Paul Sweeney (2:09)

One of the most read stories on the Bloomberg terminal today impacts some of these FedEx, UPS and some of these shipping companies. U.S. transportation stocks plunged Monday after Amazon.com announced expanded logistics offering. Amazon will offer freight, distribution and fulfillment and parcel shipping to businesses beyond Amazon sellers, including companies such as 3M and Lands End. Wow, that's a change. Lee Klaskow he covers all the logistics companies here, including the FedExs and the UPSs of the world. Are this seems like a big announcement. Lee put it into context for us.

Lee Klaskow (2:43)

Yeah, actually it's pretty interesting the market reaction. Amazon has been doing this quietly. A lot of the services that they announced that they're going to be offering for quite some time for two or three years now. I guess they're making an official push that they're trying to get broader or cast a wider net in terms of the customers that they can reach. We would say for the freight transportation world the sky really isn't falling. Yes, Amazon will be a competitor but we expect that the things that they're going to go after might not be the high margin businesses that the FedEx is, the UPS is of the world we're going after. And it's going to be felt by, you know, freight forwarders such as like companies like Expediters or DSV and also, also folks in the warehousing and distribution business. Like a gxo.

Scarlett Fu (3:32)

Yeah, but Amazon doesn't just stop there, right? I mean it may start there and then eventually it's going to continue building out this logistics business. How long do we think that'll take?

Lee Klaskow (3:43)

Yeah, so they're already offering these services and what they tend to do is they, they go into a market because they want to reduce their costs to serve their cost, to do their, their core competency, their main businesses, which obviously the Amazon.com business. So what they're trying to do is really take the excess capacity, the expertise that they have that they built doing things in house and kind of be able to lower the, like I said, lower the costs. How long will it take? I mean it really depends on what they're going after. We don't think they're like a huge threat to the less than truckload market. We think that, you know, for commoditized freight, yes, they can make inroads into the brokerage and freight forwarding businesses. But you know, those businesses, it's not just about executing. Right. It's about relationships. It's about being able to provide consistency and quality over time. And Amazon has to earn some of that business as well. Just because they're in the business doesn't mean people are going to go to them.

Paul Sweeney (4:40)

So how does, how does this strategy differ from what they have been doing here? Because it seems like you do see them, the trucks everywhere. So how has this changed?

Lee Klaskow (4:52)

Yeah, so you know, a lot of things that they do for other shippers, it's really kind of on a non asset basis. So those trucks you're seeing, they might own the trailers but they don't own the truck. The truck is an independent contractor that may be their brokerage business secured or, or maybe they did it through somebody else. So you know they're going to continue to do that sort of stuff where they're going to say, you know, to a 3M. 3M might have a load to go somewhere and they're, they could broker that load for them or they might, you know, store some of their stuff in their warehouses and you know, try to get it to their other distribution warehouses or maybe to the final, final mile, if you will. So, you know, they are definitely going to be incrementally encroaching on these transportation logistics businesses. But like, like I mentioned earlier, like they've been kind of doing this for two and three years and we just, we expect them to continue to, to, to build those businesses. But like I don't expect to wake up tomorrow. And all of a sudden, you know, FedEx and EPS are at a, at a disadvantage because those companies are going after higher margin business. You know, they realize that the, the B2C business, while it's a growing business, is really business and they'd rather grow their B2B. They'd rather grow into higher margin verticals like health care. And they're really focusing on the small to mid sized customers and that's probably where Amazon's going to compete with them the most.

Scarlett Fu (6:18)

So Lee, given all of that and thank you for, you know, just kind of talking down people who might be panicking, you're looking at FedEx down 9%. You're looking at UPS down almost 10%. Is that just an overreaction?

Lee Klaskow (6:32)

I mean, I would say so. You know, these, these names have had somewhat of a decent run as of late. Maybe UPS or I should say maybe FedEx more than UPS. But you know, I think it's just, yeah, it's really kind of a bit of an overact reaction because fundamentally FedEx and UPS are no different than they were yesterday.

Scarlett Fu (6:58)

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after if your finance team spends more time finding data than using it. If there's one entity here and one here and one here and one here. If scaling your business feels like starting over, you need the Intuit erp. Intuit Enterprise Suite is the AI native ERP solution that's powerful, painless and proven. Learn more@intuit.com ERP support for the show comes from public.

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Lately it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades. And others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth on public. You can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the Confetti Retirement Accounts Yep. High Yield cash. Yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools and customer support that actually helps go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by Public Holdings Brokerage Services by Public Investing Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor crypto services by ZeroHash all investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures@public.com disclosures small businesses are

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Scarlett Fu (9:41)

Tyson Foods the meat processor coming in with results. And the big question here is what happens between beef and chicken and pork? They're kind of moving in opposite directions, but protein is protein and there's a lot of demand.

Paul Sweeney (9:56)

That's what they tell me.

Scarlett Fu (9:57)

Jen is joining us from Princeton, Jennifer Bartashas, our Senior Retail Staples and Packaged Food Analyst. So Jennifer, just walk us through here. Protein demand and how chicken and pork purchases are definitely benefiting. But even though there's a lot of demand for beef, this is a money losing business.

Jennifer Bartashas (10:17)

Yeah. Good morning. So you know protein demand is through the roof. Consumers are continuing to seek protein across all the different meal parts of the day and so this is really a great tailwind for companies like Tyson that are involved in multiple proteins. Chicken is by far the most stable part of the company at the moment. It's continuing to grow pork Demand is also pretty solid. And you know, everybody likes their bacon, you know, and that sort of thing. But as you said, Scarlett, pork, I mean, beef really is the, the big challenge. And that's because we have record low cattle supply in the United States right now. And that's just keeping the cost of animals very high, which is leading to the operating losses that we're seeing in the beef segment.

Paul Sweeney (11:01)

Can you explain to me why we think about chicken, beef, I don't know, pork as protein? When did that enter the lexicon?

Jennifer Bartashas (11:12)

Yeah, Paul, it's a good question. I mean, historically we used to talk about center of the plate and that just sort of implied it was a meat product. But in the past maybe six, seven, eight years, what we've seen is when we had the big spike of interest around plant based protein, the dialogue really shifted to protein in general. And consumers are looking to find protein in a lot of different ways. And so meat is obviously a natural protein, but so are legumes, so are, you know, other plant based types. Dairy is a great protein. And so now it's become more of a broader topic where protein is sort of that more generic word that everybody's using.

Scarlett Fu (11:53)

Right. And Tyson is kind of in a sweet spot here given that it processes chicken, pork and beef. We know the doj, the Department of Justice is investigating the meatpacking industry because of those record high beef prices. How involved is Tyson? I mean, is it a target, is it a potential beneficiary if the government focuses more on foreign meat processors?

Jennifer Bartashas (12:14)

Yeah, the government is, they've specifically really called out foreign meat processors like jbs, you know, but you know, Tyson does have a pretty good sized beef business. At the end of the day, you know, a lot of this, this, this sentiment coming from the government is about the whole idea of affordability. And people point to beef as prices that are just have gone up and up and up and up. But there is a supply demand equation behind that that accounts for why those prices are still high. And so, you know, when it comes to collusion on price fixing or that there's something nefarious going on, I think that sometimes kind of that, that subject of affordability overshadows the fact that we just have a basic supply demand equation imbalance. And that's really, you know, as we see it, something that's not going to change for the next probably two or three years.

Paul Sweeney (13:04)

Why is that? Why is it going to have that supply and demand out of balance for beef?

Jennifer Bartashas (13:10)

It's that we just don't have enough cattle being raised to be processed. And we see no signs on the horizon really right now that ranchers are retaining more cows to have calves, to increase the size of the herds. And that comes from a lot of different things. It comes from higher interest rates. It costs more to raise the animals. It comes from weather. You have to have pretty good weather to have the pastures that you need in order to raise those animals. And right now there's just a lot of risk in that. And so we haven't seen the inclination to increase that number of cows that are of the cattle that are being raised. And until you have a better supply and demand stays high, it's just going to keep meaning high prices for the consumer.

Scarlett Fu (13:56)

Yeah. And we know that Tyson is trying to make some adjustments on its end right size, its beef unit. It closed a plant in Nebraska. It cut shifts at a Texas plant. But Jennifer, how much of this is really beyond Tyson's control?

Jennifer Bartashas (14:09)

Well, they really can't control the size of the, of the cattle herds, you know, so I think the company has done very, very good job of looking at what they can control, taking the actions needed, whether it's closing plants, reducing shifts and optimizing kind of their network. And then when the cattle herd comes back, remember, it takes 18 months, you know, for a cow to be born to get to the point where it's ready to be processed. There's plenty of, there's plenty of notice when the herds start to rebuild that they can adjust their capacity if needed. And so right now, I think Tyson is taking all the prudent measures needed to sort of optimize what they can control.

Paul Sweeney (14:49)

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. Support for the show comes from Public. Lately it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades, and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth on public. You can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts. Yep. High yield cash. Yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools and customer support that actually helps go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by Public Holdings Brokerage services by Public Investing Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor Crypto Services by ZeroHash all investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures@public.com disclosures small businesses are

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the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities and drive growth. With a widespread presence in communities across the country, Chase for Business supports small business owners at a local level that makes it possible for you to connect, learn from each other and grow together. There's a real commitment to seeing small businesses succeed. The Chase for Business team has knowledge and expertise that span a wide range of financial areas. They can help you make more informed decisions as you navigate the complexities of running your business. They'll help your business grow with individual guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more@chase.com business chase for business Make More of what's Yours the Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Member FDIC Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase Co. We buy insurance for

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Paul Sweeney (17:41)

We had some news out of Norwegian cruise lines which was a little strange I think given some of the other cruise operators and their results. But Norwegian came out with some a profit drop, some tepid guidance and stock is taking it on the chin today. Brian Nagar, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Gaming Lodging Analyst. He also covers the cruise lines here. Talk to us about Norwegian Is your business unique, Brian, versus some of the other companies we saw before?

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Cruise Lines) (18:04)

Yeah, they just installed a new CEO in February. They're going through a bit of a realignment, some operational changes and marketing changes. I think that was a big part of what's really happened here. They are guiding a 3 to 5% decline in net revenue yield for 2026 and this is the same environment where Royal Caribbean is looking for a 2% increase. So obviously a bit of a disparity And I think a lot of this is because part of the reason one of the prior CEO had left was they've not done a great job recently in commercializing their Caribbean product, aligning all their private islands and the water parks with their new cruise ships. And I think that's part of why they've underperformed. That's also why you think about why they cut their profit guidance 13%. A third of that was from fuel costs, which is basically due to the war in Iran. The other 2/3 was not from fuel costs. So presumably something is changing operationally. Got it. A number of operators have seen pressure in Europe because of the Middle east conflict in terms of European cruise demand. But obviously Norwegian here is seeing something worse.

Scarlett Fu (19:04)

So this sounds like it's a execution issue. And we also know that Norwegian is a target of activist investors. Elliott Management has built more than a 10% stake at least according to reports back in February. So when it comes to Norwegian, the company says the war is impacting all three of its brands. Who are Norwegian's customers compared with other cruise operators or is there just overlap?

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Cruise Lines) (19:26)

First of all, I do think that the kind of mid, upper mid market Norwegian cruise line brand has been more affected. The luxury brands like Oceana Region Seven Seas has been more resilient. So that's something kind of disparity we've seen across the travel industry. But they've really had to work on their marketing strategy. I mean they are taking steps to address some of the prior missteps. That is to say they're going to reducing their SGA costs by 15%. They're shaving about 125 million off of marketing costs. So they're kind of trying to target their marketing much more effectively. So they are going through a series of changes under a new CEO. That being said, obviously a disappointing performance, particularly given the strength of some of those brands to see such a significant guidance cut. Even putting aside what we know about the impact of Iran on European cruises and fuel costs, this is still a disappointment.

Paul Sweeney (20:20)

So one analyst on Wall street writes, and I'll quote you here is pretty funny quote. This is nclh. That's the ticker we are dealing with here. And by now you should have learned to always expect the unexpected, AKA expect the worst. Is this, this company have a management credibility problem?

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Cruise Lines) (20:38)

I don't, I don't think this has always been true. But there were obviously missteps that led up to the CEO change happened in February along with that replenishment of the board, as they called it. New board members and along with that they are trying to under new CEO undergo a series of changes. Realigning people, you know, 50% reduction in salary and benefits cost means they're really revisiting the entire off onshore infrastructure. So there are some company specific things here and I think you see it in the stock price action. You know, today in trading, Norwegian is fully underperforming.

Paul Sweeney (21:15)

This could be new CEO, kitchen sink, this thing. And if that's the case, set the bar low. Set the bar low. If you believe in management, this is your buying opportunity. That, that could be the bullish call, right?

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Cruise Lines) (21:27)

It could be.

Paul Sweeney (21:27)

I mean it comes down to a call on management.

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Cruise Lines) (21:29)

Yeah. This is also, I think a not relatively known new CEO. I think we have to give him time to execute. But at the same time there were events that led up to this board and management change and now they're going through this process of essentially realigning. Restructuring happens to be in an unfortunate backdrop at the same time that you have this war in Iran affecting both fuel costs and European cruise demand. So they're navigating both industry as well as company specific issues.

Scarlett Fu (21:56)

Okay, we have one more cruise line operator that will be reporting. Viking holdings reporting in 10 days. Paul is going to go on his first cruise later on this year and he's already booked it. What do we think Viking is going to say? Is it, how much of a, that a similar story is it going to tell to the other cruise line operators, Royal Caribbean and Carnival?

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Cruise Lines) (22:15)

Yeah, I think the extent they're involved in this kind of luxury river cruising market.

Scarlett Fu (22:19)

Very. Paul Sweeney.

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Cruise Lines) (22:20)

The other part of the business is ocean cruising. So it's kind of a hybrid that is a bit of a niche. And generally speaking across the travel industry, high end luxury offerings have been outperforming kind of more mass market opportunities. So they, and they have also their yield growth has been outperforming. So while it's not necessarily representative of the entire ocean cruising industry, it is a niche that's done pretty well in this environment.

Paul Sweeney (22:43)

Yeah, I was surprised at the price tag that came along with this thing.

Scarlett Fu (22:48)

Pleasantly surprised.

Paul Sweeney (22:49)

No, it's kind of like Wowzer.

Scarlett Fu (22:53)

But they didn't come back to you and say like, hey, we're adding a fuel surcharge by the way. Right?

Paul Sweeney (22:57)

No, no they didn't. So we'll have to. So that's, that's in October.

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Cruise Lines) (23:00)

High end product.

Scarlett Fu (23:02)

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

Paul Sweeney (23:07)

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Scarlett Fu (24:20)

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Scarlett Fu (26:36)

GameStop making a bid for eBay, a company that is four times its size, $56 billion. I'm trying to get my head around it because GameStop is a meme stock and its retail stores like, I don't know, they don't look that busy a lot of the time.

Paul Sweeney (26:53)

I know.

Scarlett Fu (26:53)

And so we need to make sense of all this. Spencer Soper covers Amazon, a bunch of ebay, a bunch of other companies for us on the west coast, but he is in New York today. Spencer, great to see you in New York.

Spencer Soper (27:06)

Thank you.

Scarlett Fu (27:07)

Help us make sense of this. What is the thinking behind GameStop? Ryan Cohen, who of course is the guy behind GameStop now looking to buy ebay.

Spencer Soper (27:16)

Well, the thinking he's presented it is that he's going to do a much better job than the current CEO Jamie Ioannoni. But that's where he's got a, the most important thing for him to do now is to, to convince lenders that that's the case because who the heck knows where this money is going to come from. GameStop has 9 billion in cash. That's quite a bit short. They've said they have a high confidence letter from TD Bank. I don't even know what that means. I think if I go on the used car lot, they're usually pretty confident they can get me financing, you know, but so that, so there's some potential 20 billion dollar offer there. And then a big question is where's the rest of this money coming from? Are they counting on equity and what is the confidence of ebay shareholders on that? It just sounds like it's, it's going to be a heck of a sales pitch. He's going to have to do to. To either find other sources of funding or convince shareholders that somehow this deal is, Is worth that gap?

Paul Sweeney (28:11)

Yeah. I mean, did we have any reason to believe that there was a potential tie at that, or the GameStop had such ambitions, or did this really come out of kind of left field?

Spencer Soper (28:20)

I've covered ebay for years, and it surprised me. I hadn't, like, I've always thought ebay could certainly be a. Be an attractive target for some company, but GameStop never really rose. I just, I never saw them as really being in gobbler mode.

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Spencer Soper (28:35)

You know, and to your point. Yeah, there's a GameStop near me, and it's the place people, like, kill time when they're waiting for their subway sandwich to be made next door, you know, and so it's. Yeah, I just, I, it was a surprise. Then are there, are there legit potential synergies maybe? I mean, ebay's been focused on these core categories like luxury items, car parts, those sorts of things. I haven't really heard video games come up at all on their earnings calls. They do sell those things, and there is a used game market, and there, there are a lot of enthusiasts, and there are limited edition things which ebay can.

Scarlett Fu (29:09)

Collectibles.

Spencer Soper (29:10)

Right, collectibles, Exactly. And limited edition releases, you know, and a lot of times those things resurface on ebay. So, so there's, there's something there. I just, I just don't know if. If GameStop is the one to pull it off or if they're going to be able to find the money to do it.

Scarlett Fu (29:23)

Right. GameStop offering $125 a share for eBay. That's a 20% premium to eBay's last close on Friday. The stock this morning up about 5% and trading at just below $110. There's a pretty big gap there. So what does that tell you, Spencer?

Spencer Soper (29:40)

Yeah, there's definitely a lot of skepticism in the, in the market. And that's what I, I heard from an analyst this morning. Longtime ebay shareholder was just questioning of this. Some kind of pump and dump thing. And that's going to be the, that's going to be the big. The big question is, is, is just sustainable, you know, even if, even if they find the money to, to buy ebay and get, get some lenders to loan them money to buy ebay, how heavy of a debt burden is ebay going to carry on the other. Other side of this? And how sustainable will it be?

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