Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast

Episode: Trump-Epstein Ties Back in Spotlight as Fight in Congress Looms
Date: November 12, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec
Featured Guests: Jamie Tarabay (Bloomberg), Bob Michael (JP Morgan), Trisha Toliver (CAVA), Peter Atwater (Financial Insights)

Overview

This episode spotlights new revelations linking Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein, as congressional tensions rise over transparency and document releases. The reporting examines the content of recently released emails, the political maneuvers unfolding in Congress, and broader questions about the US economy, the evolving labor market, and the financial fragility among American consumers and businesses. Featured segments include an in-depth look at the K-shaped economic recovery and its impact on both affluent and struggling Americans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump-Epstein Emails: Congressional Release and Fallout

Timestamps: [01:31]–[07:41]

• Jamie Tarabay breaks down the newly released Epstein-related emails from 2011, including communications with Ghislaine Maxwell and author Michael Wolff.
  • One email highlighted that “the dog that hasn’t barked is Trump,” referring to Trump’s name being kept out of the spotlight despite allegations in Epstein’s orbit.
  • Michael Wolff and Epstein discuss leveraging their knowledge about Trump, possibly for media appearances tied to Trump’s presidential ambitions.
• Both Republicans and Democrats are releasing different sets of documents, with little explanation, as part of a broader tussle for narrative control.
• Democrats aim to force a House floor vote to release all Epstein-related files, with Rep. Adelita Grijalva playing a key swing role.
• The White House (Press Secretary Caroline Levitt) strongly pushes back, labeling the document releases as “selective leaks…to smear President Trump.” The referenced victim has “repeatedly said President Trump was not involved in any wrongdoing.”

Notable Quote:

• “One of the very early up in our story we say I want you to realize that that dog that hasn't barked is Trump without specifying, of course, that he was referring to the president.” – Jamie Tarabay [02:28]
• “Clearly they've been getting thousands and thousands and thousands of documents. And one side of the aisle is being very circumspect… the other side… deliberate about what they're sharing with everyone.” – Jamie Tarabay [03:31]
• “As long as everyone believes that there's something that's being hidden, those questions will remain.” – Jamie Tarabay [05:42]
• “The victim referenced in the emails had ‘repeatedly said President Trump was not involved in any wrongdoing whatsoever and couldn't have been friendlier to her in their limited interactions.’” – Caroline Levitt, White House (via Bob Michael) [07:55]

2. The US Economy: Fragility, Labor Market, and AI

Timestamps: [10:03]–[18:43]

• Bob Michael discusses with Carol and Tim the “squishy” state of the US economy, noting sluggishness against tariff headwinds, government shutdown impacts, and restrictive interest rates.
• There’s a disparity in spending, with high-income consumers maintaining big-ticket purchases, but most companies are in “pause mode” on hiring.
• Gregory Daco’s Three Pillars: The economy is increasingly dependent on (1) affluent consumers, (2) AI-fueled investment, and (3) asset price gains.
  • Concerns surface about what happens if these asset prices drop and affluent spending contracts.
• Upcoming relief “one big beautiful Bill Act” and the “genius act” may bring some stimulus, particularly to lower earners.
• Deregulation is anticipated under a potentially new administration, with financial services likely the first sector to see changes.
• 50-Year Mortgages: Trump reportedly considering, with the White House confirming they’re seriously looking into it.
  • “There's no such thing as a bad bond, just a bad price.” – Bob Michael [15:43]
• Artificial Intelligence: Seen as a double-edged sword, potentially boosting productivity, but risking widespread job losses.
  • The AI boom is compared to the dot-com era, but with genuine deep-pocketed companies and real use cases in supply chains, logistics, and pricing.
• Monetary Policy Outlook: Michael doesn’t see the “punch bowl” being removed (i.e., no major contraction of liquidity) anytime soon.
  • Changing of Fed leadership (Atlanta Fed president Bostic to retire; potential new appointments) signals shifting priorities between “draining liquidity” and supporting activity through easy monetary policy.

Notable Quotes:

• “It feels as though businesses and households are still struggling a little bit with tariffs and the ultimate impact to cost of goods… that's a headwind.” – Bob Michael [11:06]
• “If the AI spending boom ends up being a little bit of a bust… does all this start to come undone?” – Carol Massar [13:33]
• “It’s an exciting time to be in the markets, [and to] see the way policy makers are shifting around.” – Bob Michael [19:13]

3. CAVA’s CFO on Consumer Trends, Tariffs, and Growth

Timestamps: [21:54]–[31:47]

• Trisha Toliver, CAVA’s Chief Financial Officer, discusses the impact of government shutdowns on consumer spending, especially in the DC-area markets.
• CAVA is experiencing pressure from tariffs (a 20 basis point impact on food, beverage, and packaging costs), but the company is committed to minimal price increases through 2026.
• Encouragingly, lower-income markets are seeing higher same-store sales growth than more affluent areas, suggesting growing accessibility.
• New stores remain a major driver of capital expenditure, with plans to maintain or increase the rate of openings.
• Investments in kitchen technology are improving operations, staff experience, and customer satisfaction.
• Despite share price struggles, the focus remains on long-term strategy over short-term shareholder returns.
• Labor market challenges persist, but CAVA aims to stay in the top quartile of pay across geographies.

Notable Quotes:

• “The tariffs did have about a 20 basis impact on our food, beverage and packaging costs in the quarter and I expect those to continue into 2026 as well.” – Trisha Toliver [27:33]
• “Our new restaurants that are opening or have opened in 2025… are delivering average unit volumes above $3 million, which is above our chain average. That really underscores the power of the brand.” – Trisha Toliver [25:20]

4. The K-shaped Economy: Promise and Peril

Timestamps: [34:27]–[45:57]

• Peter Atwater analyzes widening economic divergence, having coined the “K-shaped” recovery dynamic post-COVID.
  • The top tier of earners have thrived amid asset price escalation and strong financial markets; the lower tier faces mounting pressure from inflation, child care, housing, and “stacked vulnerabilities.”
  • Downward mobility is now more likely than upward mobility: “There used to be a sense that there was a ladder… for those at the bottom, that ladder is gone.” – Peter Atwater [37:20]
• The broader economy is increasingly fragile, even for the affluent, due to the circular dependence of asset prices, AI growth, and luxury consumption.
• Social and political implications loom large as “those at the bottom are not looking for a handout, they're looking for a hand,” says Atwater. He cautions that rising vulnerability and rage at the bottom of the economic spectrum could become a force of destabilization if policymakers don’t act.
• Attempts to fix this require recognizing the deep, multidimensional inequalities (not just economic), and for policymakers to act collectively—“it is in the best interest of both political parties to address this.” – Peter Atwater [43:28]

Notable Quotes:

• “For those at the bottom, things have just continued to deteriorate and now [it’s] compounded by the cumulative effect of inflation... it feels mighty heavy.” – Peter Atwater [35:53]
• “We really don't have a single economy in America. We have two very distinct experiences.” – Peter Atwater [36:39]
• “They want job training. They want opportunities that allow them to move up… They don't want a government handout. They want their products sold.” – Peter Atwater [43:28]
• “I think those at the top ignore the impatience at the bottom. Time moves very slowly when you lack confidence.” – Peter Atwater [45:34]

Memorable Moments

• Political Theater Around Epstein Files [04:00–06:00]: Congressional “dueling document drops,” each party releasing incomplete files to shape the narrative.
• Economic Divergence Described as “K-Shaped” [35:53]: Atwater’s vivid description of “a handful of folks who feel invulnerable in a mounting sea of despair.”
• CAVA's Resilience [25:00–28:00]: Lower-income consumers show surprising strength in same-store sales, suggesting some shifts in consumption patterns.

Important Timestamps

• [01:31–07:41] – Deep dive into Trump-Epstein emails, congressional politics, and reactions
• [10:03–18:43] – US Economy: Tariffs, monetary policy, AI, and financial markets with Bob Michael
• [21:54–31:47] – CAVA’s CFO Trisha Toliver on consumer trends, inflation, and strategic outlook
• [34:27–45:57] – Peter Atwater’s K-shaped economy analysis, its social and political implications

Summary Tone

The tone throughout is analytical and cautious, especially regarding breaking political developments and the economic outlook. The hosts and guests emphasize measured skepticism, careful reporting, and concern about ongoing vulnerabilities that straddle both economics and politics.