Trump Amps Threat to ‘Take Out’ Iran Before Tuesday Deadline

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary
Episode: Trump Amps Threat to ‘Take Out’ Iran Before Tuesday Deadline
Date: April 6, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into escalating Middle East tensions, focusing on President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran: agree to a deal by Tuesday 8pm New York time or face intensified US military strikes—including potential action against civilian infrastructure. The discussion features up-to-the-minute reporting and analysis on the political, military, energy, and market implications from key regions and players. Guests include on-the-ground correspondents, regional experts, a refined products reporter, and a global investment strategist.

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Key Segments & Insights

1. Immediate Reactions from Israel

Guest: Dan Williams, Bloomberg News Middle East Reporter (from Jerusalem)
Timestamps: 02:24–11:57

• Israeli Leadership’s Focus on US Policy:

  • Israeli leaders closely watch every word from the US:
    “You can bet your bottom dollar that the prime minister Netayahu, the defense minister, everyone else involved in decision making was watching too.” (Dan Williams, 02:48)
  • Israel’s war decisions hinge on US direction; if the US calls it off, so does Israel, at least against Iran.

• Critical Juncture & Strategic Ambiguity:

  • President Trump’s press conference highlighted a crossroads: escalation vs. peace.
  • Strategic ambiguity persists over terms like "ceasefire," possibly to keep Iran engaged in negotiations without triggering their security fears.

• State of the War:

  • Iran may still possess over 1,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel; Hezbollah holds about 10,000 shorter-range rockets.
  • Recent attacks include a deadly missile strike on Haifa, underscoring ongoing risks and civilian toll.

• Domestic Resilience in Israel:

  • Despite ongoing attacks, there are signs of normalization; some public venues and schools are reopening, reflecting an effort to maintain daily life amidst crisis.
  • “Every additional day is a blessing...Israel finally has the opportunity...to inflict lasting damage on its arch enemy Iran.” (Dan Williams, 07:26)

• Israel’s Bottom Line:

  • Israel seeks enduring security gains. If the US ends military action, Israel may still want leeway to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon.

2. Iranian Perspective & the Geopolitical Chessboard

Guest: Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute
Timestamps: 14:16–25:33

• Iranian Public Sentiment:

  • Early war hope: US intervention would end the Islamic Republic, enabling “normal life” (Alex Vatanka, 15:07). Now, after growing civilian casualties, the mood is more wary about the destruction—a key shift in public calculation.

• US and Israeli Goals Diverge:

  • Israel prefers “weak states” nearby, regardless of regime nature, while the US has commercial and strategic interests in a stable, open Iran.
  • Collapse of Iran is not in Washington’s interest, but the US wants regime behavior changes.

• Potential for Regime Change & IRGC Control:

  • The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has become a more dominant "deep state" actor after Supreme Leader Khamenei’s assassination (Feb 20).
  • “They might be fanatics from our perspective but they also want to live for another day.” (Alex Vatanka, 21:41) The IRGC may try to negotiate a "middle ground" solution.

• Risks of Escalation and Retaliation:

  • Destroying Iranian civilian infrastructure could provoke Iranian reprisals across the Gulf, threatening investments and oil flows in states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

• Legal and Ethical Dilemmas:

  • The US is acting outside traditional international law frameworks, justified by the Islamic Republic’s brutality against its own people.
  • “To attack another country without really an imminent threat being posed...that he gets away with it...is because of the nature of the Islamic Republic.” (Alex Vatanka, 24:26)

3. Energy Complex: Many Points of Vulnerability

Guest: Will Kubzansky, Bloomberg News Refined Products Reporter
Timestamps: 27:34–34:56

• Widespread Attacks on Energy Infrastructure:

  • Major refineries in Saudi Arabia (Ras Tanura), Kuwait, and UAE have been struck. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is called “pretty close to a nightmare scenario.” (Will Kubzansky, 29:12)
  • Qatar’s LNG production disruption (about 30%) could take years to recover.

• Strategic Chokepoints and Future Risks:

  • Saudi’s east-west pipeline and the Red Sea shipping lanes are potential next targets if fighting expands.
  • “Any and all infrastructure is a question right now…Yanbu has been attacked before in this war, it could be attacked again.” (Will Kubzansky, 31:31)

• Global Supply Chains Already Strained:

  • Asia and Europe are scrambling for petrochemicals and fuel; Japan is resorting to US imports, and some countries resort to rationing and subsidies.

• Market Uncertainty:

  • Energy market participants “are flying blind and hoping they know more soon.” (Will Kubzansky, 32:23)
  • Duration of the conflict remains a crucial unknown, with the economic fallout growing the longer hostilities continue.

4. Markets & Investment Perspective

Guest: Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, Global Investment Strategist, Hartford Funds
Timestamps: 38:00–45:04

• Market Mood:

  • The current market "lacks conviction," caught between weighing presidential threats against tangible disruption. Optimism persists, but risks are priced in: “The market is optimistic...but ultimately the reality is...there are going to be second round effects of higher oil prices.” (Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, 38:38)

• Sector Winners and Losers:

  • Energy (+33%) and materials (+10%) are outperforming given supply shocks; consumer discretionary, financials, information technology, and healthcare lag due to cost pressures and global uncertainty.

• Strategic Allocation Advice:

  • Focus on longer-term portfolio diversification, not reactive trading.
  • Suggested barbell: overweight US and emerging markets equities (especially in Asia—India, China, Korea, Taiwan) and underweight European equities due to oil sensitivities.
  • Commodities and real assets (infrastructure, critical minerals) are crucial hedges and growth plays.

• US Consumer & Economic Sentiment:

  • Even as the US is a net oil exporter, higher global energy prices affect all products and costs over time, with effects lingering for months post-conflict.
  • Workforce shrinkage poses an additional long-term drag on economic growth: “The workforce is shrinking, and that is really all you need to know even without any disruptions.” (Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, 44:35)

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Notable Quotes

• “This is the tail end of a two year and six or seven month war that began in Gaza, a war that really sees Iran as having orchestrated from the top on several fronts.”
  — Dan Williams (10:10)

• “The idea that Iran collapsing is not in the interest of the United States…but the problem you have right now is how much at all United States can actually…change its ways so you don’t end up collapsing the country.”
  — Alex Vatanka (16:28)

• “The longer [the conflict] goes, the more challenging it gets to restart things—oil field shut-ins, refinery restarts… the duration here is becoming a pretty key question.”
  — Will Kubzansky (30:23)

• “There has been quite a bit priced in…but ultimately the market is optimistic.”
  — Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson (38:38)

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Key Takeaways by Topic

Military & Geopolitical

• Trump’s ultimatum on Iran adds acute tension; both Israeli and US policy/actions closely coordinated.
• Iran retains significant missile capability; fighting and attacks continue, with potential for escalation.
• Israel may seek to continue certain campaigns (e.g., against Hezbollah) even if a US-Iran truce emerges.

Civilian Impact & Local Responses

• Daily life in Israel adapts to conflict: bomb shelters during holidays, attempts at normalization.
• Iranian civilians face acute danger and their early hopes for regime change via outside force are fading amidst destruction.

Energy Markets

• Key regional infrastructure has been attacked, disrupting oil, petrochemical, and LNG supplies.
• Strait of Hormuz closure is a global supply chain nightmare; damage to facilities could mean lasting shortages.
• Recovery will take months or years, even if immediate fighting stops.

Global Economics & Investment

• Oil shock fueling global inflation and cost pressures, especially in fuel-dependent economies.
• US market remains relatively resilient but is not insulated from higher costs.
• Portfolio strategies shift toward hard assets, commodities, and select emerging markets equities.

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Important Timestamps

• 02:24 — Interview: Dan Williams from Jerusalem
• 14:16 — Trump press conference clip and analysis begins; Alex Vatanka joins
• 28:09 — Energy infrastructure segment with Will Kubzansky
• 38:00 — Market and investment strategy discussion with Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson

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Memorable Moments

• Israeli public observed Passover in bomb shelters—“main feast…held by many people inside bomb shelters” (Dan Williams, 10:10)
• Discussion of the "Venezuela model" for Iranian regime transition—“someone within this existing regime who’s willing to cut a deal” (Alex Vatanka, 20:19)
• The “nightmare scenario” of Strait of Hormuz closure and resilience/adaptability of oil markets (Will Kubzansky, 29:12–30:23)
• “The workforce is shrinking, and that is really all you need to know even without any disruptions…” (Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, 44:35)

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Summary Prepared for Listeners Who Missed the Episode:
This episode provided a real-time look at a volatile Middle East crisis, combining frontline perspectives, expert geopolitical analysis, deep-dive energy reporting, and investment strategy. Listeners were left with a nuanced understanding of the military, diplomatic, economic, and market stakes of President Trump’s threat to escalate against Iran if no deal is reached—along with the far-reaching implications for global energy, supply chains, and portfolios.

Transcript

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is bloomberg business week daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people companies and trends shaping today's complex economy plus global business finance and tech news as it happens the bloomberg business week daily podcast with carol massar and tim stanvak on bloomberg radio i want to bring

[Carol Massar]

in the perspective of somebody based in the middle east let's head to jerusalem now and to bloomberg news middle east reporter dan williams dan i just want to know how you read into this press conference lasting just about eighty minutes from the president and other administration officials including chairman of the joint chiefs of staff dan king secretary of defense pete hegseth and others spoke as well what was your takeaway i can assure you

[Dan Williams]

i was not alone in watching it here in israel you can bet your bottom dollar that the prime minister netanyahu the defense minister everyone else involved in decision making was watching too i think they'll to know whether they can continue this war a war that the israelis are gauging measuring by day to day achievements or whether everything will be over within twenty four hours give or take keep in mind that the president outlined what he described as a critical juncture in the war where it could go one of two ways really one hundred eighty degrees either a peaceable solution as the us would define it or a significant escalation and wide scale destruction of iran including civilian structure so given that that would have impacts on the downt downstream effects this is something that was raised in the press conference in terms of confidence perhaps among the iranian population support for this war given that they would suffer more directly should civilian infrastructure be hurt the implications could be really wide ranging as you noted the president kept a degree of strategic ambiguity around the term ceasefire he actually it was a very discursive press conference like many of his are but on that he refused to talk now this could be deliberate ambiguity over talks which he says have been going on apace the iranians deny or have essentially denied that those talks are underway it could also be that he's aware that there's an iranian affront to the term ceasefire the iranians have said that they worry that the idea of a ceasefire would expose them to renewed attack in the future from israel or the us once the allies regroup it could be that trump is aware of this it could be he's trying to step away from that nomenclature for a different term other than ceasefire something that might calm the iranians enough to have them enter a deal that would effectively end the war perhaps not peace perhaps not something north of a ceasefire something between the two but different phrasing that would help them get this deal over the line if indeed there is deal making behind the scenes dan

[Tim Stankavich]

i am curious about the ability to continue war great story by you israel assessing that iran still has more than a thousand missiles capable of reaching it while hezbollah's arsenal in lebanon includes as many as ten thousand shorter range rockets according to military briefings cited by israeli media this weekend dan where are we in this process and this is something we talked about in our planning call this morning like where is the us military where's israel where's iran the actual military hardware capable of continuing this war

[Dan Williams]

well to hear the president tell it this war has been won the iranians are in disarray he said they have no communication structure internally that's a bit hard to reconcile with what we're seeing on the ground and indeed the messaging as you noted from israel specifically the military with unusual openness it's worth noting that in the course of this war certainly as it began the military declined to give its assessments of force strength in iran specifically the iranian missile arsenal this would be a critical issue not just in terms of the threat posed by iran to israel to gulf arab states in its vicinity to us bases and targets in its vicinity but also it's a measure a good yardstick of the duration of the war all you need to do is count them number of missiles fired a day and just extrapolate from that if you have the full number of missiles remaining in iran's arsenal suddenly an israeli officer in charge of intelligence for the air force gave an interview on israel's main news channel saying they had more than one thousand remaining now i can tell you in off record briefings we got in bloomberg at the beginning of the war we're told that number was around two thousand so if that's correct in five weeks of war they reduced it by half that would be some spent in firing at israel some destroyed on the by israel and the us but that gives you a sense that that current rate of fire the current rate of fire potentially the iranians could go on for weeks perhaps even months and the same applies to their hezbollah ally in lebanon which is directing rockets at northern israel and troops invading the south of lebanon it's worth remembering that just overnight last night the iranians managed a missile strike in the northern city of haifa that killed a family of four an elderly couple their son his wife and they are managing to inflict damage and casualties the israelis are reckoning with a continuation of this in the absence of a ceasefire they're saying they're willing to continue fighting but there is a price well

[Carol Massar]

let's talk about that dan and end with that because you are joining us from jerusalem where the attacks certainly have continued in the country of israel what can you tell us about what the israeli government and the israeli military is prepared for in terms of duration

[Dan Williams]

to hear them tell it every additional day is a blessing i use that word guardedly but it was used by an israeli cabinet minister on a radio interview today a blessing in that israel finally has the opportunity the tactical environment in which to inflict lasting damage on its arch enemy iran an enemy whose enmity goes back forty seven years really has radiated around the middle east including groups like hezbollah in lebanon hamas in gaza et cetera supported by iran however the israelis it's worth noting despite the enduring threat are signaling a return to normalcy here and there cinemas have started showing films again airlines are expanding the number of passengers allowed on outgoing flights there's even talk potentially of a return next week of some school students to their schools so it would appear the israelis are trying to make adjustments while still pursuing this war as long as they can in order to achieve a lasting effect if not peace than at least the destruction and deterrence of their main

[Tim Stankavich]

enemy is there a clear message dan about the intent from israel the israeli government on the war and kind of where we are and bringing it to an end and i'm also curious about how that contrasts with messaging throughout the

[Dan Williams]

region well i think the us president there's a reason everyone stopped in their tracks to watch that eighty minute sprawling very interesting press conference he's calling the shots no one doubts it including iran i imagine certainly israel two weeks ago the israeli prime minister netanyahu in a press conference said openly that trump is the quote leader of this campaign that israel is the quote ally that is the junior partner in this campaign if trump calls it quits israel will as well not necessarily in lebanon but certainly when it comes to iran and if trump continues the israelis will continue as well with military parity military partnership it's worth remembering the iranians iranians as some of their terms for a ceasefire have been a comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts that's a reference to lebanon to their ally hezbollah that israel really is trying to diminish militarily as much as possible including with an invasion of lebanon israel will try to pursue that so it could be that if there is a discussion of ceasefire terms the israelis are saying mister president will accept it but we need to keep fighting in lebanon at least there we can achieve material gains for a threat that's really on our border literally within touching distance in the past across a very close fence the border fence between israel and lebanon so those would be the israeli conditions but if the war is called off vis a vis iran you can imagine that israel would fall into line very

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quickly with that what was the weekend

[Tim Stankavich]

like i feel like i'm going backwards but what was the weekend like for you in israel it was actually a

[Dan Williams]

holiday weekend here it was the jewish holiday of passover there is a number of days between the opening days the closing days of passover the festival ends tomorrow evening much of the country was shut down for that however no vacations no school holidays no school camps and in fact the main feast of the passover holiday was held by many people inside bomb shelters and very close to bomb shelters given the number of sirens just today there were six missile launches by iran at israel people have gotten used to scrambling for shelter including in the middle of the night that includes the town where i live you get used to it the country is pretty used to this this is the tail end of a two year and six or seven month war that began in gaza a war that really sees iran as having orchestrated from the top on several fronts so i think iranians see this war with iran as a necessary cresting and they hope a necessary conclusion of that regional war

[Tim Stankavich]

thirty seconds before we leave you have we created an enemy that's even a bigger enemy in

[Dan Williams]

iran well there's some talk of the new supreme leader being more radical than his father there is some talk of iran coming out of this war and deciding to push ahead with a nuclear program with a nuclearization program to a bomb that it always denied wanting officially but is widely suspected to have been pursuing slowly again at the end of the day there's means and there's motivation even if the motivation increases as a result of this war the question is whether they have the means to make it real if you listen to the israelis and the us tell it and if you watch the bombings going on in iran and the decapitation of iranian leaders it would appear that they've not only been denied the means they've been denied the means for years and perhaps for decades hence all right going to

[Tim Stankavich]

leave it there hey listen long day for you we know and in a stressful situation dan thank you so much dan williams bloomberg news middle east reporter joining us from jerusalem stay with us

[Carol Massar]

more from bloomberg businessweek daily coming up after this

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[Carol Massar]

youtube president trump signaled that an escalation in strikes on iran could come as soon as tuesday heightened fears that imminent military action will derail tentative progress toward restoring energy flows through the strait of hormuz here's president trump just this afternoon in a briefing to reporters they want

[Alex Vatanka]

us to keep bombing even if it jeopardized because their life is in much greater danger they want freedom for iran but it's very hard for them to to protest i actually tell him i said don't go out i fully understand

[Carol Massar]

that was president trump just a little earlier from the white house press briefing room back with us alex vatanka senior fellow at the middle east institute he specializes in iran he's a senior fellow in middle east studies at the us air force special operations school he teaches over at right pat air force base he's the author of several books including the battle of the ayatollahs in iran the united states foreign policy and political rivalry since nineteen seventy nine alex always good to have you on the program look is the president right i just i want to go back to the to what we just played he said they want us to keep bombing even if it jeopardizes because their life is in much greater danger is that true

[Alex Vatanka]

tim carroll it's great to be back with you look i think there's an element of truth in that i think that has been true from the beginning but i would say it was that feeling was much more intense five weeks ago when this war began where a lot of iranians a clear majority of iranians probably had this hope and it was just a hope because they weren't sure exactly how it's going to play out but the hope was the united states this mighty superpower is going to intervene and islamic republic will be poof gone and we can go back to our lives just like things were before nineteen seventy nine but as this war has sort of dragged on and more civilian infrastructure have been hit and more iranian civilians have died i'm not sure if what the president said is as black and white today was five weeks ago for sure a lot of iranians are still hoping at the end of this war the islamic republic will be gone the big question they have is will there be much of an iran the country left by the time the soviet war is over yeah that is

[Tim Stankavich]

actually i mean that speaks to then further military action to wipe everything out and do you think at this point that that's the goal of the united states states and israel for that matter after we just have spent the last couple of years watching what has happened to the gaza strip and palestinians between the war between israel and gaza yeah

[Alex Vatanka]

so carol i mean that's exactly how people in the region look at it look i need to make a big distinction israel and the united states are two different countries two different approaches to the region obviously you know they're also sit in different parts of the world israel is in the region the united states is across the world so that's why also so they look at things differently the israelis have had and continue to have a position where they rather have weak states nearby they don't care what nature politics you have as long as you're weak and you don't pose a threat united states not so united states i think fundamentally would like to see iran a country of ninety three million people huge market huge hungry market that's been ostracized because of its own policies for almost a half a century that could come back where this market could open up opportunities for plenty of businesses in all sorts of sectors from aviation oil gas tourism you name it so the idea that iran collapsing is not in the interest of the united states but the problem you have right now is how much at all united states can actually kind of bring this regime either down or change its ways so you don't end up collapsing the country if you will that's where the president is at right now so is

[Carol Massar]

the threat to take out civilian infrastructure a real threat and the reason i ask is because there was this great interview earlier on bloomberg surveillance gothama kunda of yale he's also a bloomberg opinion columnist and he made this great point he said you know if you take out civilian infrastructure then it just increases the desire to hold onto the strait of hormuz as a leverage point

[Tim Stankavich]

if

[Carol Massar]

you can yeah if you can yeah

[Alex Vatanka]

i mean look i mean it doesn't take much to scare captains away i mean you don't have to hit every single tanker to put a big dent in the flow of traffic and these drones are not that expensive and iran have tens of thousands of them and the country's pretty big you can fly a drone up from a no point in iran and even if you occupy sudden iran the iranians can still fly off drones from northern iran and and i'm not saying they're going to stop all traffic but it can still pose a serious risk to it but the strait of hormuz being leverage point for the iranians absolutely that's true and probably will be true until there's a political settlement but the other thing that we have to keep in mind and this is really important for us to keep in mind i'm sure the president is very conscious of this the iranians will hit in kind if you take out their power system a power grid and so on they are going to do the same thing to us allies on the other side of the persian gulf places like saudi arabia united arab emirates and even if the united states is not necessarily going to be directly impacted it will have an impact on the united states there are so many american companies that operate in that part of the world there are hundreds of billions of dollars in investment and so forth so this idea that we can just hit them but if the iranians hit the gulf arab states who cares well i think the united states will feel the impact and obviously the gulf states to the extent that they can i'm sure trying to be busy and shape trump administration's next steps here because they know they're going to be frontline states and the first targets yeah you do

[Tim Stankavich]

wonder about the threshold of pain among the middle eastern allies of the united states if we're getting close to that as you continue to see destruction there having said that i want to go back to how you kick things off that israel wants weaker states nearby by including iran us would like to see maybe a new iran i mean that's a big conflict between the two whose war is this

[Alex Vatanka]

look we all know the discussion here united states the last five weeks how you know the discussion about how the president was convinced to do this but that's kind of late in the day now to but isn't

[Tim Stankavich]

that a problem then in terms of getting yourself out of it

[Alex Vatanka]

look if the israelis insist on regime change in the sense entirely new set of people that run the place then i could see the united states president having a problem with that because his goals potentially he's setting the bar far lower than that i mean he's essentially talking about potentially the venezuela model which is someone from within this existing regiment who's willing to cut a deal that's good enough for the united states i'm not sure if that's good enough for israel and that could become a point of contention but carol end of the day israel cannot be in this war with iran alone everyone knows that the israelis would admit to that publicly they're only in this war because the united states is backing them up and so it doesn't really matter what israel feels like on that issue if the united states feels for its interest it's time to get out and cut a deal then israel has no reason or no ability really in the longer term to stay in that war alone again against the iranians

[Carol Massar]

alex we've spoken to you quite a bit over the last five weeks about different elements of this conflict including the government and what is left of the government the irgc and i want to go back to the irgc and sort of like what you've been able to gather based on public disclosures just based on your own sources about the strength of the irgc right now what what would you say the status is look

[Alex Vatanka]

they're running the show today more so

[Carol Massar]

than did before this war more so

[Alex Vatanka]

more so but it's a mistake to assume that irgc came from nowhere and suddenly is running the place i would say irgc has been sort of gradually becoming a bigger deep state actor in iran for at least twenty years but they just have that much more power after khamenei was assassinated on twentieth of february but i also think it's a mistake to assume just because irgc people are more in the driver's seat today than before that means a hardening of their position i have no reason to doubt that they are ideologically committed but i would also say and this is an important point in many ways they're not suicidal in the sense that they might be fanatics from our perspective but they also want to live for another day so the question then is can there be a middle ground between the us position the iranian position so these guys survive and a lot of people obviously going to hate that including majority of iranians we're hoping this regime will go as a result of to this war but i don't know if the united states still ready for that regime change scenario we heard some things being said by president trump in his press conference talking about you know he was walking back some of his comments from last week he upset a lot of iranians talking about putting iran back in the stone age he was walking that back but he still hasn't articulated a clear cut you know regime change policy going forward because obviously that's a major

[Carol Massar]

on the table so to that point alex what happens if tomorrow night at eight pm passes and there's no agreement from iran and the president doesn't follow through with bombing these civilian targets what

[Alex Vatanka]

happens then well look the president has already kind of hinted at this counter proposal came from iran there's ten points that the pakistanis brought back to the united states he said it's not good enough but it's significant that could give him enough room here for him to say well for now i'm holding back he's done that repeatedly so he could do that but you if if otherwise we're going to stay in this war of attrition for some time not necessarily sure if that's a good thing for the united states the iranians regime is better placed to engage in a war of attrition than the united states so i hope if diplomacy is the way forward that there'll be a big push big jolt to this so you get something going forward on the diplomatic track that's actually meaningful will put an end to this global economy being taken hostage

[Tim Stankavich]

by this conflict alex though what does this do for i just think you know the ability for a nation an entity a country the us or israel for that matter to wage war on another like i just think whether or not you know breaking of international law and so it's just you think about the us right typically we would need congress or it needs to be a threat iran and we know that iran and the us have not been good for decades but i'm just curious about what is going on and the actions taken by the us specifically in israel

[Alex Vatanka]

you know carol i think if this was any other political system of the islamic republic it would have been much harder for the united states to get away with this the fact that this is such a horrendous regime with so much blood on its hands including killing tens of thousands of iranians just recently in january kind of gave the us that kind of space where he could attack essentially essentially i mean based on international law and you don't have to take my word for it that's what jurists out there around the world are saying to attack another country without really an imminent threat being posed by iran even though you don't like the regime going back to khomeini in seventy nine there was no imminent threat and i don't care what the president keeps saying about there was one there is no evidence there was one but the fact that he gets away with it and the rest of the world pretty much is accepting it is because of the nature of the islamic republic because this is such a horrendous system to its own people and has been such a bad actor for so long but i can tell you carol talking to folks in europe in the middle east and elsewhere yeah there are question marks about you know what does this mean for

[Tim Stankavich]

international law going forward interesting times difficult times no doubt about it alex fatalka thank you so much senior fellow at the middle east institute specializing in iran

[Carol Massar]

stay with us more from bloomberg businessweek daily coming up after this

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[IBM Representative]

for business it may not automatically fit the way your business works at ibm we've seen this firsthand but by embedding ai across hr it and procurement processes we've reduced costs by millions slash repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work now we're helping companies get smarter by putting ai where it actually pays off deep in the work that moves the business let's create smarter business

[Podcast Host]

ibm you're listening to the bloomberg business week daily podcast catch us live weekday afternoon from two to five pm eastern listen on apple carplay and android auto with the bloomberg business app or watch us live on youtube we got to

[Carol Massar]

talk energy because the president reiterated that iran has until eight pm new york time this is on tuesday to agree to a deal or he would order intensified attacks on civilian infrastructure removed that could be considered a war crime under the geneva convention yeah it's something that

[Tim Stankavich]

certainly we've heard from various officials around the globe talking about and uncomfortable with reopening the strait of hormuz to free traffic of oil and everything is necessary necessary for an end to us hostilities having said that we have talked about when it comes to iran that is their key leverage in terms of controlling that strait and really bringing kind of the world to its knees so there's a lot riding on both sides here

[Carol Massar]

yeah we wanted to have a conversation about energy infrastructure and will kubzanski is the perfect guy to do it he's bloomberg news refined products reporter he joins us here in the bloomberg interactive brokers studio so some areas of energy infrastructure in the middle east have have been under attack over the last five weeks including in iran outside of iran neighboring countries as well what infrastructure have seen the most attacks so far how intense is the damage what do we know

[Will Kubzanski]

yeah so there's been a lot of attacks across the energy complex across the oil complex refineries are a pretty key area for that so we saw rasta nura saudi arabia's largest refinery get hit early on in the war we saw a refinery in kuwait just last weekend that does both fuel and petrochemicals get hit the united arab emirates they had a massive pet chems facility get hit over the weekend i mean all of

[Tim Stankavich]

this sounds pretty serious and so i'm just curious any of this symbolic targets or no this is serious you're talking about operations that are crucial to those entities and that are going to impact global markets and aren't an easy rebuild

[Will Kubzanski]

yeah i mean the extent of the damage right we'll find out more as time goes on long term versus short term you just need a little more time to assess but but absolutely critical for global markets the number one story obviously in energy right now is that the strait of hormuz is closed that's pretty close to a nightmare scenario but adding onto that these are large producers of fuels and petrochemicals and natural gas that the world needs a lot well

[Tim Stankavich]

and i will say will one of the stats that tim and i keep throwing out there we did a lot last week is what's going on in qatar right about thirty percent of their lng production is out and folks are saying that's going to take three to five years to get that out up so already you know that we're going to be dealing with that for not just when the war ends but longer

[Carol Massar]

well i think carol you bring up a really good point and that's the question of what happens if things actually

[Tim Stankavich]

escalate yeah you know being silly as we are sometimes you know just looking at something like polymarket about when this war oh yeah good point there are just like these different points throughout april going all the way to april thirtieth and so we just was it past

[Carol Massar]

april thirtieth okay we had stuff going into the summer well i think it was end of june and then we

[Tim Stankavich]

also had guests talking about the end of june so you think about the longer this goes on especially if there's a tax back and forth the impact could be even greater yeah the duration

[Will Kubzanski]

of the of the war and of the conflict i think is an open question at this point obviously a lot of opinions out there i would say that yeah the longer it goes the more challenging it gets to restart things right oil field shut ins are problem refinery restarts are a problem so yeah the duration here is becoming a pretty

[Carol Massar]

key question so let's talk other other infrastructure here here if we think about what has come under attention over the last few weeks on polymarket it goes

[Commercial Announcer]

all the way through december wow okay

[Tim Stankavich]

but again things change quickly things change quickly okay sorry that's okay go ahead

[Carol Massar]

so if we think about the different different ports of ports and parts of infrastructure that have been under attention or at our attention over the last few months few weeks i should say saudi arabia's east west pipeline this has been you know this is like the plan for if the strait of hormuz does close we can you know use the east west pipeline and we saw what millions of barrels a day that are flowing flowing through that but that could be at risk if the war if there's escalation yeah i think any and

[Will Kubzanski]

all infrastructure is a question right now yanbu the port where sort of that pipeline ends and goes into the red sea that's been attacked before in this war it could be attacked again the red sea itself right the houthis have largely stayed away from attacking vessels in the red sea that's something that could change that would really send a shock through i think sort of how people are thinking about the safety of shipping outside of the strait of hormuz other ports you know outside of the strait as well have been attacked before so yeah a lot of ways that this could get more serious yeah i mean

[Tim Stankavich]

pick your points i mean there's just a great kind of right through on gas facilities oil fields nuclear plants in iran a projectile striking the grounds of the bushehr nuclear power plant that was in late march according to their news agency there what are you hearing from sources in the energy market and their viewers view on kind of the impact and how long this goes on i

[Will Kubzanski]

have been asking people about this today and everyone is sort of in the same place which is they're flying blind and they're hoping they know more soon there's some sentiment that you know this is going to escalate further there's some sentiment that surely this can't go on this long because doing this for you know more than a few months would be an economic catastrophe so people are confused out there and i think would love to know what's going on lots of of eyes as there are everywhere else i think on what's going to happen in the next sort of twenty four forty eight hours well let's talk

[Carol Massar]

prices here because prices it's not just it doesn't just mean that we pay more for stuff there are real implications of this especially around the world i mean in some cases there's governments coming out and saying okay like in japan we're going to subsidize gas for japanese consumers so you know minimize the impact there but then you have the whole fiscal stuff scenario and what happens there in other parts of the world they're they're saying okay well you know only drive on if your license plate ends with with you know an even or an odd letter or a certain number what can you tell us about the the read through effects of the straight of hormuz being closed for an extended period of time on on the areas that you cover which include refined products

[Will Kubzanski]

yeah petrochemicals which sort of fits between refined products and elsewhere in the barrel of oil but that's having a massive effect right now supplies are tight i wrote an article i think last week about how japan is suddenly importing a lot of naphtha which is a feedstock for petrochemicals over there from the us they typically don't do that south korea i think is struggling with its own naphtha supplies so that's one element the us broadly speaking is good at making gasoline jet fuel is a pretty severe situation in asia and in europe and increasingly in the us so yeah a lot of questions about that right now

[Tim Stankavich]

well what is it going to mean for us oil production we know this was a president who came back to the white house talking about drill baby drill i'm just curious what you are hearing about what that will be the impact on the us energy industry in terms of drilling just got about thirty

[Will Kubzanski]

seconds it's a good question i think like everyone else energy producers would love a little certain you know i can't say i'm talking to folks who are drilling wells right now but i think we're you know look sustained high oil prices are a good way to incentivize oil production but there's a lot more questions or many more questions that go

[Tim Stankavich]

into production people have seen higher prices before only to see them you know to ramp up and then see them go down and then they're kind of

[Carol Massar]

stuck and what do they say the cure for high prices is high prices

[Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson]

exactly exactly i'm sure will's heard that

[Tim Stankavich]

before just a few times right once or twice all right well thanks so much will kubzansky he is bloomberg news refined products reporter joining us right here here in studio stay with us more

[Carol Massar]

from bloomberg business week daily coming up after this

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[IBM Representative]

the thing about ai for business it may not automatically fit the way your business works at ibm we've seen this firsthand but by embedding ai across hr it and procurement processes we've reduced costs by millions slashed repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work now we're helping companies get smarter by putting ai where it actually pays off deep in the work that moves the business let's create smarter business ibm you're listening

[Podcast Host]

to the bloomberg businessweek daily podcast catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm eastern listen on apple carplay and android auto with the bloomberg business app or watch us live on youtube

[Tim Stankavich]

yeah it's kind of a market that i feel like very little direction in general although a little bit of a risk on if you will slant we're just up about twenty points on the s and p five hundred up three ten of a percentage point nasdaq one hundred again just shy of a half a percentage point up one hundred thirteen points you move it on over to the s and p and we continue to see more gainers than decliners about three hundred twelve to the upside one hundred eighty nine to the downside long holiday weekend maybe there's some people off today also just trying to make sense out of the eighty minute press conference that we just got from donald trump

[Carol Massar]

president this is why i don't trade stocks or play with money because this whole weekend i'm thinking well look at the what we learned about iranian firepower which we're going to talk about with wayne sanders yeah we are two planes that went down and you know we got more details about that and what

[Tim Stankavich]

we have a lot of details yeah

[Carol Massar]

we got a lot of details about that from the chairman joint chiefs of staff and also the head of the cia earlier but i thought oh well in that case we're going to see stocks move a different way on monday we'll see oil higher hasn't played out but look that's neither here nor there i want to know what nanette abu hoff jacobson she's got to figure it out exactly we don't have to figure it out we just get to ask the question she's global investment strategist at hartford funds the firm has about one hundred fifty four billion dollars in assets under management is the market saying that the president is not going to follow through with these threats to take out civilian infrastructure in iran i think that

[Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson]

the market lacks conviction and we're really constantly weighing rhetoric versus reality and the reality is that regardless of what the president says we know an awful lot of damage has been done oil prices are elevated disruptions will occur and there are going to be second round effects of higher oil prices so markets have corrected a good deal multiples are down interest rates are up so there has been quite a bit priced in in but ultimately the market is optimistic yeah

[Carol Massar]

it does seem optimistic well i'm taking

[Tim Stankavich]

a look at the major industry groups in the s and p five hundred there are eleven so energy no surprise to see some outperformance there up thirty three percent materials are up ten percent but a lot of it has to do with disruption of supply chains and obviously energy plays into a lot of the material side of the equation but at the bottom of the pack consumer discretionary down more than nine percent financials which we'll get a good read on the bank shortly they're down about nine information technology is down about seven and a quarter percent health care which has been a pretty decent play down almost six percent on the year nanette how do you start to think about in terms of portfolio management where you start to make some shifts based on trends that may actually stick around a little

[Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson]

bit longer yeah i think that it's really important to have a longer term time frame you know so that you're not trading the headlines because that will absolutely cause you we whiplash so do you look through this you look through a lot of it and you think about diversifying your portfolio but not in the traditional way so fixed income has been the ballast for portfolios we actually think that yields are pretty attractive right now and so if you're looking for income you know in corporate bonds and high yield you can get around five percent or even up to six six and a half percent and even though you'd think inflation is the bane of fixed income you know there are still a lot of non economic buyers of fixed income so that's one thing commodities need to be part of your portfolio for the long term isn't it amazing

[Tim Stankavich]

i just feel like how many years we've spent talking about high tech and ai and i'm not saying that that's going away but it's just fascinating on like critical minerals raw materials right but now we're talking about just basic things that are needed to make things and how all of a sudden that is a big story and there's that global supply chain grab and making sure that you've got access and that's the interesting

[Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson]

thing is that the traditional defensive sectors like consumer staples health care they're not doing that well and you would think that in a very volatile environment they would be but consumer staples have organic growth issues they're not the big growers and even health care has issues with pricing and patents or drugs coming off of patents so i think that the market is now looking at different assets real assets infrastructure that's going to support the ai supply chain that is still a big story and so that's why we're shifting more toward real assets infrastructure and things that are taking advantage of what's going to be a very long

[Carol Massar]

term cycle what are you selling to get to free up the cash sure

[Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson]

well right now because of the proximity of europe and the sensitivity of europe to high oil prices we are underweighting european equities and this is non consensus because everyone was one hundred ten percent into european assets the earnings picture even before the computer conflict didn't look that great so what we're recommending right now is us equities and kind of a barbell with emerging market equities which is also non consensus and emerging markets equities you know everyone is writing it off because asia is so sensitive to higher oil prices but they're also very sensitive

[Tim Stankavich]

to the ai cycle what emerging markets

[Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson]

specifically well we like asia we like asia as a whole emerging markets asia yeah there are differences from one region to the other but india china korea taiwan all those areas we think look positive and the emerge the earnings outlook for all these regions is really positive

[Carol Massar]

so you're not thinking that crude prices are going to come down like a rock if this if the strait of hormuz opens i don't think so or

[Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson]

when it opens i don't think so why not because it's going to take months to rebuild infrastructure there's been so much disruption and the kind of guarantees you need and the kind of military enforcement that you need assurance that you need to give shippers that they can travel safely so what does this what

[Carol Massar]

does all this do to the us consumer because you know these these ships

[Tim Stankavich]

these ships so glad you went there

[Carol Massar]

so slowly so it's like we're not actually seeing the oil like if the strait of hormuz were to open you know i saw somebody talking about this they're like you know what ten fifteen knots carol yeah yeah i mean that's slow right you're a seller it's fast for me okay so you're in the

[Tim Stankavich]

rowboat but you gotta move careful because you're those big tankers especially right yeah

[Carol Massar]

but it takes like they take a long time to get where they're going that oil you know once it's on that tanker takes a long time yeah

[Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson]

now you know us consumers and the united states is a net exporter of oil so we're not as dependent however oil goes into almost everything and you know fertilizer is the lifeline to food everything plastic comes from oil so this is going to have second round effects and we just haven't seen that yet it's going to take months to figure it out this is what i think

[Tim Stankavich]

about too is that we are the buyer of everything we are the buyer to the world and so energy that goes into everything whether it's actual product cost or transportation i mean we're going to be paying more for everything we're going to have to make choices we're going to have cutbacks and i just think about what that means in terms of global economic moment what that means in terms of us economic momentum are

[Commercial Announcer]

you worried at all about the us

[Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson]

economy thirty seconds yeah in thirty seconds i mean the employment data was great but the workforce is shrinking and that is really all you need to know even without any disruptions us economic growth is going to be constrained just by the fact that we have fewer workers so i think that's one pressure and the other thing is just we have to see how earnings come out if they stay where they are will be fine if they're layoffs watch the payroll reports watch dynamic labor report but i

[Tim Stankavich]

do worry about that shrinking labor force you want to grow an economy you need a growing workforce and you got to think about that that longer term nanette always enjoy it thank you nanette abu hoff she's abouhoff jacobson over at hartford funds joining us right here in

[Podcast Host]

studio this is the bloomberg businessweek daily podcast available on apple spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from two to five pm eastern on bloomberg dot com comma the iheartradio app tunein and the bloomberg business app you can also watch us live every weekday on youtube and always on the bloomberg terminal

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