BI Weekend: Disney Earnings, Metsera Bidding War, Visa-Mastercard Deal

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode: BI Weekend: Disney Earnings, Metsera Bidding War, Visa-Mastercard Deal
Hosts: Scarlet Fu & Paul Sweeney
Date: November 14, 2025

Overview

This episode dives into recent market-defining headlines with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, offering in-depth research and expert takes on:

• Disney’s latest earnings and the challenges shaping its future
• The Metsera bidding war between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk and broader implications for obesity drug markets
• Visa and MasterCard’s long-awaited litigation settlement with retailers
• Updates from the retail sector, Circle Internet Group’s earnings, Tyson Foods outlook, and Warren Buffett’s “going quiet” announcement at Berkshire Hathaway

---

1. Disney’s Earnings & Strategy

Guest: Geetha Ranganathan, Senior Media Analyst
Key Segment: [03:02 – 07:56]

Discussion Highlights

• Earnings Recap:

  • Q4 sales were “lackluster,” with parks division posting a 13% jump in profit — continues to generate about 60% of company profits.
  • Big-budget movie expenses (notably a new Avatar film) will weigh on the next quarter.

• Core Challenge:

  • Disney faces a “very, very tough balancing act” managing profits from parks, a streaming division trending profitably, and declining legacy TV networks plus unpredictable studio performance.
  • “The drag down from the TV networks and the studios is kind of weighing a lot on the narrative.” (Geetha, [03:39])

• Streaming & Bundling Strategy:

  • Disney’s strength is in bundling—40% of new subs opt for bundles (e.g., Disney+, ESPN+).
  • The ESPN Ultimate product ($29.99/month) is gaining some traction but hard subscriber numbers weren’t disclosed.

• Consumer Experience:

  • “Is the consumer better off? Absolutely not... It’s too confusing.” (Paul & Scarlet, [05:13])
  • Fragmented sports/entertainment streaming market raises friction; Disney likely to pursue more bundling and external partnerships (Fox, NBC, Amazon) to become a “premier sports destination.”

• Industry Dynamics:

  • Disney’s 40% share of U.S. sports viewing (via NFL, NBA, MLB, college football) gives it leverage amid ‘standoffs’ with platforms like YouTube TV.

• Leadership Succession:

  • Process for Bob Iger’s successor underway; likely to appoint from inside, with board committee headed by James Gorman targeting March for an announcement.

Notable Quotes

• “Disney really has this very, very tough balancing act...” — Geetha Ranganathan, [03:26]
• “I don’t think we’ve reached the limits [of bundling] at all, Scarlett...” — Geetha, [05:33]
• “There is the standoff going on between Disney and YouTube TV and it’s really...a game of chicken here.” — Geetha, [06:42]

---

2. Retail Sector Holiday Outlook

Guest: Mary Ross Gilbert, Senior Equity Analyst
Key Segment: [08:17 – 13:02]

Key Points

• Overall Outlook:

  • Holiday retail is “very positive,” with apparel the most in-demand gift.
  • Gen Z plans a 23% spending cut, possibly due to tougher job market.

• ‘K-shaped’ Retail Economy:

  • Asset owners (stocks, real estate) fare better; low-income consumers feel continued inflation pain.

• Retail Resilience:

  • Off-price retailers (TJ Maxx, Ross, Burlington) showing “robust sales”; Macy’s doing 50%+ Black Friday deals early.
  • Credit card delinquencies lower overall YoY, except among very low income shoppers.

• E-commerce Dynamics:

  • Online sales increasing at most department stores, except Kohl’s.
  • Shopping channel preferences differ: Gen Z prefers in-store (esp. for brands like Hollister); millennials favor online (60% of Abercrombie sales online).

Notable Quotes

• “If you look at how the holiday shopping is shaping up, I think it looks very positive.” — Mary Ross Gilbert, [08:17]
• “Gen Z is planning to cut back on their overall holiday spending by...23%.” — Mary Ross Gilbert, [08:59]

---

3. Metsera Bidding War: Pfizer vs. Novo Nordisk

Guest: Sam Fazelli, Director of Research for Global Industries & Senior Pharma Analyst
Key Segment: [15:29 – 19:07]

Key Points

• Why Pfizer Won:

  • Novo’s bid for Metsera was at FTC risk; regulators warned of possible antitrust issues with Novo, causing the sellers to go with Pfizer’s now-higher (and safer) bid.

• Market Implications:

  • The fight isn’t over for Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly; obesity remains the hottest pharma space for ’25–‘26 with multiple differentiated assets and mechanisms in development.
  • “Obesity has been the talk of this past 2025. I think it will still be the talk of 2026, but there’s a lot more going on in pharma.” — Sam Fazelli, [17:48]

• Industry Winners/Losers:

  • Stock performance sharply split: “If you have obesity exposure, the stocks are up; if you don’t, they’re down.” — Paul Sweeney, [17:23]
  • Eli Lilly remains best positioned for now but plenty of room for multiple winners.

Notable Quotes

• “AstraZeneca...their big plays in oncology, cardiovascular...Yes, obesity has been the talk of this past 2025...” — Sam Fazelli, [17:48]
• “I think Eli Lilly is currently very well placed with the assets they have to compete.” — Sam Fazelli, [18:50]

---

4. Circle Internet Group Earnings & Stablecoin Industry

Guest: Emily Mason, Fintech & Crypto Reporter
Key Segment: [22:55 – 28:02]

Key Points

• Earnings Context:

  • Stock dropped despite sales/earnings beat—investors are wary about declining rate environment hitting revenue (Circle profits from yield on USDC reserves in Treasuries).
  • “If interest rates go down, that shows up in earnings and that causes some concern for investors and analysts.” — Emily Mason, [23:13]

• Revenue Diversification:

  • CEO Jeremy Allaire confident about new products: Circle Payments Network, international stablecoin payouts, and greater control over USDC distribution (moving away from dependence on Coinbase).

• Fintech–Crypto Convergence:

  • Circle sits at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance (“trad fi of the defi world”).
  • Push for regulatory clarity—positioning as more ‘respectable’ and compliant.

• Stablecoin Demand Drivers:

  • Increased USDC use will come less from crypto trading parallels and more from global payments, especially in countries with volatile currencies.

Notable Quotes

• “Circle...really is sitting at the center of that and trying to bring stablecoin and integrate that with how traditional markets work.” — Emily Mason, [25:20]
• “The whole point is that it's like a stable currency...the price of it really shouldn’t be impacted at all by crypto market movements.” — Emily Mason, [26:47]

---

5. Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffett Steps Back

Guest: Matthew Palazzolo, Senior Insurance Analyst
Key Segment: [30:33 – 35:58]

Key Points

• Buffett ‘Going Quiet’:

  • Not a surprise he’s stepping down as CEO at 95, but the abrupt “going quiet” was unexpected—he will focus on philanthropy, stepping up $1.3 billion in family foundation donations.

• Succession Confidence:

  • Greg Abel seen as aligned with Buffett ethos—likely no drastic change immediately.
  • “I think Abel walks a fine line now where...he will want to put his own stamp and make a name for himself, but also not stray too far from what has led to this massive value creation at Berkshire.” — Matthew Palazzolo, [31:55]

• Capital Allocation:

  • Berkshire now sits on $382B cash (!) due to lack of sufficiently large or attractive acquisition targets.
  • Historic resistance to paying dividends; Buffett preferred to reinvest in America rather than pay out and “has been the best allocator” — but the size of the cash pile now is a puzzle for investors.

• Control & Future:

  • Buffett’s A-shares & voting control ensure no activist investor can step in, even posthumously (ownership will be unwound over a decade via his children’s foundations).

Notable Quotes

• “He likes collecting dividends, he doesn’t like paying them.” — Matthew Palazzolo, [33:39]
• “It boggles the mind. I think even in the letter he had mentioned there’s just not a lot of things that move the needle for them.” — Matthew Palazzolo, [32:54]

---

6. Visa-Mastercard Retailer Settlement

Guest: Justin Teresi, Antitrust Litigation & Policy Analyst
Key Segment: [36:04 – 42:36]

Key Points

• Case Overview:

  • 20-year lawsuit over credit card “swipe fees” (3–4%) charged to merchants, which funded lucrative card rewards for consumers but ate into merchant profits.
  • New deal gives merchants flexibility to reject premium/rewards cards or pass fees on to consumers, with significant implications for industry pricing and acceptance.

• Legal/State Complexities:

  • Merchant ability to surcharge varies by state—NY, MA, CT continue prohibitions.
  • National Retail Federation expressing concern—especially if deal terms marginalize large chains (Walmart, etc.).

• Settlement Value & Industry Impact:

  • $111 billion in swipe fees collected last year alone; settlement poised to shift costs and possibly business models in payments.
  • American Express was not part of the same deal, but the outcome may force Amex to loosen restrictions on surcharging as competitive landscape shifts.

• Consumer Impact:

  • Potential for less universal acceptance of premium cards, greater use of cash discounts/surcharges, and changes to gamification for points chasers.
  • “I mean, every day it’s like, oh, these Amex offers, what can I get here for this discount?” — Justin Teresi, [41:19]

Notable Quotes

• “Basically what a lot of folks don’t know is when you have those really valuable premium cards...there’s a fee associated with those. And it’s the merchants who are eating that fee...” — Justin Teresi, [36:18]
• “Their thought has been, we don’t want to do that [return cash to shareholders].” — Matthew Palazzolo, [33:30]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Disney segment: [03:02 – 07:56]
• Retail/Holiday outlook: [08:17 – 13:02]
• Metsera/Pfizer/Novo Nordisk: [15:29 – 19:07]
• Circle Internet Group: [22:55 – 28:02]
• Berkshire Hathaway/Buffett: [30:33 – 35:58]
• Visa-Mastercard settlement: [36:04 – 42:36]

---

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “Disney really has this very, very tough balancing act...” — Geetha Ranganathan [03:26]
• “Gen Z is planning to cut back on their overall holiday spending by...23%.” — Mary Ross Gilbert [08:59]
• “Obesity has been the talk of this past 2025. I think it will still be the talk of 2026, but there’s a lot more going on in pharma.” — Sam Fazelli [17:48]
• “He likes collecting dividends, he doesn’t like paying them.” — Matthew Palazzolo [33:39]
• “There’s a fee associated with those [premium cards]. And it’s the merchants who are eating that fee...” — Justin Teresi [36:18]

---

Summary Takeaways

This episode offered clear, quantitatively supported insights into pivotal financial and business stories:

• Disney’s central struggle is balancing verticals, facing legacy drag despite streaming and parks upside.
• Retail holiday optimism persists, but spending splits along generational and income lines.
• Obesity drugs will dominate biopharma narratives for years, with multiple multinationals jockeying for advantage.
• Litigation-driven change is remaking how Americans pay, reshaping credit card rewards and merchant fee structures.
• Long-anticipated leadership transitions (Disney, Berkshire) are underway, with stakeholders closely watching for “the next act.”

For a full breakdown of sector impacts, corporate strategies, and evolving business models, this episode is essential listening for market followers and industry professionals.

Transcript

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

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[Scarlet Fu]

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[Emily Mason]

Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney.

[Paul Sweeney]

How do you think the Fed is looking at tariffs? The uncertainty of tariffs?

[Scarlet Fu]

Let's take a look at the sectors and how they perform.

[Paul Sweeney]

A lot of investors getting whipsawed every.

[Scarlet Fu]

Day by news events, breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe. Could we see a market disruption? A market event?

[Paul Sweeney]

People just too exuberant out there?

[Scarlet Fu]

You see some so called low quality stocks driving this short term rally. Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio, YouTube and Bloomberg.

[Paul Sweeney]

Originals on today's Bloomberg Intelligence show, we dig inside the big business stories impacting Wall street in the global markets.

[Scarlet Fu]

Each and every week we provide in depth research and data on some of the 2000 companies and 130 industries our analysts cover worldwide.

[Paul Sweeney]

Today we'll look at how Pfizer won a bidding war against the Danish drug maker Novo Nordisk for an obesity startup.

[Scarlet Fu]

Plus we'll break down how Visa and MasterCard reached a deal with retailers after 20 years of litigation.

[Paul Sweeney]

But first, we begin with earnings from the media and entertainment giant Walt Disney.

[Scarlet Fu]

This week, Disney reported fourth quarter sales that fell short of Wall street estimates. The company also said expenses from a slate of big budget movies, including a new Avatar picture, will weigh on results for the coming quarter.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more, we were joined by Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Media analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We first asked Geetha for her take on Disney's most recent earnings report.

[Geetha Ranganathan]

It came off as a little bit of a lackluster report. I mean, everything, if you look at the fundamental drivers of the company, which is really the parks business brings in about 60% profits. Things seem to be going pretty strong there. We saw a 13% jump in operating profit for the fiscal fourth quarter. Again, the guidance for 2026 seems pretty good as well. But really, Disney really has this very, very tough balancing act. So on the one hand, they have the parks business, they have the streaming business, which is doing really well from a profitability standpoint. But to drag it down, you have the linear TV networks and then you have the hit and miss nature of the Hollywood studio business. So they have to contend with all of those different moving. And I think that the drag down from the TV networks and the studios is kind of weighing a lot on the narrative.

[Paul Sweeney]

Geeta, talk to us about some of their bundling of all their streaming services, particularly that ESPN app that really they put a lot of the real valuable sports programming on that ESPN app. How are the early results from terms of subscriber growth?

[Geetha Ranganathan]

So they didn't give us any hard number there, Paul, in terms of the number of subscribers that they got on the ESPN ultimate product, which is priced at 29.99amonth. But they did talk about you in general that the traction has been pretty good. They talked about the whole bundling strategy because that is where Disney really wins. I mean, if we've seen some of the numbers, you know, from Disney, we know that 40% of new subscribers actually take the Disney bundle. And this is really going to be the strategy for them going forward. Right? You get people in with the bundle and that's how you kind of stem churn. You're able to take price increases. So it's really going to be the main driver for earnings growth for them going forward. And that's exactly what they indicated.

[Scarlet Fu]

Paul, I can't remember who said this, but it's so true that the history of media is about bundling and unbundling. We went through this period where Everyone cut the cord and everyone unbundled. And now we're back to bundling again. Although it's, you know, in these discrete groups where Disney might bundle Disney plus and ESPN plus together. And then if you are a T Mobile subscriber, you might get some other options and here.

[Paul Sweeney]

But here's my point. That's fine. Is the consumer better off? And Mike answers, absolutely not.

[Scarlet Fu]

It's too confusing. It's way too confusing. Geeta, when it comes to bundling, how much more can they do though? I mean, I see what you're saying about how it's paying off right now, but I mean, can they continue to innovate on their bundling or is that, have we reached the limits of it?

[Geetha Ranganathan]

I don't think we've reached the limits at all, Scarlett. So I think what they're ultimately, what they're ultimately aiming for with their ESPN product and you know, they just introduced the streaming product a couple of months ago. I think ultimately they wanted to kind of become the premier sports destination. So you know, ultimately I wouldn't be surprised if you see a Fox or an NBC or you know, even maybe an Amazon kind of feeding in all of their apps so that you go to this one stop shop for, you know, ESPN and you're able to see all different kinds of sports content. Because you're absolutely right, there's way too much of fragmentation. It's becoming, it's becoming a great source of friction for, you know, the average consumer. And so I think they're going to seek out a lot more different bundling opportunities. We're already seeing them kind of do something with ESPN ultimate and Fox one, which is Fox's streaming product that they also just introduced a few months ago. So they're going to look to partner with different media platforms across the ecosystem. And I think that is going to be a source of, you know, a great upside opportunity for them eventually.

[Scarlet Fu]

Is everyone willing to play ball on something like that, Geeta? Or is there someone who's going to say, you know what, you can't get me in here and I own or I have the rights over X number of NFL games.

[Geetha Ranganathan]

So actually that's what we're seeing right now. There is the standoff going, going on between Disney and YouTube TV and it's really all, again, it's just a, you know, game of chicken here. When it comes to sports content, I have to say Disney has the upper hand a little bit. So if you just kind of look at sports viewing in the United States, Disney has about 40% of sports viewing just with marquee rights tied to all major leagues, college football, NFL, NBA, mlb, they have it all. So I think it becomes a little harder to say no to them. But again, never say never.

[Paul Sweeney]

All right, Geeth, I'm reluctant to ask this question, but I feel like I have to. What's the latest on Bob Iger succession plan?

[Geetha Ranganathan]

Yeah, this is the big thing that we're all looking at in fiscal 2026. So James Gorman, who's kind of heading up this whole succession planning committee, Paul, has said that, you know, the board will be out with a decision by the end of March. So Bob Iger's contract comes to an end by the end of 2026. So hopefully we do have some kind of clarity on that. Right now it's really looking like it's going to be internal candidates. I mean, there was some, you know, rum buzz about whether they were looking externally, but I think they're going to kind of keep it internal.

[Paul Sweeney]

Our thanks to Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Media analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We move next to the retail space and with the holiday shopping season now upon us, it is the most important time of the year for these retailers.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more on what we can expect in this sector, I was joined by Mary Ross Gilbert, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Equity analyst covering retail. I first asked Mary how the holiday season is shaping up and what companies are saying.

[Mary Ross Gilbert]

If you look at how the holiday shopping is, is shaping up, I think it looks, I think it looks very positive. So I think we are going to see an increase and particularly for apparel retailers, that's usually like the largest category that consumers, if you look at those that have been pulled by all the holiday service surveys that have been conducted, including the National Retail Federation, and they have over 800, over 8,8200 respondents in their surveys. And the other ones are pretty sizable, you know, relatively speaking, around 5,000. So they're showing that there's definitely a higher percentage of shoppers wanting apparel and accessories for gifts. So that should be good news for apparel. But Gen Z is planning to cut back on their overall holiday spending by there that, you know, by 23% millennials. Just 1%.

[Paul Sweeney]

Wow. So the Gen Z, these are the younger folks, maybe tougher time finding a job, maybe student debt, is that kind of the driver there?

[Mary Ross Gilbert]

I think that could be part of it. Yeah. It could be the job market situation that might be happening there because these are really like the 17 to 28 year olds.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Okay.

[Mary Ross Gilbert]

We have been hearing some, you know, talk about some of these latest Graduates, you know, having a difficulty finding a job. I think it's just probably going to take longer because generally unemployment is still very low. But we're seeing resilience. If you look at the data so far with Bloomberg, second measure for apparel retailers and department stores and off price, we're seeing good sales coming in for the third quarter and they'll start reporting their numbers in the next few weeks. So I think we're off to a good start and I think Black Friday sales are already happening. Macy's is out with 50% off on their private label brand product and they expect to have other drops every week. So everyone's focused on starting now with the promotions.

[Paul Sweeney]

So Mary, economists talk about a K shaped economy out there. Some consumers, maybe the ones that own assets like stocks and bonds and real estate doing more than good and everybody else struggling a little bit, particularly with inflation. How does that get reflected in retail sales? Does it mean you just kind of, if you're an investor, look at Amazon, Target, where I can get some deals.

[Mary Ross Gilbert]

Yeah. And that's actually what's happening. And that's why you see, let's say pretty robust sales overall coming out of the off price. You know, so think of TJ Maxx Ross stores and Burlington stores and Burlington's at the very low end if you look at credit card delinquencies or you know, those rates. And a lot of these companies that we're tracking represent the credit card holders for like department stores and for some select apparel brands such as Gap, et cetera. And then when you look at that data, delinquencies are actually lower this year versus a year ago, but not for the very low income, which kind of speaks to what you're talking about. And inflation, actually those are up in the teens, you know, for the very low income consumer. So think like under 50k.

[Paul Sweeney]

How about E Commerce? Mary, I know the pandemic folks are saying kind of pulled forward maybe four or five years of share shift from bricks and mortar to digital. What's the E commerce growth story look like these days?

[Mary Ross Gilbert]

E Comm growth is looking strong. When we look at the data, like I said for the third quarter that we're seeing from Bloomberg's second measure, it's showing actually online sales were stronger at the department stores except for Kohl's, Kohl's online businesses. I mean not their online business, but actually their credit customer is, is shopping less, like in the double digits less. So that's kind of an issue for them. But generally we're seeing stronger pool with online sales there. Now there is also a delineation between the type of consumer. If it's Gen Z, they tend to prefer shopping more in store. And we see that with Abercrombie and Fitch's Hollister brand. So they are about 70% of their sales are generated online. And then it's the inverse when you look at their namesake brand Abercrombie, because that consumer is those are millennials. And millennials prefer to shop online. So 60% of their sales are being generated online versus in store.

[Scarlet Fu]

That was Mary Ross Gilbert, Bloomberg Intelligence senior equity analyst who covers retail. Coming up, we'll take a look at why Tyson Foods says it expects flat profits for 2026.

[Paul Sweeney]

You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio providing in depth research and data on 2,000 companies in 130 industries.

[Scarlet Fu]

You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via Bigo on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

What is actual investing? We believe that it's a real world task to deliver thoughtful capital deployment. It's not about speculating over the short term. It's about understanding the long term opportunities for companies through technological progress or new business models. So we seek out those exploring big new ideas that will change the world. Then we back them to give those ideas time to flourish. Baillie Gifford Actual investors Find out [e-mail].

[Paul Sweeney]

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[Scarlet Fu]

This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move now to some news in the pharmaceutical space.

[Scarlet Fu]

This week, Pfizer won the bidding war against the Danish drugmaker Novodordisk for the obesity startup Metzera. It's a bid to catch up to rival drug makers after failing to compete with its its own weight loss medications.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more, we were joined by Sam Fazelli, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of research for Global Industries and senior pharmaceuticals Analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We began by asking Sam to tell us why Pfizer won this deal.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Nova's deal had the risk of not being able to pass due to competition, competition issues, FTC issues. And it sounds like the FTC had given Metzera a call saying, look, if you go with that, there is a risk it won't close. So do whatever you think is the right thing for your shareholders. And they did in the end. And Pfizer did up its bitcoin.

[Scarlet Fu]

Right. So Novo Nordisk won in a way in that Pfizer is paying up more. Does that actually work in Novo Nordisk favor or does it, is it still as desperate as it was before to look for some new catalysts in the obesity market?

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

I mean, I'm not going to call Nova desperate. I think they have assets in there. I think they wanted to add some more options to the their sales reps bags over time. So I wouldn't call them desperate. But obviously by going after this, they did say that we need more assets in our bank. So. And Lilly wasn't in the game. So it just gives them that gives you that flavor that, that they are. And I think the market's telling you that look at the divergence of the share price performance of Lilly versus Novo Nordisk, that there's the market favoring the drugs that Lilly's got on the market and to compete they needed to get some more. So I think this is not the end for Novo at all. In this space there's lots of other interesting obesity assets coming with different mechanisms. That's the thing that I think the company is now going to have to think about rather than trying to go after the same mechanism all the time.

[Paul Sweeney]

So Sam, all these big, big cap pharmaceutical companies that you've covered for decades, I kind of always thought they were big diversified portfolios of lots of different drugs and therapeutics and, you know, but boy, when I look at your stocks this year, it seems like there's halves and have nots. If you have obesity exposure, the stocks are up and if you don't, they're down. Is that kind of how your world's evolved into over the last several years?

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

I would just give you one little caveat to that. AstraZeneca. AstraZeneca, I think is doing fine. And then they have an obesity asset, but it's not their major game. Their big plays in oncology cardiovascular is there and they're adding it to it. So, yes, obesity has been the talk of this past 2025. I think it will still be the talk of 2026, but there's a lot more going on in pharma. Neuroscience, diseases of the brain, diseases of mental health are getting much more attention. Cardiovascular, aside from obesity, is getting quite a lot of attention in heart to treat hypertension, et cetera. I have to tell you, I don't think there's an area, perhaps antibiotics set aside that is not getting a significant amount of progress across some pharma company somewhere.

[Scarlet Fu]

Is what happened with Matsara, Novo, Doordisk and Pfizer an unabashed victory for Eli Lilly? I mean, does it just kind of keep on moving forward, or does any of this kind of hurt Eli Lilly's market position?

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

No. I mean, at the end of the day, there'll be multiple players in this space, as there are now two at least. And I think Eli Lilly is currently very well placed with the assets that they have to compete. And they're showing that they're competing very, very effectively and in some cases, winning market share.

[Paul Sweeney]

From Novo Nordisk, our thanks to Sam Fazeli, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of Research for Global Industries and senior Pharmaceuticals analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We move to news from the multinational food company Tyson Foods.

[Paul Sweeney]

This week, Tyson said it expects flat profits for 2026. This comes as the company's chicken segment continues to help offset its beef losses.

[Scarlet Fu]

So we had to check in with Jen Bartashas, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst for retail, staples and packaged food.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked Jen for her take on Tyson foods guidance for 2026.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Nova's deal had a risk of not being able to pass due to competition, competition, FTC issues. And it sounds like the FTC had given Metcera a call saying, look, if you go with that, there is a risk it won't close, so do whatever you think is the right thing for your shareholders. And they did in the end. And Pfizer did up its bid.

[Scarlet Fu]

Right. So Novo Nordisk won in a way in that Pfizer is paying up more. Does that actually work in Novo Nordisk favor or does it. Is it still as desperate as it was before to look for some new catalysts in the obesity market?

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

I mean, I'm not going to call Nova desperate. I think they have assets in there. I think they wanted to add some more options to the, their sales reps bags over time. So I wouldn't call them desperate, but they're obviously by going after this, they did say that we need more assets in our bank and Lilly wasn't in the game. So it just gives you that flavor that, that, that they are. And I think the market's telling you that look at the divergence of the share price performance of Lilly versus Novo Nordisk that, that there's the market's favoring the drugs that Lilly's got on the market and to compete they needed to get some more. So I think this is not the end for Novo at all. In this space. There's lots of other interesting OBCD assets coming up with different mechanisms. That's the thing that I think the company is now gonna have to think about rather than trying to go after the same mechanism all the time.

[Paul Sweeney]

Sam, all these big cap pharmaceutical companies that you've covered for decades, I kind of always thought they were big diversified portfolios of lots of different drugs and therapeutics. But boy, when I look at your stocks this year, it seems like there's halves and have knots. If you have obesity exposure, the stocks are up and if you don't, they're down. Is that kind of how your world's evolved into over the last several years?

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

I would just give you one little caveat to that. AstraZeneca. AstraZeneca, I think is doing fine. And then they have an obesity asset, but it's not their major game. Their big plays in oncology, cardiovascular is there and they're adding it to it. So yes, obesity has been the talk of this past 2025. I think it will still be the talk of 2026, but there's a lot more going on in pharma, neuroscience. Diseases of the brain, diseases of mental health are getting much more attention. Cardiovascular, aside from obesity, is getting quite a lot of attention in heart to treat hypertension, et cetera. I have to tell you, I don't think there's an area, perhaps antibiotics set aside that is not getting a significant amount of progress across some pharma companies.

[Scarlet Fu]

Somewhere is what happened with Medsara. Novo DoorDisk and Pfizer. An unabashed victory for Eli Lilly. I mean, does it just kind of keep on moving forward or does any of this kind of hurt Eli Lilly's market position?

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

No. I mean, at the end of the day there'll be multiple players in this space as there are now two at least. And I think Eli Lilly is currently very well placed with the assets that they have to compete and they're showing that they're competing very, very effectively and in some cases winning market share.

[Scarlet Fu]

From Novo Nordisk, our thanks to Jen Bartashas, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst covering retail, staples and packaged foods.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move now to quarterly earnings from the global fintech company Circle Internet Group.

[Scarlet Fu]

This week, shares of the company fell on concern that declining interest rates will weigh on future returns. And this overshadowed better than expected third quarter sales and earnings.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more, we were joined by Emily Mason, Bloomberg Fintech and crypto reporter.

[Scarlet Fu]

We began by asking Emily why lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve would be a concern for a company like Circle.

[Emily Mason]

So Circle issues USDC and they that's a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar and they maintain that peg by holding reserves in cash and short term Treasuries. They keep the yield from the Treasuries and that's kind of how they make money. And that's where most of their revenue comes from. So if interest rates go down, you know, that shows up in earnings and that causes some concern for investors and analysts.

[Paul Sweeney]

So what have their recent results been like?

[Emily Mason]

I mean, this is their second time reporting since going public. They, you know, benefited heavily from all the hype around stablecoin, especially before the Genius act was passed and their stock performed really well. It's kind of been down since their summer highs. And that's kind of because of the concern from the interest revenue, but also because of some of the distribution partners that they have. They pay, they have revenue sharing agreements with Coinbase, for example, who helps distribute their coin.

[Scarlet Fu]

So if this company for now is kind of a proxy for a money market fund because its earnings track short term treasury yields, it must need to do more to diversify its revenue streams. What is it looking at?

[Emily Mason]

Yeah, that's what they're doing. And then if you talk to Jeremy Allaire, who's the CEO, he'll kind of say that lower interest rates are actually good for the company because it means that there's higher velocity of money, there's more investment, and then people want faster moving money like stablecoins. And they also might want to use products like their Circle payments network, which recently is experimenting with like a stablecoin payouts product, which, like, helps people. Can. Helps people to pay out globally with usdc. And they're trying to move more USDC volume onto their own platform instead of working with distribution partners like Coinbase. And that kind of could help them as well. But they see the lower interest rates as a positive thing. And also the USD circulating supply is increasing very heavily as they add new partners. So that also kind of could potentially offset the lower interest rates.

[Paul Sweeney]

Emily, your beat is fintech and crypto Reporter. Two things that didn't exist even just a handful of years ago talk to us about broadly the kind of the intersection of the growing crypto market and applications like FinTech.

[Emily Mason]

Yeah, I mean, I think what's kind of the most interesting right now is like, fintech, when it came onto the scene, was sort of like building very sleek interfaces on top of his existing financial infrastructure. And then crypto's pitch is much more sort of like rebuilding the financial infrastructure with things like blockchains. And now the conversation is kind of about bringing the traditional world and the traditional financial institute infrastructure together with crypto Rails and Circle's really kind of sitting at the center of that and trying to bring stablecoin and integrate that with how traditional markets work. And that involves a coming together on both sides. Traditional firms kind of have to upgrade and make their systems interoperable with, with. With crypto technology. And then crypto firms also have to kind of move into a regulated environment. And that's been something that Jeremy Allaire has talked about for a long time. Like he really thinks that crypto needs to be regulated. And Circle, that's been a big part of their narrative is like, we are kind of like the suits in the room and we're going to be regulated, and that's how we're going to go about doing business.

[Scarlet Fu]

They're kind of the most trad fi of the defi world. In other words, if I want to get technical. This is going to be a dumb question, Emily, but we've seen how Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies had a pretty rough October. They're struggling to regain momentum. All these digital coins are not the same as stablecoins, but is that shift in sentiment and conviction on Bitcoin and altcoins, especially from institutions, affecting demand at all for stablecoins, or are those two just not linked?

[Emily Mason]

I mean, stablecoin is used a lot of the times. Like anytime there's a Lot of trading happening in crypto like and in crypto tokens like stablecoins kind of benefit because they're used to like move in and out of those markets. The stablecoin, the whole point is that it's like a stable currency. It's pegged to the dollar, it's one for one. So, so the price of it really shouldn't be impacted at all by like crypto market movements.

[Scarlet Fu]

But it does it does demand affect it or does sorry, does the spillover involve like demand waning for Stablecoin or increasing for stablecoin?

[Emily Mason]

I think we're like the demand growth for stablecoin is going to come from is like it moving out of a tool for just for crypto trading. It's going to be like people in countries where the local currency is volatile wanting to hold stablecoin or people wanting to actually use it for payments or like stablecoin payouts. Like if you're a US based company and you're employing a bunch of people around the world who want to hold a stable currency like the dollar, the stablecoin is the best way to access it. Then you can pay them that way. Like that's where growth from, that's where demand for stablecoin is going to come from. I don't think it's like super tied to the trading necessarily. Like people use stablecoin to get in and out of crypto markets. So you know, they might see more volume of trading activity is high but their journeys are kind of becoming less linked.

[Paul Sweeney]

Our thanks to Emily Mason, Bloomberg Fintech and crypto reporter.

[Scarlet Fu]

Coming up, it's the end of an era at Berkshire Hathaway. We'll break down why CEO and billionaire investor Warren Buffett says he is quote going quiet.

[Paul Sweeney]

You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio providing in depth research and data on 2,000 companies in 130 industries.

[Scarlet Fu]

You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via BI Go on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Paul Swinney and this is Bloomberg. This is Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. JBL Tour Pro3 earbuds are for those.

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[Scarlet Fu]

This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move next to news at Berkshire Hathaway.

[Scarlet Fu]

Berkshire Hathaway CEO and billionaire investor Warren Buffett said he is, quote, going quiet, marking the end of an era. Buffett also announced his plan to donate more than $1.3 billion to four family foundations with plans to, quote, step up the pace for more.

[Paul Sweeney]

I was joined by Matthew Palazzolo, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst covering the insurance business. I first asked Matthew his thoughts on Buffett's latest announcement.

[Matthew Palazzolo]

We've known it, I mean this so we knew this letter was coming out. He does this every year around Thanksgiving. We also knew he was stepping down as CEO. So not a huge surprise in, in this letter. I think the going quiet thing was kind of took everyone a little bit by surprise. I think maybe the thought was, hey, he's, he's going to, he's stepping back as CEO, but maybe he'll kind of be out there in the public. And he's still chairman, so maybe we'd still hear more from him. A little while ago he said he wasn't going to speak at the meeting and now he's going to kind of focus on his philanthropic work. And he's also 95 years old. He's maybe a little tired.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yeah, exactly. And he's going to donate more than $1.3 billion to four family foundations and plans to, quote, step up the pace of his charitable giving to his kids foundations while he's still alive. So that seems to be the point of life. He has any reason to think that the business strategies, the operations of Berkshire Hathaway may change now that he has kind of stepped back another step? I guess.

[Matthew Palazzolo]

I don't think so right away. So he is always praising his successor, Greg Abel, talking about how he maintains the ethos of Berkshire and they'll be doing the same thing. I think Abel walks a fine line now where I think over the next couple of years he will want to put his own stamp and make a name for himself, but also not stray too far from what has led to this massive value creation at Berkshire. So I don't think anything dramatic happens in the near term. You know, we talked about this, I think in the past, the amount of capital they're sitting on. And Abel is a good capital allocator, like, at least according to Buffett, maybe something happens there, special dividend or something like that, no guarantees on any of that stuff. But I could see Abel wanting to put that kind of stamp on the.

[Paul Sweeney]

Company because again, what we learned from the last quarterly release was the cash is now $382 billion. It's a number that most portfolio managers wouldn't know where to start.

[Matthew Palazzolo]

It boggles the mind. I think even in the letter he had mentioned there's just not a lot of things that move the needle for them. So they bought a $12 billion company in Allegheny a couple of years ago. Doesn't really move the needle that much. It helped the insurance businesses grow a little bit, but overall for the company, not dramatic. They bought this $11 billion chemical business from Occidental. You know, these are 10 and 12 billion dollar deals, but they're just not moving the needle for the company. So there's not, not a ton they can do too dramatically, historically.

[Paul Sweeney]

Why is Warren and the company, what's been their thought about returning cash to shareholders?

[Matthew Palazzolo]

Their thought has been, we don't want to do that.

[Justin Teresi]

Right.

[Matthew Palazzolo]

He even said Berkshire shareholders have foregone dividends for reinvestment in America.

[Paul Sweeney]

Something like that.

[Matthew Palazzolo]

I forgot the exact line. And that was Buffett's. He likes collecting dividends, he doesn't like paying them. I think he always thought we are the best allocators of this. If you're a owner of Berkshire shares, would you rather have some money or would you rather have Warren Buffett invest that money for you? I think over the Past couple of years, again, they've had so much money that it's been tough for them to invest it in effective ways. But that's been the philosophy.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yeah, because, I mean, it's. I guess my response would be I can put it in cash too and get similar rates of return to you. And I guess that when it's 10, 20, 50, $100 billion lying around, not that big of a counter argument now, it's, it's significant.

[Matthew Palazzolo]

It helped their earnings over the past couple of years. Just getting 4% on that was a dramatic tailwind to their earnings. It didn't do much for the stock after Buffett said he was leaving. That's been the thing that's weighed on it more than anything else. You'll see short term rates going down, that tailwind diminishing. I think there is a school of thought that Berkshire, you know, not the same without Buffett, but just maybe not as good at almost all of their things. That's one, one school of thought. I could see other ones where, you know, still Abel maybe takes a different direction. So that's another maybe catalyst for the shares. But, you know, it's, it's a kind of darker time for Berkshire.

[Paul Sweeney]

And what's Warren's ownership stake in the company?

[Matthew Palazzolo]

I don't, off the top of my head, I don't remember.

[Paul Sweeney]

Is he still controlling?

[Matthew Palazzolo]

Yeah. Oh, for sure.

[Paul Sweeney]

And what, you're not going to have an activist investor come in here and say, this is just a poor allocation?

[Matthew Palazzolo]

It would be impossible. He owns too much. And the A shares, I believe, are 10,000 votes to a B share. He owns most of them. He's going to step up the amount he's giving away, but he still owns too much for anyone else to step in. And should he die in his will, he would. I think it's over 10 years. His ownership goes to these foundations run by his children, who I can't imagine would, you know, let them kind of immediately fall into the hands of some sort of activist investor. I think he'd set a timeframe of over 10 years that he'd want that stuff divested. But he does want to divest it. He doesn't want them to just hold onto it.

[Scarlet Fu]

Our thanks to Matthew Palazzola, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst covering insurance.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move next to the credit card space.

[Scarlet Fu]

This week, Visa MasterCard reached a deal with retailers after 20 years of litigation.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

So.

[Scarlet Fu]

So for more, we brought in Justin Teresi, Bloomberg Intelligence antitrust litigation and policy analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked Justin to break down visa, MasterCard case.

[Justin Teresi]

This case has been going on for about 20 years now. It started before I went to law school, which was a long time ago. There's salt and pepper in my hair. So we're talking about a really, really ancient case. But basically what a lot of folks don't know is when you have those really valuable premium cards right through the airline miles cards or the cashback cards, there's a fee associated with those. And it's the merchants who are eating that fee, typically around 3 or 4% depending on the varying swipe fee when you use it at a register. So merchants, no surprise, they're upset about that. Right. So Visa, you know, big litigation here, the accusation being that they fixed those fees and that, you know, the merchants are basically the ones eating the cost there. So big deal announced between Visa, MasterCard and merchants would make a little bit more flexibility on the part the of, of merchants here. They could basically say, hey, we're going to take the lower tier version of a visa or a MasterCard, but we're maybe not going to accept airline miles cards or cash back cards. And then alternatively they also might have the option of passing those fees onto you, the consumer at the register if they do take them. So some big changes here and how things are shaping up.

[Paul Sweeney]

Well, I've noticed in the last couple of three years they are doing that.

[Justin Teresi]

Yeah.

[Paul Sweeney]

I mean, almost every merchant I go to now, I don't know if it's just state of New Jersey thing, but they're saying, hey, here's the cash price, here's the credit card price.

[Justin Teresi]

Yeah, Paul, this is actually a really interesting issue here because state by state, there's a lot of differences in how this actually plays out in New York. And I see this too, when I go to my dry cleaner, it's like, oh, maybe that's 4% more if I'm going to use my credit card here. That's actually illegal in New York right now to do that. But the enforcement seems to be lacking. This is a new law passed in 2024. There has to be an upfront kind of, of price on a tag if they're going to pass a surcharge on to a consumer. In New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, you can't surcharge at all. So if this settlement goes through, you know, that's a big question mark too.

[Scarlet Fu]

Interesting that you say that that surcharge is illegal in New York because what I've seen is the dry cleaner will say, we'll give you a discount if you pay in cash. Here is the Regular price, but you get the discount if you pay in cash. So it's no longer a surcharge. Justin, you said that this has been a case that's been, you know, around for 20 some odd years. So, yes, this settlement, is it just going to get caught up in more legal wire?

[Justin Teresi]

You know, it really could. So. So last year there was a first attempt at this. This is the second try now. Right. And the big issue that blew up the deal last year is that the smaller merchants kind of pushed for the terms that they set in the first place. And big folks like Walmart, et cetera, kind of got iced out from the discussions on that, it seems like that might have happened again here. The National Retail Federation was out saying, wait a minute, what kind of business practice would this be for us to say, hey, we're going to take these cards and not those cards? And they're also criticizing the fee concessions that were part of this deal too, for the next five years or so. So I think there's still a lot of questions here. There's probably enough changes from last year's deal to get it over the finish line, but there's a big period here with objectors who are going to be weighing in on what they think of the deal. And honestly, the judge last year, she said, look, you guys can do a lot more than you're offering to do in this deal. Is this enough? That's going to be a huge question moving into an approval hearing.

[Paul Sweeney]

What are the dollar amounts we're talking about here?

[Justin Teresi]

It's quadrupled according to the national retail federation since 2009. But Visa, MasterCard, they've got 80% of this market for the card fees. $111 billion last year alone collected in these swipe fees, according to the nrf. Really massive. Massive. But you know, these companies are also diversifying their streams. Right. They're looking into digital wallets and other payment platforms, too. So there's a lot more on the table now than there was when this was first brought back in 2005.

[Scarlet Fu]

And to be clear, this is Visa and MasterCard and merchants. What about American Express? Where does it sit here?

[Justin Teresi]

Yeah, so that's another great question. American Express basically settled a version of this lawsuit or one. A version of this lawsuit years ago. Their car acceptance terms are a little bit different. Surcharging isn't really allowed with those when. When it's not applied to all card types. Right. But that begs the question, if you start allowing surcharging through cardholder, through acceptance agreements for Visa, MasterCard? Does Amex now have to allow surcharging on its card? So that's another big question mark. If this deal goes through, it really has the potential to impact everything, not just Visa and MasterCard.

[Scarlet Fu]

Paul. I remember when Amex used to be accepted everywhere. And then after a while it was like, oh, we'll take Visa, MasterCard, but not America, American Express.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yes.

[Scarlet Fu]

Because it was always for the merchants. Too expensive.

[Paul Sweeney]

Too expensive. Okay. Yeah, I haven't. I can't remember the last time I used my amex card. Literally can.

[Scarlet Fu]

It's there in your pocket, though.

[Paul Sweeney]

It's in my pocket.

[Scarlet Fu]

Okay. See, that's the thing. I mean, what does this mean for companies that have corporate cards? Justin?

[Justin Teresi]

So that's one of the different brackets here, too. So the way the settlement works is that it's going to divide cards into three different types. There'll be commercial cards, standard customer cards, and then premium customer cards. I think the commercial and standard cards, you want that corporate business. I think those two really are of the less concern. It's those premium cards, I think, with the rewards that really are on the line here in terms of whether or not they continue to have that universal acceptance everywhere.

[Scarlet Fu]

There's so many businesses built around how to gamify your points.

[Justin Teresi]

Oh, yeah, I love it.

[Paul Sweeney]

So you do that.

[Justin Teresi]

I absolutely love it. I mean, every day it's like, oh, these Amex offers, you know, what can I get here for this discount?

[Scarlet Fu]

Do you keep a spreadsheet tracking your spending?

[Justin Teresi]

But I really should, honestly. I mean, it's that good. I think so.

[Scarlet Fu]

Paul's like, I cannot get into this.

[Paul Sweeney]

But the kids are. Because, I mean, I've noticed it, that they really are good at gaming the system. And to the point where, you know, I'm going to Barcelona for the weekend on points, you know.

[Scarlet Fu]

Exactly. And these premium credit cards are almost like coupon books in many ways, right? Because they offer, you know, like $50 a quarter at. Well, actually it's $75 a quarter at Lululemon, for instance, Platinum card. And then people try to buy a gift card and stack them and use them like a year later.

[Justin Teresi]

Absolutely true. And they carry those really high annual fees. But then I always think to myself, look how much I'm getting back for this. It outweighs the fee sometimes, at least in my mind. So there you go.

[Scarlet Fu]

What are Visa, MasterCard saying about this?

[Justin Teresi]

So they signed onto this deal, they reached this agreement. I think they're pretty happy with. With the terms of it, because, you know, that kind of lets them walk away. The issuing banks like JP Morgan, bank of America, all of them are also defendants. They get to walk away from this litigation. The overhang would be removed. Right. So it's really the merchants, are all of the merchants going to sign on? And what do those objections look like in the next coming coming months to the court?

[Scarlet Fu]

Our thanks to Justin Teresi, Bloomberg Intelligence, antitrust litigation and policy Analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on 2,000 companies in 130 industries.

[Scarlet Fu]

And remember, you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via bigo on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up. Right now, pro drivers live for race day. But for small business owners, every day is race day. That's why going Pro with Lenovo Pro matters one on one advice, IT solutions and customized hardware powered by Intel Core Ultra processors. Keep your business on the right track. Business goes pro with Lenovo Pro. Sign up for [e-mail] Pro Lenovo Lenovo Ah, greetings from my bath festive friends. The holidays are overwhelming, but I'm tackling this season with PayPal and making the most of my my money. Getting 5% cash back when I pay in 4. No fees, no interest. I used it to get this portable spa with jets. Now the bubbles can cling to my sculpted but pruny body. Make the most of your money this holiday with PayPal. Save the offer in the app ends 1231. See paypal.com promoterms Points can be redeemed for cash and more. Paying for subject to terms and approval. PayPal Inc. And MLS 910457 this podcast.

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