US Core CPI Eases to Four-Year Low in Shutdown-Hit Report

Summary

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Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: US Core CPI Eases to Four-Year Low in Shutdown-Hit Report
Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec (plus regular contributors)

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Overview

This episode dives deep into the major economic and business forces closing out 2025 and shaping 2026, including inflation trends, the outlook for equities, the impact of policy decisions (especially at the Fed and in Washington), banking and real estate trends in New York City, the challenges of the restaurant industry, and a surprise in nuclear fusion. Multiple high-profile guests, including Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY), Frank Sorrentino (Chairman/CEO, Connect One Bancorp), Michelle Cosmo (President/CEO, National Restaurant Association), and Will (Bloomberg Energy Reporter), provide data-driven insights and candid opinions.

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Key Segments & Insights

1. 2025 in Review & 2026 Market Outlook with Jason Grana (BNY)

[02:34–11:24]

Market Recap & 2026 Preview

• 2025 was marked by volatility: administrative changes, U.S. military engagements, government shutdown, and major AI deals.
• Despite turbulence, market trends more or less aligned with initial expectations, with policy rates edging lower and risk assets higher, though the journey was “very nonlinear.”
• Quote: “There’s going to be weeks, maybe months that don’t feel that warm and fuzzy, but [there’s a] pretty strong backdrop... The one big, beautiful bill.” – Jason Grana [03:02]

Inflation and the “One Big Beautiful Bill”

• The recently passed stimulus bill is not expected to be highly inflationary, though it could put “a little pressure,” especially given tricky lingering effects from the government shutdown.
• Jason notes that despite headline-soft inflation data, markets aren’t completely buying the idea that core inflation is as low as the data suggests.
• Quote: “Markets seem to be anchored at a certain point, no matter where the winds swing on [Fed chair] choices.” – Jason Grana [04:56]

Fed Leadership and Policy Consensus

• Discussion on potential next Fed chairs: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Michele Bowman.
• Grana says that while the chair matters in the long run, in the short term it’s about committee consensus, especially given the scattershot nature of expectations among members.
• Quote: “Still talking about a committee... There’s a lot of work to do to bring people together.” – Jason Grana [04:56]

Six Big Questions For 2026 Investors

• BNY’s “6 for 26” research distills essential themes: central bank policy, dollar dynamics, risks, equity valuation, labor market fragility, and divergence in global rate paths.
• On equities: there’s “a lot of price for perfection” in some sectors, but continued fiscal and monetary stimulus may keep supporting risk assets.
• Quote: “You can’t just look at valuations. These are new technologies and new horizons... we're early days in whatever this AI adventure will be.” – Jason Grana [07:34, 08:10]
• Major risks include labor market unevenness and the persistent 10-year Treasury yield staying stubbornly above 4% despite rate cuts.

Global Central Bank Divergence

• Sharp differences in central bank policy ("not everyone is student body right/student body left") create market uncertainty and confusion, even among rate-setters.
• Memorable moment: The group jokes about consensus, unpredictability, and watching both Washington and the Fed for surprises in 2026.

2. NYC Business, Real Estate, and Banking: Frank Sorrentino (Connect One Bancorp)

[16:39–26:18]

NYC Business Environment Amid Political Change

• General optimism for the NYC and broader metro economies heading into 2026, but concern that policy shifts could damage the city’s business-friendly reputation.
• Notably, NYC has a unique affordability and jobs challenge, especially in the financial sector.

Affordable Housing Solutions & Political Realities

• Sorrentino highlights the “physics” of supply and demand: increasing housing supply by bringing vacant rent-controlled units online would lower prices, but politics frequently blocks commonsense solutions.
• Quote: “Some of the laws of economics—they’re like the laws of physics… If we increase supply, we’re going to have lower prices.” – Frank Sorrentino [19:38]
• Calls for incentives for landlords/investors and means-testing for rent-controlled units to reduce vacancies.

State of Small Business & Construction

• Small business confidence is high, pipeline/backlog strength going into 2026.
• Major challenge is hiring qualified workers, not so much demand or inflation.
• Quote: “Small business I think is doing very, very well today. The noise is out of the marketplace. People are feeling good."[22:08]

Banking Environment & Mergers

• Banking is in a strong position thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, a steeper yield curve, and robust economic optimism.
• While more M&A is possible, organic growth is strong; any deals “must make financial sense.”
• Geographic focus remains on the NY Metro area and Florida.
• Quote: "Bank valuations are up pretty strongly. Banks are now favored in portfolios... optimism around the economy going into 26.” – Frank Sorrentino [25:57]

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3. Trump Media, TAE Tech, and the Fusion Deal: Analyst “Will”

[27:34–34:47]

Surprise Nuclear Fusion Tie-In

• Trump Media & Technology Group to merge with TAE Technologies, a fusion power developer, in a $6B all-stock deal.
• TAE is noteworthy among fusion startups for “solid progress,” but no one – including TAE – has realized a commercial or demo-scale fusion system.
• The deal offers needed cash (up to $300M) for TAE’s next steps.
• Fusion’s promise: abundant, relatively clean energy without the dangerous radioactive waste of traditional fission plants.
• Quote: “Fusion is really hard… it’s literally creating a little tiny star that you confine with super powerful magnets and get energy out of that.” – Will [28:04]

Perspective on Timeline and Hype

• Commercial fusion remains “maybe less than 10 years” away, with major milestones targeting 2027–2028, but skepticism remains warranted.
• On federal policy, recent moves to streamline nuclear regulation could help—but slow permitting, not physics, is often said to be the bottleneck.
• Quote: “To be fair, I want a government that takes radiation seriously. But…it slows the process. Especially in this country, nuclear is very, very expensive.” – Will [33:49]

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4. Restaurant Industry Outlook: Michelle Cosmo (National Restaurant Association)

[38:50–49:45]

Mixed Fortunes in Food Service

• While Darden Restaurants and affordable dining chains excel, others like Sweetgreen, Kava, and Chipotle have stumbled, highlighting sector volatility.
• 2025 saw $1.5 trillion in sales—an increase, but not enough for tight-margin businesses.
• Uncertainty (costs, tariffs, labor, supplies) is the greatest challenge.
• Quote: “Value matters. Price certainty really matters. It depends on how you’re leaning into that price certainty for customers.” – Michelle Cosmo [39:39]

State of the Consumer

• The average diner is “very deliberate”—spending is measured and cautious.
• Industry traffic/guest count remains below desired levels.

Labor, Immigration & Workforce Woes

• Severe workforce shortages: nearly 1 million open hospitality positions in December 2025.
• Immigration’s decline is straining both labor supply and customer base.
• Quote: “There’s 988,000 open positions in restaurant and hospitality this month. So we need workers… and this is why it’s been a significant issue for us to push for immigration reform.” – Michelle Cosmo [42:43]

Responding to Political Narratives

• Pushback against the “immigrants are criminals” narrative, emphasizing that most immigrant workers are striving, reliable contributors.
• “There’s a lot of people who are showing up every day, working hard, being reliable, taking care of their families, doing the right things…” – Michelle Cosmo [45:28]

Marginal Cost Pressures

• Beef and seafood price fluctuations are top cost drivers, exacerbated by tariff policies and supply chain kinks.
• Many produce items cannot be grown year-round in the U.S., so keeping tariffs off imports is key.

Unusual Issue: The Great Penny Shortage

• A surprising hit: $13–$14M in monthly “rounding-losses” industry-wide due to a lack of pennies as the Fed stops circulating them.
• “One in four transactions in restaurants is a cash transaction. Often, they can’t get exact change…” – Michelle Cosmo [48:13]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “These things can change very, very, very quickly... we're early enough in the journey. We're early days in whatever this AI adventure will be.” – Jason Grana [08:10]
• "If we increase supply, we're going to have lower prices. That's something politicians don't typically understand." – Frank Sorrentino [19:38]
• “Fusion is really hard… it’s literally creating a little tiny star that you confine with super powerful magnets and get energy out of that.” – Will [28:04]
• “The lack of certainty actually creates something that feels quite the opposite… When restaurants are dealing with … tariff price increases changing from day to day, that definitely gets to be a challenge.” – Michelle Cosmo [41:23]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market/Economic Outlook – 02:34–11:24
• NYC Real Estate/Banking – 16:39–26:18
• Fusion Deal/Tech – 27:34–34:47
• Restaurant Industry – 38:50–49:45

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Tone and Language Summary

The discussion maintains Bloomberg’s hallmark of data-driven, articulate, and sometimes wry analysis. Guests are candid, rarely optimistic without caveats, and speak plainly about risk, uncertainty, and the unpredictable nature of business and policy—balanced with a forward-looking curiosity and moments of humor (e.g., “Have they checked the couch cushions?” [49:35]).

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For New Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

• Investors: Clear, nuanced forecasts about 2026’s global economy, rate paths, and asset classes.
• NYC Stakeholders: Insight into economic risks and opportunities presented by new local leadership.
• Energy Tech Watchers: An honest reality check on fusion’s timeline and Trump Media’s surprising pivot.
• Business Operators: Candid discussion of supply chain/labor hurdles in hospitality—and why it’s both a consumer and policy issue heading into an election year.

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This summary presents the substance, tone, and highlights of the podcast for anyone wanting to be informed without listening to the full show.

Transcript

[Host 1]

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[Bloomberg Announcer]

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news this is Bloomberg Businessweek daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Hey, we want to stay though on the markets and the outlook. We've got a great guest to do that and also to get into some new research that they had out late last month. 6 for 26 essential questions for Investors Investors probably have a lot of questions going into the new year. Back with us is Jason Grana. He's Chief Investment officer of bny. Right here in studio. How are you?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

I'm great.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

How are you?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Love the new studio.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Thank you, thank you.

[Host 1]

Cool.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

We're kind of loving it too. How are you loving kind of the market environment Right now. And how are you thinking about the new year?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Yeah, so if I go back and think about this year and we're at the beginning, you think about all the wild things that happened. We went through the new administration liberation. People forget that the US Military was engaged in a war back in the spring. The one big beautiful bill in negotiations, the long government shutdown, these mega AI deals that happened over the course of the year. And what happened, kind of what everyone thought would happen. Policy rates are a little bit lower, risk assets are higher, but it was very nonlinear. And so if I think about 26, I think it's probably going to feel somewhat similar. There's going to be weeks, maybe months that don't feel that warm and fuzzy, but pretty strong backdrop. You have the stimulus coming from the one big. The one big beautiful bill.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Will that be inflationary, though, and cause some problems perhaps for the Fed and the next Fed chair, whoever that may be, he or she.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

So, I mean, look, we're talking a lot about the inflation data today and questions around it. Obviously, the headline was softer, but markets are not reacting, believing that the underbelly of that data is as clean as it could be from a hangover from the shutdown. I'm not convinced that it's going to be super inflationary. It could be a little. It could put a little pressure against it. And I think. But if you look at where policy rates have been trading for the end of 2026, no matter what we've talked about all those things that happened, all the questions about all these different Fed people, they've been right between 290 and 310. And so the market kind of has this credibility around where it's heading, no matter all these kind of balls that are thrown at it.

[Host 1]

Well, I wanted to just talk about the Fed a little bit because the President did say, speaking to three or four different candidates, if you look at polymarket, for example, the money's still on Kevin Hassett, but Kevin Wash is a close second favorite. Christopher Waller's on there, too. Michele Bowman, who he mentioned is still only at 1% at this point. Does it matter to you of those four, who gets picked?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Yes. So we've had a lot of names. I think there were five and there were one, now there's four. Back to my point, markets seem to be anchored at a certain point, no matter where the winds swing on these choices. What I would say is we're still talking about a committee, we're still talking about consensus on a committee. If you look at the Dots that come. It looks like a scatter plot. There's a lot of work to do to bring people together. So while I think that it does matter ultimately over a long period of time, obviously who the chair is for talking about the near term, this is about building consensus, getting the views. And quite frankly, this is a tricky environment. You know, Carol, you raised the underbelly of inflation.

[Host 1]

Yeah.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

We had the labor market that's a little weak. These are tricky times for both the Fed and global central banks.

[Odoo Advertiser]

Quite.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

So you guys have whittled it down to 6 for 26.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Well, we tried. We tried.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Was it hard whittling it down to six?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Yeah, look, I mean, we tried to catch the big themes that are out there.

[Host 1]

Right.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

You know, obviously central bank, obviously the dollar, obviously we try to capture all those different things.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Let's go through a couple. Global economy maintain its delicate balance through 2026. And you just talking about forces balancing toward growth acceleration and I guess those that might not be towards that.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Yeah, look, it's, it's fragile. This is what we're talking about. I mean, we think that it can maintain our conviction when we went through and did the work to put that out, as we think that the, that the tailwinds continue to outweigh the headwinds. But there's some fragility. Yeah, the labor report showed you that it's kind of not every sector with strength. Obviously the questions about the inflation data, where things are happening, you know, we think it does have the support behind, but it's, it's more a closer call than not.

[Host 1]

Jason, we're going to jump around a little bit in the report. The question that you have posed, I think a lot of people have right now when they look at the US Equity market, are US equities overvalued? Yes or no?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Yeah. I mean, obviously this is, you know, are some overvalued? And what I would say is there's always some that are overvalued and there's always some that undervalued.

[Host 1]

But, but are there some more right now than usual that are overvalued?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Look, there's a lot of price for perfection in the market in certain sectors. Right. That being said, we are getting some stimulus that's coming into the market next year. We do have easier, not tighter monetary policy on the horizon. We do have fiscal stimulus, corporate tax benefits that are there. I think a lot of it's in the price. But we think there continue to be a little support on risk assets here into next year for sure.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Jason, what do you do? Who do you talk to? What is the research that you guys look at to figure out whether the trade, the spend, the build out is getting frothy? Is it just a case of looking at valuations or who do you talk to to kind of get an idea?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

So you can't just look at valuations. These are new technologies and new horizons where on some level the raw valuation doesn't really matter as much as what are the fundamentals, what's the forward of the different projects, what partnerships? You're seeing all these partnerships come out. So there's a whole series of strategic alliances that are going to be developed over time.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Are you comfortable, though, with the circular financing and complicated relationships and kind of cozy relationships?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

I'm a bond guy, so I'm always a little. I'm always a little nervous. That's how it works.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

And so are, you know, those folks when they look at Oracle. Right. And what's going on in their, their balance sheet.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Yeah, I think what you're seeing across the horizon is that we're starting to sift through and think about who some possible winners and losers are. But this is a long game. You know, if I think about back in the spring, people were questioning Google, what's going to happen to search, what's going to happen in that ecosystem. Now people see Google as, you know, maybe the biggest winner. So these things can change very, very, very quickly. And I think that we're early enough and we have a little chart that shows how early we are kind of in the journey here. And that's what I think it's important for folks to remember. We're early days in whatever this AI adventure will be. It's not going to be all highs or all lows, but we're, but, you know, there's going to be some sorting that goes through.

[Host 1]

What, what's the risk, the main risk for 2026, what, what gets the train off the rails?

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

You look, like I said there's a lot of fragility. I think, obviously for the Fed and for policy here in the US Is clear. The labor market, you're seeing a lot of unevenness across the labor market. You know, growth is strong, but probably slightly below potential. So is there a point where the late taking folks out of the labor market brings growth down and that starts to fall further below potential? And then look, we've had rate cuts last fall, we've had rate cuts this fall, and we still have 10 years that won't get off 4%.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Yeah, exactly.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

To me, that's something that has to manifest itself through the economy still as well.

[Host 1]

Yeah.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

It's so funny because we dipped below for a moment, it felt like. And then we had some guests maybe even talking about moving closer to three. And yet here we are at 4.1 and we're sitting there for a while.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Yeah, it's pretty stubborn there.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Well, you said, you know, you're a bond guy. So the diverging. One of the things that you guys are talking about, the six essential questions for investors. How are diverging emerging rate paths shaping fixed income in the U.S. europe and emerging markets? And this is on a day where the body and ecb, Right. Reined in with rates. We get a decision from the bank of Japan tomorrow. We had the Fed recently. There are diverging policies among some central banks.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

And Carol says beyond diverging policies, that the agreement is not there. The bank of England had a 5, 4 vote, very tight. Look at, as I said, look at the dots. It's all over the ecb. Look, listen to what they're saying. It's not everyone is student body right, student body left at all these different central banks. So not only do you have different speeds across these, but you also have inside there's still some sorting that happens. So when you ask about the risks and the things, you can see the confusion in the market and even from the experts who make these decisions.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

So it could go a lot of different ways in 2026.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Yeah, let's have fun. That's what makes this a fun. That's what makes it fun to do.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

It does sound like there's a consensus that we've got to keep our watch on Washington, whether it's policy out of the White House in so many different ways. Our policy over, you know, monetary policy from the Fed. There's a lot that's going to be coming our way, that way.

[Host 1]

Yeah.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

People are policy. And so you got to listen to what the people are saying. They push it through. And that's. And that's what happened this year. Right. They drove all these undulations. But if you talked about where we were at the beginning, I think we were. Are where we thought we'd be at the end. But it wasn't that smooth.

[Odoo Advertiser]

No.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

And there were points where you never thought it would go. It was going to end out this.

[Odoo Advertiser]

Right.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Jason, happy holidays.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Happy holidays. Great to see you. Enjoy your break.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

We'll see you in 2020.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

CNC 26.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Yes.

[Jason Grana (Chief Investment Officer, BNY)]

Everybody.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Yeah, same to you. Jason Granite, chief investment officer at BNY right here in studio.

[Host 1]

Stay with us More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this. When patients have a disease and the cause is known, it usually ends up.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Needing a specific solution.

[Host 1]

On the podcast targeting the toughest diseases, we explore the innovative tools, methods and unique philosophy Vertex Pharmaceuticals is using to search for treatments for some of humanity's most challenging diseases. Subscribe today wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Lenovo Advertiser]

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[Bloomberg Announcer]

The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Bloomberg has reported out as many other news organizations something you and I have talked about about a lot, Tim. About how some, well, you could just.

[Host 1]

Open up the app formerly known as Twitter and you can see this.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

This is true.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

It's about how some that are wealthy and just some in general are concerned about some of the priorities of incoming New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani. On that, we caught up with Kathy Wild, outgoing presidency CEO of the Partnership for New York City. They represent a lot of the city's corporate leadership. So we're talking about real estate developers, PE firms, banks, law firms. By the way, Bloomberg LP is a member of the Partnership for New York City. Kathy Wild, also part of New York Mayor elect Zoran Mandani's transition team and she addressed some of his policies that he campaigned on, including higher taxes. Check it out.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

You may raise the rates of taxes, but that may not result in more revenues. If you scare people away or if you scare companies away or as we've seen lately, we've seen a real threat to jobs in New York. We, for the first time, our first time in my experience over 50 years, are seeing a decline in the number of jobs in our financial services industry. Scary thing, that's 40% of our state income tax revenues. We don't, I mean, these are, you know, we've got to pay attention and I think he gets that.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

But we've got to be at the.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

Table discussing these issues and helping figure out how do employers help solve the child care problem.

[Host 1]

That's Kathy Wilde, outgoing president and CEO of the Partnership for New York City, also part of New York City mayor like Zoran Mamdani's transition team. Carol, curious what our next guest has to say about all this.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Yeah, great job. Back in studio, Frank Sorrentino, chairman and CEO at the publicly held New Jersey based Community bank, Connect One Bancorp. They are the parent company of Connect One Bank. Great, great, great to have you here. How are you?

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Great to be here. Great to be in the new studio. It's fantastic.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, we're working on, you know, real estate around here. Tell us about the environment. You are kind of consistently optimistic and have been a lot over the past year. Is that still the case?

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

I'm very, very optimistic about where we are.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Yeah.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

And especially the journey we've taken this year to get here. It's been a, you know, quite the roller coaster up and down and we certainly didn't start the year in the same place. But I really felt the foundation was there for a very solid end to 2025. But that foundation now has really created, I believe, believe an unbelievable ramp at 26. And I think we're going to have a lot less of the noise that we heard during 25 and more focus on how this economy is building strength as we move through 26.

[Host 1]

I want to go to what Cathy Wild was saying about concern over New York City. She has a close relationship with many business leaders. She's also part of the mayor's transition team. Last time you're on with us, it was just after the election. We spent a lot of time talking about politics, specifically housing, because of your construction background.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

It's a great conversation.

[Host 1]

But the New York City side of things, I mean, you've got, you've got locations in New Jersey and New York and Florida as well, but you've got locations here in New York City. So you understand the economy. What are you hearing from your New York City based clients?

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Look, I think the economy in general is very strong, but we are, as you just heard, we are on the precipice of if there are changes that drive the sentiment to think that New York is not a friendly, friendly place to do business, we could see change. And so certainly that's a concern. We certainly know there's a concern about affordability in New York City. But overall, I think it's all going to work out. It always has before.

[Host 1]

Does it make you optimistic that somebody like Kathy Wilde, who has, who has the ear of so many in the business community, is involved with the incoming mayor?

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Yeah, absolutely. And there's others who are joining the team who I think we would all say we're happy they're there. Look, at the end of the day, I don't think anybody can argue with some of why this mayor was elected.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Right.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

The issue of affordability, trying to make A fairer system for everyone. I think we could all get around that. How we go about doing that is a different story.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

How do we. I know we talked about this with.

[Host 1]

You, but you know, you're a builder, so that's why we talk about it with you, because you understand these things.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

I'm trying to unpack this. I mean, a builder's not going to build a building if it's not going to be profitable. Right.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

There's, there's been numerous studies across this country and across various time periods. It doesn't matter when, how or where you look at it. There's a really interesting story right now in the Twin Cities where, you know, one city is trying to maintain affordability by government control and then the other city is doing it by free market. Let's let the builders build.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Yeah.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Because you know, to me, some of the laws of economics, they like the laws of physics, you may like to agree or disagree, but, but they are what they are. And if we increase supply, we're going to have lower prices. And that's something I think politicians don't typically understand. I mean, if you look right now, even in like the rent rate, the rent regulated portfolio, rent stabilized portfolio in New York City, there's 50,000 units that are unoccupied because they're uneconomical to put back on the market. Based on what their rent stabilized at and the investment needed to get them back in order, you would think that that would be a priority. We want to get those units back into the marketplace because that would help the, that would help those who need the help.

[Host 1]

So if you were advising a politician, the incoming mayor perhaps, or I'd love the opportunity to do that, what would.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

You, what would you have talked with?

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Not yet. What would be the opportunity.

[Host 1]

So what would be the suggestion to actually fill those vacant apartments?

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Oh, there's, there's a number of things we could do. Right. We could mean test for the people that live in rent stabilized apartments. There, There are incentives the city could provide to entice the builders to be able to invest the, you know, make the investments they need in each one of those apartments to make them viable since they're vacant, allow for vacancy, decontrol up to some level. I mean there's, there's a, there's a. So many common sense things that we could do probably over a dinner napkin that would get those, those apartments back online in 90 to 120 days.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

So why is this so hard?

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

You know, is it politics? It's how politics works. I Don't know. And it's a mindset, right? There's a mindset that government can do a better job than the market can do, when in fact we've learned over and over and over again here in the United States. States, the market generally is able to solve these problems and in a very efficient way, mind you.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

All right, I want to broaden out. We always do like to talk to you because you have such great exposure to small business and construction generally. How are both of those areas doing? And I'm also curious about small business as we had a story this week about PayPal looking to apply to become a bank and really tap into the small business area. It doesn't happen overnight. So I'm just curious. You laugh. Do you think that's.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

I think it's fine. You know what I find fascinating is all these companies that want to be banks because in the current regulatory environment, it's fashionable, profitable and whatever to be a.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Banks have done really well this year.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

There are other times in history when being a bank is a little bit more difficult than that. And the banking industry is not just one particular point in time. It's built to last for very, very long periods of time. And so we'll see how they like the regulatory environment at other points. So small business, small business I think is doing very, very well today. Again, the noise is out of the marketplace. People are feeling good. I think one of the biggest things we're hearing, notwithstanding some of the employment or unemployment information, is that small business having a hard time hiring qualified people to fill positions. You know, I think they're, I think they're getting their arms around what's happening with tariffs. I think they're getting their arms around whether or not there's real structural inflation in the economy. And it appears there really isn't. There's been, you know, some price setting that's been going on, but overall, the vast majority of the small to medium sized businesses that we represent at Connect One are doing quite well. And they. And they're seeing what's more important. They're seeing pipelines and backlogs that are taking them into 26, which is one of the reasons I feel so optimistic about where we're headed in 26.

[Host 1]

So let's get to. We got the environment side of this. Let's get to the actual running of the banking business. We saw an uptick this year in M and A. You mentioned a favorable regulatory environment. We saw you guys actually close on first of Long Island. That deal was announced last year Any more M and A for you in the new year?

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Listen, we've. This is, I think, our fourth or fifth transaction we've done over the 20 years that we've been in business. And we always like to say we're very opportunistic based on where we are, where the market is, what opportunities are in the marketplace. We've gone through stretches of three, four or five years at a time without any M and A. That's okay. I do think there's going to be a robust organic growth engine for us as we, as we continue to move forward. But there could be opportunities for M and A. And right now, one of the things that I think would promote that is a regulatory environment that's a little bit more favorable towards it happening. We did not have that. Well, that's when we announced the last transaction. There were only a few that were done that year.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

That's what I wanted to follow up on, is that you are in an environment that's much more favorable. So as someone who runs a bank and knows that you haven't done that many over the entire lifespan, but you're in an environment where it is much more, you know, favorable because it doesn't make you say, you know, it's not.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

So much that it makes us say it because it has to make financial sense. It has to be something that for us, you know, we can say this is a good opportunity for us to take advantage of.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Yeah.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

The better regulatory environment though, provides more opportunities because then there'll be other institutions that think they're better off if they partner with somebody. And you know, in the last three, four or five years, that hasn't been the case. Right. Many institutions are saying, hey, we don't want to take a risk here of trying to sell ourselves or partner with someone. And maybe that doesn't happen or it takes too long to happen and they hurt the franchise.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

So that's probably a no for 2026.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Well, it's hard to say.

[Host 1]

Well, just geographically, just in 20 seconds, geographically the most appealing area where you want to be where you're not.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Right now, look, we're a New York metro based institution. So that's a big market as often.

[Host 1]

So you want to grow here?

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Yeah, we want to. And as I always joke here, you know, Florida is part of that market. So I like the growth prospects here in the New York metro market. I like what's going on in Florida.

[Host 1]

Okay.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

We'd be remiss in terms of Fed policy and what we get in terms of a New Fed chair and I'm also. We did get that additional rate cut last week, Frank. You know, the bank, we said, we.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Said we were going to have a rate cut last time we were here.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Just real quickly, 30 seconds. How's the bank managing the rate back backdrop in the steeper yield curve that we're seeing?

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Just quickly.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Listen, I think it's great for banks and I think you see it, you know, in the market reaction to banks over the last 30, 45 days. Right. Bank valuations are up pretty strongly. Banks are now favored in portfolios today. I think part of it is the steepness of the yield curve and I think part of it is the optimism around the economy going into 26.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

We're still optimistic.

[Frank Sorrentino (Chairman and CEO, Connect One Bancorp)]

Yeah.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Very kind of love that.

[Odoo Advertiser]

Right.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

We could use some optimism. Frank Sorrentino, thank you. Have a great holiday.

[Host 1]

Oh you Happy New Year.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Yeah, really appreciate it. Founder, chairman, founder, chairman and chief executive officer of Connect One bank right here in our studio.

[Host 1]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen, listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Host 1]

I'm looking at shares of DJT US. It's Trump Media and Technology Group. It's the parent company of True Social. They do some crypto financial services. They're getting into nuclear fusion. It's surging today at more than 41%. The company said today will merge with TAE Technologies. It's a closely held fusion developer founded in 1998. This is a transaction valued at more than $6 billion.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

It's, it's kind of wild. Shareholders.

[Host 1]

Not on my business. My, my bingo card.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

This was not on mine either. Shareholders of each company are going to own about 50% of the combined business after the all stock deal is completed. That according to Trump Media. They put that out in a statement. We have a ton of questions about this and we knew right off the bat that we want to talk to Will.

[Host 1]

Wait, he's Bloomberg News energy reporter. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. So I got full disclosure. I had never heard of this company before 6:30am this morning. Had you ever heard of it?

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

No.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Yeah, I've heard of them.

[Host 1]

Okay. So people in the energy, people in the energy world know this company.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Yeah. Yeah. TA is one of the companies in fusion that we've been watching that's making solid progress.

[Host 1]

Solid progress. That's an important way to Put it because. Because this is unproven at this point.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Yeah. Because it's hard. Fusion's really hard. I mean, I write about nuclear fission, which moves really slow fusion. Slower than that. It's, you know, it's literally creating a little tiny star that you can find with super powerful magnets and somehow get energy out of that. So if that sounds hard. Yeah, it is hard. But TA is a company that's been. They've been at this for a long time. We've been watching them. But when I say solid progress, what that really means is nobody has done this yet. It's been demonstrated in a lab situation.

[Host 1]

Yeah.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Back in 2022 and a couple times since then. Same place. It's Lawrence Livermore in California. But no one's got a commercial system working. No one's got demo systems working. We're waiting for it.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Is it the kind of thing will that all of a sudden, like, eureka. All of a sudden they figure it out and it could happen tomorrow? No, it's more likely. It's not going to happen for fill in the blank. How many years?

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Maybe less than 10 for a couple things.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

So it's a long ways out.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

So, I mean, the company I've really been watching is called Commonwealth. They're already planning their first commercial system. They're working on it in Virginia, but they're doing all their research outside Boston. Because they came out of mit, they don't have their demo system working yet. They've been talking about reaching like this critical milestone in 2027, 2028. Ish. So like I said, no one can do this yet. But there's several companies that we think are getting close. So I put TAE on the list and they told us, you know, that they're going to start construction next year on a commercial system. I'm like, like, you're going to start building what, next year? I'd love to see it happen. It'd be great. But I have questions.

[Host 1]

Apart from the association with the president and the close ties to the president that this gives the company, what else would be in this? I don't want this combination of these two companies. Like, why would TAE do this?

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Money. They want money. In fact, they had a call this morning and their CEO said that capital is becoming one of their big challenges. And I'm like, I thought the physics and the engineering was your big challenges. But they said they get up to 300 million cash out of this right away or when the deal closes. But close to now. Ish. To start working on their Commercial system, so that's great. And they get, you know, access to the Trump media backing, so that's good for them. So there's a lot of money happening here.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

I mean, if it was so promising, why aren't other investors rushing to give them money or others? Is it just because of how long this is taking?

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

It could be. I don't know the answer to that question, but it's the right question to ask. And they've already raised like, I think a billion, three to date, which is, you know, a lot of money. But fusion takes time and takes a lot of money. There's a lot of companies, you know, working on it and they've all raised billions of dollars as well.

[Host 1]

So let's say one of these companies, maybe Tae, maybe another company, maybe Commonwealth, is able to pull this off. What is the ultimate promise and what does that look like in terms of facilities, in terms of what it does to the grid, in terms of what it does to our power bills? Okay.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

The ultimate promise is really something special. This fusion energy, it does not have the dangerous radioactive waste that you get from fission energy. So that's great. And some of the raw materials that they use for fuel, a lot of it just comes from hydrogen, so it's not as hard to get. So fusion companies will say we have the promise of abundant clean energy. I'm like, it sounds, you know, like, like a fantasy, but it's actually kind of what they're, what they're working towards. So it would be great.

[Host 1]

It's called nuclear fusion.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Yeah.

[Host 1]

Where's the, where does the nuclear part come in?

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

The process.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

The process. All right, so fission, which is what we have now, is when you have a big atom and you break it up and you get energy from, from splitting it. Fusion is the exact opposite. You take small atoms and you smoosh them together and you get energy when they fuse into something else.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

And there's no byproduct.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

I wouldn't say there's no byproduct. So some of the processes have some radioactive waste, but it's not the dangerous toxic waste like from fuel rods, you know, the old spent uranium fuel rods. It's low level waste. It's not as bad. It's not nothing. It's easier to deal with.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Is it, Is it interesting? And forgive me, I was just looking for the specifics, but I believe the administration dropped some nuclear regulation, regulations or regulatory framework this week. I mean, is it interesting? Kind of the timing on all of this? And I don't want to point fingers at anything, but it seems kind of coinky dick.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

It could be a coincidence, it could be not a coincidence. I'm not in a position to say.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

But I will say some might say it would be.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Yeah, but it's definitely true that the Trump administration is really supportive of nuclear energy. They've done a lot of executive orders and policy changes to make nuclear happen.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Is that a good thing in your view, for someone who's been following this space? Has there been too much regulatory oversight? To be fair?

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

To be fair, I hear consistently that one of the challenges for getting a nuclear power plant built is the paperwork. It's getting all the approvals. Now to be even more fair, I want a government that takes radiation seriously. But it has been something that slows the process. And especially in this country, nuclear is very, very expensive. And one of the reasons is because it takes so long to get things going. So having some of the processes streamlined, I'm in favor of that.

[Host 1]

Very briefly. Well, 10 seconds. How many nuclear plants will be brought online next year?

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Next year?

[Host 1]

Yeah.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

One that I know of.

[Host 1]

Okay, more. That's one more than this year.

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Yeah. The Palisades plant in Michigan should come back online. January, February.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Five seconds. How many are China putting online next year?

[Will (Bloomberg News Energy Reporter)]

Way more than that.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Okay. We will continue this conversation into the new year. We'll wait. Thank you so much. Happy holiday, Merry Christmas, all that good stuff. Bloomberg News Energy Reporter.

[Host 1]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily Coming up after this.

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[Bloomberg Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Host 1]

Shares of Darden Restaurants the owner of Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse climbed after the company raised its comp sales forecast. It cited better than expected growth fueled by affordable meal options and strong spending from higher income diners. Darton expects some economic pressure in the first half of next year, but Carol this could be offset by consumer spending from potential fiscal stimulus in early 2026. And beef prices are also expected to fall next year.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Hallelujah.

[Host 1]

As production increases. I mean, beef has been getting hit hard in our home. Yeah.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Michelle Cosmo is presidency of the National Restaurant Association. We're curious what she has to say. It is the trade group for the restaurant industry and she joins us from Washington, D.C. michelle, Tim just laid out really good news or some good news we should say from Darden today. We've seen mixed results though from the restaurants. It's a great read on the business community. Great read on the consumer. Sweetgreens co founder also stepping down from the struggling salad chain after the share prices dropped about 80% so far this year. Kava is down 60% from this year's highs. Chipotle is down 45% from this year's high. It doesn't sound so great. These are your members. These are, this is your community. What are you hearing from them?

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

Well, exactly what you've said in terms of such a great industry and such a great bellwether for how the economy is doing. And it really is a mixed bag. So we've seen $1.5 trillion in restaurant industry sales in 2025, which is up from last year, but not as strong as it needs to be and not as strong as we want it to be in these really tight margin businesses. And what we found is it kind of depends on, it kind of depends on what you're, how you're is and really how you're leaning into that price certainty for customers. Value matters. Price certainty really matters. And so you see that making a difference as they're also navigating all of the tariff and supply chain and beef price problems that you've just talked about.

[Host 1]

Yeah, we're going to get to some of the challenges in just a minute. So that's how your members are doing. Your members depend on consumers. From your perch, how's the consumer doing? And it's not monolithic by any means, but, but how would you describe the US Consumer right now?

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

So the US Consumer right now, I would say is very deliberate. They want to be certain about what they are spending and how they're doing it. And that's really a place where restaurants have been able to lean into some of that certainty in the offerings they have in the pricing. But it's definitely been a situation where we're not seeing as much traffic as we normally would. We always want to see those guest count numbers going up in restaurants and it hasn't been going up at the level that people want.

[Host 1]

Okay. So I just want to go through some of the Challenges. You mentioned some of the challenges. You said the tariff related challenges, the beef price challenges. What is the biggest challenge that restaurants are facing?

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

Certainty. I think with every industry and with every business, what everyone is looking for is certainty. And we certainly know that the president has an aggressive agenda to try to make a strong economy for U.S. consumers. But the lack of certainty actually creates something that feels quite the opposite. When restaurants are dealing with how to navigate different pricing, supply chain problems, problems, tariff price increases changing from day to day. That definitely gets to be a bit of a challenge for restaurants trying to serve consumers that are looking for that certainty.

[Host 1]

You know, one thing that we seem certain about is immigration. And this, this note from Torsten Slok at Apollo this morning really caught my attention. He said, he writes, From 2022 to 2024, net immigration was around 3 million people per year. The CBO forecast forecasting that annual immigration in 2025 and 2026 will be around 500,000 people. Torsten writing, quote, this has important consequences for labor supply, wage growth and housing demand. From a labor supply issue that affects your members, but also from a customer's perspective, that affects your members. Which one is harder for the restaurants in the US Right now? Is it the lack of workers from immigration that. Yeah, that feels like customers from immigration.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

That feels like a Hobson's choice. So without a doubt, the restaurant industry really cares about ensuring that we've got enough workforce to help provide that great hospitality that makes people love restaurants. And there's 988,000 open positions in restaurant and hospitality this month. So we need workers. And this is why it's been a significant issue for us to push for immigration reform. We need more legal pathways for guest worker programs, programs, more opportunities for people to come in and do this work, even as a guest worker in a legal, documented fashion. And so getting to that solution is something we're really pushing for for Congress because we need to get people in jobs in restaurants. Well, the consumers need it.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Well, big problem. That's a lot of workers that aren't. That the industry needs. Is the White House listening? Are members of Congress listening?

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

We never feel like they're listening enough on immigration. So there always seems.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

But are they listening less than maybe they were in years past recent years.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

This has been a difficult issue. In fact, some would call this the third rail in terms of issues that Congress deals with for decades, frankly. And we get close often, but we need to get it across the finish line. And so that's really what we're pushing is it's time for them to realize that it has to provide some legal pathways because we're seeing, I mean, those numbers that you're talking about with immigration coming down, I think we're going to see in 2025, in reports I've read that this will be the first year that the US Population will not have increased. And that's a significant impact on our workforce. And so we care a lot about making sure that we've got enough workers in the restaurant industry. You know, there's certainly a lot of places for technology to take jobs, but hospitality is still built on people and personal interactions. So we want those people to work in restaurants and we want obviously, a robust economy with lots of consumers that are coming in to enjoy those restaurants.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Well, you know, and I just want to go back to the speech that President Trump gave last night, the primetime speech, and he talked a lot about immigrants and immigration, but he said a lot of the immigrants and forgive me, and I should have the, the exact quote in front of me, but basically that a lot of the immigrants that are coming in are criminals and so on. What's the restaurant industry's experience with immigrants who come into the United States? And I realize there's legal, there's illegal. So I'm just but there's a lot of folks that maybe aren't legal that are in the restaurant industry that you might hear that kind of on the side. So I'm just curious about that commentary from the president and the reality of what it really is all about.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

We don't think that that commentary tells the full story. And I think we want to start with a complete agreement that people that are breaking laws, especially those laws that are hurting Americans, really aren't, you know, as illegal immigrants, certainly not a place for them here. And so creating a safe environment for Americans is really important. But there's a lot of people who are showing up every day, working hard, being reliable, taking care of their families, doing the right things, mowing their lawn, all of those things that make your neighbor somebody that is friendly and reliable that you want to see. And so this is why it's important to us that we push for more legal pathways to guest worker programs, because those people need to be in our communities contributing. And obviously we need to deal with the people that are breaking the laws. But for those people that want to work hard and show up and contribute to our economy, company let's find a place for them to do that.

[Host 1]

Beef prices still up 13% so far this year, though. They're down from the Highs that we saw in August and September of this year. We've spoken to you in the past and we've, we've talked about inflationary concerns, but it hits restaurants different because the margins are so tight. What are the biggest costs right now for your members?

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

So beef costs for sure. We're seeing a lot of fluctuation on, on seafood. One of the things that we're seeing in the data that we're trying to figure out is a lot of data is showing seafood as a protein price going down. But what our members are telling us from our survey work is that they're seeing increased seafood prices. And so there's a lot more we've got to figure out there. And I think this is a place where tariffs or the threat of tariffs is really hurting that supply chain, especially as whatever happened to be in the warehouse under a pre tariff price really starts to deplete. And so I think anytime you're looking at proteins, that's going to be a place where people are concerned. And then anytime you're looking at any kind of vegetable or produce, we want to make sure that those tariffs stay off as well. Because we can't produce in the United States the amount of produce that we consume on a regular basis. And we certainly can't produce it year round, Michelle. Not, not in D.C. in the winter.

[Host 1]

That is, that is true. And even in California doesn't, you know, satisfy the entire country or provide for the entire country. Hey, before we let you go, we got to talk about cold hard cash, specifically the penny. I was surprised on our editorial call when our producer Ari said that this is a big issue for you guys, costing your restaurants 13 to 14 million dollars monthly enforced rounding losses. Explain what's going on with the penny.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

Well, it is certainly interesting and nobody really had on our bingo card for 2025 that we would be talking about penny shortages. But for some reason that we can't quite figure out, the Fed has stopped circulating pennies. So the Federal Reserve does a really important thing by keeping money and coins circulating around the country so that we've got the right level of, of those coins and bills in the right areas and regions. And right now they're not doing that with pennies. And so we're seeing pennage shortages. And so often consumers are coming in and paying cash. In fact, I think people would be surprised to know that one in four transactions in restaurants is a cash transaction. So people are coming in paying cash and often they can't get exact change. So that's creating a difficult situation for consumers, but also that difficult situation that you cited in the 13 to 14 million dollars a year in lost revenue for restaurants.

[Lenovo Advertiser]

Wow.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

That's a real number. It's interesting. My understanding is they stopped mining them because it I think it cost more.

[Host 1]

But this is different. This is the Federal Reserve in circulation versus the US not producing them new ones.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

So they're pulling. You mean pulling them out of circulation?

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

Yeah. There are 300 million pennies that are in circulation right now in in the US and so there should be enough pennies rolling around that we can keep using pennies even though they are not mint.

[Host 1]

Have they checked the couch cushions?

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

That's mine.

[Host 1]

Or my husband's pocket or the the washing machine. That's usually where they end up.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

Pick up those pennies.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

It matter. And those single socks. Michelle, thanks so much. Michelle Cosmo, President CEO of the National Restaurant association trade group for the restaurant.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Industries this is the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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[Bloomberg Announcer]

That we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and yeah, healthy snack.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

At cvs, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So Visit [e-mail] or just come by our store.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

We can't wait to meet you.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

Store hours vary by location hey Ryan.

[Lenovo Advertiser]

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[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Of $45 for three month plan equivalent.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

To $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only.

[Host 2 (Carol Massar)]

Speed slow after 35 gigabytes if network's busy.

[Odoo Advertiser]

Taxes and fees extra.

[Michelle Cosmo (President & CEO, National Restaurant Association)]

See mintmobile.com.