Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast: Chevron, US Oil Stocks Rally as Trump Vows Venezuela Revival

Date: January 5, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu, Paul Sweeney
Key Guests: Vincent Piazza (Bloomberg Intelligence - Energy), Will Lee & George Ferguson (Bloomberg Intelligence - Aerospace & Defense), Aaron David Miller (Carnegie Endowment), Edward Price (NYU)

Episode Overview

This episode examines the sweeping market and geopolitical implications following a US military operation that removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Hosts Paul Sweeney and Karen Moscow draw on Bloomberg Intelligence's expertise to explore ramifications for global oil markets, US defense strategies, and international law, with a particular focus on Chevron and other US oil stocks rallying as President Trump vows to “revive” Venezuela’s energy sector.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Oil Sector & US Industry Impacts

(Segment: 01:11 – 05:04)
Guest: Vincent Piazza, Senior Equity Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Chevron’s Long Game: Chevron has maintained a presence in Venezuela for nearly a century, persevering through cycles of nationalization and privatization.

  “Chevron has been there. They've had a foothold in that country throughout the more controversial times. And so they are a direct beneficiary.” — Vincent Piazza (01:32)

• Infrastructure Decay and Recovery Timeline: The state of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is poor due to years of underinvestment. Prior peak production was over 3 million barrels per day, compared to around 1 million now.

  “It's going to take a lot of time and a lot of investment to get back to that... This is going to be a slow grind.” — Vincent Piazza (01:50)

• Winners and Losers:

  • Winners: US Gulf Coast refiners are positioned to benefit most, as the Venezuelan heavy crude is well-suited to their refinery configurations.

    “The one group that will likely benefit the most is really the US Gulf coast refining sector because of their slate, because of what barrels that they need to maximize their refining capacity.” — Piazza (02:32)

  • Losers: Canadian oil sands producers (e.g., Canadian Natural Resources, Synovus Energy, Suncor Energy) may face price pressures as Venezuelan heavy crude returns to the market.

    “There will be a steady bleed south of those prices as more flows come from Venezuela.” — Piazza (04:20)

2. US Military Action: Geopolitical Repercussions & Defense Sector Outlook

(Segment: 07:02 – 13:09)
Guests: Will Lee (Aerospace & Defense Analyst), George Ferguson (Sr. Analyst, Aerospace/Defense/Airlines)

• Operation Absolute Resolve: The raid that removed Maduro is seen as a limited action, not an escalation to larger-scale conflict.

  “...Trump administration, this defense strike was a limited military action. It isn't increased expansion in military role in nation building.” — Will Lee (07:47)

• Shift in US Strategy: The US is refocusing on Latin America to limit Russian and Chinese influence, especially in Venezuela’s resource sectors.

  “The Trump administration is turning back...and saying, hey, this is...an area where we're going to be the primary influencer. We don't need sort of Russian and Chinese meddling around here.” — George Ferguson (09:11)

• Pentagon's Focus Stays on China: Despite the Latin America pivot, China remains the Pentagon’s top “pacing threat.”

  “That pacing threat, I think, still is China. And so you're going to still see the majority of the money spent on systems that are needed in Asia to project power.” — Ferguson (09:58)

• Defense Spending Outlook: The defense budget is expected to rise gradually after a major reconciliation bill provided a one-time boost; no step-change expansion expected.

  “...the defense spending will probably rise gradually. Not, not anything that's going to be a step function increase.” — Will Lee (11:05)

• Strained Resources and Burden-Sharing:

  “It's always sort of stretched too thin. I just, you know, I think that's part of the discussion that Trump is having with Europe right now…We really need you to sort of step up, step up not only your manpower but your capabilities.” — Ferguson (12:23)

3. Diplomatic Risks & Uncertainty: What Happens After Regime Change?

(Segment: 14:29 – 19:52)
Guest: Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment

• Cautious Optimism with Many Unknowns: The US removed a "very bad man," but key questions about long-term policy, costs, and outcomes persist.

  “When the US deploys its forces abroad, it needs to ask some pretty basic questions. Not just can we, but should we? What's next and what's it going to cost?” — Aaron David Miller (15:04)

• Regional Fallout: Neighboring countries eye the situation warily, with strong initial condemnation from Colombia and Cuba.

  “The Colombians already come out against us pretty strongly. So is the Cubans. 80, 80 people, civilians and military were killed in this operation...32 of the 80 were Cuban security personnel.” — Miller (16:40)

• Risk of Instability: The Maduro government is likely trying to stay cohesive, but the risk of chaos remains high.

  “The Maduro government...has a stake in, in trying to maintain a degree of cohesion to see exactly...what kind of pressure is the United States going to bring?” — Miller (19:14)

4. International Law, Precedent, and Potential for Wider Repercussions

(Segment: 21:12 – 26:42)
Guest: Edward Price, Nonresident Senior Fellow, NYU

• US Action Sets a Precedent: Removing a sitting foreign head of state may embolden other powers or undermine norms.

  “It could prove in the long run to be a bad thing that any power seizes the president of any other power, even if that president is also a drug dealer.” — Edward Price (21:31)

• Venezuelan Response: The future depends on how remaining government elements and the population react; the country's economy and oil output are in severe distress.

  “Its total energy production has been down annualized 8% between 2011 and 2021. So it's already more or less on its knees.” — Price (22:38)

• International Ramifications: There’s concern the move could justify similar actions by other global powers (e.g., Russia, China) under the logic of “enforcing domestic law.”

  “That is another way of saying that maybe other powers elsewhere in the world will decide to, to follow this example.” — Price (21:51) “We could well have let the genie out of the bottle. Good question. On this kidnapping of foreign leaders as a new norm.” — Price (24:45)

• Potential Hotspots: Russia, China, Cuba, Colombia, and even Greenland are raised as places to watch for potential spillover.

  “I think Mexico should probably have a think about how many cartel members it's harboring. And as for Cuba...I wouldn't myself be opposed to a similar operation there.” — Price (25:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On US Long-Term Oil Benefits:
  “Eventually, yes, when you think about where those flows are headed, the one major beneficiary...is really the US Gulf coast refining sector." — Vincent Piazza (02:32)

• On Precedent of Regime Change:
  “It could prove in the long run to be a bad thing that any power seizes the president of any other power, even if that president is also a drug dealer." — Edward Price (21:31)

• On the Risks of Foreign Operations:
  “When the US deploys its forces abroad, it needs to ask some pretty basic questions. Not just can we, but should we? What's next and what's it going to cost?” — Aaron David Miller (15:04)

• On Military Overextension:
  “It's always sort of stretched too thin...We really need you [Europe] to sort of step up...” — George Ferguson (12:23)

• On International Reactions:
  “Russians are already concerned about this, convinced that if the Americans control the largest proven oil reserves in the world that they'll flood the market and price of Russian crude is going to is going to drop.” — Aaron David Miller (17:30)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | Guest(s) | |--------------|------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------| | 01:11-05:04 | Venezuela’s oil future, Chevron, US refinery impact | Vincent Piazza | | 07:02-13:09 | US military action, defense contractors, defense budget | Will Lee, George Ferguson | | 14:29-19:52 | Diplomatic, regional risk, regime change uncertainty | Aaron David Miller | | 21:12-26:42 | International law precedents and global politics | Edward Price |

Conclusion

This episode delivers a comprehensive analysis of the US-led change in Venezuela, addressing immediate market implications—especially for oil and defense equities—and probing deeper geopolitical questions about precedent, international order, and regional stability. The consensus among analysts: there are high stakes, slow-moving gains for US interests (especially in oil refining), and considerable risks for both international law and US allies in a newly unsettled hemisphere.