Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Trump Denies Reports That He’s Planning Strikes on Venezuela
Date: October 31, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec

Episode Overview

This episode covers the latest rumors about potential U.S. military action in Venezuela—centered on former President Trump’s public denial of any such plans—and unpacks the ripple effects those rumors had on the global oil market. The episode also digs deep into energy markets, explores the latest drama with the Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery deal, analyzes tech earnings from “The Mag 7,” examines Amazon’s business strategy, and features an interview with Brooks Running’s CEO on tariffs, competition, and company culture.

1. U.S.-Venezuela Tensions and Oil Markets

(Starts ~02:49)

Key Guests:

• Dr. Ellen Wald (President, Transversal Consulting; Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; Author of "Saudi Inc.")

Key Discussion Points:

• Trump's Denial Causes Oil Price Movement:

  • Oil spiked when rumors of a U.S. strike emerged, but eased after Trump denied plans for military action.
    • “It doesn't seem like we're about to strike Venezuela, which I think was probably never really in the plans, mostly because, you know, we're not about to invade Venezuela.” — Dr. Ellen Wald (03:30)

• Venezuela’s Oil Exports and Sanctions:

  • Much of Venezuela’s oil operates under sanctions or the black market, primarily going to China and Iran.
  • While disruption is unlikely to hit the mainstream oil market immediately, the black market dynamic adds volatility.
    • “All the oil that it's selling is really all on this kind of black market... So, you know, the potential for any kind of disruption does impact the oil market.” — Wald (03:58)

• Global Supply & Demand Uncertainty:

  • Conflicting reports from OPEC and Western agencies: Some claim oversupply; others argue supply is tight.
    • “There is a lot of confusion about what exactly is going on with supply and demand... given how incredibly complex the oil market has become recently with all of this sanctioned oil going different places.” — Wald (04:59)
  • Broader economic uncertainty (post-pandemic, China growth) complicates market forecasting.

• U.S. Oil Production Hits Record High:

  • U.S. set to near 13.8M barrels/day in August. Projections had underestimated this leap.
    • “13.8 million barrels a day is an absolutely massive amount of oil… tells us that maybe, maybe it’s not peaking…” — Wald (07:05)

• China’s Role:

  • China’s demand remains strong, but it’s unclear if oil is being used or stockpiled.
  • Complexity is compounded by China’s purchases of sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
    • “It’s hard to get kind of a handle on what...China’s economic situation is, what they're producing there when we're not entirely sure where all that oil is going.” — Wald (08:35)

2. Netflix’s Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery

(Starts ~12:30)

Key Guest:

• Laura Martin (Senior Entertainment Internet Analyst, Needham & Co.)

Key Discussion Points:

• Netflix’s Strategic Acquisition Considerations:

  • Netflix is considering buying Warner’s studio and streaming assets, not its linear TV networks.
    • “Once you own the IP, you never have to pay to rent it again... Warner Brothers has some of the best IP in the deepest library of any studio.” — Martin (13:20)
  • There are internal disagreements within Netflix and skepticism about valuation.

• Competition and Regulatory Hurdles:

  • Comcast and Larry Ellison's group are seen as likely competitors for a Warner asset bid.
    • “Ellison’s are the only ones that can get this through regulatory in my opinion.” — Martin (14:52)

• Netflix’s Broader Strategy:

  • Exploring advertising, video games, influencer content, and physical pop-ups to maximize IP value.
    • “They’re doing a lot of things that are trying to maximize revenue from their IP.” — Martin (16:32)

• 10-for-1 Stock Split:

  • Netflix announced a stock split to make shares more accessible for retail investors.
    • “Super smart. This is a retail company and people should be able to give... Netflix shares.” — Martin (17:33)

3. “Mag 7” Tech Earnings and AI Capital Expenditure

(Starts ~18:08)

Key Discussion Points:

• Amazon and Meta Divergence:

  • Amazon excelled with strong revenue and efficient investment in AI infrastructure, while Meta took on financial leverage for future value that’s not yet clear.
    • “Together, the MAG7 will now spend $400 billion on generative AI infrastructure going up to $500 billion next year.” — Martin (18:25)
    • “Amazon is running a better business. Good for them. Go Amazon.” — Martin (19:15)

• Investment Risks:

  • Skepticism over Meta’s high capex and mission-driven messaging (“benefit the world”).
    • “Wall street investors should not be in the business of buying Meta shares to benefit the world. The Pope does that.” — Martin (20:25)

4. Amazon: Earnings, AWS Value, and Strategy

(Starts ~22:33)

Key Guest:

• Tom Forte (Managing Director & Senior Consumer Internet Analyst, Maxim Group)

Key Discussion Points:

• Strong Earnings Boost Target Price:

  • Amazon stock surged after outperforming in Q3. Price target raised based on improved profitability, especially thanks to AWS (Amazon Web Services).
    • “There actually could be some expansion in the multiple for Amazon, which is somewhat unique.” — Forte (23:19)

• AWS Spin-Off Debate:

  • Discussion on whether Amazon should spin off AWS; recognized value but concern over low-margin retail business if spun off.

• AI and Capital Expenditure:

  • Amazon’s $8B backing in Anthropic. Jassy’s leadership tied to focus on both revenue and margins—more so than Bezos.

• Retail’s Continuing Importance:

  • Amazon’s marketplace model insulates against tariffs/inflation better than rivals, as most sales are third-party.

• Future Pillars—Healthcare & Satellites:

  • Forte encouraged continual search for “trillion dollar” expansions, like healthcare (One Medical, Amazon Pharmacy) and Project Kuiper (satellite internet), though Starlink remains dominant.

    • Notable Quotes:
      • “If you were sitting down with Andy Jassy, what would you ask him?” — Massar (28:43)
      • “...the next pillar... He needs to continue to find large trillion-dollar market opportunities like health care.” — Forte (29:42)

5. Brooks Running: Tariffs, Innovation, and Culture

(Starts ~33:32)

Key Guest:

• Dan Sheridan (CEO, Brooks Running)

Key Discussion Points:

• Tariffs and Supply Chain:

  • Athletic shoe tariffs jumped from 20% to 40% with latest round; Brooks focused on supply-chain efficiency rather than major price hikes.
    • “Trade policy... is out of our control. We’re building agility and resiliency...” — Sheridan (36:41)
  • No current plans to manufacture in the U.S. until the materials supply chain and automation evolve.

• Brand Positioning Amid Competition:

  • Brooks focuses singularly on runners, using science and biomechanics as differentiators.
    • “We often say at Brooks that our sharp focus creates mass appeal to anyone that moves, but our North Star is runners...” — Sheridan (38:37)

• Demographic Trends:

  • Four generations now actively run; Gen Z started running earlier, boosting overall growth.
    • “Biggest market we’ve ever seen... a big running boom right now.” — Sheridan (41:08)

• Ownership by Berkshire Hathaway:

  • Allows for long-term planning, in contrast to rivals’ “13-week calendar.”
    • “I have the greatest job in sporting goods because of our ownership structure.” — Sheridan (42:05)
    • “We make decisions for the long haul.” — Sheridan (42:13)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Venezuela and Oil Markets:

  • “It doesn't seem like we're about to strike Venezuela... we're not about to invade.” — Dr. Ellen Wald (03:30)

• On Confusion in Oil Markets:

  • “There is a lot of confusion about what exactly is going on with supply and demand...” — Wald (04:59)

• On IP in Streaming:

  • “Once you own the IP, you never have to pay to rent it again.” — Laura Martin (13:20)

• On Tech Capex:

  • “MAG7 will now spend $400 billion on generative AI infrastructure going up to $500 billion next year.” — Martin (18:25)

• On Meta’s Spending:

  • “Wall street investors should not be in the business of buying Meta shares to benefit the world. The Pope does that.” — Martin (20:25)

• On Amazon’s Business Model:

  • “Amazon is running a better business. Good for them. Go Amazon.” — Martin (20:35)

• On Brooks and Long-Term Thinking:

  • “I have the greatest job in sporting goods because of our ownership structure.” — Dan Sheridan (42:05)
  • “We make decisions for the long haul.” — Sheridan (42:13)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 02:49: Dr. Ellen Wald on US-Venezuela tensions and oil market volatility
• 12:30: Laura Martin on Netflix’s potential Warner Bros. Discovery bid
• 18:08: Mag 7 tech earnings and capex (Martin)
• 22:33: Tom Forte on Amazon’s Q3 results and strategic outlook
• 33:32: Dan Sheridan (Brooks Running) on tariffs, supply chain, and innovation

Tone

The episode blends analytical rigor (on markets and earnings), straight-talking industry skepticism (on Netflix, Meta, and tech investment), and business optimism (from Brooks Running’s CEO), all in Bloomberg’s accessible, informative style. Host Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec keep the energy brisk, let expert guests speak candidly, and toss in relatable humor.

Summary prepared for listeners who want clear, actionable insights from Bloomberg’s coverage of global market movements, big tech news, and shifting consumer trends.