Bloomberg Intelligence

Episode: BI Weekend: Novo Pill, Retail Earnings, Restaurant Sales
Date: November 28, 2025
Hosts: Scarlet Fu & Paul Sweeney

Episode Overview

Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney leverage the expertise of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts to break down vital market news and explore company research. This episode centers on a range of topics: the recent setback for Novo Nordisk's Alzheimer's pill, trends in the restaurant sector, standout retail earnings (Kohl’s, Abercrombie & Fitch, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Best Buy), travel budgets into 2026, Cisco’s growth prospects, and evolving FCC policy impacting TV networks. The discussion features expert insights, market trends, and sharp commentary, designed to guide investors and industry watchers.

Main Topics & Key Insights

1. Novo Nordisk Pill Fails Alzheimer’s Test

Segment: [02:43]–[08:10]

• Context: Novo Nordisk’s pill form of Ozempic (semaglutide) failed to show benefits in slowing Alzheimer’s progression, causing the company’s stock to fall.
• Expert Guest: Sam Fazeli, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of Research, Global Industries & Senior Pharmaceuticals Analyst

Key Points:

• Trials tested semaglutide (GLP-1 drug) in pill form for Alzheimer’s, based on some early observational and animal evidence.
• The trial did not reach efficacy; some secondary “biomarker” effects were noted, but the primary endpoint failed ([03:15]).
• Potential reasons for the failure:
  • Theory may have been flawed, or
  • Pill delivery possibly less effective than injectable forms.
• On future prospects:
  “Who’s going to put the money in to test it?”—Sam Fazeli ([04:22])
  • Other companies (e.g., Lilly, Roche) are pursuing alternative drug mechanisms.
• Market implications: Alzheimer's is a vast and growing market as the population ages. Effective treatments exist to slow, but not stop or reverse, disease progress ([05:25]).
• Timeframe: In the next two–three years, we may see early diagnosis treatments reach market, but costs and access are major hurdles ([07:15]).
• “Try and slow that down to give them another 10, 12, 20 years of dignified life.”—Sam Fazeli on treating mild cognitive impairment ([06:22]).

2. Restaurant Industry Update

Segment: [08:15]–[13:34]

• Expert Guest: Michael Halen, BI Senior Restaurant & Food Service Analyst

Key Points:

• Fine dining: Strong rebound as high-income consumers, buoyed by assets, continue spending ([08:41]).
• Quick Service (QSR):
  • Weak first half of 2025 due to overaggressive price hikes, leading to customer pushback, especially among lower-income groups.
  • Recovery in second half after renewed focus on value (e.g., McDonald’s dollar menu and new snack wraps) ([09:46]).
  • McDonald’s set to see gains as it laps last year’s E. coli scare.
• Beef prices: Significant cost inflation, putting heavy margin pressure on burger chains/steakhouses ([11:10]).
  • Franchise-heavy models (e.g., McDonald’s, Wendy’s) shield parent companies from beef inflation, shifting burden to franchisees.
• Franchise vs. owned/operated models:
  • Franchising offers stable, predictable earnings and less margin risk.
  • Retaining ownership works better for operations-focused or high-return chains (e.g., Texas Roadhouse, Cava) ([12:32]).

Notable Quote:

• “We love it. It's easier to predict the earnings and the free cash flow. It's a much more steady business model.”—Michael Halen on franchising ([12:32])

3. Retail Earnings: Kohl’s & Abercrombie & Fitch

Segment: [16:35]–[20:10]

• Expert Guest: Mary Ross Gilbert, BI Senior Equity Analyst, Retail

Key Points:

Kohl’s:

• “They've kind of gone back to the basics…”—Mary Ross Gilbert ([17:05])
• Emphasis on private brands and petite sizing—reversing former leadership’s pivot to more external brands.
• Positive comp sales in the most recent month is encouraging, positioning the chain to possibly break even in Q4.
• Still losing market share to off-price and value chains (e.g., Old Navy, Gap).

Abercrombie & Fitch:

• The Abercrombie brand is cycling high double-digit gains from prior years, causing softer current comps, but still better than expected ([19:00]).
• Hollister (the Gen Z-focused label) is driving momentum, posting double-digit comp increases and compensating for some Abercrombie slowdown.
• Prospects for positive comps in Q4, riding strength from Hollister and strategic brand positioning.

4. Tech Industry: Cisco’s “Goldilocks” Growth

Segment: [20:21]–[24:24]

• Expert Guest: Woo Chin Ho, BI Senior Technology Analyst

Key Points:

• Cisco’s product upgrade cycle: $43 billion upgrade opportunity could drive outsized growth.
• AI Segment: Revenue could triple to $3B in fiscal 2026 from $1B in 2025; overall company growth expected at the high end of guidance (~7–8% in 2026) ([20:39], [22:07]).
• Financial health: Net cash positive ($20B in debt, $30B in cash). No need to issue new debt for AI expansion ([21:26]).
• Risks: Some exposure to broader tech capex cycles, but AI is still a modest share (6–7%) of total sales.
• Return to shareholders: Active share buybacks and a stable dividend (currently 2%).

Memorable Moment:

• “What’s not to like? Stock buybacks and a dividend yield and an AI story if it works out.”—Woo Chin Ho ([24:15])

5. FCC, TV Network Ownership, and Trump’s Involvement

Segment: [24:24]–[29:11]

• Expert Guest: Matthew Shelton Helm, BI Media Litigation Analyst

Key Points:

• Trump opposes FCC moves to deregulate TV network ownership caps after Newsmax report, worrying about greater reach for select networks.
• The FCC’s regulation currently restricts any network from reaching >39% of households, but deals under review (e.g., Nexstar’s proposed acquisition of Tegna) could breach that ([25:00]).
• Trump’s influence may force the FCC to stall deregulation, but the policy impact remains to be seen.
• The industry is arguing for relaxed ownership limits, given broadcast’s decreasing influence in a digital-first world, and its competition with unregulated streaming giants ([28:08]).

Notable Quote:

• “I think this FCC wants to deregulate in this space, and I think there’s going to be a pushback against Trump’s view on this.”—Matthew Shelton Helm ([26:19])

6. Additional Retail Earnings: Dick’s Sporting Goods & Best Buy

Segment: [32:14]–[37:44]

• Expert Guest: Lindsey Dutch, BI Consumer Hardlines Senior Analyst

Key Points:

Dick’s Sporting Goods:

• Strong legacy business in Q3; raised outlook on continued momentum.
• Foot Locker acquisition brings challenges: weak Q4 expected, significant markdowns to clear inventory ([32:51]).
• Nike remains a crucial vendor for Foot Locker, especially in basketball; Dick’s diversifying with newer brands.

Best Buy:

• Q3 beat expectations, driven by mobile and computing sales, with signs of home theater recovery ([35:52]).
• Guidance for Q4 conservative; promotions will be key.
• Expansion into marketplace selling and increased advertising to capture more wallet share.

7. Travel Budgets & Trends for 2026

Segment: [37:48]–[43:06]

• Expert Guest: Jodi Lurie, BI Senior Credit Analyst

Key Points:

• Two-thirds of surveyed consumers expect to maintain or increase vacation budgets for 2026; however, those who face cost overruns are less likely to expand their budgets ([38:16]).
• Inflation is shaping behavior: more people plan to seek free or low-cost activities if budgets are exceeded.
• Americans are favoring closer destinations—for example, Canada now ranks second for international travel, likely bolstered by events like the World Cup ([39:40]).
• “All-inclusives” and tiered premium products (in cruises, airlines, car rentals) are popular, but “all-inclusive” often comes with extra upcharges for formerly bundled services ([41:28], [42:38]).

Memorable Exchange:

• Paul Sweeney on all-inclusives:
  “If I had, if I knew about the all inclusive, that would have been a savior for me. What are people doing when... I mean, they're not going to Poughkeepsie, they're going to Paris.” ([41:00–41:24])

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “It would be magic if this thing just helped so many different diseases.”—Sam Fazeli on the broad potential of GLP-1 drugs ([04:46])
• “Franchising eliminates a lot of the operating leverage and thus the risk to your margins out of the business. Right.”—Michael Halen ([12:32])
• “The industry would have an effective argument...broadcasters are left to try to fight with one hand tied behind their back with these, these, you know, ancient FCC rules on the books.”—Matthew Shelton Helm ([28:08])
• “You're only talking about 6 to 7% of total sales. Right. So if the AI story collapses, they're still in very good stuff.”—Woo Chin Ho on Cisco ([23:21])
• “Even though you have something called all inclusives...what every company is doing...is they're all segmenting to give the lower income consumer the ability to say that they traveled and the higher income consumer the ability to travel luxury.”—Jodi Lurie ([41:28–42:31])

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------------|------------| | Novo Nordisk Pill/Alzheimer's Trial | 02:43–08:10| | Restaurant Industry Trends | 08:15–13:34| | Retail Earnings: Kohl’s & Abercrombie & Fitch | 16:35–20:10| | Cisco’s Growth and AI Story | 20:21–24:24| | FCC/Media Ownership and Trump’s Comments | 24:24–29:11| | Retail Earnings: Dick’s & Best Buy | 32:14–37:44| | Travel & Leisure Budgets for 2026 | 37:48–43:06|

Conclusion

This week’s Bloomberg Intelligence episode delivers a comprehensive sweep of the landscape for investors, covering pharma setbacks, consumer trends driving restaurants and retailers, tech sector optimism, regulatory tension in the media, and evolving travel patterns. The collective takeaway: uncertainty remains, but pockets of growth and opportunity persist for those tuned in to the data and ready for the risks.