Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode: BI Weekend: Disney Earnings, Metsera Bidding War, Visa-Mastercard Deal
Hosts: Scarlet Fu & Paul Sweeney
Date: November 14, 2025

Overview

This episode dives into recent market-defining headlines with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, offering in-depth research and expert takes on:

• Disney’s latest earnings and the challenges shaping its future
• The Metsera bidding war between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk and broader implications for obesity drug markets
• Visa and MasterCard’s long-awaited litigation settlement with retailers
• Updates from the retail sector, Circle Internet Group’s earnings, Tyson Foods outlook, and Warren Buffett’s “going quiet” announcement at Berkshire Hathaway

1. Disney’s Earnings & Strategy

Guest: Geetha Ranganathan, Senior Media Analyst
Key Segment: [03:02 – 07:56]

Discussion Highlights

• Earnings Recap:

  • Q4 sales were “lackluster,” with parks division posting a 13% jump in profit — continues to generate about 60% of company profits.
  • Big-budget movie expenses (notably a new Avatar film) will weigh on the next quarter.

• Core Challenge:

  • Disney faces a “very, very tough balancing act” managing profits from parks, a streaming division trending profitably, and declining legacy TV networks plus unpredictable studio performance.
  • “The drag down from the TV networks and the studios is kind of weighing a lot on the narrative.” (Geetha, [03:39])

• Streaming & Bundling Strategy:

  • Disney’s strength is in bundling—40% of new subs opt for bundles (e.g., Disney+, ESPN+).
  • The ESPN Ultimate product ($29.99/month) is gaining some traction but hard subscriber numbers weren’t disclosed.

• Consumer Experience:

  • “Is the consumer better off? Absolutely not... It’s too confusing.” (Paul & Scarlet, [05:13])
  • Fragmented sports/entertainment streaming market raises friction; Disney likely to pursue more bundling and external partnerships (Fox, NBC, Amazon) to become a “premier sports destination.”

• Industry Dynamics:

  • Disney’s 40% share of U.S. sports viewing (via NFL, NBA, MLB, college football) gives it leverage amid ‘standoffs’ with platforms like YouTube TV.

• Leadership Succession:

  • Process for Bob Iger’s successor underway; likely to appoint from inside, with board committee headed by James Gorman targeting March for an announcement.

Notable Quotes

• “Disney really has this very, very tough balancing act...” — Geetha Ranganathan, [03:26]
• “I don’t think we’ve reached the limits [of bundling] at all, Scarlett...” — Geetha, [05:33]
• “There is the standoff going on between Disney and YouTube TV and it’s really...a game of chicken here.” — Geetha, [06:42]

2. Retail Sector Holiday Outlook

Guest: Mary Ross Gilbert, Senior Equity Analyst
Key Segment: [08:17 – 13:02]

Key Points

• Overall Outlook:

  • Holiday retail is “very positive,” with apparel the most in-demand gift.
  • Gen Z plans a 23% spending cut, possibly due to tougher job market.

• ‘K-shaped’ Retail Economy:

  • Asset owners (stocks, real estate) fare better; low-income consumers feel continued inflation pain.

• Retail Resilience:

  • Off-price retailers (TJ Maxx, Ross, Burlington) showing “robust sales”; Macy’s doing 50%+ Black Friday deals early.
  • Credit card delinquencies lower overall YoY, except among very low income shoppers.

• E-commerce Dynamics:

  • Online sales increasing at most department stores, except Kohl’s.
  • Shopping channel preferences differ: Gen Z prefers in-store (esp. for brands like Hollister); millennials favor online (60% of Abercrombie sales online).

Notable Quotes

• “If you look at how the holiday shopping is shaping up, I think it looks very positive.” — Mary Ross Gilbert, [08:17]
• “Gen Z is planning to cut back on their overall holiday spending by...23%.” — Mary Ross Gilbert, [08:59]

3. Metsera Bidding War: Pfizer vs. Novo Nordisk

Guest: Sam Fazelli, Director of Research for Global Industries & Senior Pharma Analyst
Key Segment: [15:29 – 19:07]

Key Points

• Why Pfizer Won:

  • Novo’s bid for Metsera was at FTC risk; regulators warned of possible antitrust issues with Novo, causing the sellers to go with Pfizer’s now-higher (and safer) bid.

• Market Implications:

  • The fight isn’t over for Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly; obesity remains the hottest pharma space for ’25–‘26 with multiple differentiated assets and mechanisms in development.
  • “Obesity has been the talk of this past 2025. I think it will still be the talk of 2026, but there’s a lot more going on in pharma.” — Sam Fazelli, [17:48]

• Industry Winners/Losers:

  • Stock performance sharply split: “If you have obesity exposure, the stocks are up; if you don’t, they’re down.” — Paul Sweeney, [17:23]
  • Eli Lilly remains best positioned for now but plenty of room for multiple winners.

Notable Quotes

• “AstraZeneca...their big plays in oncology, cardiovascular...Yes, obesity has been the talk of this past 2025...” — Sam Fazelli, [17:48]
• “I think Eli Lilly is currently very well placed with the assets they have to compete.” — Sam Fazelli, [18:50]

4. Circle Internet Group Earnings & Stablecoin Industry

Guest: Emily Mason, Fintech & Crypto Reporter
Key Segment: [22:55 – 28:02]

Key Points

• Earnings Context:

  • Stock dropped despite sales/earnings beat—investors are wary about declining rate environment hitting revenue (Circle profits from yield on USDC reserves in Treasuries).
  • “If interest rates go down, that shows up in earnings and that causes some concern for investors and analysts.” — Emily Mason, [23:13]

• Revenue Diversification:

  • CEO Jeremy Allaire confident about new products: Circle Payments Network, international stablecoin payouts, and greater control over USDC distribution (moving away from dependence on Coinbase).

• Fintech–Crypto Convergence:

  • Circle sits at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance (“trad fi of the defi world”).
  • Push for regulatory clarity—positioning as more ‘respectable’ and compliant.

• Stablecoin Demand Drivers:

  • Increased USDC use will come less from crypto trading parallels and more from global payments, especially in countries with volatile currencies.

Notable Quotes

• “Circle...really is sitting at the center of that and trying to bring stablecoin and integrate that with how traditional markets work.” — Emily Mason, [25:20]
• “The whole point is that it's like a stable currency...the price of it really shouldn’t be impacted at all by crypto market movements.” — Emily Mason, [26:47]

5. Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffett Steps Back

Guest: Matthew Palazzolo, Senior Insurance Analyst
Key Segment: [30:33 – 35:58]

Key Points

• Buffett ‘Going Quiet’:

  • Not a surprise he’s stepping down as CEO at 95, but the abrupt “going quiet” was unexpected—he will focus on philanthropy, stepping up $1.3 billion in family foundation donations.

• Succession Confidence:

  • Greg Abel seen as aligned with Buffett ethos—likely no drastic change immediately.
  • “I think Abel walks a fine line now where...he will want to put his own stamp and make a name for himself, but also not stray too far from what has led to this massive value creation at Berkshire.” — Matthew Palazzolo, [31:55]

• Capital Allocation:

  • Berkshire now sits on $382B cash (!) due to lack of sufficiently large or attractive acquisition targets.
  • Historic resistance to paying dividends; Buffett preferred to reinvest in America rather than pay out and “has been the best allocator” — but the size of the cash pile now is a puzzle for investors.

• Control & Future:

  • Buffett’s A-shares & voting control ensure no activist investor can step in, even posthumously (ownership will be unwound over a decade via his children’s foundations).

Notable Quotes

• “He likes collecting dividends, he doesn’t like paying them.” — Matthew Palazzolo, [33:39]
• “It boggles the mind. I think even in the letter he had mentioned there’s just not a lot of things that move the needle for them.” — Matthew Palazzolo, [32:54]

6. Visa-Mastercard Retailer Settlement

Guest: Justin Teresi, Antitrust Litigation & Policy Analyst
Key Segment: [36:04 – 42:36]

Key Points

• Case Overview:

  • 20-year lawsuit over credit card “swipe fees” (3–4%) charged to merchants, which funded lucrative card rewards for consumers but ate into merchant profits.
  • New deal gives merchants flexibility to reject premium/rewards cards or pass fees on to consumers, with significant implications for industry pricing and acceptance.

• Legal/State Complexities:

  • Merchant ability to surcharge varies by state—NY, MA, CT continue prohibitions.
  • National Retail Federation expressing concern—especially if deal terms marginalize large chains (Walmart, etc.).

• Settlement Value & Industry Impact:

  • $111 billion in swipe fees collected last year alone; settlement poised to shift costs and possibly business models in payments.
  • American Express was not part of the same deal, but the outcome may force Amex to loosen restrictions on surcharging as competitive landscape shifts.

• Consumer Impact:

  • Potential for less universal acceptance of premium cards, greater use of cash discounts/surcharges, and changes to gamification for points chasers.
  • “I mean, every day it’s like, oh, these Amex offers, what can I get here for this discount?” — Justin Teresi, [41:19]

Notable Quotes

• “Basically what a lot of folks don’t know is when you have those really valuable premium cards...there’s a fee associated with those. And it’s the merchants who are eating that fee...” — Justin Teresi, [36:18]
• “Their thought has been, we don’t want to do that [return cash to shareholders].” — Matthew Palazzolo, [33:30]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Disney segment: [03:02 – 07:56]
• Retail/Holiday outlook: [08:17 – 13:02]
• Metsera/Pfizer/Novo Nordisk: [15:29 – 19:07]
• Circle Internet Group: [22:55 – 28:02]
• Berkshire Hathaway/Buffett: [30:33 – 35:58]
• Visa-Mastercard settlement: [36:04 – 42:36]

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “Disney really has this very, very tough balancing act...” — Geetha Ranganathan [03:26]
• “Gen Z is planning to cut back on their overall holiday spending by...23%.” — Mary Ross Gilbert [08:59]
• “Obesity has been the talk of this past 2025. I think it will still be the talk of 2026, but there’s a lot more going on in pharma.” — Sam Fazelli [17:48]
• “He likes collecting dividends, he doesn’t like paying them.” — Matthew Palazzolo [33:39]
• “There’s a fee associated with those [premium cards]. And it’s the merchants who are eating that fee...” — Justin Teresi [36:18]

Summary Takeaways

This episode offered clear, quantitatively supported insights into pivotal financial and business stories:

• Disney’s central struggle is balancing verticals, facing legacy drag despite streaming and parks upside.
• Retail holiday optimism persists, but spending splits along generational and income lines.
• Obesity drugs will dominate biopharma narratives for years, with multiple multinationals jockeying for advantage.
• Litigation-driven change is remaking how Americans pay, reshaping credit card rewards and merchant fee structures.
• Long-anticipated leadership transitions (Disney, Berkshire) are underway, with stakeholders closely watching for “the next act.”

For a full breakdown of sector impacts, corporate strategies, and evolving business models, this episode is essential listening for market followers and industry professionals.