Bloomberg Intelligence – BI Weekend: Oracle, Cracker Barrel Earnings, FDA Probe (December 12, 2025)

Episode Overview

Hosts Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney guide listeners through the major financial headlines of the week, leveraging the research power of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. The episode focuses on:

• Results of a major survey on AI’s impact across industries
• The FDA’s investigation into Covid-19 vaccine safety and its implications for pharmaceutical companies
• Oracle’s disappointing cloud earnings and the knock-on effects for AI investment
• Leadership succession and strategic shifts at Berkshire Hathaway
• Cracker Barrel’s sales challenges in the wake of a branding controversy
• Campbell’s holiday-boosted earnings and the pressure of private-label competition
• The changing landscape of U.S. biofuels under new policy

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. AI’s Cross-Industry Disruption Survey

[Segment starts ~07:00]
Guest: Matthew Bloxham, Bloomberg Intelligence Tech Analyst

• Survey Scope:
  – 604 C-suite executives across diverse industries
  – Assessed corporate AI investment motivations, expected impacts on headcount, and profit/revenue outlook

• Findings:
  – AI is a strategic priority for 36% (top) and another 47% (top-three priority)
  – Main AI objectives:
  Operational efficiency (47% of respondents)
  Revenue growth (21%)
  Headcount cuts are a low priority (only 13% see it as top priority)
  – “Companies are looking to boost productivity, but they're not afraid to make investments both in technology and headcount in the near term.” – Matthew Bloxham [10:00]
  – 62% expect AI to increase headcount by an average of 4% over three years

• ROI & Roadblocks:
  – ROI for AI investments remains unclear, with “investment needed in AI and the question marks around the return on investment definitely up there amongst some of the most important concerns,” Bloxham noted [12:50]
  – Companies are mostly in early trial/pilot phases for AI

• Quote:
  “That kind of flies in the face a little bit of a lot of the kind of headlines we see about job cuts. I think overall corporates see the need to invest more in staff to roll out that AI strategies in the coming years.” – Matthew Bloxham [11:30]

2. FDA Probe into Covid-19 Vaccine Safety

[Segment starts ~17:30]
Guest: Sam Fazeli, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of Research, Global Industries & Senior Pharmaceuticals Analyst

• FDA Investigation:
  – The FDA is reviewing reports of deaths in adults potentially connected to Covid-19 vaccines
  – Data so far comes from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which is voluntary and subject to reporting flaws
  – “We don't know anything. Right. Last week we heard that they've got data that shows that there were 10 children's deaths. Where's the data? Show us. … Show us, where's the transparency?” – Sam Fazeli [18:15]
  – Fazeli calls for rigorous transparency and data scrutiny

• Sector Impacts:
  – Possible outcomes:

  • No link found, and the investigation closes
  • Black box warning added to vaccines, possibly increasing public hesitancy
  • (Highly unlikely) Removal of Covid vaccines from market

• Company Vulnerability:
  – Moderna and BioNTech most exposed among major producers; Moderna has a smaller cash cushion
  – “I'm actually surprised in hindsight that maybe this management team kept their jobs there. I mean, this was a real self inflicted wound there.” – Sam Fazeli [21:00]

• Industry Environment with New FDA Leadership:
  – Uncertainty and “headbutting” with new Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but sector still thriving with strong fundraising

• Key to Success in 2026:
  – “It's always been the same: clinical data. Get me a drug that's showing me clean data. … Present the data, take it to medical conferences.” – Sam Fazeli [23:45]

3. Oracle’s Disappointing Earnings & AI Cloud Backlog

[Segment starts ~27:00]
Guest: Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analyst

• Earnings Recap:
  – Oracle’s cloud infrastructure growth was 66% (vs. 69% consensus); even a 1% miss is significant for Wall Street
  – Growth bottlenecked by capacity constraints (data center, networking, power)

• AI & Backlog Issues:
  – Oracle has $500B in backlog, with over $300B tied to contracts with OpenAI
  – OpenAI’s revenue run-rate is ~$20B, leading to skepticism over scale of commitments:
  “So everybody is saying that, okay, well tell me if you have revenue of 20 billion, how, how are you going to spend 300 billion just with Oracle?” – Anurag Rana [29:40]

• Strategic Needs & Next Steps:
  – To turn backlog into revenue, Oracle needs new data centers – may require a special purpose vehicle with private capital to keep debt off balance sheet

• OpenAI Revenue Streams:
  – Consumer apps with paid subscriptions; enterprise API usage

4. Berkshire Hathaway’s Leadership Changes

[Segment starts ~35:30]
Guest: Matthew Palazzola, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior P&C Insurance Analyst

• Key Moves:
  – Retirement of CFO Mark Hamburg
  – Investment deputy & GEICO CEO Todd Combs moves to JPMorgan (advising Jamie Dimon, et al.)

• Significance:
  – Some view Combs’s exit as an “unwelcome shake up” ahead of Warren Buffett’s retirement

• General Counsel Role:
  – New in-house legal position, centralizing legal strategy across the conglomerate

• Street Sentiment:
  – Concerns about the loss of Buffett and Ajit Jain (insurance division head), who has been selling stock and is key to Berkshire’s insurance prowess
  – Hopeful that Abel, Buffett’s successor, brings a fresh, possibly more aggressive take on capital allocation
  – “Maybe his strength is he's not Buffett, while his weaknesses he's not Buffett also… perhaps he takes a different look at capital allocation.” – Matthew Palazzola [38:50]

5. Cracker Barrel’s Guidance Cut After Brand Crisis

[Segment starts ~41:00]
Guest: Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Restaurant and Food Service Analyst

• Earnings Recap:
  – Fiscal Q1 guidance for sales and EBITDA was cut due to traffic declines post-logo-change controversy
  – Traffic now steady at -10/-11%; outlook is mixed—’no improvement’ scenario considered conservative
  – Key focus: regaining customer trust, menu innovation, operational improvements

• Remodel & CapEx Changes:
  – Larger-scale remodeling (along with controversial logo) is being scaled back; focus now on smaller refreshes
  – “The capex change is probably…the lowered capex is probably smart. They're going to continue to refresh their stores…improve floors where they need to…things of that nature that nobody's going to get up in arms over.” – Michael Halen [43:40]

• CEO Job Security:
  – Proxy fight to remove CEO Julie Masino failed—her earlier track record “showing some pretty good progress up until August”

6. Campbell’s Holiday Beat & CPG Industry Outlook

[Segment starts ~47:30]
Guest: Diana Rosero Pena, Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer Staples Analyst

• Earnings Highlights:
  – Campbell’s Q1 earnings beat thanks to retailer holiday inventory build
  – Meals & Beverages: challenges for ready-to-serve soups and V8; broths/condensed soups rebounding
  – Snacks: “Salty snacks challenged by health trends, but cookies outperforming—so, salad with fries moment.” – Diana Rosero Pena [49:40]

• Strategic Moves:
  – Campbell’s acquiring 49% of La Regina (supplier for Rao’s sauces) to offset tariffs and assure supply chain reliability

• Brand Image Concern:
  – Recent controversy after an executive’s disparaging comments; company quickly distanced itself, unlikely to be a major headwind

• 2026 Outlook & Private Label Threat:
  – Volume growth could improve second-half 2026, but profitability is challenged by tariffs, costs, and need for marketing
  – Private label competition continues; companies must win on shelf location and branding

7. U.S. Biofuels Policy Shake-up

[Segment starts ~56:50]
Guest: Anna Davies, Bloomberg BNEF Head of Renewable Fuels

• Domestic Boom and Import Bust:
  – U.S. imported 800M gallons of biodiesel last year, now on track to import just 10% of that
  – “Policy, policy, policy” – new domestic-only U.S. tax credits and aggressive EPA blending mandates fueling the shift

• Production Trends:
  – Rapid expansion of U.S. capacity (repurposing old oil refineries for biofuels production)
  – New Clean Fuel Producers credit (45Z) only benefits domestically made fuel, not imports

• Global Context:
  – U.S. incentives now less favorable than in the past; EU/UK and Singapore moving forward on mandates for sustainable aviation fuels
  – China rapidly building capacity; global market flows changing

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “AI is very much at the top of the C-suite agenda. Something like 36% of those polled said it was their top strategic priority and another 47% said it was within the top three…”
  — Matthew Bloxham [09:15]

• “We don't know anything. … Show us, where's the transparency?”
  — Sam Fazeli on the FDA’s vaccine probe [18:15]

• “So everybody is saying that, okay, well tell me if you have revenue of 20 billion, how, how are you going to spend 300 billion just with Oracle?”
  — Anurag Rana [29:40]

• “Maybe his strength is he's not Buffett, while his weakness is he's not Buffett also, but his strength is he doesn't have to do things the same way.”
  — Matthew Palazzola [38:50]

• “The capex change is probably…the lowered capex is probably smart…improve floors where they need to…things of that nature that nobody's going to get up in arms over.”
  — Michael Halen [43:40]

• “Policy, policy, policy. The main reason biofuels get off the ground anywhere is due to policy, because otherwise they wouldn't. The economics on their own don't work.”
  — Anna Davies [57:50]

Segment Timestamps

• AI Disruption Survey – 07:00–15:00
• FDA Covid-19 Vaccine Probe – 17:30–25:00
• Oracle Earnings and the AI Cloud Backlog – 27:00–33:00
• Berkshire Hathaway’s Succession & Strategy – 35:30–40:30
• Cracker Barrel’s Branding Crisis & Outlook – 41:00–45:00
• Campbell’s Earnings & 2026 Packaged Food Outlook – 47:30–55:00
• U.S. Biofuels: Policy and Market Shift – 56:50–End

Tone & Language

The discussion maintains a brisk, data-driven, and sometimes lightly humorous tone (“salad with fries moment” [49:40]), characteristic of Bloomberg’s financial journalism. Analyst guests provide candid, sometimes blunt, assessments—particularly around policy transparency and strategic missteps.

Summary Takeaway

This episode delivers a detailed look into how major players and sectors are evolving amid rapid technological advances, regulatory resets, and business-model inflection points. Listeners gain an informed pulse check on AI, market-leading corporates, CPGs, biotech, and the intersection of policy and growth across critical industries.