Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: US Core CPI Eases to Four-Year Low in Shutdown-Hit Report
Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec (plus regular contributors)

Overview

This episode dives deep into the major economic and business forces closing out 2025 and shaping 2026, including inflation trends, the outlook for equities, the impact of policy decisions (especially at the Fed and in Washington), banking and real estate trends in New York City, the challenges of the restaurant industry, and a surprise in nuclear fusion. Multiple high-profile guests, including Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY), Frank Sorrentino (Chairman/CEO, Connect One Bancorp), Michelle Cosmo (President/CEO, National Restaurant Association), and Will (Bloomberg Energy Reporter), provide data-driven insights and candid opinions.

Key Segments & Insights

1. 2025 in Review & 2026 Market Outlook with Jason Grana (BNY)

[02:34–11:24]

Market Recap & 2026 Preview

2025 was marked by volatility: administrative changes, U.S. military engagements, government shutdown, and major AI deals.
Despite turbulence, market trends more or less aligned with initial expectations, with policy rates edging lower and risk assets higher, though the journey was “very nonlinear.”
Quote: “There’s going to be weeks, maybe months that don’t feel that warm and fuzzy, but [there’s a] pretty strong backdrop... The one big, beautiful bill.” – Jason Grana [03:02]

Inflation and the “One Big Beautiful Bill”

The recently passed stimulus bill is not expected to be highly inflationary, though it could put “a little pressure,” especially given tricky lingering effects from the government shutdown.
Jason notes that despite headline-soft inflation data, markets aren’t completely buying the idea that core inflation is as low as the data suggests.
Quote: “Markets seem to be anchored at a certain point, no matter where the winds swing on [Fed chair] choices.” – Jason Grana [04:56]

Fed Leadership and Policy Consensus

Discussion on potential next Fed chairs: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Michele Bowman.
Grana says that while the chair matters in the long run, in the short term it’s about committee consensus, especially given the scattershot nature of expectations among members.
Quote: “Still talking about a committee... There’s a lot of work to do to bring people together.” – Jason Grana [04:56]

Six Big Questions For 2026 Investors

BNY’s “6 for 26” research distills essential themes: central bank policy, dollar dynamics, risks, equity valuation, labor market fragility, and divergence in global rate paths.
On equities: there’s “a lot of price for perfection” in some sectors, but continued fiscal and monetary stimulus may keep supporting risk assets.
Quote: “You can’t just look at valuations. These are new technologies and new horizons... we're early days in whatever this AI adventure will be.” – Jason Grana [07:34, 08:10]
Major risks include labor market unevenness and the persistent 10-year Treasury yield staying stubbornly above 4% despite rate cuts.

Global Central Bank Divergence

Sharp differences in central bank policy ("not everyone is student body right/student body left") create market uncertainty and confusion, even among rate-setters.
Memorable moment: The group jokes about consensus, unpredictability, and watching both Washington and the Fed for surprises in 2026.

2. NYC Business, Real Estate, and Banking: Frank Sorrentino (Connect One Bancorp)

[16:39–26:18]

NYC Business Environment Amid Political Change

General optimism for the NYC and broader metro economies heading into 2026, but concern that policy shifts could damage the city’s business-friendly reputation.
Notably, NYC has a unique affordability and jobs challenge, especially in the financial sector.

Affordable Housing Solutions & Political Realities

Sorrentino highlights the “physics” of supply and demand: increasing housing supply by bringing vacant rent-controlled units online would lower prices, but politics frequently blocks commonsense solutions.
Quote: “Some of the laws of economics—they’re like the laws of physics… If we increase supply, we’re going to have lower prices.” – Frank Sorrentino [19:38]
Calls for incentives for landlords/investors and means-testing for rent-controlled units to reduce vacancies.

State of Small Business & Construction

Small business confidence is high, pipeline/backlog strength going into 2026.
Major challenge is hiring qualified workers, not so much demand or inflation.
Quote: “Small business I think is doing very, very well today. The noise is out of the marketplace. People are feeling good."[22:08]

Banking Environment & Mergers

Banking is in a strong position thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, a steeper yield curve, and robust economic optimism.
While more M&A is possible, organic growth is strong; any deals “must make financial sense.”
Geographic focus remains on the NY Metro area and Florida.
Quote: "Bank valuations are up pretty strongly. Banks are now favored in portfolios... optimism around the economy going into 26.” – Frank Sorrentino [25:57]

3. Trump Media, TAE Tech, and the Fusion Deal: Analyst “Will”

[27:34–34:47]

Surprise Nuclear Fusion Tie-In

Trump Media & Technology Group to merge with TAE Technologies, a fusion power developer, in a $6B all-stock deal.
TAE is noteworthy among fusion startups for “solid progress,” but no one – including TAE – has realized a commercial or demo-scale fusion system.
The deal offers needed cash (up to $300M) for TAE’s next steps.
Fusion’s promise: abundant, relatively clean energy without the dangerous radioactive waste of traditional fission plants.
Quote: “Fusion is really hard… it’s literally creating a little tiny star that you confine with super powerful magnets and get energy out of that.” – Will [28:04]

Perspective on Timeline and Hype

Commercial fusion remains “maybe less than 10 years” away, with major milestones targeting 2027–2028, but skepticism remains warranted.
On federal policy, recent moves to streamline nuclear regulation could help—but slow permitting, not physics, is often said to be the bottleneck.
Quote: “To be fair, I want a government that takes radiation seriously. But…it slows the process. Especially in this country, nuclear is very, very expensive.” – Will [33:49]

4. Restaurant Industry Outlook: Michelle Cosmo (National Restaurant Association)

[38:50–49:45]

Mixed Fortunes in Food Service

While Darden Restaurants and affordable dining chains excel, others like Sweetgreen, Kava, and Chipotle have stumbled, highlighting sector volatility.
2025 saw $1.5 trillion in sales—an increase, but not enough for tight-margin businesses.
Uncertainty (costs, tariffs, labor, supplies) is the greatest challenge.
Quote: “Value matters. Price certainty really matters. It depends on how you’re leaning into that price certainty for customers.” – Michelle Cosmo [39:39]

State of the Consumer

The average diner is “very deliberate”—spending is measured and cautious.
Industry traffic/guest count remains below desired levels.

Labor, Immigration & Workforce Woes

Severe workforce shortages: nearly 1 million open hospitality positions in December 2025.
Immigration’s decline is straining both labor supply and customer base.
Quote: “There’s 988,000 open positions in restaurant and hospitality this month. So we need workers… and this is why it’s been a significant issue for us to push for immigration reform.” – Michelle Cosmo [42:43]

Responding to Political Narratives

Pushback against the “immigrants are criminals” narrative, emphasizing that most immigrant workers are striving, reliable contributors.
“There’s a lot of people who are showing up every day, working hard, being reliable, taking care of their families, doing the right things…” – Michelle Cosmo [45:28]

Marginal Cost Pressures

Beef and seafood price fluctuations are top cost drivers, exacerbated by tariff policies and supply chain kinks.
Many produce items cannot be grown year-round in the U.S., so keeping tariffs off imports is key.

Unusual Issue: The Great Penny Shortage

A surprising hit: $13–$14M in monthly “rounding-losses” industry-wide due to a lack of pennies as the Fed stops circulating them.
“One in four transactions in restaurants is a cash transaction. Often, they can’t get exact change…” – Michelle Cosmo [48:13]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“These things can change very, very, very quickly... we're early enough in the journey. We're early days in whatever this AI adventure will be.” – Jason Grana [08:10]
"If we increase supply, we're going to have lower prices. That's something politicians don't typically understand." – Frank Sorrentino [19:38]
“Fusion is really hard… it’s literally creating a little tiny star that you confine with super powerful magnets and get energy out of that.” – Will [28:04]
“The lack of certainty actually creates something that feels quite the opposite… When restaurants are dealing with … tariff price increases changing from day to day, that definitely gets to be a challenge.” – Michelle Cosmo [41:23]

Timestamps for Key Segments

Market/Economic Outlook – 02:34–11:24
NYC Real Estate/Banking – 16:39–26:18
Fusion Deal/Tech – 27:34–34:47
Restaurant Industry – 38:50–49:45

Tone and Language Summary

The discussion maintains Bloomberg’s hallmark of data-driven, articulate, and sometimes wry analysis. Guests are candid, rarely optimistic without caveats, and speak plainly about risk, uncertainty, and the unpredictable nature of business and policy—balanced with a forward-looking curiosity and moments of humor (e.g., “Have they checked the couch cushions?” [49:35]).

For New Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

Investors: Clear, nuanced forecasts about 2026’s global economy, rate paths, and asset classes.
NYC Stakeholders: Insight into economic risks and opportunities presented by new local leadership.
Energy Tech Watchers: An honest reality check on fusion’s timeline and Trump Media’s surprising pivot.
Business Operators: Candid discussion of supply chain/labor hurdles in hospitality—and why it’s both a consumer and policy issue heading into an election year.

This summary presents the substance, tone, and highlights of the podcast for anyone wanting to be informed without listening to the full show.

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: US Core CPI Eases to Four-Year Low in Shutdown-Hit Report
Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec (plus regular contributors)

Overview

Key Segments & Insights

1. 2025 in Review & 2026 Market Outlook with Jason Grana (BNY)

[02:34–11:24]

Market Recap & 2026 Preview

2025 was marked by volatility: administrative changes, U.S. military engagements, government shutdown, and major AI deals.
Despite turbulence, market trends more or less aligned with initial expectations, with policy rates edging lower and risk assets higher, though the journey was “very nonlinear.”
Quote: “There’s going to be weeks, maybe months that don’t feel that warm and fuzzy, but [there’s a] pretty strong backdrop... The one big, beautiful bill.” – Jason Grana [03:02]

Inflation and the “One Big Beautiful Bill”

The recently passed stimulus bill is not expected to be highly inflationary, though it could put “a little pressure,” especially given tricky lingering effects from the government shutdown.
Jason notes that despite headline-soft inflation data, markets aren’t completely buying the idea that core inflation is as low as the data suggests.
Quote: “Markets seem to be anchored at a certain point, no matter where the winds swing on [Fed chair] choices.” – Jason Grana [04:56]

Fed Leadership and Policy Consensus

Discussion on potential next Fed chairs: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Michele Bowman.
Grana says that while the chair matters in the long run, in the short term it’s about committee consensus, especially given the scattershot nature of expectations among members.
Quote: “Still talking about a committee... There’s a lot of work to do to bring people together.” – Jason Grana [04:56]

Six Big Questions For 2026 Investors

BNY’s “6 for 26” research distills essential themes: central bank policy, dollar dynamics, risks, equity valuation, labor market fragility, and divergence in global rate paths.
On equities: there’s “a lot of price for perfection” in some sectors, but continued fiscal and monetary stimulus may keep supporting risk assets.
Quote: “You can’t just look at valuations. These are new technologies and new horizons... we're early days in whatever this AI adventure will be.” – Jason Grana [07:34, 08:10]
Major risks include labor market unevenness and the persistent 10-year Treasury yield staying stubbornly above 4% despite rate cuts.

Global Central Bank Divergence

Sharp differences in central bank policy ("not everyone is student body right/student body left") create market uncertainty and confusion, even among rate-setters.
Memorable moment: The group jokes about consensus, unpredictability, and watching both Washington and the Fed for surprises in 2026.

2. NYC Business, Real Estate, and Banking: Frank Sorrentino (Connect One Bancorp)

[16:39–26:18]

NYC Business Environment Amid Political Change

General optimism for the NYC and broader metro economies heading into 2026, but concern that policy shifts could damage the city’s business-friendly reputation.
Notably, NYC has a unique affordability and jobs challenge, especially in the financial sector.

Affordable Housing Solutions & Political Realities

Sorrentino highlights the “physics” of supply and demand: increasing housing supply by bringing vacant rent-controlled units online would lower prices, but politics frequently blocks commonsense solutions.
Quote: “Some of the laws of economics—they’re like the laws of physics… If we increase supply, we’re going to have lower prices.” – Frank Sorrentino [19:38]
Calls for incentives for landlords/investors and means-testing for rent-controlled units to reduce vacancies.

State of Small Business & Construction

Small business confidence is high, pipeline/backlog strength going into 2026.
Major challenge is hiring qualified workers, not so much demand or inflation.
Quote: “Small business I think is doing very, very well today. The noise is out of the marketplace. People are feeling good."[22:08]

Banking Environment & Mergers

Banking is in a strong position thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, a steeper yield curve, and robust economic optimism.
While more M&A is possible, organic growth is strong; any deals “must make financial sense.”
Geographic focus remains on the NY Metro area and Florida.
Quote: "Bank valuations are up pretty strongly. Banks are now favored in portfolios... optimism around the economy going into 26.” – Frank Sorrentino [25:57]

3. Trump Media, TAE Tech, and the Fusion Deal: Analyst “Will”

[27:34–34:47]

Surprise Nuclear Fusion Tie-In

Trump Media & Technology Group to merge with TAE Technologies, a fusion power developer, in a $6B all-stock deal.
TAE is noteworthy among fusion startups for “solid progress,” but no one – including TAE – has realized a commercial or demo-scale fusion system.
The deal offers needed cash (up to $300M) for TAE’s next steps.
Fusion’s promise: abundant, relatively clean energy without the dangerous radioactive waste of traditional fission plants.
Quote: “Fusion is really hard… it’s literally creating a little tiny star that you confine with super powerful magnets and get energy out of that.” – Will [28:04]

Perspective on Timeline and Hype

Commercial fusion remains “maybe less than 10 years” away, with major milestones targeting 2027–2028, but skepticism remains warranted.
On federal policy, recent moves to streamline nuclear regulation could help—but slow permitting, not physics, is often said to be the bottleneck.
Quote: “To be fair, I want a government that takes radiation seriously. But…it slows the process. Especially in this country, nuclear is very, very expensive.” – Will [33:49]

4. Restaurant Industry Outlook: Michelle Cosmo (National Restaurant Association)

[38:50–49:45]

Mixed Fortunes in Food Service

While Darden Restaurants and affordable dining chains excel, others like Sweetgreen, Kava, and Chipotle have stumbled, highlighting sector volatility.
2025 saw $1.5 trillion in sales—an increase, but not enough for tight-margin businesses.
Uncertainty (costs, tariffs, labor, supplies) is the greatest challenge.
Quote: “Value matters. Price certainty really matters. It depends on how you’re leaning into that price certainty for customers.” – Michelle Cosmo [39:39]

State of the Consumer

The average diner is “very deliberate”—spending is measured and cautious.
Industry traffic/guest count remains below desired levels.

Labor, Immigration & Workforce Woes

Severe workforce shortages: nearly 1 million open hospitality positions in December 2025.
Immigration’s decline is straining both labor supply and customer base.
Quote: “There’s 988,000 open positions in restaurant and hospitality this month. So we need workers… and this is why it’s been a significant issue for us to push for immigration reform.” – Michelle Cosmo [42:43]

Responding to Political Narratives

Pushback against the “immigrants are criminals” narrative, emphasizing that most immigrant workers are striving, reliable contributors.
“There’s a lot of people who are showing up every day, working hard, being reliable, taking care of their families, doing the right things…” – Michelle Cosmo [45:28]

Marginal Cost Pressures

Beef and seafood price fluctuations are top cost drivers, exacerbated by tariff policies and supply chain kinks.
Many produce items cannot be grown year-round in the U.S., so keeping tariffs off imports is key.

Unusual Issue: The Great Penny Shortage

A surprising hit: $13–$14M in monthly “rounding-losses” industry-wide due to a lack of pennies as the Fed stops circulating them.
“One in four transactions in restaurants is a cash transaction. Often, they can’t get exact change…” – Michelle Cosmo [48:13]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“These things can change very, very, very quickly... we're early enough in the journey. We're early days in whatever this AI adventure will be.” – Jason Grana [08:10]
"If we increase supply, we're going to have lower prices. That's something politicians don't typically understand." – Frank Sorrentino [19:38]
“Fusion is really hard… it’s literally creating a little tiny star that you confine with super powerful magnets and get energy out of that.” – Will [28:04]
“The lack of certainty actually creates something that feels quite the opposite… When restaurants are dealing with … tariff price increases changing from day to day, that definitely gets to be a challenge.” – Michelle Cosmo [41:23]

Timestamps for Key Segments

Market/Economic Outlook – 02:34–11:24
NYC Real Estate/Banking – 16:39–26:18
Fusion Deal/Tech – 27:34–34:47
Restaurant Industry – 38:50–49:45

Tone and Language Summary

For New Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

Investors: Clear, nuanced forecasts about 2026’s global economy, rate paths, and asset classes.
NYC Stakeholders: Insight into economic risks and opportunities presented by new local leadership.
Energy Tech Watchers: An honest reality check on fusion’s timeline and Trump Media’s surprising pivot.
Business Operators: Candid discussion of supply chain/labor hurdles in hospitality—and why it’s both a consumer and policy issue heading into an election year.

This summary presents the substance, tone, and highlights of the podcast for anyone wanting to be informed without listening to the full show.

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US Core CPI Eases to Four-Year Low in Shutdown-Hit Report

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Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Overview

Key Segments & Insights

1. 2025 in Review & 2026 Market Outlook with Jason Grana (BNY)

2. NYC Business, Real Estate, and Banking: Frank Sorrentino (Connect One Bancorp)

3. Trump Media, TAE Tech, and the Fusion Deal: Analyst “Will”

4. Restaurant Industry Outlook: Michelle Cosmo (National Restaurant Association)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Tone and Language Summary

For New Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Overview

Key Segments & Insights

1. 2025 in Review & 2026 Market Outlook with Jason Grana (BNY)

2. NYC Business, Real Estate, and Banking: Frank Sorrentino (Connect One Bancorp)

3. Trump Media, TAE Tech, and the Fusion Deal: Analyst “Will”

4. Restaurant Industry Outlook: Michelle Cosmo (National Restaurant Association)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Tone and Language Summary

For New Listeners: Why This Episode Matters