Instant Reaction: Intel's Revenue Shatters Wall Street Estimates

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Intelligence – "Instant Reaction: Intel's Revenue Shatters Wall Street Estimates"

Date: July 23, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu
Guests/Contributors: Ian King (Bloomberg Tech Analyst), Mandeep Singh (Global Head of Technology Research, Bloomberg Intelligence), Ed Ludlow (Host, Bloomberg Tech)

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Episode Overview

In this breaking news episode, Bloomberg Intelligence provides instant analysis of Intel’s unexpectedly positive revenue report, focusing on the company's resurgence in the data center CPU market. The discussion, led by prominent Bloomberg analysts, delves into the sustainability of Intel's recent gains, its competitive positioning among major players like Nvidia and AMD, and the broader dynamics of semiconductor demand driven by AI and data center investments.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Intel's Surprising Revenue Beat (01:50–02:35)

• Ian King: Intel delivered a much stronger revenue forecast than analysts expected. The boost is largely attributed to soaring demand for data center chips, where sales jumped 59% year-over-year.
  • Quote [01:50]: “Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast... indicating that a surge in data center spending is helping fuel the chip maker's turnaround.”

2. The Data Center CPU Surge (02:35–04:12)

• Root Cause of Growth: Intel remains central in supplying CPUs for data centers, which are in high demand due to AI computing needs.
• Competition: Intel is no longer the monopoly it once was, as Nvidia, Google, and AMD are pushing into CPU arenas.
  • Ian King [02:35]: “The CPU side is something that Intel had a monopoly over... but now they seem to be coming back.”

3. Intel’s Place in the Systems Race & Sustainability Questions (04:12–05:47)

• System Providers vs. Chip Sellers: Intel currently sells CPUs as components, whereas competitors (like Nvidia) offer complete, bundled data center systems.
  • Ian King [04:17]: “It’s too early to compare Intel to... Nvidia... Intel is not in that category yet.”
• Sustained Growth Doubts: The episode questions whether Intel can sustain its current growth trajectory given higher expectations and stiffening competition.

4. Comparing Intel, AMD, and Nvidia (05:47–07:14)

• Not in Nvidia's League: Nvidia has overtaken Intel in CPU revenue when bundled with their systems.
  • Ian King [05:49]: “Nvidia is making their own CPUs... Nvidia has already surpassed Intel.”
• Traditional vs. AI Data Centers:
  • Ian King [06:21]: “Traditional data centers: Intel is great... You buy Nvidia systems for your AI data centers... which have different specs altogether.”

5. Intel’s Competitive Universe and Risks (07:14–08:38)

• Key Competitor: AMD is Intel’s main rival in the legacy server market.
• Potential Market Shift: As AI-centric data centers grow, Intel’s dominance in traditional data centers may not translate into AI workloads, raising questions about long-term market relevance.

6. Stock Market Context & Volatility (08:38–09:47)

• Recent Stock Performance: Despite strong performance earlier in the year, Intel’s stock price recently dropped, reflecting profit-taking and sector-wide corrections rather than company-specific issues.
  • Host [08:38]: “This was the third best performing stock in the S&P 500... now it’s down about 30% in the last month.”

7. The CapEx Cycle & Risks of Overspending (09:54–11:31)

• CapEx and Sector Booms: Increased capital expenditures (CapEx) by hyperscalers (e.g., Alphabet) are positive for chipmakers but can spook investors in those tech companies.
  • Ian King [10:13]: “We are talking about trillion dollars in capex by these five big hyperscalers next year.”

8. Regulatory and Market Risks (11:05–11:38)

• The episode touches on the specter of increased government regulation given data center energy consumption and company dominance.
  • Ian King [11:05]: “Imagine after all this spend... if these companies became regulated... you can't really maximize your profits anymore.”

9. Intel Supply Challenges & CapEx Plans (11:38–14:50)

• Strong Demand but Supply Gaps: Despite having US-based foundries, Intel isn’t fully satisfying demand—raising operational questions.
  • Ed Ludlow [11:57]: “They’re doing a better job, but... they just cannot meet 100% of the orders that are being placed.”
  • Ian King [13:10]: “Why is there vapor shortages for your own CPUs? Like you have the foundries that are based here in the U.S.... why can't you ramp them up faster?”
• CapEx Guidance: Intel is raising its guidance on capital expenditures (~$20B vs. previous $18B), responding to strong demand indications.
  • Ed Ludlow [14:20]: “Capex this year will now be higher, about $20 billion... [CEO] Lip Bhutan is a very cautious guy... does not increase capex unless he’s sure he’ll get a return.”

10. Cyclical Nature & Investor Sentiment (14:50–17:33)

• The panel questions whether Intel’s capital allocation is truly informed by unique demand, or whether they risk repeating past cycles of overbuilding.
• Transparency with Investors: Calls for Intel to provide clearer backlog numbers and customer detail to justify CapEx and help analysts model growth.
  • Mandeep Singh [17:33]: “Final thoughts... I would like to see a backlog number. Ed alluded to LTA’s... if Intel really has that sort of visibility... they should give a backlog number so that Street can model that.”

11. Final Takeaways on Intel’s Position and Future (17:33–End)

• Sustainability is Key: The hosts agree that, while Intel’s current surge is impressive, future performance depends on converting demand into sustained, diversified growth.
  • Ed Ludlow [17:22]: "There was a point in history where Intel was the absolute best... and they had 60% margins. They're not near that. There's still a lot of stuff to fix here."

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ian King [01:50]: “Intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for the current period, indicating that a surge in data center spending is helping fuel the chip maker's turnaround.”
• Mandeep Singh [04:12]: “Kind of says to me, not a great business plan, is it?”
• Ian King [05:49]: “Nvidia has already surpassed Intel in terms of the CPU side of that equation.”
• Ed Ludlow [11:57]: “There is very high data center demand for CPU. And that is the game that Intel’s in. It’s the part of the AI story that they have been able to get and hold on to.”
• Ian King [15:16]: “Everyone realizes the demand is huge... demand far outstrips supply. So why would you not be doubling down at this time, especially for something where you had a monopoly in the past.”
• Mandeep Singh [17:33]: “If Intel really has that sort of visibility with their customers... then they should give a backlog number so that Street can model that.”

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Detailed Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:50–02:18] – Breaking News: Intel’s strong revenue outlook and data center segment surge
• [02:35–04:12] – Analysis on CPU market, Intel’s former monopoly, and changing competitive landscape
• [05:47–07:14] – How Intel stacks up against Nvidia and AMD, and business model evolution
• [08:38–09:47] – Stock price journey, sector correction, and investor sentiment shifts
• [09:54–11:38] – The CapEx story, tech sector booms, investor anxiety, and regulatory risks
• [11:57–14:50] – Insights from Intel's CEO & CFO interviews; supply constraints; CapEx bumps
• [14:50–17:22] – Sustainability of Intel’s resurgence, risk of repeating past mistakes, and calls for investor transparency
• [17:33–End] – Final thoughts on backlog transparency and Intel’s path forward

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Conclusion

This episode provided a thorough, nuanced look into Intel's momentary resurgence, placing the company's earnings beat within the broader context of the semiconductor industry’s transformation. The analysts praised Intel’s recent performance in data center CPUs, cautioned against complacency, and identified transparency and sustained innovation as essential for future success. All agreed: Intel’s fate now hinges on its ability to translate demand into lasting, system-level value in an increasingly AI- and systems-focused market.

Transcript

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[Ed Ludlow]

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[Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News

[Ian King]

this is a breaking news update from Bloomberg.

[Host/Interviewer]

Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000

[Ian King]

journalists and analysts around the world.

[Host/Interviewer]

Here's how in King Ian King, who's been covering this company and this sector for for many years, put it intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for the current period, indicating that a surge in data center spending is helping fuel the chip makers turnaround. The outlook underscores Intel's gains with data center customers, which are clamoring for chips to satisfy demand for AI computing. Sales in that segment soared 59% last quarter, more than double the pace of Intel's overall revenue.

[Mandeep Singh]

Chief Executive Officer Liputan saying the CPU is taking off in data centers all right, let's get to it. Back with us is of course Mandeep Singh with our Bloomberg Intelligence team. He oversees tech research here, Global tech research for our intelligence team. This looks like a really strong report.

[Ian King]

It is, and it's led by something we all expected, data centers. You know, that's where you are seeing the demand. We saw that in Google's results yesterday. And look, the CPU side is something that intel has had a monopoly over. The Years they obviously lost the plot, but now they seem to be coming back. The only thing I'm not very sure about is how it translates into sustainable demand because everyone else is also making CPUs. Whether it's Nvidia, whether it's Google, even the likes of AMD's, they're all focused on CPU's. So intel is not a monopoly that it used to be. And that's where the, the sustained like expectations going in the quarter were really low. So they did beat that.

[Host/Interviewer]

So then why are, why are people buying intels rather than AMD's or Nvidia? Like what if this is, is it a commodity, this part of the business?

[Ian King]

So if you're just looking for a cpu, intel still has their foundry where they make the most CPUs. And it makes sense for anybody to go to intel if you're looking for systems, which is what Google said. They're selling TPU systems now, right? A TPU system has got an accelerator, it's got cpu, it's got networking, it's got everything. That's what all these companies are doing with their data centers now is they're selling a complete system where CPU is one of the building blocks. Intel is not selling you a system, they're just selling you a chip.

[Mandeep Singh]

Kind of says to me, not a great business plan, is it? Like, so how do you make sense?

[Ian King]

Whether or not I think it's too early to compare intel to the likes of Nvidia or what Google told us with their TPU systems, it's still a very early stage opportunity for Intel. On the data center side, again, expectations were really rock bottom. So they came out, they beat that data center number by 700 million. Great. But if I look at the sustainability of what Google plans to do or what Nvidia plans to do, intel is not in that category yet. And that's where you need for them to execute much better on the data center side in terms of having a gpu, having more on the networking side, having a systems play, which is what we are hearing from AMD by the way. That's what AMD is after. That's what Broadcom is after. So I'm not ready to put intel in that basket of companies that have systems opportunities.

[Mandeep Singh]

But they need to get there.

[Ian King]

I think it's a big challenge. I mean you have to remember intel underperformed for a period of 5, 6 years where they just had things going down. So for them to come back, it's going to take a while. I mean the foundry side is where they could get help from the US government stake and they could land more customers in terms of foundry usage. But in terms of, again, comparing them to someone like Nvidia, we are far off from that.

[Host/Interviewer]

Should we compare them to Nvidia?

[Ian King]

I mean, Nvidia is making their own CPUs. And Nvidia will tell you they already generate up to $20 billion by selling CPUs as part of their system. So intel has. Nvidia has already surpassed intel in terms of the CPU side of that equation.

[Mandeep Singh]

So what to Tim's question or Tim's point, Mandeep, what is again the role of intel in the future in the world of semiconductors? There's still value there, there's still a good business there.

[Ian King]

Yeah. So think of it as traditional data centers versus AI data centers. For all the traditional data centers, intel is great because they have those servers that companies were using that they need to refresh. And now intel has the ability to give them the latest servers that, by the way, you need latest CPU servers to run these agentic workloads. So when you deploy AI, so far it was just training for inferencing. You need CPUs, and that's where if an enterprise is looking to refresh their old servers, they'll go for Intel. They won't buy Nvidia systems because you don't need to do that for your traditional data centers. You buy Nvidia systems for your AI data centers, which need a lot more power, which have different specs altogether.

[Mandeep Singh]

So who's their biggest competitor then in that particular universe?

[Ian King]

Amd.

[Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer]

Amd?

[Ian King]

Yeah. Okay, but AMD just talked about how they are focused on that systems opportunity too. So everyone realizes the larger opportunity is AI data centers. It's not your traditional data centers. So that's where the sustainability of this growth, I mean, we are coming off a very low base.

[Mandeep Singh]

Right.

[Ian King]

So yeah, they grew, you know, whatever, 60%. That's great. But can you sustain 80% type growth that Nvidia has shown they can over a period of time? And that's the real question here.

[Mandeep Singh]

So this business that seems to be kind of unique to intel, for those who are kind of doing upgrades right. On their data centers for inferencing? I mean, at some point does that go away and people are more focused on the bigger data centers or no

[Ian King]

companies are going to need it, you need more compute. The question is, how much is Nvidia going to sell in terms of CPUs versus how much opportunity is left for intel as a standalone CPU? Provider because remember Nvidia is bundling everything. Google GPUs are bundling everything and saying CPUs are just one component of agentic workloads. So why would enterprises keep buying from intel where they have to get other components from other providers?

[Host/Interviewer]

The stock is, is, is up. I mean this was the best before the, sorry, the third best performing stock in the S&P 500 in the first half of the year. But this month it's just gotten crushed. And part of that has had to do with just how, how much it's run high. I mean this was a stock that was on June 22nd at $141 per share. Now it's at about $100 a share as of the close. If you take into account the move higher right now it's at about $111 per share. What was the weakness this month that, that had investors thinking that okay, the bar is actually pretty low for this report expectations.

[Ian King]

I mean overall semis as a complex I think corrected people took a lot of profits. We even saw the memory names go down. So I don't think there was anything unique to intel over there. But with that being said, things have come back on the semi side, you know very quickly. We had, it feels like we had somewhat of a correction and then things rebounded fairly quickly and the Google report with them raising capex. I'm expecting every hyperscaler will raise capex. Well guess what, all the semiconductor names will catch a bit because of the CapEx increase.

[Host/Interviewer]

Okay, you mentioned Alphabet and we're supposed to be talking about intel right now but you mentioned Alphabet so we'll go there. Alphabet just got crushed today. Why?

[Ian King]

Because they're raising their capex.

[Host/Interviewer]

But raising capex is good.

[Ian King]

It's good for the semiconductor companies, not for someone like Alphabet. Right.

[Host/Interviewer]

In the past it's sometimes been good for a company like Alphabet because it indicates demand and you know when they spend that money they will to build infrastructure. That infrastructure will be used and generate

[Ian King]

revenue and they are showing that in their cloud segment. We talked about how Fast it's growing 82% but market will always get nervous when you are talking these big numbers. I mean we are talking about trillion dollars in capex by these five big hyperscalers next year. That's the 2027 consensus number, can we say?

[Mandeep Singh]

Because I think people think about the spend on AI and the build kind of akin to building out, you know, energy markets. Right. It's, it's expensive to do this stuff and you have to think about the longer term trends. But have the tech sector been burned enough like the oil patch? Yeah, I mean, semiconductors certainly have seen

[Ian King]

the booms and busts they have. And I mean, you drew the comparison to the energy markets and the oil market. Those are regulated companies. Imagine after all this spend.

[Mandeep Singh]

Yeah.

[Ian King]

If these companies became regulated. And guess what? You can't really maximize your profits anymore. That would be very interesting. You know, so there's always that risk with these large models. The government may decide these two companies are too powerful in terms of the models they have developed. They need to, you know, limit their hold. And that's a big risk when it comes to this capex.

[Mandeep Singh]

We already have a government that's looking at the power usage and thinking about what their responsibility is. Right. Some of the tech companies in terms of data centers.

[Host/Interviewer]

I want to bring in Ed Ludlow, the host of Bloomberg Tech. He's standing by in San Francisco. And you spoke to Dave Zisner, the Intel cfo. You also spoke to Lip Bhutan, the CEO of intel, along with Ian King and some reporting on the terminal. What did you learn from them in their commentary? That that sort of adds to what we heard in terms of numbers from this quarter.

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah, I mean, this is a CPU story. Right. There's just very high DataCenter demand for CPU. And that is the game that Intel's in. It's the part of the AI story that they have been able to get and hold on to. And you know, right now intel is in a position where it's doing everything it can to, to improve its production. You know, they are in a, in a place where demand for their CPUs in the data center server context is outpacing their improving supply. So they're doing a better job, but they're still leaving a bit of money on the table because they just cannot meet 100% of the orders that are being placed. That is, as Lit Boo put it, a good problem to have. But right now, if you look at the aftermarket trade, completely in line, what Mandeep's been outlining as well, it is the capital expenditure story once again, that's kind of moving the needle here because

[Mandeep Singh]

people have to buy and they have to buy from intel, is that it?

[Ian King]

But intel has the foundry capacity to produce that. So if they're complaining about supply. Yeah, to me that's surprising. You've got all the fabs. You're not going to TSMC to make those CPUs. Right. So I'm a little surprised there.

[Mandeep Singh]

What would be the question then? That you would be asking Lippo, like,

[Ian King]

why is there vapor shortages for your own CPUs? Like you have the foundries that are based here in the us why can't you ramp them up faster to meet the demand that you see?

[Ed Ludlow]

What do it.

[Host/Interviewer]

Just ramp it up.

[Ed Ludlow]

Come on.

[Mandeep Singh]

And Ludlow though, you know, as we continue to go through these numbers, what else is jumping out for you?

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah, well, just on Mandeep's point, I think, you know, a quarter ago when I spoke to Lip on the phone, he was very honest that they had not been doing a good job, like they were not very good at building their own products. And that is a problem. And I think what he's saying now is that's getting better, they are improving their own supply, but they're not yet that they know it's a process. I think the other thing as well, you know, with intel, you know, the foundry business, we still don't have anything concrete on which technology companies around the world are customers of intel for Foundry and their latest processes. But if you think about the capex guide to what Dave's into, the CFO told me is that capex this year will now be higher, about $20 billion. The previous guide was about 18 and it would also represent year on year capex growth. But he also absolutely underscored that Lip Bhutan is a very cautious guy. He does not deploy capital and improve or increase capex unless he's sure he's going to get a return on it. And so that's what they're trying to argue for now, that they, they see demand enough where they're willing to spend on the tooling side specifically, not the space side to, to increase that capacity because they think they have the customer, customer demand.

[Host/Interviewer]

But, but Mandeep, you know, as, as Ian King has reminded us over and over again, this stuff can be cyclical. And intel has learned the hard way that the investments don't always pay off. Do they have a, do they have to tell investors a different story? That this, this time we know that where we're spending the money is the right place to spend the money?

[Ian King]

I mean right now I think.

[Host/Interviewer]

Or is everybody just throwing money at

[Ian King]

everything and it's fine, everyone realizes the demand is huge. And you know, if there's one common thread across all the narratives we hear is that demand far outstrips supply. So why would you not be doubling down at this time, especially for something where you had a monopoly in the past until there is a product related reason. Like I said, you know, if it's that systems aspect where, you know, companies are not going to buy CPUs from you because they want more systems level type of product. Then I understand. But without that, I see no reason why they wouldn't be aggressive on Capex just because there is demand and they have the fabs.

[Mandeep Singh]

Well, at Ludlow, I mean, Liputin being cautious and careful, might that be, you know, not his downfall? I'm not going to say that. But problematic when, if the demand is there, as we're just talking about with Mandeep, you know, you want to spend to kind of make sure you don't miss out on that.

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah. I mean they again are going on the data they have available, which is customer demand. You know, they have this line at intel which so consistent on, which is like when a customer signs up to use our latest chip making process, we don't announce it. We leave it to the customer. Problem for them is none of the customers have announced it. All they'll say is that they signed loads of deals, loads of LTA's, they call them in the first six months of this year. And they were like, okay, so we have the deals. That gives us confidence to invest. I think, you know, I think we'll learn more overnight. Right. All of the sell side notes will come out. Whatever questions get asked in the call give you a sense of the psychology of where the sell sides are. But it is astonishing that the stock's up 12% in after hours, given it was up 172% going into today's close. It's like.

[Host/Interviewer]

But it got beat up. But it was at what, over 130 a few weeks ago?

[Mandeep Singh]

It was down 30% or so in the last month.

[Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer]

Right.

[Ed Ludlow]

I mean, you know, one week a market does not make, a section of market does not make. But you know, to answer, you know, there was a point in history where intel was the absolute best at this.

[Fidelity Announcer]

Yeah.

[Ed Ludlow]

And they had 60% margins. They're not near that. Right, right. There's still like a lot of stuff to fix here. And I don't think they're saying that they're close to that. They're just saying that they're making progress.

[Mandeep Singh]

Final thoughts as we wrap up from you, Mandy.

[Ian King]

I mean I would like to see a backlog number. Ed alluded to LTA's, like with Micron, they signed LTA's, but they also gave visibility into pricing and how much that backlog is in terms of those lta. So if intel really has that sort of visibility with their customers, The LTA is, then they should give a backlog number so that street can model that. You know, okay, this is how CPUs will ramp up. To me, really, it's about sustainability of growth here once the numbers get normalized because we are coming off a really low base here.

[Mandeep Singh]

No, that's a really good point.

[Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer]

Right?

[Mandeep Singh]

You got to think about where we're coming from.

[Ed Ludlow]

Ed, final thought just that, you know, they'll be pushed on giving more detail on customers. Something that did not come up. And I really, you know, I think it's interesting is, you know, we haven't discussed tariff app and the partnership that's in place with Musk. And you know, it's unlikely, but just kind of talk openly about that. But I would say that ASML got asked about it and last night Musk was name checking Micron all over the place so it could come up. And to me that's, you know, Musk is news. And there we go.

[Mandeep Singh]

No, never makes news. Good stuff, guys. Hey, thank you so much. Of course, our Ed Ludlow out there in San Francisco. He is host of Bloomberg Tech. And our Mandeep Singh right here in our studio. He is Bloomberg Intelligence global head of technology research. You guys, thank you.

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