BI Weekend: Deere, Walmart Earnings, Berkshire Hathaway 13F Filings

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode: BI Weekend: Deere, Walmart Earnings, Berkshire Hathaway 13F Filings
Date: February 20, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney

Overview

This episode runs through a series of major news stories and deep-dive analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) analysts. Focus areas include Deere’s earnings and agricultural market outlook, Walmart’s conservative guidance and shifting consumer base, Six Flags’ operational pivot, the real estate sector’s office demand amid AI disruption, American Express’s premium strategy, Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio shift in Warren Buffett’s final quarter as CEO, and MSG Sports’ potential split of the Knicks and Rangers.

---

Deere: Strong Earnings and Early Signs of Recovery

Guest: Chris Ciolino, BI Senior U.S. Machinery Analyst
[03:04–08:08]

• Beat-and-Raise Quarter:

  • Deere posted strong 1Q results with outperformance in all segments, especially small agriculture (“ag”) and construction.
  • “It was a really solid beat and raised quarter. …really on the back of higher shipment volumes, with particular strength in the small ag business and construction.” – Chris Ciolino [03:08]

• Large Ag Business Outlook:

  • Large ag remains soft but shows stabilizing trends and incremental improvements, notably strengthening order books, aged fleets, and trade flows to China.
  • “Order books strengthened a little bit during the quarter as well.” – Chris Ciolino [03:48]

• Cycle Timing:

  • 2026 projected as trough year; downturn consistent with prior 2–4 year cycles.

• Geographical Perspective:

  • North America and South America are strategic growth areas due to larger farms needing high-margin precision equipment.
  • Europe is steadier, with lower peaks and higher troughs.

• US Market Challenges and Stabilization:

  • Crop prices under pressure; pent-up replacement demand may unleash if prices stabilize.
  • “Things are still challenging, let’s not understate that. …the age of the fleet is as old as it’s been in a number of years.” – Chris Ciolino [06:34]

• Stock Momentum:

  • Deere’s stock at record highs, partly on expectations of cyclic recovery and growth in construction equipment.

---

Walmart: Resilience, Cautious Outlook, and Strategic Shifts

Guest: Emily Cohn, Bloomberg Consumer Team Leader
[08:14–13:50]

• Solid Quarter, Conservatively Guided:

  • Typical Walmart strategy: offer cautious guidance, then beat later. Economic outlook remains subdued.

• Tariff-Driven Inflation & Consumer Trends:

  • CFO sees tariff-driven inflation peaking, but broader economic worries linger (e.g., “tepid job growth, student loan delinquencies, rising consumer sentiment being uneven” – Emily Cohn [09:13]).
  • “They told us that prices rose 1% in the quarter…same as the last quarter.” – Emily Cohn [09:13]

• Changing Customer Base:

  • Influx of middle and upper income shoppers, driven by strong grocery and e-commerce offerings.
  • “Their superpower right now… wealthier clientele… shopping at Walmart especially for things like their groceries, which they’ve invested in a lot.” – Emily Cohn [09:51]

• Technology and E-Commerce Push:

  • Heavy investment in automation and digital, with most e-commerce fulfillment now automated.
  • AI shopping assistants on app and website driving higher spending.
  • “They said most of their fulfillment in stores is now coming from automated warehouses.” – Emily Cohn [11:51]

• Labor Force & Tech:

  • Large hiring in tech roles as automation ramps up.

---

Six Flags: Operational Challenges and Industry Comparison

Guest: Jodi Laurie, BI Credit Analyst
[16:23–20:06]

• Earnings and EBITDA:

  • Six Flags and Avis both took impairment charges to boost EBITDA but are still debt-laden.

• Competitive Set:

  • Six Flags compares itself to other “leisure and entertainment”, not just Disney/Universal, citing full-day value.

• Operational Turnaround:

  • Legacy Six Flags assets weaker than expected after Cedar Fair merger; support from capital markets will be crucial.
  • “It comes down to an operational issue. …the legacy Six Flags assets…were in way worse shape than Cedar Fair anticipated.” – Jodi Laurie [18:33]

• Innovation:

  • Introduction of regional and potential “all-park” passes; possible to attract coaster enthusiasts with international expansions.

---

Office Real Estate & AI: Contradicting Fears

Guest: Jeffrey Langbaum, BI Senior U.S. REIT Analyst
[20:11–24:24]

• Market Fears vs. Reality:

  • AI disruption is feared to reduce office demand, but current leasing in NYC and SF is at post-pandemic highs; strong tenant demand from AI firms.
  • “Leasing velocity has been at the highest level since before the pandemic in markets like New York and San Francisco.” – Jeffrey Langbaum [21:08]

• Hybrid Work and Leasing Momentum:

  • Office REITs’ stocks recently sold off on AI-related fears, but current data indicates expansion, not contraction.

• Sector Pick:

  • Senior housing is most attractive, with clear demographic-driven demand and little new supply.
  • “You cannot refute the demand story at all.” – Jeffrey Langbaum [23:22]

---

American Express: Premium Strategy and Fees

Guest: Edward Najarian, BI Consumer Finance Analyst
[24:33–28:40]

• Strong Quarter, Focus on Premium Cards:

  • Mid-teens EPS growth guidance for 2026.
  • Acquisition of new Platinum customers offsets lower overall new card acquisitions:
    • “The fee per new card went up from $196…to $282…that’s because a much bigger percentage of those new cards came from new Platinum customers.” – Edward Najarian [25:01]

• Rewards Spend:

  • High reward/service expenses justified by added revenue from premium-customer behavior.

• Card “Ecosystem”:

  • Network effect: many customers have multiple Amex cards (e.g., Platinum for travel, Gold for groceries).

• High-Value Customers:

  • “On average, a Platinum card member spends about 10 times as much on her card as you do.” – Edward Najarian to Paul Sweeney [28:17]

---

Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffett’s Last CEO Quarter & Portfolio Shifts

Guest: Matt Palazzola, BI Senior Analyst
[32:50–39:00]

• End of an Era:

  • Q4 2025 was Buffett’s last as CEO, though he will remain as chairman.

• Portfolio Moves:

  • Major trims:
    • Amazon stake slashed by 75%.
    • Continued trimming of Apple and Bank of America.
  • Adds:
    • Stakes increased in Chevron (energy/geopolitics thesis) and Chubb (top-tier insurance firm).
    • Notably, “Berkshire could buy Chubb in cash if they wanted to…But I think it’s probably some cultural issues. And would Chubb really want to sell is the other thing.” – Matt Palazzola [37:05]

• Dividends and Future Strategy:

  • Some expect higher capital return (dividends) under new CEO Greg Abel, as Berkshire’s ability to invest excess cash wanes post-Buffett.
  • “They literally can’t…put [their cash] to work in a reasonable way.” – Matt Palazzola [38:16]

• Famous Buffett “Moat” Philosophy:

  • Apple seen as a consumer company with infrastructure moat; tech investments were exceptions.

---

MSG Sports: Knicks and Rangers Split

Guest: Randall Williams, Bloomberg Business of Sports Reporter
[39:05–43:35]

• Corporate Split:

  • MSG board approved exploring splitting Knicks (NBA) & Rangers (NHL) into separate public companies.
  • “Both the Knicks and the Rangers…would carry a tremendous value, maybe $12 billion combined. And that’s on the low end.” – Randall Williams [39:24]

• Value Unlocked:

  • Individual valuation could facilitate future sales, strategic investments, or shareholder clarity.

• Ownership and Control:

  • Long controlled by James Dolan; change reflects evolving strategy.

• Tax Implications:

  • New 2028 tax law limiting deductions for high salaried employees could pressure team profitability; split simplifies financial management.

• MSG as Real Estate Asset:

  • Arena ownership is prized and central to valuation. “No venue that has a greater history…than Madison Square Garden.” – Randall Williams [42:07]

---

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “It was a really solid beat and raised quarter…for the first time in years, we’re starting to see some green shoots emerge…” – Chris Ciolino, re: Deere [03:08]
• “What they’re seeing is wealthier clients…shopping at Walmart, especially for things like their groceries, which they’ve invested in a lot in the last 10 years…” – Emily Cohn [09:51]
• “Leasing velocity has been at the highest level since before the pandemic in markets like New York and San Francisco.” – Jeffrey Langbaum [21:08]
• “The fee per new card went up from $196…to $282…that’s because a much bigger percentage…came from new Platinum customers…” – Edward Najarian [25:01]
• “Both the Knicks and the Rangers…would carry a tremendous value, maybe $12 billion combined. And that’s on the low end.” – Randall Williams [39:24]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:08] Deere’s “beat and raise” quarter and market outlook
• [09:13] Walmart’s inflation and consumer profile
• [11:51] Walmart automation, e-commerce & AI shopping assistant
• [17:17] Six Flags vs. Disney/Universal; financial reboot
• [21:08] Office leasing post-pandemic, impact of AI (real estate)
• [25:01] Amex’s focus on premium cardholders
• [32:54] Berkshire’s Q4 13F, Buffett’s last CEO quarter, and major trades
• [39:24] MSG Sports: Knicks/Rangers valuation in potential split

---

Final Thoughts

This episode delivers a jam-packed update on sector-defining earnings (Deere, Walmart) and strategic moves at major corporates (Berkshire, MSG Sports), with expert analysis clarifying how economic and market forces are restructuring business models and strategic priorities across industries.

Transcript

[Scarlet Fu]

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[John Tucker]

for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures

[Scarlet Fu]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney

[Paul Sweeney]

Concerned about rising prices spooking investors.

[Scarlet Fu]

What does renewables investment look like in

[Paul Sweeney]

the US More tariff talk coming out of this administration.

[Scarlet Fu]

Breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe. The President wants lower interest rates. He wants a rate cut cycle.

[Paul Sweeney]

How do you broaden out the AI play?

[Scarlet Fu]

Are people just looking for something to worry about when it comes to China? Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio Originals and the

[Paul Sweeney]

Bloomberg Business App on today's Bloomberg Intelligence show, we dig inside the big business stories impacting Wall street and the global markets.

[Scarlet Fu]

Each and every week. We provide in depth research and data on some of the 2000 companies and 130 industries our analysts cover worldwide.

[Paul Sweeney]

Today we'll look at why AI is emerging as a catalyst for office space demand despite fears of job cuts.

[Scarlet Fu]

Plus, we'll discuss what recent 13 filings revealed about Warren Buffett's last quarter as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

[Paul Sweeney]

But first, we begin with news from the farm machinery leader Deere.

[Scarlet Fu]

This week, Deere boosted its annual profit outlook as the company, which is the world's biggest farm machinery maker, anticipates the agriculture economy will soon get better.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more, we were joined by Chris Ciolino, Bloomberg Intelligence senior U.S. machinery analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We began by asking Chris for his take on the latest at Deere.

[Chris Ciolino]

It was a really solid beat and raised quarter. And I think this kind of gives us the all clear on the cycle and that, you know, 26 will be the trough earnings year. The 1Q beat was broad based, all segments, better top line, better margins than expected, really on the back of higher shipment volumes, with particular strength in the small ag business and construction. Those are markets that have started to already recover. Now this year, the large ag business, which is obviously their bigger growth engine, continues to be soft, but I think we're seeing that business stabilize and really for the first time in years, we're starting to see some green shoots emerge there. Order books strengthened a little bit during the quarter as well.

[Scarlet Fu]

How does this compare and contrast with what CNH Industrial reported earlier this week, which took a more. It feels like a cautious stance.

[Chris Ciolino]

Yeah, you know, I think so. Both Companies are calling 26 as the bottom. I think that's pretty well understood at this point. I think the incremental piece coming out of Deere is that you're starting to see some early signs of improvement in the North American large ag business. That's a market they're projecting in terms of unit volumes to be down 15 to 20% this year. That's going to put volumes at the lowest level in more than four decades. But what you're starting to hear from them this quarter is that the order books strengthened, particularly just in the last month of the quarter. You're starting to see a little bit more trade flows going to China. The fleets continue to age, you have the government aid support. So this is not a big step change, but it's really the first signs of incremental improvement.

[Paul Sweeney]

You got to have a great sense of timing, Chris. As I said, deere is up 42% year to date. So the market's anticipating this business bottoming and then turning up. How long is this cycle for some of These companies that you follow here that are cyclical.

[Chris Ciolino]

Yeah. So a typical downturn in this business will last anywhere from two to four years. This will be the third year of the downturn. So in terms of the downturn, it looks very similar to what we've seen historically. Typically the upturns last a little bit longer. But this is an incredibly volatile market and it's ultimately dictated by crop prices and farmer profitability. So the crop outlooks do have a significant impact here in terms of what farmers are willing and able to spend.

[Scarlet Fu]

And it looks like Deere relies on the US for a huge part of its revenue, if not half. What is it doing in terms of growing its, its business overseas? Is it just kind of a trajectory of growth there that is similar to what it sees in the US or is it competing against some established players?

[Chris Ciolino]

Yeah, so they're regional markets, but in terms of what markets matter for deer, it's North America and South America is becoming more important. Reason being those are typically the bigger producers of row crops, corn, soybeans. They're larger farms, they utilize more of the larger equipment that is more conducive to some of the precision technologies which come in at a higher margin. Europe tends to be a little bit more stable. They get a lot of government support. So think of that market as less cyclical, you know, lower peaks, higher troughs. Those are really kind of the three big growth engines if you think about Deere's geographic exposure.

[Paul Sweeney]

So what is Deere saying about the US farmer these days?

[Chris Ciolino]

Listen, things are still challenging, let's not understate that. You know, crop prices really haven't moved that much and still under tremendous pressure. As we look at another year of, you know, near record production, they are seeing some signs of stability, I would say. And like I mentioned earlier, I think we're starting to see some early signs of improved order activity again, albeit off a very low base. And a lot of that's predicated on, you know, we're starting to see a little bit more exports go into China. You have continued government support. And then also, you know, there's certainly a need for replacement. The age of the fleet is as old as it's been in a number of years. So as farmers get more money, you start to see some stability on the crop price front. That should unlock some pent up demand.

[Scarlet Fu]

Yeah, I'm just looking at the stock price trading at a record high, but it really has gone on a tear over the past three weeks or two weeks. What accounts for that? It was it anticipation of this report or was it something else?

[Chris Ciolino]

A combination of things. You know, I think, you know, it's pretty well understood now that this year will be the trough of the cycle. So I think there's some positioning ahead of that. And you know, a lot of these heavy machinery companies typically do well early in the rate cut environment. So the anticipation of lower rates, stronger growth environment, not only in the ag business but also construction, I think that sometimes gets overlooked. They're completely refreshing their excavator product lineup. They have a pretty strong position in construction equipment. And I think the growth dynamics there moving it for 26 and 27 are still quite favorable.

[Paul Sweeney]

Our thanks to Chris Giolino, Bloomberg Intelligence senior U.S. machinery analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We move next to the retail giant Walmart.

[Paul Sweeney]

This week Walmart issued a forecast for full year earnings that missed higher expectations, flagging the unpredictable state of trade and labor market conditions.

[Scarlet Fu]

So we brought in Emily Cohn, Bloomberg's consumer team leader.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked Emily for her take on Wal Mart's most recent results.

[Emily Cohn]

Is another solid quarter for Walmart in the fourth quarter. They did come out with conservative guidance, which is pretty typical for Walmart, come out with cautious guidance and then exceed it later in the year, which is sort of their playbook. And then their guidance was also paired with some warning signs or cautious outlook about the economy, which I found interesting.

[Scarlet Fu]

Yeah, I want to pick up on that idea because the CFO talked to Bloomberg and mentioned that tariff driven inflation has reached or is reaching its peak, which I thought was really interesting given that there's so many people expecting rate cuts later on this year given that inflation seems to have settled down. What more can they tell us about pricing?

[Emily Cohn]

I think they told us that prices rose 1% in the quarter, which I think was the same as the last quarter. But they also mentioned other things like tepid job growth, student loan delinquencies, rising consumer sentiment being uneven. Things that you know would give any CEO or CFO or company pause when they're trying to outlay what might happen in the coming year.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I've noticed over the last couple of years they've talked about how maybe their customer base is changing a little bit. People, some middle class, maybe even upper income areas coming down to Walmart, they're seeing more and more of that. Is that still the case?

[Emily Cohn]

I think yes, that's definitely the case. And that's sort of their superpower right now that, you know, poor, this is the case shaped economy that we talk about a lot. Poor customers are pulling back in areas. But what they're seeing is wealthier clients, clientele who might not have come to Walmart in the past. Shopping at Walmart, especially for things like their groceries, which they've invested in a lot in the last 10 years, you can now find organic groceries and that's really paying off.

[Scarlet Fu]

And they also have this Walmart plus program which they're really putting a lot of emphasis on. It's actually one of the benefits if you're an American Express Platinum cardholder, which speaks to that idea that they're really reaching for the higher income consumer. How's that going and is it making any headway on stealing market share from Amazon with its prime program?

[Emily Cohn]

Yeah, they're seeing a huge growth in E Commerce. I think that was one of the major areas that grew this quarter that is drawing in higher income shoppers who actually pay even more than the membership for faster deliveries, speedier pickup times and that's helping them also grow market share among wealthier shoppers who are looking for convenience over everything else.

[Paul Sweeney]

What are they saying about, did they even talk about on the conference call tariffs anymore? Is that still a discussion point? And what's the company saying about tariffs?

[Emily Cohn]

Yeah, tariffs came up a little bit, but they, they said that they, you know, expect that that tariff driven inflation to peak.

[Scarlet Fu]

Now.

[Emily Cohn]

I think they also benefit here again from their groceries. Groceries are a portion of their assortment that is less impacted by tariffs and they're really benefiting From, I think 60% of their sales come from groceries these days.

[Scarlet Fu]

You mentioned E Commerce. It sounds like Walmart will continue to invest in technology and automation. What were some of the things that they flagged that they're working on in terms of innovation and building on the technology that they have already implemented into their system?

[Emily Cohn]

Yeah, it was, it was interesting. They said most of their fulfillment in stores is now coming from automated warehouses. Most of their fulfillment for E commerce is coming from automated warehouses. They have really made huge gains here to speed up fulfillment centers and I think we should expect to see more of that in the coming quarters. They cited store remodels and automation as the main areas where they're going to be continuing to invest.

[Paul Sweeney]

You know, one of the things that's amazed me really for 10, 15 years about Walmart is how well their digital business has been, their E Commerce business. They have built that to not only, I mean they can go toe to toe with Amazon.com on just about anything it seems like. Is that still a growth story for them?

[Emily Cohn]

Yeah, I think they said something like a third. They've They've seen a huge amount of shoppers are now actually interacting with their AI.

[Jeffrey Langbaum]

Oh boy.

[Emily Cohn]

Their AI assistant on their app and on their website. That really helping people make shopping decisions faster. They're seeing an increasing spend from customers who interact with the AI shopping assistant, they said, which I think we can expect to see more.

[Paul Sweeney]

Just in the last five years their EBITDA has roughly doubled, but their capex has tripled.

[Scarlet Fu]

Yeah, so there's that E commerce build out, that tech build out.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yep. So I mean they're putting their money where their mouth is here.

[Scarlet Fu]

You know what Paul's dream job is, Emily? Must he mention this to you?

[Paul Sweeney]

Be a greeter at Walmart. See, I'm a nice friendly guy.

[Scarlet Fu]

This smock, he wants to wear this mark. But you know, to that point, Walmart employs about 2.1 million people, which is makes it a huge employer. Do we have a sense of whether they've been growing their employee base at all with this commitment to technology, to automation?

[Emily Cohn]

I think they've definitely made a huge investment in technology. They have a lot more people working on tech than they ever have and I think we could expect to see more of that for sure.

[Scarlet Fu]

That was Emily Cohn, Bloomberg Consumer team leader.

[Paul Sweeney]

You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio providing in depth research and data on 2000 companies and 130 industries.

[Scarlet Fu]

You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via bigo on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Paul Sweeney and this is Bloomberg.

[Scarlet Fu]

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[Chris Ciolino]

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[Scarlet Fu]

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[Chris Ciolino]

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[Chris Ciolino]

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[John Tucker]

learn more at pennymac.com pennymac loan services llc. Equal Housing Lender NMLS ID 35953 licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act. Conditions and restrictions may apply. Support for the show comes from public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stock options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com etc. Podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures this

[Jodi Laurie]

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[Scarlet Fu]

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[Scarlet Fu]

This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloom Bloomberg Radio

[Paul Sweeney]

next to news from amusement resort operator Six Flags Entertainment.

[Scarlet Fu]

This week Six Flags reported 2025 earnings and revenue that were slightly ahead of analysts estimates. For more on this and the latest in the travel and leisure space, we're joined by Jodi Laurie, Bloomberg Intelligence Credit Analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked Jodi for her take on Six Flags earnings.

[Jodi Laurie]

So I think what's interesting, Paul, is that we're seeing that some of what Six Flags said, oddly was similar to what we saw on Avis's call. And both companies had these large impairment charges to boost ebitda, but it didn't necessarily equate to cash generation. And both companies are focused on improving their debt load and also just the core of the business, the operational side, adding in AI to boost the business and figuring out ways to turn around. And both companies are dealing with new CEOs, so it's just like a weird sort of compare contrast scenario that I've been toying with my head.

[Scarlet Fu]

I mean, Paul was talking about how Hershey park was his first amusement park and then obviously the big one would be Disney.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yep.

[Scarlet Fu]

Or Universal. Have you been there?

[Paul Sweeney]

No.

[Scarlet Fu]

Okay, that's a pretty good one. Yeah. For is that, is that the competition for Six Flags or does it work on a different level than those?

[John Tucker]

It.

[Jodi Laurie]

It is and it isn't the competition, Scarlett. I mean, I think, you know, Six Flags likes to compare itself more to alternatives in leisure and entertainment. There was a great slide that they provided that showcased the value proposition. If you compare it to like concert tickets or insert sporting event, the amount of time that you spend at Six Flags in theory is all day, right? So the cost to enter and the cost for the, you know, the sort of concessions is much lower than what you would pay to go to like a Taylor Swift concert. Now that said, I mean, I think what's so interesting is, is when the company combines, there was this image that they could create like an all pass promotion, right. That you can enter in all parks. They've only finally started rolling out something that's a regional pass recently. And I'm curious to see what could happen with the company as they improve those sort of points of it. Because what's funny is if you look at it from a revenue perspective, it did actually pretty well this year compared to 24. And 24 was a pretty strong year. Same thing with some of the per cap spending pieces of it, right? The per cap component, the admissions were down, but the in park spending was decent. And so you say, what, what's going on? Like, why are they having such issues? And it comes down to an operational issue. It comes down to the fact that the legacy Six Flags assets, I think, were in way worse shape than Cedar Fair anticipated when they took on the company and they're saddled with a lot of debt. So it's really a question of if the capital markets are going to be encouraging enough to help them through. You know, they helped them through in January with a new issue, but really are they able to sort of support the company through this transition.

[Scarlet Fu]

That park pass you mentioned sounds like an, you know, the amusement park version of an epic pass, which makes sense if you're a skier and you go are chasing the weather around the country. But does it make sense to go to, you know, the west coast for Six Flags and then come back? I don't know.

[Jodi Laurie]

It could. Scarlett, you. You don't talk to Ira Jersey enough, apparently, at least when it comes to roller coasters. You probably talk to him about interest rates. Next time when you have him on, ask him about his son's American coasters enthusiast card that he proudly carries. If you are deep into the roller coaster dynamics and culture, people will go to the end of the earth. And I am curious to see how the Middle east traction for Six Flags, for SeaWorld, and for some of the other parks that expanded there, how that's going to play out. If you do see these park coaster enthusiasts fly out to Saudi Arabia, fly out to the UAE to ride certain coasters.

[Scarlet Fu]

Our thanks to Jodi Laurie, Bloomberg Intelligence Credit Analyst. We move next to the real estate sector.

[Paul Sweeney]

Bloomberg Intelligence recently put out research entitled AI Drives Office Demand amid Job cut fears.

[Scarlet Fu]

And according to bi, AI is emerging as a catalyst for office demand, reinforcing leasing momentum in New York City and San Francisco.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more on this, we're joined by Jeffrey Langbaum, Bloomberg Intelligence senior U.S. rEIT analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We started our conversation by asking Jeffrey to discuss what people are saying to him with regards to AI and office space.

[Jeffrey Langbaum]

Right now. What people are thinking about is what the impact is going to be on office space if AI makes all of these industries that lease office space irrelevant. Okay, what does that mean for demand for space? And, you know, we, we saw last week, you know, that started with software and then it went to, you know, industry after industry and ended up with the real estate brokers and eventually the office REITs getting hit hard.

[Scarlet Fu]

So so far, this is just kind of fear that's wafting across the market. Have we actually seen any evidence of this happening?

[Jeffrey Langbaum]

Not yet. And in fact, we've seen some of the opposite. Leasing velocity has been at the highest level since before the pandemic in markets like New York and San Francisco. The REITs that we follow, names like SL Green, Vornado, Boston Properties, are now BXP. These guys are reporting very strong leasing volumes. We're starting to see occupancies tick up off the bottom in their portfolios. And, you know, one of the, one of the dynamics at play is that AI firms are leasing space as they grow. And to the extent that companies being, you know, impacted by AI start to recede a little bit, there's an offset there.

[Paul Sweeney]

So your office REIT stocks last week sold off on this fear?

[Jeffrey Langbaum]

Yeah, and it's not a new fear. I mean, it's been, it's been at play for some time now. You know, work from home kind of worked its way through and everyone kind of got comfortable with where hybrid kind of settled in. And then, you know, what was the next thing to hit office? And it was this. And it's been, you know, it's been out there for probably a couple of quarters now. What is the impact going to be? But last week when software rolled over, it's just compounded is this Something where,

[Scarlet Fu]

because of the evidence that companies are still leasing quite a bit of space, that we're going to see a just as sharp recovery.

[Jeffrey Langbaum]

Well, that's possible, but, you know, there's also the risk that the equity markets are turbulent and forecasting. Right. And so there is the possibility that there will be negative leasing news to come. It's certainly not showing up in the numbers now. And we do think, and this is backed up by some survey work that we just did last week of, of office workers in both New York and San Francisco. We actually think that there's still a period of time to come where firms are actually leasing more space. They're expanding their headcount to try and figure out how to take advantage of AI and to grow their business. And that could actually, you know, I don't know about a sharp snapback, but it could prolong the positive vibes for, for some time.

[Paul Sweeney]

What's the sector of the REIT market that you like the most right now?

[Jeffrey Langbaum]

Senior housing is, is. I mean, you know, it's, it's the, it's, it's the, the one aspect where you cannot refute the demand story at all. And at the same time where real estate guys typically love to build what to take advantage of those demand stories, there's not much senior housing coming out of the ground. So, so there's a huge supply demand imbalance.

[Scarlet Fu]

Okay, but is senior housing more attractive in certain markets over other markets? How do you pick between winners and losers when it comes to senior housing?

[Jeffrey Langbaum]

It's really more about the local operator than it is about the specific market. I mean, obviously, if you're in a place where, you know, the economics aren't as strong and you don't have as affluent a potential resident base, then that's going to, you know, potentially impact. But local, strong, local operators when there's not a lot of supply coming out of the ground and, you know, you basically just have an aging American population that is going to need housing solutions. It's really a play across the board.

[Paul Sweeney]

Our thanks to Jeff Langbaum, Bloomberg Intelligence senior U.S. rEIT analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We move now to some research that Bloomberg Intelligence recently published on American Express.

[Paul Sweeney]

According to Bi American Express's focus on attracting new premium cardholders should help it meet its consensus. EPS growth in 2026 and 2027.

[Scarlet Fu]

So we brought in Edward Najarian, Bloomberg Intelligence consumer finance analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked Ed about amex's most recent quarter and what we've learned since the company rolled out its increased fee for the platinum card.

[Edward Najarian]

When they reported the quarter, great quarter, everything, everything kind of in line with expectations or in some areas better and gave great guidance in terms of mid teens EPS growth for 2026 and you know, a lot of conversation about the refresh and how great the refresh is going and acquiring, you know, lots of new customers. But generally there were two things that sort of analysts picked on in the quarter when you're, when you're trading at sort of a high multiple for financial. And those two things were, number one, that the new card acquisition rate kind of went down a little bit relative to last year and relative to the third quarter. And additionally all the money that they're spending on rewards and services and all of what they call variable customer engagement expenses went up a lot. A little too much in some people's opinions. So what we kind of learned recently was sort of some supporting data around two things. And the big thing was while the number of new cards acquired went down a little bit, the fee per new card went up from 196 in the third quarter to 282. What now? So huge jump now. Why is that? That's because a lot of the much bigger percentage of those new cards came from new Platinum customers, which is much better than just a regular customer. So even though a little less customers acquired, you're getting many more new Platinum customers. Much better economics. So that's sort of one thing. And then talked a lot about how they're absorbing all of those extra reward costs, if you will. But still that's, and that's fine because it's enhancing revenue growth and sort of the revenue growth benefit of that offsets the reward cost more than offsets that reward cost.

[Scarlet Fu]

Okay, Edward, One thing that I've noticed from these Facebook groups is that people get a Platinum card that's you know, for the sign up bonus and everything else. But then they start branching out and they get the Gold card because there's more reward points for groceries there. They start to compile a lot of amex cards. So a lot of the users have multiple cards, don't they?

[Edward Najarian]

Yeah, no question about that. And obviously you've got, you know, a lot of sort of families on the Platinum card. So there's sort of a primary Platinum card owner and then issuer of multiple cards related to that. So you sort of have this, this sort of network effect of the Platinum card that just keeps building and to some extent, you know, if you can, you know, when you come back to the JP Morgan Sapphire card, if you can, you know, build that reward and service infrastructure even bigger and better. You know, you create that, you know, sort of the mode effect which is what they're trying to do and seems to be working.

[Paul Sweeney]

Hey, Ed, the I have the green card I got the day I graduated college. I kept it all. But Scarlet and other folks, I understand they go crazy for these really expensive cards and all the points and managing

[Edward Najarian]

that you need to go platinum. Paul.

[Paul Sweeney]

No, I just can't, I can't do it. But how, how big of a business is that for these card companies? Is that really the value driver, the Scarlet Foos of the world?

[Edward Najarian]

That's it, yeah. They care much more about Scarlett than they care about you. I have to say.

[Scarlet Fu]

Yes, you need to upgrade.

[Edward Najarian]

She's got, she's, she's about to pay $895 year up from $695 a year. They're going to give her a heck of a lot of rewards and services for that, but a big sign up on average. Now I hope this is not completely true, but on average, she, one of the platinum card members, spends about 10 times as much on her card as you do.

[Scarlet Fu]

That was Edward Najarian, Bloomberg Intelligence consumer finance analyst. Coming up, we'll look at why MSG Sports is considering splitting up its Knicks and Rangers businesses.

[Paul Sweeney]

You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio providing in depth research and data on 2000 companies and 130 industries.

[Scarlet Fu]

You can access Bloomberg Intelligence through bigo on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Paul Sweeney and this is Bloomberg.

[Scarlet Fu]

Hey, this is U.S. olympic gold medalist Tara Davis Woodhull.

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And I'm U.S. paralympic gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.

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[Randall Williams]

propose a toast to our good friend Dave. You inspired this epic guy's weekend. I'm sorry you're missing it. Everyone knows that when you fly you

[John Tucker]

need to bring a real ID or a passport. Everyone but Dave.

[Randall Williams]

So here's to finally figuring out how to get on an airplane. Dave, we'll see you tomorrow. And I'm glad you can rebook your flight.

[Jeffrey Langbaum]

He would have loved this restaurant.

[John Tucker]

Does your ID fly? Find out if you have an acceptable form of [e-mail] realid

[Paul Sweeney]

everyone needs to take care of their mental health, even

[Randall Williams]

running back Bijon Robinson. When I'm on the field, I'm feeling the pressure. I usually just take a deep breath. When I'm just breathing and seeing what's in front of me, everything just slows down.

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It just makes me feel great before I run the play.

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Just like Bijan, we all need a strong mental game on and off the field. Make a game plan for your mental [e-mail] Love, you're mine brought to you

[Paul Sweeney]

by the Huntsman Mental Health foundation, the Arthur M. Blank Blank Family foundation, and the AG Council.

[John Tucker]

For the Bloomberg Small Business Report, I'm John Tucker. There's a historic mansion on the northeast corner of San Francisco's Alamo Square park,

[Paul Sweeney]

where several dozen people live, spending their

[John Tucker]

days immersed in aesthetic concentration. Welcome to HFO, or Hacker Fellowship 0. The goal is to attract the best entrepreneurs. The Live In Startup accelerator promises to strip away all of life's tedium so that founders can have the most productive 12 weeks of their life and birth their real life's work. The program comps living expenses and hands over cash in exchange for equity in each startup operating from its house.

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The residency, which started in 2020 and

[John Tucker]

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[Jeffrey Langbaum]

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[Jeffrey Langbaum]

Among those who've attended are a dozen

[John Tucker]

founders who previously built companies with billion dollar valuations. HFO takes a 5% equity in each participating startup. And that's the Bloomberg Small Business Report.

[Scarlet Fu]

This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move next to some news at the multinational conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway.

[Scarlet Fu]

This week the company released its 13 filing for the fourth quarter. And investor Warren Buffett's last quarter as Berkshire Hathaway CEO reflected a bearish sentiment.

[Paul Sweeney]

Berkshire slashed its holding of Amazon by more than 75% in the fourth quarter while also building a stake in the New York Times.

[Scarlet Fu]

Berkshire also continued trimming bank of America and Apple during the quarter while increasing its stakes in Chevron and Chubb.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more on all of this, we were joined by Matt Palazzola, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We began by asking Matthew if this will be the last time we mentioned Warren Buffett buying or selling shares in companies.

[Matt Palazzola]

Yes, it is. So he was the CEO as of the fourth quarter. So these moves that we're looking at in the 13F took place in the fourth quarter of year. To be totally fair, he's been stepping back. He probably wasn't behind a lot of this anyway. But this is actually the last quarter that you could even attribute these things to him. He remains chairman, so you never know, he'd be looming behind the scenes. But his last quarter as CEO, he

[Scarlet Fu]

famously said he was only investing in things that he understood in that typically did not include technology companies. But Apple, I guess he saw more as a consumer company than anything else.

[Matt Palazzola]

Yeah, I think so. And I think the, you know, his thing was moats. Right. And it probably still is. But the iPhone moat and the infrastructure built in, I think those were appealing things. They have been paring that, that investment, as we know, part of that. And you know, it's, it's kind of a twist because he had said this at the annual meeting a couple of meetings ago that it was kind of tax reasons that they had these huge unrealized gains in there and he thought taxes would be going up. Now. They're certainly not going to go up under the current administration kind of anytime soon. But Buffett is always long term thinking. So I think, think that's what he was looking at is we've got, you know, tens of billions of dollars of unrealized gains that will be taxed. And I think it does still hold true that in 10 years from now, probably the corporate Tax rate could be higher. And that was his concern and part of the reason they were taking down those, those big gains and those big positions.

[Paul Sweeney]

The conglomerate also cut its Amazon stake by 75%.

[Matt Palazzola]

They did so Amazon, they initially got into Amazon in 2019. That was one of his investment deputies, I think brought it to him. Then again, also like tech, but a retailer, right. That position we calculated was up about 130 to 140% over the time. They hold it nice, but kind of in line with the S&P 500. So it didn't really outperform. So I think it was kind of taking some money off the table. I sold I believe like 1.7 billion worth of that stock cutting, cutting most of the. Of the position. So that one, I think was probably company specific. Didn't really outperform. They bought 4 billion of Alphabet last quarter. So, you know, the kind of tech version, you know, may be changing over time.

[Scarlet Fu]

What did he increase stakes in?

[Matt Palazzola]

So two. Two big ones, Chevron and Chubb. So Chevron is their fifth biggest holding. I think they, interestingly, I don't know if they were kind of betting on US intervention in Venezuela, which happened kind of after the quarter. So you can't say that like Maduro got taken out and this stuff happened and they did it in reaction. Did it before. But maybe they were reading the tea leaves there. I don't know. It's a big holding for them. I think the, the kind of geopolitical energy play makes total sense. The other one is Chubb, which, you know, I don't want to get too excited thinking about insurance mega deal here, but they are now the second. Well, they've been the second largest holder of Chubb stock. Chubb makes total sense. It is in our view, it'd be I. Cream of the crop insurance company, global reach still growing nicely. Great management. It's a company that Berkshire would want to own now. Berkshire's got their own massive insurance business. The interesting thing is you've got two massive insurance businesses. They're actually quite complementary if one were to want to put them together. So the, the Berkshire business, very big personal auto and Geico, very big reinsurance, kind of global. Global reinsurance. Those are two businesses that Chubb is not really in. There's some overlap in the kind of US specialty businesses that they're both in, but it would be phenomenally complementary of those two businesses. I think there's probably a lot of hurdles to some sort of total deal there. Chubb's market cap is 130 billion. Berkshire has 300 billion of cash, so they theoretically could buy Chubb in cash if they wanted to. But I think it's probably some cultural issues. And would Chubb really want to sell is the other thing. But, you know, it is something as a stock, something Berkshire would want to.

[Scarlet Fu]

Is that a strategy that Berkshire actually follows through on where it starts off with a stake and then eventually decides, you know what, we're just going to buy the whole thing?

[Matt Palazzola]

Scarlett? Yeah, they do do that. So I think with Burlington Northern, which is a little bit more when they bought it, they did things like that where they acquire the public stake and then they build it over time. That's why there was a lot of speculation about Occidental. Buffett then came out and threw cold water on it saying that, but it seemed like it was going along with their playbook of huge acquisitions that they made before.

[Paul Sweeney]

So now that Warren's out, can we have a serious discussion about a dividend?

[Matt Palazzola]

We can. I think, you know, we'll get you on the phone with Greg Abel and see what he says. You're done.

[Paul Sweeney]

Right.

[Matt Palazzola]

But, you know, I think our take has been in the early years,

[Paul Sweeney]

Abel

[Matt Palazzola]

will probably adhere to the ethos of Berkshire, and I don't think he's going to come in and start breaking down walls. I don't think anyone would like to see that, especially Buffett's still there and they have tremendous excess capital. Buffett has praised Abel as being a great capital allocator, great capital manager. And they've also said we literally can't. There's so much money, we can't put it to work in a reasonable way. So it would make sense to see something happen there. And I think, look, the other thesis is they're not going to be as good at anything anymore. Right? There's no better investor than Buffett. Vijit Jane, who is the head of the insurance operations, he's been selling a lot of stock. Perhaps he's getting close to retirement, so not going to be good at any of these things anymore. Some sort of capital return will be a big catalyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

Our thanks to Matt Palazzola, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We move next to some news in the business of sports.

[Paul Sweeney]

This week we heard that Madison Square Gardens board of directors approved a plan to Explore splitting the NBA's New York Knicks from the NHL's New York Rangers.

[Scarlet Fu]

It's a move that would make each team a separate publicly traded company.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more on this, we're joined by Randall Williams, Bloomberg Business of Sports Reporter. We first asked Randall to break down why this deal may happen.

[Randall Williams]

Yeah, you look at the enterprise value of the Knicks and Rangers and what they're traded at at $7 billion. But you look at what the Lakers sold for alone, $10 billion. And I think the Knicks obviously are in a larger market than New York. The Lakers have won more titles, but New York is New York. And so both the Knicks and the Rangers, I think, would carry a tremendous value, maybe $12 billion combined. And that's on the low end.

[Paul Sweeney]

So is this maybe a first step for selling one of the teams, selling a piece of one of the teams

[Randall Williams]

into speculative territory with James Dolan, that's

[Paul Sweeney]

always a fun place to play.

[Randall Williams]

Look, I mean, Silver Lake owns a piece of MSG Sports, and so that's 5% or it's a 10% stake, but probably 5% each. And when you think about someone wanting to buy into that, you would want to know how much each individually is worth. If not, you're buying into something and it's like you could be buying in at a supreme price or maybe something that's a little bit lower. And I think buyers who are interested, and there have been several over the years, want a. Want a, a more precise price, and so do the shareholders of MSG Sports.

[Scarlet Fu]

So what's held up the company from being split up up until now? Because there's been a lot of calls for the enterprise value trading at a discount to the. The actual value of each franchise has been there for a while.

[Paul Sweeney]

I know the answer.

[Randall Williams]

No.

[Paul Sweeney]

Tell us for voting stock is from the Dolan control.

[Randall Williams]

Yeah, I think, I think that James Dolan has long been the controlling person for all of these companies. He decides for better, for worse. Yes, exactly. He decides, you know, what he wants to do. And there is a board of directors that voted on this. But this would have never been up for. Been up for a vote had James Dolan not said, you know what, we should, maybe we should consider this. And then from there on, you know, things happen and they vote on this.

[Paul Sweeney]

Madison Square Garden and James Dawn. Do they own the Garden itself? The building?

[Randall Williams]

Believe so, yeah.

[Paul Sweeney]

Because that's always a big. That's always a big part of it, too. Do you own the arena that you plan or do you.

[Scarlet Fu]

Yes, I had a different publicly traded company.

[Randall Williams]

Exactly.

[Scarlet Fu]

That's the thing.

[Randall Williams]

Exactly. And I had a Bloomberg terminal reader and the original copy that I wrote, I said Madison Square Garden was one of the most famous arenas in the world. And someone quickly, someone quickly replied and said, no, it is, is the most famous arena in the world. So Madison Square Garden is a huge, you know, attraction when you think about arenas in New York. There's the Barclays center, of course, which is newer. But the legacy of New York is often rooted in MSG and the events that it's held over many, many years.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yeah, I mean, yeah, first of all. And they also put in, I think, close to a billion dollars in renovations several years ago. So they really upgraded the Garden. And what's one of the many great things about going to the Garden is they have the, the photos on the wall, the concourses.

[Randall Williams]

Absolutely.

[Paul Sweeney]

All the great events, whether it's a concert, a game, whatever. And there's thousands of them.

[Randall Williams]

There's no, there's no venue that has a greater history, I would argue, than Madison Square Garden that is still, you know, open and operational. And that's a, that's part of this. I mean, you think about the Knicks playoff run last year, you think about the Rangers and what they've done

[Paul Sweeney]

not

[Randall Williams]

the past two seasons, but in the seasons before that. All of these things. When they eventually win, you know, God willing, it is an Ms. It isn't one of the deals where, you know, they're in a way game and then they have to come back. If it happens in msg, that will probably be the biggest moment in that arena in the last 25 years. And so whoever wants to buy into that potentially is going to want a good value at it.

[Scarlet Fu]

There was also a note from LightShed that pointed out that there's a new tax law that goes into effect for the 2028 fiscal year that for public companies, limits deductions to $1 million per covered employees. For sports teams, it's easy to find a lot of employees that make at least $1 million a year. So once this goes through in 2028, that's going to put the company in a negative free cash flow situation. Unless the Knicks, for instance, go deep into a playoff run or the Rangers go deep into a playoff run. So it also allows the company, you know, for tax reasons, to be in a better position.

[Randall Williams]

Absolutely. Absolutely. I mean, there's not a lot of publicly traded sports companies out there for this reason in particular. And you think about all of the big ones. You think about the Cronky Sports and Entertainment, which houses the Rams, the Nuggets, I believe, another soccer team, and so many more. It's private. And that's, that's for a reason. But this one is unique in Madison Square Garden is Madison Square Garden and Knicks. The Knicks and the Rangers the Rangers.

[Scarlet Fu]

Our thanks to Randall Williams, Bloomberg Business of Sports Reporter.

[Paul Sweeney]

That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on 2,000 companies and 130 industries.

[Scarlet Fu]

And remember, you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via BI Go on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up. Right now,

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