Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode: BI Weekend: Oracle, Kohl’s Earnings, CERAWeek
Date: March 14, 2025
Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Alix Steel
Main Focus: Deep dives into Oracle's earnings, energy-sector demand and strategy from the CERAWeek conference, pharmaceutical volatility with Novo Nordisk, and retail challenges highlighted by Kohl’s.

Overview

This episode brings Bloomberg Intelligence’s trademark market analysis to a packed agenda. Hosts Paul Sweeney and Alix Steel examine Oracle’s latest earnings and future outlook, unpack key conversations from the CERAWeek energy conference—including exclusive interviews with energy CEOs—analyze Novo Nordisk’s pharmaceutical performance, and scrutinize Kohl’s attempts at retail turnaround amid consumer headwinds.

Oracle Earnings: Growth, Doubts, and CapEx Concerns

Segment Timestamps: 02:20 – 04:51
Guest: Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analyst

Key Points

• Oracle shares dropped after sales and profit forecasts missed expectations; attributed mainly to supply challenges, especially in data center expansion. (02:23)
• Strong bookings announced: Booked contracts (“remaining performance obligations”) surged 63% to $230 billion, with projected sales growth for FY26 and FY27 at 15% and 20%, respectively. (02:39)
  • Anurag Rana:

    “I’m to be honest, a bit surprised about the stock reaction because the company gave two or three really interesting nuggets… very large bookings… spiked up 63%.” (02:39)

• Market skepticism endures over the sustainability of future cloud growth, especially considering competitive pressure from Chinese upstart “Deep Seq”—potentially undermining AI margin assumptions and capital spending projections. (03:24)
  • “One reason for the stock selling off… could be… does this trade continue…? That’s really why people may be skeptical that that 20% growth… is dependable.” (03:36)
• Margin pressure expected: Oracle’s capital expenditures (CapEx) are set to jump to $20B, with Anurag predicting a 100-to-200 basis point margin reduction, a concern not fully reflected in consensus estimates.
  • “We think margin is going to be dented by 100 to 200 basis points next year. Consensus doesn’t have that figured in their outlook at this point.” (04:16)

CERAWeek Energy Conference: Power Demand & Grid Innovation

Power Demand Drivers and New Electricity Markets

Segment Timestamps: 04:54 – 13:32
Interviewee: Larry Coben, CEO, NRG Energy

Highlights

• Rising power demand driven by data centers, electric vehicles, IoT, and onshoring manufacturing. Texas and PJM (Northeast) cited as primary growth regions; Texas with friendlier permitting and a consolidated regulatory landscape is prioritized. (05:22, 06:15)
  • “It’s also onshoring of manufacturing… electric cars… People are just using more electricity in ways they never did before.” (05:22)
• Data centers and AI will intensify demand growth; Coben is confident “the hype won’t fall short. It may even go up.” (07:05)
• NRG’s strategy is to sign long-term, fixed-price contracts with hyperscalers (e.g., cloud giants), avoiding spot-market (merchant) risk to ensure stable growth regardless of demand fluctuations.
  • “We actually like to protect our downside and give ourselves a lot of optionality to the upside so that we don’t have to care whether the growth is 2% or 10%. Both of those are ginormous for us.” (08:08)
• Renewable integration continues: Renewables now represent 30% of NRG’s annual earnings and 20% market share. The company focuses on contracts for renewables rather than outright ownership, responding to customer demand for “green electrons.” (09:42, 09:51)
• Complexity of new data center deals is noted—requiring detailed site-specific agreements on interconnection, construction, and turbine supply given the unique needs of AI-powered centers. (12:32)
  • “For this type of data center is new… There aren’t a lot of AI data centers out there yet. But it’s complicated.” (12:32)
• Hyperscalers are described as “knocking on [NRG’s] door,” signaling an imminent wave of long-term energy contracts. (13:23)

GE Vernova: Grid Expansion, Gas, Wind, and Investment

Segment Timestamps: 21:00 – 28:00
Interviewee: Scott Strazik, CEO, GE Vernova

Highlights

• Huge backlog ($73B) mostly driven by gas turbines, transformers, switchgear—transformers being key for plugging wind/solar into the grid as AI and data demand surges. (21:47, 21:59, 25:36)
  • “A lot of these trends, whether it be AI, whether it be the electrification of these industries, it’s really just starting.” (21:15)
• AI-driven demand is still in infancy; only a small portion (~15%) of global data center capacity is directly AI-related, but it’s growing. (21:59)
• Firm contracting dominates for major equipment: “We’re very firm in contract… through 2027 into 2028… I would expect by the end of the summer we’ll be largely sold out through the end of 2028.” (23:03)
• Biggest operational challenge: adding 1,500+ workers in the US, scaling equipment output, and executing $600 million+ in plant investments—all crucial in the next two years.
  • “We’ve got to add over 1500 employees…over 500 heavy duty pieces of machinery…between now and, let’s say, the fourth of July of next year.” (24:04)
• Wind remains integral, not for sale despite market headwinds. GE focuses on upgrading (“repowering”) installed turbines for efficiency, with “all-of-the-above” tech philosophy. (24:48)
• Grid modernization is non-negotiable; transformer business (over $20B backlog) is where AI/data center demand is felt most immediately. (25:55)
• North American focus will grow, but global growth remains critical:
  • “It’s a great time to invest in the US… We’re very bullish… but that’s not the end, that’s just the beginning as we continue to serve this market.” (27:03, 27:40)

Constellation Energy: Nuclear, M&A, and Decarbonization

Segment Timestamps: 37:22 – 43:30
Interviewee: Joe Dominguez, CEO, Constellation Energy

Highlights

• Stable power demand: No recession or demand drop-off seen. Hyperscalers are more targeted, but pace of contract negotiations holds steady. (37:59)
• Long-term nuclear contracts are complex but attractive to tech firms for “24/7, clean, reliable” energy—exemplified by the landmark Microsoft deal to restart Three Mile Island. (38:57, 39:09)
• Costs modestly up, mainly from labor inflation, but with minimal exposure to new construction/raw material volatility; Constellation’s nuclear deals take on this risk for up to 20-year terms. (39:20, 39:53)
  • “There’s no reopeners up or down for those sorts of inflation… we’re taking it on for over a 20 year period. And that’s the importance of being able to do this with nuclear.” (39:53)
• Capex focus is 90% on maintaining/extending life of existing nuclear fleet; major upgrades and restarts are prioritized over building “new” capacity. (40:47)
• Broad M&A strategy: Recently acquired Calpine, reducing nuclear from 70% to 50% of total portfolio, and signal further interest in natural gas and storage. (42:13, 42:24)
  • “M and A is a big part of our strategy… I think storage is going to increasingly be a part of the story.” (42:48)
• Power is now a “hot” sector with increased competition for contract deals among utilities and energy firms, but most new build is tied to firm demand. (43:06)
  • “I don’t see people building spec power plants hoping… the demand will come. So I think there is going to be a lot of interest there, but it’s largely going to be fossil.” (43:06)

Pharma Check-In: Novo Nordisk's Cagrisema Setback

Segment Timestamps: 16:03 – 20:41
Guest: Sam Fazeli, Director of Research, Bloomberg Intelligence & Senior Pharma Analyst

Key Points

• Novo Nordisk shares fell sharply after trial results for new obesity/diabetes drug Cagrisema showed only moderate weight loss:
  • “15.7% is what they lost in this 68 week trial… that falls down to 12.6% [vs. placebo]. It’s not a big number. Therefore people are upset.” (16:29)
• Results roughly match Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide, suggesting competitive parity rather than superiority. Novo may have overpromised on efficacy expectations. (16:29)
• Market frustration with obesity drug volatility and underperformance.
• Inflation Reduction Act (IRA):
  • Appears manageable for large pharma; capped drug price negotiations anticipated as “within realms to be able to cope,” including for Novo's Wegovy. (17:46)
  • “The IRA isn't that bad for the pharma industry.” (17:46)
• “Compounded” weight loss drugs: Made in pharmacies from the active ingredient; their safety and efficacy are uncertain, and FDA may limit them as branded supply constraints ease. (18:39)
  • “Companies buy Active from somebody… How safe are they? Who knows? No one’s done trials on them.” (18:44)
• Novo pipeline future:
  • If Cagrisema is approved, it will compete on a par with Lilly’s offerings; innovation race continues with triple-therapy drugs in the works. (19:51)

Retail: Kohl’s Struggles to Regain Footing

Segment Timestamps: 32:13 – 37:18
Guest: Mary Ross Gilbert, BI Senior Equity Analyst covering retail

Key Points

• Kohl’s forecasts another tough year with expected comparable sales down 5-7%. Fourth quarter comps were -6.7%. (32:18)
• Sophora beauty business is the standout (+13% comps), but most apparel and other segments are in double-digit decline; overall revenue shrinkage a major concern.
  • “Meanwhile, they lost about 3 billion in revenues… We’re looking for further declines this year. So that’s… really concerning.” (32:34)
• New CEO, Ashley Buchanan (third in four years), signals need to restore core product categories and streamline promotions.
• Product and promo strategy:
  • Reintroducing private label jewelry and petites to entice gifting and regain alienated core customers.
  • Reducing brand exclusions from coupon promotions to make offers more compelling. (32:34)
• Tariffs not a major concern yet; ability to pass along costs or adjust sourcing/pricing has proven effective in past cycles. (35:37)
• **Store visits outperform online—**a reversal from recent trends—and Kohl’s is not alone among retailers seeing this shift. (36:45)
  • “Their stores performed better… actually, the stores are doing better than online.” (36:45)

Notable Quotes

• Oracle/Tech:

  “We think margin is going to be dented by 100 to 200 basis points next year… those numbers do come down.”
  —Anurag Rana, 04:16

• Energy (Texas power demand):

  “It’s also onshoring of manufacturing…electric cars…People are just using more electricity in ways they never did before.”
  —Larry Coben, 05:22

• GE Vernova on grid upgrades:

  “Regardless, we need to invest in the grid.”
  —Scott Strazik, 25:55

• Constellation/Microsoft nuclear deal:

  “Nuclear continues to be very attractive for the Hyperscalers because it operates 24, seven, it’s clean. So it meets their environmental goals and it matches up really well from a reliability standpoint.”
  —Joe Dominguez, 38:57

• Kohl’s:

  “Since they brought [Sephora] in, it’s now 1.8 billion in annual revenues. Meanwhile, they lost about 3 billion in revenues. And now we’re looking for further declines this year.”
  —Mary Ross Gilbert, 32:34

Episode Structure & Flow

• Opening: Oracle earnings analysis and tech sector insights
• CERAWeek Energy Conference: Interviews with NRG Energy and GE Vernova CEOs
• Novo Nordisk trial results and broader pharma market context
• Retail segment with deep dive on Kohl’s challenges and strategies
• Closing interviews with Constellation Energy CEO on decarbonization, M&A, and the nuclear future

Conclusion

This episode delivers a sweeping look at pivotal developments in technology, energy, pharmaceuticals, and retail. Listeners get data-backed insight into Oracle’s margin concerns, the coming wave of energy contracts in the AI era, pharma’s ongoing weight loss drug wars, and the harsh realities facing department stores. The interviews with sector-leading CEOs from the CERAWeek conference add an exclusive layer of expert perspective, making this a must-listen for anyone tracking these dynamic global industries.