Bloomberg Intelligence

Episode: BI Weekend: Nike Turnaround, Airlines Outlook, AWS Growth
Date: January 9, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu & Paul Sweeney

Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Intelligence explores pivotal market trends and company outlooks across multiple sectors. The hosts, Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney, leverage research and insights from Bloomberg Intelligence analysts and special guests. Featured topics include the ongoing turnaround at Nike, the evolving sports betting and prediction markets landscape, the state and outlook for North American airlines, competition between cruise lines and theme parks, and the renewed growth prospects of Amazon Web Services (AWS) driven by AI adoption. The episode also features a special interview with the creators of HBO's Industry.

Key Segments and Discussion Points

1. HBO’s "Industry": Inside the World of Finance Drama

Guests: Mickey Down & Conrad Kay (Co-creators, Executive Producers, Writers)
Timestamps: 03:01–09:10

Main Insights

• Season 4 Theme: Examines the transformation of characters who now wield power in finance and how this changes them.
• Industry Reflections: The show mirrors the push toward a more technocratic finance industry, with fewer liberal arts backgrounds making it in.
• Broader Focus: While banking is central, underlying themes revolve around power, class, and the intersection of capitalism with politics and media.
• Audience Feedback: "All the time… it’s really become a bit of a recruitment tool. You know, people are saying that it’s the reason they got into Wall Street." (Mickey Down, 08:43)
• Casting Choices: Inclusion of American actors in British settings helps American audiences access the story and reflects the global nature of finance.
• Industry Shifts: The team notes contraction in original TV programming and the importance of timing during the “gold rush” of high-content production.
• Notable Moment: Paul Sweeney recounts shared experience: "You haven't had a Wall street career until you’ve been fired from Wall Street—100%." (Paul Sweeney, 04:08)

2. Sports Betting and Prediction Markets

Guest: Brian Egger (Senior Gaming & Lodging Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 09:19–14:22

Key Points

• New Products: DraftKings and FanDuel are expanding with 'prediction market’ apps to compete with platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood, especially in states lacking legalized sportsbooks.
• Market Size & Challenges: The prediction market is substantial, but regulatory issues persist—especially the state vs. federal regulatory divide (CFTC vs. state gaming commissions).
• Consumer Base: Larger states without sports betting (e.g., Texas, California) are prime targets. There’s confusion over regulation and risk of overlap with Native American gaming rights.
• Social Concerns: Notable youth and college-aged engagement raises concerns:
  • "I see kids, high school kids having conversations in detail showing a level of expertise which really blows me away. Kids, high school kids - and I don’t know, it just doesn’t feel right." (Paul Sweeney, 13:34)
• Industry Outlook: Prediction markets are both a risk and opportunity for established sportsbook providers.

3. Nike’s North American Turnaround and China Struggles

Guest: Poonam Goyal (Senior US E-Commerce & Retail Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 17:04–22:34

Highlights

• North America Recovery: Improvement due to better inventory management; US business expected to be clean within 3–6 months.
• China’s Challenge:
  • Discounting and aged inventory have hurt brand perception, making Nike seem like an off-price brand.
  • "I think what they will do now… is they will clean out that aged inventory. But as we know, that will take time… it takes anywhere from 12 to 18 months." (Poonam Goyal, 18:15)
• Product Strategy: Focused investment in performance and running categories differentiates Nike from lifestyle-oriented Adidas.
• Tariffs & Margins:
  • Tariffs remain a headwind; Nike is increasing prices and renegotiating supplier terms.
  • Margin impacts expected in 2026, with recovery tied to full-price sales and China stabilization.
    • "2026…is not a margin story for Nike. It’s a top line story. I think 2027 is where we can start to talk about margin expansion." (Poonam Goyal, 20:35)
• Investor Patience: CEO Elliott Hill may need another 6–12 months to show tangible results in China.

4. North American Airlines Outlook for 2026

Guest: George Ferguson (Senior Aerospace, Defense, and Airlines Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 22:43–29:04

Key Insights

• Capacity and Premiumization:
  • Full-service carriers (United, Delta, American) will grow seats 3–4% in H1 2026; focus is on premium seats.
  • Low-cost carriers (e.g., Spirit) are cutting capacity amid weak seat prices.
  • "Everybody’s got a plan for bringing more premium seats to the marketplace… We’ll get offsides on premium before it’s all done." (George Ferguson, 24:40)
• Wage Pressure:
  • Pilot salaries have surged (recent contracts up to 20% increases), putting pressure on airline margins.
  • "The pilots are still decently paid... They got these 20% increases in the last couple contracts." (George Ferguson, 25:54)
• Jet Fuel Costs: While jet fuel prices fell in 2025 and could provide some tailwind, most airlines no longer hedge fuel, preferring to adjust fares as needed.
• Industry Risks: Extra-premium capacity may eventually pressure fares, cost management remains challenging.

5. Cruise Lines Vs. Theme Parks

Guest: Jodi Lurie (Credit Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 31:50–38:14

Discussion Points

• Spending Patterns:
  • Cruise customers tend to pre-book and commit to ancillary packages (drinks, excursions), aiding cruise line cash flow.
  • Theme parks attract younger, lower-income, and more domestic clientele. Spend per visit can lag due to last-minute booking and less pre-purchase.
    • "When you get on the boat, it’s more expensive... The ones that I definitely want to do, they also book the drink packages..." (Jodi Lurie, 33:01)
• Cost Structure:
  • Both industries have high capex requirements—maintenance and periodic new attractions or ships.
  • Theme parks, especially regional ones, face challenges from less destination-based traffic and reliance on volume.
• Customer Demographics:
  • Cruises: Historically older Americans, but now more diverse—"It’s really not specifically the older [customer base]." (Jodi Lurie, 38:14)
  • Theme parks: More domestic, especially for brands like Six Flags.

6. Amazon Web Services (AWS) and AI Growth

Guest: Anurag Rana (Technology Analyst, BI)
Timestamps: 38:17–43:12

Major Insights

• AI Adoption:
  • AWS expected to see sales grow by 22.5% in 2026, outpacing consensus estimates, driven by wider enterprise AI adoption and new data center capacity.
  • "This is the year where we think that thing kicks off… the growth rate for AWS improves successively every quarter going into the end of the year." (Anurag Rana, 39:41)
• Competitive Landscape:
  • AWS has lagged in AI narrative compared to Microsoft (Azure/OpenAI) but has invested in Anthropic and will benefit from enterprise deployments.
• Valuation Perspective: With the AI story shifting to enterprise, AWS’s exponential growth is expected to be recognized, making Amazon stock attractively valued for long-term investors.
  • "So far the narrative has only been about OpenAI and chat, GPT and Microso. I think that narrative starts to change this year with more and more enterprise adoption." (Anurag Rana, 42:43)

Notable Quotes

• On Power and Corruption in Finance:

  • "Now they have power. What do they decide to do with it and how does it corrupt them, how does it mutate them?"
    — Mickey Down, 03:25

• On Prediction Markets Regulation:

  • "Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC. So it’s state versus federal. And that’s been the argument of Kalshi: that we’re a financial futures contract. We’re not sports betting. We are federally regulated."
    — Brian Egger, 11:51

• On Nike’s China Troubles:

  • "What’s been happening in China is that Nike has been selling at a discount to clear inventory as the vicious cycle of weaker sales has led to more discounting."
    — Poonam Goyal, 18:15

• On Airlines' Premium Seat Race:

  • "Everybody has a plan for how to get more premium in their airplane... we’ll get offsides on premium before it’s all done."
    — George Ferguson, 24:40

• On AWS and the Enterprise AI Wave:

  • "The big part of the AWS story is… as more of their capacity comes online… we think that’s going to help them improve their growth rates."
    — Anurag Rana, 40:59

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment/Topic | Timestamps | |-------------------------------------------|-------------------------| | HBO’s "Industry" Interview | 03:01–09:10 | | Sports Betting/Prediction Markets | 09:19–14:22 | | Nike Turnaround & China Issues | 17:04–22:34 | | North American Airlines Outlook | 22:43–29:04 | | Cruise Lines vs. Theme Parks | 31:50–38:14 | | AWS’s AI Growth Prospects | 38:17–43:12 |

Tone and Style

The episode maintains an analytical yet conversational feel. Hosts and guests blend industry expertise with approachable dialogue, candidly sharing firsthand experiences (with Wall Street, travel, etc.) and keeping the mood engaging and accessible for market professionals and lay listeners alike.

This summary captures the vital insights, expert commentary, and strategic outlooks discussed in the show, offering comprehensive value for anyone seeking quick yet thorough understanding of the topics—even without tuning into the episode itself.