Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode: BI Weekend: GM, Starbucks, UPS Earnings
Date: January 31, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu & Paul Sweeney

Overview

In this episode, Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney of Bloomberg Intelligence dissect significant business stories and earnings results impacting Wall Street and global markets. The episode provides in-depth research-driven analysis of major companies including General Motors, Tesla, Nvidia, Starbucks, AT&T, UPS, and a discussion on Yale’s faltering endowment model. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts and industry experts provide insights into sector trends, company strategies, and the factors shaping various industries.

Key Segments & Insights

1. General Motors (GM) Earnings & Auto Sector Trends

(02:11 – 08:54)
Guest: Steve Mann, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Autos & Industrials Analyst

• GM’s Portfolio: The GM lineup is still overwhelmingly internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, with EVs making up just 10-15% of the portfolio.
  • “ICE engine is much greater... you're talking about like 85, 90% ICE versus 10, 15% EVs.” – Steve Mann [02:33]
• EV Transition Strategy: GM is maintaining its EV portfolio but focusing on profitable gas vehicle sales, especially with relaxed government mandates easing the urgency to transition.
  • “Maintain whatever they can do with EVs and really push the ICE vehicles, maintain.” – Steve Mann [03:22]
• Hybrid Technologies: Currently not a core focus for GM due to high investment required and limited payoff.
  • “It's going to be a huge sinkhole for them if they invest in that technology today. So let's, let's not do that.” – Steve Mann [03:22]
• Gas Prices Impact: If gas prices rise, Japanese automakers (Toyota, Honda), with robust hybrid portfolios, stand to gain.
  • “If gas prices do go up, actually benefits the Japanese companies like Toyota and Honda where they have a full suite of hybrid vehicles that actually consumer love.” – Steve Mann [04:50]
• Tesla’s Challenge: With weak near-term sales, attention is on autonomous/RoboTaxi initiatives for future growth.
  • “Investors are actually looking... into, you know, what is Elon Musk going to talk about in their next earnings calls on the Robotaxi?” – Steve Mann [05:44]
• Charging Network: Tesla’s Supercharger network is a small but expanding revenue stream, being licensed to other brands.
  • “Selling these supercharging business and the revenues from the charging, it's still really, really small. I would say around 10%, maybe less.” – Steve Mann [07:10]
• Government Incentives: Crucial for accelerating EV adoption; Europe and China cited as models.

2. Airline & Aerospace Industry Updates

(09:01 – 13:55)
Guest: Sid Philipp, Bloomberg Chief Correspondent for Global Aviation

• American Airlines & JetBlue:
  • American targets premium market segment to drive revenue growth.
  • JetBlue sees a difficult near-term outlook but long-term free cash flow by 2027.
• Low-Cost Carriers:
  • Ultra-low-cost airlines are struggling with cost pressures and intense competition.
  • Many, like Spirit, try to differentiate with added amenities and pseudo-premium features.
• Boeing’s Recovery:
  • Company is not fully back but making progress, bolstered by strong cash from selling a subsidiary and ramped-up aircraft production.
  • “Boeing is on the road to recovery. They're still not there yet, but they are, they are recovering.” – Sid Philipp [12:59]
  • Production target: up to 42 737 Max jets/month; goal is $10B in free cash flow.

3. Nvidia’s $2 Billion Investment in CoreWeave

(16:28 – 20:00)
Guest: Anuragrana, Bloomberg Intelligence Tech Analyst

• Nvidia-CoreWeave Synergy: Nvidia’s investment in cloud player CoreWeave supports their ecosystem, expands customer reach, and helps fund CoreWeave’s growth.
  • “Nvidia is creating the chips and CoreWeave is helping them sell the computing using those chips... Nvidia isn't giving them money straight away but is basically saying we have confidence in this company.” – Anuragrana [16:47]
• Revenue Backlog: CoreWeave has $50B in contracted revenues but must rapidly build out new data centers.
• Challenges: Main hurdles are securing land, power, and especially capital (cost of capital has dropped from 10% pre-IPO to 8% post-IPO).
• Cloud Providers'” AI Chips: Microsoft and other hyperscalers develop in-house AI chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, mitigate costs, and customize for their own workloads.
  • “For training they’ll still use the more powerful Nvidia chips, but for… running a copilot, they could get around and use less powerful chips. And if they do that, they actually save a lot of money.” – Anuragrana [19:12]

4. Starbucks: Turnaround & Growth

(20:03 – 23:26)
Guest: Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Restaurant & Food Service Analyst

• Performance: Global same-store sales up 4%, US and China both showing strength.
• Turnaround Focus:
  • Operational improvements (faster, friendlier service) driving increased customer frequency.
  • Menu innovation, e.g., “protein cold foam,” resonates with customers.
  • Improved marketing boosts growth.
• Cost Controls: $2B in annual cost reductions targeted over 1-2 years; labor investments have narrowed margins but are now under review.
  • “They've identified $2 billion in annual costs that they want to get after over the next one to two years.” – Michael Halen [21:30]
• Competitive Landscape: Intense competition from upstart chains (e.g., Dutch Bros, Seven Brew) and premium independents, driving Starbucks toward more health-conscious, innovative offerings.

5. AT&T: Telecom Competition & Strategy

(23:30 – 29:03)
Guest: John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Telecom Analyst

• Strong Results: Q4 revenue and profit exceeded expectations due to growth in multi-service subscriber base.
• Strategic Position: AT&T leads in fiber deployment; acquisition of Lumen’s fiber assets to further strengthen the position.
  • “They’re the fiber leader and they’re about to buy Lumen’s fiber business and add another million fiber subscribers there.” – John Butler [23:54]
• CapEx and Infrastructure: 2026 spending focuses on fiber and 5G network expansion; plans to lower capital intensity post-buildout to free cash for dividends and buybacks.
• Competitive Pressure: Wireless market likely to heat up with new CEOs at rivals; sentiment has weighed on stock.
  • “Sentiment has been pushed around... as these new CEOs look to make their mark.” – John Butler [26:07]
• Cable vs. Fiber: Cable companies are falling behind technologically; fiber seen as a superior broadband offering.
• iPhone Sales: AT&T “over-indexes” to iPhone users but does not expect the rumored foldable iPhone to move the needle significantly.

6. UPS: Shrinking for Profitability

(31:47 – 36:45)
Guest: Thomas Black, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist

• Job Cuts & Strategy: UPS will cut 30,000 jobs in 2026, continuing a strategy of shrinking less profitable parts of its business (notably Amazon deliveries) and automating operations to boost margins.
  • “UPS continues to shrink to become more profitable. That's the big takeaway there.” – Thomas Black [32:09]
• Timeline: The restructuring is expected to finish this year, after which UPS plans to return to growth as a leaner, more efficient company.
  • “After this year... we'll be a leaner company and ready to grow. So it's going to be a little bit painful this year.” – Thomas Black [32:41]
• Automation: New automated facilities are 28% more efficient; automation is a key driver in workforce reduction rather than AI per se.
  • “Those automated buildings are 28% more efficient than the older buildings.” – Thomas Black [34:59]
• Competition: As UPS trims low-margin business, Amazon strengthens its own logistics arm, particularly in urban areas; smaller gig-driven delivery firms are proliferating.

7. Yale’s Struggling Endowment Model

(36:49 – 44:08)
Guest: Janet Loren, Bloomberg Higher Education Finance Reporter

• Endowment Model Under Strain: Yale and peers are locked into significant private equity investments with high illiquidity at a time when public markets have outperformed and schools need cash for new taxes and expenses.
  • “Now, higher interest rates, fewer exits, you've got a huge amount of money locked up in private equity, in some cases 40%.” – Janet Loren [37:27]
• Endowment Tax: White House has imposed an 8% tax on net investment returns, forcing schools to sell assets at discounts.
  • “Yale and Harvard each had pegged their bill for the endowment tax... to be about $300 million a year.” – Janet Loren [39:28]
• Asset Allocation: Traditional Yale model favored illiquid alternative assets and minimal US equities; other endowments, like University of California, now favor liquid equities.
• First-Mover Advantage Lost: Oversaturation in private markets has eroded Yale’s competitive edge.
• Active Management: Yale relies on long-tenured fund managers, emphasizing a “fund of funds” approach rather than simple index investing.

Notable Quotes

• On ICE vs. EVs at GM:
  “You're talking about like 85, 90% ICE versus 10, 15% EVs.” – Steve Mann [02:33]
• On Tesla’s Focus:
  “Investors are actually looking... into, you know, what is Elon Musk going to talk about in their next earnings calls on the Robotaxi?” – Steve Mann [05:44]
• On Ultra-Low Cost Airlines:
  “Costs for both pilots and cabin crew are hurting the ultra-low cost carriers and the low cost carriers. And that's… this K-shaped recovery that airline executives are talking about.” – Sid Philipp [10:54]
• On Nvidia-CoreWeave Deal:
  “Nvidia is creating the chips and CoreWeave is helping them sell the computing using those chips to different public that's out there.” – Anuragrana [16:47]
• On Starbucks’ Recovery:
  “Turnaround plans are starting to really take a hold right now and, and results really improved, rising, you know, 4% system wide.” – Michael Halen [20:22]
• On AT&T and Fiber:
  “They're the fiber leader and they're about to buy Lumen's fiber business and add another million fiber subscribers there.” – John Butler [23:54]
• On UPS Restructuring:
  “UPS continues to shrink to become more profitable. That's the big takeaway there.” – Thomas Black [32:09]
• On Yale’s Endowment Challenge:
  “Now, higher interest rates, fewer exits, you've got a huge amount of money locked up in private equity.” – Janet Loren [37:27]

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |-------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|-----------------| | 1 | GM Earnings, ICE vs. EV Strategy, Tesla | 02:11 – 08:54 | | 2 | Airlines: American, JetBlue, Low-Cost Carriers | 09:01 – 13:55 | | 3 | Nvidia’s CoreWeave Investment, AI Chips | 16:28 – 20:00 | | 4 | Starbucks Turnaround and Innovation | 20:03 – 23:26 | | 5 | AT&T Earnings, Telecom Competition | 23:30 – 29:03 | | 6 | UPS: Cost-Cutting, Workforce, Industry Automation | 31:47 – 36:45 | | 7 | Yale Endowment Model Falters | 36:49 – 44:08 |

Episode Tone

The episode balances a straightforward, research-driven style with personal anecdotes and accessible analysis. The hosts and analysts candidly address the uncertainties and challenges in each sector, echoing market realities and maintaining an insightful yet conversational tone.

For deeper research and more company/industry analyses, the episode recommends exploring Bloomberg Intelligence via their terminal tools.