Apple Slides Most Since 2025 After Supply Shortages Hurt Outlook

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast: "Apple Slides Most Since 2025 After Supply Shortages Hurt Outlook"

Date: July 31, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu
Featured Guests: Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), Vincent Piazza (Bloomberg Intelligence Oil & Gas Analyst), Randall Williams (Sports Analyst)

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the market's reaction to Apple's sharp stock decline following its latest earnings report and supply chain challenges, plus analysis of big moves in oil and gas earnings and a deep dive into global soccer's (FIFA) commercial upheaval. Regular contributors and guest experts break down what drives market sentiment, company outlooks, and the business behind the headlines.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

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1. Apple's Earnings Disappointment and Supply Chain Realities

[01:40 – 04:41] Main Discussion: Paul Sweeney & Gene Munster

• Apple's Stock Drops: Following strong performance leading up to the earnings call (up 22% in the last month), Apple’s shares fell about 9.3% after reporting results and guidance that disappointed Wall Street.

• Gene Munster's Analysis:

  • Apple’s guidance for September shows revenue growth of 9–11%, versus prior expectations for 12%.
  • Despite great iPhone (up 22% YoY) and Mac sales (up ~30%, unusually high), Apple pulled forward sales into the previous quarter, leaving limited inventory and ability to meet upcoming demand.
  • Memory chip cost increases explained “maybe 1–2%” of the revenue dip; the bigger factor was inventory pull-forward due to supply constraints.
  • Lead times on Apple products are now weeks instead of same-day—a clear signal of constraint.

  Notable Quote:

  "Effectively what happened is they stole supply... and pulled it into the June quarter. There’s still ample demand, but they just don’t have as much."
  — Gene Munster (02:59)

• Market Impact: When analysts must “go to the subtraction key” (revise estimates down), it creates discomfort and negative sentiment for high-flying stocks like Apple.

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2. Tesla & SpaceX: The Case for a Master Company

[04:41 – 07:43] Main Discussion: Paul Sweeney & Gene Munster

• Rumors of Tesla China Spinout and SpaceX Merger:

  • Munster believes the probability of Tesla’s China ops being spun out and paving the way for a larger SpaceX-Tesla combination is increasingly likely—now at 92%.
  • Musk's history of structuring the China business for separability is cited as supporting evidence.

  Notable Quote:

  "He’s going to just keep rolling up his businesses into a master company...the path to a $10 trillion company is as well laid at that point."
  — Gene Munster (06:29)

• Investor Perspective: Bringing SpaceX and Tesla together could:

  • Combine tech and operational innovation.
  • Reduce redundancies, foster tighter teams.
  • Further boost investor confidence and market cap.

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3. Big Oil Earnings: Chevron, ExxonMobil & the Geopolitics of Supply

[10:15 – 14:34] Main Discussion: Paul Sweeney & Vincent Piazza

• Chevron and ExxonMobil Overview:

  • Chevron: Clean operational quarter, high free cash flow, buybacks, and dividend increases; $8B debt reduction.
  • Exxon: Softer downstream results, slightly diminished by ongoing issues in the Strait of Hormuz.

  Notable Quote:

  "Combined $32 billion of free cash flow in the quarter for both companies. You’re getting that back in dividends, you’re getting that back in buybacks."
  — Vincent Piazza (11:18)

• Strategic Use of Windfall:

  • Chevron plans to expand operations in Venezuela, projecting output growth from 280,000 to 400,000 barrels by 2028.
  • Geopolitical risk in Hormuz prompts recasting of capital flows—longer shipping routes, more storage, and more investment in the Americas:
    • Higher global floor prices for oil.
    • Shift in capital toward North, Central, and South America resource development.

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4. FIFA’s Commercial Spinoff Crisis & Football Governance

[16:57 – 22:45] Main Discussion: Paul Sweeney & Randall Williams

• FIFA's Privatization Plan: FIFA proposes to spin off/privatize commercial operations, seeking up to $4.2 billion investment—prompting outrage and possible boycott talk from UEFA and other federations.

  • Notably, AP reports a senior FIFA official resigning amid the fallout.

• Political and Financial Stakes:

  • Investors, including Strive Capital and political ties, raise suspicions.
  • UEFA, CONCACAF, and other stakeholders feel blindsided—actual discussions had been ongoing for longer than the announcement suggests.
  • Tensions over governance, valuation, and consultation.

  Notable Quotes:

  "It’s harder to say soccer is not for sale if you get $100 million."
  — Randall Williams (20:44)

  "If England, France, Mexico, the US, all of these organizations are saying no, who is going to be participating in this World Cup?"
  — Randall Williams (18:31)

• Key Concerns:

  • Insufficient consultation with major federations.
  • Questions over fair market process (“Why didn’t they run a process?”), governance, and risk of money not reaching where intended.

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Memorable Moments and Notable Quotes

• On Apple's Q3 dynamic:

  "They stole supply and pulled it into the June quarter...if they’d had currency and supply constant, I bet they would have guided to better than 15% growth for the September quarter."
  — Gene Munster (04:24)

• On Musk’s ambitions:

  "He’s going to just keep rolling up his businesses into a master company."
  — Gene Munster (05:39)

• On Chevron's Venezuela ambitions:

  "Chevron’s output in Venezuela will likely grow through 2028."
  — Vincent Piazza (12:10)

• On FIFA valuation controversy:

  "FIFA's mistake was to value its spinoff at $20 billion. What it should have done is value it at five times that...$100 million goes a long way."
  — Randall Williams (20:19)

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Important Timestamps

• Apple stock and guidance analysis – 01:40
• Gene Munster explains supply chain pull-forward – 02:25–04:41
• Discussion of Tesla, SpaceX merger rumors – 04:41–07:43
• Chevron/ExxonMobil earnings breakdown – 10:15–13:15
• Geopolitics and oil supply chain shifts – 12:44–14:34
• FIFA privatization crisis & boycott threats – 16:57–22:45

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Summary Table

| Segment | Time | Main Speaker(s) | Topic/Quote | |---------|---------|-------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Apple | 01:40 | Gene Munster | "They stole supply … into the June quarter." | | Tesla | 04:41 | Gene Munster | SpaceX/Tesla combination probability up to 92% | | Oil | 10:15 | Vincent Piazza | "$32 billion of free cash flow in the quarter for both companies..." | | FIFA | 16:57 | Randall Williams | "If England, France, Mexico, the US, all of these organizations are saying no..." | | FIFA | 20:19 | Randall Williams | "$100 million goes a long way. ... Whereas $20 million, I'm not so sure." |

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In Summary

This episode delivers sharp, expert insight into what’s roiling markets for tech, energy, and sports business. Apple’s stumble is shown as a consequence not of waning demand, but operational inventory timing—providing a nuanced “pull-forward” explanation. The prospects of massive corporate restructuring at Tesla/SpaceX offer a glimpse into how visionaries reshape capital markets. In oil, the episode underscores how geopolitics and logistics now influence long-term capital allocation. And in sports business, FIFA’s controversial equity deal lights up the risks of governance and global trust in the highest levels of professional football.

Listeners come away with a clear sense of what’s driving today’s big business stories—enriched by expert voices and sharp questions, and all in the crisp, data-driven, market-aware tone that defines Bloomberg Intelligence.

Transcript

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[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

Going back to the markets, the Dow not doing anything. The S and P not doing anything. But within the Dow, the best performers, Amazon up almost 15%. The worst performer is Apple down about 9.3% following yesterday's quarterly results and the Outlook. Gene Munster is the authority on Apple. He is managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management and of course years before that he was a sell side analyst on Apple, one of the most known. Jean, good to speak with you. Partially I'm guessing that Apple's decline today, outsized decline, has a lot to do with the fact that it was an outperformer in the lead up to these results. What did we really learn from Apple that can be attributed to decisions it made versus things that are beyond its control like really high memory chip prices.

[Gene Munster (Apple Analyst)]

Well, this is less about the high memory prices and more just some numbers about where the guidance is going To Scott, just to take a step back, they guided the 12 or the shoes at 12% revenue growth through September they guided to 9 to 11. Now when you find this subtraction key with a company, a stock that's been up 22% over the past month versus the NASDAQ up 1%. When analysts go to that subtraction key that is negative for the stock. There's just no explanation that can get investors comfortable. And I think that's kind of where the conversation ended. But I want to go through that a little bit and answer your question about, like what, what's the substance of what's going on? Is this about memory costs? The answer is a little bit about memory costs. Maybe if you think about the 10% decline, probably 1 or 2% is about just higher memory costs. It's going to have a 50bps negative impact on their margins in the September quarter. The bigger picture is on revenue and effectively what happened. This is a pretty unique dynamic, but it makes a ton of sense, is that the iPhone has been on fire. It was up 22% in the June quarter. If you look at over the past year, it's been up 22%. That compares to over the past five years, it's up 3% on average. So we've got this huge surge in iPhone demand. And separately the Mac up almost 30%. Typically it's up a few percent. And what that means is that they have essentially been pulling through inventory. Remember how tight inventory is in part because of these pricing deals that they have to try to keep costs low. They're limited to the amount of capacity that they've had. So they pulled inventory essentially from September into the June quarter, and that means they just simply don't have as much. And the way that I'm going to back test this, and it's be pretty easy for your listeners to do this, is just look at what the lead times on the products are right now. They're running a few weeks now that typically would be same day on many of their products. And that's an indication that they are in fact constrained. And so effectively what happened is they stole demand from the September quarter and pulled it into the June quarter. There's still a ton of demand out there. Stole supply, excuse me, and pulled it into the June quarter. There's still ample demand. And I think at the end of the day, just to put it in the most basic terms, street was at 12% revenue growth for September. If they would have kind of had currency constant and supply constant, I bet they would have guided to better than 15% growth for the September quarter.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

So, Jeanne, you were busy this week as a lot of tech investors were with all the earnings, but I got to ask you about this story, Wall Street Journal story about Tesla spinning out its China business to maybe pave the way for a SpaceX merger. Does that seem reasonable to you?

[Gene Munster (Apple Analyst)]

Yeah, I would say it's reasonable and it is going to increase the probability that I have put on this happening in the next few years from 90 to probably 92%. About a week ago I had it at 80%. And then the Tesla earnings call, they let a question in about the two companies coming together, which surprised me. Elon started to answer the question and then legal took over and said really we can't say much. Then Elon grabbed the mic back and started to pontificate about the benefits of these two companies being together. That took me from 80 to 90. Now I'm at 92. The answer is it just makes a ton of sense. This China piece, I think is grossly underappreciated about the tensions from the technology companies. Geopolitically, as I've been meeting with many companies that have ties in these leading private companies that have ties to China, it's pretty clear that they want as much separation as possible. And so my view is that we're probably a couple years away. Elon's always been, has always structured the China business to be easily separated from the US business for a lot of reasons. And one of them is his master plan. Just don't, it's very simple. He's going to just keep rolling up his businesses into a master company. And so to answer your question, Paul, is I think that this, it makes a ton of sense and even though they're saying it's not going on, I think it very much is in the cards.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

Sounds like it'd be good for Elon Musk from the way he operates and runs his company. Would it be good for investors?

[Gene Munster (Apple Analyst)]

Now that's, that's the key question. And I think the, the answer is that the simple answer is yes from two levels. On an operational piece, which is most important is that when you bring things together, you reduce redundancies. And there's this long standing view within tech companies that are highly innovative that smaller teams are more effective. When you have smaller, tighter teams and effectively you can do that, I think that's one piece of bringing all these together. I think their visions are very similar obviously around being AI first space AI with SpaceX, physical AI terrestrial with Tesla, all of that makes sense. The other reason why I think investors will be rewarded is that the dynamic around Tesla and SpaceX to a lesser extent right now is really about unless investor confidence around the long term retail investor confidence. And I think that that unwavering confidence would only increase if they brought some of these together. And that has really explained how Tesla can still be a $1.2 trillion company despite having many of its targets pushed back for years. And so I think you put these two together, it would undoubtedly be the biggest company. I think you put them together. You're I think the path to a $10 trillion company is as well laid at that point.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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I think that's a better way to think about the end of life stage versus quote unquote retirement.

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Earnings coming out of the energy patch here. ExxonMobil, Chevron, some of the big boys reported here. Let's get in touch with an expert on this stuff, Vincent Piazza. He's a senior research analyst. He covers all the oil and gas companies for Bloomberg Intelligence. No idea where he is. It could be Philly, Princeton, Wilmington. You never know where this guy is. Vince, what's going on in your world of big oil?

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There you go.

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Yeah. So look, if you think about coming into the quarter, Exxon and Chevron, significant optimism coming into quarter, just considering where we are on WTI and Brent. But you know, Chevron posted a much, much cleaner quarter operationally. Significant free cash flow, buybacks and dividends were up. The debt side, you know, Chevron bought back roughly $8 billion of debt. So look, strong quarter operationally for Chevron, a little more optimism coming into the quarter. For Exxon, it's roughly 2%. Little softer on the downstream side. But Paul, combined 32 billion of free cash flow in the quarter for both companies, you're getting that back in dividends, you're getting that back in buybacks as well. But for Exxon, Paul, a little bit more of an impact from Hormuz in 3Q. So some thorny issues that they have to deal with. But for Chevron, much, much cleaner quarter.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

So does this windfall help them do anything that they wouldn't be able to do otherwise? You talked about how Chevron is going to reduce debt and increase share buybacks. But operationally, can it think bigger than that?

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Yeah. So if you think about Venezuela for Chevron, Chevron's output in Venezuela will likely grow through 2028. Again, put the geopolitics aside. Definitely an operational ambition for them, but one that will see production from roughly 280,000 barrels to 400,000. Not a big mover right now. But think about over the next couple of years, what could happen there with a more sanguine political backdrop in the country.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Hey, Vince, what are your companies saying about the Strait of Horror moves? I'm kind of of the opinion that this thing's never going to be really open again because it just takes the threat of an attack to kind of shut things down. What are your companies saying?

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Well, I can tell you what they've met and consider that most of my coverage universe is US and domestic. But what we see the industry doing is recasting those capital flows, rejiggering, reordering seaborne maritime logistics to dilute the impact of the region. And what does that mean? Well, it means extending transit times by up to two, three weeks and moving barrels from geopolitical and conflict zones. What does that mean in general, though? It means a higher floor price, and it also means a logistics environment that provides for greater redundancy, whether it's floating storage, whether it's more land storage as well. But it does suggest that over time we do see that part of the world being diluted so that you get away from those conflict zones. It means more capital coming to North America, whether it's capital invested in the US Or Canada to get those molecules out in the export market. It means more dollars heading down to South America, too, whether it's Venezuela, whether it's Argentina and even Brazil as well. So you could see over the next several years greater capital flowing to the Western Hemisphere, more barrels in FLO storage. More barrels and land storage to dilute the impact of subsequent geopolitical events.

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Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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FIFA has plans to privatize some of its commercial business. I think I've got that right. Okay, that's the global FIFA, UEFA, they're the European dudes. They're not happy with it. And look at this. Just cross the tape. I think this is AP Senior FIFA Official Resigns Over Infantino's World Cup Selloff Plan Second says it Deceived staff Wow. Randall Williams joins us here, U.S. sports. This is a big story, Randall. This is global soccer. We just finished with the World Cup. People have a great appreciation for football maybe now than they had before the World Cup. What's going on here?

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

Listen, FIFA is trying to make as much money as they possibly can. And you know, for me personally, I thought the World cup was going to come to a close. I would be able to take a deep breath. But obviously we're witnessing a global fight right now we have FIFA who is over the World cup, which is the biggest, largest tournament and the most famous tournament. It's the one the players love the most. It's the one that the teams participating, they have a deep desire to win it. But now they're saying, you know, we can raise up to $4.2 billion from Joshua Kushner, Strive Capital. And of course, he is the son in law of President Trump who FIFA cater to.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

The brother of the son in law.

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

The brother of the son in law. Thank you for correcting that. You know, FIFA catered to President Trump all while he was here. And you have UEFA who's over many of the countries who were participants. France, England, Spain. So many who are just like, hold on, enough is enough, enough is enough.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

So UEFA is now talking about boycotting the World Cup. That's not for another four years. So is this kind of an empty threat? Because there's a lot of time between now and the next World Cup?

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

I don't think it's an empty threat. I think that they're very, very serious about this because concacaf, who is over in North America, Central America and the Caribbean, is also in, and we have yet to see what South America has to say. Well, and so if everyone raises their hand and says, we're done with this, then, of course, these are membership organizations. These aren't the members themselves. But of course, to be a part of UEFA, you have to be a member. And I think FIFA as well. So if England, France, Mexico, the us, all of these organizations are saying no, who is going to be participating in this World Cup? And it's not just the 2031, it's next year's Women's World Cup. That, of course, is top of mind as well.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

One of the surprising aspects to me is JP Morgan is advising FIFA here. I'm surprised JP Morgan would get within a million miles of this. Well, JP Morgan, not a lot of money. And the potential political fallout.

[Commercial Narrator]

Ugly.

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

Yep, it's true. That's true. However, J.P. morgan tried to do the Super League years ago. That. That fell apart as well. And then outside of that, the upside is tremendous. You know, FIFA's talking about expanding the World cup to 64 teams, I believe. There was a report from the Times of London that just dropped a couple hours or maybe minutes ago that said that they're trying to do this by August. And the vote for this $4.2 billion would be in September. So who stands to profit between now and then? If you expanded before this investment goes in, of course, the investors immediately make a ton of money.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

Your colleague Giles Turner in London wrote a really interesting newsletter where he said FIFA's mistake was value its spinoff at $20 billion. What it should have done is value it at five times that amount and make it so that the members, each country, would get even more of a payout, so that it'd be uneconomical for them to say no.

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

We were talking about this before, you know, we went live. And if you are France, if you are England, if you are Spain, if you're Portugal, if you're Croatia, $20 million is nice, but a good portion of these soccer federations can make that money in their sleep.

[Tony Ayo (Real Report Host)]

And

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

$100 million goes a long way. You can, you know, might be able to build a training facility, you might be able to hire coaches that can better develop talent. All of those things, whereas 20 million, I'm not so sure.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

It's harder to say soccer is not for sale if you get 100 million.

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

Exactly. And of course, you have to remember that some of the issues that exist in global football outside of Europe are often the money distribution. So after you send this check, who's going to be distributing the money? Is that person going to be like, oh, we got $20 million, I'm going to take 5 of it. Oh, no one's looking. I'm going take it to another two and a half. And now, you know, you have 12 and a half left to distribute amongst the players, amongst other officials and everyone else like that. There's no governance over that. It would just be a blank check to these federations and then they would have to deal with it. So it's. It's on life support, I would say.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Is UEFA and the other critics of the FIFA's plan, are they critical of the fact that they're selling a piece of FIFA in general, or is it to whom they are selling?

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

I think it's both.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Okay.

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

I think it's both. Number one is that if you were going to sell a part of this, then you would want to consult them to begin with. You would want to consult UEFA, you would want to consult concacaf, say, hey, we're thinking about doing this. Then you could say you could get some preliminary thoughts on it. Everyone was shocked, you know, a week ago or earlier this week when they dropped this and said, you know what? We're going to be raising this money.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

But your reporting has shown that these discussions have been going on for a while. It's not like it was last week.

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

Exactly. So now that makes you think you. You go back all the way to December of last year, President Trump gets a Peace Prize, and then we have, you know, these different wars that go on. But also, how long has FIFA been considering this, knowing that this was going to be the most successful World cup of all time? And why did FIFA not have conversations with other private equity firms, right, such as CVC, such as a 6th Street? There's a bunch of them who might be interested in doing this. But those conversations probably did not happen.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

It's called running a process. Why did they not run a process? The process is, here's a pitch book, we're gonna send it out to two. You cover yourself, right, and do it, and. And then you create competition. You drive up the value and all that kind of stuff.

[Sports Analyst (Randall Williams)]

And you brought up JP Morgan really quickly. What about the other banks? Why? I'M not saying there's anything wrong with JP Morgan, but I imagine that there are other banks who might globally who might want to be in this, and they're not.

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[Tony Ayo (Real Report Host)]

Hartford, Connecticut this is Tony Ayo from the Real Report with Tony Ayo and Uncle Murder. You ever notice how everything keeps going up? Rent, streaming, even extra Sosa at your favorite burrito spot. But with Boost Mobile, you don't have to play the Willis Go up soon game. Boost Mobile offers an unlimited talk, text and data plan at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for Life. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up. Only at boost mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan.

[Commercial Narrator]

Now more than ever, America needs a laugh. Enter the Super Troopers to the rescue. Vermont's finest and most shockingly offensive mustachioed highway patrol officers return to the big screen in Super Troopers 3 with more pullover pranks and more over the top shenanigans than ever in this latest installment of the cult comedy classic Rod Barva's wildly over the top Indian engagement to Thorny sisters spirals out of control. A debaucherous bachelor party, a wedding that Thorny is desperate to stop, and a dangerous drug smuggling ring all threaten the troops, friendships and future. Fill your leader of cola, grab your buds and roll up to the multiplex for Super Troopers 3 only in theaters August 7th. Get tickets. Meow.