Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast – “Black Friday Special”

Release Date: November 28, 2025
Hosts: Scarlet Fu, Paul Sweeney, Vonnie Quinn
Notable Guests: Jeff Chang (Vest Financial), Julie Borenstein (Daydream), Andrea Varnado (Consumer/Retail Expert), Ryan Peterson (Flexport)

Episode Overview

This Black Friday edition harnesses the deep expertise of Bloomberg Intelligence, analyzing 2025’s market performance, the ongoing AI revolution, shifts in retail and consumer habits, and the tangled realities of supply chains and tariffs. With solid market data and insider views from technology, fashion retail, and logistics leaders, the hosts and guests explore how AI is reshaping holiday shopping and investing, why selective consumer behavior is the new normal, and what’s really happening behind the scenes in global supply chains.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2025 Market Performance & The AI Investment Boom

• Market Context:
  • S&P 500 is up 15% YTD; NASDAQ up 20%.
  • “Solid performance. I don’t care where you are, who you are.” — Paul Sweeney [02:03]
• AI as Driver & Source of Volatility:
  • Jeff Chang claims AI will “remain the biggest driver of growth, and the greatest source of volatility.” [02:22]
  • Sectors like data centers and cloud computing are seeing the most activity.
• AI Bubble or Structural Shift?
  • “This is not a bubble like crypto; it’s a generational, structural shift… AI will diffuse into Main Street, from logistics to enterprise software, healthcare, and defense.” — Jeff Chang [04:49]
  • Selectivity matters: core infrastructure plays (Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet) will likely see the most sustainable returns.
• Earnings vs. Investment:
  • While hundreds of billions are invested, realized earnings are lower now—mirroring “the fiber-optic/Internet story, where payoff came later.” [05:37]

Notable Quote

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. What you’re seeing is a fiber-optic/Internet type situation. We’re fundamentally changing how we do business.”
— Jeff Chang [05:52]

2. How to Invest in the Next AI Winners

• Is Nvidia Still the Play?
  • Nvidia retains dominance as “the bellwether of AI hardware,” but competition is intensifying (Google, Microsoft, custom chips). [03:10]
• Private Markets May Hold the Next Facebook or Netflix:
  • “The real Facebooks and Netflixes of the AI revolution are probably still in startup mode; your next wave of winners is actually in venture and early-stage private markets.” — Jeff Chang [08:20]
• Public investors need to temper expectations for moonshot returns from small-cap public plays.

Notable Quote

“The Facebooks in AI of tomorrow are going to be in venture—early-stage or mid-stage startups really able to innovate, move fast, and break things.”
— Jeff Chang [08:20]

3. AI Reshaping Holiday Shopping

• AI-Powered Personal Shopping Agents:
  • Julie Borenstein (Daydream) describes a future where, “the goal is to be a personal stylist in your pocket… you describe what you’re looking for in any way you want, and AI helps you find it.” [12:43]
• Customer Behavior:
  • Harris Poll: 42% of holiday shoppers now use AI tools for shopping [13:11]
  • Gen Z adoption is especially high with image-based search and instant product matching. [15:00]
• Prompting is Key:
  • “The truth is that consumers are just learning how to prompt.” — Julie Borenstein [14:27]
  • Creativity in prompts (“I want a revenge dress in the Saltburn”) leads to diverse, personalized results.
• Privacy Concerns:
  • The system only processes images/screenshots when the user initiates a search. [15:54]
• Monetization:
  • Daydream emphasizes unbiased matching (“not whoever pays most appears first”) unlike some ad-driven models. [16:54]
• AI Shopping Competition:
  • OpenAI and Amazon are rolling out shopping bots, but Borenstein argues Daydream’s fashion focus offers a more nuanced experience. [17:29]
• Trends in Consumer Spending:
  • “Bigger than last year, but probably not by a huge amount.” [18:10]
  • Cyber Week deals spark ‘save now, buy later’ consumer strategies.
• Fundraising Environment:
  • “It’s a very AI-focused fundraising environment—if you’re not doing something with AI, it has to be unique.” [18:58]
  • Investors believe AI will shape the future; you need an authentic AI advantage or a strong “moat.” [19:40]

4. State of the Consumer (Retail Expert Analysis)

• Consumer Sentiment:
  • “Retailers are actually quite optimistic… but consumers are absorbing the ripple effects of shutdowns, a cold housing market, and layoffs.” — Andrea Varnado [21:41]
  • Spending continues, but more selectively.
• Spending Reallocation:
  • Consumers seek “intelligent value”: utility, longevity, function.
  • Shoppers consolidate purchases with fewer retailers; loyalty programs and stress-reducing products/services gain traction. [22:31]
• Inventory/Supply Chain:
  • Robust shelf availability due to companies pulling inventory forward in anticipation of tariffs. [23:44]
• Inflation’s Effect:
  • “A toy that was $20 before the pandemic is now $40…” Inflation is pervasive, impacting commodities, groceries, and toys. [24:40]
  • Result: more trade-downs, shift to generics, exploration of cheaper alternatives.
• Promotional Strategies:
  • Selective sitewide deals are rare; “you will get deals, but they will be very selective.” [25:27]
  • Bundling and higher ticket values are key, as “share of wallet, not just traffic, is the real battle.” [27:31]
• Trendy Categories:
  • Fragrances, functional tech, and luxury items—chosen for longevity, personal value, and, occasionally, resale potential. [26:39]

5. Supply Chain and Tariffs — The Global Logistics Landscape

• Ongoing Uncertainty:
  • “People are getting used to operating in a lot of uncertainty… brands are figuring out how to be agile.” — Ryan Peterson [32:05]
  • Big SCOTUS tariff refund case looms. 37% of duties passed to consumers; 9% to suppliers; rest absorbed by companies. [32:05]
• Tariff Impact:
  • Companies must decide: pass the costs along or eat them. Those who can pass costs tend to be stronger businesses. [33:13]
• Canal Disruptions:
  • Suez Canal: “Container volumes still down 75% since Houthis attacked” [34:11]
  • Panama Canal: Widening project led to more frequent water shortages; solution likely requires multi-billion-dollar investment. [35:02]
• Inventory Strategies:
  • Retailers are “front-loading” inventories due to tariff uncertainties. High odds of stockouts on hits and leftover surpluses. Expect more deals in Q1 2026. [36:03]
• Shipping & M&A:
  • Industry consolidation continues; fewer major ocean carriers remain, but forced M&A is less likely now due to stronger balance sheets. [37:35]
• Railroad Mergers:
  • Interest in “transcontinental railroads,” but concentration raises oligopoly/monopoly concerns. [38:42]
• Shipping Cost Impacts:
  • Cargo/container pricing steady across product types, but tariffs and category-specific rules introduce major variability. [39:57]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

AI Investing:

“Selectivity matters where you’re actually going to be in AI… The Facebooks in AI of tomorrow are going to be in venture—early-stage or mid-stage startups.”
— Jeff Chang (Vest Financial) [08:20]

Retail Innovation:

“The goal is to be a personal stylist in your pocket… you have the ability instantly to pull up results closest to that product.”
— Julie Borenstein (Daydream) [12:43, 15:00]

Consumer Sentiment:

“The customer isn’t stepping back, they’re really reprioritizing and doing a purposeful reallocation.”
— Andrea Varnado (Retail Expert) [22:31]

Supply Chain Reality:

“We’re not back to normalcy. Suez volumes are still down 75%. You have to be very agile in this environment.”
— Ryan Peterson (Flexport) [34:11]

Fundraising and AI:

“It is a very AI-focused fundraising environment… if you’re not doing something with AI, it needs to be a very unique proposition.”
— Julie Borenstein (Daydream) [18:58]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Markets & AI Investing:
  02:01–09:25 — Jeff Chang interview (Vest Financial)

• Holiday Shopping Innovations & AI in Retail:
  12:27–20:52 — Julie Borenstein interview (Daydream)

• Consumer Spending Trends:
  21:19–28:37 — Andrea Varnado interview (Consumer/Retail Expert)

• Supply Chain, Tariffs & Global Logistics:
  31:27–40:34 — Ryan Peterson interview (Flexport)

Episode Takeaways

• AI is both a driver and a source of volatility for markets and retail alike; true structural change is underway, not just a speculative bubble.
• Retailers embrace AI to personalize shopping, but prompt learning and privacy are evolving challenges.
• Consumers remain willing to spend in 2025, but they do so more selectively, searching for value, bundled offers, and loyalty-driven purchases, shaped by years of inflation and economic crosscurrents.
• Ongoing tariff and supply chain disruptions amplify the need for inventory and pricing agility, with global events far from “normal.”
• Across investing and entrepreneurship, an authentic AI story is required to access capital in today’s marketplace.

For listeners seeking actionable insights:
This episode delivers a comprehensive snapshot of how technology, consumer psychology, and geopolitics are redefining Black Friday, investing, and retail in 2025.