Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: US Stocks Limp Into Year End While Treasury Yields Rise
Air Date: December 31, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec

Episode Overview

This end-of-year episode focuses on the state of U.S. stocks as 2025 closes, the rise in Treasury yields, and the broader implications for investors heading into 2026. Featured segments include an in-depth analysis of alternative investments and passive market dynamics with Mike Green (Simplify Asset Management), a review of retail trends and consumer behavior with Laura Champine (Tabor Asset Management), critical discussions on the AI investment landscape with Manos Kukumides (umi), and a look at the “media wars” for Hollywood’s future with Ross Gerber (Gerber Kawasaki).

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Alternative Investments and Market Trends

Guest: Mike Green, Portfolio Manager & Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management
Timestamps: 03:04 – 10:30

Trends in Alt Investing

• Alternative ETFs, especially in managed futures and trend-following, have surged since regulatory changes circa 2020.

• Investors are increasingly looking beyond the traditional bond/equity mix for diversification and income.

  Mike Green:

  “One of the trends has been really critical … the alternative ETF space, which really didn’t emerge until 2020... managed futures, trend-following... as people look to diversify from the traditional bond/equity mix.” (03:37)

• There’s heightened demand for income through derivative strategies like call overwriting, put selling, and hedged high-yield credit funds, given uncertainty in the economy’s 2026 outlook.

Ongoing Success of Momentum and Mega-Caps

• Large-cap, momentum, and growth stocks have outperformed in 9 of the last 10 years.

• The structure of the U.S. retirement system encourages allocations to momentum/cap-focused indices.

  Green:

  “People are largely shun into momentum and cap-focused indices... Unless we see a significant change in the economy, it’s just really hard to bet that that’s not going to happen yet again.” (05:10)

Flows into Fixed Income and Money Markets

• Despite falling yields, money market funds are at all-time high assets; people are reluctant to move capital out despite rate drops.

• Fixed income, especially investment-grade debt (though some is “increasingly questionable”), continues attracting inflows.

  Green:

  “We continue to see astonishing demand for investment-grade debt... that is where we are seeing significant inflows.” (07:10)

Notable Quotes

• D: “Every year, people say momentum trade is over... value, small-caps will have their day. And yet, here we are a third year in a row.” (05:49)
• Green: “The areas that we’ve seen... true ESG healthcare fund... it’s performed fantastically well. That area of healthcare is starting to attract attention as technology starts to lose a little of its luster.” (09:15)

2. Retail Recap: Apparel, Consumer Behavior, Big Box Stores

Guest: Laura Champine, Director of Research & Consumer Sector Head, Tabor Asset Management
Timestamps: 14:02 – 22:16

Apparel & Accessories Boost

• Ongoing strength in apparel/accessories, aided by GLP-1s (weight loss drugs) transitioning to oral forms, spurring wardrobe changes.

  Champine:

  “So people have to buy new clothes if they’re changing size... and new clothes may as well have new accessories to go with it.” (14:26)

• Nike’s attempts at growth are pushing more product into off-price retailers, possibly diluting brand and pressuring margins.

  Champine:

  “I think it dilutes the brand and potentially it dilutes returns... Investors are really focused at this moment on sales... margins will be lower.” (15:38)

GLP-1s—Cultural & Retail Impact

• Usage is widespread enough to drive retail apparel demand, but adherence may be short-lived due to costs.

  Champine:

  “Most people don’t stay on GLP-1... when people stop, they might be eligible again in nine months... They stop them because they’re expensive.” (16:15, 16:45)

Shifts in Discretionary Spending & Big Box Performances

• Weakness in big-ticket categories (appliances, flooring, mattresses) is freeing up discretionary cash—much of which is going to apparel.

• Costco's strategy: pulled back on decor/big ticket items due to tariffs, focusing on consumables and international markets for profitability.

• Walmart is leveraging tech and AI for faster delivery, merchandise optimization, and is attracting higher-income shoppers.

  Champine:

  “Digital, tech, and AI... the way they’re using tech and AI, a lot of it’s the back end, making deliveries fast... better merchandising.” (19:27)

Beauty & Youth Markets

• Beauty retail, especially at Ulta and for younger demographics (8–18), is a bright spot for 2026.
• Five Below also called a winner for its appeal in youth beauty/accessories.

Big Calls for 2026

• Prediction: Victoria’s Secret to regain momentum—an uptick in market share could drive substantial returns.

  Champine:

  “At their peak, they were selling 45% of all bras... they’re down to 20%. A move up to 25 or 30... new clothes, new sizes, new undergarments.” (22:01)

3. The AI Boom, Investment Realism, and Open vs. Closed Models

Guest: Manos Kukumides, CEO of umi, ex-Google Cloud/AI Lead
Timestamps: 22:48 – 27:36

The AI Investment Landscape

• Tremendous progress in 2024-2025, but cracks are forming beneath the surface.

• Major challenge: powering all the newly-built AI data centers—electricity is a limiting factor.

• Biggest looming issue: some major AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic) risk becoming "losing horses" due to business fundamentals and competition.

  Kukumides:

  “If I were to look in 2026, I think a bigger hiccup I foresee is some AI bubbles popping... Some companies like OpenAI, Anthropic and others... are going to start looking like the losing horse.” (24:47, 25:24)

• AI fundraising is likely to get tougher; investors are realizing some large players aren’t fundamentally sound.

The US AI Battleground: Open Source

• The real contest is in open-source AI; U.S. is trailing China's Alibaba (Quinn model) for enterprise needs.

• Long-term opportunity is in customized, niche, open models for business—not the generalist closed models.

  Kukumides:

  “We are missing on the most important AI battleground, and this is open source AI... more and more moving towards open models and unfortunately this is now primarily by Alibaba’s Quinn model as opposed to a US one.” (26:45)

4. Hollywood’s Future: Warner Bros, Netflix, Media’s Next Era

Guest: Ross Gerber, Co-Founder/President/CEO, Gerber Kawasaki
Timestamps: 30:55 – 39:00

The Warner Bros Bidding War

• The winner of Warner Bros will shape the future Hollywood landscape, but “the albatross” has a history of delivering buyer’s remorse.

• The real contest is between Netflix (defensive bid, smartly structured deals) and Ellison/Paramount (driven by business and possibly political motives).

  Gerber:

  “Every buyer of Warner Brothers has regretted it... this is a battle for control of the last piece of asset, you know, on the monopoly board of Hollywood.” (31:35)

• Netflix’s participation may be partly to force Ellison to overpay.

  Gerber:

  “I always thought Netflix was just bidding it up so that Ellison would just overpay substantially for this asset and be stuck with it in the end.” (34:09)

The Decline of Cable & the Rise of Social/Streaming Media

• Cable TV is dying; younger audiences shifted to YouTube and multi-platform distribution.

• News/media organizations must repurpose content for social media to maintain relevance.

  Gerber:

  “Cable is dead. It’s just a dying thing... You have to repurpose content for social media and have five or six different platforms.” (37:52)

• Likely scenario: legacy cable assets will be spun off into “ships with no future.”

Memorable Quotes

• Mike Green on passive investing:

  “People are largely shun into momentum and cap-focused indices by virtue of the way we structure our retirement system in the United States.” (05:10)

• Laura Champine on GLP-1s and retail:

  "So people have to buy new clothes if they’re changing size... as a cynic, I'll tell you we lose weight and gain it back.” (14:26, 16:15)

• Manos Kukumides (umi) on 2026 AI risks:

  “I think a bigger hiccup I foresee is some AI bubbles popping... Some companies... increasingly they're going to start looking like the losing horse.” (24:47)

• Ross Gerber on Warner Bros:

  “Every buyer of Warner Brothers has regretted it... this is really a battle for control of the last piece of asset, you know, on the monopoly board of Hollywood.” (31:35)

• Gerber on media’s future:

  “Cable is dead... You have to repurpose content for social media and have five or six different platforms.” (37:52)

Top Timestamps for Key Segments

• Alternative Investments & Markets (Mike Green): 03:04 – 10:30
• Retail & Consumer Trends (Laura Champine): 14:02 – 22:16
• AI Industry & Investment (Manos Kukumides): 22:48 – 27:36
• Media & Hollywood’s Future (Ross Gerber): 30:55 – 39:00

Summary Takeaways

• The end of 2025 shows persistent dominance of mega-cap/growth in U.S. markets, with passive flows reinforcing momentum.
• Fixed income and alternative assets are seeing innovation and strong inflows.
• Retail dynamics are shifting: apparel is ascendant; big box, especially Walmart (via tech), is thriving; shoppers are reallocating discretionary spend away from home goods towards clothing and beauty.
• AI investment is at an inflection point, with open-source models and infrastructure constraints as key battlegrounds.
• The media and Hollywood landscape faces massive consolidation and transformation as legacy assets become liabilities, and social/streaming channels take primacy.

For listeners who missed the episode: this edition provided timely end-of-year windows into the forces shaping finance, retail, technology, and media—offering big-picture takes, granular trendspotting, and memorable expert commentary heading into 2026.