US Says Talks for Full Ukraine Ceasefire to Start Immediately

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: US Says Talks for Full Ukraine Ceasefire to Start Immediately
Date: March 18, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Guests: Dr. Angela Stent (Brookings Institution), Tyler Kendall (Bloomberg White House Correspondent), Michael Stadler (Zendi), Scott Ladner (Horizon Investments), Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics), Steve Schenke (Kill Point)

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Overview

This episode centers on breaking news: the US and Russia are initiating talks toward a full ceasefire in Ukraine after a significant call between Presidents Trump and Putin. It unfolds the nuanced reactions from Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv, discussing both the geopolitical stakes and the potential economic impacts. The episode also covers the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision, the latest dynamics in global equity markets, and their implications for investors. An additional highlight explores innovation in the electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure space.

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Key Segments and Insights

1. US-Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks

[01:57–04:19]

• Carol Massar reports on the headline development: Presidents Trump and Putin had a lengthy (~90 min) call about ending the war in Ukraine.
• Putin committed to limiting attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities but stopped short of a 30-day full ceasefire.
• Tyler Kendall (White House Reporter):
  • The White House frames this as progress, though emphasizes Putin declined a US-backed 30-day ceasefire.
  • Talks are set to begin on a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, with aims for a broader agreement.
  • Russia may demand a halt to US weapon flows into Ukraine, a sticking point for the US.
  • The big open question: What security guarantees will the US provide for Ukraine post-war?
• Emily Griffin: Asks what Ukraine might have to give up for a ceasefire; tentative answer: negotiations ongoing, Ukraine wants stronger sanctions if no ceasefire comes soon.

Notable Quote:

“The White House would like to paint it as [progress]. But importantly, you mentioned there Vladimir Putin falling short of backing a 30-day ceasefire proposal.”
—Tyler Kendall [02:29]

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2. Expert Analysis: Dr. Angela Stent on Russia, Ukraine, and US Relations

[04:19–16:42]

• Dr. Angela Stent (Brookings, CFR, ex-US Intelligence):
  • Trump pressured Ukraine into agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire, but Putin hasn't reciprocated.
  • Russian and US readouts of the call differ; Russia focuses on addressing “root causes” (NATO, Ukraine’s western orientation).
  • Questions enforcement: With most of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure devastated, how will any limited ceasefire be monitored?
  • Russia has historically violated all ceasefires since Crimea’s annexation in 2014. Skepticism abounds without robust security guarantees, especially as NATO membership is off the table under Trump.
  • Europeans offer security guarantees—possibly boots on the ground—but want US backing, which remains uncertain.
  • Russia may emerge stronger, possibly acquiring more Ukrainian territory and reducing isolation.
  • Economic relations alone won’t moderate Russia; business ties did not prevent aggression in Ukraine.

Notable Quotes:

“Russia has violated every ceasefire it signed with Ukraine, certainly since the annexation of Crimea in 2014... So I think one has to be very skeptical.”
—Dr. Angela Stent [08:06]

“He (Putin) could invade again. And now he’ll be... invited back to the United States... Russia’s actually strengthened its international position in many ways while it’s been fighting this war.”
—Dr. Angela Stent [09:43]

“Militarily, it [Russia] is a superpower... Russia has always been a great power because of its military, not because of its economy.”
—Dr. Angela Stent [14:25]

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3. The State of the US Economy & the Fed Decision

[19:13–27:45]

• Fed Decision Preview
  • GDP Now index projects a Q1 contraction; inflation forecasts may push the Fed to fewer cuts in 2025.
  • Main event: The “dot plot” and expectations for future rate movements.
• Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics) & Steve Schenke (Kill Point):
  • Policymakers express willingness to stomach some short-term pain, possibly even a shallow recession, to execute longer-range economic restructuring under the new administration.
  • Debate on whether election insulation (Trump’s final term, few Senate seats up) reduces policy responsiveness.
  • Growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025, but not necessarily enter prolonged recession.

Notable Quotes:

“There is only so much sort of self-inflicted pain from... policy decisions... that the White House can really stomach before they feel some pain. But... maybe Steve is right, maybe he’s a little bit insulated.”
—Stuart Paul [23:26]

“They can do a lot of things that reduce confidence, lower industrial production, lower consumer spending. And by the time they decide they've maybe pushed too hard, they probably have already set in motion the process of the economy falling into a recession.”
—Steve Schenke [25:46]

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4. EV Charging - BYD Breakthrough and US Infrastructure Challenges

[28:13–35:11]

• Emily Griffin & Michael Stadler (Zendi CTO):
  • BYD in China debuts EVs that can “charge almost as fast as it takes to refuel a regular car.”
  • Stadler sees this as a game-changer but a grid challenge: scaling rapid charging puts major stress on US utilities.
  • Zendi’s business: software and engineering for planning distributed microgrids and local generation to support high-density EV charging.
  • Market demand remains strong despite US EV sales slowdown; microgrid business is growing across diverse sectors (Walmart, Bloom Energy, academic institutions).

Notable Quotes:

“It’s very cool to add 250 miles in five minutes. But it also creates a challenge for the distribution system... it will be really a huge challenge for the utility system.”
—Michael Stadler [29:57]

“Almost 30% of all the people shopping around for new cars are still considering electric vehicles... I’m on my fourth electric vehicle and would never go back to a gas car.”
—Michael Stadler [32:12]

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5. Markets: Global Equity Rotation and Investment Strategy

[37:59–45:14]

• Fund managers are slashing US equity holdings at record pace; global rotators find value in Europe and China.
• Scott Ladner (Horizon Investments):
  • Trump’s policies have pushed Europe and China into market-friendly policies (fiscal expansion, economic stimulus).
  • US investors have been punished for diversification, but the tide may be turning for “a quarter or two”—US stocks may be undervalued after fund outflows, but don't expect outperformance until late 2025 or 2026.
  • Tariffs are ultimately deflationary (act as a tax, could dampen growth), and unpredictability in policy is stalling capital investment and M&A.

Notable Quotes:

“The slashing of the holdings in the US makes a little bit of sense though... Trump has kind of bullied [Europe and China] into changing those things. And that's actually to the benefit of equity markets in those geographies.”
—Scott Ladner [39:23]

“If you can't plan, you can't invest. If you can't plan, you can't act. Like nobody can plan in an environment in which we don’t really understand what the operating principles are going to be for this administration.”
—Scott Ladner [42:52]

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Memorable Moments

• Questioning Putin’s Intentions:
  “Is there ever really any guarantee that President Putin won’t try to invade Ukraine or another country again?” —Carol Massar [07:46]
• The Skeptical Security Guarantee:
  “Without very robust security guarantees, there’s absolutely no reason to believe that Russia wouldn’t try and invade Ukraine again.” —Dr. Angela Stent [08:06]
• Tariffs: Inflationary or Deflationary?
  “Tariffs are inflationary, tariffs are deflationary ... tariffs at the end of day are still a tax, and taxes are growth retardant and growth retardant things tend to be deflationary over time.” —Scott Ladner [44:12]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 01:57 – White House update on Trump-Putin calls and Ukraine negotiations
• 05:10 – Dr. Angela Stent’s analysis of the ceasefire and US-Russia dynamics
• 19:13 – Upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and economic outlook
• 28:13 – EV charging innovation & infrastructure with Michael Stadler
• 37:59 – Market sentiment: US outflows, investment strategy with Scott Ladner

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Tone and Style

• Analytical, measured, occasionally skeptical (especially regarding Putin and Russia).
• Balanced between realpolitik and cautious optimism on diplomatic progress.
• Provides both macroeconomic context and practical investment guidance.
• Adds technical detail (especially in the EV segment) while keeping discussion accessible for a general audience.

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Takeaways

• The recent US push for a Ukraine ceasefire signals diplomatic movement but faces major hurdles—security guarantees and Russian intentions remain acute concerns.
• Economic uncertainty persists: the Fed is likely to signal patience, and the policy direction under Trump’s second term is expected to be less responsive to short-term pain.
• Market participants are shifting allocations abroad, but contrarians may find US equities attractively priced in coming quarters.
• Technology advances in EVs could transform the market—but only if US infrastructure can adapt fast enough.

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For listeners: This episode delivers nuanced, real-time analysis of some of the most consequential geopolitical and economic events of early 2025, from the fate of Ukraine to the outlook for American markets and innovation in clean tech.

Transcript

[Carol Massar]

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[Tim Stenovec]

Business Week insight from the reporters and editors that bring you America's most trusted business magazine plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg businessweek podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Radio.

[Steve Schenke]

Did.

[Carol Massar]

Mention our big story at this hour. President Trump and President Putin of Russia speaking today in a long phone call about 90 minutes on how to bring an end to the Russia Ukraine wall. President Putin committed to limit Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy assets, but did decline to agree to a broader 30 day cease fire as the United States had sought. With more let's head to the White House and to Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall. She's there on the lawn of the White House. Tyler, is this a step forward to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine?

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, Carol, the White House would like to paint it as such. But importantly, you mentioned there Vladimir Putin falling short of backing a 30 day cease fire proposal that the US had been hoping for. Importantly, that White House readout goes on to say that negotiations will start for a maritime cease fire on the Black Sea, followed hopefully by talks for a full ceasefire and then a more permanent peace Importantly, I just want to point out that the last time Zelinsky was here at the White House, that Oval Office meeting devolved. He then went to Europe and presented to our European allies a similar path that he wanted to see a cease fire in the sea and the sky as he called it. You know, Bloomberg News had been reporting that Russia might have been trying to slow roll these negotiations. Earlier this morning, breaking the headline that Vladimir Putin would like to see a halt of all weapon flows into Ukraine or at least according to sources from familiar the halt of US Weapon flows into Ukraine. It remains to be seen if that is something this White House would really get behind considering just last week it did reverse its own halt on US Military assistance and intelligence sharing in order to get Ukraine to sign on to this 30 day peace proposal. Carol, just quickly still a big questions, particularly considering that this readout does say that both countries want a lasting peace. That is raising questions about what that really looks like considering that we know that our European allies and Ukraine have been asking this White House what sort of firmer security guarantees they are willing to provide.

[Emily Griffin]

Hey Tyler, just very brief briefly, 15 seconds. Do we know what Ukraine would be giving up in exchange for the cease fire?

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, that really remains to be seen at this point. They have said that they are willing to negotiate, but they need Russia to also come to the table. Ukraine has asked the US to ramp up sanctions if they do not get this 30 day cease fire into effect as quickly as possible.

[Carol Massar]

All right, we're going to leave it on that note. Hey Tyler, thank you so much. Tyler Kendall, Bloomberg News reporter there on the lawn of the White House. All right, let's stay with this story because back with us for someone to share her expertise on Russia. Its Longtime leader is Dr. Angela Stent. She's senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a former national Intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council and she's also the author of Putin's World Russia against the west and with the rest, which I am guessing she is probably working on updating. She joins us from Washington D.C. Dr. Stent, always good to have you with Tim and myself. First of all, I'm just curious about the optics of how we got to today and whether or not you see this, this conversation and the headlines that we have seen out of this conversation between President Trump and President Putin. Is this progress? Is this a step forward?

[Dr. Angela Stent]

So the way we go. Thank you for having me on. Again, the way we got here is right. The President Trump said during the campaign that he was going to end this war in 24 hours. It would never have started had he been president at the time. It took a little more than 24 hours to get this, this particular phone call with Putin, although we know that he had previous ones after his election. And so he got the Ukrainians by putting pressure on them to agree to a 30 day total cease fire. And that's what he said he wants from the Russians. I've just been reading the Russian readout, the Kremlin's readout of the talks. It's a little different from the one that we got from the US Side. And it mentions that Trump asked Putin for a cease fire on hitting energy and infrastructure targets. And it said that, you know, Putin was favorably inclined to win. It didn't actually necessarily say that he agreed with it. And a lot of it had to do with the restoration of U.S. russian relations. And apparently they're going to organize hockey games between Russia and the United States. But the thing that's most notable in the Russian one, and I think your correspondent already alluded to it, is that Putin saying that they have to get to the fundamental causes, the root causes of why this war broke out. And that's going to go right back to Naito, to Ukraine wanting to be part of the west, and to Putin essentially saying that can't happen. So I will be curious to see how this works out. I'd also like to know how they're going to enforce this very limited but still important cease fire. Don't forget, Russia has destroyed 70% of Ukraine's electricity production during this war. How are they going to monitor this and then what comes after it?

[Emily Griffin]

But Angela, does it seem like to you that it is indeed the beginning of the end of this war?

[Dr. Angela Stent]

It may be. I think it's certainly the beginning of the US And Russia establish reestablishing relations. And we've heard that from President Trump. Is it a big, Is it the beginning of the end of this war? I'm still, I think the jury's out on that. I think we have to see how long Putin drags out the negotiations before he agrees to a total cease fire. And again, he hasn't really shown that he's interested in ending this war anytime soon. He's much more interested in restoring these relations with the US and ending his isolation.

[Carol Massar]

That's interesting. The other thing I wonder, Angela, and something that we've talked about with you before, I mean, are there ever really any guarantees that President Putin won't try to invade Ukraine or another country again. And how does the outcome of this negotiate, negotiation for an end to the war, kind of determine the likelihood of that happening again?

[Dr. Angela Stent]

So, as President Zelensky, unfortunately for him, pointed out in the Oval Office when he then got the president, the vice president, very angry with him, Russia has violated every ceasefire it signed with Ukraine, certainly since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. And Russia has also violated every treaty it signed with Ukraine since its independence. So I think one has to be very skeptical. And this is, of course, why President Zelensky, again, unfortunately for him in the Oval Office, wanted to talk about security guarantees. Because without very robust security guarantees, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Russia wouldn't try and invade Ukraine again. The best security guarantee we know would be Ukraine joining Naito. That's been taken off the cards now by the Trump administration, but it needs these guarantees. And the Europeans, the French, the British and other European countries have said they're willing to provide security guarantees, boots on the ground, to be a stabilizing force, stabilization force, once the war ends. But they say they need American backup for this. And that's something which the Trump administration has not committed itself to.

[Emily Griffin]

Angela, let's say this is the beginning of the end of the war, and it does end. What does Russia look like on the other side of this? Is, is it stronger or weaker than it was? Is it more? Is Putin more emboldened than he was pre invasion?

[Tim Stenovec]

Yes.

[Dr. Angela Stent]

So what it looks like is, I mean, the economy is not in good shape, and it's going to get worse the longer this war goes on for Putin. So if the war ends, that would. And obviously, if the sanctions are removed, which they would be, if the war ends at some point, then that would be very beneficial for Putin. But, yes, he comes out of this looking stronger. He invaded another country and provoked. And presumably, I mean, we have to see, if Ukraine has to make territorial concessions to Russia, he will then, you know, have taken 20% of Ukraine. And unless there are these very robust security guarantees, he could invade again. And now he'll be in, you know, he'll be invited back to the United States. Maybe the Europeans won't want to deal with him for any time soon, but Russia's actually strengthened its international position in many ways while it's been fighting this war.

[Carol Massar]

You know, I think about something Tim brought up, and it just reminded us, was it a debate where Mitch Romney said he was asked, you know, I guess, are the candidates, was it 2008 or before that, 12 2012. And what was the biggest, right. What was the biggest concern or national security concern for the United States? He said Russia and was kind of laughed off the stage. But is there some credibility in Angela, in President Trump trying to create some kind of economic cooperation or more economic cooperation between the US And Russia to create a different future and relationship with Russia going forward? And is there some good to that?

[Dr. Angela Stent]

Well, in the 1990s, there were a lot of American firms that were very active in Russia. Energy companies, large firms, small firms. They were making money and they were doing quite well. And yet the political relationship between the US And Russia was very difficult. There were a couple of high points after 9, 11, when the U.S. and Russia with Putin, you know, worked together in terms of the beginning of the US Campaign in Afghanistan. Also, I should point out that there were thousands of American business people in Ukraine when Russia invaded. That didn't stop Russia from invading. So, of course, there are arguments to build up economic ties with Russia, but I think history shows us and even the experience of the last 30 years, Putin always likes to separate economics from politics. And you can have a good or a strong economic relationship with Russia. And it doesn't seem to have that much impact on what Russia does politically or militarily, particularly under Putin.

[Emily Griffin]

You know, I asked what Russia would look like after this, but what about Ukraine? Because this is a country that three years ago we were talking to you and so many other people thought this war would be over just in a matter of hours, a matter of days, a matter of weeks. But look what Ukraine has been able to do to defend itself. What does Ukraine look like on the other side?

[Dr. Angela Stent]

Well, you know, on the good side, Ukraine now has the strongest and largest army in Europe. It's developed very sophisticated tech, technical, technological capabilities. It's been using electronic warfare. It's much more sophisticated than that. On the other hand, of course, its economy has suffered greatly and, you know, it's had cities and villages obliterated by the Russians. So it's going to need an enormous amount of economic assistance and investment if it is to recover. It's also lost a large number of soldiers, we don't quite know. But I think for both Ukraine and Russia, it's in the hundreds of thousands. And, and it also has millions of Ukrainians are now living abroad because of the war. They need to come back and they need to help rebuild the country. So economically, it's, it's, you know, in very poor shape. Even though other aspects, militarily, it's better off, but it will still be in a very fragile state at the end of the war.

[Carol Massar]

Angela, you know, I was thinking about this a lot, like, what is the relationship between President Putin and President Trump? And I know we've talked with you about this before. And what is it? You know, is it. Is Russia great power? Is it a great economy? You already referenced that. It wasn't their businesses, their alliances, their leadership. I mean, is it an economic and political model to emulate? I'm asking a little bit facetiously, but I'm trying to understand, you know, why there is this relationship.

[Dr. Angela Stent]

Well, it's not an economic model to emulate, because it's essentially a hydrocarbon exporter. It doesn't have a very modern economy. You know, I always, when I teach my students, I say, tell me how many products in your home are from China and how many from Russia? Well, you know the answer to that. There are many of them from China. They're none from Russia. So earns a lot of money by selling hydrocarbons. But it doesn't have really a modern economy. It has a shrinking population. It has a major demographic problem. And it's had that ever since the fall of the Soviet Union and even before that. But militarily, it is a superpower, and that's in history. Russia has always been a great power because of its military, not because of its economy. And so it is, you know, I think, the largest nuclear power. The US And Russia, the two nuclear superpowers, the Russians have more warheads than we do. And so in that sense, it's a great power. And because of the hydrocarbons and of course, its location, it's the largest country in the world sitting astride Europe and Asia. So it has many strong endowments, but it economically, it really does need to modernize.

[Emily Griffin]

Hey, just 30 seconds left, Dr. Sten. It does raise the question, though, how the rest of the world keeps Putin in check, given the strength of its military and given his ambitions. How does that happen?

[Dr. Angela Stent]

Well, we know that he has ambitions that go beyond Ukraine, and that's why the Europeans are very worried about it. And now you see France offering, you know, a nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe. You see some European countries, even Poland, talking about should they acquire nuclear weapons.

[Tim Stenovec]

So.

[Dr. Angela Stent]

So this is one of the impacts of this, of this brutal war is at least country countries in Europe reminding themselves that they're still vulnerable to a potential Russian invasion. And some of them are talking about the possibility of a war with Russia within the next five years.

[Carol Massar]

Bottom line, 10 seconds. This is a good this is a good move. This is some progress.

[Dr. Angela Stent]

On the call. Yes, it is. I mean, hopefully if they implement this first cease fire, of course. It's a good move.

[Carol Massar]

All right. My guess is we're going to be coming back to you a lot more still on this and we so appreciate that we can Angela, thank you so much. Dr. Angela Stent, senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and her book author of Putin's World. Be sure to check it out. Pinpointing the genetic changes that predispose us to disease Identifying the roots of mental illness Treating congenital anomalies even before birth At Boston Children's Hospital, we're investing in children's health today to ensure the well being of adults tomorrow. As home to the world's largest pediatric research enterprise and more than 260 specialty programs, Boston Children's is where the world comes for answers.

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[Carol Massar]

One of the things we want to talk about is, of course, the upcoming Fed decision tomorrow. We did see the Federal Reserve bank of Atlanta's GPT G GDP now index suggesting U.S. gross domestic product will retract 1.76%. So a negative 1.76% in the first quarter versus a minus 2.06% in its previous release on March 17th. So you've got that going on. Meantime, U.S. treasury Secretary Scott Bessett, well, he doesn't seem too worried about US Growth. He spoke on FOX Business this morning.

[Tim Stenovec]

The underlying economy is healthy. There is no reason we have to have a recession. Can we have a pause as we go from this incredible level of government spending, which is just unsustainable?

[Carol Massar]

That, of course, is U.S. treasury Secretary Scott Bessen earlier today on Fox Business. So let's get into it, the U.S. economy, tomorrow's Fed decision. Back with Tim and me is Dr. Stephen Schenke, Chief economist adviser at the Wealth Advisor, I should say chief economist at the Wealth Advisor kill point. He's also a former US treasury and White House National Security Council staff member. He's out there there in Washington, D.C. then right here in our New York studio is Bloomberg Economics U.S. economist Stuart Paul. Hey, Stuart, I want to start with you. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this week. Is tomorrow's decision really all about the dot plot?

[Verizon Business Voice]

Is mostly about the dot plot. And beyond what we actually get from the median FOMC members expectations for the path of interest rates, we're also going to get a few clues about what they expect for the economy and what's going to be guiding their interest rate decision. So we're also probably going to see a downward revision of their expectations for 2025 growth. And we're also probably going to see an upward revision of their estimates for core PCE inflation for the year ahead. And between the two of those, the question is what ends up dominating? Is it the cooler growth that will lead to more rate cuts? Is it the higher inflation that will keep them on hold? We're expecting the median dot to still show two cuts in the year ahead. But if anything, the distribution of dots we think will be skewed to fewer cuts this year because of that uptick in inflation expectations.

[Emily Griffin]

Steve, is that the focus for you to the dot plot? Is that what you're focused on as well?

[Steve Schenke]

Certainly it is because it it gives us some better understanding of what they're thinking about. That's sort of the first step. And then what Chair Powell says in his press conference, they've had a lot of disparate information in the various Federal Reserve bank branches and it'll be interesting to see how that gets reflected in the board members expectations.

[Carol Massar]

Well, I guess one of the interesting things too is, and you know, let me ask you Steve, we just know the Treasury Secretary is kind of interesting, you know, saying the underlying economy is healthy, no reason that we should have a recession and yet nobody's really ruling it out. Right? Can you ever really rule out a recession?

[Steve Schenke]

Certainly not. Because while the economy came into this year very strong and even, even today with you know, slower than trend growth in retail sales and all of the negative consumer sentiment that has been causing consumers to pull back in their spending, the economy is still robust, the labor market is strong and, and yes there's changes at the margin but it would take a lot to, to tip the economy into recession. But at the same time, and I think this is what frightens markets the most, is that the President, his Treasury Secretary, his Commerce Secretary have all said that basically they're okay if the, the market is down and if we tip into a recession, they're not worried about it because their larger plan is to, to reset, reboot, rebuild, recalibrate the economy. And they seem to be willing to accept that as a, as a necessary cost if that should happen.

[Dr. Angela Stent]

I just get, I just got to.

[Carol Massar]

Say as you're saying this about, I'm seeing Stuart kind of smile a little bit. Stuart, you're smiling. Why?

[Verizon Business Voice]

Well, because I think that policymakers, even in the White House, they do care about economic outcomes. Of course they say that there is going to be a bit of an economic realignment. But if we think back to past preced, we saw George W. Bush inheriting in the first term the bursting of the tech bubble. We saw Obama inheriting the global financial Crisis S&P 500 in the first, let's say 100 days that they were in office was off at Most probably about 15%. There is only so much that sort of self inflicted pain from policy decisions, policy announcements, tariff imposit tariffs being imposed and then being walked back that the White House can really stomach before they feel some pain. The key difference of course would be that was Bush's first term, Obama's first term, they were running for reelection. If Trump is seeing this truly as his last term and not part of some broader MAGA movement, maybe Steve is right, maybe he's a little bit insulated. I think that policymakers tend to be responsive to public sentiment. I think that they tend to be responsive to voters. And when you only have let's say, for example, three seats in the Senate that are going to be up in 2026. I think that, yeah, I think that it's probably a closer call than it might sound. They might be more responsive than you're suggesting.

[Emily Griffin]

So what do you, what are you saying, Stuart? Are you saying that policymakers will continue to be responsive or they have this insulation because the president is not up for reelection and there aren't that many Senate seats that are coming up either.

[Verizon Business Voice]

I think that they're saying that they're going to be, they're going to be less responsive than they have been historically. I think that there will come a point in time, time where we do get a little bit less rhetoric out of the White House and a little bit more of a reaction to both the printed data and financial market activity. Carol very wisely noted that the Fed, the Atlanta Fed's GDP now cast looks pretty dismal for the first quarter. We don't think that it's going to be quite that bad. But printing, let's say, an annualized pace of half of 1% in the president's first term, the president's first quarter of this term in office is not going to be something that's easy to brush off from a public sentiment perspective or from a markets perspective.

[Emily Griffin]

Steve, you worked in government, your former U.S. treasury and White House National Security Council staff member. What do you make of what Stewart is saying with regard to the responsiveness of policymakers?

[Steve Schenke]

Well, the story that they're telling right now and that the president is telling in his Cabinet, just sort of marches in step with him, is that is that there is going to be pain, there is going to be adjustment, and he's willing to take that. I think what's different this time, and I don't disagree with Stuart, that that the White House and congressional policymaking offices, elected officials are sensitive and they, they don't want to get hoisted. But, but I think what's different is that this president sees this as his last opportunity to do some things that will, in his opinion, remake the economy into a better place for the future. And anytime you do that, that's going to cause disruption and in fact, a lot of it. Now the other thing that I think we have to be careful about is that they can do a lot of things that reduce confidence, lower industrial production, lower consumer spending. And by the time they decide they've maybe pushed too hard, they probably have already set in motion the process of the economy falling into a recession.

[Carol Massar]

Well, and we know we've heard, we've heard from the administration officials. It's like, okay, we're going to do this and then we're going to get the tax cuts and then, you know, it's the reverse of the first time around. I mean, Stewart, he is said to be remaking the economy, but there is pain. And if he gets it wrong, could we see something problematic and maybe a longer standing recession? Just got about 30 seconds.

[Verizon Business Voice]

We're not expecting so much of a long standing recession. We're expecting about 1 1/2% full year growth for 2025. That's still about half the pace that we, that we saw printed in each of the last two years, a bit more than half of that. So not really a long standing recession. But it's not exactly something that's going to bolster your voting base and it's not something that you can take into the midterms with, with a lot of.

[Carol Massar]

Confidence, not growth, at least for a little bit or less growth. Guys, thank you so much. Steve Schenke over at Kill Point and of course, Bloomberg Economics U.S. economist Stuart Paul.

[Tim Stenovec]

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.

[Emily Griffin]

Well, it is time for another edition of Bloomberg, plugged in your weekly look at EVs. Emily Griffin, I talked about this yesterday when it was one of the most read stories in the Bloomberg terminal. And it's certainly worth revisiting because BYD shares jumped to a record after the Chinese automaker unveiled a lineup of EVs that it says can charge almost as fast as it takes just to refuel a regular car. Being able to charge a car in the time it takes a combustion engine to vehicle to pull in and out of a gas station could be a game changer. It could convince drivers who aren't willing to make lengthy stops to actually go electric. Curious what Michael Stadler thinks about this. He's the CTO and co founder of Zendi. It makes software that helps design EV infrastructure. He joins us from San Diego. Michael, I want to get your reaction to this BYD news in a second, but I got to tell you, I described your company as making software that helps to design EV structure infrastructure. Did I get that right? Because I had a heck of a time finding exactly what your company does.

[Michael Stadler]

Well, I mean, of course we do electric vehicles and thanks for having me. Good afternoon. But we do A little bit more than electric vehicles. We do also micro grids. And I think that's what we are discussing maybe today on how we charge these electric vehicles.

[Emily Griffin]

Okay, so you're watching closely the different types of EV charging systems, the different types of batteries. What do you make of this BYD news? Because look here in the US we're not going to be driving these vehicles anytime soon, I assume unless the President decides to change the way that rules are structured around importing Chinese EVs. But if this is indeed something that can be done, it's a game changer for EVs.

[Michael Stadler]

No, no, it's very cool. And I, I also read it today. It's very cool to add 250 miles in 50 in five minutes. But it also creates a challenge for the distribution system and the infrastructure because you have to provide that power. And if you think about that, a lot of these cars around, then it will be really a huge challenge for the utility system. And I think that's where the problem, where the challenge starts with charging all these electric vehicles at that time.

[Carol Massar]

So Michael, tell us how your system works. And I'm just curious kind of where you are in this process in terms of acquiring customers, putting it to work. Give us some kind of size and scope.

[Michael Stadler]

Yeah, so we are softer company, as you guys said, and engineering company and we help our clients putting the infrastructure in place which is needed to provide this high power. I mean the utilities for example, I mean they have huge challenges to provide this power. I mean it can take seven to 10 years to upgrade the distribution system to provide this power. Right. So this is why we help our clients to design, plan, install and run so called microgrids, which is basically co generation at the place where you charged electric vehicles.

[Emily Griffin]

So who are your customers right now?

[Michael Stadler]

Well, I mean we have a diverse portfolio here. I mean of course they are engineering companies installing this infrastructure to provide the power. But there's also of course fleet management providers who really want to implement electric vehicle trucks and all this. So it's it. Yeah, we have multiple clients here, but mostly engineering companies installing micro infrastructure, micro grids and infrastructures.

[Emily Griffin]

How has business been given the challenge that we've seen over the last couple of years for American companies to sell EVs. The idea that they've gotten a little too expensive for consumers. The demand that a lot of these American companies thought would be there. Look what happened with Ford, look what happened to gm. Even Tesla is seeing a sales decline this year. What, what is your demand been like? Has it held Steady or has it been affected by what customers are doing?

[Michael Stadler]

Well, actually it's steady. Yes. Of course there's uncertainty currently in the market, but I mean, almost 30% of all the people shopping around for new cars are still considering electric vehicles. Because electric vehicles are fun to drive, they are cheaper. I mean, I mean, I'm on my fourth electric vehicle and it would never go back to a gas car. Right. So no, fast. The market is stable and it's, it's actually increasing.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, so give us a little idea. We are Bloomberg, as we always like to throw out there. Give us an idea. I know we've been asking about customers. We are on your website. Walmart, Bloom Energy, Generac, you've got some academic universities, asu, us, San Diego, Georgia Tech, but there's a lot of other companies. It sounds like you guys are doing a lot of research with folks. But give us a little bit more idea of, of where the business is and the growth that you are seeing. Whether it's top line. I'm assuming you're not profitable yet, or is that. We are.

[Michael Stadler]

But the thing is we are really rooted in research because what we are offering is a methodology which really helps you to install infrastruct, meaning generators, natural gas generators, batteries, renewables at the place where you charge your electric vehicle or where you need the power for a microwave. We call this microwave.

[Dr. Angela Stent]

Right.

[Michael Stadler]

And that can be a technical, challenging process and it needs to be standardized so that you can do this really quickly and at an efficient cost. Right. And this is why we still do a lot of research and we at the, the cutting edge of research also when it comes to new technologies. And this is why we're working with universities, because we don't have only this power problem on the electric vehicle side. I mean, if you think about data centers, right. You also want to get a lot of power now from the utility system. And they're talking about small modular reactors these days. So we have to research all these technologies and bring them in our software platform to provide this to our clients to efficient plan goes micro grids.

[Emily Griffin]

Hey Michael, in terms of infrastructure here, what is this administration meant for your business? Certainly he's close with Elon Musk, but that hasn't really helped the EV industry. He wants to roll back these tax credits. Does that affect your business?

[Michael Stadler]

So far it hasn't affected us because I think it's, I mean, we, I mean, as I said, electric vehicles are for real and they're not going away. Right. And the project takes the projects that we are seeing could take a year, two years or whatever it is. So you're not just canceling them because of the uncertainty that we're seeing right now. So so far we actually have a nice growth in the micro space which is not only the electric vehicle space and we actually doing better than last year.

[Emily Griffin]

Michael Stadler going to have to leave it there. Thanks for joining us. Do appreciate it. CTO and Co Founder of Zendy joining.

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[Carol Massar]

I'm driving in my car.

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[Tim Stenovec]

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[Verizon Business Voice]

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[Carol Massar]

All right, tick tock, everybody. We've got just about 18 minutes to go until we see the closing bell. Here are the closing bell on Wall Street. Busy little Tuesday. Charlie and Bill Maloney just breaking down the trade here, but we are off our lows of the session, but still down about 1.6% on the NASDAQ 100 and down about 1% on the S and P. Tim, one of the stories that was really interesting to me reading in is what investors are up to. Slashing holdings of US equities by the most on record. That was, according to B of a latest survey, underscoring the massive rotation that's underway in global markets. So we saw fund managers reported being about 23% underweight in U.S. stocks. And Tim, I think that was a plunge of about 40 percentage points from the previous survey. Wow.

[Emily Griffin]

It's a dramatic shift and it shows just how quickly traders have ditched their optimism about American markets with the S&P 500 tumbling just about 8% from an all time high back in February. Let's see what our drive to the close guest has to say about this. We've got Scott Ladner with US CIO at the RIA Horizon Investments. They've got about $10 billion in a joining us this afternoon. Hey, Scott, good to have you on the program. I'm curious what you make of this bank of America survey. Is this a sign that it could be kind of contrarian that it's a time to buy that so many investors have slashed their holdings?

[Tim Stenovec]

Well, Tim, yeah, I think actually that there is some truth in that. I mean, the slashing of the holdings in the US Makes a little bit of sense though. Look, Trump, if Trump has done one thing, he is basically bullied, slash scared both Europe and China into actions that they probably wouldn't otherwise have taken. So, you know, with respect to Europe, you know, getting off the debt break and basically starting to spend money from a fiscal standpoint for the first time since really 2012, it can be game changing for, for the revenue for some of those companies. And then when you pivot over to China and you know, they're clearly worried about what you know what Trump's terror policy, trade policy is going to do to their already somewhat weak economy? And you've seen Xi pivot off of common prosperity. And so, you know, these, these two moves, you know, which are really, really holding down the equity values in both China and Europe, you know, Trump has kind of bullied them into changing those things. And that's actually to the benefit of, you know, equity holding, equity markets, and those two geographies, which are almost uninvestable for much of the last decade.

[Emily Griffin]

Yeah, I mean, the S&P 500 outperformance of the rest of the world has just been remarkable. But what does that do to US Investors that buy US Companies here? If we're seeing outperformance outside of the US I mean, is that going to continue, given what we've heard from the White House and what we've heard from advisers, that essentially they're not necessarily paying attention to the markets right now and that with time they will recover?

[Tim Stenovec]

So I think actually it makes the case for US equities more compelling, but not probably for another quarter or two. So, you know, you know, this is, this is a time when, you know, frankly, in the last five years, diversification has been nothing but punished. So you've done anything other than invest in the Max 7 or the top of the US market, you and your benchmark that really, anything you've gotten greened. And so, Ben, you know, you've just been, you've been punished by, by diversifying the last few months. And probably for the next couple of quarters, we think you're actually going to be benefited by, by, from diversification. And so, you know, this is a, this is a time when we're going to see some pretty good buying opportunities for U.S. stocks. I mean, we're getting some of these things at a bigger deal than we would have otherwise had because folks are rotating out of us and into these other markets. We think that's probably more of a trade, but maybe a trade that can go on for a quarter or two, not for a year or two.

[Carol Massar]

So you don't think, okay, so you still think US will ultimately outperform by the end of the year versus European markets or not necessarily, not necessarily for.

[Tim Stenovec]

The end of 2025. Right. I mean, Europe and China have pretty big leads right now. So, like, in terms of, like, making up those leads. Don't know if we get there. But, but as we kind of entering into 2026, when some of the, you know, some of these fairly challenging things that Trump's doing Right now with respect to the, you know, sort of the ideological shifts, you know, those might actually have a chance to start paying some dividends on the deregulatory front or the taxes front or some of these other things by the time we turn the calendar into next year. So, you know, I think there probably are some opportunities, but I'm not sure if us is going to catch them this year.

[Carol Massar]

Are you worried at all about a recession? And do you buy the argument that we get from the administration that, all right, guys, it's going to be a little tough, we could get have some economic pain, maybe a recession, maybe not. Nobody seems to want to kind of throw their hat into that ring definitively, it seems. But do you buy that idea that tariffs now, tax cuts later and that and maybe regulatory moves and that will be an engine for economic growth?

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah, I do buy that. And now we are clearly experiencing somewhat a growth slowdown because everybody just, you know, we're kind of entering a M and a slowdown.

[Carol Massar]

Like, I'm seeing a lot of stories where companies are like, nope, you know, it's, it's. We thought we'd be doing a lot of deals and we're not.

[Tim Stenovec]

Well, look, if you can't plan, you can't invest. If you can't plan, you can't act. Like nobody can plan. In an environment in which we don't really understand what the operating principles are going to be for this administration, we have some clues, we have some direction. You know, we don't know sort of the direction of these things, but we know nobody knows anything about the specifics of how, you know, how we're going to prosecute some of these policies. And so that's until we get some of that detail. And we, and we will get it. I mean, it's not. We're never going to have it. Like, we will get it at some point, but until we get it, it's going to be. It's just a really tough operating environment, whether you're a consumer, an investor or a business owner.

[Carol Massar]

Well, okay, so what do you do then in terms of. For investors? Is it. Do you put new money into equities? We've talked about equities, you know, being cut back. Would you put new money into US Stocks to overseas stocks, or would you play the fixed income world?

[Tim Stenovec]

Definitely not play the fixed income world. So you look, we think yields are probably about in the right place right now.

[Carol Massar]

You do?

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah. And so, you know, the yield drop makes sense in the context of, you know, tariffs, which everybody thinks Tariffs are inflationary, Tariffs are deflationary, you know.

[Carol Massar]

Yes and no. I would argue with you because if you are putting tariffs on products that come in, that obviously raises their costs unless somebody eats them. But it also gives an opportunity for domestic producers to say, well, those prices are higher, I can raise my prices. There is some of that argument as well.

[Tim Stenovec]

There absolutely is. You're right, Carol. But I would just argue that tax, you know, tariffs at the end of day are still a tax and taxes are growth retardant and growth retardant things are tend to be deflationary over time. So probably it's not. Again, not a 2025 deflation story. Like that's not, that's not what I'm trying to say. But, but as far as like going forward, if we're looking at like a 10 year yield, 10 year yields, going to care a lot more about tariffs are a good idea, I think if you can get. So no, okay, simply no. But, but, but there's a caveat to that though, which is important. I don't think that people in the market are pricing this the state of the world. So let me give you a state of the world which I think could.

[Carol Massar]

Exist and just got about 45 seconds.

[Tim Stenovec]

So the state world that could exist. That would be interesting, would be if the reciprocal idea kind of takes hold and other countries actually lower tariffs on the U.S. right. You might end up in a regime where you have lower global tariffs overall. Like that would be a pretty big boost to global growth that I don't think is in the market right now. But I'm not saying that's necessarily the base case, but that is a state of the world that that is possible if under the sort of reciprocal tariff agreement where like, hey, we just want everybody to pay for the same rate.

[Carol Massar]

All right, we will certainly see. Makes for an interesting investing year. No doubt about it. Got to leave it there. But thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Scott Ladner, he's chief investment officer of Horizon Investments. As we mentioned, They've got about $10 billion in assets under management. Joining us right here in our Bloomberg and Interactive Broker studio.

[Emily Griffin]

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast.

[Tim Stenovec]

Available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

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