BI Weekend: Nvidia, Retail Earnings, Anthropic Investment

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode: BI Weekend: Nvidia, Retail Earnings, Anthropic Investment
Date: November 21, 2025
Hosts: Scarlett Fu and Paul Sweeney

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Overview

This episode spotlights major corporate earnings and trends across technology, retail, payments, and biotech. The discussion draws on deep analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence experts, zeroing in on Nvidia’s impressive AI-fueled growth, a landmark Anthropic investment, shifting fortunes among big retailers, pricing dynamics in obesity drugs, and strong momentum in premium sportswear. Throughout, the focus is on what these developments signal for markets, competitive dynamics, and consumer trends.

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Key Segments & Insights

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1. Nvidia Earnings: AI Growth Powerhouse

[02:43 – 06:03]
Guest: Kunjan Sobhani, Senior Semiconductor Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Earnings Blowout & Guidance: Nvidia posted bullish third-quarter earnings, beating the highest Street expectations for both Q3 and Q4 with guidance that appears conservative given a robust pipeline.
  • Quote (03:02): “This was one of the more bullish earnings we have seen from this name in a while… the half a trillion of the pipeline… is a conservative number.” – Kunjan Sobhani
• Demand Outlook: Inventory is rising, not as a warning sign, but due to preparation for sustained, massive AI infrastructure demand into 2026-27.
• Gaming vs. Data Center: Gaming chip results now almost irrelevant; data center AI dominates Nvidia’s business and growth profile.
  • Quote (04:03): “The reliability of the predictability of those numbers against which we are comparing the beat and miss for gaming is no longer as reliable.”
• China Impact: Nvidia assumes virtually no China GPU revenue due to geopolitics, despite having export licenses—demand in China is “basically shut down.”
  • Quote (04:40): “Because of geopolitical issues, China has basically been shut down for American GPU providers.”
• Competitive Landscape: Closest rivals are Broadcom (AI ASICs for Google), Amazon’s Trainium, and to a lesser extent AMD for merchant GPUs.

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2. Anthropic: The New AI Investment Battleground

[06:09 – 10:02]
Guest: Mandeep Singh, Global Tech Research Head, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Big Investments: Microsoft and Nvidia are investing up to $15B in Anthropic as part of its next funding round, with Anthropic committing to $30B in Azure cloud spend.
  • Anthropic is one of five “frontier” large language model (LLM) firms, alongside OpenAI, Google, Meta, and XAI.
• Funding Gap: Unlike cash-rich Google/Meta, Anthropic needs massive private funding and is leveraging strategic cloud partnerships for both money and compute.
• Industry Club: All “big tech” is circling AI startups; Meta stands (so far) outside this investment web, opting to use its own compute for its apps.
  • Quote (08:10): “Well, you could say Meta... they're doing their own thing in terms of using the compute internally and they don't have a cloud business.”
• Business Viability: Investors seek ROI for the huge AI infrastructure spends; Microsoft can do this via cloud/client deals, but Meta’s spending must be justified by much higher engagement.
  • Quote (08:32): “How are you generating ROI outside of your family of apps? And over there you have to show a really substantial increase in engagement...”
• Exit Prospects: Anthropic is more focused than OpenAI—potentially higher margins, less risk of distraction—but public listings still unclear.

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3. Retail Earnings: A Tale of Two Strategies

[10:05 – 13:34]
Guest: Jennifer Bartashas, Senior Analyst (Retail, Staples & Packaged Food), Bloomberg Intelligence

• Walmart: Reports continued strength, benefiting from value-seeking customers and a fast-growing e-commerce segment, now targeting higher-income shoppers with premium online offerings (e.g., pre-owned luxury goods).
  • Quote (10:39): “They’ve made investments in convenience that are really spurring e-commerce growth.”
• Nasdaq Move: Walmart is shifting its listing to Nasdaq, reflecting its digital evolution and aligning with tech-focused peers for higher valuation.
• Consumer Pulse: Walmart is optimistic for the holidays; spending is stable for middle/higher-income consumers, cautious at the lower end.
• Target: Facing sales drops amid competitive pressure and weaker discretionary consumer demand.
  • Walmart appears to be capturing share as shoppers prioritize value.

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4. Home Improvement Retail: Lowe’s vs. Home Depot

[15:40 – 20:04]
Guest: Drew Redding, US Homebuilding Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Lowe’s: Q3 results “better than feared," with stable underlying trends, but trimmed outlook reflects tough housing market and consumer uncertainty.
  • Quote (16:07): “Lowe’s results could be best characterized as better than feared… underling trends in the business are pretty stable.”
• Professional Focus: Lowe’s is targeting growth in professional contractors, acquiring to serve larger pros, but still trails Home Depot.
• Industry Structure: Market remains fragmented; expect more consolidation.
• Tariff Impacts: Tariffs (e.g., Canadian lumber, Asian tools, cabinetry) are prompting modest price hikes; the impact will rise in Q4 and 2026.

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5. Fintech Highlight: Klarna's Public Earnings Debut

[20:07 – 22:59]
Guest: Anthony Hughes, Equity Capital Markets Reporter, Bloomberg

• Strong Growth: Klarna, a “buy now, pay later” pioneer, posted record revenue in its first public quarter, with fast US growth (40-50%).
• Business Model: Most revenue comes from merchant fees, not consumer interest—making it attractive for both buyers (for budgeting) and merchants (increased sales).
  • Quote (21:20): “That pay-in-four product… is an interest-free product. The source of revenue is from the merchant.”
• User Profile: Typically younger users, small-ticket purchases, with global volume now at $110B.
• Competitive Landscape: Affirm is a key US rival.

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6. Pharma Spotlight: Novo Nordisk Lowers Obesity Drug Prices

[23:02 – 28:19]
Guest: Michael Shaw, Senior Pharma/Biotech Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Strategic Price Cuts: Novo Nordisk is slashing self-pay prices on Wegovy and Ozempic by ~30% to undercut rival Eli Lilly and expand the US market.
  • Quote (23:43): “This is basically a ploy to compete for new patient starts… Lilly’s got the more effective product.”
• Market Penetration: US obesity drug use remains low, but with price cuts and upcoming Medicare pilot, penetration should accelerate significantly.
• Hims & Hers Impact: Lower branded prices squeeze makers of compounded, off-label GLP-1s.
• Big Pharma Moves: Obesity drugs are a critical growth strategy amid patent cliffs; expect continued M&A to secure or expand pipelines.

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7. Off-Price Retail: TJX Continues to Outperform

[30:25 – 35:37]
Guest: Mary Ross Gilbert, Senior Equity Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Results: TJX (TJ Maxx, Marshalls) posted strong sales and raised comp sales guidance, reflecting consumers’ move to value as the economy slows.
  • Quote (30:48): “It appeals to all income groups... they have all the brands consumers want.”
• Inventory Sourcing: Despite better inventory management at full-price retailers, brands like PVH still supply off-price with unsold items, and luxury markdowns are now common.
• Growth Strategy: TJX pushes into international markets (Spain next), leveraging joint ventures and curated store drops tailored to demographics.
• Valuation: Investors pay a premium for TJX’s consistent execution, but the company continues to find growth, even in mature environments.

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8. Sportswear Surge: Amer Sports Raises Guidance

[35:41 – 41:58]
Guest: Abigail Gilmartin, Athleisure & Footwear Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Earnings Beat: Amer (Salomon, Arc'teryx, Wilson) delivered 30% sales growth and raised guidance for the third time in 2025.
• China Resilience: Navigated backlash from a PR misstep in China (Arc'teryx fireworks), yet Greater China sales surged 47%, quelling market fears.
  • Quote (36:12): “The key thing people are looking for was China… momentum is continuing into Q4.”
• Pricing Power: Premium positioning allows Amer to offset tariffs with minimal consumer resistance; full-price sell-through remains strong.
• Channel Strategy: Arc'teryx shifting to direct-to-consumer (DTC); Salomon still relies on wholesale, especially given consumers’ desire to try footwear in store.
• Market Trends: Nike remains top for Gen Z and Millennials, but brands like Hoka and On are gaining, albeit from a smaller base. Premium and niche brands are thriving even as competitors multiply.
• Risks: China was the key uncertainty, but otherwise Amer is executing well, especially in DTC and women's segments.

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Notable Quotes

• “There’s significant upside to the current street numbers [for Nvidia]... the half a trillion of the pipeline… is a conservative number.”
  — Kunjan Sobhani, [03:02]
• “All indicators right now seem that we’re headed toward a reasonably solid holiday season [for retail].”
  — Jennifer Bartashas, [12:51]
• “Lowe’s has historically focused on the small and medium sized pro. This acquisition gives them exposure to larger pros.”
  — Drew Redding, [17:13]
• “US penetration rates in obesity drugs are low single digits; that’s obviously going to accelerate as these drugs become cheaper.”
  — Michael Shaw, [24:42]
• “TJX has all the brands consumers want… that’s why their Marmax division reported a 6% sales increase.”
  — Mary Ross Gilbert, [30:48]
• “Amer [Sports] sales up 30%, broad based strength across regions, across channels and across brands.”
  — Abigail Gilmartin, [36:12]

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In Summary

This episode delivers a rich, data-driven tour of pivotal developments in AI, retail, payments, and life sciences. Nvidia remains the bellwether for AI demand, while Anthropic’s mega-investments underline the scale now required in artificial intelligence. Walmart’s tech evolution, Lowe’s push with pros, Klarna’s fintech rise, Novo Nordisk’s pricing offensive, the enduring appeal of value at TJX, and Amer’s global sports momentum collectively sketch a marketplace in flux but full of opportunity for those innovating, scaling, and meeting consumer needs.

For listeners: Expect sharp insight into how macroeconomics, technology disruption, and evolving consumer habits are actively shaping the world’s biggest companies—and the next market leaders.

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Transcript

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Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney.

[Paul Sweeney]

How do you think the Fed is looking at tariffs? The uncertainty of tariffs?

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Let's take a look at the sectors and how they perform.

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A lot of investors whipsawed every day.

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By news events, breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe. Could we see a market disruption? A market event?

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People just too exuberant out there.

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You see some so called low quality stocks driving this short term rally. Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio, YouTube and Bloomberg.

[Paul Sweeney]

Originals on today's Bloomberg Intelligence show we dig inside the big business stories impacting Wall street in the global markets each and every week.

[Scarlett Fu]

We provide in depth research and data on some of the 2000 companies and 130 industries are analysts cover worldwide.

[Paul Sweeney]

Today we'll look at earnings reports from some of the world's largest retailers.

[Scarlett Fu]

Plus a look at why the Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk will be further lowering the prices of its obesity drugs for cash paying patients.

[Paul Sweeney]

But first we'll begin with earnings from chip giant Nvidia.

[Scarlett Fu]

This week the company reported third quarter earnings that topped analysts estimates. Nvidia also delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast and pushed back on the idea that the AI industry is in a bubble.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more we were joined by Kunjan Sabani, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor analyst. We first asked Kun John for his take on Nvidia this week.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

This was one of the more bullish earnings we have seen from this name in a while. Not just on the numbers of the 3Q 4Q guide which they blew past even the loftiest buy side targets, but just beyond that, the long term the 26 sort of and going into 27 demand signals that they showed, namely the half a trillion of the pipeline which we think now is a conservative number given the number of deals they have announced. If supply keeps on coming up as it has and if their customers continue executing on these bills without any missteps, we think there's significant upside to the current street numbers.

[Scarlett Fu]

Yeah, just looking through the numbers, clearly a beat and raise report but you know, the scale at which it can be and race is impressive. Although within the third quarter numbers I did see that chips used in gaming PCs missed analyst estimates and I know that that's a shrinking part of the business or at least it's not as big a part of the business given that the data center is is where the growth is really at. Are there any flaws in this earnings report, John?

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Not really. I mean look, the gaming is becoming so unimportant for analysts that the reliability of the predictability of those numbers against which we are comparing the beat and miss for gaming is no longer as reliable. So no real flaws to really point out in this. We did see their supply commitments go up quarter over quarter and inventory is rising. I don't think that's a negative. While it might seem on the face this, that's just them gearing up and getting ready for that next wave to supply the chips in the next year.

[Paul Sweeney]

So Kujan, what's the latest from Jensen Huang about how he views China going forward?

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Nothing has changed on the China side. They still don't assume any revenues when it comes to data center AI, China GPUs or the H20 has been shipped into. They do have the clearance licenses so they could but it seems because of the geopolitical issues, China has basically been shut down for American GPU providers or providers to be able to ship in the country. There is, to be honest, no demand. So it seems, you know, because of geopolitical issues, the customers in China are not just reading and getting up to buy Nvidia chips right now.

[Scarlett Fu]

Jensen Huang said that he from his vantage point does not see anything like an AI bubble. We see something very different. And he says competitive pressures remain fairly low because this is a company with more than 90% of the market for those high end super fast AI chips. Who is the closest competitor if there is one, to Nvidia?

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Yeah, in terms of the size of the markets, the next closest competitor would be the AI ASIC chips. So Broadcom is one of the biggest providers of AI ASIC chips, namely the TPU that Google uses. Another example would be Amazon's Trainium chips which are different ASIC designer supplies. So in terms of revenues or units, in terms of the market, those are the next closest competitors within Nvidia's realm, which it sells merchant GPUs. AMD would be the second closest competitor in that.

[Scarlett Fu]

Our thanks to Kunjan Sobhani, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor Analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

We continue in the tech space.

[Scarlett Fu]

This week we heard that the tech giants Microsoft and Nvidia are committing to invest up to a combined $15 billion in the AI research and development company Anthropic.

[Paul Sweeney]

We heard the investment will be part of Anthropic next funding round. The company's also said Anthropic has committed to purchase $30 billion of computing capacity from Microsoft's Azure cloud service.

[Scarlett Fu]

So of course we had to enlist Mandeep Singh, Global tech research head at Bloomberg Intelligence.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked Mandeep to tell us a little more about Anthropic and what it does.

[Mandeep Singh]

Well, Anthropic is one of the five Frontier LLMs that are remaining. I mean, and they are leading the charge when it comes to generative AI. So it's one of the five. The other one are Google, OpenAI, Meta and XAI. And so look, when it comes to these commitments, it's pretty obvious that OpenAI has raised the bar by announcing they're going to spend 1.4 trillion. So the question is, what are the other LLM companies going to do? And Anthropic is also a pure play LLM. And in their case they don't have the funding. I mean they don't have the balance sheet like Google or Meta have. So they have to raise the money either in the private markets or from someone like Nvidia or, or get into an agreement with Microsoft which also has an agreement with OpenAI. So that's where you know, LLMs need compute. That's how you serve billion plus users and that's where you know, the numbers get bigger and bigger. When it comes to the tie ups with cloud providers.

[Scarlett Fu]

This is like the popular click in high school where everyone knows each other and everyone's messing around with each other. Just give us a little bit of background here on Anthropic because my understanding is that it was founded by folks who used to work at Open AI and some of the early investors, like big stakeholders, include Alphabet and include Amazon and now you've got Microsoft in there. I mean, is there anyone who's not part of Anthropic and not committed to investing in this company?

[Mandeep Singh]

Well, you could say Metta. They're doing things, they're doing their own thing. They're doing their own thing in terms of, you know, using the compute internally and they don't have a cloud business.

[Scarlett Fu]

Is that a problem for them that Met is out there on its own? I know it doesn't have its own cloud business, but it's not buying stakes or committed to invest up to 5 billion or 10 billion in any of these AI companies.

[Mandeep Singh]

I mean, so far, just to go to Metta, it feels like, you know, investors were okay with them using the GPU compute for their own family of apps. But the fact that they're talking about 100 billion plus in capex for next year without having a substantial ROI. And what I mean by ROI is in the case of Microsoft, yes, they are raising their capex to 120 billion, but they're winning deals like the one with anthropic, $30 billion in commitment from Anthropic. So somebody is paying for that compute. In the case of Microsoft, you don't have that with a meta. How are you generating ROI outside of your family of apps? And over there you have to show a really substantial increase in engagement to convince investors it's worth 100 billion plus in capex.

[Paul Sweeney]

Any of these open eyes anthropics, are they going to ever come public, do you think?

[Mandeep Singh]

I mean, in the case of Anthropic, look, I know the numbers are getting big, but their gross margins at this point are probably better than OpenAI which is doing too many things. I mean the biggest risk I see for OpenAI is they feel they can get into any business, whether it's chip business, whether it's, you know, obviously LLM is their turf, any type of applications and that's where there's a possibility of a misstep. You can end up wasting time because you just don't have the capability. Yeah, the focus. Whereas anthropic is more focused.

[Scarlett Fu]

Our thanks to Mandeep Singh, Global tech research head at Bloomberg Intelligence.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move next to some earnings from some of the world's largest retailers.

[Scarlett Fu]

This week Target posted a drop in third quarter sales due to intense competition and a weakening economy with shoppers pulling back on apparel and home goods.

[Paul Sweeney]

Separately, Wal Mart reported third quarter earnings that beat analysts expectations. The retailer also increased its outlook for sales in the full year. It's a sign Walmart is winning over price sensitive shoppers while digesting costs it expects to rise in the coming months.

[Scarlett Fu]

For more we are joined by Jennifer Bartashas, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst covering retail staples and packaged foods.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked Jen for her take on the most recent results at Walmart.

[Jennifer Bartashas]

You know, Walmart had another good quarter and I think that it's very easy to attribute a lot of their success to just the value seeking behavior of consumers in this environment. But I think that would also be overlooking a lot of the investments they've made in things like convenience that is really spurring the E commerce growth. And that was really a notable takeaway.

[Scarlett Fu]

Yeah, they that E commerce aspect helps draw in higher income shoppers. So it's a larger pool of customers that Wal Mart now has access to. And in our Bloomberg News reporting we indicate that the digital offerings now include luxury items like pre owned Chanel bags. I had no idea that that kind of stuff was available on Walmart.com well.

[Jennifer Bartashas]

You know, Walmart has done a lot to really expand its marketplace and that includes bringing in items that you know, will appeal to that higher income consumer. You know, and the tactic behind all of this is that the more people are integrated with E commerce in going to stores, they become sticky and they become loyal customers. So that when the macroeconomic backdrop fades, it really increases Wal Mart's ability to hang on to these customers going forward and that just drives future growth. So it's a really interesting play out of how they're applying that tactic.

[Scarlett Fu]

Jen, I also want to get your take on Wal Mart transferring its listing to the NASDAQ. That's going to happen on December 9th and that of course is to reflect its focus on being a tech forward company. But I'm wondering, I mean how much of this is really just about being included in the NASDAQ 100 and therefore the Kuku ETF oh yeah, there's certainly.

[Jennifer Bartashas]

Part of that, Scarlett, where, you know, that's, that's probably part of the motivation. I think that there is, you know, obviously there's a perception with regards to being perceived more as a tech company, which Walmart in all truthfulness has evolved into a tech company, especially amongst other retailers by being listed at Nasdaq. You know, long term maybe it helps their valuation, you know, just in terms of having that perception of being more, you know, aligned with peers. You know, Amazon is listed on Nasdaq, things like that. So I think that there's a lot of those components together combined are really behind the move.

[Paul Sweeney]

Jen, Nobody arguably has a better finger on the pulse of the consumer than Wal Mart. What are they saying these days?

[Jennifer Bartashas]

Actually they seem relatively optimistic. You know, they talk about, you know, spending holding steady for kind of that middle income consumer. High end consumers seem to be spending pretty freely. A little bit of concern about some of the lower end consumer, but it does seem to be sort of evening out. And so when they were looking forward to the holiday season, which is, you know, the most important thing with regards to the retailers that I cover, they seem cautiously optimistic that there will be a pretty good holiday season this year. We do think that they're going, people will prioritize spending on kids. That's usually what happens first if they're holding back in other parts of their budget. But all indicators right now seem that we're, we're headed towards a reasonably solid holiday season.

[Scarlett Fu]

Our thanks to Jennifer Bartashas, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst covering retail, staples and packaged food. Coming up, we'll take a look at why the global payments services provider Klarna reported record revenue in its first quarter since going public.

[Paul Sweeney]

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[Scarlett Fu]

You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via BI Go on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

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[Baillie Gifford Representative]

What is actual investing? We believe that it's a real world task to deliver thoughtful capital deployment. It's not about speculating over the short term. It's about understanding the long term opportunities for companies through technological progress or new business models. So we seek out those exploring big new ideas that will change the world. Then we back them to give those.

[Paul Sweeney]

Ideas time to flourish.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

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[Paul Sweeney]

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[Paul Sweeney]

We move next to earnings from some of the world's largest home improvement retailers.

[Scarlett Fu]

This week Lowe's reported third quarter profit that topped analysts estimates. This was a result of online sales and demand from professional contractors.

[Paul Sweeney]

Separately we heard from Home Depot who cut its full year guidance. This come as a company warned that some unsteady consumers are hitting the pause button on big ticket home purchases.

[Scarlett Fu]

So we spoke with Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence, US Homebuilding Analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

We first asked Drew to break down this week's results from Lowe's and how they compare to Home Depot's.

[Drew Redding]

So I think Lowe's results could be best characterized as better than feared, particularly in light of what we heard from Home Depot. They did fall short of consensus estimates on same store sales, but I think the buy side was probably looking for something flat to lower, so a little bit better than they were looking for. Now that being said, they did trim their full year outlook. Now they're looking for full year comp sales to be flat from flat to up 1%. So that would imply that 4Q is relatively flat. But similar to what we heard from Home depot, they had about 100 basis point impact from hurricane activity that was not replicated this year. So again, if you were to back that out, it looks like the underlying trends in the business are pretty stable. That being said, they're still grappling with the same consumer uncertainty and the same weak housing market that their competitor is. So still challenges out there in the market.

[Paul Sweeney]

Drew, I think I understand it correctly that Lowe's has a lower percentage of sales to professional contractors than does Home Depot. If so, are they trying to narrow the gap? Are they targeting that segment a little more?

[Drew Redding]

Yeah, great question so Lowe's is about 30% professional contractors, 70% DIY. Home Depot is about 50, 50, maybe even a little bit higher. On the pro front. What's interesting and to your point on investment is the pro space, especially in building products distribution, has really become a battleground among home improvement retailers. You had Home Depot recently do acquisitions for SRs and GMS and then you have Lowe's who recently acquired foundation building materials. So it's certainly an area where they're making a concerted effort to grow. Now Lowe's has historically focused on the small and medium sized pro. And what this acquisition does is it gives them exposure to larger pros who do more complex projects. So they're able to be the supplier of choice across more building product categories and at a larger scale.

[Scarlett Fu]

So basically directly competing with Home Depot in many ways, is this going to become a duopoly or are there still a lot of other places that professional contractors can go to?

[Drew Redding]

Yes, the building products distribution space is still very highly fragmented. You know, I wouldn't be surprised to see further consolidation within the industry, you know, across different categories. Home Depot and Lowe's are certainly, you know, two of the behemoths in the industry who have, you know, the scale and financial flexibility to further consolidate the industry. But there's some other players as well, like, like qxo. So it is a fragmented industry, but I would expect, you know, in the coming years it's something that continues to get consolidated.

[Paul Sweeney]

I can't keep track of where all the tariffs are these days on all the different products, but I'm just guessing if I'm a Lowe's or Home Depot, my plywood from Canada that's probably being tariffed a power tool from somewhere in Asia that's probably subject to tariffs. How are these companies dealing with it? What have they been telling you guys?

[Drew Redding]

So Lowe's gets about 60% of its products from the US so their exposure internationally is maybe not as high as you would expect. China's probably around 15 to 20%. You know, there hasn't been a whole lot of talk. I think we have seen their average ticket increase this quarter was up about 3%. And part of that is in response to tariff related price increases. Lowe's told us that there were only modest increases. And you know, they'll take a portfolio approach to how they increase prices. They'll look at their, their product lineup and see where they have more elasticity. But I think the impact of cost will start to come in a little greater as we look into Q4 and early 2026. And you know, some of the areas that we're looking at. You mentioned plywood, so lumber tariffs from Canada. We also had the implementation of tariffs on cabinetry, both kitchen and bath, which could go up to 50% in January. So I do think that the impact gets a little greater as we look into next year. So I would expect further, further price increases from both retailers.

[Scarlett Fu]

Our thanks to Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence US Homebuilding analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move next to third quarter earnings from the global payment services provider Klarna.

[Scarlett Fu]

This week Klarna reported record revenue that beat analysts estimates on Wall Street. The firm also set aside more provisions for credit losses, losses in its first set of earnings since going public.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more, I was joined by Anthony Hughes, Bloomberg Equity Capital Markets reporter. I first asked Anthony to talk to us about Klarna's most recent results.

[Anthony Hughes]

Yeah, well, Klarna is a company that's actually been around for about two decades. It's just that since about 2019, they've really expanded quickly in the US and buy now Pay later is a lending payments product which basically allows people to buy products and obviously pay for them over time. And this is an alternative to the credit card in a credit card option. So really a lot of Klarna's growth really reflects the fact that this product is becoming more popular relative to credit cards. And for a lot of consumers it's a good way to manage your cash flow. And you know, you obviously buy a product and not have to pay for it over time. And that suits a lot of people. And it is a fast growing part of the fintech or say consumer lending space.

[Paul Sweeney]

So as a consumer, how does Klarna make money? On my $100 purchase that I put on their system. Yeah, well, they charge me interest.

[Anthony Hughes]

No, well, there's a number of different products that some of the longer term lending products do have interest associated with them but that pay in for product they talk about which is paying in four installments over a few months. That is an interest free product. And really the source of revenue in that instance is from the merchant. And merchants pay a merchant service fee. It's higher for them. It's higher than they pay on a credit card transaction. But basically they see the benefit of Klarna bringing in extra customers so they can sell more product. And people will ask themselves, well, who actually pays the merchant service fee? Well, the merchant does pay that to Klarna, but the merchant does incorporate that as a cost of doing business into the products that he sells to you. And I so in a sense we all pay for the fees that are hidden within the, the payment system and really merchants pass on to the consumer depending on how you pay.

[Paul Sweeney]

The interesting you pay for your product. Who's a typical Klarna consumer out there? Like what, what's and what's kind of a typical transaction for a buy now?

[Anthony Hughes]

Yeah, well these are mainly small transactions of you know, can be a few hundred dollars or you know, not, not, not large transactions. And, and you know this obviously suits a younger audience and that's where a lot of the, in a lot of their customer bases come from. But they've built a large business which globally has something like 110 billion of what they call gross merchandise volume. And that's, you know, it's a fast growing business in the US it's been growing pretty fast for them 40, 50% in this recent quarter. And obviously there's a couple of other companies that are in this area as well. So it's a competitive area as well with Affirm, which is another company went public perhaps about five years ago.

[Scarlett Fu]

That was Anthony Hughes, Bloomberg Equity Capital Markets reporter.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move to some news in the biotech space.

[Scarlett Fu]

This week we heard that the Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk will be further lowering the prices of its obesity drugs for cash paying patients.

[Paul Sweeney]

It's in an effort to claw back a larger share of the US market from arch rival Eli Lilly. Novo said introductory doses of its blockbuster drugs Wegovy and Ozempic will be available for $199 a month.

[Scarlett Fu]

That price applies to the first two months of treatment. After that, Novo will offer the drugs through its Novocare Direct to consumer portal for $349 a month. That is 30% less than the current self pay price for more.

[Paul Sweeney]

We were joined by Michael Shaw, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior pharma biotech analyst. We first asked Michael to break down what exactly Novo Nordisk is doing.

[Michael Shaw]

And this is obviously ahead of the White House deal. So you're seeing starting doses being reduced to $200 per month and then doses thereafter being charged an average of $350 per month compared to $500 previously. Those prices kind of align to the pricing in the White House statement coming from Trump Rx. But compared to Lilly, I mean they're undercutting them by about $100 at each dose. And this is basically a ploy to basically compete for new patient starts. As we know, Lilly's got the more effective product in terms of weight loss profile and they're also executing better on the launches and I think that's clear from 3Q results where we saw contrasting fortunes between those two particular drug makers.

[Paul Sweeney]

Mikey, give us a sense of this marketplace here. What percentage of the addressable market is actually taking these obesity drugs versus because it seems like as the price comes down, more and more people will be able to get access to them.

[Michael Shaw]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean it's a highly price sensitive market. When we look at penetration rates in the U.S. you know, low single digits, that's obviously going to accelerate as these drugs become cheaper. Looking outside the US penetration rate, you know, rates are even lower. So there's, you know, still significant kind of, you know, patient Runway out there in terms of U.S. penetration. I mean, the White House pricing deal on GLP1 drugs, you know, supports kind of use of these, these GLP1 drugs in Medicare. You know, there we think that it can unlock, you know, 7 to 8 million patients. According to a White House statement. I think they said 10% of Medicare beneficiaries would become eligible for GLP1 drugs based on the pilot program in that's going to be introduced in 26 and I think it's going to become mandatory in 27. And then they've also lowered the price in Medicaid too. I think the uplift in terms of patients there is a bit harder to deduce or, or to kind of model given that, you know, coverage is going to be on a, on a state by state basis and there's also kind of different qualifying criteria which is again state dependent.

[Scarlett Fu]

What does this mean, Michael, for the companies like Hims and hers, the companies that make compounded copycat versions of these anti obesity drugs? They've done very well and I know the stock for him and hers has been kind of all over the place, but it is modestly higher from where it was at the start of the year.

[Michael Shaw]

Yeah, I mean I think that whole, you know, the compounding situation, I believe that, you know, 1.2 million patients are on compounding GLP1 at the moment. That's based on kind of comments and novo made during their 3Q results. Obviously lowering down the price would kind of have. The branded treatments would basically. Well, I mean it would lessen the delta between copycats and branded treatments. So I guess it's a negative for these compounded GLP1 drug makers.

[Paul Sweeney]

Mikey, when I look at the big cap pharma names, is it as simple as I want to own the ones with exposure to obesity market and not own the ones that don't? Because I'm looking at your, your Slate of stocks and you either up 30% or you're down.

[Michael Shaw]

Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, there's a few large pharma names which have, which have entered the space. You know, in the recent years you've seen kind of deals with Roche and Zeeland for an Amlin drug. Most recently you've obviously got the Pfizer, Metcera M and A deal. Yeah, I mean, I think obesity is obviously appealing given, you know, the size of the target population, how under penetrated it currently is. And you know, if you're looking to, you know, offset patent expirations later in the decade, you know, there's an abundance of kind of GLP on products out there as well as other assets too. So I think that's the appeal of the space. It's a large market, it's underpenetrated and there's high demand for these treatments too.

[Scarlett Fu]

I mentioned M and A and of course we know that J and J is making a purchase to increase its pipeline to get away from relying on these older drugs that have lost patent protection. Is every pharma company doing the same thing as that? You know, they're not only strategy, but is that the way they move forward? Is there anyone who's kind of like in a good position and doesn't need to make a deal?

[Michael Shaw]

I mean, I think that's always been part of the large pharma model. They supplement kind of in house innovation with external innovation, particularly if they want to get into areas perhaps outside of their core competency. But I mean, I think that's just the model in general. Biotech's always been the pipeline for, for large pharma companies or at least help bulk up that pipeline.

[Scarlett Fu]

Our thanks to Michael Shaw, Bloomberg Intelligence senior pharma biotech analyst. Coming up, a look at why the Global sports company AmeriSports raised its full year guidance.

[Paul Sweeney]

You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio providing in depth research and data on 2000 companies and 130 industries.

[Scarlett Fu]

You can access Bloomberg Intelligence through Big Go on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Paul Sweeney and this is Bloomberg.

[Scarlett Fu]

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[Paul Sweeney]

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[Bloomberg Host]

This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.

[Paul Sweeney]

We move next to earnings from the department store tjx.

[Scarlett Fu]

The off price retailer reported third quarter sales that beat analysts estimates. It also raised its guidance for comparable sales this year.

[Paul Sweeney]

It's a sign that US shoppers are turning to cheaper options as the economy shows signs of stress. For more, we were joined by Mary Ross Gilbert, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Equity analyst.

[Scarlett Fu]

We began by asking Mary for her take on this week's results and whether she is a fan of tjx.

[Mary Ross Gilbert]

I'm a fan too and it's because they carry such a variety of brands and it appeals to all income groups. So if you have a luxury consumer, you can get Balenciaga, you can get Chloe Low, so they carry all of the brands and then if you're more oppressed and you're really a value consumer, they have Steve Madden, they have Theory, so they really, they have Puma, they have Nike Adidas, so they have all the brands that consumers want and that's why their Marmax, which is TJ Maxx and Marshall's division, reported a comp sal sales increase of 6%. So and that's why, you know, if you look at the overall results, they were up 5%. So a lot of strength there within the Marmax, HomeGoods and of course Canada, Canada was up 8%. So we're seeing consumers flock to get the, the brands that they want and they've had some amazing buying opportunities. So their margins were higher.

[Scarlett Fu]

So the way that TJX stocks its stores is that they get inventory that hasn't sold at full price stores. But if all these merchants, all these retailers are managing their inventories better and don't have a lot of excess inventory, where does TJ X get its inventory? I Mean it has to have another option, right?

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah.

[Mary Ross Gilbert]

Scarlett, you raise a good question. But the fact is, is that some of the retailers, but also the brands themselves. So if you think of for example, pvh, which has the Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein brands, we see those brands pretty prevalent throughout off price. So that's been a good channel for them to sort of release some of that excess inventory and when they work with some of their wholesale partners, including the department stores. So where you have product that's not selling off price is just a natural fit to be able to release that inventory. So you want to keep your inventory fresh in the stores, especially when you're a full price operator. And there hasn't been any slowdown in terms of that excess inventory. And that's why even on the luxury side, where typically you wouldn't think you'd find markdowns, it's been pretty prevalent, especially with overall weakness in luxury.

[Paul Sweeney]

So what is the folks at TJ Maxx, what are they saying about the consumer these days?

[Mary Ross Gilbert]

Well, the consumer, I mean, they're really seeing strength. So it's interesting because when you sort of read the take on Target with their results and they sort of cited, you know, the consumer is very cautious but that caution, I think what's really going on is that they've got the brands that consumers want. So those that are executing are the ones that are getting the sales. Because even some retailers that are more full price oriented are generating sales or they may be promotional. So the consumer is flocking to value, there's no doubt about it. But we do see some, you know, operators, you've got Ralph Lauren on the luxury side, they continue to outperform and their sales are always topping expectations too. And consumers there are willing to pay full price. So there are a lot less promotional. Every year they seem to be less promotional. For that reason they're able to sell at full price.

[Scarlett Fu]

So clearly TJX has a strategy that works well. Given the current environment. And even when the economy is doing well, I would argue it has a strategy that works well. At what point do investors want more from the company than just executing on the strategy? Will they want, I don't know, M and A? Do they want consolidation? Do they want innovation from tjx?

[Mary Ross Gilbert]

Yeah, well, so that's the reason why TGX is so focused, you know, internationally. So they're going to be entering Spain in 2026, so coming next year. And of course they've had some. They have two joint venture investments, one in Mexico and then one in the Middle east and they're both off price retailers that they've invested in. So they're basically taking their talent and providing them a platform to leverage their talent in these joint ventures and to grow that way. So they're always looking for ways because Scarlett, you bring up a good point. TJX trades at a pretty high premium in the off price space and generally it's a pretty big premium that is due to their very consistent execution. But you're right, consumers keep wondering, well, how can they keep growing on top of all this growth? And yet they keep doing it. But as they talk about look, they have drops several times a week. There's not a lot of retailers that offer fresh merchandise several times a week and they curate the merchandise by locations. So they're very cognizant of the demographics for each location.

[Paul Sweeney]

Our thanks to Mary Ross Gilbert, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Equity Analyst.

[Scarlett Fu]

We move next to news from the global sports company Amer Sports.

[Paul Sweeney]

This week the company raised its four year guidance for the third time this year. That's after strong demand for its Salomon footwear drove quarterly sales to a record.

[Scarlett Fu]

Sales growth at the group's other two units, including the technical apparel segment and the ball and racket sports unit also surpassed estimates and overall group sales. They hit a new high.

[Paul Sweeney]

For more, we were joined by Abigail Gilmartin, Bloomberg Intelligence athleisure and footwear analyst on Amherst Sports earnings. We first asked Abigail to break down Amherst Sports most recent earnings report.

[Bloomberg Host]

They did really well. You know, sales up 30%, broad based strength across regions, across channels and across brands. I think the key thing people are looking for was China. Arc Teryx recently had some controversy in China with fireworks display in the Himalayas. That fireworks display.

[Paul Sweeney]

Who displayed fireworks in the Himalayas?

[Bloomberg Host]

Arc Teryx for set off fireworks. Why exactly? It was definitely a misstep for an outdoor brand that's really focused on sustainability. And there was definitely something, some concern that there would be a little backlash in China. There's definitely a lot of people upset about it and they were fined by the Chinese government and working to restore the ecology there. But greater China was up 47%. Momentum is continuing into 4Q. So I think that was really a big takeaway. Just quelling investors concerns about potential backlash in China, especially because they're the number one outdoor sports brand in China.

[Scarlett Fu]

So I had no idea that they have such strong brands. I mean Amerisports on its own is kind of, it doesn't, it's not memorable the name, the parent company name. Right. But the brands of course are Solomon, Arc Terex Wilson, as you mentioned, what does the tariff picture look like for this company?

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah, I think it's very similar to most of the other companies. I think for them what benefits them is their premium positioning. They're able to raise prices and they're not seeing any backlash from customers, consumers or pullback. They're still seeing very strong full price sell through. So they're able to offset some of those tariff costs with that which I think is really helping. And we're seeing that with a lot of more of the premium brands are able to kind of navigate through the tariffs since their consumers are willing to.

[Scarlett Fu]

Pay upper K. Upper K of the K shaped economy I guess.

[Paul Sweeney]

I know it's, that's, I guess where you want to be there. Talk to us about the footwear market here. I think you know, Nike, Adidas, all that kind of stuff. What's going on there?

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah, I think, you know, we're in store for a very interesting holiday season. I think that we're going to continue to see the premium brands continue to do well on holdings recently just reported and did phenomenal and they also said they're not seeing any backlash on raised prices and they'll continue to do, you know, limited discounting through the holidays. So we may see some differences between, between the two companies. But we just had our recent buy survey and Nike continues to lead. I think there's been concerns over Nike but they still are the major shareholder and still the favorite brand of Millennials. Gen Z is everyone for the holidays. So they should continue to do well too.

[Scarlett Fu]

What is Amerisports distribution strategy? Do they have a DTC offering or are they going through third party retailers?

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah, that's a great question. So it's a little different for each brand. For Arc Teryx they're leaning a lot more into DTC. They've changed their distribution strategy from basically 80% wholesale to 80 DTC over the last three years. And they're really focusing on growing their store base because I think not a lot of people know about arc'. Teryx. It's really going to help the brand awareness. So in Even in the US they're looking to double their store count by 2030. So that's that. Through Solomon continues to be wholesale, especially for footwear. We're seeing this holiday season consumers strapped for cash. They're wanting to go into the stores and try on their shoes and make sure it's the right fit and buy them versus, you know, buy five pairs and return them. Yeah. So the Wholesale distribution for Salomon is really key. And they're in a lot of key premium partners, I would say. And you know, the running specialty stores as well.

[Paul Sweeney]

I mean, I'm looking at your report here, research report on the sneaker business. I didn't know there were so many shoe manufacturers. I mean, Nike is the dominant one, as you said. But there's like 14 in your survey.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah, yeah.

[Paul Sweeney]

That's a competitive marketplace.

[Bloomberg Host]

Definitely. It's getting even more competitive as consumers with AI technology. You know, there's just such more of a breadth of discovery. So that's where product is really coming into play this holiday season. Season, I think. You know, the innovation, product and style.

[Scarlett Fu]

Abigail, if there's one thing to be worried about when it comes to amerisports, what would it be? I mean, what's an area that they're not executing on?

[Bloomberg Host]

So I think the China thing was the one uncertainty for this quarter that we were definitely. It could have gone either way, so that would be the biggest thing. But honestly, they're executing on most of their things. Their biggest drivers are dtc, women's and China, and all of those were up double digits and more. And they're really gaining share in women's, which I think is a big new opportunity for them as more women join the outdoor market.

[Paul Sweeney]

All right, which have you purchased in the last 12 months? Sneaker brands for baby boomers. Skechers.

[Scarlett Fu]

Yeah. What.

[Drew Redding]

What is that?

[Bloomberg Host]

Honestly, they're so comfortable. They're like, like the price point, the quality. I know, I know, I know, I know. But you'd be.

[Scarlett Fu]

That is not something that they market out there, that they put out there.

[Bloomberg Host]

No, they're the third largest footwear brand globally.

[Scarlett Fu]

Really?

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah, I think right behind Adidas.

[Scarlett Fu]

Next you're going to tell me that, you know, the boomers are using the shoes with the little wheel in the back of the.

[Paul Sweeney]

No, the wheels. The wheels, yeah.

[Bloomberg Host]

No, they're doing the step ins. You don't even have to bend down for your shoelace. That's it.

[Paul Sweeney]

That's what I think it is. Okay. I think you're right.

[Anthony Hughes]

All right.

[Bloomberg Host]

I mean.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yeah, there you go. I mean, the kids, the Gen Z, the millennials, they're still in that Nike brand. Nike brand, still.

[Scarlett Fu]

And Adidas or Hokas.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah, Hoka and on are gaining, but they're, you know, they're still small. And I think people don't realize that just because there's been such a big boom, they're still very like West coast, east coast oriented, you know, they still have a lot more room to grow brand awareness in the US Especially in the middle of America.

[Scarlett Fu]

That was Abigail Gilbarn, Bloomberg Intelligence Athleisure and Footwear Analyst.

[Paul Sweeney]

That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on 2,000 companies and 130 industries.

[Scarlett Fu]

And remember, you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via by go on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Fu.

[Paul Sweeney]

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