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At Marsh, we believe that perspective powers progress. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company, a new marsh built to solve the world's most complex challenges and uncover new opportunities for our clients. We're better positioned than ever to help your business navigate obstacles and unlock potential across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments, and management consulting. Learn more@visitmarsh.com podcast hey, this is US.
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And Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act. Conditions and restrictions may apply. Support for the show comes from Public the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors LLC SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures.
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Bloomberg Audio.
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Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg.
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Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news. As it happens, the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.
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I'm sure by now you know that President Trump is sending US Border czar Tom Homan to Minneapolis amid a growing outcry over his immigration crackdown that was inflamed last weekend when federal agents fatally shot a U.S. citizen. Now this is happening as a growing number of Republicans called for a full investigation after federal agents shot and killed that protester in Minneapolis. It's really Tim and you, you really stressed this on our call this morning about we're seeing some tens within the gop.
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Yeah. It's a sign of unease within the party about the administration's aggressive immigration tactics. We're seeing some members of Congress talk in a way right now that they don't typically talk about and going against what the president says. Remember, we're in a different political environment now than I think it's fair to say we've ever been in.
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And CEOs starting to speak out. We're going to dig into that over the next 60 minutes as well. We want to bring in Wendy Schiller, certainly well known to the Bloomberg audience, professor of political science at Brown University. She joins us from Providence, Rhode Island. Wendy, good to have you here. President Trump was out on so social at 11:39am Eastern saying he had a very good call with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz expects to speak to him again in the near future. He said that Walz called the president to request to work together. A lot going on. What's your read on all of this? The president sending Tom Homan. If Governor Walz indeed did call the president, what's this say all to you? Someone who studies presidents, studies administration, studies the core and foundation of America.
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Well, I mean, I think what you're seeing are two different political actors with very different incentives. Waltz is not running for reelection in Minnesota, but he's the governor. He's responsible. And he's got this huge federal presence that is basically spinning out of control on the streets of his own state. And he wants to reassert authority in the sense of calming things down, not necessarily disobeying the federal government, but calming things down. President Trump has other things he thinks he wants to get done. It's not just it's a midterm election year. This is freezing up his presidency. Basically this sort of spin out of control by the Department of Homeland Security in their tactics, not their aims or goals. President Obama deported more than 2.4 million people in his eight years as president. So I think the American public has patience for the effort to sort of say, okay, if you're not here legally, then you have to leave. But, you know, he's underwater in the 60s, meaning more than 60% of Americans disapprove of ice tactics. So it's spilled out not just from ice, but certainly to his entire presidency. Now the Congress is saying, we don't think we will fund the Department of Homeland Security. So by the end of the week, you could have some agencies funded, but you could also have a partial shutdown because of Homeland Security. And so that is sort of throttling up all of President Trump's energy and agenda. And he's got to clear the decks.
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Wendy on the company side of this, I think this got a lot of our attention when this happened, because this is sort of like, you know, we're watching at Bloomberg what these, these companies that are based in Minnesota, what they're saying. And I was surprised to hear over the weekend that target UnitedHealth 3 and Best Buy, among others, addressing immigration actions in Minnesota, some calling for peaceful de escalation, emphasizing compassion. The NBA issued a statement saying it must defend the right to freedom of speech. And they stand in solidarity with the people of Minnesota, protesting. Is this a turning point that has any effect on the president and his policies?
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TIM and CAROL I think this is exactly the question mark, and it's, it'll be deep if it's an inflection point. Right now it says, is this the America we want to be? We've had two US Citizens shot by federal law enforcement under circumstances that have not been clarified by the federal government. And there's calls for investigations. But this, you could ask most Americans, and they say, that's not the way we want this to go. So that's affecting not just the Republicans, but the Democrats as well. It's government exercising government power. So I do think there is a turning point in the sense of expressing real opposition to this particular tactic. And we know that CEOs and business owners have also been unhappy with the Trump administration, with these raids on businesses all over the country, anywhere from Idaho to Iowa, all over. And Trump said, oh, I'll pull back on some of these raids because I know it's hurting business, you know, So I think it's the culmination of unhappiness. And now there is a sort of flash point where I think corporate America can safely come into the fray and say, this isn't just about business anymore and this is about loss of life. And, you know, there's gotta be a better way of doing it.
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And yet, you know, WENDY and we're going to dig deeper into this letter of CEOs in Minneapolis, but it's been largely an environment where the corporate community has sat by and just worked out deals, it seems, with the White House to get what they need done, but kind of turned away from some of the other injustices that have been going on, or the ignoring of the rule of law in this country, which has really been so much a foundation for this country. So I'm just trying to understand, you know, what has really been a kind of a silence that we have seen, largely, whether it's the corporate community and just other leaders in our world, especially.
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In the U.S. well, Carol, I think this is. This is a really important observation that you're making. And what we see at the sort of lowest levels is a rejection in some cases of what you might call an abuse of executive authority. For example, presidential attempts, Trump's attempts to go after his quote, unquote enemies, grand juries, which are made up of your average everyday American who is doing their civic duty, have said, no, we don't find any cause here. We're not giving you a bill of indictment. And that's a very important democratic mechanism at the lowest level, which is saying no to overreach of power. So I think when businesses start to see that the average American is standing up and saying no, whether it's in a grand jury room or it's a. It's on the streets in Minneapolis, I think it gives them more backbone, really, to step up and say, okay, enough is enough.
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Wendy, though, let me just counter. Is it really backbone or is it just, well, okay, midterms coming up, it's not looking really good. I can start shifting around. Same thing for members of the gop.
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Well, I mean, for practical effects. Do we. Do those of us who are concerned about overreach of power care what the motivation is? I think once it becomes safer to venture into this space, I don't see them retreating. So I think their voices, you may argue, I may argue, have been too silent thus far. But now they do have that backup of midterm elections, but that backup rests with consumers. So we saw a lot of this in the reverse when we had DI and boycotts of places that weren't really paying attention to dei. Then we had a reversal under Trump. But what, especially with Target as a company, for example, that had to really pivot again. But now we're seeing the power of the consumer, consumer, maybe not expressed so far in retail, but certainly that same person who's objecting in polls or on the street is somebody who may be buying your product. So it does make sense, if we want to say it, to jump on this bandwagon.
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Wendy, I do want to be fair because, you know, we all talk to, and I'm sure you do too, talk to a lot of leaders and whether it's China, a position that President Trump took in his first administration, that President Biden continued, a lot of the pushback in his administration when it comes to immigration. You mentioned what President Obama did in terms of deportations. So to be fair, what some say too is there are these problems and President Trump has brought them to light in a big way. And so they don't necessarily disagree, but the methods kind of get messy and in the way of what maybe this country stands for.
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Right. So what you want to ask yourself, is this a self inflicted political wound if the president used different rhetoric? I mean, this is the grand, I mean, this is a frustration in the Trump administration, I think, because if you look at the Obama administration, they say, wait a minute, he deported more people than we've managed to deport in our five years in office combined. But it's the rhetoric, it's the demonization, it's sort of the dismissal of people's concerns. I think that is self inflicted. And we have seen this president be able to pivot. You know, this phone call with waltz should not be discounted. This is very important for settling things down in Minneapolis. But also giving Trump an off ramp, can he make Homan the acting department secretary, for example, if Kristi Noem, for example, were to depart from that position, does it give an opening for Trump to make changes at the top there and that may, you know, get his presidency back on track and appease Democrats enough theoretically that they'd be willing to support funding at the end of the week. So I think there's an opportunity for a president who does pivot quite frequently to tamp down the rhetoric. We know Trump can do it. Whether he's willing to right now, we just don't know.
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All right. Love getting time with you always. Wendy Schiller, professor of political science at Brown University, joining us from Rhode Island.
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Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily Coming up after this.
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Business challenges and opportunities are never one dimensional. At Marsh, we believe that to thrive, you need perspective. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company, a newmarsh where each layer of our organization works even more closely together to provide you with a stronger, more panoramic perspective. We're now one firm solving the world's most complex challenges and unlocking opportunities for you across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments and management consistency. As business continues to evolve Marsh will always be here to help you overcome new challenges, answer new questions and take advantage of new opportunities. We're better positioned than ever to provide the perspective you need to fuel progress forward. See how@visitmarsh.com podcast support for the show.
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Comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com, and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member finra, SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures for.
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Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
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All right, let's get to the trade today. This has Demand for exchange traded products focused on European equities was so strong last year in 2025 that they attracted a decade in a year of inflows. That's according to BlackRock Stocks. Ursula Marchioni, head of investment and Portfolio solutions for EMEA at the world's largest asset manager. She caught up interview with Bloomberg TV this morning over with our European colleagues. Check it out from investors with historical own bias towards Europe. That has to be rectified. But then on the flip side from a more tactical perspective there is this desire to diversify and remain exposed to the trade and to the US but with some form of protection. And so we've seen last year the great repatriation trade with nearly 92 billion of flows going back into European equities ETPs. If you compare it to the period 2014 to 2020. 2024, that was 94. So it's basically a decade in a year.
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It's pretty remarkable. A decade in a year. BlackRock's Ursula Marchione, head of investment portfolio solutions for EMEA. Let's get to the trade and today's trade and what she's seeing on the Robinhood platform. Stephanie Guild is with us Chief Investment Officer at Robinhood Markets. Did that resonate with what you're seeing on the Robinhood platform or is that completely different than what you're seeing on the platform?
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We, yeah, we haven't actually seen a ton of international take up at least here in the U.S. we, you've seen a little bit in the Chinese tech aspect like in names like Baba, but largely it's been a very U.S. focused, you know, AI and lots of other investing themes focused over the last year.
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Why do you think that is?
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I think our customers take sort of a long term view and they like to invest in things that they know and understand really no different than past generations. And I think they feel that they know and understand tech and can understand kind of the long term secular growth trends that can come from parts of tech and are willing to take that risk even if it's in the space like quantum computing, which is still, you know, in, in sort of discovery phase.
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Do you think that has to do with some of who are actually on your platform? In other words, the demographics that I think, you know, I don't know, maybe.
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They'Ve only seen us equities outperform.
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Right?
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Like exactly.
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That's not the world that you lived in for much.
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Yeah, right. Could be absolutely part of that. I mean it's the same kind of thing as like, you know, has the generation ever seen value outperform growth?
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Exactly.
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Here in the US it's so funny.
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That you say that. I on Friday was at a big dinner and was talking with someone who has started companies, sell them now investing their own money and just talked about some of the big wealth managers who come to him and say you should be buying the Market, you know, and paying me a fee for doing that.
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And so on and so forth.
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And he's like, you know what? I haven't bought the market. I've actually doubled down on those big tech names and have outperformed the market. Even though if you think about the last few years, people keep saying oh back off some of these, you know, it's time to diversify. You know what if you didn't, you did really well. And especially if you played on those Mag 7 names.
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Yeah, I think, I do think it's shifting now. Like I, I'm sort of a student of, of looking at the market and saying that once you had sort of a post Covid world. I do think the fact that we have interest rates has, has shifted what is possible and can outperform. And there is, you know, Covid kind of brought tech right into front and center and the need for it. But I think as more time goes on and especially with some of the incentives from the one big beautiful bill and other that I think it's possible that you can start to see other things do well.
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And yet the Net buys on your platform. Right. Metta, Microsoft, I'm thinking about we're going to have a what for the Mag 7 reporting this week alone including these two names net sells, Nvidia, AMD and Core Weave. Which is interesting because Core we've rallying in today's session. But that's what you've seen thanks to it.
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Nvidia investment.
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Right, right, yeah.
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And that, that's over the last week. So it does shift. What was also interesting over the last week is that I saw and you kind of saw this news all across the X platform, but you saw below those top names a number of software companies starting to come into the Net buy side. So taking advantage of the pretty deep sell off in that space. And then more recently, just like in the last day, we've seen some Netflix buying as well.
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D
Was that because of the Alex Honnold stunt over the weekend? Just 30 seconds maybe.
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You know, obviously there's a lot of drama with Netflix right now.
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Yeah, there is. You know that's been, it's been beat up ever since the announcement that they're going after Warner Brothers Discoveries assets. So investors don't love it but they keep, they keep steady when hey, we want those assets and we'll pay.
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They still have a solid business underneath it.
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It's pretty. Yeah, that's a good point. Stephanie. Good. Good to see you as always. Appreciate your time.
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Come back soon. Come back soon. Love talking with her. She is chief investment officer over at Robinhood Markets.
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This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
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E
More than 60 CEOs of Minnesota based companies called for an immediate de escalation of tensions, their words, between state, local and federal authorities as the state reels from another fatal shooting of an American by immigration agents. And Tim, what's interesting is, remember we noted last week our team on the ground in Davos what they said Wall street chiefs were kind of up to.
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Yeah. They want to lay low at the World Economic Forum. Don't really want to draw the attention of the president. We've asked this question a lot like why aren't companies more speaking out, more about how, you know, it's kind of obvious why there's limited upside. There's really no upside is what some observers have told us. Like what do you have to gain? You have nothing to gain.
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They don't want to be mentioned maybe at a press conference at the White House. That's, I think, a safe thing to to say. So we wanted to get a good deep dive into this, continue kind of what we've been doing this hour. It's great to have back with us, Rebecca Humquist. She's faculty at the London Business School and at Duke Corporate Executive Education, also author of Survive, Reset Thrive, Leading Breakthrough Growth Strategy in Volatile Times. She joins us from London. Rebecca, great to have you back with Tim and me. CEOs have had to navigate a lot of tricky times. The great financial crisis Covid, the murder of George Floyd, President Trump's immigration crackdown across the U.S. most recently Minneapolis that has resulted in the killing of two Americans. CEOs have largely been quiet up until now. What are you hearing from the global leadership community about this moment in time and those specifically in the United States?
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I
Yeah. I think, Carol and Tim, the discussion you've been having today and in Davos last week, a couple things are going on. One, let's date the fact that we have always run and tried to grow and lead companies through uncertainty. Uncertainty is not new. It is the new certainty. There is an element of geopolitical volatility that we have now that is changing the expectation as well as the current administration's involvement in the private sector. One thing that we saw in 2020 with George Floyd was that companies really weren't prepared of how to handle social issues. They didn't have policies, they hadn't had meetings. It was a pretty tough time. What we've seen since then is most companies have now have something agreed and signed off with the board of how they are going to address social issues. You can agree or disagree with the fact that they have policies. Where we're seeing perhaps a delayed response is that companies now have policies in place where they did not in 2020. And some feel that they might have reacted to knee jerk, kind of not getting the right consensus, Montme not doing it appropriately. We're seeing a bit of that.
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E
Can I just say, to be fair, it sounds like the response that they've agreed is to say nothing.
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You know, Carol, that is partly what we're seeing. We are also, up until now, perhaps. Yeah, up until now, up until today, we are seeing an administration who is very quick to jump. We've seen that from Venezuela, from Iran, from Chair Powell. We saw it last week with Jamie Dimon. This is an administration who is not afraid to call out CEOs by name if they say something that might contradict their policies. And this is the new norm that executives are operating within. And you can disagree, disagree with with the processes. What we're seeing, the differences is there is a process in place and there are trying to lay low. There is very much a sentiment of just put your head down, create value for your shareholders and stakeholders and frankly try to stay out of the way of the administration.
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Is that the right move?
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Now, every CEO needs to decide with his or her team and board him on what's best for them and their company and their employees. And you're going to see different responses because of that. And that's the great thing about employees and teams having a choice. They can choose to align themselves with organizations that might meet their mission or purpose or those that don't. We are really, for the first time over the last week, a bit of what we saw towards the tail end of Davos. Today, what we're seeing from Minnesota, we are seeing more of a response. And again, we get to align ourselves as an investor, as an employee, as a team with those companies that you want to align your values with.
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E
And to be fair, like you made that good point that you just take a look at last week, like the different things that maybe came out of the White House or from the president social posts. And it's a lot of things that maybe go nowhere, Right? So as a CEO, you've got to think about as a leader of any institution, the Longer term.
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I
Right.
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And things that are ultimately going to impact you longer term. So I kind of get that. Having said that, I do think about the impact, though, on society at large, where it feels like a lot of anger, a lot of hate, a lot of division.
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We've had division before in this. I know that.
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And people who live through the 60s or race riots, like, we've had really difficult moments in time. How are you thinking about this, though, in terms of, you know, what are the roles of CEOs? Is it fiduciary responsibilities if you're public? Is it, you know, I don't know. I feel like you go back years ago where you'd have a company in a community and they cared about the community around there. I'm not saying CEOs don't. Lots of stuff. Great leadership out there. But I do wonder what's. What's the larger role of leader and leadership?
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I
You know, one thing that I think is getting lost in the debate from Davos last week to this week, Carol, is that we're speaking about this new world order and changing geopolitical relationships. Most CEOs at Davos last week, if not frankly, all of them, run global companies. They have teams in the U.S. in Europe, in Asia, in Latin America. And these teams get along, and these companies are proud to be global companies. So while we're making a lot about what's going on on a political level, that same rife, country to country, region to region, is not happening inside our global companies. And I think we need to remember that. Right. And kind of separate what we're seeing there, again, for companies, we're seeing different aspects. You know, you are a fiduciary responsibility, if that is your role as a CEO, which is why we're seeing CEOs sometimes take a stand or align with the current administration in a way that you might want to. But that is the power of having the ability to move across different ones and again, align with those who do share your values. I think that we are seeing over the past couple of days a tipping point. And companies that were silent are finally now saying there are things that we need to stand up about and we might see even more of that going forward. We're seeing that on a policy level, as we saw from JPMorgan on the credit cards. We're seeing that on a social level, as we're seeing from the CEOs in Minnesota today.
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D
You bring up a really interesting point about these global companies. And so many American companies have, you know, revenues from all over the world. There's a really interesting Bloomberg businessweek story about how Canadian skiers are not coming to US Mountains as a result of the President's rhetoric and the president's policies and how it's really hitting some of these mountains pretty hard. Jpeak in Vermont, for example, seeing a real toll from there. What is the right way for an American company to communicate to the US but also communicate to customers outside of the US So one doesn't alienate the administration, but also at the same time does not alienate international clientele.
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I
The majority of American and Canadian companies have very strong relationships with the other, Tim, and I'm not seeing that change at all. We are seeing on a strategy and structure aspect, trying to get a little bit more production or manufacturing either in Canada or the U.S. if you're heavy in Canada, you might be trying to build up a bit in the US if you're heavy in the US you're probably trying to build up a bit in Canada or with Mexico. But continuing these relations, it's really we're not seeing the strife at the company level that we are on the political level across customers, across suppliers, across partners. What we're seeing again on a political aspect we're not seeing replicated. When it comes country to country, sorry, when it comes company to company, when it comes to our CEOs, I think that's a good thing. You're not seeing any kind of employees and companies. You're not seeing it across CEOs. The trading relationships remain very practical. What's the best way we can set each other up for success? What's the best way that we can make sure that we can both continue to serve our customers with as much continuity as we want? And that sometimes means having a higher cost burden. Continuity is trumping costs when it comes to making some decisions now. But when it comes to the relationship aspect, I'm not seeing that fracture. I work with hundreds of CEOs across different countries countries. I'm not seeing that fracture at all.
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E
Interesting. Interesting. Especially when you think about take it to an investment perspective, especially with companies with global exposure. Rebecca, so glad we got some time with you. Once again, Dr. Rebecca Humkus, faculty at the London Business School and at Duke Corporate Executive Education, author of Survive, Reset, Thrive.
- [28:28]
D
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. Coming up after this.
- [28:35]
C
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable Index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures Discover.
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- [30:21]
B
Do a skincare line together, he said to me, we are going to give women meaningful beauty. And I said, that's exactly right. We want to give women meaningful beauty. Which means each and every product is meaningful. It has a reason to exist. It's efficacious. You're going to get results and then.
- [30:39]
I
You just go out and live your life.
- [30:40]
B
Meaningful Beauty Confidence is beautiful. Learn more@meaningfulbeauty.com.
- [30:48]
F
You'Re listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on on YouTube.
- [31:02]
D
I want to bring in Stephanie Aliaga, Global market strategist at J.P. morgan Asset Management. Joining us from New York. More than $4 trillion in assets under management over at JP Morgan Asset Management. Stephanie, good to see you on this snowy and cold Monday here in New York. I do want to start with the Fed because yes, we're getting a lot of companies reporting this week and I think a lot of the interest in what Jay Powell has to say, Will, Will, you know, the questions will certainly be around that Sunday video that he put out a couple weeks ago. What are you expecting to hear from him as he does wrap up his term as Fed chair?
- [31:36]
B
Absolutely. Well, I think. Thanks for having me. I think there's two key things that markets are going to be looking for. One, what the Fed is thinking about the state of the U.S. economy. And since the last Fed meeting, we've gotten a lot more data. Now, if we remember, in December, they cut interest rates, but they were missing a lot of really key government data reports around jobs growth and inflation. That fog of uncertainty is lifted, mostly.
- [32:01]
D
Until the next government shutdown, until the.
- [32:04]
B
Next government shuts down. Quite the world we're living in.
- [32:06]
I
Right.
- [32:08]
B
But what the data has shown us is a relatively constructive backdrop.
- [32:11]
I
Right.
- [32:12]
B
The labor market, it's not strong by any means, but it is tight. And that's what the Fed is most concerned about. Q4 GDP may have actually seen an acceleration, even despite the fact that we had a record long government shutdown, which is kind of remarkable. The Atlanta Fed GDP now casts at 5.4%. We think that's a bit of an overestimate. But still, the direction of travel tells you something.
- [32:35]
E
What do you care about? Well, I want to just jump in. What do you care most about? Is it what we get for earnings and revenue growth over the next few weeks here in the United States? Is it the Fed decision? Is it what comes out of the White House? I mean, it's an interesting, you know, Monday silver soaring the most since 2008. Gold topping $5,000 on global angst. We've been talking about money going into Europe. Just trying to get an assessment of what, what you believe should matter most to investors right now.
- [33:06]
B
Absolutely. Well, the fundamentals really being in focus here despite the last few weeks of geopolitical headlines, I want to see earnings guidance that points to this continued broadening out in the market, the continued broadening out, but also the resilience of this AI theme, of the willingness, that structural demand story around AI that is providing some important support for markets and for the economy. Right now. I think that's really going to be in focus. The economy is holding in there and the Fed meeting. To your point, to the question earlier, I think we're not going to see any change now. Maybe we see, you know, we're going to get more clarity on who Fed leadership ultimately evolves to. But I think what markets are going to be most focused on is that broadening out story and really clarity around the I spend prediction markets think it's.
- [33:54]
D
Going to be Rick Reeder, Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Do you care between the two of them?
- [34:00]
B
I think the key. I think it's a great question because I think the key takeaway is regardless of who it is between these two, what matters most to markets is it's now less, far less likely that we're going to have a Fed chair that is deemed very politically influenced. Both of these potential nominees, they may lean dovish in their macroeconomic views, but they are more independent in nature. And that removes what had been a key risk for markets of a potential upset in treasury markets.
- [34:32]
E
So a good thing?
- [34:34]
B
A good thing, absolutely.
- [34:36]
I
All right.
- [34:36]
B
And I think the other thing I might just add on that point is there isn't a view in markets right now that interest rates should be aggressively lower. So regardless of whether it's these two Fed chairs, you know, the, the margin of differentiation here is pretty small. Like maybe we get one more cut because of a dovish Fed chair, but it's unlikely to see a really aggressive move from the Fed with an economic backdrop this constructive.
- [35:02]
G
Is it?
- [35:03]
E
Wait, I was just looking at some of the notes you sent to us. Was it Deep Seek one year ago?
- [35:08]
I
Yeah.
- [35:09]
E
From China.
- [35:09]
C
Right.
- [35:10]
E
I think I marked it down in like my calendar, my calendar book that made us all think about, wait, what's China doing when it comes to AI? How are you thinking about the AI trade here in 2026? We just talked about Nvidia, another investment in core. We just did a great deep dive with our own Ed Ludlow. I highly recommend anybody who missed check it out on the Bloomberg and on our podcast feed. But what is the kind of healthy, smart conversation, Stephanie, around the AI trade this year for you?
- [35:37]
B
You Absolutely. I think the AI theme, it's continuing to broaden out and that's really important. It's an opportunity and a call to action for investors because there is this acute concentration in today's winners. Today's winners are fundamentally strong or some of the most profitable companies that have ever existed. They're aggressing, they're aggressively pivoting towards AI. All of that is appreciated. The challenge is the hurdles to beat are really, really high. We've all become like tiger parents for these Mag 7 firms. Great isn't good enough. That's a risk. Another risk is what Deepseek reminded us. Like, we should not forget we're talking about a technology here that is inherently disruptive. And the challenge, with so much writing on one theme and the success of a small subset of companies is that if we get anything wrong here, if something else disrupts the numbers around the timeline for monetization, the useful life of chips like we've been talking about, even some of the funding sources of this AI build, you're going to feel that volatility much more in your portfolios. The good news is the AI opportunity set is not limited to the company spending the most given all of this capital is flowing to a much broader ecosystem when it comes to this AI buildout. So so we've been really liking areas like utilities and industrials and public markets and private infrastructure in private markets. There is a huge story here when it comes to power, and we think that you're still in the early innings there.
- [37:07]
D
Look no further than what happened over the weekend in the aftermath of the storm. Infrastructure Spend Stephanie Eliaga, Global Market Strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management this is.
- [37:16]
F
The Bloomberg businessweek Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
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B
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B
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I
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A
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