Chevron, US Oil Stocks Rally as Trump Vows Venezuela Revival

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast: Chevron, US Oil Stocks Rally as Trump Vows Venezuela Revival

Date: January 5, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu, Paul Sweeney
Key Guests: Vincent Piazza (Bloomberg Intelligence - Energy), Will Lee & George Ferguson (Bloomberg Intelligence - Aerospace & Defense), Aaron David Miller (Carnegie Endowment), Edward Price (NYU)

---

Episode Overview

This episode examines the sweeping market and geopolitical implications following a US military operation that removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Hosts Paul Sweeney and Karen Moscow draw on Bloomberg Intelligence's expertise to explore ramifications for global oil markets, US defense strategies, and international law, with a particular focus on Chevron and other US oil stocks rallying as President Trump vows to “revive” Venezuela’s energy sector.

---

Key Segments & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Oil Sector & US Industry Impacts

(Segment: 01:11 – 05:04)
Guest: Vincent Piazza, Senior Equity Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Chevron’s Long Game: Chevron has maintained a presence in Venezuela for nearly a century, persevering through cycles of nationalization and privatization.

  “Chevron has been there. They've had a foothold in that country throughout the more controversial times. And so they are a direct beneficiary.” — Vincent Piazza (01:32)

• Infrastructure Decay and Recovery Timeline: The state of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is poor due to years of underinvestment. Prior peak production was over 3 million barrels per day, compared to around 1 million now.

  “It's going to take a lot of time and a lot of investment to get back to that... This is going to be a slow grind.” — Vincent Piazza (01:50)

• Winners and Losers:

  • Winners: US Gulf Coast refiners are positioned to benefit most, as the Venezuelan heavy crude is well-suited to their refinery configurations.

    “The one group that will likely benefit the most is really the US Gulf coast refining sector because of their slate, because of what barrels that they need to maximize their refining capacity.” — Piazza (02:32)

  • Losers: Canadian oil sands producers (e.g., Canadian Natural Resources, Synovus Energy, Suncor Energy) may face price pressures as Venezuelan heavy crude returns to the market.

    “There will be a steady bleed south of those prices as more flows come from Venezuela.” — Piazza (04:20)

---

2. US Military Action: Geopolitical Repercussions & Defense Sector Outlook

(Segment: 07:02 – 13:09)
Guests: Will Lee (Aerospace & Defense Analyst), George Ferguson (Sr. Analyst, Aerospace/Defense/Airlines)

• Operation Absolute Resolve: The raid that removed Maduro is seen as a limited action, not an escalation to larger-scale conflict.

  “...Trump administration, this defense strike was a limited military action. It isn't increased expansion in military role in nation building.” — Will Lee (07:47)

• Shift in US Strategy: The US is refocusing on Latin America to limit Russian and Chinese influence, especially in Venezuela’s resource sectors.

  “The Trump administration is turning back...and saying, hey, this is...an area where we're going to be the primary influencer. We don't need sort of Russian and Chinese meddling around here.” — George Ferguson (09:11)

• Pentagon's Focus Stays on China: Despite the Latin America pivot, China remains the Pentagon’s top “pacing threat.”

  “That pacing threat, I think, still is China. And so you're going to still see the majority of the money spent on systems that are needed in Asia to project power.” — Ferguson (09:58)

• Defense Spending Outlook: The defense budget is expected to rise gradually after a major reconciliation bill provided a one-time boost; no step-change expansion expected.

  “...the defense spending will probably rise gradually. Not, not anything that's going to be a step function increase.” — Will Lee (11:05)

• Strained Resources and Burden-Sharing:

  “It's always sort of stretched too thin. I just, you know, I think that's part of the discussion that Trump is having with Europe right now…We really need you to sort of step up, step up not only your manpower but your capabilities.” — Ferguson (12:23)

---

3. Diplomatic Risks & Uncertainty: What Happens After Regime Change?

(Segment: 14:29 – 19:52)
Guest: Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment

• Cautious Optimism with Many Unknowns: The US removed a "very bad man," but key questions about long-term policy, costs, and outcomes persist.

  “When the US deploys its forces abroad, it needs to ask some pretty basic questions. Not just can we, but should we? What's next and what's it going to cost?” — Aaron David Miller (15:04)

• Regional Fallout: Neighboring countries eye the situation warily, with strong initial condemnation from Colombia and Cuba.

  “The Colombians already come out against us pretty strongly. So is the Cubans. 80, 80 people, civilians and military were killed in this operation...32 of the 80 were Cuban security personnel.” — Miller (16:40)

• Risk of Instability: The Maduro government is likely trying to stay cohesive, but the risk of chaos remains high.

  “The Maduro government...has a stake in, in trying to maintain a degree of cohesion to see exactly...what kind of pressure is the United States going to bring?” — Miller (19:14)

---

4. International Law, Precedent, and Potential for Wider Repercussions

(Segment: 21:12 – 26:42)
Guest: Edward Price, Nonresident Senior Fellow, NYU

• US Action Sets a Precedent: Removing a sitting foreign head of state may embolden other powers or undermine norms.

  “It could prove in the long run to be a bad thing that any power seizes the president of any other power, even if that president is also a drug dealer.” — Edward Price (21:31)

• Venezuelan Response: The future depends on how remaining government elements and the population react; the country's economy and oil output are in severe distress.

  “Its total energy production has been down annualized 8% between 2011 and 2021. So it's already more or less on its knees.” — Price (22:38)

• International Ramifications: There’s concern the move could justify similar actions by other global powers (e.g., Russia, China) under the logic of “enforcing domestic law.”

  “That is another way of saying that maybe other powers elsewhere in the world will decide to, to follow this example.” — Price (21:51) “We could well have let the genie out of the bottle. Good question. On this kidnapping of foreign leaders as a new norm.” — Price (24:45)

• Potential Hotspots: Russia, China, Cuba, Colombia, and even Greenland are raised as places to watch for potential spillover.

  “I think Mexico should probably have a think about how many cartel members it's harboring. And as for Cuba...I wouldn't myself be opposed to a similar operation there.” — Price (25:55)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On US Long-Term Oil Benefits:
  “Eventually, yes, when you think about where those flows are headed, the one major beneficiary...is really the US Gulf coast refining sector." — Vincent Piazza (02:32)

• On Precedent of Regime Change:
  “It could prove in the long run to be a bad thing that any power seizes the president of any other power, even if that president is also a drug dealer." — Edward Price (21:31)

• On the Risks of Foreign Operations:
  “When the US deploys its forces abroad, it needs to ask some pretty basic questions. Not just can we, but should we? What's next and what's it going to cost?” — Aaron David Miller (15:04)

• On Military Overextension:
  “It's always sort of stretched too thin...We really need you [Europe] to sort of step up...” — George Ferguson (12:23)

• On International Reactions:
  “Russians are already concerned about this, convinced that if the Americans control the largest proven oil reserves in the world that they'll flood the market and price of Russian crude is going to is going to drop.” — Aaron David Miller (17:30)

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | Guest(s) | |--------------|------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------| | 01:11-05:04 | Venezuela’s oil future, Chevron, US refinery impact | Vincent Piazza | | 07:02-13:09 | US military action, defense contractors, defense budget | Will Lee, George Ferguson | | 14:29-19:52 | Diplomatic, regional risk, regime change uncertainty | Aaron David Miller | | 21:12-26:42 | International law precedents and global politics | Edward Price |

---

Conclusion

This episode delivers a comprehensive analysis of the US-led change in Venezuela, addressing immediate market implications—especially for oil and defense equities—and probing deeper geopolitical questions about precedent, international order, and regional stability. The consensus among analysts: there are high stakes, slow-moving gains for US interests (especially in oil refining), and considerable risks for both international law and US allies in a newly unsettled hemisphere.

Transcript

[Paul Sweeney]

Ditch the complexity. Intuit Enterprise Suite delivers AI native ERP that is intuitive and intelligent. Scale faster with advanced control. Getting started in days, not months. Learn [e-mail] Enterprise and get the power you need.

[Karen Moscow]

Bloomberg Daybreak is your best way to get informed first thing in the morning, right in your podcast feed. Hi, I'm Karen Moscow.

[Paul Sweeney]

And I'm Nathan Hager. Each morning we're up early putting together the latest episode of Bloomberg Daybreak US Edition. It's your daily 15 minute podcast on the latest in global news, politics and international relations.

[Karen Moscow]

Listen to the Bloomberg Daybreak US Edition podcast each morning for the stories that matter with the context you need.

[Paul Sweeney]

Find us on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.

[Karen Moscow]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Aut with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Paul Sweeney]

Let's check in with Vincent Piazza, senior equity research analyst covering all the energy space for Bloomberg Intelligence. Vincent, if you're a big oil company, like a chevron, like an ExxonMobil, you're waking up here over the past couple of days. How are you viewing Venezuela these days as an investment opportunity if you're one of these big oil companies?

[Vincent Piazza]

Well, if you're Chevron, you've been in country for almost a century now, right? So you take a longer term view. The assets have been renationalized and privatized and renationalized a couple of times, right. So Chevron has been there. They've had a foothold in that country throughout the more controversial times. And so they are a direct beneficiary. But again, it's going to take time. This isn't something that, you know, although the military action didn't harm any of the facilities, the facilities have been in decay and have been underinvested in for several years throughout the nation. So this is going to be a slow grind. Higher. You know, think about that. The nation was producing more than 3 million barrels a day at its prior peak. And that peak was sometime in the 70s and it was right around 3 million in the early knots before, before it was nationalized. There's somewhere around a million barrels a day now. So it's going to take a lot of time and a lot of investment to get back to that. So we shouldn't be jumping the gun here. But eventually, yes, when you think about where those flows are headed, the one major beneficiary the one group that will likely benefit the most is really the US Gulf coast refining sector because of their slate, because of what barrels that they need to maximize their refining capacity. So in the US the refining slate is really geared toward the heavier barrels that are produced in Venezuela and also in other parts of Latin America. So what this will do, it will put pressure on that light heavy differential, it will bring heavy barrel prices down and it will benefit the margins of the refiners. Chevron and Exxon also have refining capacity, coker and hydro cracker capacity along the Gulf coast and they will benefit eventually. This isn't something that's going to happen tomorrow, next week, maybe not even next year. But over time we see those margins improving as that differential widens out with pressure on the heavy barrels.

[Karen Moscow]

Okay, so you say the Gulf coast refiners certainly benefit. The ones that don't benefit seem to be some Canadian oil sands companies which also produce heavy crude. We're seeing declines in Canadian natural resources, Synovus Energy and Suncor Energy. Is that just a knee jerk reaction or is there something more to this?

[Vincent Piazza]

No. Eventually you'll see pressure on those barrels because once you have more flow coming from Venezuela, it'll put price pressure on those barrels from the Canadian oil sands down into the US and so more supply, supply means price pressure. And so there will be a steady bleed south of those prices as more flows come from Venezuela. Eventually. Once that's locked, once that is unlocked, it's going to take time. But I think the the losers there would be those heavier barrels coming from our neighbors up north.

[Paul Sweeney]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

[Karen Moscow]

Stop struggling with complex, costly ERP systems. Introducing Intuit Enterprise Suite, the AI native ERP that adapts with your business. Get enterprise grade power made, intuitive, intelligent, adaptive and ready for what's next. It streamlines complex financial management, automates workflows and unifies all your entities. It's simple to access and quick to adopt. Helping you get going in days, not months. Get the power you need without the complexity. Learn more at intuit.com/enterprise now.

[Aaron David Miller]

This is Tom Keene inviting you to join me for the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. It's about making you smarter. Each and every business day, we bring you a recap of what happened overnight in Europe and Asia. The day's economic data and complete coverage of the US Market open. We cover stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, even crypto. All the information you need to excel. Bloomberg Surveillance also brings you the analysis behind the heavyweight. We do that with lengthy conversations with our expert guests, the smartest names in economics, finance, investment and international relations. We do all this live each and every weekday, then bring you the best analysis in our daily podcast search for Bloomberg surveillance on YouTube, Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen on the East Coast. Listen at lunch and on the west coast when you wake up. That's the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast with me, Tom Keene, along with Paul Sweeney and Lisa Mateo. Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.

[Karen Moscow]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Paul Sweeney]

One of the most read stories on the Bloomberg Terminal today starts with this lead paragraph. The US Raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro put America's allies and adversaries on notice. President Trump has a new world order of his own and obviously that may have implications for a lot of different parts of the marketplace and different industries out there, one of them being aerospace, defense, airlines. Let's get the latest there. We joined by Will Lee, aerospace and defense analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, and George Ferguson, senior aerospace, defense and airlines analyst. George is down in Princeton. We've got Will here in our New York studios. Will, I'll start with you. You've covered the defense companies for a long time here. Are they sensing that there might be a new world order in one that even though President Trump ran on the, you know, his campaign said we're not going to get in any of those wars outside of the US we're not going to bother, but sure we have. What did the defense contractor say now in terms of looking at the reaction with the stock performance of the US Defense contractors versus the Europeans, it seems that the Trump administration, this defense strike was a limited military action. It isn't increased expansion in military role in nation building. This is more say the law enforcement action. And so a lot of the assets that were being used to execute Operation Absolute Resolve is something that has been or will be used for the Asia Pacific pivot in terms of the shipbuilding, in terms of the need for more manned aircraft and precision and long range strike, long range strike munitions. George, he served in Iraq as an army intelligence officer in 2003. So you kind of know the back how this all these operations kind of get planned out, executed. George, and look like the US Military performed extraordinarily well here. What do you, what are you sensing in terms of any difference about how the the military folks are thinking about their role here? Because it looks like the focus is going to be changing and focusing a little bit more on this hemisphere.

[George Ferguson]

Yeah. So, I mean, I think that, you know, we've kind of seen the Chinese and the Russians make some inroads in, in Latin America. You know, specifically they were involved in military supply inside Venezuela, as well as taking some of the oil out of there. And so, I mean, I think that the Trump administration is turning back towards the Gulf of America, the Gulf of Mexico, whatever you want to call it, and Latin America and saying, hey, this is, this is an area where we're going to be the primary influencer. We don't need sort of Russian and Chinese meddling around here. And, and so I think you're going to see, you know, more military.

[Paul Sweeney]

I.

[George Ferguson]

Don'T want to say action, but at least more military presence around the region. As Will said, though, look, I mean, I think, you know, as we would, as we look at the Pentagon, we look at defense stocks, we always think of what the pacing threat is. And the pacing threat is who's the Pentagon focusing on as they build their capabilities and train their soldiers and think about where the risk is of a major conflagration here in the future. And that pacing threat, I think, still is China. And so you're going to still see the majority of the money spent on systems that are needed in Asia to project power. But I think you may find, again, US Forces hanging around our southern neighbors a little more than maybe some of them expected when they joined the military.

[Paul Sweeney]

Hey, well, talk to us about just the, the environment for defense spending, how the last couple of budgets been? How's the upcoming budget look? I mean, is it, is the US Military still getting what it needs? Yeah. So I would say that with the fiscal 26 budget, it was a little bit of anomaly because you have that large reconciliation bill that was passed last year that added about $113 billion to the overall defense spending. But generally we see that the defense spending will probably rise gradually. Not, not anything that's going to be a step function increase, like what we saw with the 26 budget, so something along the lines of maybe around $1 trillion, which is 2, 3% increase from this year. George so going back to kind of the hot spot areas of the world here, do you feel like our defense, our military, if one can make an argument, it just feels like it's being stretched so thin. There's stuff going on, obviously, in the Ukraine, so you got to keep your focus on Europe. We've got the Middle east, of course, China as you mentioned earlier and now, you know, kind of Latin America here. Is there concern when you talk to folks within the industry that maybe this military is getting stretched a little thin here?

[George Ferguson]

Yeah, I mean, I think there's always that concern. And I mean, the US Military, you know, continues to be, I think in the, of the free nations around the world, it's the largest, it's the most capable as we saw. But it also gets, you know, a lot of the, a lot of missions get pushed upon it to do so. It's always sort of stretched too thin. I just, you know, I think that's part of the discussion that Trump is having with Europe right now. It's not always conducted maybe the most elegantly, but I think part of the discussion is you're a big economic bloc, you have a lot of GDP strength behind you, about 80% of what the US has, yet your military is almost nothing. And we really need you to sort of step up, step up not only your manpower but your capabilities. You know, step up your buy of equipment, high end equipment, and invest in technology so you can bear some of the burden that we have managing all these challenges around the world. So it's certainly stretched too thin. I think we're hoping allies will come into the game more Stay with us.

[Paul Sweeney]

More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

[Vincent Piazza]

I'm June Grosso inviting you to join me for the Bloomberg Law Podcast. Every weekday we help you make sense of the legal stories that shape the nation and the world. Listen for complete analysis of the biggest court cases, the latest actions from Congress and regulations, regulators, and the legal moves.

[Karen Moscow]

Driving the markets, from corporate law to.

[Vincent Piazza]

Constitutional law and from state courts to the Supreme Court. At Bloomberg Law, we go beyond the day's headlines.

[Karen Moscow]

We speak with top attorneys, judges, scholars.

[Vincent Piazza]

And policy experts to break down what the rulings really mean. We do this every weekday, then bring.

[Karen Moscow]

You the best conversations in our daily podcast.

[Vincent Piazza]

Search for Bloomberg Law on YouTube, Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen to on the East Coast. Listen as you start your day and on the west coast, catch up in the evening. That's the Bloomberg Law Podcast with me, June Grosso. Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.

[Karen Moscow]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Paul Sweeney]

I guess one of the lessons we all learned from Iraq was if you break it, you own it. And that's why I think it's leading a lot of folks to ask the question today. Ok, Maduro is out as leader of Venezuela. Most people agree that's a good thing in and of itself. But now what's the policy going forward? So let's talk to some smart people about this coming up. Aaron. David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace down there in Washington, D.C. aaron, what did you make of the news over the weekend out of Venezuela?

[Aaron David Miller]

Thanks for having me, Paul and Scarlett. I don't know about you guys. I have more questions than answers. I worked for Republicans and Democrats voted for them, Jimmy Carter, Bush 43. It just seems to me that when the US deploys its forces abroad, it needs to ask some pretty basic questions. Not just can we, but should we? What's next and what's it going to cost? And I think what we know almost 72 hours into this, that a very bad man, a bad actor and his wife have been taken offline. The US Military has demonstrated a tactical brilliance extraordinary, an extraordinary complex set of circumstances. Beyond that, it's hard for me to understand what the administration's end goals here. Is it to control oil and oil to produce a regime that's stable, not caring whether it's democratic or not? Then how does the United States in a country roughly what, twice the size of California, with 31 million people embassy has been closed there since 2019. How does the Trump administration make its impact and its influence on internal Venezuelan politics felt? And how does it bend the Maduro light government to its will? Those are the core questions I've got this morning.

[Karen Moscow]

Yeah. And these are great questions to pose. They feel unanswerable right now, Aaron, because we don't know how it's all going to play out. If you were running a neighboring country of Venezuela, what does this mean for, for Cuba, for Colombia? Because the president seemed to imply that they were next on his target list.

[Aaron David Miller]

Well, they're bad actors, certainly Trump administration list. It's always Greenland or at least the Danes who when the president's view really shouldn't be in control of Greenland. I think, look, the Colombians already come out against us pretty strongly. So is the Cubans. 80, 80 people, civilians and military were killed in this operation. The press is reporting that 32 of the 80 were Cuban security personnel. So I think one of the, one of the demands, I suspect of the Trump administration as it deals with this Maduro light government headed by right now, the acting president, Delsey Rodriguez, is to basically get this government to break its ties not just to Cuba, but to stop exporting oil to China, to Russia and to Iran. Russians are already concerned about this, convinced that if the Americans control the largest proven oil reserves in the world that they'll flood the market and price of Russian crude is going to is going to drop. So there are a lot of echoes and ripples here. But for the moment, I think the real core question is who exactly is the administration going to work with in order to accomplish its goals in Venezuela? And right now it seems to me they're banking on stability and prepared to work with the remnants of Maduro's government. If that is in fact the case, then I think the lift is going to be a lot harder. The Venezuelan military has not spoken. What they've got about 123,000 total forces. They've been humiliated by the US military. They can't be happy about this. And they're probably relieved in the sense that the president has all but dissed the Nobel Prize winner of one of probably the most popular Venezuelan politician in the country today. So again, a lot of questions probably should have been asked before grant day one, but it's all going to come out in the wash. Whether it's positive or negative remains to be seen.

[Paul Sweeney]

Aaron, about 30 seconds left. What do we know about the existing situation in Venezuela? Can this government keep it together or is it, do we run the risk of some type of chaos ensuing?

[Aaron David Miller]

You know, borrow a line from Sam Adams in our revolution when he said basically we in reference to the British, where they're going to hang together, hang separately. It would seem to me that the Maduro government, which the administration has described as literally a crime syndicate, has a stake in, in trying to maintain a degree of cohesion to see exactly how the United States, what kind of pressure is the United States going to bring? And can the acting president, Delsey Rodriguez, keep her feet in both camps, pleasing the Trump administration on one hand, but also keeping her ties with the current regime?

[Paul Sweeney]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. I'm Joe Matthew inviting you to join me for the Balance of Power podcast. Every day we deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including breaking news from Bloomberg's reporters and in depth conversations with lawmakers and administration officials that use you won't hear anywhere else. What are the policy changes the Trump administration is making that affect Washington and Wall street and drive your investment decisions? From tariffs to taxes, the rules are constantly changing, which is why you need to listen every day. We do it all live each weekday, then bring you the best conversations in the daily podcast. Catch up on the headlines you missed while you were at work. Listen on your way home for the top news of the day straight from our nation's capital and around the world. That's the Balance of Power podcast with me, Joe Matthew and Kailey Leinz. Listen on Apple, Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts.

[Karen Moscow]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Paul Sweeney]

Let's check in with Edward Price, nonresident senior fellow at nyu. And President Trump certainly made good on his strong rhetoric, really, over the last several months as it relates to Venezuela. What what is your view now that we've had a little bit of time to digest this news?

[Edward Price]

Hey, Paul. So on the one hand, it's a very, very good thing that the United States has the power and the reach to monitor and seize drug dealers and bad guys, even if those bad guys happen also to have a side hustle as the president of a sovereign country. On the other hand, it could prove in the long run to be a bad thing that any power seizes the president of any other power, even if that president is also a drug dealer. And this is a net calculation that we will not know the full effects of as people who watch, you know, monitor the situation, as the phrase goes, and watch history in real time probably for another 20 years. And that is another way of saying that maybe other powers elsewhere in the world will decide to, to follow this example. That said, they don't quite have the capability we did. And I'm very heartened to see that the United States can still pull this kind of thing off.

[Karen Moscow]

We can pull it off. But then what happens? You heard the president talk about how we'll run Venezuela, and the new president, Dulce Rodriguez, the acting president who's been sworn in, would work alongside the US what does that mean from where you sit, that the US Will run Venezuela?

[Edward Price]

I think it matters more what it means from where the Venezuelans sit. And it could be that the remnants of the Maduro regime do in fact comply, seeing as they're facing the barrel of a gun. It might be that they get on board. And let's not forget that Maduro himself offered some kind of deal on the oil industry, on the energy industry. But on the other hand, we don't know what run Venezuela means. It could be that Venezuela ends up in some kind of Further or extended civil collapse. The economy has lost about 3/4 of its GDP in recent years. Its total energy production has been down annualized 8% between 2011 and 2021. So it's already more or less on its knees. And I would suggest that we're at something of a fork in the road. Yeah.

[Paul Sweeney]

What do you think next steps are likely to be here in Venezuela? Because I guess what we all want to avoid is something where the US and its resources really need to get involved here. How do you think this might play out?

[Edward Price]

Well, again, as I say, this is a widespread. My money would be on the Venezuelans getting in line. Broadly, the United States has demonstrated an incredible capability. And part of the reason that we had our fleet there for so long, I imagine, was to get people to think in Venezuela about whether or not they actually wanted us to put boots on the ground or continue with a second wave military strike. And I would add in as well that it's important to look at what Venezuelans think. And Venezuelans around the world and also in Venezuela do seem to be very pleased that Maduro is gone. Maduro was and is a bad guy. We're going to find out just how bad at noon and in the coming weeks, no doubt. So I think the Venezuelans will probably welcome this liberation, if you like, albeit there are elements within Venezuela and within Colombia and of course within Cuba and Russia that would probably want to see something else go down.

[Karen Moscow]

Well, let's talk a little bit about Russia, but in the context of whether this ousting gives Putin the green light to renew efforts to topple Vladimir Zelensky, whether China can push forward with removing Taiwan's president.

[Edward Price]

So this is the multi billion dollar question. I think the Secretary of State Marco Rubio has put forward the proposition that the United States has the right to break international if it is enforcing its domestic law. And that's another way of saying that the United States has long looked at international law askew because of course, the United States is based on its constitutional law and cannot supersede constitutional law. So we will do what we want to do in the world. And as I say, Maduro is and was a bad guy. So I think in the short term it's a good thing that we did it. Putin has tried to assassinate Zelensky more than once. And I'm sure there are a few officials in, in Taiwan that the Chinese would like to get their hands on and we could well have let the genie out of the bottle. Good question. On this kidnapping of foreign leaders as a new norm. I mean, the caveat again is that the United States can do it. We just rolled over Chinese air defense systems and we have the best intelligence and military in the world. So whether other countries can do it is an open question. But I think you're right to suggest.

[Paul Sweeney]

That they may try how worried should Cuba be? Should Greenland be Colombia today?

[Edward Price]

Well, I mean, my eyes are on Greenland. I've always said to you guys that I think the president is serious in his foreign policy declarations, and there is a strategic sense in some way, a strategic rationale for the United States controlling Greenland, because the president rightly points out there are Russian and Chinese incursions in that area. And it's going to get more and more as climate change continues. I think Mexico should probably have a think about how many cartel members it's harboring. And as for Cuba, again, we've long had a relationship that is adversarial with Cuba, and I wouldn't myself be opposed to a similar operation there. But of course you have to then, as you've pointed out in these questions, start to wonder about what kind of international environment you're introducing.

[Karen Moscow]

This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live each weekday 10am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. One question here's why there isn't more fear in the Fear Index. One topic here's why debt is now.

[Paul Sweeney]

A driving political force. One succinct explanation here's why NATO needs better drone defenses.

[Karen Moscow]

You've got questions about the business stories that affect your world. Let Bloomberg give you the answers. Here's why Europe is taking years to.

[Paul Sweeney]

Phase out Russian gas.

[Karen Moscow]

Join Stephen Carroll for here's why, the podcast that drills into one news story each week. Here's why Big Tech's soaring valuations have some worried and explains it in just a few minutes with the help of one of our 3,000 journalists and analysts across the globe.

[Paul Sweeney]

This current transition with AI is happening very quickly. When people buy EVs, they generally are quite happy with them. Bitcoin is pretty firmly an institutional play.

[Karen Moscow]

Look for new episodes of here's why every Friday on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or anywhere else you listen.

[Edward Price]

Here's why AI isn't taking your job yet.

[Karen Moscow]

Subscribe to here's why Today, wherever you get your podcasts.