Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Trump Says He’ll Visit China; Xi Presses US Leader on Taiwan
Date: November 25, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

Episode Overview

This episode offers an incisive look at recent geopolitical tensions and evolving trends in the global economy. Key topics include the judicial dismissal of high-profile legal cases, a surprise phone call and diplomatic exchange between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the ongoing complexity of US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks, and expert insights on the US economic outlook and the impact of AI on markets. The episode features expert commentary from Bloomberg’s Mike Shepard, economist Jennifer Lee, credit analyst Robert Shiffman, and investment advisor Leo Kelly.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Legal Setbacks for Trump Administration – Dismissal of Comey & James Cases

(02:18 – 04:16)

• Summary:
  A judge dismissed cases against former FBI Director James Comey and NY Attorney General Letitia James due to the prosecutor’s illegal appointment.
• Implications:
  • Though ruled firmly, this may not be the end as the Trump administration seeks new strategies to pursue similar cases, particularly using the Justice Department under Pam Bondi.
  • The White House and President Trump have not publicly commented.
• Quote:

  “We haven’t seen a Truth Social post and the president has not yet appeared in public yet... But we do get a sense from the Justice Department that they are disgruntled and unhappy about this finding.”
  — Tim Stenovec (03:37)

2. US–China Relations: Trump’s Upcoming Beijing Visit & Taiwan Tensions

(04:16 – 07:16)

• Summary:
  • President Trump announced a planned visit to Beijing in April 2026, reciprocated by an invitation for Xi Jinping to visit the US later in the year.
  • Trump emphasizes a “strong” US-China relationship, citing agreements on trade truce, increased Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and fentanyl controls.
  • Chinese state media sharply focused on Taiwan in their account of the leaders’ call, pressing the US to “back off” amid rising Japan-China tensions over Taiwan’s status.
• Contrast in Messaging:
  • Trump’s narrative avoids Taiwan, focusing on positive bilateral relations; China’s narrative is confrontational, prioritizing its sovereignty over Taiwan.
• Quote:

  “The message between the president’s readout ... and the official Chinese news agency’s version was pretty stark. Donald Trump really stressed that the call was very good...The Chinese were very direct [about Taiwan].”
  — Tim Stenovec (05:09)

3. Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks: Progress and Remaining Sticking Points

(07:16 – 09:16)

• Summary:
  • US-backed peace proposals are viewed skeptically by Ukraine and European allies, who feel the original plan favors Russian interests and was crafted with minimal consultation.
  • Main issues: proposed Ukrainian territorial concessions and weak security guarantees.
  • Revised proposal reduced from 28 to 19 points but progress is slow; German Chancellor Frederick Mears is “guardedly optimistic.”
• Quote:

  “European allies of Ukraine... have expressed concern that those provisions were not nearly strong enough and they needed to be discussed.”
  — Tim Stenovec (07:38)

4. Economic Outlook: US Data Post-Government Shutdown

(12:43 – 17:02)

• Guest: Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets
• Summary:
  • The recent US government shutdown delayed economic data; new reports will take time to reflect true conditions.
  • The Fed’s priority has shifted from inflation to the labor market, with expectations of more rate cuts if job market weakness persists.
• Quotes:

  “So far, I guess I could say that [the economy has] been pretty still steady, resilient if you will. But... the data are kind of old.”
  — Jennifer Lee (13:16)
  “Now I’m thinking that the Fed is probably rightfully focusing on the jobs front and will probably go for another 25 basis point cut on December 10th.”
  — Jennifer Lee (14:46)

5. AI Investment & Corporate Debt: The Oracle Case Study

(17:33 – 25:04)

• Guest: Robert Shiffman, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Tech Credit Analyst
• Summary:
  • Oracle’s significant debt to fund AI investments has spiked demand for credit default swaps on its bonds—typically a rare event for investment-grade names.
  • The current AI investment phase is capital-intensive with negative near-term cash flow, but analysts remain calm, viewing it as a long-term play.
• Quotes:

  “This whole AI trade… this is a 10 year trade. And right now we’re in a building phase, spending a lot of money without a lot of revenues coming in.”
  — Robert Shiffman (18:45)
  “Oracle’s free cash flow is going to be massively negative for the next few years… [but] there is no panic in our market.”
  — Robert Shiffman (23:11)

6. Is the AI Bubble Healthy? Lessons from Past Technology Booms

(28:54 – 36:07)

• Guest: Leo Kelly, Founder & CEO, Verdance Capital Advisors
• Summary:
  • The current “AI bubble” is likely to last years, with volatility and lessons akin to past tech disruptions like the dot-com boom.
  • The real transformative value will come in the future, as new applications (not just infrastructure) are developed—much like Google and Amazon did for the internet era.
  • Venture and private equity investment in applications and cyber defense are key present-day strategies.
• Quotes:

  “To burst a real bubble… that’s a process. That’s not an event. It takes time to break down the enthusiasm and optimism of investors.”
  — Leo Kelly (29:36)
  “The investment side will teach valuable lessons but it brings capital to the needed infrastructure development point. The real money making comes in the application of the infrastructure and we’re not there yet.”
  — Leo Kelly (32:01)
  “We think quite frankly where the AI application is going to come from doesn’t even exist today. … The companies that are going to build the applications to put on the infrastructure, just like Uber didn’t exist when the mobile phone came out, the application companies are coming.”
  — Leo Kelly (33:00)

Memorable Moments

• The clash in tone between US and China over the leaders’ phone call was a focal point, revealing deep-seated tensions on Taiwan (05:09).
• Candid economic takes on the post-shutdown data “desert,” and how misleading or incomplete data can be in the near term (13:16).
• Analogies to the dot-com bubble and the present-day AI investment surge remind listeners that bubbles can have positive, transformative effects long-term (32:01).

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Legal Cases Dismissed: 02:18 – 04:16
• US–China Call & Taiwan Tensions: 04:16 – 07:16
• Ukraine Peace Talks Update: 07:16 – 09:16
• US Economic Outlook & Fed Policy: 12:43 – 17:02
• AI & Corporate Debt (Oracle): 17:33 – 25:04
• AI Bubble and Investment Strategy: 28:54 – 36:07

Tone & Language

The hosts maintain an even-handed, analytical tone with occasional lightness (“Research doesn’t get to go to the beach, you know”—Robert Shiffman, 23:39) and thoughtfulness as they translate dense policy and economic shifts into digestible insights for business-oriented listeners.

This episode delivers a concise but multi-layered exploration of today’s economic and geopolitical landscape, connecting headline developments with underlying market forces and long-term investment implications.