Your Weather App Could Soon Develop Blind Spots

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Your Weather App Could Soon Develop Blind Spots
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Guest: Mark Gongloff (Bloomberg Opinion Editor and Columnist, climate change specialist)
Date: July 15, 2026
Main Theme:
This episode delves into growing gaps in US weather data due to staffing cuts and technology limitations at the National Weather Service, with a focus on the critical role weather balloons play in forecasting, the implications of these data gaps for public safety and the insurance industry, and whether the private sector or international sources can fill the void.

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Main Discussion: The Reliability Crisis in US Weather Forecasting

Opening Context: Weather, Grid Stress, and App Accuracy

• [01:37] The episode starts with a personal anecdote about record-breaking heat (“97 degrees”), and doubts about weather app accuracy.
• Tim highlights headlines about the US power grid (PJM) “failing for a third straight time” to secure enough capacity amid surging demand from data centers, emphasizing the increased strain during hot weather.

The Weather Balloon Shortage and Its Consequences

• [02:39] Carol introduces Mark Gongloff and references his recent column and a Gizmodo article about cutbacks at the National Weather Service.
• Mark explains:
  • Large sections of the country, particularly the Great Plains, Midwest, and Pacific Northwest, are launching about half as many weather balloons as before.
  • Weather balloons are described as “MRIs for the atmosphere” ([03:31]), collecting upper-atmosphere data crucial for forecasting.
  • The loss of morning launches especially affects detecting weather systems that can evolve and impact distant areas—“weather moves from west to east.”
• Quote [03:31]:
  "These [weather balloons] are like MRIs for the atmosphere... what you lose then is weather that develops early that could affect your weather later."
  — Mark Gongloff

Impact on Severe Weather and Forecasts

• [04:52] Mark discusses how, although we don’t have proven evidence that forecasts have deteriorated, there’s “a lot of anecdotal evidence” and a notable recent incident:
  • In April, tornadoes hit Kansas unexpectedly—some blamed the “lack of weather balloons on the Great Plains.”
• [05:02] Mark cautions the biggest risks are missing “extreme weather ... flash floods, sudden tornadoes,” which are most dependent on high-quality, frequent data.
  • Ongoing cuts have also resulted in layoffs of experienced meteorologists, weakening the capacity and institutional knowledge at NWS.

Economic and Societal Consequences

• [06:00] Carol asks about "prediction markets" filling the gap:
  • Mark argues prediction markets depend on accurate data and have ethical risks:
  • “I personally find it kind of not good morally to bet on those kinds of disasters.”
• The real concern is for the insurance industry; less confident forecasts add cost and uncertainty, driving up homeowner premiums.
• Quote [06:48]:
  "If you have less data, if the forecasts start to deteriorate over time, insurance companies say, 'Hey, I've got all this uncertainty ... I've got to price that uncertainty into your home insurance premiums, which are already very high right now.'"
  — Mark Gongloff

Can Government or Private Sector Fix It?

• [07:14] Tim asks if solutions will come from future administrations or the private sector.

  • Mark: Private tech can't replace government data yet—private apps pull directly from NWS and US government sources.
  • Political and commercial pressure might accelerate fixes before 2030.

• Quote [08:10]:
  "You can't replace this with the private sector, unfortunately at the moment, because all the private sector gets this stuff straight from the NWS, straight from the US government. So you're kind of at a loss if you don't have that stuff."
  — Mark Gongloff

International Models and Cooperation

• [08:24] Tim: Can international sources like Europe help?
  • Mark: European weather models are solid and improving, but “it took lots of taxpayer dollars, lots of years to build up what we've got now.” Replicating the US’ capacity is not a quick fix.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the value of weather balloons:
  “What you lose then is weather that develops early that could affect your weather later... weather moves from west to east.” (Mark Gongloff, [03:31])
• On deteriorating expertise:
  “A lot of very experienced meteorologists were fired last year. And you don’t get that institutional knowledge back very quickly.” (Mark Gongloff, [06:00])
• On insurance impacts:
  “Insurance companies say, ‘Hey, I’ve got all this uncertainty now... I’ve got to price that uncertainty into your home insurance premiums.’” (Mark Gongloff, [06:48])
• On private sector limitations:
  “All the private sector gets this stuff straight from the NWS, straight from the US government.” (Mark Gongloff, [08:10])

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Key Timestamps

• 01:37 — Opening remarks on heat, power grid pressure, and reliability of weather apps
• 02:39 — Introduction to Mark Gongloff and the issue of weather balloon cutbacks
• 03:31 — Explanation of the importance of weather balloons for forecasts
• 04:52 — Impacts of data gaps on severe weather prediction and the Kansas tornado anecdote
• 05:02 — Risks of missing extreme events and erosion of NWS capacity
• 06:00 — Prediction markets, insurance impacts, and moral considerations
• 07:14 — Discussion: Who will or can fix the data gaps—government or private sector?
• 08:24 — Role and limits of international models in covering US weather data loss

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Tone and Language

The episode maintains a blend of directness and urgency, with underlying concern for overlooked systemic issues (“you don’t get that institutional knowledge back very quickly”), and real-world consequences for businesses and ordinary people. There’s a conversational style that invites listeners to consider both the technical and human sides of weather prediction.

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Bottom Line

This episode raises alarms about critical gaps emerging in US weather infrastructure, primarily due to resource and staffing cuts at the National Weather Service. These deficiencies put the accuracy of weather apps and forecast-dependent businesses in jeopardy, potentially hiking insurance costs and exposing the public to greater risk from extreme weather events. The consensus: unless action is taken, weather forecasting in the US—and the tools we all rely on—could develop dangerous “blind spots.”

Transcript

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[Carol Massar]

You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Massar and Tim Stanvak on Bloomberg Radio. Gonna be hot tomorrow at last. Check my weather app said 97 degrees here in New York.

[Tim Stanvak]

It's crazy.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. Who knows if that's actually accurate, though.

[Tim Stanvak]

It's our reality, though.

[Optum Representative]

Yeah.

[Tim Stanvak]

Of where we are. Yeah. And what's interesting is we did see a couple of headlines crossing earlier. The biggest US Power grid failing for a third straight time to secure enough future supply commitments to ensure reliability in coming years amid a boom in data center demand. So we're talking about pjm, that power grid. And it's something that we've talked about a lot. They see total capacity cost tying a record of 16.5 billion. So the power grab continues. And it doesn't help that when you've got really hot temperatures, you're seeing really kind of stress in terms of air conditioning. We may not need it here in this studio because it's. My fingers are numb right now.

[Carol Massar]

I think it's a perfect temperature.

[Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer]

Unfortunately.

[Tim Stanvak]

Unfortunately I'm sorry, I have hand warmers.

[Carol Massar]

That's how cold it is. But anyway, you heard me mention that I don't know if the weather app is actually going to be accurate, because who knows if that is actually accurate? Who knows that the data that they're getting from the government right now is actually as good as that data can be? That's what Mark Gongloff writes about. He's a Bloomberg Opinion editor and columnist. He covers climate change. He joins us now from New Jersey. Mark, I'm so glad that you wrote this story. You actually referenced a piece that made the rounds in the Stanwick family chat, which was from Gizmodo last week. My brother sent it around and it and as you write about in the piece, too, you take the piece a step further. This piece basically said the Doge firings and the cuts that we've seen at the National Weather Service have really affected the number of weather balloons that can go up and gather data. What did this report find and then what did you find in your column?

[Mark Gongloff]

The report found that there's a big chunk of the United States, from the Great Plains up to the Midwest and the Pacific Northwest where you're getting about half of the the number of weather balloon launches that you used to get. And why this matters is you're not getting them in the morning, and you're not and you're it's a big chunk of the west that's not getting weather balloons. And what these things are is they're like MRIs for the atmosphere going from this ground all the way to the troposphere. So the, the, what you lose then is weather that develops early that could affect your weather later. And whether that develops in the west, that could affect weather in the east, which it almost always does. Weather moves from west to east. You have this huge gap where you've only got about half the data you used to get. We haven't seen there. Nobody's done a study yet that says the, you know, forecasts are any worse. There are a lot of, there's a lot of anecdotal evidence. A lot of people are saying, you know, the forecasts don't seem right to me. And there was a big thing that happened in April in Kansas where all of a sudden these tornadoes hit in Kansas, which Kansas is, you know, obviously prone to tornadoes, as, as we all know. But these sort of seem to come out of almost nowhere to some extent. And some people were starting to blame the lack of weather balloons on the Great Plains for that.

[Tim Stanvak]

So maybe we haven't missed too much yet. But is the possibility of a miss, Mark, now greater if we're not launching more balloons, weather balloons into the atmosphere?

[Mark Gongloff]

Yeah, that's what meteorologists are saying. Again, not all of them because the jury is still kind of out. But the thing with these balloons is that what you miss most often is, is extreme weather. And that's the thing we care about the most, unfortunately. And so things like flash floods, a bunch of sudden tornadoes and also hurricanes and, you know, hurricanes intensifying. So those weather balloons aren't affecting that. But there are other issues with the National Weather Service. A lot of layoffs, a lot of places are stressed out, they don't have enough people, they're not keeping up websites, that sort of thing. So everything's just kind of like on edge right now. And so, yes, we haven't necessarily. There's nothing, there's no fingerprints on any big mess yet. But the odds are going up. And then of course you have the long term effect of people being stressed, meteorologists, you know, leaving. A lot of, a lot of very experienced meteorologists were fired last year. And you don't get that institutional knowledge back very quickly.

[Carol Massar]

Mark, come on. Camp prediction markets fill the void.

[Mark Gongloff]

Sure. Yes. Well, that's another interesting thing is that, you know, these prediction markets are based on knowing how much a, how, how much wind you're going to get in a hurricane or how many tornadoes you're going to get or where flooding is going to happen. And so I personally find that kind of a, not good morally to bet on those kinds of disasters. But people are doing that. And so there's money at stake. More importantly, there's money at stake in the insurance market. And that's where you start to get into real issues where you, if you have less data, if the forecasts start to deteriorate over time, insurance companies say, hey, I've got all this uncertainty now about where tornadoes and such are going to land. I've got to price that uncertainty into your home insurance premiums, which are already very high right now.

[Carol Massar]

Right. So we're paying for the uncertainty.

[Tim Stanvak]

Yeah, right, yes. And more people paying for the uncertainty. Right. If you don't know, if you actually don't know, especially since we know it's gotten more volatile and we weather events are happening in places that didn't used to happen. Yeah, yeah. So where does this all leave us? I mean, I don't know, do we all just wait for another administration or do some folks wait for another administration and then we start to See the weather balloons go back up or does the private sector get involved? I mean, how do.

[Bank of America Announcer]

I don't know.

[Mark Gongloff]

I don't know for sure. I can't predict the future either. It would be, I could on the surface say, yeah, we just have to wait till 2030, but we really can't wait till 2030. There could be a disaster that comes and you know, you know, this stuff does not go unnoticed. And there have been issues that, like with the, the ocean monitoring that the Trump administration wanted to tear up. There are a lot of people that said, hey, wait a minute, I need some of these forecasts that they're producing. And so businesses need these things. This causes weather, extreme weather. Whether you believe in climate change or not, extreme weather causes business disruptions. People want good weather. And so there could before 2030 be political pressure to say, hey, let's, let's kind of juice up, you know, the, what we've got going on at the government level. Because you can't replace this with the private sector, unfortunately at the moment because all the private sector gets this stuff straight from the nws, straight from the US Government. So you're kind of at a loss if you don't have that stuff.

[Tim Stanvak]

Real quick, just under 30 seconds. I know US weather data really has been top notch, but are other weather knows no borders? So are other countries doing things that we can kind of rely on and just real quickly, please.

[Mark Gongloff]

Yeah, I mean, Europe is doing some great things right now and they've got some good models that help predict things. Other, other places are going to eventually catch up. The problem is that that takes time. It took lots of taxpayer dollars, lots of years to build up what we've got now. So it's going to be hard to replicate that.

[Bank of America Announcer]

Well.

[Tim Stanvak]

We appreciate being able to check in with you and staying on top of this. Mark Ongloff, he's columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, covering all things when it comes to climate change. Really appreciate it.

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