Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Warsh Set to Face Early Reality Check as Trump’s Man at the Fed
Date: January 30, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Guests: Michael McKee (Bloomberg Economics & Policy Correspondent), Katie Kaminski (AlphaSimplex Group), John Van Eck (VanEck Funds CEO), Dr. Ellen Wald (Transversal Consulting)

Overview

This episode centers on President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair—an appointment likely to have sweeping consequences for US monetary policy, financial markets, and the global economic outlook. The discussion also covers recent volatility in cross-asset markets, reactions to Warsh’s nomination, the interplay of geopolitics and commodities (especially gold, energy, and metals), and the macro environment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Kevin Warsh’s Background, Reputation, and Policy Approach

[01:46–06:53]

• Warsh’s Credentials:
  • Former Fed Governor during the financial crisis, with both monetary policy and Wall Street (Morgan Stanley, Duquesne) experience.
  • “He is very qualified…he’s got a good Wall Street background…He is well known, and people feel he’s very qualified.” – Michael McKee [02:19]
• Policy Stance:
  • Known as an inflation hawk, previously argued inflation is the Fed’s top issue.
  • Advocates for reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, opposes forward guidance and short-term forecasting.
  • Warsh believes AI, business investment, and deregulation can drive growth with low inflation, enabling lower rates (“Warshinomics”).
• Challenge:
  • “How much of this is going to be seen as doing the President’s bidding and how much…as warshinomics?” – Michael McKee [02:59]
  • The confirmation process will reveal whether he’s perceived as an independent thinker or a Trump loyalist.

> Quote:

“He doesn’t like using short term forecasts, and he finds it part of the Fed communication problem...he doesn’t like forward guidance either. He finds that less than useful.”
– Michael McKee [06:01]

2. AI, Productivity, and Inflation: Are the Optimistic Claims Realistic?

[03:29–04:25]

• Warsh echoes arguments that AI can boost productivity and allow for lower inflation and rates.
• Caution from McKee: "We saw this with the PC revolution in the 1990s…productivity went way up, inflation went way down…but the question is…everybody has to figure out how to use [AI] to really increase productivity…that’s the part nobody quite knows yet." [03:36]
• Societal Challenge: If AI replaces jobs, “then what happens to society? That’s another big issue.” – McKee [04:18]

3. Confirmation Politics and Fed Independence

[04:25–11:12]

• Senate Dynamics:
  • Thom Tillis (R–NC) expected to support Warsh, possibly contingent on dropping the Justice Department investigation into Jay Powell (the outgoing Chair).
  • “There are many ways they could easily say, ‘Okay, we looked at this and it wasn’t a crime’…drop this before it becomes an obstacle to Warsh getting through.” – McKee [05:10]
• Powell’s Future Role:
  • If Powell remains as a Governor after stepping down as Chair, any dissent could undermine Warsh:
    “If he dissents…it's going to carry a lot of weight in the markets and…undermine Warsh.” – McKee [11:25]
• Fed Chair vs. President:
  • Tension is inherent: “The Fed chair is supposed to be looking out for the economy, and the President's going to be looking out for the President—no matter who the President is.” – McKee [09:59]

4. Market Responses to Warsh’s Nomination

With Katie Kaminski – [06:53–09:39]

• Immediate Reaction:
  • “Huge cross asset selloff day… correlations between asset classes spiking that normally wouldn’t.” – Kaminski [07:17]
• Market Expectations:
  • Markets wanted “pedal to the metal, get lower rates” – a more moderate candidate (Warsh) caused a reassessment and selloff.
  • Metals (especially gold, silver) were trending but experienced reversals.
• Prospect for Bonds:
  • “More uncertainty in bond markets and more volatility and potential for more extreme scenarios.” – Kaminski [09:03]

5. Will Markets Keep the Fed Honest Amid Political Pressure?

[12:32–14:56]

• Political Oversight:
  • Some, like CA Gov. Gavin Newsom, argue that “the markets kind of keep the president on the straight and narrow” when it comes to Fed independence.
  • Kaminski believes bond markets are “harder for the president to [control]…if we lose the bond market and things get challenging, it can be very difficult.” [13:29]
• Ongoing Volatility:
  • “Just the level of volatility…in some of these commodities…indicates that we’re in a very different regime this year than we have been in recent months.” [14:56]

6. Gold & Commodities Outlook: Macro & Geopolitical Drivers

With John Van Eck – [18:29–25:28]

• Gold’s Bull Run:
  • “This is the hardest bull market to trade…deep fundamentals are still there…The U.S. has a fiscal spending problem. We’ve weaponized our financial system…the world economy is becoming diverse…countries want gold, something they can hold.” – Van Eck [18:49]
• Shift Away from Dollar Dominance:
  • “It’s the dollar plus gold…China and India don’t want a dollarized economy.” [20:56]
• ETF Flows:
  • Despite the price rally, little US buying until recently; international interest robust.
• AI and Electrification:
  • Massive AI/data demand drives long-term bull case for electricity and critical metals, especially copper and uranium.
  • “Electrification needs the old world…natural gas, gas turbines, construction, all that…If you get China even showing some signs of life, you’ve got good demand for the old world.” [22:34]
• On Warsh’s Nomination:
  • “Basically picked a very competent nominee…If you looked at the financial markets today and I told you which day this week was the Fed governor nominated, you would have no idea…landed the plane perfectly.” [24:35]
• Main Worry:
  • “I’m worried about over fiscal spending in the United States. That’s where we lose confidence in the global markets and that will weaken the dollar again and cause gold to continue to rally.” [25:18]

7. Energy & Geopolitics: Iran, Venezuela, and Oil Prices

With Dr. Ellen Wald – [28:15–33:23]

• Middle East Tensions:
  • Trump’s threat of a full oil embargo on Iran seen as serious:
    “We’ve, we’ve seen this show before…unless Iran’s oil facilities are targeted, there isn’t much of a threat…But now we are seeing that President Trump is actually putting a kind of oil embargo on the table…people are taking this much more seriously.” – Wald [28:59]
• Venezuela as an Oil Player:
  • Companies cautious—Chevron only able to boost production by ~120,000 bpd over next 2 years; larger increases “going to take a lot longer and a lot more investment.” [30:21]
• Macro Backdrop:
  • Iranian oil off the market could push prices up. China will either have to pay more or import less if deprived of Iranian crude.
  • “[Stock performance is] the impact of higher oil prices…[but] whether this is going to continue…all depends on how the geopolitical situation plays out.” [32:13]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Warsh’s Independence:

  “How much of this is going to be seen as doing the President’s bidding and how much of it is going to be seen as warshinomics?”
  – Michael McKee [02:59]

• On AI and Productivity Parallels:

  “We saw this with the PC revolution in the 1990s. Productivity went way up, inflation went way down…We just don’t know how long it's going to take [with AI].”
  – Michael McKee [03:36]

• On Powell Staying as Governor:

  “This is not an ordinary governor. This is the guy who was the chair…If he dissents or…objects…it’s going to…undermine Warsh.”
  – Michael McKee [11:25]

• On Market Response:

  “The market was really waiting for more of a pedal to the metal, get lower rates…a more moderate candidate ironically has caused a sell off…”
  – Katie Kaminski [07:56]

• On Gold as Global Reserve Shift:

  “It’s the dollar plus gold…Countries want [gold] because…it's untouchable…It's a big paradigm shift.”
  – John Van Eck [20:56]

• On Geopolitics and Oil:

  “President Trump is actually putting a kind of oil embargo on the table…and so I think people are taking this much more seriously.”
  – Dr. Ellen Wald [28:59]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Kevin Warsh’s Background, Policy, and Independence: [01:46–06:53]
• AI, Productivity, and Inflation Dynamics: [03:29–04:25]
• Politics of the Confirmation – Senate & Powell’s Role: [04:25–11:12]
• Market Response and Bond Market Implications: [06:53–09:39]
• Markets as Checks on Political Power: [12:32–14:56]
• Gold, Commodities, and the Macroeconomic Regime: [18:29–25:28]
• Energy Geopolitics and Market Outlook: [28:15–33:23]

Summary Table

| Topic | Featured Speaker(s) | Key Points | Timestamp | |----------------------------|----------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Warsh’s Profile & Nomination | Michael McKee | Qualified, independent? Hawks’ background, “warshinomics” vs. “Trump’s man” | 01:46–06:53 | | AI & Productivity Hopes | Michael McKee | Parallels to PC revolution, real impact unclear, risk of societal disruption | 03:29–04:25 | | Confirmation Politics | M. McKee, Hosts | Senate maneuvers, Powell’s influence post-chair, Fed-chair–president clash | 04:25–11:12 | | Markets’ Initial Response | Katie Kaminski | Cross-asset selloff, disappointment over moderation, volatility in metals & bonds | 06:53–09:39 | | Market Checks on Politics | Katie Kaminski | Markets may reset expectations, keep Fed anchored, bond market as last backstop | 12:32–14:56 | | Gold & Commodities Outlook | John Van Eck | Bull case: fiscal issues, de-dollarization, electrification, AI, global flows | 18:29–25:28 | | Oil, Energy, Geopolitics | Dr. Ellen Wald | Iran embargo threat, Venezuela limitations, Chinese demand, macro risks for energy prices | 28:15–33:23 |

Conclusion

This episode provided a rich, nuanced look at how US monetary policy, political maneuvering, technological change, and global geopolitics are colliding in real time as Kevin Warsh stands poised to take on the Fed’s top job. Guests offered well-reasoned skepticism about optimistic AI-driven growth, highlighted the sensitivity of financial markets to both policy and geopolitics, and mapped out a world where gold and energy remain core to strategic positioning—both for countries and for portfolios.