BI Weekend: Nike Turnaround, Airlines Outlook, AWS Growth

Summary

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Bloomberg Intelligence

Episode: BI Weekend: Nike Turnaround, Airlines Outlook, AWS Growth
Date: January 9, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu & Paul Sweeney

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Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Intelligence explores pivotal market trends and company outlooks across multiple sectors. The hosts, Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney, leverage research and insights from Bloomberg Intelligence analysts and special guests. Featured topics include the ongoing turnaround at Nike, the evolving sports betting and prediction markets landscape, the state and outlook for North American airlines, competition between cruise lines and theme parks, and the renewed growth prospects of Amazon Web Services (AWS) driven by AI adoption. The episode also features a special interview with the creators of HBO's Industry.

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Key Segments and Discussion Points

1. HBO’s "Industry": Inside the World of Finance Drama

Guests: Mickey Down & Conrad Kay (Co-creators, Executive Producers, Writers)
Timestamps: 03:01–09:10

Main Insights

• Season 4 Theme: Examines the transformation of characters who now wield power in finance and how this changes them.
• Industry Reflections: The show mirrors the push toward a more technocratic finance industry, with fewer liberal arts backgrounds making it in.
• Broader Focus: While banking is central, underlying themes revolve around power, class, and the intersection of capitalism with politics and media.
• Audience Feedback: "All the time… it’s really become a bit of a recruitment tool. You know, people are saying that it’s the reason they got into Wall Street." (Mickey Down, 08:43)
• Casting Choices: Inclusion of American actors in British settings helps American audiences access the story and reflects the global nature of finance.
• Industry Shifts: The team notes contraction in original TV programming and the importance of timing during the “gold rush” of high-content production.
• Notable Moment: Paul Sweeney recounts shared experience: "You haven't had a Wall street career until you’ve been fired from Wall Street—100%." (Paul Sweeney, 04:08)

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2. Sports Betting and Prediction Markets

Guest: Brian Egger (Senior Gaming & Lodging Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 09:19–14:22

Key Points

• New Products: DraftKings and FanDuel are expanding with 'prediction market’ apps to compete with platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood, especially in states lacking legalized sportsbooks.
• Market Size & Challenges: The prediction market is substantial, but regulatory issues persist—especially the state vs. federal regulatory divide (CFTC vs. state gaming commissions).
• Consumer Base: Larger states without sports betting (e.g., Texas, California) are prime targets. There’s confusion over regulation and risk of overlap with Native American gaming rights.
• Social Concerns: Notable youth and college-aged engagement raises concerns:
  • "I see kids, high school kids having conversations in detail showing a level of expertise which really blows me away. Kids, high school kids - and I don’t know, it just doesn’t feel right." (Paul Sweeney, 13:34)
• Industry Outlook: Prediction markets are both a risk and opportunity for established sportsbook providers.

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3. Nike’s North American Turnaround and China Struggles

Guest: Poonam Goyal (Senior US E-Commerce & Retail Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 17:04–22:34

Highlights

• North America Recovery: Improvement due to better inventory management; US business expected to be clean within 3–6 months.
• China’s Challenge:
  • Discounting and aged inventory have hurt brand perception, making Nike seem like an off-price brand.
  • "I think what they will do now… is they will clean out that aged inventory. But as we know, that will take time… it takes anywhere from 12 to 18 months." (Poonam Goyal, 18:15)
• Product Strategy: Focused investment in performance and running categories differentiates Nike from lifestyle-oriented Adidas.
• Tariffs & Margins:
  • Tariffs remain a headwind; Nike is increasing prices and renegotiating supplier terms.
  • Margin impacts expected in 2026, with recovery tied to full-price sales and China stabilization.
    • "2026…is not a margin story for Nike. It’s a top line story. I think 2027 is where we can start to talk about margin expansion." (Poonam Goyal, 20:35)
• Investor Patience: CEO Elliott Hill may need another 6–12 months to show tangible results in China.

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4. North American Airlines Outlook for 2026

Guest: George Ferguson (Senior Aerospace, Defense, and Airlines Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 22:43–29:04

Key Insights

• Capacity and Premiumization:
  • Full-service carriers (United, Delta, American) will grow seats 3–4% in H1 2026; focus is on premium seats.
  • Low-cost carriers (e.g., Spirit) are cutting capacity amid weak seat prices.
  • "Everybody’s got a plan for bringing more premium seats to the marketplace… We’ll get offsides on premium before it’s all done." (George Ferguson, 24:40)
• Wage Pressure:
  • Pilot salaries have surged (recent contracts up to 20% increases), putting pressure on airline margins.
  • "The pilots are still decently paid... They got these 20% increases in the last couple contracts." (George Ferguson, 25:54)
• Jet Fuel Costs: While jet fuel prices fell in 2025 and could provide some tailwind, most airlines no longer hedge fuel, preferring to adjust fares as needed.
• Industry Risks: Extra-premium capacity may eventually pressure fares, cost management remains challenging.

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5. Cruise Lines Vs. Theme Parks

Guest: Jodi Lurie (Credit Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 31:50–38:14

Discussion Points

• Spending Patterns:
  • Cruise customers tend to pre-book and commit to ancillary packages (drinks, excursions), aiding cruise line cash flow.
  • Theme parks attract younger, lower-income, and more domestic clientele. Spend per visit can lag due to last-minute booking and less pre-purchase.
    • "When you get on the boat, it’s more expensive... The ones that I definitely want to do, they also book the drink packages..." (Jodi Lurie, 33:01)
• Cost Structure:
  • Both industries have high capex requirements—maintenance and periodic new attractions or ships.
  • Theme parks, especially regional ones, face challenges from less destination-based traffic and reliance on volume.
• Customer Demographics:
  • Cruises: Historically older Americans, but now more diverse—"It’s really not specifically the older [customer base]." (Jodi Lurie, 38:14)
  • Theme parks: More domestic, especially for brands like Six Flags.

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6. Amazon Web Services (AWS) and AI Growth

Guest: Anurag Rana (Technology Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 38:17–43:12

Major Insights

• AI Adoption:
  • AWS expected to see sales grow by 22.5% in 2026, outpacing consensus estimates, driven by wider enterprise AI adoption and new data center capacity.
  • "This is the year where we think that thing kicks off… the growth rate for AWS improves successively every quarter going into the end of the year." (Anurag Rana, 39:41)
• Competitive Landscape:
  • AWS has lagged in AI narrative compared to Microsoft (Azure/OpenAI) but has invested in Anthropic and will benefit from enterprise deployments.
• Valuation Perspective: With the AI story shifting to enterprise, AWS’s exponential growth is expected to be recognized, making Amazon stock attractively valued for long-term investors.
  • "So far the narrative has only been about OpenAI and chat, GPT and Microso. I think that narrative starts to change this year with more and more enterprise adoption." (Anurag Rana, 42:43)

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Notable Quotes

• On Power and Corruption in Finance:

  • "Now they have power. What do they decide to do with it and how does it corrupt them, how does it mutate them?"
    — Mickey Down, 03:25

• On Prediction Markets Regulation:

  • "Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC. So it’s state versus federal. And that’s been the argument of Kalshi: that we’re a financial futures contract. We’re not sports betting. We are federally regulated."
    — Brian Egger, 11:51

• On Nike’s China Troubles:

  • "What’s been happening in China is that Nike has been selling at a discount to clear inventory as the vicious cycle of weaker sales has led to more discounting."
    — Poonam Goyal, 18:15

• On Airlines' Premium Seat Race:

  • "Everybody has a plan for how to get more premium in their airplane... we’ll get offsides on premium before it’s all done."
    — George Ferguson, 24:40

• On AWS and the Enterprise AI Wave:

  • "The big part of the AWS story is… as more of their capacity comes online… we think that’s going to help them improve their growth rates."
    — Anurag Rana, 40:59

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment/Topic | Timestamps | |-------------------------------------------|-------------------------| | HBO’s "Industry" Interview | 03:01–09:10 | | Sports Betting/Prediction Markets | 09:19–14:22 | | Nike Turnaround & China Issues | 17:04–22:34 | | North American Airlines Outlook | 22:43–29:04 | | Cruise Lines vs. Theme Parks | 31:50–38:14 | | AWS’s AI Growth Prospects | 38:17–43:12 |

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Tone and Style

The episode maintains an analytical yet conversational feel. Hosts and guests blend industry expertise with approachable dialogue, candidly sharing firsthand experiences (with Wall Street, travel, etc.) and keeping the mood engaging and accessible for market professionals and lay listeners alike.

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This summary captures the vital insights, expert commentary, and strategic outlooks discussed in the show, offering comprehensive value for anyone seeking quick yet thorough understanding of the topics—even without tuning into the episode itself.

Transcript

[Paul Sweeney]

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[Public Advertiser]

That'S odoo.com support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member finra SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures.

[Scarlet Fu]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney.

[Paul Sweeney]

How do you think the Fed is looking at tariffs? The uncertainty of tariffs?

[Scarlet Fu]

Let's take a look at the sectors and how they perform.

[Paul Sweeney]

A lot of investors getting whipsawed every.

[Public Advertiser]

Day by news events, breaking market headlines.

[Scarlet Fu]

And corporate news from across the globe. Could we see a market disruption? A market event?

[Paul Sweeney]

People just too exuberant out there?

[Scarlet Fu]

You see some so called low quality stocks driving this short term rally. Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio, YouTube and Bloomberg.

[Paul Sweeney]

Originals on today's Bloomberg Intelligence show we dig inside the big business stories impacting Wall street in the global markets Each.

[Scarlet Fu]

And every week we provide in depth research and data on some of the 2000 companies and 130 industries our analysts cover worldwide.

[Paul Sweeney]

Today we'll look at why a turnaround at the footwear giant Nike is beginning to take hold in North America.

[Scarlet Fu]

Plus a look at why Amazon cloud sales may get a push from AI in 2026.

[Paul Sweeney]

But first recently on Bloomberg Intelligence, we discussed HBO show industry.

[Scarlet Fu]

Industry is a high stakes drama following young graduates competing for careers in a prestigious London investment bank.

[Paul Sweeney]

Now in season four this year, the bank has folded and some of these junior bankers have become power players in finance, business and politics.

[Scarlet Fu]

For more on the show, we sat down with Mickey down and Conrad Kay, co creators, writers and executive producers of the HBO show industry. We began by asking Mickey down about the theme for season four.

[Mickey Down]

Wow, what a big question. I think the theme of season four is, as you said, you know, these kind of didn't have power and it was about them accruing power. Now they have power. What do they decide to do with it and how does it corrupt them, how does it mutate them? And is there a way out of this institution, this life, this industry?

[Paul Sweeney]

You know, I spent 35 years on Wall street and the many years on the trading desk. You guys get it? I mean, you got it. I don't know how you guys did that. Did you guys work on in the financial services industry before Conrad?

[Mickey Down]

I did, yeah. After I graduated college, I was a, I was a US equity sales guy, Morgan Stanley for three years. And I was famously, when my boss let me go, he said I was the worst salesman he'd ever met on Wall Street. So he was like, go and do something else because you're pretty useless at this.

[Paul Sweeney]

Well, that's a true Wall street career. You haven't had a Wall street career until you've been fired from Wall Street 100%. That's what. And I've been there myself. You guys, what do you, what's the state of the industry in London these days? I mean, how are people, how are the young people feeling in the industry? Because you, you guys reflect that with your show very well.

[Mickey Down]

Well, I think our show is a reflection of almost like 10 years ago when we were in it. And I feel like people like me and Conrad would never be allowed in the industry now. I think it's become a lot more technocratic. We both did art subjects. We're so under qualified, you wouldn't believe it.

[Conrad Kay]

We were, we were.

[Mickey Down]

I know I'm not a great mathematician, but I think you're speaking to a literature graduate and a theologian.

[Paul Sweeney]

Oh, great.

[Mickey Down]

So, like, derivatives, exalted derivatives were not our strong. Only in England is that allowed.

[Scarlet Fu]

So there's no room for liberal arts majors on Global Wall street anymore. And what's apparent is the show has become less about banking and more about wealth and resources and the leveraging of that.

[Odoo Advertiser]

So, sure.

[Scarlet Fu]

Conrad, what are you saying about capitalism and how it interacts with politics, with media?

[Conrad Kay]

I don't know.

[Mickey Down]

I mean, the thing is that as we've written the show, we've realized that more and more we're writing really about the class system in the uk who has power, who doesn't have power, who's born into power, and the sort of relative. Different glass ceilings people face. Like, I think season one was a kind of experiment because they were. The main characters were from such different socioeconomic backgrounds that they were always bumping up against different. Different ceilings. And then in terms of. Like, me and Mickey never set out every season to say something didactic about capitalism. Like, I think the show is. The show has something to say. If you're looking underneath it, it has, like, a very strong subtext. But, like, we set out to make eight hours the most entertaining thing we can. Like 9pm on HBO really means something. Still, all we care about is entertaining an audience.

[Brian Egger]

Really.

[Paul Sweeney]

How is it getting a show on the air these days? There's so many different platforms. It used to be pitched to a handful of networks and hope for the best. Now you can go anywhere on these streaming platforms. How does that impact from the creator's perspective?

[Mickey Down]

Well, I think there's. There are fewer options than there were at least five years ago. I think there's been a massive contraction in the industry. I think it's actually much harder to get something on TV than it was when we started. You know, we were two guys, ex financiers, grandiose term, who were given an opportunity to make something on a relatively small budget by the biggest network, most prestigious network. I just think that wouldn't happen now. I think we were. No, it's an original show. It's. No, it's not IP driven. We don't have any fans to surface. It's not a comic book, that kind of show. It just, you know, they're few and far between now. And there are lots of different streaming platforms and lots of different outlets, but I think actually we're just making a lot less stuff. We were really in the right place at the right time when we started developing the show about 10 years ago because it was the real gold rush of TV in terms of the amount of content getting created. Netflix came in, disrupted the whole, the whole model by flooding, flooding the zone with cash and quantity. And we were just in the right place at the right time somewhere, you.

[Scarlet Fu]

Know, season four is rolling out right when HBO's parent company Warner Brothers is in the middle of a drawn out bidding war. Something that Paul and I have joked about would make a really worthy Sunday night series of its own. Were you ever tempted to draw any parallels between the show and the real life drama that's going on to your corporate parent?

[Mickey Down]

I think another HBO show already did that.

[Odoo Advertiser]

Yeah.

[Mickey Down]

Successful one that won more Emmys than us. We'll leave it to them.

[Odoo Advertiser]

Yeah.

[Scarlet Fu]

But you know, you could have made it really matter, for instance.

[Poonam Goyal]

For sure.

[Conrad Kay]

Surprising.

[Mickey Down]

They don't consult us on any of us. Maybe they should.

[Scarlet Fu]

The other thing that I noticed is that you introduce a lot of new characters this season played by American actors. Kiernan Shipka, formerly of Mad Men. Max Mingala, he's English, but he plays an American character. Why do you put so much of a focus on Americans in London, given that you're both British, I mean, and it takes place in London? It's interesting.

[Mickey Down]

Well, finance is a global industry. I think obviously there's a lot of, you know, international people in finance was my experience working in the financial services industry. And the show was originally conceived as a kind of outsider status show. It was about someone coming into an inside world and, you know, was encapsulated by Harper, who's a black American woman from coming into the uk, which is obviously rigidly class based. And that felt really interesting. And we just like to. I know we like a mishmash of voices. I mean, obviously people complain about the show and his accents and the amount of different accents that are in the show, but we just love. I think you're giving an American audience an access point to the show because as Mickey said, very jargon heavy show. It's loaded with Britishism, British slang, British codes of conduct. We wanted to give Americans a bit of a foothold into what we were trying to do.

[Paul Sweeney]

Just real quickly, who's your audience? Like, what's a typical viewer of your show? I'm drawn to it because I'm a Wall street guy. It's very wide.

[Mickey Down]

It's very wide in terms of demographically, in terms of age. I mean, I'd say it caters to everyone from 18 to 18. Really, really does. My 94 year old grandmother loves it.

[Scarlet Fu]

Do Wall street guys email you guys all the time.

[Mickey Down]

All the time.

[Scarlet Fu]

What's the number one feedback?

[Mickey Down]

You're getting this wrong or am it right? Or you're getting it right? I could do better. Or it's really become a bit of a recruitment tool. You know, people are saying that it's the reason they got into Wall Street.

[Scarlet Fu]

Oh my gosh.

[Mickey Down]

Exactly what I want.

[Paul Sweeney]

My mine was Wall street with Michael Douglas, Charlie Sheen. That was my as well. Our thanks to Mickey down and Conrad K, co creators, writers and executive producers of the HBO show industry.

[Scarlet Fu]

We move next to the world of sports. With the super bowl less than five weeks away, the run up to the big game on February 8th could be a key window for sports betting companies like DraftKings and FanDuel.

[Paul Sweeney]

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, this time period could allow the companies to expand distribution of the new prediction markets apps available in 17 states.

[Scarlet Fu]

We're joined by Brian Egger, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior gaming and lodging analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked Brian about how DraftKings and FanDuel have been positioning themselves for the NFL playoffs.

[Brian Egger]

Yeah, so DraftKings and FanDuel, among other things, recently rolled out these prediction market apps which are separate from their sportsbooks. And this is really to compete more head on against Kalshi and Robinhood and other of these financial firms that offer these event contracts in a number of states.

[Paul Sweeney]

How big is I'm hearing more and more about this prediction market market. How big is this thing?

[Brian Egger]

I mean this is potentially really large. I don't have numbers in front of me. But the key thing is that Kalsha and Robinhood are trying to do this in all 50 states. There are about a dozen states that have either told them cease and desist because they effectively are engaging in illegal sports betting according to the states or a couple states have warned DraftKings, FanDuel don't do the same thing if you've got a sportsbook wise. So what DraftKings and FanDuel did was try to go into states with this product where they don't operate sports books. They can do prediction markets on politics or entertainment events in any state. But the real issue is with respect to sports, that's where they limit themselves.

[Scarlet Fu]

Let me ask you a dumb question and maybe we don't know the answer to this yet. Who is the target audience for a contract and in prediction market setting versus, you know, just a regular parlay or some bet in.

[Brian Egger]

I mean the type of person in terms of the type of area or territory. Think about the fact that you've got mobile sportsbooks in almost 30 states or 30 some odd states, DraftKings fandom, 25 of them. Other states, big states like Texas and California that don't have legal sports books and sports betting, that's a logical market for Kalshee and Robinhood to go in there and say you can do these prediction markets and engage in that. Even though sports betting isn't active and legal in the state, that's really the big.

[Paul Sweeney]

So what would Texas and Florida say about that?

[Brian Egger]

Right. So without going through every state, there are about a dozen states that either specifically told Koshi and polymark or Robinhood, cease and desist, don't do this. A few others have issued letters warning DraftKings and FanDuel do not offer a sports prediction market in a state where you've got a sports bet license. So what FanDuel and DraftKings did is, you know, 17 states for DraftKings, five for FanDuel. They're offering this product in states where they don't have sportsbooks and where sports betting isn't, quote, legal.

[Scarlet Fu]

Who regulates the sports betting markets?

[Brian Egger]

So it's very confusing because the sports books are regulated by state gaming regulatory authorities. The prediction markets are regulated by the cftc. So it's state versus federal. And that's been the argument of Kalshi that we're a financial futures contract. We're not sports betting. We are federally regulated. The states have pushed back and said no, this is a form of effectively analyzing the sports betting. And ultimately I think this heads to the Supreme Court. That's certainly the view of Elliot Steiner, a litigation analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

So what are the casino companies say these days? What do they say? Does that impact their sports book and their sports betting on the margin?

[Brian Egger]

To the extent that MGM and Caesars have mobile products, it's very possible to look into this type of product as well. Again, in those states where sports betting is illegal. So everyone's going to think about it. And the real other other wrinkle is Texas and California. Once they realize we may not have sports betting, what we have, effectively sports bettors, if you believe that's what prediction markets are, we might as well legalize it. And so there's a whole bunch of ramifications to this.

[Scarlet Fu]

What about Native American tribes in states like California, in Connecticut, where do they fit in?

[Brian Egger]

So it's an issue. I mean, in California, although sports betting isn't legal in California, the tribes have themselves challenged and through legally, the likes of Kalshi and Robin Hood, I don't remember which one. So, you know, to the extent that tribes have opportunities to operate sports books, which effectively Florida has a Seminole Tribe operating Hard Rock betting site even though Giraffe Kings fanduel are not involved. So the tribes very much will care to the extent that this is a effectively a competing product as consumers might perceive it.

[Paul Sweeney]

So is betting just going crazy the total dollar amount? I see kids, high school kids having conversations in detail showing a level of expertise which really blows me away. Kids, high school kids and I don't know, it just doesn't feel right.

[Brian Egger]

It's surprising and it also gets very problematic when you have college kids, college games, college players. So but yeah, there's a big national draw to the draw to this and I think the real I don't think DraftKings and fans will get as affected as some might fear in states where they've got a sportsbook, but in states where they can't operate a sportsbook. But Kalshi and Robinhood and polymarket others are offering prediction markets. That's where I think they see risk as well as opportunity.

[Scarlet Fu]

Our thanks to Brian Egger, BI's senior gaming and Lodging Analyst. Coming up, a look at Bloomberg Intelligence's outlook for North American airlines in 2026.

[Paul Sweeney]

You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio providing in depth research and data on 2000 companies and 130 industries.

[Scarlet Fu]

You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via by go on the terminal.

[Paul Sweeney]

I'm Scarlet Fu and I'm Paul Sweeney and this is Bloomberg.

[Scarlet Fu]

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[Public Advertiser]

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[Scarlet Fu]

This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.

[Paul Sweeney]

Move next to Research Bloomberg Intelligence recently put out on the foot giant Nike.

[Scarlet Fu]

According to by Nike's turnaround is beginning to take hold, notably in North America, but China remains a challenge.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more we were joined by Poonam Goyal, Senior US E Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

[Scarlet Fu]

We began by asking Poonam to break down BI's most recent research.

[Poonam Goyal]

Basically we think that Nike turnaround is possible. We see finally some light at the end of the tunnel. Their North America business has improved and is going to improve as they rationalize inventories. The issue still is China and the struggle in China we don't think will end anytime soon. In my mind it's a one to two year turnaround. But that said, if they can get everything else right, which I think they are doing and will get to, I do think that Nike's turnaround is well underway and investors will begin to appreciate it.

[Scarlet Fu]

So let's dig into the struggles in China. I mean, you're talking about a long time frame here for things to turn around. Is it just that Nike has lost its appeal to the Chinese consumer? Is it competition that's really stepped up in the last couple of years?

[Poonam Goyal]

So it's it's a few things. Number one, Nike in the US and other parts of the world is perceived as a more affluent athleisure brand in China? It is not. What's been happening in China is that Nike has been selling at a discount to clear inventory as the vicious cycle of weaker sales has led to more discounting. So it's more seen as an off price rent that needs to change. They know that needs to change. I think that's the first step in solving the problem. And I think what they will do now and what they've said that they do, and I do believe they will because they did it in the US is they will clean out that aged inventory. But as we know, that will take time. In the US alone, in the last year we've seen that it takes anywhere from 12 to 18 months. The US is finally in a place where in the next three to six months they should be clean. So which is why we think it'll take 18 months once they can do that. The new pipeline of products that they're building I do think will resonate with shoppers and it will sell at full price. But once again, it's an 18 to 24 month turnaround in China, in my view.

[Paul Sweeney]

Talk to us about, you know, new product development and new product introduction. Are there certain verticals they're targeting, whether it's running or lifestyle or, you know, other types of activities?

[Poonam Goyal]

So running is a core category that they're focused on. They have launched a new innovation in running. Running actually with their new pipeline has done very well. In the US we saw that running was up nicely, whereas the rest of the business was down slightly to up slightly depending on the quarter that you look at over the last 12 months. We also think that they're focused on sport. So when you think about Nike and if you compare it to Adidas, you know, I think there's a big difference in the way that they're approaching their businesses, which allows both of them to succeed. Nike is focused solely and most importantly on sports and performance, whereas Adidas has owned for the last few years the lifestyle category. And I do think that Nike's focus on sports is the right one and that is where they should be to drive this turnaround.

[Scarlet Fu]

What about tariffs? Poonam tariffs is certainly something that affects Nike. I know that Vietnam and the US has reached a trade deal. Most of the footwear in this country is manufactured in Vietnam. But how is Nike managing through this headwind?

[Poonam Goyal]

So the headwind is here and it's here to stay. Nike has selectively increased prices to combat the tariff impact. It's also negotiated supplier relationships and found efficiencies internal, just like the rest of the space. Nike isn't alone in the tariff situation. We do think that, you know, tariffs will continue to impact margin in 2026 as well as the shift from DTC to wholesale. The Wholesale business is doing better and Nike is more focused on it today because it had lost focus years ago. So that mix shift is negative. That said, as more full price selling takes hold, as we see signs of China improving over the next 12 to 18 months, those are both areas where they can help to recover loss margin. 2026 calendar year is not a margin story for Nike. It's a top line story. I think 2027 is where we can start to talk about margin expansion.

[Paul Sweeney]

Putam one of your discussions with Nike and other consumer products makers and apparel makers. What's the consensus today about the consumer?

[Poonam Goyal]

The consumer is mixed. The luxury or the affluent consumer is clearly doing better than the low income consumer. And we do think the consumer will continue to make choices and where they shop. But we think the consumer is looking for fashion, it's looking for newness, it's looking for what's hot in the market. And as long as brands and retailers can be on trend, they will drive sales of those products because that is where the consumer is shopping on trend products.

[Scarlet Fu]

How much rope are investors willing to give Elliot Hill?

[Poonam Goyal]

I mean, I think like you do need to give him another year. We need to give him 6 to 12 months to start to see China inventory moderating and the situation beginning to unfold for the rest of the world. I think he's proven that things are becoming stable and that they are on the uptick in 2026, especially later in 2026.

[Paul Sweeney]

Our thanks to Poonam Goyal, Senior US E Commerce and Retail analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

[Scarlet Fu]

We move next to research that BI recently put out on North American airlines in 2026.

[Paul Sweeney]

According to by slowing capacity growth in the first quarter, including cuts from some low cost carriers look set to moderate airfare declines. But weaker economies of scale will likely negate any benefits to profit.

[Scarlet Fu]

For more, we brought in George Ferguson, our senior aerospace, defense and airlines analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked George about how healthy the airline industry is and what the outlook looks like for 2026.

[Conrad Kay]

Look, I think, you know, as we get into 2026 and we're looking at schedules, we're seeing a lot of the growth coming from the big full service carriers. United especially continues to sort of pour on the gas here and put a lot of capacity in the marketplace. Delta a bit less than them, American even a bit less than them. We're going to have Southwest starting to sell premium seats and everybody's got a plan for bringing more premium seats to the marketplace. So you know, when we just look at the full service carriers, you're going to see like 3, 4% seat growth in the first half from those big full service carriers. I think that means there's probably a risk. Premium seats are going to start to feel some pressure on fares and that's been, you know, the really big driver of this business, especially for those big full service carriers. It's been driving their profitability. On the, you know, economy end. We're seeing Spirit Airlines, they're sort of between this world and that world a little bit. We're trying to figure out if they're going to survive. Might get bought by Frontier. They've dropped a bunch of airplanes. We're seeing some of these carriers cut capacity because of weakness in those seat prices. So I think we'll start to see at least some, you know, firming up of that, of that basic economy as the market tries to get that back in balance. So I think that's what we're going to see in first after the new year.

[Scarlet Fu]

So it sounds like there's going to be a surplus of those premium seats and then that leaves a big empty hole here for the frontiers and the spirits. Are they going to be forced to offer also some kind of premium version of what they currently have on offer?

[Conrad Kay]

I don't know. I mean, I think everybody's trying to figure out a way to get more premium in their airplane. They're not, you know, they're not forced, but they want, they want that premium travel that's going to just keep flying through, you know, through good and bad economic times and not have the challenges of inflation on their budget and things like that. So I don't know if they're forced, but we're definitely seeing all of them look at ways to increase the price. They can get the customer to pay per seat, whether it's block a middle seat, you know, so it might be three by three kind of airplane. They might block the middle seat. Some of them are talking about putting, you know, more recline and nicer seats in the front of the airplane. So everybody, I think everybody has a plan for how to get more premium in their airplane. And again, that's going to mean like everything in the airline business, we'll get offsides on premium before it's all done. I think it begins in the first half. I don't think premium seat prices are going to crater, unfortunately. We're not going to be able to go anywhere really super cheap fly in front of the airplane in the first half. But I don't think it'll be as good as it was in 20, 25 wages.

[Paul Sweeney]

That's a big cost component for these airlines. I want my pilot that's happy and want them feeling like they're well paid. Talk to us about the wage dynamic in the industry.

[Conrad Kay]

Yeah, I mean, look, you know, we still see, you know, I don't know that I want to call it a shortage, but you know, it's a, it's a difficult balance between the number of pilots out there and what's needed by the airlines and the, you know, the number of people coming into the industry and getting air transport licenses and things like that. And so the pilots are still decently paid. You know, they came off years, decades ago. They just had many, many bad years. There was a surplus of them. So they've been catching up. And they got these 20% increases in the last couple contracts. And in the last contract we saw a 20% increase and then a 4%, 5%. So actually it was a couple, it was a five and a couple fours. But 4% salary gain increases. They're pretty nice in this economy. And the airlines really can't afford that kind of inflation in their cost base. The pilots are a big part of it. And so they keep rolling out bigger airplanes. And that's another challenge in the marketplace. Right, as you, you put a bigger airplane behind the pilot so you could defray their costs over more seats. You got to fly all those seats into these markets and sometimes you're discounting more to fill the airplane. So that's a challenge. Challenge and continues in the, in the new year. We think the airlines would be managing cost inflation there maintenance and gates everywhere.

[Scarlet Fu]

So wages a big part of airlines costs the biggest part. But then fuel is the second biggest or can be, and jet fuel has actually come down in 2025. Is that going to continue to be a tailwind in 2026?

[Conrad Kay]

So, you know, we kind of, we looked at it recently, put it out in the Bloomberg terminal bi space airln we did some, some scenario analysis on this. Look, I have a hard time seeing fuel prices dip significantly lower than here. But I am no oil man. If I was, I'd own a football team. But I'm no oil man. I don't know where those prices are going. All I can tell you is if they stick around $2, the airlines will get. The airlines had a nice tailwind from fuel as fuel prices fell, it buffered their margins. If they stick around $2, they probably get a bit of a tailwind in the first quarter, but they're not going to get a lot of Gains from fuel. That's not going to buffer their margins.

[Paul Sweeney]

Did the airlines hedge their fuel exposure? Because boy, I think I'd be hedging right here if I were cfo.

[Conrad Kay]

Not anymore. I think every so often they surprise you. And so I hear what you're saying. Like you know, you could see one of those crazy CFOs out there going, hey, we might as well hedge here. Could be as good as we get. We saw Southwest do that a number of times in their history and win big. But for the most part recently, what we've seen is almost the entire field does not hedge fuel prices anymore. If you think about it, they kind of sell tickets out six, eight weeks so they have sort of a future commitment for fuel prices out that far if fuel prices rise dramatically. I think everybody in the marketplace adjusts fares fairly quickly because they're not edged and so I think, you know, when they look at the pack that they, they're, that they're flying in, maybe the airlines, they think no one else hedging fuel. I'm not going to run the risk to be wrong in a hedge will stay on hedge.

[Scarlet Fu]

Our thanks to George Ferguson, our in house senior aerospace, defense and airlines analyst. Coming up, we continue with travel and look at how cruise lines may fare against theme parks next year.

[Paul Sweeney]

You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio providing in depth research and data on 2000 companies and 130 industries.

[Scarlet Fu]

You can access Bloomberg Intelligence through Bigo on the terminal. Welcome to the channel. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Paul Sweeney and this is Bloomberg.

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[Scarlet Fu]

This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move next to research Bloomberg Intelligence recently put out on Cruise Lines versus theme parks in 2026, according to by.

[Scarlet Fu]

Six Flags and United. Parks may see more customer visits this year, but this may not equate to in park spending.

[Paul Sweeney]

Cruise line customers, by comparison, are booking longer trips further in advance. For more on all of this, we were joined by Jodi Lurie, Bloomberg Intelligence Credit Analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We began by asking Jody to give us an analysis on how cruises are performing.

[Jodi Lurie]

So the cruise lines always have a dedicated base, but cruising is sort of interesting because it's only 2% of the travel industry. It really is such a small portion of it. Where we've been watching is for those new to cruisers, which I don't know if I'm necessarily convinced that they're going as often or they're attracting the new to cruisers. But the cruisers are still very much cruising and they're spending more than the average consumer.

[Scarlet Fu]

They're also spending more than the people who go to theme parks, according to your research. And partly that might be because because the cruise line industry attracts a different kind of customer than the theme park industry. Theme park skews younger. Cruises skew older.

[Paul Sweeney]

Easy.

[Scarlet Fu]

Which would you prefer if you are an operator? Which would you prefer if you're an investor?

[Jodi Lurie]

So we don't make Full recommendations. But I will tell you a couple of things based on our research findings. So first of all, you have to think about how people book cruising versus how they book theme parks. So when you're talking about cruises, they book far in advance. They book a year or two well in advance. And what the cruise lines have been doing, particularly post pandemic is they've been locking people in on the drink packages, on the experiences they've been giving these steal of deals, excursion ideas. And when you get on the boat, it's more expensive. So people say okay, I'm going to book my cruise, but I'm also going to book this, you know, the snorkeling and I'm going to book this, I'm going to book that. The ones that I definitely want to do, they also book the drink packages, which you know, I think you can go either way on that personally because I don't think I drink enough, but maybe other people do. And it really sort of just helps their cash flows. Now theme parks people book much later, they are younger, they are lower income than the US median household. And the key for them is they can get people in the door. They can get them with, with season passes or they can just get them for the one day pass. But they're not necessarily convincing them to spend in park the same way.

[Scarlet Fu]

But there's higher volume in theme parks right there.

[Jodi Lurie]

There's pretty high volume in theme parks. But if they're just paying for the admission, it might not necessarily cover the cost per se. Right. They'll get in the door. But they have high capex, they have high, just high cost in general. And they have all the employees that.

[Paul Sweeney]

They'Re paying for Six Flags, that's a theme park that got some local jersey flavor here. Six Flags Great Adventure. How's the capital structure for these theme parks?

[Jodi Lurie]

They are high capex. So high capital intensive companies, they have.

[Paul Sweeney]

High leverage rides and.

[Jodi Lurie]

Right, exactly. And similar to cruise line. So where we sort of see it interesting is theme parks and cruise lines are constantly, they have to get the new experience in, right. So they have to spend not just on maintaining their products, so not just maintaining the ship or maintaining the ride, they also have to get new ones in. So people say I want to go to Great Adventure because I want to ride Superman. Right. So they do this to get people excited, draw them in so that they're going. I mean the biggest example that we don't cover, I don't cover Universe, Universal or Comcast, but you know, Universal's new theme park was a big driver to Florida. It wasn't as, as big as expected necessarily, but it's still pretty big. Now if you're talking about the regional theme parks is a little bit more difficult because people aren't necessarily planning these long term vacations around great adventure.

[Scarlet Fu]

Do the theme parks attract more domestic consumers than the cruises? I mean I'm just curious in terms of the sustainability and the stability of your customer base.

[Jodi Lurie]

So it depends on the brand because if you look pre pandemic and now going into a few years post pandemic, the cruise lines they segment so Norwegian, most of their customer base is us. They're US customers. When you get to Royal Caribbean it's a little bit less. It's about. So I think it's about 80% for Norwegian. I'm doing this off the top of my head memory but 80% Norwegian you get to about. It's like 70 or 65 for Royal and then you get to Carnival and it's even less than that. It's closer to half. It's not quite half. That are us versus international. They have a much larger international presence. Brian Egger and I, my equity counterpart, we were on the Aida, which is one of their brands that they market to international customers, specifically in Germany. And it was a 133 round the world cruise. They were stopping in New York for the day and they brought a bunch of us on, a bunch of us equity and credit nerds and took us around the ship and everything was in German as expected because most of their customers were German. So that's. Carnival has a much more diversified customer base. If you talk about theme parks, Sea World or United parks as they go by now their Florida parks, which make up about half their revenue is International, about 10, 20%. But when you get to Six Flags it's much more domestic.

[Paul Sweeney]

We were off the Amalfi coast last fall.

[Scarlet Fu]

Whoa, fancy.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I saw this big yacht that's like either navy blue or black. And I said what is. Who owns that? He said it's the Ritz Carlton.

[Jodi Lurie]

The Ritz Carlton, Yes.

[Paul Sweeney]

I actually have their just parked in.

[Scarlet Fu]

Those are small though. I mean in terms of the.

[Jodi Lurie]

Relative to 500 people.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yeah, I mean that looked pretty cool.

[Jodi Lurie]

Yeah, that's for the people who want to be on a luxury yacht but don't want to actually own a luxury yacht. Right. The joke about boats is bring on another thousand. Right. My mother in law likes to always say that and that's why it's called boat. But the thing about cruising is that there's a perception about who the typical cruiser is, right? It's the older people who are retired who like to bring basically the cat's coat skills on the water. But really, I mean it's changed over time. And what's interesting about our credit research and our travel survey that we do every half a year is we're seeing that it's actually really, really spread out. If you look into the buckets that we've segmented, it's really, you know, it's 1/3 of each. So it's 1/3 18 to 34 year olds, 1/3 that like middle age group and 55 and older 1 third. So it's really not specifically the older.

[Paul Sweeney]

Our thanks to Jodi Lurie, Bloomberg Intelligence Credit Analyst.

[Scarlet Fu]

We move next to research that Bloomberg Intelligence recently published on the cloud computing platform Amazon Web services.

[Paul Sweeney]

According to BIW, sales can improve in 2026 by 22.5% in constant currency or 200 basis points above consensus.

[Scarlet Fu]

This would be aided by widening enterprise AI adoption and more data center capacity coming online. A potential $10 billion investment in OpenAI could also be another sales catalyst, assuming it comes with more cloud infrastructure commitments.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more on all this, I was joined by Anuragrana, Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analyst. I first asked Anurag where we are in the growth trajectory of aws.

[Odoo Advertiser]

When you look at aws, one of the narratives over the last two years has been that they have been a laggard in AI. And large portion of that is because ChatGPT, before the contract change with Microsoft, was only hosted on Microsoft Azure. As the capacity constraints started, Microsoft farmed outside some of that business to Core Weave and then Oracle and so forth. But in the most recent agreement you can see that ChatGPT can be hosted in other cloud providers. So that's one area to focus on. But the big thing for AWS is it's an enterprise business. It's not so much a consumer chat opera. So this is the year where we think that thing kicks off and what we are thinking is the growth rate for AWS improves successively every quarter going into the end of the year year.

[Paul Sweeney]

Has Amazon invested in Open Air, any of that type of thing? Is that are they part of those what people refer to as circular deals?

[Odoo Advertiser]

So Amazon is not directly invested in OpenAI. They have a new contract with them right now. They have invested in Anthropic. So that's an area where you know when you are partnering with the second largest LLM provider. I mean I'm not counting Google because That's it's part of a big conglomerate but a pure play, you know, vendor which is anthropic. So they have invested in that, they partner with them. And we think that actually workloads also go up. We recently did an AI survey and part of what we found out was software companies are using anthropic more and more mostly for the coding reasons. And I think if that accelerates, that actually helps out Amazon as well because some of those workloads do get up to aws. The big part of the AWS story is it is the largest cloud provider. So the successive growth rate or to see a big number jump over there, unlike a Google, the delta is huge or the growth rates are not the same. But what we think this year some of those enterprise workloads start to flow in as more their capacity comes online. They have invested heavily in data centers and some of that actually shows up this year. And that we think is going to help us help them improve their growth rates.

[Paul Sweeney]

So from a competitive landscape position, how do you think of AWS in the AI space?

[Odoo Advertiser]

Yeah, so when you look at the traditional space they are the clear leader. But when you look at the AI infrastructure space, that lead is starting with Microsoft because they got ChatGPT to begin with. So that's one. Then you have Google do doing very well with their TPU stuff. Oracle and Core Vee also getting into that. But Amazon still has a very large portfolio over there. And what we think is going to happen this year is they have been spending a lot of money to expand that data centers. They're going to get more and more AI infrastructure orders because at the end of the day they have the capital. They also get the same chips from Nvidia. They have the luxury or the know how to build those data centers and plug these things together. So I think this is the year where they kind of break through from a lot of this narrative of being an AI like.

[Paul Sweeney]

And that's kind of reflected in the stock on Rock. I'm just looking at over the trailing 12 months, you know, only up about 5% is the reason because they just haven't necessarily got the full AI, you know, kind of win in their sale.

[Odoo Advertiser]

No, because the kind of work they're doing is very different. The first phase of AI boom that we have seen is in the consumer app. It's in the Chat GPT and the Gemini. What we have seen, they're not enterprises, they're not large banks that are, you know, adding more AI capabilities. But we are in that phase of enterprising more AI capabilities. And when that happens, you know, they have the large infrastructure plus they have a lot of the data that these big companies reside in the Amazon ecosystem. I think that's where they benefit the most.

[Paul Sweeney]

I mean, it's not very often in the last, I don't know, 15 years where we could say Amazon is, is cheap or Amazon looks like a good buy relative to its peer set. But I mean, if you have a certain time horizon. Is that what the bulls are saying here?

[Odoo Advertiser]

Yeah, I think that's where it is that, you know, so far the narrative has only been about OpenAI and chat, GPT and Microso. I think that narrative starts to change this year with more and more enterprise adoption. And you and I talked about it just a few weeks ago that we did an AI survey where enterprises are really looking forward to deploy some of these AI tools internally. And that's not going to happen in isolation. They have to build that on some data framework, some kind of AI framework. And that's where AWS comes in.

[Scarlet Fu]

Our thanks to Anuragrana Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio providing in depth research and data on 2,000 companies and 130 industries.

[Scarlet Fu]

And remember, you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via by go on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up. Right now.

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[Paul Sweeney]

That'S odoo.com live, CBS Sunday. Hollywood's biggest party is now bigger than ever.

[Scarlet Fu]

Perfect. No notes.

[Paul Sweeney]

The Golden Globes with more stars, more.

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Glamour, more chaos and more host Nikki Glazer.

[Scarlet Fu]

We're going to laugh at the celebrities.

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That can take it and completely ignore.

[Jodi Lurie]

The ones who can't.

[Scarlet Fu]

I'm just kidding. They're not safe either.

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The Golden Globes live CBS Sunday, 8.

[Paul Sweeney]

Eastern, 5 Pacific and streaming on Paramount.

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Plus Pro.

[Paul Sweeney]

Drivers live for race day. But for small business owners, every day is race day. That's why Gold Boeing Pro with Lenovo Pro matters one on one advice. It solutions and customized hardware powered by Intel Core Ultra processors. Keep your business on the right track. Business goes pro with Lenovo Pro. Sign up for [e-mail] pro.