Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast

Episode: Apple’s Upbeat Forecast Clouded by Cost Fears
Date: January 30, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu, Paul Sweeney
Featured Guests: Dan Ives (Wedbush Securities), Danielle DiMartino Booth (QI Research), Vince Piazza (Bloomberg Intelligence)

Episode Overview

In this episode, the Bloomberg Intelligence team dives deep into three main topics:

1. Apple's latest earnings report—strong holiday performance but uncertainty over margins and AI strategy.
2. The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair—potential direction for monetary policy and confirmation hurdles.
3. Oil and gas earnings—dissecting ExxonMobil and Chevron’s latest results and the outlook for the energy sector.

1. Apple Earnings: Strong Results, Strategic Questions

Main Discussion Points

• Outstanding Quarterly Performance

  • Apple delivered robust earnings, particularly in iPhone sales and growth in China, considered a "massive tailwind."
  • Despite these positives, the stock fell 1% year-to-date, puzzling the hosts and guest.

• Market Reaction Vs. Performance

  • Dan Ives remarks on the disconnect between Apple’s reported results and the tepid market reaction.

    “This is one where I think this stock should be up 5 to 8% relative…to what they perform and the guidance. But I think it also just comes down to…show us the playbook.” (Dan Ives, 01:58–02:23)

• AI Strategy and Competitive Position

  • Apple has lagged peers in artificial intelligence adoption (“watched AI from the stands”).
  • The new Google Gemini partnership is seen as the first significant public step forward.
  • Apple is hiring external AI talent, a notable cultural shift.

• Margins & Supply Chain Concerns

  • Rising memory prices and supply chain strains, especially regarding the iPhone’s new processors, could impact gross margins.
  • Market eyes price increases for the upcoming iPhone 18.

• Tariffs and Global Relations

  • Apple navigated a $1.4 billion tariff headwind. Improved US-China relations have eased some past pressures.

• Leadership and Succession

  • Dan Ives emphasizes Tim Cook’s pivotal role:

    “Cook's gonna stay CEO in my opinion, till that baton's handed. Because this is so important, I think, to his legacy.” (Dan Ives, 03:53–04:30)

• China: Overhang Easing

  • Improved China relations and sales strength counteract previous concerns.

    “They were kind of in the middle of a sort of old western fight between us and China. Now those tensions have come down.” (Dan Ives, 05:21)

• AI: The Critical Gap

  • Apple’s failure to articulate a compelling AI strategy is flagged as the “hearts and lungs” of future growth.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Apple's missed AI opportunity:

  “They’ve watched AI from the stands. And I think that’s been disappointing…because you have the biggest install base in the world.”
  — Dan Ives, 02:47

• On investor skepticism and market scrutiny:

  “Any blemish, anything investors don’t like, they’re going to take these stocks down. And we saw that with Microsoft.”
  — Dan Ives, 04:38

• On China market rebound:

  “20% iPhone sales—you need that to be a market that's showing growth and that's why you're seeing it. They're delivering everything you want to see.”
  — Dan Ives, 05:21

• On Apple’s AI culture:

  “They’ve really been on a treadmill at 2.5 speed…They were hoping it was going to be internally developed. That wasn’t going to happen. Culturally it’s actually hurt them.”
  — Dan Ives, 06:16

• On Apple’s competitive advantages:

  “When you have the biggest install base…and a hall of fame Mount Rushmore CEO like Cook, you could be late to the game, but 2026 they can fumble the football.”
  — Dan Ives, 06:57

Key Segment Timestamps

• [01:38] – Apple earnings intro
• [01:58] – Ives on the quarter and stock reaction
• [02:41] – Apple’s AI lag and Google Gemini deal
• [03:33] – Gross margins and supply chain issues
• [04:30] – Tariffs and Tim Cook’s leadership
• [05:21] – China sales and market recovery
• [06:09] – AI strategy and internal culture issues

2. Fed Chair Nomination: Kevin Warsh

Key Discussion Points

• Mixed Market Response

  • Broad spectrum of views on Warsh, with some positive (Terry Haines) and some negative (Neil Dutta).
  • Danielle DiMartino Booth expresses cautious hope, citing Warsh’s skepticism toward quantitative easing.

• Nomination and Confirmation Challenges

  • Political hurdles involve DOJ charges against current Chair Powell.

  • “This will not be possible…until the Department of Justice releases Jerome Powell from these criminal charges.”
    — Danielle DiMartino Booth, 12:51

• Interest Rate Policy Outlook

  • Warsh is likely to align with Christopher Waller, focusing on the Fed’s employment mandate and using data to justify lower rates.
  • DiMartino Booth hopes Warsh resists returning to zero interest rate policy, aiming instead for a ~2% floor.

• Challenges to Policy Change

  • The Chair’s influence is limited; dissent is likely if rapid rate cuts are proposed.
  • She emphasizes the need for the data to “speak for itself,” given conflicting labor market signals.

• Mandate Focus and Balance Sheet

  • Warsh may push to narrow the Fed’s focus back to inflation, not labor, and continue to shrink the balance sheet.
  • Achieving this will be an “uphill battle” on a dovish board.

• Powell's Future

  • DiMartino Booth suggests Powell should remain on the board through 2028 to ensure continuity and shared policy skepticism on excessive easing.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Warsh’s stance on QE:

  “He and I sat on a panel…and we share the same views that going as far out on the easing spectrum as QE was not good for the financial markets.”
  — Danielle DiMartino Booth, 11:47

• On the confirmation process:

  “This will not be possible…until the Department of Justice releases Jerome Powell from these criminal charges.”
  — Danielle DiMartino Booth, 12:51

• On the Fed’s reaction function:

  “We need somebody who has a deep understanding of the banking system, the financial system, their linkages…he’ll be able to be a steward at the Fed.”
  — Danielle DiMartino Booth, 14:54

• On the policy mandate:

  “We need to go back to having just the inflation mandate and that the inflation and labor mandates are inherently in conflict with one another.”
  — Danielle DiMartino Booth, 15:47

Key Segment Timestamps

• [11:03] – Discussion on Kevin Warsh’s nomination
• [11:47] – DiMartino Booth’s take on Warsh
• [12:51] – DOJ investigation’s effect on nomination
• [14:01] – Policy alignment and reaction function
• [15:47] – Fed mandate priorities

3. Oil & Gas Earnings: ExxonMobil and Chevron

Main Discussion Points

• Solid Earnings

  • Both Exxon and Chevron beat Q4 expectations. Exxon managed to grow profits, while Chevron's profits declined despite the beat.

• Strategic Positioning

  • Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer (Permian Basin) and Guyana output are central to its profit growth and free cash flow.

  • Exxon’s financial flexibility allows for outsized shareholder returns:

    “Exxon somewhere around $5.5 billion [free cash flow], yet they paid out almost $10 billion in distributions…because of Exxon's financial flexibility.”
    — Vince Piazza, 22:32

  • Chevron lags due to ongoing Hess integration but is set to catch up via Guyana and Permian assets.

• Venezuela Operations

  • Chevron's longstanding presence in Venezuela: output may double, but global impact will be small.

• Industry Consolidation

  • Sector bearish on major production growth, expects more consolidation.

    “This industry needs to consolidate and we will have fewer but much larger players in the upstream business here in the lower 48.”
    — Vince Piazza, 24:41

• Natural Gas Volatility & Opportunity

  • Recent nat gas price swings; bullish outlook on natural gas over oil due to structural tailwinds (LNG, tech data center demand).
  • Larger, better-capitalized operators will continue to acquire assets, increasing market concentration.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On operational differentiation:

  “Exxon has Pioneer and that's Permian…upstream is really the driver for Exxon.”
  — Vince Piazza, 22:32

• On Venezuela’s potential:

  “You could see that doubling in about two years…but 250,000 barrels over the next, call it 24 months, isn’t really that big of a production boost when you think about the global franchise.”
  — Vince Piazza, 23:47

• On nat gas vs. oil outlook:

  “There are structural advantages that natural gas has…not only on the LNG side, but also in the build out for the tech data centers.”
  — Vince Piazza, 26:25

Key Segment Timestamps

• [20:16] – Oil companies’ stock performance and intro
• [20:48] – Exxon and Chevron operational breakdown
• [22:32] – Comparison of strategies, free cash flow
• [23:47] – Venezuela operations
• [24:41] – Long-term growth, consolidation
• [26:25] – Natural gas outlook

Closing Notes

This episode of Bloomberg Intelligence delivers sharp insights into some of the most-watched stories in finance and tech: Apple’s battle for future growth and margin preservation, the high-stakes nomination of a new Fed Chair, and how giants in the oil patch are handling a shifting global energy landscape. With expert analysis and clear attribution, listeners are rewarded with context and actionable intelligence directly from the market’s front lines.