Bloomberg Businessweek – February 6, 2026

Episode Title: White House Explores Opening Antitrust Probe on Homebuilders
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

Episode Overview

This episode dives into shifting dynamics in the U.S. economy, with a central focus on a Bloomberg exclusive: the Trump administration's exploration of an antitrust investigation into the U.S. homebuilding industry amidst the housing affordability crisis. Hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec are joined by Bloomberg News real estate reporter Pat Clark and additional guests, including Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco, and Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney. They cover homebuilder antitrust concerns, the economic polarization beneath headline growth, massive AI-fueled capex by tech giants, and the evolving narratives of cryptocurrency.

Key Segments & Insights

1. White House Antitrust Probe into Homebuilders

(01:47 - 05:15)

• Breaking News: The Trump administration is considering opening an antitrust probe into large U.S. homebuilders, aiming to address the housing affordability crisis.
• Details:
  • Attention centers on the Leading Builders of America, a homebuilder trade group, suspected of possible price coordination among members.
  • This concern plots parallels with OPEC and allegations that builders are "sitting on more lots than ever," as noted in the President's social media post last October.
  • Pat Clark (Bloomberg Real Estate Reporter):
    • “Are homebuilders coordinating through the trade group? ...You're not supposed to tell your competitors how you're setting prices.” (02:27)
    • “They haven't responded. They're keeping their heads down right now.” (03:38)
• Context: The administration seeks solutions to home affordability, though rapid progress is unrealistic given deep-rooted market issues.
  • "It took 15 years to get to this point. It took a pandemic... I don't think the standard should be getting to a solution overnight." – Pat Clark (04:40)

Notable Quote:

• "This is kind of what the bad side might look like." – Pat Clark, on builders' attempts to stay in the administration's good graces (04:15)

2. US Economic Polarization & Fragility

(07:31 - 13:03 | 10:35 - 12:42)

• US Consumer Sentiment: Improved to a six-month high, especially among wealthier Americans, boosted by stock market gains.
• Fed's Position:
  • Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President):
    • On combating inflation:
      "We really don't want to have inflation. Once inflation gets entrenched in people's minds, it changes how the economy evolves." (08:07)
    • On the "K-shaped" economy:
      "There are a lot of families that are precarious and are feeling very uncertain about their prospects for the future and the prospects for their children." (08:42)
    • On confidence in the Fed:
      "People tell me we're grateful for what you're doing... We want you to be as data-dependent and as open to information so you can make the best judgment." (09:40)
• Polarization vs. K-shape:
  • Gregory Daco (EY Chief Economist):
    • "It's not necessarily a K-shaped economy as much as it is a polarized economy within which you're still seeing strong averages, average consumer spending still doing well, average business investment still doing well, average GDP still doing well." (11:04)
    • "The income growth for consumers is relatively low... That explains why the personal saving rate has fallen." (12:10)

Memorable Moment:

• "People are dipping into their savings. They're using credit." – Gregory Daco (12:40)
• Caution on fiscal stimulus:
  "What is this money going to be used for? Is it going to be used for spending or reimbursing some of the credit, and replenishing savings?" (12:42)

3. AI Investment Boom & Macro Risks

(13:03 - 18:02, 18:55 - 22:48, 25:16 - 26:42)

• Huge Tech CapEx: Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft project $650 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 on datacenters to drive AI initiatives.
  • Amazon alone plans $200B, $60B above analyst estimates for 2026.
• Risks of Overconcentration:
  • Gregory Daco:
    • "We should be very careful about the potential of an AI bust. This is a real downside risk and it's interconnected with other potential risks to the US Economy." (13:44)
    • "You're seeing a lot of growth that is reliant on a few actors in the economy. Wealthier individuals and larger firms, and smaller businesses and lower income families are increasingly struggling." (16:47)
  • Returns on AI Investment:
    • Mark Mahaney (Evercore ISI):
      "We're going through a free cash flow desert. These huge amounts of capex spend are challenging that free cash flow generation and investors are right to be concerned... What investors should also focus on is what are they seeing in terms of ROAI – like what kind of returns are we getting?" (20:52) "I just think that... these are their ability to educate themselves, train themselves, learn new skills. I think it's extraordinary what we're seeing. And so, yeah, I believe in the cycle." (23:22)
• Industry Winners & Losers:
  • Major tech companies have the scale and resources to benefit from the AI boom. Concerns loom for companies (e.g., travel sector) that may fail to adapt agentic AI solutions.
    • "Booking.com, Expedia, and Airbnb better be effectively and successfully investing in agentic travel... Because if they don't, then those are companies that... could be dramatically smaller, three to five years." – Mark Mahaney (26:53)

4. Labor Market Health

(18:02 - 18:41)

• Gregory Daco (EY):
  • Labor market is “in balance, but it’s a fragile balance.”
  • "We've seen a historical negative shock to labor supply from reduced immigration. So we have a break even rate that's close to zero, but we are seeing labor demand being hesitant." (18:15)
  • Downward pressure on income may lead to softer consumer spending through the year.

5. The Changing Crypto Narrative

(32:17 - 39:53)

• Recent Bitcoin Volatility: Bitcoin rebounded after a major selloff, but recent moves lack clear catalysts and point to a maturing, more fragmented market.
  • Stacey Marie Ishmael (Bloomberg Executive Editor, Crypto):
    • "So much of this asset class and this industry has been defined by narrative. And so many of the big spikes up have been driven by events... and we've really been lacking... positive events for the past several months." (33:41)
    • “People believe in the underlying technology... you have major Wall Street investment banks saying they're looking into things like tokenization and... putting assets on the blockchain.” (34:59)
    • Difference from past: now options go beyond just buying Bitcoin.
  • Correlations Emerging:
    • Some digital asset prices now increasingly tied to AI sector sentiment and tech stock moves.
      • "We've moved from an asset class that was positioned as not correlated with anything to an asset class that's actually increasingly correlated with lots of different kinds of things in interesting ways." (36:40)
  • On Bitcoin as 'digital gold':
    • “The idea of it being a safe haven asset has always been a little bit challenging... It's really tricky to maintain the idea of it being a safe haven asset when it has like such high beta performance when people are selling risk." (39:12)
    • Bitcoin is now more institutionalized, moving away from its anti-establishment roots.

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• Pat Clark (02:27):
  "Are homebuilders coordinating through the trade group?... You're not supposed to tell your competitors how you're setting prices."
• Raphael Bostic (08:07):
  "Once inflation gets entrenched in people's minds, it changes how the economy evolves."
• Gregory Daco (11:04):
  "...not necessarily a K-shaped economy as much as it is a polarized economy..."
• Mark Mahaney (20:52):
  "We're going through a free cash flow desert. These huge amounts of capex spend are challenging that free cash flow generation and investors are right to be concerned."
• Stacey Marie Ishmael (34:59):
  "You have major Wall Street investment banks saying they're looking into things like tokenization and, you know, putting assets on the blockchain."
• Gregory Daco (12:40):
  "People are dipping into their savings. They're using credit."

Timestamps for Major Themes

• White House Probing Homebuilders: 01:47 – 05:15
• Economic Polarization & Fed Confidence: 07:31 – 13:03
• AI CapEx Boom & Market Impacts: 13:03 – 26:42
• Crypto Volatility and Institutionalization: 32:17 – 39:53

Summary Takeaways

• Housing Policy Uncertainty: The administration is actively probing potential anti-competitive behavior among homebuilders, with uncertain industry repercussions.
• Economic Growth Conceals Polarization: While headline growth and consumer sentiment are strong, deep divides exist between income groups and business sizes.
• Tech Titans’ AI Surge: Massive investments are raising the stakes (and risks), creating winners (big tech) and losers (unadapted sectors) while testing investor patience with sparse near-term free cash flow.
• Labor & Consumer Fragility: Labor market balance is delicate, and ongoing income stagnation poses threats to spending.
• Evolving Crypto Reality: As institutional adoption grows, crypto’s role, risks, and correlations are all shifting.
• Cautious Optimism Dominates: Guests broadly stress economic and market fragility beneath the optimism, urging careful differentiation between headline successes and underlying vulnerabilities.

For listeners seeking a nuanced understanding of the U.S. economy’s complex crosscurrents—from homebuilders to megacap tech, the labor force, and crypto—this episode is a rich resource.