Bloomberg Intelligence – BI Weekend: Homebuilder Sentiment, Natural Gas Outlook, Connie Chung (Dec 26, 2025)

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney explores major business stories shaping Wall Street and markets in late 2025 and early 2026. The hosts dive into challenges facing US homebuilders, retail trends in consumer hardlines, the bullish outlook for US natural gas, the complexities behind energy grid management with Exelon, Walmart’s transformation under Doug McMillan, and the evolving media landscape through an in-depth interview with journalist Connie Chung. The episode blends real-time data insights from Bloomberg Intelligence analysts with expert commentary and thoughtful conversation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Homebuilder Sentiment and Market Challenges

Guest: Drew Redding (Bloomberg Intelligence US Homebuilding Analyst)
Segment Start: 03:06

• Persistent Challenges for Builders
  Despite expectations that lower interest rates might revive the sector, 2026 remains challenging due to slowing revenue growth, high borrowing costs, and labor shortages.

  • Quote (03:36):
    "We actually think that 2026 is going to be another challenging year from a fundamental perspective for the builders...revenue and margins are going to be down this year." – Drew Redding

• Backlog and Inventory Issues
  Builders start the year with order backlogs down 10-40%, translating into weaker revenues in coming months. To move inventory—especially high in the South and West—builders are reducing prices and offering more incentives, which pressures profit margins.

• Existing vs. New Home Sales
  Existing home sales remain about 20% below normalized levels, with some improvement as rates drop. New builds comprise just 15% of home transactions.

• Tariffs and Regional Divergence
  Tariffs haven’t hit big builders yet but could add up to $10,000 per home in costs for smaller players in 2026. Sharpest pricing weakness lies in overbuilt Southern and Western states; price stability endures in the Midwest and Northeast.

• The “Shortage” Debate
  Affordability—rather than housing supply—is the real crisis, especially at the lower end. Home prices are up over 50% since 2019.

  • Quote (07:47): "The shortage, so-called shortage, is probably more at lower price points...it's an affordability problem that's holding things back." – Drew Redding

2. Retail: Consumer Hardlines Outlook 2026

Guest: Lindsay Dutch (BI Consumer Hardlines Senior Analyst)
Segment Start: 09:19

• Resilient High-Income Shoppers
  Demand remains healthy, especially for premium/innovative products at retailers like Best Buy, Ulta Beauty, Williams Sonoma, and Dick’s Sporting Goods.

  • Quote (09:30): "Results have largely been better than expected and a lot of these retailers are tracking to the upper half of their guidance because the consumer has stayed pretty resilient." – Lindsey Dutch

• "Newness" Drives Engagement
  Innovation pipelines slowed during COVID-19 but rebounded in 2025—new product offerings are fueling both transaction and ticket growth.

• Promotion and Brick-and-Mortar Trends
  Promotions remained flat in 2025 vs. 2024; no big increase forecast for 2026, unless demand spikes. Retailers are ramping up physical store expansion, in part due to Gen Z’s preference for in-person shopping.

  • Quote (12:57): "In-store shopping is definitely back and just meeting the consumer where they are...brick and mortar as a whole, we are seeing more openings than closings and that has been a trend for the past couple of years." – Lindsey Dutch

• Category Insights: Beauty
  Ulta Beauty is elevating its assortment and leveraging services like salons and wellness to drive growth; fragrance and skincare are strongest for 2026.

3. US Natural Gas & Oil Sector: 2026 Outlook

Guest: Vincent Piazza (BI Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Segment Start: 17:37

• Bullish on Nat Gas vs. Oil
  Three drivers for natural gas in 2026: structural demand from exports (LNG, pipeline to Mexico), robust cash flow yields, and the advent of sector consolidation/M&A.

  • Quote (18:07): "We are definitely more constructive on natural gas...Structural demand growth, robust free cash flow yields, and consolidation are key." – Vincent Piazza

• Key Market Moves
  The creation of Expand Energy (Chesapeake + Southwestern merger) signals more large M&A ahead. Tightening balances in gas are helped by oil producers cutting back (less associated gas), making reduced oil production actually bullish for gas.

  • Quote (20:14): "As you produce less liquids, so less crude, you also produce fewer molecules of what's called associated gas...that's great for natural gas guys because that means balances tighten." – Vincent Piazza

• Top Players
  Expand and EQT are flagged as top natural gas producers for 2026 due to their scale and positioning.

• OPEC & Oil's New Era
  OPEC still sets global oil supply, but focus for investors is on capital discipline and free cash flow returned to shareholders—not more production.

4. Powering the Grid and Data Center Demand

Guest: Calvin Butler (CEO, Exelon Corporation)
Segment Start: 23:33

• Data Center Boom and Infrastructure
  Exelon is critical to powering the growth of US data centers—working to speed up connections and ensure affordability for all customers.

  • Quote (23:48): "We always say that the energy sector is 5% of the GDP, but we power the next 95." – Calvin Butler

• Balancing Growth and Affordability
  New mechanisms, like transmission security agreements, shift cost risk from residential customers to large-scale data center developers.

  • Quote (25:56): "We've come up with...a rather innovative solution...so anytime they do not meet 80% of that load projection...we draw down from that deposit. It protects other customers on the system." – Calvin Butler

• Nuclear’s Comeback
  Strong belief in nuclear as critical baseload generation, with support for government investments to bring shuttered reactors back online.

5. Walmart’s Reputation Reboot: CEO Doug McMillan’s Legacy

Guest: Beth Cowett (Bloomberg Opinion Columnist)
Segment Start: 33:03

• From Villain to Model Employer
  Walmart, once lambasted for low wages and adverse community impact, invested $2.7 billion in higher pay, training, and internal career paths—producing dramatically better retention and promoting leadership from within.

  • Quote (33:58): "Rather than just ignore the bad press...Doug McMillan decided, we're going to invest in our people...$2.7 billion over a couple of years. And we now know this really paid off." – Beth Cowett

• Return on Investment—For Workers and Shareholders
  Market cap tripled over a decade; employee retention up 10%; 75% of management now promoted from within.

  • Quote (36:15): "Wall Street hated this plan...Now, I think the market cap has tripled. The stock has returned more than 400%." – Beth Cowett

• On AI and Workforce
  Walmart embraces AI for efficiency, but unlike many peers, refuses to use it as justification for layoffs—instead focusing on retraining and internal mobility.

6. Media in Crisis: Interview with Connie Chung

Guest: Connie Chung, legendary journalist and memoirist
Segment Start: 38:06

• Is Journalism a Public Good?
  Connie Chung reminisces about a pre-corporate network era, when news divisions were “autonomous” and “for the public good”—contrasting with today's profit-driven model.

  • Quote (38:30): "We lost all of our obligation to be objective and be truthful. And all they wanted was money." – Connie Chung

• Bias and the Decline of Objectivity
  Heightened media bias alarms Chung, who finds commentary in place of reporting even among anchors.

  • Quote (40:08): "Maybe I'm horrified. Horrified with anyone who says on television who purports to be an anchor or a news reporter say, 'I think'. I don't care what you think. All I want is the facts." – Connie Chung

• AI in the Newsroom: A Dire Warning
  Chung expresses deep misgivings about AI-generated news, emphasizing the lack of fact-checking and the existential threat to journalistic integrity.

  • Quote (41:00): "It's all fake news and we cannot depend on it...I fear that AI would not be fact checked. We can't depend on it." – Connie Chung

• Diversity in Decline
  Chung links her own breakthrough to civil rights-era EEOC actions and decries the backsliding of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) efforts.

  • Quote (42:33): "I would not have had a career had it not been for the 1964 Civil Rights law...We are not seeing that [parity]...I'm hoping that we the people will not stand for it." – Connie Chung

• Women and Minorities in Newsrooms: Still Facing Barriers
  Despite high-profile milestones, women and minorities continue to face systemic setbacks.

Memorable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• On Homebuilders:

  • "The shortage...is probably more at lower price points...it's an affordability problem." – Drew Redding (07:47)

• On Retail Expansion:

  • "In-store shopping is definitely back... we're seeing more openings than closings..." – Lindsey Dutch (12:57)

• On Natural Gas M&A:

  • "The biggest central theme for us in 2026 is concentration via consolidation." – Vincent Piazza (18:07)

• On Data Center Demand:

  • "We always say that the energy sector is 5% of the GDP, but we power the next 95." – Calvin Butler (23:48)

• On Walmart's Culture Shift:

  • "There was now a path for people who started at Walmart to move up the ranks and that was really important to attracting more ambitious employees." – Beth Cowett (34:32)

• On the Media Landscape:

  • "We lost all of our obligation to be objective and be truthful. And all they wanted was money." – Connie Chung (38:30)

• On AI in Journalism:

  • "It's all fake news and we cannot depend on it...AI has no place in news." – Connie Chung (41:00)

Noteworthy Segment Timestamps

• [03:06] – Homebuilder sentiment in 2026, with Drew Redding
• [09:19] – Consumer hardlines retail outlook, with Lindsey Dutch
• [17:37] – Natural gas and oil outlook 2026, with Vincent Piazza
• [23:33] – Challenges of powering the energy grid for data centers, with Calvin Butler
• [33:03] – Walmart’s rehabilitation under Doug McMillan, with Beth Cowett
• [38:06] – Connie Chung on journalism, AI, and newsroom diversity

Conclusion

This Bloomberg Intelligence episode offers broad, data-driven coverage of industry trends, structural challenges, and leadership in sectors ranging from housing and retail to energy and media. Notable guests like Connie Chung and industry analysts provide context and firsthand perspective on both macro trends and the urgent debates of our era, from affordability crises and corporate strategy to AI’s role in society. The episode is both insightful and accessible for listeners interested in the intersection of markets, business strategy, and public policy.