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- [00:02]
Carol Massar
When patients have a disease and the cause is known, it usually ends up needing a specific solution. On the podcast targeting the toughest diseases, we explore the innovative tools, methods and unique philosophy Vertex Pharmaceuticals is using to search for treatments for some of humanity's most challenging diseases. Subscribe today wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [00:31]
Chase Business Card Announcer
The Chase Inc. Business Premier card is a pay in full card with flexibility made for business owners who make things happen. Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more, plus earn unlimited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business. Inc. Business Premier is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way. Learn more@chase.com businesscard Chase for Business make more of what's yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio now with AI powered PDF spaces do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click? Do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal. Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time. Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more@adobe.com Dothatwith Acrobat support for the.
- [01:43]
Public.com Announcer
Show comes from public on public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.
- [02:32]
Carol Massar
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc.
- [02:35]
Public.com Announcer
Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
- [02:48]
Carol Massar
Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures.
- [02:53]
Vonnie Quinn
Bloomberg Audio Studios.
- [02:56]
Carol Massar
Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.
- [03:23]
All right, everybody, we are getting ready to kick off another year with geopolitics front and center. Now keep in mind that President Trump today saying, quote, there has to be a disarming of Hamas as he met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on this Monday. The two did me to talk about the cease fire in Gaza, whose troubled opening months ago are stoking concern that regional fighting could resume in the new year. We did see US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Israeli prime minister talking about regional security, economic cooperation and the fight against anti Semitism during that meeting today. That came from the State Department. But it sounded like there was a handful of issues. Vonnie, I know you were covering the event when President Trump made a few comments on this, but also a lot of other things. The reporters asked about a lot of things, but it sounds like it's not quite done yet.
- [04:10]
Dr. Angela Stent
No.
- [04:11]
Vonnie Quinn
And yeah, as you say, President Trump literally said there were five major subjects that we were discussing and that Gaza was one of those subjects and it was a tough place. But you know, he wants to get to phase two of that deal, but doesn't seem like Netanyahu is comfortable moving off of phase one yet. But of course, Venezuela came up, Russia, Ukraine a lot, Iran. So with that said, let's talk a little bit more about that.
- [04:35]
Carol Massar
Yeah, well, we'll talk about, you know, that is certainly on our radar. But let's get to also the war between Russia and Ukraine. This is the other geopolitical issue, if you will. That's certainly on our minds. It's getting very close to beginning its fifth year. President Trump held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier today. That was according to the White House. And that came one day after the US Leader met with his Ukrainian counterpart, President Volodymyr Zelensky. They talked about efforts to bring halt to the Kremlin's war. President Zelensky said he asked President TRUMP For U.S. security guarantees lasting as long as half a century to help deter any future Russian invasion.
- [05:10]
We discussed all the aspects of the.
- [05:13]
Peace framework which includes and we have.
- [05:15]
Dr. Angela Stent
A great achievements 20 point peace plan, 90% agreed.
- [05:20]
Carol Massar
And US Ukraine security guarantees 100% agreed.
- [05:23]
US Europe, Ukraine security guarantees almost agreed.
- [05:26]
Dr. Angela Stent
Agreed. Military dimension 100% agreed.
- [05:30]
Mike McGlone
Prosperity plan being finalized.
- [05:33]
Carol Massar
That, of course, is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. That was yesterday after a meeting with President Trump. Hey, let's get into this and what's going on with you? The United States involvement between the Russia and Ukraine war. Dr. Angela Stent is back with us. She's senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, author of Putin's World, Russia against the west and with the rest, a former national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia. As we said at the national intelligence, she understands the situation so much. Great to have you back with us, Angela. I am shocked that we're going into or getting very close to going into the fifth year of this war. What are you seeing, if anything that tells you we are getting maybe closer to an end or not?
- [06:18]
Dr. Angela Stent
Well, we've had very furious negotiations going on now for the past few months with Russia between certainly Stephen Witkoff, Jared Kushner meeting with Putin and then with President Zelensky meeting with President Trump meeting with European leaders. We have two, I think, competing peace plans out there. The 28 point peace plan, which was leaked a few weeks ago and which sounded as if it had been largely written in Moscow, but it was a joint US Russian peace plan. This would have been unacceptable to the Ukrainians and really to the Europeans. And then we now have, have apparently a 20 point peace plan which was agreed between Ukraine, its European backers, and I think the United States, which cuts back on some of the compromises that Putin was demanding that Zelensky make. Zelensky yesterday, of course, did say that 90% had been agreed, but I think it's the last 10% that's very problematic. Putin called President Trump before he met President Zelensky. They've had another conversation and I think the Russians are going to string this along, but we, we still have no real indication that Vladimir Putin is interesting in stopping this war.
- [07:36]
Carol Massar
You know, Angela, I feel like we've talked about this so much and, you know, it does sound like President Putin, he wants land. I mean, he got it the first time that he invaded Ukraine and he wants it again this time around. Is there any chance he backs off of this? Because this is what seems to be really a major sticking point.
- [07:55]
Dr. Angela Stent
Well, he wants the land, but the land is a means to what he really wants, which is the subjugation of Ukraine. So when he talks about we have to get to the root causes, yes, he would like the whole of the Donbass region and is asking Ukraine to give Russia land that Russia doesn't control. But that's just a means to an end. It would make Ukraine more vulnerable if the war breaks out again. And he wants Ukraine to say that it's going to remain neutral, that it's not going to join any Western alliance systems. That's what he really wants. And he's using the land question in a way to distract from what the broader goals are.
- [08:33]
Vonnie Quinn
How much is there a time constraint here, Dr. Stent? Because, you know, there are elections. I mean, there's elections coming up in Ukraine, and obviously at some point we'll get the midterms here, and then at some point after that there may or may not be a change of leadership. Is Putin focused on things like that?
- [08:50]
Dr. Angela Stent
Well, Putin is demanding elections in Ukraine, but of course there can't be elections in Ukraine unless the fighting has stopped. And you have to have a ceasefire first. And Putin has not agreed to a ceasefire. Yes, we have midterms coming up here. And a majority of Americans now, more and more Americans support Ukraine and are much more wary about what Putin is doing. And that includes Republicans, not only in the Senate, but Republicans in the rest of the country. So I don't think Putin feels any time constraints, but the Ukrainians do because they are running out of manpower. They do have manpower problems. They need more weapons. And the US Is selling weapons to the Europeans who are then giving it to Ukraine. But there's not an infinite supply of those weapons. And we have winter coming up now. It's already upon us. That could be more difficult for the Ukrainians. The Russians are bombing all of their energy infrastructure and depriving them of heat and light and things that they need for the winter. So I would say the Ukrainians are under more time constraints than the Russians are, but they're not losing this war, as the Russians claim they are. And they have taken back some territory recently that the Russians claim that they hold. But certainly Putin believes that time is on his side.
- [10:04]
Vonnie Quinn
The security proposal under discussion, it's apparently for a 15 year term. Zelensky wants that to be a lot longer, perhaps as long as 50 years. Will he get it?
- [10:15]
Dr. Angela Stent
Well, we're not really clear what those security provisions are. I mean, Europeans are willing to provide troops to enforce any kind of peace. The US has said that there'll be some kind of backstop. They've talked about Article 5 type guarantees, which is what NATO countries have, which means if one NATO country is attacked, the rest of them would consider that an attack on all of them. But it's very hard to see how you get those kind of guarantees if Ukraine isn't a member of NATO. And again, we could have a different government in the United States. You can have different governments clearly in Europe, the different elections coming up. So I think a 50 year guarantee is probably unrealistic. But one understands why Zelensky wants it, because as long as Putin's in power or people like him, they're not going to give up on subjugating Ukraine. So there could be another re invasion in the coming years.
- [11:09]
Carol Massar
Angela, is it clear what the US Position is, especially after President Trump was asked in the earlier press conference when Benjamin Netanyahu and he were together? President Trump said he was very angry when he heard from Russian President Vladimir Putin about an alleged attack on one of his residences. Again, allegations we're not quite sure. I believe Ukraine has maybe denied this, but I'm just curious, is it clear where the US Stands or is that part of the negotiating tactic of being kind of friend and foe and it changes maybe from week to week or day to day?
- [11:44]
Dr. Angela Stent
Well, what's clear is that Trump wants to improve ties to Russia. He's wanted to do that since day one of this interim that he's offering the Russians economic incentives which he thinks may bring them round. He does want to bring the war to an end. I think he genuinely wants to end the war. And then he also wants to claim credit for it. But you know, yesterday he said some things. He equated the Russian bomb bombing of Ukrainian civilian structures, energy infrastructures with the Ukraine, the Ukrainians sometimes hitting Russian energy installations. And then he also said yesterday that Putin wanted Ukraine to succeed, which is a rather extraordinary thing to say since they've been making war on Ukraine for nearly five years now. So I'm not sure what the US Position is, but I do think the Trump administration wants the war to end.
- [12:36]
Carol Massar
All right, 10 or 15 seconds. I'm not going to ask you to bet the house on this, but do you think we wrap up this war? Does it get wrapped up in 2026? Just quick.
- [12:45]
Dr. Angela Stent
I wish it could. I wish it could wrap up. I'm not sure that it will.
- [12:49]
Vonnie Quinn
Dr. Angela Stent, thank you so much. Dr. Angela Stent, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of Putin's World Russia against the West. And with the rest, Stay with us.
- [13:01]
Carol Massar
More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily. Coming up after this, When patients have a disease and the cause is known, it usually ends up needing a specific solution. On the podcast targeting the toughest diseases, we explore the innovative tools, methods and unique philosophy Vertex Pharmaceuticals is using to search for treatments for some of humanity's most challenging diseases. Subscribe today Wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [13:39]
Public.com Announcer
Support for the show comes from public on public. You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.
- [14:29]
Carol Massar
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc.
- [14:32]
Public.com Announcer
Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
- [14:44]
Carol Massar
Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere. You turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of Jefferson jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every Agent Secure any agent Okta.
- [15:17]
Chase Business Card Announcer
Secures AI the Chase Inc. Business Premier card is made for business owners who make things happen. Designed for high spend and limitless cashback, Inc. Business Premier is a painful card with built in flexibility. Get the buying power you need to make large purchases, cover unexpected expenses and help your business grow. Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more plus earn unlimited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business. From innovation and technology to everyday expenses, Inc. Business Premier is the only business credit card with 2.5% cash back on every purchase of 5,000 dol thousand dollars or more and is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way. Learn more@chase.com businesscard Chase for Business make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC.
- [16:19]
Carol Massar
You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on 8 Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [16:33]
We want to stay with all of the geopolitics that continue to come at us. Henrietta Traze is with us. She's Veda Partners managing Partner. She's also director of Economic Policy. She also served in the US Senate as a tax, banking and Finance legislative assistant. So she understands from the understands the private and the public sector. She's done a lot. Henrietta, good to have you back with us. I do want to go domestic, but first I've got to go global. The president spending a lot of time on foreign affairs. What is is this important in terms of the US Economic situation, the US Business environment going forward?
- [17:09]
Henrietta Trays
You know, I think what's clear from that press conference and what we saw from Zelinsky's meeting today and then to tie it into China, as the president did earlier, even on the China front, with all three of these instances with the US Trade deal with China, the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and the Gaza and Hamas and Israel situation is that there's got to be devils everywhere. The devil is in the details and we don't have any details. There are no hard and fast details. The president wasn't able to give any of them, neither on the Abraham Accords or as you just mentioned, on the west bank on timing. There's daylight between Netanyahu and Trump and I think there's a lot of daylight between Zelensky and Putin to say the very least. And there's a lot of daylight between the US And China on just our terms of trade deal. So I think it's pretty clear that all this is going to drag into 2026 and the President is extremely occupied with these issues. The issue for the president and then therefore for the Republican Party down ballot is that Americans are not focused and they don't even have in their top 10 issues that they care about foreign policy going into next year's midterm election. So what is it to tie in the foreign policy part is really interesting for the president to double down like this on, on on these issues which are obviously important to him but are not making forward progress and don't impact the US Consumer or voter.
- [18:28]
Carol Massar
I love that you went there and Certainly for the global investing audience, this can matter, right, in certain terms of opportunities or relationships. But having said that, when it comes to the midterms, which will also be important to financial markets and what more of the President's agenda he can get done in the second half of this second term for him. So this focus is surprising. Do you think he shifts in the new year year?
- [18:51]
Henrietta Trays
I think he tries to do both. You know, he's tried to do both in the first year where he did the one big beautiful bill which is very economically oriented. Three and a half trillion dollars in deficit increasing tax cuts principally to corporations in 25, with some of it coming for individuals in 26. I think the Republican conference and the President feels like they've done their job on the economy and now we need to wait and let it work out. That's certainly what they're hoping for going into next year. The trade, or rather the tariff dividend that the President tout is $450 billion of money he's not going to get out of Congress to send home to the American public. So there's not another fiscal package coming from D.C. he has to keep an attention on other things while touting the one big beautiful bill because there's not going to be another piece of legislation that passes in 2026, in my opinion. Hey, what that's going to keep the issue alive?
- [19:41]
Carol Massar
Well, and the other thing just kind of blown away by some of the notes that you guys shared with our team. The most controversial view VEDA has going into 2026 is that when SCODA rules on those tariffs, if they rule against, then the President will not quickly move to replace them with new authorities, as he and his economic advisers insist. But he would say that SCOTUS would be handing the President a domestic gift by striking down the tariffs, which equate to about $1,800 per household at their current levels. Do you expect SCOTUS to strike them down?
- [20:11]
Henrietta Trays
Yes, I do. And I think I'm in pretty good company on that one. As you know, the courts below the Court of International Trade and the Court of Appeals have both rejected it. My odds are 65% that the Suprem courts rejected it. I'm hopeful that they do it in the first quarter and get this binary event, $3 trillion binary event off our backs. But the single best thing that could happen to this administration and again to Republicans down ballot is for the President to get the tariffs revoked by the Supreme Court. He doesn't have to admit failure or anything along those lines. You can just say the Supreme Court won't let me do it and then just not migrate to 338 or Balance of Payments Authority or two 32s or 301s. They're going to be threatened. But look at the ones that have already been threatened and aren't yet on Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors. Where's the critical minerals investigation? It was supposed to be released on the 27th. It might be on the President's desk, but he's clearly sitting on it. And that's because he can't afford to have prices continue to rise by imposing new tariffs, especially on those items. So I think it's the best case scenario for this president, for the Supreme Court to take the tariffs down. That would clear the de minimis tariffs. That would clear all the IPA retaliatory tariffs tariffs and give the President the ability to take a more nuanced approach to trade instead of the blunt acts. That was Liberation Day. And I go one step further if I may and say if he takes the opportunity to reimpose all these tariffs, it's going to be so confusing for small and large businesses alike. It will be the equivalent of Liberation Day 2.0. You can't just swap them out, right? So you know, prepare for April 4th again.
- [21:45]
Carol Massar
Well, that means it's going to be an interesting 2026. No doubt about it. Whichever way it goes. Henrietta, Always enjoy getting some time with you. Henrietta Trays, VED Partners Managing Partner and Director of Economic Policy joining us here.
- [21:57]
Public.com Announcer
Support for the show comes from public on public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated Assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.
- [22:47]
Carol Massar
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc.
- [22:50]
Public.com Announcer
Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
- [23:02]
Carol Massar
Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identified identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI the Chase Inc. Business.
- [23:38]
Chase Business Card Announcer
Premier card is made for business owners who make things happen. Designed for high spend and limitless cash back, Inc. Business Premier is a painful card with built in flexibility. Get the buying power you need to make large purchases, cover unexpected expenses and help your business grow. Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more, plus earn unlimited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business. From innovation and technology to everyday expenses, Inc. Business Premier is the only business credit card with 2.5% cash back on every purchase of or more and is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way. Learn more@chase.com businesscard Chase for Business make more of what's yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio now with AI powered PDF spaces. Do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click. Do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal. Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time. Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat Bat.
- [25:09]
Carol Massar
This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa. Play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [25:27]
Vonnie Quinn
Well, from the fintech sector to the commodities space, we're seeing a major pullback. Well, I would say, you know, a modest pullback really in gold, gold and silver. But the two metals did top records earlier this week. I mean, they just went on a tear here to break down the recent moves. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Mike, how much of all of this was just pure speculation?
- [25:49]
Mike McGlone
Just about all of it, I think, Vonnie, when you get to these extreme levels, particularly in thin markets with things like gold and particularly silver, silver is known as the dabbles metal for a reason. But they're up so much this year. Silver, as we both of you mentioned, we've noted a lot. It's the best year since 1979 for both of those metals. And history has proven when you rally this velocity. My rule as a strategist is I take off that fundamental technical outlook, I switch over to a money manager. I say typically new longs at these levels do very poorly. So I'll give you an example. Silver settled 1979 at $32.27 an ounce. And the first end of the year to close above that level is this year, 2025. It's been a long time, almost 50 years.
- [26:34]
Carol Massar
What's driving the trade and the sell off? Is it a supply demand metric? Is it investors looking to move assets around a safe haven place? Certainly when it comes to gold, what is it? Because I know supply demand can often be a big factor, Mike, when it comes to various commodities and precious metals.
- [26:52]
Mike McGlone
Certain certainly Carol, in silver it is. But the narratives that they're using now for pulling up silver have been around for years. We've all known about the demand from solar and everything. But to me now it's in that speculative excessive stage. I think people are realizing it's much more beneficial maybe to allocate to some precious metals where there's only 4 versus cryptocurrencies where there's 28 million. As a previous announcer failed to mention, there's an unlimited supply of cryptocurrencies and there's only really about 10 major metals. So I still think they're going to do well. The problem is they've just gone too far. So I like to compare to metals now was when the Hunt brothers cornered the Silver Market in 1979. We had a similar peak this year in cryptocurrencies with Mr. Trump tilting over from antagonist to zealot. And to look forward to next year, I think it's a good chance things like silver can get down to 50 and up to 100. But basically that's the top metal that can go down because it went up too much. And even gold, gold can even easily trade down below 4,000 and above 5,000. But I think it's a top metal that can also drop a little bit just because they've gone up so much and there's so much in the mainstream now.
- [27:59]
Vonnie Quinn
Mike, a quick word on copper because we had it rallying above $13,000 a tonne in London overnight now came way off that price. But there are real concerns surrounding copper and its industrial uses, right?
- [28:10]
Mike McGlone
Yes, copper. The main theme is the supply constraints this year. It's very rare. Is there going to be that industrial demand from places like China which is in a basically recessionary deflation period. So I look at copper as completely dependent on the stock market going up again next year. And if US stock market drops, copper will probably drop about twice as much. But copper is also auto correlated. So I'm very worried that it's not going to be able to sustain these Israelis. Particularly as you look at deflationary forces in China is indicated by its 10 year yield about 1.86%.
- [28:43]
Carol Massar
I feel like Mike, we'd be remiss not to give you 30 seconds on crypto having considering the conversation we just had. And how often did you hear I don't know what are you thinking about when it comes to bitcoin in particular for 2026 and just got about 2030 seconds here.
- [28:59]
Mike McGlone
More likely to go to 50 and maybe lower than stay high, higher. It's another thing that's completely dependent on stock market going up and it's probably indicating we're going to see more volatility next year.
- [29:10]
Carol Massar
All right, good to know and I'm sure we'll be checking in with you a lot. Mike McGlone, thank you so much. Happy holidays. He is senior commodity strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence joining us here.
- [29:25]
Public.com Announcer
Support for the show comes from public on public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.
- [30:15]
Carol Massar
Investing Brokerage Services by open to the Public Investing Inc.
- [30:18]
Public.com Announcer
Member Finra and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
- [30:31]
Carol Massar
Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise with os, Okta, you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent Secure any agent. Okta secures AI the Chase Inc. Business.
- [31:06]
Chase Business Card Announcer
Premier card is made for business owners who make things happen. Designed for high spend and limitless cash back, Inc. Business Premier is a painful card with built in flexibility. Get the buying power you need to make large purchases, cover unexpected expenses and help your business grow. Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more, plus earn unlimited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business. From innovation and technology to everyday expenses, Inc. Business Premier is the only business credit card with 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more and is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way. Learn more@chase.com businessclass Chase for Business make more of what's yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations. Apply Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio now with AI powered PDF spaces. Do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click. Do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal. Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time. Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat.
- [32:42]
Carol Massar
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this. You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube.
- [33:03]
All right everybody, we are back on Bloomberg. Markets are across Bloomberg platforms radio, TV, YouTube, Bloomberg originals. I'm Carol Massar with Vonnie Quinn. All right, well, IPOs return kind of in a big way, maybe big with quotes, I should say, up US IPO volume, excluding Sparks and closed end funds exceeding $40 billion. Those deals created 21 new billionaires. However, many of them saw their wealth diminish afterward. And that plays into the share price. What happened after those new offerings? Dylan Sloan covers IPOs for us here at Bloomberg, and he joins us right now in studio. Dylan, let's talk about the good news because we did see finally the IPO market open up. We're not at the record levels that we've seen in years past, but nonetheless, we're. We saw some activity.
- [33:46]
Dylan Sloan
We did, yeah. It started strong. Venture Global, one of the first firms to debut this year. It was slated to be the biggest energy IPO for over a decade. They downsized that slightly, but again, things got off to a hot start, expectations really high. This was viewed as an administration that would be favorable to a lot of these big deals. We also closed the year with Medline just a few weeks ago, which was the biggest. Exactly. Biggest IPO worldwide this year, one of the largest medical health IPOs in years. So, you know, start and finish were strong. But again, yeah, there was a little bit of instability there towards the middle that, that I'm sure we're going to.
- [34:17]
Carol Massar
All right, so we talk about it. Minted 21 new billionaires. Are there still 21 new billionaires or that not exactly last.
- [34:23]
Dylan Sloan
Exactly. So we did see somewhat of a recurring pattern for a lot of these offerings. There was a lot of retail interest for many of these. We saw a bunch of offerings in a lot of these buzzy sectors, sort of AI plays crypto. We would see these massive spikes in the first day or two of trading. We'd see this. The, you know, the economic value value of insider stakes spiked. Billions or multiple billions of dollars. And then often those gains would, would, you know, fall just as quickly.
- [34:45]
Vonnie Quinn
Yeah, I mean, I always felt bad for the retail investor because unless they had got in beforehand and how would you know? And you can't. Then they were completely, I mean, they would have lost a lot of money on these.
- [34:55]
Dylan Sloan
Exactly. And some of these ups and downs were really big. Newsmax is one in particular that we were looking at that was back in late March, early April. Those shares gained, you know, 2200 percent in the first two days of trading. Massive spike. Chris Ruddy, the founder, former New York Post journalist, who said there's no money in journalism Right. He was a billionaire multiple times over after that offering. But then again, that was all gone just as quickly. Shares are now trading below the IPO trading price. And like you're saying, yeah, it really was an up and down and a lot of people got burned on it.
- [35:20]
Vonnie Quinn
Leaves a really bad taste in the mouth.
- [35:22]
Dr. Angela Stent
Yes.
- [35:22]
Vonnie Quinn
So what's the outlook for the beginning of the year? Because certainly into the end of the year we're deal today, we're having deals almost every single day at the end of this year.
- [35:32]
Dylan Sloan
Yeah, a lot of the reporting that's been out there about the outlook for 2026 is around some of these really big name deals for companies that have been private for a while. We're thinking Space X1 that Bloomberg has been reporting on extensively. You know, we're talking potentially about a $1.5 trillion IPO coming sometime next year. Open Air, Anthropic Stripe are some of these other really big names that have been thrown around. So there'll be a bit of a disconnect from this year where it was a lot of these again, smaller companies, many of them sort of holdovers, crypto companies that had kind of waited it out during the crypto winter. And we're coming back to the public markets now after a few years. So that's something to definitely look out for next year. Of course, all still up in the air a little bit, yet to be seen if any of those coming through, but certainly could be big ones.
- [36:08]
Carol Massar
The Winkleville became billionaires this year. I mean, are there any among the. Could you guys break it down by IPO and some of those that became new billionaires, anybody who held on to their money throughout?
- [36:19]
Dylan Sloan
Yeah, relatively few companies. And I will note that, you know, even though some of these companies have did have that massive spike and then down, many of them are still trading at or above the offering price. So you know, for people who got in at the very beginning, they're doing okay. But I would say in terms of themes to break it down, crypto is one that I've said a few times. That's when we saw Bullish Crypto exchange down about half from its opening price. Webull, another exchange down nearly 90%. Circle and Gemini, two of the crypto firms who have lost a lot from their high water marks. The energy sector was another one where he had a few big names. Yeah, Venture Global, which I mentioned at the beginning, Liquid natural gas company, they're down a good bit from their IPO back early in the year. And then Fermi also this data center company recently down about 77% from their high water mark in October.
- [36:59]
Carol Massar
So you got themes, you got to go to core weave that we talked a lot about core weave this year, talk how that it's been enough and.
- [37:05]
Dylan Sloan
Down for Corey of a real roller coaster. You know, right after the offering things were a little tepid. It wasn't entirely clear where it was going. But then we saw a really big run up later through the year as again, they've become kind of increasingly more involved in that AI play and really kind of a poster child for a lot of these new neo cloud companies that are popping up.
- [37:21]
Carol Massar
But it's amazing. You look at the numbers. So they're up change since the opening IPO price on March 28, up almost 100%. So almost doubling. But since the high watermark, they're down almost 60%.
- [37:30]
Dylan Sloan
Exactly. Has been a really big up and down and not instant for them. It's really kind of over the course of the whole year, but that's one that's still playing out for sure.
- [37:38]
Vonnie Quinn
And then what about the, these stablecoin companies and the, you know, those, those, that whole area because we had circle and that sort of everybody's eyes popped when that went public.
- [37:46]
Dylan Sloan
Right? Exactly. That was one of those that saw a massive, massive gain right at the outset. And you know, it's down about 70% from the high water mark on June 23rd. But overall it's not actually doing that poorly. That's one of those companies where compared to the offering price, they're faring relatively well. You know, obviously there was a genius act passed over the summer which helps kind of solidify some of that, the regulatory landscape around stablecoins, which has been a tailwind for them. So that's one of those companies where, you know, it kind of depends which angle you're looking at it from.
- [38:14]
Carol Massar
It's certainly something the administration has been very, very, absolutely interested in.
- [38:17]
Vonnie Quinn
And there could be some, some more legislation tied to the genius act next year as well. Dylan, thank you so much. It's a fascinating beat and we love chatting to you. That is Dylan Sloan covering IPOs for us right now.
- [38:28]
Carol Massar
This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. This podcast is brought to you by FedEx, the new power move hey, you know those people in your office who are always pulling old school corporate power moves? Like the guy who weaponizes eye contact. He's confident, he's engaged, he's often creepy. It's an old school power move. But this alpha dog laser gaze won't keep your supply chain moving across borders. The real power move? Having a smart platform that keeps up with the changing trade landscape. That's why smart businesses partner with FedEx and use the power of digital intelligence to navigate around supply chain issues before they happen. Set your sights on something that will actually improve your business. FedEx the new power move these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardy. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, secure any agent. Okta secures AI Hey, Ryan Reynolds here.
- [40:18]
Dylan Sloan
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