Bloomberg Businessweek — “Trump’s Venezuela Oil Revival Plan Is a $100 Billion Gamble”

Date: January 6, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec
Guest: Dr. Francisco Monaldi, Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy & Director of the Latin American Energy Program, Rice University

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the ambitious and contentious plan spearheaded by former President Donald Trump to revive Venezuela's beleaguered oil industry, pegged as a potential $100 billion gamble. The conversation centers around U.S. interests, global energy dynamics, Venezuela's oil potential, the roles of international corporations and foreign powers, and what it would actually take for this revival to succeed. Guest expert Dr. Francisco Monaldi offers a sober, nuanced perspective on the technical, political, and economic realities underpinning this effort.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Why Does the U.S. Care About Venezuelan Oil?

• Strategic Motivation: The U.S. is looking to bolster its energy security and long-term supply resilience, not just for the present but as a buffer against potential future scarcity.
  • Dr. Monaldi:

    "Without a doubt, having more production in the Western Hemisphere is something that contributes to the energy security of the United States and potentially of the world." (02:46)

• Not Just a 'Grab': It's partly about the U.S. and global future demand, which, according to Dr. Monaldi, likely won’t decline for at least a decade.

2. Global Oil Demand Outlook and Venezuela's Potential Role

• Demand Stays High: Recent analysis from international agencies predicts no decline in demand for the next ten years, and risks of scarcity could rise by the decade’s end.
  • Dr. Monaldi:

    "Basically, there is a high probability that we will not see in the next 10 years decline of oil demand… Venezuela could multiply by four or even five its production. At least that's technically possible; politically, is of course another question." (03:31)

• Unique Position: Venezuela and possibly Iran are among the very few countries capable of materially boosting production in the coming years.

3. The AI-Energy Angle & National Security

• AI and Energy Usage: Booming AI and tech growth is creating increased electricity needs, which ripple across the entire energy system.
  • Dr. Monaldi:

    "For the first time in a long time, we will see a significant increase in electricity demand in the United States, which will have effects over the whole energy system and does contribute to the need of more fossil fuels." (04:32)

4. Corporate Hurdles: Will Oil Giants Return?

• Major Legal and Investment Barriers:
  • U.S. oil giants like ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil are owed billions due to past expropriations.
  • For companies to return, Venezuela must guarantee "clear regulatory, contractual, fiscal framework that is credible in the long run."
    • Dr. Monaldi:

      "They will need to have a clear regulatory, contractual, fiscal framework that is credible in the long run… before they can recover [their investments]." (05:29)

  • Exxon's caution: Given the relatively small debt and past experiences, Exxon may be even less likely to invest again.
• Recovery Before Investment: For some (like Conoco), returning may be the only pragmatic way to recover massive debts.

5. The Role and Hesitancy of China and Russia

• Current Foreign Players: Venezuela’s oil sector is now split mainly among the national oil company, Chevron, and then Chinese and Russian state companies, each with meaningful but complicated stakes.
  • Dr. Monaldi:

    "About half of the production is done by the national company, 25% by Chevron, and then the other two big players are the Chinese and the Russian national companies. Each produces about 10, 11% of Venezuela's oil." (06:45)

• Reluctant Partners: The Chinese are owed more than $10 billion and have faced tough conditions, making them very reluctant to pour in more capital; Russian expansion is inhibited mainly due to geopolitics.

6. The Bottom Line: Is the U.S. Plan a Good Idea?

• Outcome Is Uncertain: The impact completely depends on Venezuela’s political and legal trajectory.
  • Dr. Monaldi:

    "If this has a happy ending with… a transition to democracy, rule of law, etcetera, I think it would be something very positive for the region and for the future of the oil market. If it doesn't, of course it could go really, really wrong." (07:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On U.S. Motivations:

  "It's a combination of things... having more production in the Western Hemisphere is something that contributes to the energy security of the United States."
  — Dr. Francisco Monaldi (02:46)

• On Venezuela’s Unique Oil Potential:

  "Venezuela could multiply by four or even five its production. At least that's technically possible; politically, is of course another question."
  — Dr. Francisco Monaldi (03:31)

• On Foreign Corporate Concerns:

  "They will need to have a clear regulatory, contractual, fiscal framework that is credible in the long run."
  — Dr. Francisco Monaldi (05:29)

• On the Need for Rule of Law:

  "If this has a happy ending with... a transition to democracy, rule of law... it would be something very positive... If it doesn't, of course it could go really, really wrong."
  — Dr. Francisco Monaldi (07:47)

Important Timestamps

• 02:46 — Dr. Monaldi explains U.S. motivations behind involvement in Venezuela
• 03:31 — Venezuela’s potential to increase oil production and the global supply outlook
• 04:32 — Discussion on AI-driven demand, energy security, and increased fossil fuel use
• 05:29 — Requirements for international oil companies to re-invest in Venezuela
• 06:45 — The current foreign players and their hesitancy to invest more
• 07:47 — Dr. Monaldi’s reflection on whether the plan is wise
• 08:19 — Closing remarks and appreciation for Dr. Monaldi’s expertise

Summary Takeaway

The episode offers a nuanced exploration of the economic and geopolitical stakes surrounding the proposed revival of Venezuela's oil sector. Success hinges not just on technical or financial capital, but on untangling Venezuela’s deep governance and debt problems, as well as managing international interests and risks. The $100 billion gamble is as much about politics and partnership as it is about oil. The consensus: the opportunity is huge, but so are the odds against an easy win.