Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode: BI Weekend: Deere, Walmart Earnings, Berkshire Hathaway 13F Filings
Date: February 20, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney

Overview

This episode runs through a series of major news stories and deep-dive analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) analysts. Focus areas include Deere’s earnings and agricultural market outlook, Walmart’s conservative guidance and shifting consumer base, Six Flags’ operational pivot, the real estate sector’s office demand amid AI disruption, American Express’s premium strategy, Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio shift in Warren Buffett’s final quarter as CEO, and MSG Sports’ potential split of the Knicks and Rangers.

Deere: Strong Earnings and Early Signs of Recovery

Guest: Chris Ciolino, BI Senior U.S. Machinery Analyst
[03:04–08:08]

• Beat-and-Raise Quarter:

  • Deere posted strong 1Q results with outperformance in all segments, especially small agriculture (“ag”) and construction.
  • “It was a really solid beat and raised quarter. …really on the back of higher shipment volumes, with particular strength in the small ag business and construction.” – Chris Ciolino [03:08]

• Large Ag Business Outlook:

  • Large ag remains soft but shows stabilizing trends and incremental improvements, notably strengthening order books, aged fleets, and trade flows to China.
  • “Order books strengthened a little bit during the quarter as well.” – Chris Ciolino [03:48]

• Cycle Timing:

  • 2026 projected as trough year; downturn consistent with prior 2–4 year cycles.

• Geographical Perspective:

  • North America and South America are strategic growth areas due to larger farms needing high-margin precision equipment.
  • Europe is steadier, with lower peaks and higher troughs.

• US Market Challenges and Stabilization:

  • Crop prices under pressure; pent-up replacement demand may unleash if prices stabilize.
  • “Things are still challenging, let’s not understate that. …the age of the fleet is as old as it’s been in a number of years.” – Chris Ciolino [06:34]

• Stock Momentum:

  • Deere’s stock at record highs, partly on expectations of cyclic recovery and growth in construction equipment.

Walmart: Resilience, Cautious Outlook, and Strategic Shifts

Guest: Emily Cohn, Bloomberg Consumer Team Leader
[08:14–13:50]

• Solid Quarter, Conservatively Guided:

  • Typical Walmart strategy: offer cautious guidance, then beat later. Economic outlook remains subdued.

• Tariff-Driven Inflation & Consumer Trends:

  • CFO sees tariff-driven inflation peaking, but broader economic worries linger (e.g., “tepid job growth, student loan delinquencies, rising consumer sentiment being uneven” – Emily Cohn [09:13]).
  • “They told us that prices rose 1% in the quarter…same as the last quarter.” – Emily Cohn [09:13]

• Changing Customer Base:

  • Influx of middle and upper income shoppers, driven by strong grocery and e-commerce offerings.
  • “Their superpower right now… wealthier clientele… shopping at Walmart especially for things like their groceries, which they’ve invested in a lot.” – Emily Cohn [09:51]

• Technology and E-Commerce Push:

  • Heavy investment in automation and digital, with most e-commerce fulfillment now automated.
  • AI shopping assistants on app and website driving higher spending.
  • “They said most of their fulfillment in stores is now coming from automated warehouses.” – Emily Cohn [11:51]

• Labor Force & Tech:

  • Large hiring in tech roles as automation ramps up.

Six Flags: Operational Challenges and Industry Comparison

Guest: Jodi Laurie, BI Credit Analyst
[16:23–20:06]

• Earnings and EBITDA:

  • Six Flags and Avis both took impairment charges to boost EBITDA but are still debt-laden.

• Competitive Set:

  • Six Flags compares itself to other “leisure and entertainment”, not just Disney/Universal, citing full-day value.

• Operational Turnaround:

  • Legacy Six Flags assets weaker than expected after Cedar Fair merger; support from capital markets will be crucial.
  • “It comes down to an operational issue. …the legacy Six Flags assets…were in way worse shape than Cedar Fair anticipated.” – Jodi Laurie [18:33]

• Innovation:

  • Introduction of regional and potential “all-park” passes; possible to attract coaster enthusiasts with international expansions.

Office Real Estate & AI: Contradicting Fears

Guest: Jeffrey Langbaum, BI Senior U.S. REIT Analyst
[20:11–24:24]

• Market Fears vs. Reality:

  • AI disruption is feared to reduce office demand, but current leasing in NYC and SF is at post-pandemic highs; strong tenant demand from AI firms.
  • “Leasing velocity has been at the highest level since before the pandemic in markets like New York and San Francisco.” – Jeffrey Langbaum [21:08]

• Hybrid Work and Leasing Momentum:

  • Office REITs’ stocks recently sold off on AI-related fears, but current data indicates expansion, not contraction.

• Sector Pick:

  • Senior housing is most attractive, with clear demographic-driven demand and little new supply.
  • “You cannot refute the demand story at all.” – Jeffrey Langbaum [23:22]

American Express: Premium Strategy and Fees

Guest: Edward Najarian, BI Consumer Finance Analyst
[24:33–28:40]

• Strong Quarter, Focus on Premium Cards:

  • Mid-teens EPS growth guidance for 2026.
  • Acquisition of new Platinum customers offsets lower overall new card acquisitions:
    • “The fee per new card went up from $196…to $282…that’s because a much bigger percentage of those new cards came from new Platinum customers.” – Edward Najarian [25:01]

• Rewards Spend:

  • High reward/service expenses justified by added revenue from premium-customer behavior.

• Card “Ecosystem”:

  • Network effect: many customers have multiple Amex cards (e.g., Platinum for travel, Gold for groceries).

• High-Value Customers:

  • “On average, a Platinum card member spends about 10 times as much on her card as you do.” – Edward Najarian to Paul Sweeney [28:17]

Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffett’s Last CEO Quarter & Portfolio Shifts

Guest: Matt Palazzola, BI Senior Analyst
[32:50–39:00]

• End of an Era:

  • Q4 2025 was Buffett’s last as CEO, though he will remain as chairman.

• Portfolio Moves:

  • Major trims:
    • Amazon stake slashed by 75%.
    • Continued trimming of Apple and Bank of America.
  • Adds:
    • Stakes increased in Chevron (energy/geopolitics thesis) and Chubb (top-tier insurance firm).
    • Notably, “Berkshire could buy Chubb in cash if they wanted to…But I think it’s probably some cultural issues. And would Chubb really want to sell is the other thing.” – Matt Palazzola [37:05]

• Dividends and Future Strategy:

  • Some expect higher capital return (dividends) under new CEO Greg Abel, as Berkshire’s ability to invest excess cash wanes post-Buffett.
  • “They literally can’t…put [their cash] to work in a reasonable way.” – Matt Palazzola [38:16]

• Famous Buffett “Moat” Philosophy:

  • Apple seen as a consumer company with infrastructure moat; tech investments were exceptions.

MSG Sports: Knicks and Rangers Split

Guest: Randall Williams, Bloomberg Business of Sports Reporter
[39:05–43:35]

• Corporate Split:

  • MSG board approved exploring splitting Knicks (NBA) & Rangers (NHL) into separate public companies.
  • “Both the Knicks and the Rangers…would carry a tremendous value, maybe $12 billion combined. And that’s on the low end.” – Randall Williams [39:24]

• Value Unlocked:

  • Individual valuation could facilitate future sales, strategic investments, or shareholder clarity.

• Ownership and Control:

  • Long controlled by James Dolan; change reflects evolving strategy.

• Tax Implications:

  • New 2028 tax law limiting deductions for high salaried employees could pressure team profitability; split simplifies financial management.

• MSG as Real Estate Asset:

  • Arena ownership is prized and central to valuation. “No venue that has a greater history…than Madison Square Garden.” – Randall Williams [42:07]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “It was a really solid beat and raised quarter…for the first time in years, we’re starting to see some green shoots emerge…” – Chris Ciolino, re: Deere [03:08]
• “What they’re seeing is wealthier clients…shopping at Walmart, especially for things like their groceries, which they’ve invested in a lot in the last 10 years…” – Emily Cohn [09:51]
• “Leasing velocity has been at the highest level since before the pandemic in markets like New York and San Francisco.” – Jeffrey Langbaum [21:08]
• “The fee per new card went up from $196…to $282…that’s because a much bigger percentage…came from new Platinum customers…” – Edward Najarian [25:01]
• “Both the Knicks and the Rangers…would carry a tremendous value, maybe $12 billion combined. And that’s on the low end.” – Randall Williams [39:24]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:08] Deere’s “beat and raise” quarter and market outlook
• [09:13] Walmart’s inflation and consumer profile
• [11:51] Walmart automation, e-commerce & AI shopping assistant
• [17:17] Six Flags vs. Disney/Universal; financial reboot
• [21:08] Office leasing post-pandemic, impact of AI (real estate)
• [25:01] Amex’s focus on premium cardholders
• [32:54] Berkshire’s Q4 13F, Buffett’s last CEO quarter, and major trades
• [39:24] MSG Sports: Knicks/Rangers valuation in potential split

Final Thoughts

This episode delivers a jam-packed update on sector-defining earnings (Deere, Walmart) and strategic moves at major corporates (Berkshire, MSG Sports), with expert analysis clarifying how economic and market forces are restructuring business models and strategic priorities across industries.