Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Warner Bros. Plans to Reject Paramount Offer Next Week
Date: December 30, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec (Vonnie Quinn as guest host)
Notable Guests: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg News Managing Editor, Media and Entertainment), Ross Mayfield (Baird Private Wealth Management), Ed Price (NYU Senior Fellow, Former British Trade Official), Melissa Brown (SimCorp)

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on breaking news within the media industry: Warner Bros. Discovery's likely rejection of Paramount/Skydance’s amended takeover bid. Additionally, the show discusses major trends in global markets, insights on the Federal Reserve's direction, geopolitical flashpoints, and the outlook for 2026. The tone is analytical with a focus on pragmatic explanations and candid opinions from guests.

KEY SEGMENTS & INSIGHTS

1. Warner Bros. vs. Paramount: The Takeover Standoff

(02:41–07:48)

Guest: Lucas Shaw, Managing Editor, Media & Entertainment

• Background:
  Paramount has made 7–8 bids for Warner Bros. Discovery; latest offer addressed backing concerns regarding Larry Ellison as financier.
• Primary Issue:
  Warner Bros. board still unconvinced, viewing their existing Netflix deal as potentially superior.
  • “Paramount hasn’t really increased its offer in a few weeks... I think the Warner Brothers board is waiting to see if Paramount wants to offer more money.” — Lucas Shaw (03:08)
• Legal Posturing:
  Warner Bros. has created a “paper trail” of official concerns to shield themselves from possible litigation if Paramount’s bid is rejected.
  • “They've tried to enumerate a number of concerns... so it gives them cover, given the threat of lawsuits.” — Lucas Shaw (04:12)
• Valuation & Buyer Concerns:
  For Warner Bros., the value is mainly about the cable networks (like CNN, TNT), with skepticism about Paramount's ability to manage them despite Ellison's resources.
  • “Money is the biggest thing... Warner Brothers thinks [the networks] are worth more than Paramount [does], hence the disagreement.” — Lucas Shaw (05:06)
• Bidding War Dynamics:
  Paramount worries raising the bid could just spark a new round that Netflix can easily match.
  • “If you come back and only increase your bid by two or three dollars a share, that's something Netflix could probably match.” — Lucas Shaw (07:05)

Notable Moment:

• The complex dance of “legal cover” and public negotiation, with both sides attempting to win shareholder and public opinion.
• Memorable Quote:
  “At the end of the day, most of these deals are about who offers us the most money. If Paramount came and offered $32 share, $34 share, $35 share, they'd get the deal.” — Lucas Shaw (06:24)

2. Markets & Monetary Policy: Outlook for 2026

(11:47–17:43)

Guest: Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategist, Baird Private Wealth Management

• Fed Direction:
  Division within the Fed is rising; recent cuts give flexibility without forcing immediate further action.
  • “The Fed by cutting in December gives them room to not cut in January and then get to March when we will have several more months of clean data.” — Ross Mayfield (12:56)
• Labor vs. Inflation:
  Labor market risks are more worrying than inflation trends for 2026.
  • “I'm far more concerned about the labor market. The uptick in the unemployment rate... is quite concerning.” — Ross Mayfield (13:29)
• Top Themes for the New Year:
  1. Data center electricity and its inflationary effect—possible regulatory intervention ahead.
  2. Absence of a tech bubble: Current bull market driven by real profits, not speculation.
     • “The market has roughly doubled off the October 2022 lows... I think that the fundamentals of the underlying companies show that this is just a bull market driven by profits and not a bubble.” — Ross Mayfield (15:04)
  3. Gold's “bubble” has dissipated for now after a parabolic surge.
     • “Bullishness on metals and using it as a diversification part of a portfolio makes a lot of sense, but I don't know that we resume that uptrend maybe until the middle of 2026.” — Ross Mayfield (16:45)

3. Geopolitics: U.S. Power and Global Flashpoints

(18:00–27:15)

Guest: Ed Price, NYU Senior Fellow, ex-British Trade Official

• Key Concerns:
  Watchlist: Trump, Putin, Zelensky; China less immediately threatening regarding Taiwan for now.
  • “Xi Jinping... I think he's biding his time... I’ve probably been a bit hysterical about the China-Taiwan issue.” — Ed Price (20:04)
• Trump’s International Standing:
  Most European officials do not respect Trump; unpredictability is seen as destabilizing.
  • “They don't respect [Trump] for one reason, which is that... he doesn't actually stick to his guns... There's no incentive with him to do as he asks.” — Ed Price (22:08)
• U.S. Soft Power Decline:
  Ed argues U.S. reliance on “hard power” over “soft power” is eroding global trust and financial resilience.
  • “In showing hard power... and moving away from soft power, we are reducing the overall power of the United States.” — Ed Price (23:37)
• Gold & the Dollar:
  Rising gold prices partly reflect treasury market worries and a weakening “dollar smile.”
  • “If there was a new thesis that... there were too many dollars in existence... what exactly would the economic policy response be?” — Ed Price (25:03)
• Biggest Global Risk:
  “The United States right now is the biggest risk to the world as expressed in the world that the United States built.” — Ed Price (25:55)

4. Global Equity Outlook: Is U.S. Exceptionalism Over?

(31:13–38:07)

Guest: Melissa Brown, Head of Investment Decision Research, SimCorp

• US Market Performance:
  U.S. did well but lagged many global and emerging markets in 2025.
  • “Markets outside the developed markets, excluding the US, have been much stronger and emerging markets have been even stronger than that.” — Melissa Brown (32:00)
• Historical Trends:
  Multiple years of strong gains are typically followed by lower-than-average returns.
  • “That kind of strength three years in a row is typically followed by lower than average returns...” — Melissa Brown (32:55)
• Rotation and Diversification:
  Time may be ripe to “dip a toe” into non-U.S. markets, but all are vulnerable if the U.S. stumbles.
  • “Outside the U.S.... certainly offers a lot of opportunities. The problem comes, I think, is if the US market falls apart, in which case, you know, nobody is immune.” — Melissa Brown (33:31)
• Bond and Gold Alternatives:
  Bond market caution—aggressive rate cuts could trigger inflationary fears; gold already had its run.
• Volatility Paradox:
  Despite uncertainty, volatility (VIX) remains low due to low stock correlation.
  • “Stocks have very low correlations. So that translates into... the market has been going up, but it's been going up little bits every day...” — Melissa Brown (37:16)

NOTABLE QUOTES & MEMORABLE MOMENTS

• Lucas Shaw (on Warner Bros. deal): “If Paramount came and offered $32 share, $34 share, $35 share, they'd get the deal.” (06:24)
• Ross Mayfield (on bubble fears): “The market has roughly doubled off the October 2022 lows... this is just a bull market driven by profits and not a bubble.” (15:04)
• Ed Price (on American soft power): “We are reducing the overall power of the United States... hard power is in part based on our soft power... at some point that is going to seep into the market for US Debt.” (23:37–24:10)
• Melissa Brown (on global investing): “I think outside the U.S. certainly offers a lot of opportunities. The problem comes... if the US market falls apart, in which case, you know, nobody is immune.” (33:31)

TIMESTAMPS FOR IMPORTANT SEGMENTS

• Warner Bros.–Paramount–Netflix Standoff: 02:41–07:48
• Fed and Market Outlook with Ross Mayfield: 11:47–17:43
• Geopolitics with Ed Price: 18:00–27:15
• Global Markets and 2026 Outlook with Melissa Brown: 31:13–38:07

STYLE & TONE

The discussion is candid, analytical, and occasionally witty, balancing deep dives into technical/strategic issues with broad, accessible explanations. Both hosts and guests are forthright about uncertainties and the subtleties of power, money, and markets.

In sum:
The episode delivers detailed reporting and expert opinion on the fate of a blockbuster media deal, the risks facing global markets, and the shifting sands of geopolitical influence as 2025 ends and 2026 begins.