Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast: BI Weekend – Luxury, Railroad, and Machinery 2026 Outlook

Date: January 2, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney
Guests: Deb Akin, Jonathan Goldstein, Lee Klaskow, John Butler, Nathan Naidu, Christopher Chiolino, Bill Keenan

Episode Overview

This episode offers a comprehensive market outlook for 2026, focusing on key sectors: luxury goods, North American railroads, telecoms & satellites, cloud gaming, and U.S. machinery. Additionally, it explores the intersection of finance and storytelling with a discussion about the new Wall Street film "Bull Run." The hosts and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts discuss growth prospects, sector-specific headwinds like tariffs and technological shifts, and the evolving role of artificial intelligence and globalization.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Luxury Goods Outlook for 2026

Guest: Deb Akin – Bloomberg Intelligence Luxury Goods Analyst
Timestamps: 02:12–07:51

• 2025 Performance Recap & Green Shoots in China

  • The sector ended 2025 with 3–4% growth, led by the U.S. and Middle East, but dragged by weak demand in China in the year’s first half.
  • Signs of recovery emerged late, with two-thirds of major luxury companies showing growth in China by Q3.

    “We’re calling green shoots into the end of the year.” – Deb Akin (02:59)

• Tariff Overhangs

  • Overall impact has lessened; leading brands have absorbed extra costs by passing on 6–7% price increases, particularly in the U.S.
  • Anticipated price increases for 2026 are smaller (2–3%), which could ease consumer concerns.

• Chinese Consumer Travel & Spending

  • Survey suggests Chinese consumers are preparing to travel more to Europe, which may bode well for luxury spending abroad.
  • Political tensions dampen travel to Japan, but destinations like Korea, Singapore, and Australia see increased Chinese tourism.

• Supply Chain Operations

  • Heritage luxury brands primarily manufacture in Europe, better weathering tariffs compared to entry-level brands dependent on Asian production.

• Handbags as Investment Assets

  • High-end bags, notably Hermès, retain or increase value and are perceived as investments.
  • The mid-market sector (e.g., Tapestry, Coach) also performed well, while ultra-high-end remained resilient.

    "If you bought at Hermès, you have a just as good or a better correlation than if you’d have held gold.” – Deb Akin (06:57)

2. Sports Investments & Cricket in the UK

Guest: Jonathan Goldstein – Co-founder and CEO, Caine International, Chelsea FC director
Timestamps: 08:05–13:15

• Chelsea FC Investment & Achievements

  • Proud of the club’s global expansion and the women’s team’s continued dominance.

• Valuations & Alternative Sports Investments

  • Rise in U.S. and UK sports franchise values pushes investors to seek opportunities in emerging markets/sports, such as cricket.

  • Cricket’s “The Hundred” competition in the UK is modeled on India’s IPL, offering promising growth and high broadcast rights values.

    “It’s a great window of the summer in the UK… you have a good base.” – Jonathan Goldstein (10:41) “You can’t just pick up a sport and put it in each country unless there is an underlying desire…there’s so much competition in the U.S.” – Jonathan Goldstein (12:05)

• Cricket’s U.S. Future

  • While local cricket communities are vibrant (notably in NY), cultural barriers and entrenched major leagues limit mainstream breakthrough.

3. 2026 Outlook: North American Railroads

Guest: Lee Klaskow – Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Transport Analyst
Timestamps: 15:24–20:12

• Earnings & Demand Projections

  • Earnings growth expected to accelerate to high single digits in 2026, but demand outlook remains tepid—particularly due to tariff uncertainty and "stop and go" shipping patterns.
  • CSX and Canadian Pacific/Kansas City are positioned to outperform in volume growth; Norfolk Southern projected as flat.

• Tariff Effects

  • Impact varies: Canadian rails hit on metals, autos, forest products; U.S. rails (e.g., Union Pacific) face challenges via import volatility.

    “It’s really creating a level of uncertainty among shippers…not allowing the rails to operate as fluid as they possibly can.” – Lee Klaskow (17:30)

• M&A Landscape

  • The proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger faces a high regulatory bar; only a 40–45% chance of approval.
  • Regulatory focus is on competition enhancement and public benefit, with a ruling likely in early 2027.

4. 2026 Telecom & Satellite Sector

Guest: John Butler – Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Telecom Analyst
Timestamps: 20:24–24:42

• Revenue & Competitive Dynamics

  • Wireless pricing promotions likely to intensify as AT&T and Verizon’s new CEOs seek to restore growth, especially at Verizon.

  • Fixed wireless broadband is a key area of subscriber growth.

    “The bullets are really flying in wireless right now…Dan Schulman at Verizon…is very focused on volume.” – John Butler (20:39)

• Satellite Partnerships & Coverage Expansion

  • Starlink (T-Mobile) and AST SpaceMobile (AT&T, Verizon) are partnering with telecoms to provide satellite-based connectivity, aiming for near-universal coverage.

    "It's almost like cell sites in space at this point." – John Butler (22:53)

• 6G Roadmap

  • 6G standards are in early development, with potential arrival around 2030; focus for now remains on mid-cycle 5G improvements.

5. Cloud Gaming & AI Acceleration

Guest: Nathan Naidu – Bloomberg Intelligence, Technology Research Analyst
Timestamps: 24:57–27:48

• Decline of Consoles & Rise of Mobile

  • Console gaming will persist as a niche; cloud infrastructure and mobile devices will drive mainstream growth.

  • Gen Alpha and Z prefer mobile gaming due to convenience; they spend significant daily screen time gaming.

    “...why not? …If they can have the same experience on a mobile device, why not, right?” – Nathan Naidu (25:22)

• Technological Challenges & Outlook

  • Latency, dictated by proximity to cell towers and data centers, is the key pain point; improving global 5G and 4G coverage is reducing this gap.
  • Mobile gaming’s share of user attention and spending power will only grow over the decade.

6. US Machinery Sector 2026 Outlook

Guest: Christopher Chiolino – Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior US Machinery Analyst
Timestamps: 29:23–34:44

• Sector at an Inflection Point

  • After years of downturn, machinery earnings are poised for a rebound, driven by power generation, infrastructure, and reshoring investments.

  • The most positive outlook is for construction equipment; ag machinery remains challenged by weak farm fundamentals and export uncertainty.

    "We believe that the U.S. machinery earnings are likely approaching a inflection point in 2026..." – Christopher Chiolino (29:39)

• Caterpillar’s (CAT) Bull Run

  • Optimism remains for CAT and Cummins due to their exposure to the booming power generation market and data center infrastructure.
  • Caterpillar’s backlog is at record levels, powered by expanding large engine capacity.

• Agricultural Equipment Outlook

  • 2026 could mark the trough for ag machinery, with volumes at a 40+ year low.

  • Export market weakness, especially in China purchases, keeps the outlook cautious.

    “Crop prices are still low…until we get tangible progress on China executing on purchase orders, I think farmers are just going to be hesitant to go out and spend on equipment.” – Christopher Chiolino (33:25)

7. Wall Street Storytelling: ‘Bull Run’ Film

Guest: Bill Keenan – Writer and Producer
Timestamps: 34:52–41:40

• Film Summary

  • “Bull Run” is based on Keenan’s tongue-in-cheek memoir of his time as an outsider in investment banking—a world he portrays as high-pressure and comically absurd rather than solely corrupt.

    “It’s not so much about the corruption as it is about just observing the absurdity that goes on in this world.” – Bill Keenan (35:46)

• Banking Reality vs. AI Future

  • Much of entry-level banking work is rote and could be outsourced or automated (AI), but those early years create bonding experiences.

    “Do I need to be sitting at the printer at 2:00 in the morning on a Tuesday? I mean, can’t AI do this for me?” – Paul Sweeney (40:08) “To have that experience as a human, to pay your dues, there’s huge value to that." – Bill Keenan (40:11)

• Film Production Challenges

  • Filmed during the pandemic in one location, requiring creative adaptation of an experience that’s largely internal and solitary into something visually compelling.

Notable Quotes

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:59 | Deb Akin | "We’re calling green shoots into the end of the year." | | 06:57 | Deb Akin | "If you bought at Hermès, you have a just as good or a better correlation than if you’d have held gold." | | 10:41 | Jonathan Goldstein | "It’s a great window of the summer in the UK… you have a good base." | | 12:05 | Jonathan Goldstein | "There’s so much competition in the U.S. for all the major sports...I think cricket will find itself even harder." | | 17:30 | Lee Klaskow | "It’s really creating a level of uncertainty among shippers…not allowing the rails to operate as fluid as they possibly can." | | 20:39 | John Butler | "The bullets are really flying in wireless right now…Dan Schulman at Verizon…is very focused on volume." | | 22:53 | John Butler | "It's almost like cell sites in space at this point." | | 25:22 | Nathan Naidu | "...why not? …If they can have the same experience on a mobile device, why not, right?" | | 29:39 | Christopher Chiolino | "We believe that the U.S. machinery earnings are likely approaching a inflection point in 2026..." | | 33:25 | Christopher Chiolino | “Crop prices are still low…until we get tangible progress on China executing on purchase orders, I think farmers are just going to be hesitant to go out and spend on equipment.” | | 35:46 | Bill Keenan | "It’s not so much about the corruption as it is about just observing the absurdity that goes on in this world." | | 40:08 | Paul Sweeney | “Do I need to be sitting at the printer at 2:00 in the morning on a Tuesday? I mean, can’t AI do this for me?” | | 40:11 | Bill Keenan | “To have that experience as a human, to pay your dues, there’s huge value to that." |

Timestamps Index

• Luxury Goods: 02:12–07:51
• Sports Investments/Cricket: 08:05–13:15
• Railroads: 15:24–20:12
• Telecoms & Satellites: 20:24–24:42
• Cloud Gaming: 24:57–27:48
• Machinery: 29:23–34:44
• Wall Street Film: 34:52–41:40

Tone & Style

The episode maintains a conversational, data-driven style with moments of humor and candor, especially in the film segment. Analysts deliver deep dives into each sector, providing actionable intelligence with a global perspective and a pragmatic view of both risks and opportunities ahead.

This summary captures the essential highlights and expert analysis of the original episode, providing a comprehensive guide for listeners and non-listeners alike.