic materials. You're starting to see financials start to come."
    — Vance Howard [06:46]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Talk is talk and cheap. You know, talk's cheap."
  — Vance Howard [04:29]
• "He always starts at a bizarre price ... and then he takes the deal."
  — Vance Howard [04:38]
• "We're positive. Very positive. Yeah, we're 100% invested. Have been for months on end. I'm bullish into 2026."
  — Vance Howard [05:50]
• "Markets are up, the vast majority of the time."
  — Tim Stenovec & Vance Howard [06:21 - 06:32]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Energy and Oil Market Discussion: 01:29 – 02:32
• White House, China, and Tariffs: 02:32 – 04:52
• Proprietary Buy Line Model & Market Positioning: 05:05 – 05:50
• Historical Market Trends in Election Years: 05:50 – 06:21
• Sector Outlook and Small Caps: 06:46 – 07:05

Conclusion

This episode provides an upbeat perspective on the 2026 markets, emphasizing the prevalence of market resilience, the need for investor patience amid political volatility, and the potential for sector rotation into areas outside the usual tech leaders. Vance Howard’s optimism is rooted in market signals, historical trends, and expanding opportunities amid the year’s unique economic and political backdrop.