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- [00:00]
Carol Massar
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Tim Stenovec
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Carol Massar
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Tim Stenovec
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Jessica Rosenworcel
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Carol Massar
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Jessica Rosenworcel
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Tim Stenovec
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David Gura
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Jeff Mason
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Carol Massar
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- [01:30]
David Gura
Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.
- [01:51]
Carol Massar
Attorney General Pam Bondi is leaving her post at the head of the U.S. justice Department and a tumultuous tenure as the nation's top law enforcement official after some high profile stumbling blocks in her efforts to carry out President Donald Trump's agenda. Now in a social media post today, earlier today, President Trump writing, pam Bondi is a great American patriot and a loyal friend who faithfully served as my Attorney General over the past year. We love Pam and she will be transitioning to a much needed and important new job in the private sector to be announced at a date in the near future and our Deputy Attorney General and a very talented and respected legal mind, Todd Blanch will step in to serve as Acting Attorney General. So again, President Trump putting this out a little bit earlier, she was viewed
- [02:35]
Tim Stenovec
as one of Trump's most loyal allies. She oversaw the unprecedented transformation of the Justice Department. Joining us now with what we need to know, Bloomberg News Washington and White House correspondent Jeff Mason in the Bloomberg News Washington, D.C. bureau. A quickly developing story, somebody who seemed very loyal to the president. Jeff, we cannot forget what she did in front of Congress just a few weeks ago. What was it that really caused the president to fire her?
- [03:03]
Jeff Mason
That's a spot on question and I'm the wrong guy to answer it. We're going to have to ask him that. And he didn't make that clear in his social media post. I do think it's fair to use the word fired, however, that's not the word he's using, but it's what it was. The attorney general doesn't just leave that job without the president saying, you're leaving that job. And so there clearly was some increased frustration on, on his part that she wasn't able to deliver on the things that he was asking her to do. I also think it's important to sort of put a framework around what the president sees as the Justice Department and the attorney general and what their role is. Most presidents view it as an independent agency. President Trump did not. He viewed it essentially as his personal lawyer. And right now he looks like he wants a new one.
- [03:54]
Carol Massar
You know, Jeff, I think so much about this president who understands, like him or not, everyone says he understands media and presentation, so on and so forth. And I do think about how so much of the administration seems camera ready. And so I do wonder how much of this is, you know, actually her ability or what she did on the job, or is it how she presented, whether it's before for committees up on Capitol Hill? I just think about that and contrast it with what we've seen perhaps of Pete Hegseth in some of those updates on the war.
- [04:29]
Jeff Mason
Yeah, I think you're right, Carol, that he cares a lot about presentation. This is a former reality television host who has brought a lot of those same demands, skills and sort of mind frameworks to the presidency. So, yeah, he likes that in a Cabinet official as well. That said, if you look at how Attorney General Bondi performed in Congress and the way that she bantered, if banter is even the right word with members of Congress. It was very combative and it was often done for the audience of one in the White House. So I'm not sure what he would criticize specifically about the way she came across because it was seemingly the way that he expected her to come across. Maybe that shifted. You know, that's certainly a possibility, but the evidence doesn't show that he's looking for someone who is less combative or someone who is less willing to do his bidding or what he asks of the Justice Department. And those are things that she did, but she didn't, she wasn't able to produce everything that he wanted. And you even saw at one point during the, over the last year a sort of a direct message to her over social media when she wasn't. And that was really unusual. So we, we know that there was some frustration there.
- [05:50]
Carol Massar
Okay, so what does we talked about Todd Blanche taking over.
- [05:56]
Tim Stenovec
What about Lee Zeldin or Lee Zelda? That's a name that's in banded about.
- [06:00]
Carol Massar
Right. So who do we think is going to lead it next?
- [06:04]
Jeff Mason
Well, that's the question. And both of those are possibilities. The president certainly has a comfort level with them, clearly with Todd Blanche, who is his former, one of his former personal attorneys. And that's going to be something that we'll be continuing to report on in the coming days. It depends, of course, on how long the president uses or takes to make that decision. But again, I wouldn't expect a major shift at the Justice Department. There will be a new head of the doj. But in the same way that at DHS after Secretary Noem's departure, the policies aren't changing. President Trump himself is not changing what he wants out of his two of those two cabinet agencies isn't changing. What he is getting is a new face.
- [06:49]
Tim Stenovec
How easy is it going to be for that new face to get approved?
- [06:53]
Jeff Mason
Good question. The president still has a majority, of course, in the Senate. That's where Cabinet members get confirmed. You know, I suspect that he willhe will probably do just fine with this. If he was looking for a new head of ice, that might be trickier, but I don't know. I would be speculating. But you know, as long as he continues to have Republican majorities in the Senate, which of course he will have at least through the end of this year, that's not too big of a problem.
- [07:26]
Tim Stenovec
Yeah. And I guess it was so easy for Mark Wayne Mullen, relatively speaking, to get through.
- [07:32]
Jeff Mason
Well, he's one of them, you know, and that's usually, it's usually easier to get confirmed if you are coming from Congress. And that worked in his favor.
- [07:40]
Carol Massar
Hey, Jeff, you going to be able to turn the ringer off and have a quiet weekend?
- [07:45]
James Crombie
No. Well said.
- [07:47]
Carol Massar
Well said. All right, Jeff Mason. Thank you. Bloomberg News Washington White House correspondent Joining us from our D.C. bureau. We're going to stay on this with us is Matthew Seligman Greyhawk Law founder, joining us from Big Sur. He has taught at Harvard Law School, academic appointments at Stanford and Cardozo practices, constitutional and appellate litigation, filed Supreme Court amicus briefs and written extensively on structural questions of law and government authority. So we thought perfect guest with all that's going on right now.
- [08:16]
Tim Stenovec
Hey, Matthew, good to have you with us. As Carol mentioned earlier, the president did say that Pam Bondi will transition to a much needed and important new job in the private sector. Will she be able to do that easily going into private practice? If she chooses to stay in law, Yes.
- [08:33]
Matthew Seligman
I don't think there's any question that she'll be able to find private employment. The question is what? Something that we've seen as members of the administration and other allies of President Trump, especially lawyers, as they leave their work for President Trump, whether that's voluntarily or not, their options are more limited than those coming out of prior administrations. An attorney general leaving any other administration, Republican or Democrat, would have their choice of any job. But I think it's fair to say that Attorney General, or now former Attorney General Bondi, will face substantially more limited options because the administration's lawyers are toxic to a wide range of law firms and private sector companies.
- [09:11]
Carol Massar
Hey, Matthew, I'm thinking too big time about who is the next US Attorney General and what might might be top of mind. How might you be looking at that?
- [09:20]
Matthew Seligman
Well, I think it's telling that Lee Zeldin's name is being floated right now when Todd Blanche is the acting attorney general. He's been in the Department of Justice since the beginning of this second term. He served President Trump in a private capacity during the criminal prosecutions of President Trump. And yet the obvious choice perhaps is not being floated as the next choice. The reason why I think that's telling is because Todd Blanche, who is a very good lawyer, is also not a TV personality. And something that we' across President Trump's first and second term is that what he wants out of his Cabinet officials is not only the execution of his policies and his priorities, but also a certain type of ability to present on TV and before Congress. And so he's looking for someone who will defend him on TV in a way that not everyone who's a good lawyer will.
- [10:08]
Carol Massar
But as our Jeff Bondi. Jeff Bondi, our Jeff Mason said about Pam Bondi, we all remember her going through her books in combative before committee members up on Capitol Hill. But having said that, that would have probably been what many would have said or what Jeff was kind of saying That a performance that President Trump would have agreed upon or would have maybe admired, that combative kind of back and forth. Do you think that's what the president's going to continue to look for, someone who's going to fight back?
- [10:40]
Matthew Seligman
I think that's, there's no question of that. I think he views him himself as a fighter and he wants fighters on his behalf. I think the reasons why he became frustrated with former Attorney General Bondi don't have to do with that, that performance in Congress. I think they go back earlier. You mentioned before the, the unintentional social media private message that became public and former Attorney General Bondi's various public missteps, primarily with respect to the Epstein files. And so I think those missteps are probably more what the president, the source of the president's frustration. He wanted an attorney general to make that problem go away, and she didn't.
- [11:20]
Carol Massar
So what do you think is, but
- [11:22]
Tim Stenovec
can anyone do that? What can anyone make that problem go? Well, that's not. And the reason I ask is because Trump views the attorney general as a different job than other presidents have viewed. But nobody, nobody's going to make that go away.
- [11:35]
Matthew Seligman
Matthew, that's exactly right. I think he was asking the impossible, especially once Congress passed a law mandating the release of those files. And that was a bipartisan law.
- [11:44]
Carol Massar
Right.
- [11:45]
Matthew Seligman
So I think he was asking the impossible of an attorney general who wasn't able to deliver. And so one question we'll have to look at is, as things go forward, when he asked the impossible of his next attorney general, whether he will fire the next attorney general as well.
- [11:58]
Carol Massar
So you don't think that all of a sudden we're going to see the Epstein files, more of them released?
- [12:03]
Matthew Seligman
Probably not. I think the reason why they haven't been released so far has to do with the administration's interests, as you said. You know, I think it's impossible to make that political problem go away, especially when it's dividing his own base.
- [12:16]
Carol Massar
One thing curious about too is, you know, so we've got this news on Pam Bondi out as Attorney General, U.S. attorney General. We had President Trump attending the discussion over the birthright citizenship issue before Supreme Court justices yesterday. Not the first time we've seen a president kind of watching what the Supreme Court does, but first time that we've seen it in the modern era. How are you looking at all of that? You are someone who studies the thinks about constitutional law in a big way.
- [12:45]
Matthew Seligman
Well, I think what we're seeing here is the natural timeline of the legal system responding to the Trump administration's aggressive actions. Whether you like him or dislike him, there's no question that he's exerted more executive authority than any prior administration.
- [12:58]
Carol Massar
But President Trump being there, how do you see that before Supreme Court justices listening?
- [13:03]
Matthew Seligman
Well, as you also mentioned, he's a reality TV host, and that is a moment made for television. You know, it's possible that he thought he might be able to intimidate the justices, but I can tell you that would never work, and it might even backfire. And so I think the fact that he decided to go was a political statement about his investment in the issue. And it's theatrical in a way that I think appeals to the president.
- [13:27]
Tim Stenovec
How do you view the Supreme Court, just based on what we heard yesterday, how do you view the Supreme Court ruling on that?
- [13:32]
Matthew Seligman
Well, I think it's quite likely that the Supreme Court is going to hold against the administration and that the executive order that purports to say that the children born in the United States to undocumented immigrant parents are not citizens. That's what the administration said. And there's been precedent on the books since the 19th century that says that that's not what the 14th amendment means, that everyone born in the United States, with the exception of very small categories like the children of ambassadors. Aside from that, you're an American citizen, and the president can't undo that by executive authority. I expect the Supreme Court will say exactly.
- [14:12]
Tim Stenovec
Hey, Matthew, before we let you go, you're joining us from beautiful Big Sur, California, on the Central coast right now. Have you seen the $10 gas? This is sort of like a big story nationally. The premium gas there at that one gas station has hit $10.
- [14:27]
Matthew Seligman
It's, it's remarkable. And I think that's another dimension that we're going to see increasingly. I mentioned that the sort of the legal bills are coming due where the administration took executive action, very aggressive executive action last year, and now the legal system is slowly starting to respond. And I think that's happening economically as well. You know, the president's tariff powers, for example, you know, he asserted these unlawful tariffs. And over time, there's an economic toll that builds up, and we're seeing that as well with his actions in the Middle east, that this war isn't going away as quickly as he thought it would, as he's promised it would. And we're starting to see the economic consequences, consequences of that. And after that, we'll see the political consequences.
- [15:08]
Carol Massar
Yeah, we had planned to really talk to you about one year anniversary of Liberation Day and more on terrorists. Maybe we'll have you come back at a moment because we do see of course the continuation of the White House to think about that certainly as a tool. Matthew, thank you so much. Matthew Seligman, Greyhawk Law Founder Stay with us.
- [15:26]
Tim Stenovec
More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily Coming up after this.
- [15:32]
Carol Massar
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Jessica Rosenworcel
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- [16:57]
David Gura
the news doesn't stop on the weekends.
- [16:59]
Carol Massar
Context changes constantly, and now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.
- [17:04]
David Gura
Hi, I'm David Gura. Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg this Weekend.
- [17:09]
Carol Massar
I'm Christina Raffini. We'll bring you the latest headlines, in depth analysis and big interviews, all the stories that hit home on your days off and I'm Lisa Mateo. Watch and listen to Bloomberg this Weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people and culture.
- [17:25]
David Gura
On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.
- [17:31]
Carol Massar
Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead. Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.
- [17:41]
David Gura
Watch us on Bloomberg Television, listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to
- [17:48]
Carol Massar
the podcast that's Bloomberg this Weekend Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7am Eastern. Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television Radio and wherever you get your podcasts.
- [18:04]
David Gura
You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [18:18]
Carol Massar
We are thinking a lot about the cost of war, the cost of tariffs, the impact of all of this on the US and really the global economy. This is Iran warned the president against a ground offensive and as the Islamic Republic will set a toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. We got this from the Iran deputy foreign minister in a quick interview with Sputnik. President Trump, though, remember last night. Right, Tim, pledging to continue the US War in Iran.
- [18:43]
Tim Stenovec
Yeah. Even as he looked ahead to when the war is over. Here's just a little bit of President Trump last night from the White House regarding his outlook for the conflict.
- [18:51]
Carol Massar
When this conflict is over, the strait will open up. Naturally. It'll just open up. Naturally.
- [18:57]
David Gura
They're going to want to able to
- [18:58]
Robert Tipp
sell oil because that's all they have
- [19:01]
Matthew Seligman
to try and rebuild.
- [19:02]
Carol Massar
It will resume the flowing and the gas prices will rapidly come back down.
- [19:09]
Tim Stenovec
That's President Trump last night from the White House. Meantime, the war continues, now more than one month old. We've got a great group joining us for all things on the macro and interest rates.
- [19:19]
Carol Massar
Let's get to it with Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest rate strategist alongside Robert Tipp, PJM Fixed Income Managing director, Chief Investment strategist and head of global bonds both in studio. We're just going to lock the doors, keep you here for 60 minutes. There's so much to talk about. Where do we begin? I think it's safe to say that I think investors in markets thought we were going to get something different from, from President Trump. Ira, let me start with you. What are we seeing in terms of the rates markets, what are we seeing in terms of financial markets from investors about where we're maybe going from here? The reality.
- [19:52]
Ira Jersey
Yeah. So, so I think we should talk a little bit about today because I think today is very interesting with West Te intermediate crude up and everyone's saying, oh look, the bond market's hardly moved. But then I dig into the details of this and I say, okay, the two year treasury yield on the everyday two year bond is only down one basis point. But then you look at the tips market and look what's going on in like five year tips and two year tips, those yields are down dramatically and typically those yields go down primarily when you worry about either growth or inflation being high. And guess what? We have both of those things today. So when you look at inflation expectation and what the market's pricing for inflation expectation, that's up 10 basis points today. Right. So you look at two year inflation swaps like they're, they're higher by, as I check my Bloomberg terminal Now by about 5 basis points today. But that's well off yesterday's low.
- [20:40]
Tim Stenovec
So Ira, is that not being reflected in the treasury market? Is it only be reflected in tips, what's going on?
- [20:46]
Ira Jersey
Yeah, so. Well that's my point. Right. You have this, you have this disconnect so. Well, I think in large part because the way the market is pricing this is, are pricing it through TIPS and inflation expectations as opposed to the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. Right. Because if the market was pricing for the Fed to be really hiking, going to hike interest rates anytime soon like the ECB we think is likely to do this coming month would be to, that would be to have higher yields. And that's not what's happening.
- [21:15]
Carol Massar
Robert, come on in on this because I think the thing we're thinking about is you know, with Treasuries, I mean the concern that at some point energy prices, higher energy prices, if they stick around around longer, that that ultimately can impact growth. And I'm just curious where you are because what I'm hearing from Ira is the potential for. Are we dare, you know, talking about stagflation again?
- [21:33]
Robert Tipp
Right, we're definitely talking about it. But the fact of the matter is, you know, I think we've learned a lot since COVID We had a huge increase in interest rates. Economy was pretty resilient in Silicon Valley. Bank economy was pretty resilient. Fast forward last year, you have this massive increase in tariffs, tremendous uncertainty. The economy is pretty resilient. So now we're looking at high energy crisis. Right. And they're up the curve is, is still in backwardation. So people are optimistic it's going to come down.
- [22:02]
Matthew Seligman
Right.
- [22:02]
Robert Tipp
But the fact of the matter is the economy showed a lot of resilience. So I think the, the market is, is looking at the Fed and saying, you know, they may not be able to cut rates, they're going to have to drag their feet on this. But it's not like other countries where you know, hikes are priced in. So that has a dual mandate. They're going to be very well considered in this. But I think the market is sensitive to that if we get minus 100,000 payrolls tomorrow, that'll be different. The market be looking at recession possibility.
- [22:33]
Carol Massar
Is that likely?
- [22:35]
Robert Tipp
I don't think so.
- [22:36]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Okay.
- [22:37]
Robert Tipp
You know, I don't think so because that's my point is the economy has been pretty resilient. Yeah. And I think frankly we've seen a lot of stability in long term interest rates markets, once they got to this four and a quarter level late 2022, they've been rangebound along around that level. So short term is tremendous amount of uncertainty. Longer term, the inflation expectations, things seem to be pretty stable.
- [22:57]
Tim Stenovec
Ira, do consumers have that, that cash to. To protect themselves from these higher energy prices? I spoke to Chime CEO earlier today on Bloomberg tv and Chime is a, is a company the average, you know, the typical person they deal with as a income of around $75,000. So it's certainly a part of the economy that is more affected by higher fuel prices. And he said fuel spending has risen 25% amid this war with Iran.
- [23:25]
Ira Jersey
Yeah. And certainly energy prices have. And obviously that's a pretty large part of the consumption basket. The way that I think about these higher gasoline prices, it's really a tax on the consumer. So if it acts like a tax on the consumer, then it will slow the economy. Now, you know, we talk about stagflation. We have to be a little bit careful on how we define that. Right. Because you could have a slower economy and not a recession.
- [23:45]
Jeff Mason
Right.
- [23:46]
Ira Jersey
And that's. And we've had a pretty robust economy. And I agree with Robert that, you know, the economy has been somewhat robust. But a lot of that robustness has come from two things. One is investment spending, things like AI and the like. And then the other is, you know, when you look at all of the jobs that have been created and actually two times the number of jobs have been that have been created in aggregate have come from one sector. And that's the health care sector.
- [24:10]
Matthew Seligman
Right.
- [24:10]
Ira Jersey
With a lot of people in home health care and the like. So the fact is, is that when you have a one sector economy, I think it is at risk, I'm a little bit more pessimistic maybe than Robert is on the US economy. But we don't have to have a recession. But you could have a significant enough slowdown that it certainly feels like that. Like think about 2015 when you had the exit of the energy investment boom. Or think about 1994. I always bring up that one because that's when I got out of grad school and I had A problem finding a job, but luckily my wife found a job and we were all good, but nonethele nonetheless. The, you know, if you do have a significant slowdown, it can feel similar to a recession, even if it never shows up in the actual numbers.
- [24:48]
Carol Massar
You know, Robert, what about you look at, you know, obviously the global bond market, but I do think about disconnects between what some other central banks might be doing, because this war certainly impacting Europe, Asia differently than it is the United States. We've talked about that a lot. So if we have disconnects in global central bank policies, which does happen, you know, it is still, we're all kind of connected. So I'm just curious of do we see parts of the world go into recession or significant slowdowns? Does it ultimately feed back to the United States in some way? People buy stuff from the U.S. they do business with the U.S. right.
- [25:22]
Robert Tipp
Right. Well, I think, you know, the United States ultimately is more of the world's customer. And so I think that, you know, the slowdown here will have more impact on other economies than their slowdown, which
- [25:33]
Carol Massar
we saw with the gfc.
- [25:34]
Robert Tipp
Yeah. Now, in terms of Europe, they are looking at possibly some rate hikes there. Yeah. And they may have a big. A bigger bite from the energy side or not. So far their gas prices are up, but it's been measured. We have to see what comes from the government on these things. You know, there's very little appetite out there for recessions. Is there going to be subsidization coming from the government in order to offset some of the costs there? But I think that, you know, the US is for better or worse, in some respects, more secure in terms of resources, in terms of geography, we will have more defense spending. Who knows, maybe we'll have some fiscal stimulus before we get to the elections. And so I think we're seeing some firmness in the dollar.
- [26:24]
Carol Massar
But you definitely sound much more optimistic. Like, I'm curious, Ira, because you are a little bit more pessimistic. Do you have a question for Robert? I guess you listen.
- [26:32]
Ira Jersey
Well, not really. I mean, the one question I would say is how do you invest some of this in the global fixing market?
- [26:37]
Tim Stenovec
Right.
- [26:38]
Ira Jersey
Because. Because like Carol said, you know, it's possible that the ECB is going to be increasing interest rates, whereas the Fed's probably on hold. Is there a curve trade or something to do between the US And Europe, say?
- [26:48]
Robert Tipp
Right. Well, I think that, you know, when I look at the markets more broadly, you know, look at cash, look at equities, look at bonds and what investors have been doing. Investors without changing their asset allocations have ended up with a tremendous amount of equities. So they have a lot of exposure to downside risk in the economy. Equity valuations are fairly full and I think that's a tougher call. Do you stay with that? An above average allocation to equities? When you look at cash, what we've seen is money fund balances in the United States have continued to go up. Cash balances for investors, for return seeking institutions and individuals appear to be kind of high. Bond allocations are low. So I think people are under allocated to fixed income and I think that's why we're seeing resilience in terms of long term yields.
- [27:41]
Tim Stenovec
Why do you think we see all that cash on the sidelines?
- [27:43]
Robert Tipp
Because cash has been a great performer. So if you think about it, since late 2022, the 10 year gets to four and a quarter, we're still at four and a quarter quarter. You've been all over the map in the price of a 10 year. You could have written cash all the way up to 530, down through 430. Now you're at 360 still. But thinking about should you go out on the curb and so on. But the risk adjust returns of cash have been phenomenal.
- [28:08]
Tim Stenovec
I was, sorry, I was under the impression that cash is trash.
- [28:10]
Jeff Mason
Ira.
- [28:11]
Ira Jersey
Well, the Sharpe ratio of cash has been quite good. Right. I think that's, that's Robert's point. And the other thing that I would note with, with all of the cash, you know, I talk to some, some of my colleagues in equities and they say, oh look, there's all this cash on the sideline that needs to be deployed in this case. I do agree with Robert that the people are underinvested to fixed income, right, to buy bonds in general. And, but it's cash on the sidelines that's in all these money funds and the like. They're not going into equities, right? This is instead of holding bank deposits that yield zero.
- [28:42]
Tim Stenovec
That's so interesting because I would, I would imagine, imagine that some of it is people who are saying, well to your point, that equities seem fully valued, so we'll have money in a money market fund or in some sort of bond fund and then when we see an opportunity in equities, we'll go there. But that's not the pattern.
- [28:56]
Robert Tipp
What we're seeing is money is going into bond funds, a lot of money is going to bond funds, money is going into Stock funds. But the amount of money going into money markets is almost equal to the sum total of those two. So apparently there's a lot of investable assets. It's piling up, up in those forms.
- [29:10]
Carol Massar
It continues to pile up. I feel like the last couple of years we keep saying when is it going to come in? But it just continues to grow.
- [29:16]
Robert Tipp
So for the most risk averse investors, the cash has been very competitive with treasury returns. But for more adventurous investors in fixed income, your high yield, your emerging market hard currency debt and even your, your corporate bonds over the last few years have done very well. So I think that's why, you know, there is overall support for the market it despite the tremendous short term uncertainty.
- [29:38]
Carol Massar
Robert, when it comes to global bonds though, where is the money going? And I'm curious, it's been interesting when you watch the dollar, which side under pressure Then we saw it move up certainly, you know, as of late I think about the impact on the emerging market world. So where have you guys been specifically global bond funds see money going in
- [29:54]
Robert Tipp
or out in terms of the flows, it looks to me like there's two offsetting kinds of flows that we have seen since the election in November. There's a big drop in the dollar, but the money is coming here. So what's going on? We're seeing for right by US Debt securities, buy US securities but the amount of money that's coming in is small relative to the total stock of US dollar assets held. So apparently people have been hedging the currency exposure of their US investment. But net net, where are they putting their money? It's still coming here and I think
- [30:31]
Ira Jersey
here's a reason for that. Right. When you look at where the flows are coming from, from foreigners into the US in terms of treasury bonds, corporates, equities and the like, it's foreign institutions have been selling treasury securities or at least running off their portfolios. But private institutions continue to pile in. Right. And those are the economic sensitive investors and the price sensitive investors. So those are, those are the ones, ones who are more likely to hedge their currency exposure. Central banks don't because that's not really their mandate. And also private investors, they buy 10 year treasuries, 30 year treasuries. Central banks don't do that. Central banks buy T bills two years, three years. They don't buy the long end. So, so they don't own a lot of market risk.
- [31:09]
Tim Stenovec
All right, so let's push this forward a few months and talk a little bit about Kevin Warsh and the economy that he inherits if he becomes Fed
- [31:17]
Carol Massar
chair, which is kind of interesting.
- [31:19]
Tim Stenovec
Is it, is it a win or is it if. Robert?
- [31:23]
Robert Tipp
I think it's, it's a, when, when is it okay. And I don't have a great call on that. You know, let's say this year. You know, I think, I think the more interesting part will be what does he do? I think what I'm supposed to say, what I'm supposed to think is he's going to come in, he's going to get the Vulcan mind meld on the committee and they're going to cut rates regardless of what's going on. But you know, we've seen this in the past and we've read of even
- [31:50]
Carol Massar
if it is ticking higher, that central
- [31:53]
Robert Tipp
bankers come in and they do the right thing when you're in the seat.
- [31:56]
Carol Massar
Yeah.
- [31:57]
Robert Tipp
And honestly, if the dollar is going up and that's getting inflation down and long rates kind of stay where they are because the inflation outlook is solid, maybe that's an acceptable opportunity for everybody, especially if you're putting your signature on the dollar bill.
- [32:11]
Carol Massar
What if it's after midterm and they go to the Democrats? Would it still, does that change? It just got about like 15 seconds.
- [32:18]
Robert Tipp
You know, I'm optimistic on the markets long term, but in terms of the, the picture for human beings and politics, it could just be increasingly chaotic.
- [32:28]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
All right, I told you, Prosper,
- [32:32]
Carol Massar
lock the doors. They're not going. IRA Jersey Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. interest Rate Strategist Robert Tip thank you. PJM Fixed Income Managing Director Chief Investor Investment Strategist Head of Global Bonds this
- [32:44]
David Gura
is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa. Play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [33:02]
Tim Stenovec
Shares of top asset managers sliding today. This after Blue Owl Capital said it will limit redemptions from two of its private credit funds after facing a surge in withdrawal requests. Just ahead of that Blue Owl news though, Apollo Global Management President Jim Zelter launched a full throated defense of private credit, downplaying investor concerns and describing recent developments in the asset class as quote, mere growing pains. He was on Bloomberg Surveillance. We've really lost the plot on credit. We're talking the headlines and the conversations are about this little narrow area of direct lending. 200 billion of the non traded BDCs. And why are we here in the first place? The reality is the last 15 years credit has compounded great returns for investors around the globe. And they've done it in a manner which out beats their beats the high yield and loan indexes dramatically. And so we're talking about a little bit of skirmish on the sidelines here. That was Apollo Global Management President Jim Zelter earlier on Bloomberg Blue Al shares, by the way, fell at one point today to their lows going back to 2022. They're now down around 66% from highs last January. For more we're joined by Olivia Fishlow, Bloomberg News Leverage Finance reporter, and James Crombie, Bloomberg News senior editor for credit. They both join us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Olivia, we're going to get to the Blue Owl story in a second. You've been so great in your reporting around that company company, but I want to start big picture, James, and just get your comments on what we heard from Jim Zelter. He said we're talking about a little bit of a, of a skirmish on the sidelines here. Is that correct? In your view, is that accurate?
- [34:35]
James Crombie
I mean, if you're one of the biggest participants in the market, that's what you have to say as Apollo, obviously he's going to support it. But I think it's more than just a skirmish. We've seen big outflows, redemptions from a lot of BDCs. We're now seeing outflows from funds that look at high yield bonds and high grade bonds as well. So you know, follow the money. Money's flowing out of credit, liquidity is coming out. There's also a ton of supply that's going in. So I think this is more than just a skirmish on the sidelines. I think it's a big repricing going on.
- [35:04]
Carol Massar
Wait, so Jim Seltzer attributing the reason private credit is in the headlines due to the hefty returns the asset class has generated for institutional investors. Is he right? Is he potentially from his perspective, James Right. Maybe their book is good and he's talking their book or is he because I think about the responsibility to investors in terms of what he says at some point, if he's not being totally transparent, that's a problem down the road.
- [35:36]
James Crombie
He was talking historical. So returns were good in historical terms. I don't think they're going to be good. There are going to be more defaults, more losses, more markdowns. There's going to be, you know, severe impairment in some of those portfolios. So the returns just aren't going to be there.
- [35:52]
Carol Massar
All right. So Olivia, come on in on Blue Owl and the latest on that because what investors were clamoring for that was a lot definitely.
- [35:59]
Olivia Fishlow
And I think to the point of returns. That's sort of what started the fears around BDC is we started to see returns come down as. As rates came down. And Blue, I was sort of at the forefront of that. In part because they've tapped the retail market so heavily and in part because they were one of the last firms to close their tender offer window. So the market was sort of waiting to see what would happen around this really BTC focused firm. And as you saw, the results were pretty staggering.
- [36:25]
Tim Stenovec
Yes. So take us to today. The imposing the caps after facing 41% and 22% requests to exit. Bring us up to speed on today's news.
- [36:32]
Olivia Fishlow
Definitely. So what Blue decided to do was impose a 5% cap on the funds. On both funds, which one had around 40% of investors try to get out. And I would say at this point,
- [36:42]
Carol Massar
half the fund were like, I'm out, I want to be out.
- [36:44]
Olivia Fishlow
Right. And so now what happens is every quarter they have the option to decide to try to get their shares out again. So they have to resubmit. And so I think we expect to see kind of a continued period of we don't really know how long where investors are trying to get out.
- [36:59]
Tim Stenovec
This is where James comes in and says this is all in the prospectus on the first page. Right.
- [37:03]
James Crombie
And Jim did mention that. Page one. Yeah.
- [37:05]
Tim Stenovec
So 5% cap people shouldn't be surprised here. What?
- [37:09]
James Crombie
They weren't paying attention. They weren't reading the small print, nor was. Nor a lot of investors during the good times of credit when they were just buying whatever and now that's backfiring on them.
- [37:18]
Carol Massar
But James, is there a secret sauce to Blue Owl in that, as you said, opening it up pretty aggressively to retail investors. So a different investment pool that maybe doesn't always read the. You know, I'm not taking their side, I'm just saying. But that also in terms of closing their fund kind of at the tail end of making the investment. So maybe the investments weren't the best in terms of choices. Are they kind of. Should they be put in a separate class because of their where they are in this?
- [37:47]
James Crombie
I think Olivia has written a lot about their tech focus, which is problematic, but I think all of the other BDCs are suffering and we saw one downgraded to jump junk last week. So you know, that wasn't a good sign either.
- [37:59]
Tim Stenovec
So what, what changed for Blue Owl, Olivia? Because this was a company that was so loved not only by markets but also by investors who wanted to invest in credit through Blue Owl. What was the tipping point here that really made it get to the headlines in a way that it wouldn't want to be?
- [38:17]
Olivia Fishlow
It's a good question. I think there were a few things that sort of happened at the same time which were really tough for the manager that the first being lowering returns in private credit. Sort of a conversation around retail accessing the asset class. But then of course I, I think was like a huge turning point because plural sort of made software their thing and you know, they were said they were really great at it and really focused on it and then no one really expected the impact or perceived impact of AI. And then finally when they first tried to, to merge one of their funds and give some liquidity, I think they obviously had to pull that merger, had a lot of issues there. So it was like they couldn't really stay out of the news. It felt like.
- [38:54]
Carol Massar
So you know, doesn't this go back to risk reward? Like that's investing and some things are more of a sure thing and some of them aren't. So again, I go back to what you said James, of like you have to read the prospectus. I can never say that word but I mean understand what you're investing in and understanding how liquid or not liquid it is. And so I'm just wondering like how are we thinking about. Because it feels like every day there's a drop of stories. So how are we starting to think about private credit? Is it just a case? Folks understand your rewards can be grand but so can your risks. Especially when it's focused on something like one particular sector, whether it's software or something else.
- [39:36]
Olivia Fishlow
And to be fair, I think there is something to be said about this particular structure, the semi liquid fund. It's sort of a test of that moment and I think we're still waiting to see if like private credit writ large. But I still think it's an important area to focus on because you talk
- [39:49]
Carol Massar
to private credit folks and I think about all the times we've been at Milken, it's like, listen, we're lending to a part of the market that can't access funds. So James, like is it good? Is it bad? Is it just. I don't know.
- [40:01]
James Crombie
Well, it's pretty boring actually. I mean middle, middle market boring. Middle market lending, sorry, I forgot about that choice. And you know, it's in the spotlight now but, but the impact. I think the BDC blow up is having and Jim Deltz described it as a sort of sideshow is 200 billion. It's relatively small. But I think it's creating caution across the board amongst direct lenders who, you know, a much bigger part of private credit. They are going to be tightening up. They are going to be asking for different pricing, different structure, more like big banks and things are talking about, yeah, the big shops that have, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars of exposure to direct loans to middle market companies. And you know, by the way, there are 200,000 middle market companies that employ 50 million Americans and they produce more than $10 trillion of GDP. So, you know, it's quite a big impact on the actual economy when we're talking about suddenly liquidity draining from that system.
- [40:53]
Olivia Fishlow
All right.
- [40:53]
Carol Massar
Every time I talk about private credit, I want that quote. I want that quote.
- [40:56]
Tim Stenovec
Okay. Well, you'll have to come back.
- [40:59]
Carol Massar
Yeah. Both of you, you guys like, like every time your stories, the whole sector, we're just kind of blown away.
- [41:04]
Tim Stenovec
Olivia Fishlow, Bloomberg News Leverage Finance Reporter James Gromby, Bloomberg News Senior Editor, Credit this is Bloomberg businessweek Daily. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.
- [41:20]
Jessica Rosenworcel
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- [42:23]
Carol Massar
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- [42:51]
David Gura
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [43:05]
Carol Massar
We often talk about the intersection of the business world, market world, money with so many different sectors of our world. And we often, you know, talk about how increasingly it has to do with health in particular. And I was just thinking about earlier, we're talking about equities and what has been kind of where you see job growth, you also often see equity outperformance. A lot of it has to do with health.
- [43:27]
Tim Stenovec
With us, Jessica Rosenwarcel, executive director of the MIT Media Lab, also former chair of the fcc, the Federal Communications Commission, the first woman to lead the FCC as permanent chair by President Biden. Previously she served as commissioner. That was back in 2012 after being nominated to two separate terms by President Obama and President Trump. She joins us from Boston. We're going to talk about health and we're going to talk about everything you've been working on recently. But I'm really curious, and we're both really curious about the shift of going from the FCC to the Media Lab and the new perspectives that you've gained by being there given the experience that you had working in the government.
- [44:04]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Well, thank you for having me. I like the intersection of technology and policy. And it was a treat when I was in Washington to try to come up with new ways to use technology to close the digital division divide. And now it's been really just awesome being here at the MIT Media Lab, which is a place that's been around for more than four decades and is really committed to thinking about what our digital future looks like and how to make sure that there's a role for humanity when we develop it.
- [44:32]
Tim Stenovec
So let's talk about this in the context of healthcare, because when you were at the FCC, you were known for working to preserve net neutrality. You were very interested, if I recall, in making sure that everybody had access to to broadband throughout the country. This idea of the homework gap as well, do you see the technological gap and the challenges that many Americans face? Do you see that similar when it comes to healthcare, or is it even more stark when it comes to access to healthcare?
- [45:00]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Well, I think there's a lot about technology now that leaves people wary. They can feel like they lose their agency and that big systems are making decisions and they don't have a voice. But at the same time, I look at a lot of those new technologies that are being developed, like wireless sensors and AI diagnostics, and I See lots of opportunity for us to improve healthcare. And there's a lot of work we can do to improve healthcare. So I think we've gotta seize it.
- [45:26]
Carol Massar
Jessica, let's go deeper into specifically for women. This is what we call our Business Week Women's Health segment. And we talk about often the gap when it comes to men versus women in either diagnosis and treatment and R and D dollars. It's slowly getting better, but there are still gaps. So I'm just curious, this intersection of technology, how that might help reduce that gap and really expand access to care for women specifically and women's issues.
- [45:55]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Yeah, you're so right. I mean, there's longstanding gaps when it comes to women's healthcare. For so many years they weren't included in critical studies. And then we've had just a fraction of the research dollars go towards women's health care issues compared to men's health care issues in this country. And it's made a real difference. We are not diagnosing women's health care problems the same way that we are for men. And if we close that gap, we're going to do some good work, not just for women's health care, but for our global economy. In fact, there are studies that show that as much as $1 trillion could be seen in economic growth globally by 2040. If we close the kinds of gaps you are talking about, there are so many ways that we are starting to see possibility and they all involve technology. I think in particular, we are going to see so much more use of wireless sensors. Because when we use wireless sensors with healthcare, we get so much more information, good quality data, continuous data, continuous continuous monitoring that can be used to improve diagnosis and healthcare. And that is one of those areas that I think is just poised to grow tremendously in the future.
- [47:05]
Tim Stenovec
I'm glad you brought that up because I think a lot of people who work in that space who are trying to create these devices and work in medical devices, they have thoughts about the regulatory process that it takes too long to get FDA clearance or FDA approval, whatever they're going for. You operate in this unique position because you were one of those folks who was considered a regulator at one point in your career. Is there room in the regulatory process there to make this easier so more people do ultimately get access to this technology?
- [47:38]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Yeah, I had a different kind of regulatory role in that. I oversaw communications networks, but I used to say that it was a three legged stool. We had to make sure that we got the regulations right to get wireless airwaves available. To those who could use them for these kind of technologies. And broadband, again for these kind of technologies. We also had to make sure that practitioners knew how to use them. Then the third leg would be making sure that insurance was set to reimburse these kind of technologies, because that's what also makes it really practical. We've got to have all three things. Regulation, familiarity among our practitioners, and insurance reimbursement working together. And if we do that, I think we can solve some of the healthcare gaps we know that we have today. And, you know, I think these things are possible. We've just got to work at them.
- [48:25]
Carol Massar
Yeah. We also have to have money, like flowing into it. Right. Investors, like, I hate to be so, like basic, but that old thing, Carol, easy here at Bloomberg, we kid, we laugh, but there's, you know, follow the money with anything. Right. That just tells the story. So what kind of money and interest. Interest do you see among investors? You guys are in this great place where there's this great intersection of all of it.
- [48:47]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
No, you're absolutely right. That's part of the equation. We were doing some work at the Media Lab. We have all of these different efforts underway. We've got folks working on ultrasound technology that would go in abroad to make it possible for early cancer warning without having to go to the doctor's office and get a mammography. That, that could be tremendous at scale. We've got work going on with affected computing and physiological signals, then trying to understand how that enforces our healthcare and things like sleep. We've also got work going on with bionic prosthetics that connect to our nervous systems. Now, the neat thing about the Media Lab is we are pre commercial, so we're not yet thinking about how you monetize all these things. What happens is the work we develop gets taken up by healthcare practitioners and research doctors who then put them into clinical trials. So we're the early stage for ideas here. But I think that's what makes me so optimistic and excited about what I get to see here every day.
- [49:45]
Carol Massar
We just actually did. I was just looking up, was it Bloomer Technology? Was it Bloomer Tech that we had?
- [49:49]
Tim Stenovec
Bloomer.
- [49:50]
Carol Massar
Bloomer, yeah.
- [49:50]
Tim Stenovec
Alicia Chong Rodriguez, the founder and CEO of Bloomer Tech.
- [49:53]
Carol Massar
Yeah, it was a smart bra, basically for heart health and for. And it was really kind of fascinating. They were in the testing phase.
- [50:01]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Yeah. There's so much that is going on right now with technology and healthcare. I just think there's so many more opportunities for customization. When you think about the data that we get from wireless technologies. There's also opportunities for customization that come from AI based diagnostics. And down the road, I think we're going to be doing more work with digital twins where we might develop models of unique organs and, and test them before we have real world intervention. All of these things are becoming possible. We're going to have to work to get them out into the real world with more clinical trials. And like you say, it will also take some money and funding.
- [50:36]
Tim Stenovec
So I just want to ask about the timeline for this stuff because when we talk about this stuff, I think a lot of people think it's pie in the sky ideas. But I mean, do you think we'll see this stuff in the next five years?
- [50:47]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Absolutely. You know, it was like 10 years ago, I was visiting villages and rural Alaska. They were demonstrating to me how they were using these refurbished echocardiogram machines to try to send images of heart disease off to doctors in specialty hospitals in Anchorage and Seattle because they didn't have those kind of practitioners in their backyard in a small village near the Arctic Circle. What I was seeing in a rural location was something that has now moved into mainstream medicine, which is this idea that we can connect and get expertise no matter where we are, and take measurement of where we are with our health in places that we've never been able to do that before. So I think we are moving from having technology be at the margins to being part of mainstream medicine. And I think what I saw years ago in that little village in Alaska sort of set off a light bulb for me, which said that we can do this here, we can do this everywhere.
- [51:42]
Carol Massar
Listen, Jessica, I'm listening to you. I think both Tim and I are, and we think about, we live in with a company where we can go everywhere and talk to all different kinds of voices and really respect the importance of content and media as a medium. And I am just curious whether it's dealing with health care issues and understanding what you're talking about. It's so important that correct content gets out there, but that there's freedom in content. Right. And I just wonder your view. As former chair of the fcc, I've got to ask you. I'd be an idiot not to.
- [52:19]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Yes. No, I think I saw this coming.
- [52:22]
Carol Massar
Your view on the use of the agencies, the current agencies powers to influence the content, whether it's late night TV or news coverage in general. For me, who's been doing this for 30 years, it makes me a little uncomfortable. A lot uncomfortable, to be fair.
- [52:36]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Yeah, that's fair. It makes me uncomfortable, too. During my last few weeks as chair of the Federal Communications Commission, I took a look at what was on deck and I found some petitions that involved content and coverage and behavior at abc, NBC, CBS and Fox. What I noticed is they came from the left, they came from the right, but every one of them wanted the government to step in and use its power to prevent free speech and so on. One of my last actions before I left the agency was I dismissed them all. And I did that because I don't think that the FCC should be the president's speech police. And I don't think that the FCC should be journalism's censor in chief.
- [53:20]
Tim Stenovec
What do you think about Brendan Carr, your former colleague, just very briefly, about his approval of the nexstar Tegna merger without a full commission vote?
- [53:31]
Jessica Rosenwarcel
Well, I think there are some challenges associated with that and the underlying law which limits the number of television households any one company can reach in this country to 39%. And I know that there are ongoing court cases involving that decision. So I think we'll all have to stay tuned.
- [53:50]
Carol Massar
And we're going to stay tuned to the work you're doing. Please, please come back. We would love to continue this conversation. We've talked with a lot of folks over there and it's just great to hear what you guys are doing. Jessica, thank you so much. Jessica Rosenworth Sil she is Executive Director of the MIT Media Lab, former chair of the fcc. As we stated, if you missed any of that conversation, be sure to check out our podcast feed.
- [54:12]
David Gura
This is the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.