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Alix Steel
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Joe Dominguez
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News.
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This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Alix Steel and Paul Sweeney.
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The real outperformance has been US Corporate high yield.
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These are two big time blue chip.
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Alix Steel
Bloomberg Intelligence with Alix Steel and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio on today's Bloomberg.
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Paul Sweeney
Each and every week we provide in depth research and data on some of the 2000 companies and 130 industries our analysts cover worldwide.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
Today we'll look at why shares of the Danish drug maker Novo Nordisk dropped the most since late December.
Paul Sweeney
Plus, we'll discuss why the department store Kohl's gave a weak sales outlook for the year.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
But first we begin with the computer technology company Oracle.
Paul Sweeney
This week the company's shares fell after it gave a sales and profit forecast for the current quarter that fell short of analysts expectations.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
For more guest host Isabel Lee and I We're joined by Anurag Rana, Bloomberg intelligence technology analyst. We first asked Anurag for his take on Oracle and why investors reacted negatively to its earnings.
Anurag Rana
Yeah, the little bit lightness in 4Q that you alluded to is primarily due to supply challenges, which is, you know, the data center expansion everybody's undertaking. So the realization of revenues from that. I'm to be honest, a bit surprised about the stock reaction because the company gave two or three really interesting nuggets for us to chew on. The first one was very large bookings in quarter though. So their remaining performance obligations or the contracts booked, you know, spiked up 63%, 230 billion. And along with that for their FY26 which starts in June and if by 27 they talked about sales growth of 15% and 20% respectively. So those are very strong numbers. So we are a bit surprised about the reaction.
Paul Sweeney
How did Oracle and other companies really react to Chinese upstart Deep Seq? I mean they released an open source and that torpedoed basically the whole AI outlook. Did I mention it in their earnings call and in any of their statements?
Anurag Rana
Yeah, so they are, they were already talking about some of that impact, but these guys reported very strong bookings. But I think your question is probably the most important one right now because I think one reason for the stock selling off despite these bookings could be, you know, do this, does this trade continue going forward in the next two years or so? And I think that's really why people may be skeptical that that 20% growth they are talking about two years from now, you know, how dependable that years depending on, you know, do the companies such as the cloud vendors keep on spending very aggressively on capital expenditures, margins, profit margins.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
Would you learn at Oracle? I know some folks are calling that out.
Anurag Rana
Yeah. So we think they're going to go down next year. They really did not address that issue because I think they're going to talk about it in 4Q. See, when you take up your CapEx from 7 billion to 14 to 16 to 20 over the next, you know, just let's say two years, it's going to have an impact on profitability because the business that's coming in, it's less profitable than your core database business or your applications business. So we think margin is going to be dented by 100 to 200 basis points next year. Consensus doesn't have that figured in their outlook at this point. We think those numbers do come down.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
Our thanks to Anuragran, a Bloomberg Intelligence technology analyst.
Paul Sweeney
This week I was at Sarah Weekes Global Energy Conference in Houston, Texas. It's where all the energy CEOs and officials meet to discuss policy and make deals. And I had the pleasure of I was speaking with Larry Coban, CEO of Energy.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
NRG Energy is involved in energy generation and retail electricity and it provides energy and related services to residential, industrial and commercial customers.
Paul Sweeney
Larry Coban and I discuss power demand and energy costs. And I first asked him if rising power growth is driven primarily by data demand.
Larry Coban
And I, I think it's a lot of things. It's also on shoring of manufacturing. For example, here in Texas there's a, you know, one gig Samsung plant that's going to be opened in a couple of years. It's the Internet of things. It's smart homes. People are just, it's electric cars. People are just using more electricity in ways that they never did before. And as a result of that, that's part of the demand cycle. Obviously, data centers are a big part of it. But data centers aside, all of the people who build data centers also are involved with cloud and a whole slew of other services search that we don't think about because we've had them for so long. But growth for those is increasing every bit as much.
Paul Sweeney
And you guys are one of the largest independent power producers in the United States. Right. So you can really take advantage of this. Where is the biggest demand for what kind of power? Give me some insights into the conversations you're having.
Larry Coban
Right, Sure. I think, you know, competitive markets, the two biggest ones would be Texas and PJM in the Northeast. Texas is a primary focus for us that we do have a strong PJM presence. One of the things we like about Texas is it has a friendlier permitting environment. And it has one Public Utilities Commission and one governor. ERCOT has 13 states in it, plus the District of Columbia. So that's 14 commissions. Fourteen, governor, like people and FERC, which doesn't have any jurisdiction here. So. But I think you're going to see data centers in all of these places and every. In other places where economic growth is going on. It's not going to be limited, but I think Texas is going to be first.
Paul Sweeney
Do you think that the hyperscaler hype about how much they're going to spend on power demand is real to fall short?
Larry Coban
I think, yes. I mean, it won't fall short or it will not fall short. It may even go up.
Paul Sweeney
Okay.
Larry Coban
And the reason I think that is, you know, it's interesting, after Deep Seek, everybody was super concerned about that. And Then three of the hyperscalers came out and essentially doubled their capital commitments. Now, if they actually, after looking at deep seat, decide it's going to be twice as much, then that gives me a great deal of comfort. The power demand is going to be there. And I know everybody's talking about Jevons Paradox because everyone has now googled it for the first time. I'm actually old enough to remember what it was originally, but I think people will start using this more and more. I already see it in our business. We are using enormous amounts of AI and customer service and we're only just scratching the surface.
Paul Sweeney
Speaking of, you're going to be developing 5.4 gigawatts by 2032. Right. How much of that is going to be fully contracted and how much of that will be more merchant spot price?
Larry Coban
You know, we have 1.5 gigs that is shovel ready. That will probably go. Most of that will go directly into the Texas market.
Paul Sweeney
Okay.
Larry Coban
Anything we build beyond that I would anticipate would be fully contracted for related either to a data center or another kind of large user along the way. We are not in the business of taking merchant risks. Some of the other folks are. But we actually like to protect our downside and give ourselves a lot of optionality to the upside so that we don't have to care whether the growth is 2% or 10%. Both of those are ginormous for us.
Paul Sweeney
So what kind of pricing are we talking about for a gas fired plant for renewable for other power? Like what does it look like right now?
Larry Coban
I mean, gas fired plants, we think they're going to be done for 1500 to 2000 a kilowatts installed. The ones that are shovel ready because we started on them five years ago will be much less. But if you're not in the business actively doing it, you're going to have a hard time hitting the top end of the range. Renewable pricing hasn't changed dramatically. It's just that the load curve is changing as people need. There's more 24,7 power use coming in and you know, sun doesn't shine at night, wind doesn't always blow. But renewables aren't dead, they're going to.
Paul Sweeney
Are you sure?
Larry Coban
Yes, actually I am sure.
Paul Sweeney
Okay.
Larry Coban
Because there's still a place for them when they're working in conjunction with gas plants. I mean, part of our portfolio now, we actually shut off our fossil fuel plants during the day when there's a lot of salt and wind in Texas. We buy from the grid, their power and sell it to our customers, generating it ourselves. Those options are still going to be available, at least in competitive markets.
Paul Sweeney
Speaking of, your renewable unit is 30% of your annual earnings. Right. And it's 20% of the renewable market share here in the U.S. how much do you think that can grow for you?
Larry Coban
I our renewable, you know, we generally actually contract for renewables rather than own them. It's a strange thing because we own two coal plants. Everyone else gets cheaper renewable capital than we do, even though we're a big company and quite good at this. And as a result, what we generally do is contract for that power from other developers. Right now we've got two gigs and we're probably going to have a solicitation for more going forward. So I still see it as an integral part of our strategy and a lot of it also will be driven by what the customers want. So the end of the day, we are in the customer service business, not the electricity business. So it's our job to sell you the kind of electrons that you want in terms of, you know, time, place and fuel, and fuel generation. So if you want green electrons, decarbonized electrons, we will have them and we will sell them to you.
Paul Sweeney
Thank you. In terms of the actual agreements, how many agreements are you talking about? That's like, hey, we're going to sign like yeah, yeah, well, we like your electricity, we'll sign it. Versus like firm demand. Here's your paycheck.
Larry Coban
You know, we do this every day. We actually supply power already to every one of the hyperscalers. We have the second largest commercial CNI electricity book in the country and the largest natural gas one. So we sign those kind of arrangements. Some of them are short term, some of them are long term. I think the new data center ones will all be at least 10 and probably closer to 20 years. A, because we won't want to dedicate our site to something that's less than that. B, we won't want to build a dedicated power plant for less than that. And C, if you're going to pay all that money for those chips and to build a data center which actually costs more than a power plant, you're going to want that kind of stability for an extended period of time. So I think a lot of those are going to be fixed price deals off market. With power skills, they will still be in front of the meter because people will want to be connected to the grid, but they will definitely be long term fixed contracts.
Paul Sweeney
How soon are you signing more of those?
Larry Coban
Stay tuned. Fair question. You know My next earnings call is May. It will not be then. Okay, but you know, we're working on these as fast as we possibly can. They're complicated. People, you know, think electricity is just like flicking a switch. It's super complicated. But we are making substantial progress towards some very interesting transactions, talking both to hyperscalers and to developers.
Paul Sweeney
Before I let you go though, what makes it complicated? Is it the pricing? Is it how to structure the deal? Like, is your power going to the grid and then selling back to the hyperscaler? Like, what makes it so hard?
Larry Coban
You need interconnection agreement, you need a construction agreement, you need a turbine agreement. Now, you know, we have all of these in place generically, but they all need to be site specific. You need to decide how big a data center you want to put on the site. How fast are you going to grow that data center. So are you going to start at 200 megs and go up 200 a year? Do you want to start at a gig? So what makes it complicated is putting all of those pieces together. And what people forget is actually for this type of data center is new. Unlike existing data centers where people have done lots of them, there aren't a lot of AI data centers out there yet. But it's complicated. But so is general power plant development, all the permitting and those things. So it's nothing that we're worried about. It's something we actually think we're pretty good at, but.
Paul Sweeney
And hyperscalers are willing to put down that money?
Larry Coban
Absolutely.
Paul Sweeney
They're showing up, knocking on your door.
Larry Coban
They're there, they're there.
Paul Sweeney
Okay.
Larry Coban
They're there. We're there. And you know, because of the agreements we announced last week, the turbines and the contractors are there.
Paul Sweeney
Our thanks to Larry Coban, CEO of Energy. All right, coming up, we're going to have more from the Sarah Week Energy conference and a conversation with CEO of GE Vernova.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio providing in depth research and data on 2000 companies and 130 industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via B I Go on the terminal. I'm Paul Sweeney.
Paul Sweeney
And I'm Alix Steel and this is Bloomberg.
Alix Steel
The FIFA World Cup 26 is coming to North America next summer. It's the ultimate celebration of sports and culture and an opportunity to elevate your company. Get closer to where business meets the beautiful game with a premium hospitality package. Build partnerships in the best seats and suites. Achieve goals over world class food and beverage. Get closer to wins on and off the pitch. Register interest@hospitality.FIFA.com interest.
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Joe Dominguez
Heard the story about the prescription plan? With savings automatically built in, it's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK Co Stories to learn how CBS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK Co Stories.
Alix Steel
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Apple Listen on demand. Wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube, we move next.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
To the drug and pharmaceutical space. This week, shares of the Danish drug maker Novo Nordisk dropped the most since December 20th.
Paul Sweeney
That's after Novo said that people treated with its obesity drug Cagrisema showed underwhelming weight loss in a clinical trial of people with diabetes.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
For more guest host Isabel Lee and I, we're joined by Sam Fazeli, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of Research for Global Industries and Senior Pharmaceuticals Analyst. We first asked Sam where Novo is now In a fast growing market for.
Sam Fazeli
Weight loss treatments, 15.7% is what they lost in this 68 week trial. And then when you correct that for the placebo. So obviously you tell people to also diet, et cetera. That falls down to 12.6%. It's not a big number. Therefore people are upset and this was supposed to be the drug that is going to beat or hope they hoped would beat potentially or be their main way of competing with Taza Appetite from or Mounjaro From Eli Lilly. The reality is it's actually in this trial, it seems about in line with what Tirzepatide gave us. So it's not that it's that bad. It's just these guys set themselves up a while ago saying 25% in obese, 20% or so in obese diabetics. Diabetics for some reason respond less. And of course, both of those have been lower. We had that one, the first one in the obesity population before Christmas, if you remember, and this one. So this market is so awful, with a sea of red everywhere that is really difficult to parse out. Specific companies think or people are just miffed.
Paul Sweeney
Taking a step back when it comes to the reintroduction of legislation to modify the Inflation Reduction Act. How does large pharma sit amidst all of those?
Sam Fazeli
Oh, just a small question that. Right. No, I mean, look, at the end of the day, a lot of these folks are being told you're going to have your. Within that context has been. We've done a lot of analysis on this. Every year, 15 drugs are chosen to be negotiated for price by the Medicare, Medicare plans. So. And it's possible that Novo Zwegovi is going to be part of one of those for 2026 or 2027. I can't remember exactly. That's what's happening with these guys. But a lot of pharma companies have said, look, we can manage this. It's within our realms to be able to cope. And so I think the market has generally accepted that the IRA isn that bad for the pharma industry.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
Sam, talk to us about kind of these generic weight loss drugs. And I guess they're. I don't know if they're generic or they're a different term, but compounded.
Sam Fazeli
Compounded is the phrase you're looking for. Yeah.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
How effective are they and how safe are they?
Sam Fazeli
Well, I mean, look, the companies buy Active from somebody and they make it in the pharmacy and they sell it to you. Right. So it's usually a needle and a syringe. Right. A needle and syringe and a vial. And how safe are they? Who knows? No one's done trials on them. I think the FDA has to believe, and they do go through rigorous assessment that the active that they're buying isn't going to kill people. And I don't think that there's been that much issue. But then at the end of the day, it's not the branded drug. It's not the drug that the manufacturers live and die by. If there's an issue. So the reality is they should be out of the way anyway because they can only sell what are essentially on patent drugs, which they're not supposed to. Right. If there's a shortage, and the FDA has said there's no shortage for either of the drugs from Novo or Lilly now. So those folks have to take them off the market.
Paul Sweeney
Going back to this Caguisema, if Novo plans to seek regulatory approval in the first quarter of next year, what happens if it gets approved and if it doesn't?
Sam Fazeli
Yeah. So look, these are all drugs that are in the evolution of the pipeline of the company. So Wegovy from Novo is often viewed as less impactful in terms of efficacy than Lilies Mounjaro. So here comes Novo with something that matches it with a slightly different mechanism that potentially can help you maintain a little bit more muscle rather than what you get with some of these earlier versions like Pigovy. So that's the idea, but they still have to prove that. And then of course there'll be another generation that will come, triple therapy from Lilly and so on. So basically what they're trying to do is to keep raising the bar and raising the bar on efficacy and raising the bar on giving you the good weight loss that is less, less muscle, more fat.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
Our thanks to Sam Fazelli, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of Research for Global Industries and Senior Pharmaceuticals Analyst.
Paul Sweeney
This week I was at S and P Global's Sara Week Energy Conference in Houston, Texas.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
It's where all the energy CEOs and officials meet to discuss policy and make deals.
Paul Sweeney
I had the pleasure of speaking with Scott Strasek, CEO of GE Vernova GE.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
Vernova is a gas and wind turbine manufacturer and it was spun off a year ago by General Electric.
Paul Sweeney
I spoke to its CEO about the company's grid investments in artificial intelligence and energy. And I began by asking Scott what he thinks the biggest change is leading the company in the last year.
Scott Strasek
I'm proud of the first year, but most importantly, it's really just the beginning for us because a lot of these trends, whether it be AI, whether it be the electrification of these industries, it's really just starting. So our end markets continue to strengthen. I think there's a more reality based focus on both the need for gas and nuclear. So the demand cycle for both of those continues to get even stronger today than where we were 12 months ago. And it really then comes back to how do we, we deliver safely and in a high quality way to serve this incredible market that we're walking into.
Paul Sweeney
Your backlog is huge. Right? It's like $73 billion. Right. Can you give me perspective? Like how much of that is AI demand driven? How much of that is like wind stuff? How much of that is transformers, which is the stuff you got to plug into the grid?
Scott Strasek
You bet. It's still a very small proportion of our backlog is directly attached to AI. I mean, when you really think about even data centers, there's only about 60 gigawatts of data centers globally today and only 15% of that's really explicitly related to AI. Most of it's still cloud and storage. So that's why there's so much growth to come because we're really just starting. But I'm sure us sitting down a few years from now, it's going to be a larger proportion of our backlog.
Paul Sweeney
How much do you think it would be? Best guess?
Scott Strasek
Oh, it's going to be a lot more. There's no question about. No, I don't think think we get to that proportion, but it's going to become more air centric and it's become even more US based because the amount of growth that we're going to see in the US the rest of the decade relative to the rest of the world, it's going to be more tomorrow than it's certainly been the last five to 10 years.
Paul Sweeney
In the meantime, you cannot get a CEO on the stage at Saraweek that isn't talking about GE for Nova because everyone's buying your gas turbines at the end of the day. How, how much of this is firm contracting and how much of that is just like, yeah, we like it, we're going to buy it. Can you give me some insight into that?
Scott Strasek
Well, we're very firm in contract certainly with our gas turbine, our transformer, our switchgear backlog really through 27 into 28. Right now, I would expect by the end of the summer we'll be largely sold out through the end of 28 with those equipment. But we're also looking to kind of find ways to get better every day in a culture of continuous improvement improvement. And if we can increase capacity smartly as we figure out this ramp, we'll do that. But for context, last fall we announced a really almost 35% increase in supply from 25 levels to 27. So 35% increase is a lot. It doesn't mean we stop there, but we've got to get there first to then reevaluate what the art of the possible really is.
Paul Sweeney
Okay, so to that point, what Are the issues with execution. Like, it's a lofty goal. Right. You're investing $600 million to plants in the U.S. it's a lot. How fast can that happen and what are the roadblocks for you?
Scott Strasek
It's got to happen in the next two years. You know, really, this company is going to look very different between now and the summer of 26.
Paul Sweeney
What's the biggest hurdle for you to get that done?
Scott Strasek
Workers. We're going to add over. We're going to add over 1500 employees. That's a combination of engineering and craft labor. That's all in the US Take gas as an example. We've got to add over 500 heavy duty pieces of machinery into our global factories to drive this growth and this ramp. So that's a lot in existing factory footprints. We're highly capable of doing it, but it's a lot between now and, let's say, the fourth of July of next year. So I like our chances, but there's.
Joe Dominguez
A lot of work to do.
Paul Sweeney
Talk to me about the wind part. Okay. Because that's sort of like the cousin no one wants to talk about right now. Right. Or the uncle. If someone came to you and said, hey, Scott, I'd like to buy your wind business, would you be like, yes, take it off my hands?
Scott Strasek
No, I don't think it's that simple. I think at the end of the day, we've got a big onshore wind business today. Even in the US we have over 35,000 wind turbines that are spinning, creating electricity. Today we see real opportunities to repower that existing install base using the infrastructure that's already been built. But putting longer blades onto the wind turbines, that helps the world. We think there's a role for wind and with that role for wind, we're focused today on just operationally running this business better every day, waiting for the growth and inflection that comes. So we really are a believer in an all the above technology suite. We'll also look at our portfolio every day with a steely eye on what creates value for our shareholders. But there's no binary yes or no answer to that question. But we're focused on running these businesses better and ultimately creating value.
Paul Sweeney
All right, so sticking to the wind, the other part of your business, which I think is so cool, are the transformers. So, yes, you can have all the wind farms you want, all the solar that you want, but if you have to plug it into the grid. So I think of it as like a big socket, I'm sure it's much more complicated than that. But talk to me about the growth there because everyone talks about AI and data demand, but like that's where the potential growth is. Walk me through the percentages.
Scott Strasek
And that's also for context, where a lot of our first and foremost interactions really came to be more intimate with the hyperscalers. I mean, we did over half a billion dollars of direct electrical equipment with the hyperscalers and orders last year with transformers with switch gears attached to their data centers. That's a business that we see substantially growing from here. Two years ago, our backlog coming into 2023 was about $6 billion equipment backlog. It's north of $20 billion billion today. So what's the growth rate? It'll stay growing. Our backlog certainly will grow at that same level for another year here at expanding margins. So this is, I think we can have debates between nuclear, gas, wind, what are the power generation sources that are going to power the world? Regardless, we need to invest in the grid.
Paul Sweeney
Yes. And that then leads us to transformers. Before I let you go, North America is what, like 20, 25% of your business right now? Uncertainty is quite high. We saw it with the nfib. A survey of small businesses. Is now a good time to invest in the US and what part of that business do you think it could be in the next five years?
Scott Strasek
I think it's a great time to Invest in the U.S. yes. We've gone through multiple decades with very little load growth and it's really impossible to underwrite a case that we don't need substantially more electricity, electrical equipment and supply here over the next decade. And yeah, that's data centers, but it's not just that we're re industrializing parts of the US to an extent that is going to require more electrical load. You know, EVs, home heating, there's a lot of other factors and beyond that, we just need to modernize what we have for resilience and energy security.
Paul Sweeney
How big of a Percentage could the U.S. or North America be in your portfolio in five years?
Scott Strasek
It's going to grow as a proportion for sure. But it's not the only market. We're continuing to see real growth in Asia and in Europe. But we're very bullish on the U.S. and we're going to keep investing in the U.S. you cited the $600 million and 1500 jobs attached to that. But that's not the end, that's just the beginning as we continue to serve this market.
Paul Sweeney
Our thanks to Scott Strasek, CEO of GE Vernova Coming up, we'll have more from the Sarah Week Energy Conference and a conversation with Joe Dominguez, the CEO of Constellation Energy.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on 2,000 companies in 130 industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via BI Go on the terminal. I'm Paul Sweeney.
Paul Sweeney
And I'm Alix Steel and this is Bloomberg.
Public Investing Representative
You're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some recurring crypto buys, maybe even a few strategic options plays on the side. The point is, you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, crypto. It's all there plus an industry leading 3.8% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member Finran SIPC crypto trading provided by Bakkt Crypto Solutions LLC. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosure so have you.
Joe Dominguez
Heard the story about the prescription plan? With savings automatically built in, it's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK Co Stories to learn how CVS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK Co Stories.
Alix Steel
This is the Bloomberg businessweek Minute brought to you by Amazon Business. I'm Carol Massar. The 84 year old leather goods maker Coach is on a hot streak lately, thanks to a new generation of consumers after years in the retail doldrums. Coach logged almost $1.3 billion in revenue in the most recent fiscal quarter, up 15% from the year before. BusinessWeek's Avalon Purnell writes the revival has been a decade in the making as Coach worked to rebuild its cool factor by getting out of the mall and into the hands of tastemakers, closed in consolidated retail locations and ran ad campaigns featuring Selena Gomez, Jennifer Lopez and other high wattage names. Coach also tapped into the cultural zeitgeist as young consumers look for brands with some customization. TikTok influencers are often seen carrying Coach purses dripping with charms shaped like cherries, pears and pretzels. That's the Bloomberg businessweek minute brought to you by Amazon Business, your partner for smart business Buying. Running a business, it's a lot, right? Orders to place, expenses to track, procurements to manage. It feels like there are never enough hours in the day. We could all use more time. That's where Amazon Business comes in. They offer smart buying solutions to help you make the most of yours, like Spend Visibility, a cloud based system to track your buying pattern so you can optimize your savings and bulk buying so you can continue to save costs on select products with quantity discounts. Now that's smart. Amazon Business handles the heavy lifting so you can finally focus on growing your business instead of drowning in admin. From customized recommendations to real time spend tracking and delivery options tailored to your schedule. They've got your back every step of the way. Why not spend less time sweating the small stuff and more time crushing your goals? Or maybe even sneaking in some well earned downtime? Discover more about smart business buying@amazonbusiness.com a business prime membership is required to access Spend Visibility. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa. Play Bloomberg 11:30 Move next to the.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
Retail space this week the department store Kohl's said that comparable sales this year will drop as much as 6%.
Paul Sweeney
This comes as the company has been making sweeping changes in an attempt to get back on track after three years of declining sales.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
For more guest host Isabel Lee and I, we're joined by Mary Ross Gilbert, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Equity Analyst covering retail. We first asked Mary about Kohl's guidance and why it came in weaker than expected.
Mary Ross Gilbert
With regard to Kohl's guidance, first of all, I think they're really hoping to beat the numbers, but they're expecting their comp sales to be down 5 to 7% in this coming year. And if you look at the performance in the fourth quarter, their revenues came in sort of in line, fairly close. Their comp sales were down about 6.7%. But when you look at what's going on, the Sophora business was up 13% on a comp basis. That means that the rest of their categories, and they're mostly apparel related, were down double digits. So it's very concerning because that's so for a business since they brought it in is now 1.8 billion in annual revenues. Meanwhile, they lost about 3 billion in revenues. And now we're looking for further declines this year. So that's what's really concerning. Now we have a new CEO. This is the third CEO in four years, Ashley Buchanan. And you know, he gave a quick peek at what he sees are the opportunities they need to really get their merchandise assortments right. They did bring back in private label jewelry and petites because those were some of the things that they took out when they brought in some new brands and they found that they were alienating their core customer. Another issue was on the promotional side. They always have these great little coupons, but what they did was they had raised the number of brands that were excluded from the promotion side to an all time high in 2024. Their objective is to reduce that to make it more compelling. So they have a number of strategies that they have to employ here and it's going to take time. So that's why the outlook for this year looks dismal, along with the fact that the consumer climate, particularly for their low income cohort, are challenged by still high inflation and just in an uncertain environment with the ramifications of higher tariffs.
Paul Sweeney
Among the many things that jumped out to me is why they're bringing back fine jewelry. How do you square that with a struggling consumer base? They're not the latest retailer to cast doubt on the strength of the US Consumer.
Mary Ross Gilbert
Yes, Isabelle, so it's a good point, but it's important that you have that for a gifting option. And these items are not, it includes not just fine jewelry, but also costume jewelry. And that category, because they did bring it back in, their sales were flat. So that shows that that strategy of bringing it back because it's very important for gifting. And once again, if you look at the promotions that they offer for jewelry, they have buy one item, get the second item, like half off or something like that. So they do have some compelling value that they're bringing the consumer there. It's important for gifting. So for example, for Valentine's Day and then also, you know, for the holidays.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
What are they saying, Mary, about tariffs and their ability to pass along price increases or conversely, take it in their margin?
Mary Ross Gilbert
Yeah. So tariffs, it wasn't a huge topic on their call. And if you look at the past, they weren't really impacted. They were able to pass it on. And I think what they do is they work with their vendors and they source. So if you look at their private, exclusive labels, that business, they're able to, you know, they haven't disclosed exactly how much they source from China, but they're able to basically work with their vendors on creating that price the product at a price point that fits into their value equation. And so the last time around, if you looked at 2018, 2019, they really didn't call out a specific impact related to tariffs. They said that they were okay, they were able to offset it with either cost savings or just the way that they were able to price it in, you know, in terms of building, building the margin.
Paul Sweeney
How about store visits? Kohl's isn't the only one struggling with that. I myself have just shopped basically online. How are they attempting to attract customers back in store?
Mary Ross Gilbert
Yeah, so Isabel, actually their stores performed better. Now remember, they were, you know, the sales were down but they outperformed online. So you know, earlier in the year we had seen where online did better than in store. But actually, you know, the stores are doing better than online. So they're actually. And we're seeing that from a number of retailers where we do see really good performance in store. And if you look at off price, I mean that's really based and built on in store visits.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
Our thanks to Mary Ross Gilbert, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Equity Analyst covering retail.
Paul Sweeney
This week I was at S and P Global's Sarah Week's Energy conference in Houston, Texas. It's where all the energy CEOs and officials meet to discuss policy, make deals and talk to shareholders. I had the pleasure of speaking with Joe Dominguez, CEO of Constellation Energy.
Bloomberg Intelligence Host
Constellation operates the largest fleet of nuclear reactors in the US and the company recently signed its largest ever power purchase agreement with Microsoft.
Paul Sweeney
It's a deal that will restore Constellation's Three Mile island nuclear plant. And it shows that carbon free electricity is more valuable when it's available around the clock. I began the conversation with Joe Dominguez by talking about the company and asking about recession and slowing growth and whether he's noticing any of that. At Constellation, we don't see an end.
Joe Dominguez
In sight right now. We're starting to see it get rationalized. And by that I mean we're not seeing the same request for data centers popping up in five or six utilities. So I think the hyperscalers are beginning to figure out where they want to go. And it's not the frenzy of activity, but in terms of the deal pace, it continues the same way we saw it last year.
Paul Sweeney
And how are the deals, like, how is it to get them done? Is it hard? Is it coming up with the structure, the money? Like what is it, it's not hard.
Joe Dominguez
But they're complicated it because they're multibillion dollar deals. Right. So we're talking about 20 year deals for power that sometimes could cost 5 or 10 billion dollars. So like any commercial deal of that scale, it's going to take a long time to negotiate and each time you need to do that with a new party, you have to go through all the terms and conditions again. But I think we're going to get some, some deals done this year.
Paul Sweeney
Can you give me some hints like in maybe areas. What kind of deals? Like what kind of power?
Joe Dominguez
Well, I think nuclear continues to be very attractive for the Hyperscalers because it operates 24, seven, it's clean. So it meets their environmental goals and it matches up really well from a reliability standpoint.
Paul Sweeney
So let's go to money then for a second. So coming up with the deals is very interesting, particularly the one you did with Microsoft to restart Three Mile Island. Are your costs going up right now?
Joe Dominguez
A little bit, Little bit. But it's really labor inflation that we mostly see now. Remember, we have existing nuclear plants that are already built, so a lot of the cost of the raw materials that you're seeing, you know, potentially impacted by tariffs in the long run, but an escalation through inflation. We're not seeing much of that tiny bit on uranium pricing, but most of what we're seeing is labor contracting.
Paul Sweeney
If you wind up seeing an increase right, even in labor, how does that, how does that change then your contracts, like if you already said it, you have to go back to them and say, hey listen, we got to renegotiate. My costs are going up now.
Joe Dominguez
There's no reopeners up or down for those sorts of inflation.
Paul Sweeney
So you're really taking on that risk.
Joe Dominguez
Sure, yeah, yeah, we're taking it on for over a 20 year period. And that's the, that's the importance of being able to do this with nuclear. Right. We know exactly what our cost structure is going to be within a range for 10 and 20 years. Harder to do with our natural gas assets where we don't know what's on going the price of natural gas is going to be 10 years out, or whether we're going to have a carbon tax or what the changes in environmental regulations are going to be.
Paul Sweeney
So how do you manage that risk?
Joe Dominguez
Well, I think what's really difficult to do that in the case of natural gas, I think there, what you're doing is something that looks more like an index product that is indexed either inflation or natural Gas prices.
Paul Sweeney
When you talk about the different parts of your business, how much of the capex that you're spending is going to new stuff, beefing up old stuff, or just replacing and making sure everything stays on track.
Joe Dominguez
Yeah. So for us, Alex, we face a critical decision as to whether to relicense the nuclear plants for another 20 years. And we're facing that across the fleet. So when you say new, if we don't do this, it's going to be retired very much like Three Mile island was retired. So the distinction between keeping existing open and something that's truly new is. Is immaterial. Right. If it's gone, it's gone. It's the same as if it were never built. So we are investing all of our monies to secure that fleet for the future. And we're also doing upgrades and restarts and other things like that. In terms of a percentage to. To your question, I would say 90% of our spend is in the existing assets and getting them ready to run for decades to come.
Paul Sweeney
So when we talk about power demand booming and increasing by multiple digits. Right. I mean, 10, 10%, 7% would be huge. How do you play that? Like, if it's not new, is it just expanding?
Joe Dominguez
Well, it is expanding. A lot of our clients are interesting, interested in operating that's increasing the output of existing nuclear plants. And we're doing that in a number of different regions. Obviously, the restart is more limited. You had one plant there that you could turn on and I think there might be another in the nation. And then the rest of that is going to be probably spent on renewables, storage and natural gas for the time being and in the fullness of time.
Paul Sweeney
New nuclear, M and A for that. I know you just bought Calpine, so that really beefs up your natural gas. Nuclear is now 50% of your portfolio versus, say 70. That was a big shift. What else is in your pipeline for that?
Joe Dominguez
Well, we've got a lot on our plate. We've got a lot of food to eat. Yeah. And so this year we're going to spend making sure that we're ready to integrate Calpine and prepared for regulatory approvals at the back end of the year. But as you said, it's a big deal. And I think what we've indicated as a company is M and A is a big part of our strategy.
Paul Sweeney
Yes, M and A in beefing up nuclear natural gas or you want to diversify?
Joe Dominguez
All of the above. All of the above. I think storage is going to increasingly be a part of the story. So we'll look at those opportunities, opportunities as well.
Paul Sweeney
Everyone now wants to get into power. It is the coolest thing right now in the market. Whether you're looking integrated utilities, regulated utilities, even energy companies. Are you seeing more competition?
Joe Dominguez
I think what people are trying to figure out is whether they too can secure longer term contracts. I don't see people building spec power plants hoping, you know, the demand will come. So I think there is going to be a lot of interest there, but it's largely going to be fossil. They'll continue to be renewables, but it always has been renewables and then we'll see whether they could get deals done.
Paul Sweeney
Our thanks to Joe Dominguez, CEO of Constellation Energy.
Alix Steel
This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live each weekday 10am to noon eastern on bloomberg.com the iHeartRadio app, tune in and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Running small and medium sized businesses is hard work. Business owners need to be sure that their ads are working just as hard as they do.
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Episode: BI Weekend: Oracle, Kohl’s Earnings, CERAWeek
Date: March 14, 2025
Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Alix Steel
Main Focus: Deep dives into Oracle's earnings, energy-sector demand and strategy from the CERAWeek conference, pharmaceutical volatility with Novo Nordisk, and retail challenges highlighted by Kohl’s.
This episode brings Bloomberg Intelligence’s trademark market analysis to a packed agenda. Hosts Paul Sweeney and Alix Steel examine Oracle’s latest earnings and future outlook, unpack key conversations from the CERAWeek energy conference—including exclusive interviews with energy CEOs—analyze Novo Nordisk’s pharmaceutical performance, and scrutinize Kohl’s attempts at retail turnaround amid consumer headwinds.
Segment Timestamps: 02:20 – 04:51
Guest: Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analyst
“I’m to be honest, a bit surprised about the stock reaction because the company gave two or three really interesting nuggets… very large bookings… spiked up 63%.” (02:39)
Segment Timestamps: 04:54 – 13:32
Interviewee: Larry Coben, CEO, NRG Energy
Segment Timestamps: 21:00 – 28:00
Interviewee: Scott Strazik, CEO, GE Vernova
Segment Timestamps: 37:22 – 43:30
Interviewee: Joe Dominguez, CEO, Constellation Energy
Segment Timestamps: 16:03 – 20:41
Guest: Sam Fazeli, Director of Research, Bloomberg Intelligence & Senior Pharma Analyst
Segment Timestamps: 32:13 – 37:18
Guest: Mary Ross Gilbert, BI Senior Equity Analyst covering retail
Oracle/Tech:
“We think margin is going to be dented by 100 to 200 basis points next year… those numbers do come down.”
—Anurag Rana, 04:16
Energy (Texas power demand):
“It’s also onshoring of manufacturing…electric cars…People are just using more electricity in ways they never did before.”
—Larry Coben, 05:22
GE Vernova on grid upgrades:
“Regardless, we need to invest in the grid.”
—Scott Strazik, 25:55
Constellation/Microsoft nuclear deal:
“Nuclear continues to be very attractive for the Hyperscalers because it operates 24, seven, it’s clean. So it meets their environmental goals and it matches up really well from a reliability standpoint.”
—Joe Dominguez, 38:57
Kohl’s:
“Since they brought [Sephora] in, it’s now 1.8 billion in annual revenues. Meanwhile, they lost about 3 billion in revenues. And now we’re looking for further declines this year.”
—Mary Ross Gilbert, 32:34
This episode delivers a sweeping look at pivotal developments in technology, energy, pharmaceuticals, and retail. Listeners get data-backed insight into Oracle’s margin concerns, the coming wave of energy contracts in the AI era, pharma’s ongoing weight loss drug wars, and the harsh realities facing department stores. The interviews with sector-leading CEOs from the CERAWeek conference add an exclusive layer of expert perspective, making this a must-listen for anyone tracking these dynamic global industries.