Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast: FedEx Raises Profit Outlook on Network Overhaul

Date: March 20, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu
Key Guests: Lee Costco (Senior Transport Logistics & Shipping Analyst), Diana Gomes (Senior Equity Research Analyst), Jodi Laurie (Credit Analyst), Randall Williams (US Sports Business Reporter)

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on FedEx's latest earnings report amid a major operational overhaul, its raised profit outlook, and the broader implications for investors. The show also touches on Unilever's potential food business sale, consumer sector pressures, and major developments in the business of sports, including the WNBA's collective bargaining agreement and the college basketball landscape.

1. FedEx Earnings and Strategic Overhaul

(Main Segment: 01:56–05:21)

Highlights:

• FedEx beats expectations in Q3, driven by its express/parcel business.
• Raised full-year guidance reflects confidence in the ongoing restructuring.
• The Freight (LTL) segment continues to struggle, though this is an industry-wide trend.
• Company prepares to spin off Freight unit in June to sharpen focus and enhance productivity.

Detailed Insights:

• Dividend of Results:
  • "It definitely was a nice print for their third quarter, which includes their peak season in December. You know it shows us that they're really executing on their plan." – Lee Costco, 02:23
• Segment Performance:
  • “The beat was really driven by their express business … their freight business … continues to struggle. That’s really not a company-specific thing, that’s an industry thing.” – Lee Costco, 02:32
  • "The LTL market has been pretty weak over the last year and we expect that weakness to continue." – Lee Costco, 02:44
• Profit Guidance & Long-Term Targets:
  • “They did put out a $25 EPS target for 2029 … we think that might be conservative if the company continues to execute.” – Lee Costco, 02:52
• Freight Spinoff:
  • “They are going to spin off their freight unit … I think this will really sharpen FedEx’s focus. The LTL business is the largest less than truckload carrier in North America.” – Lee Costco, 03:38
  • "Only doing that, you know, they're doing things that, that was … unheard of maybe three, five years ago." – Lee Costco, 04:14
  • “You layer on top of that technology investments to enhance productivity, you know, this could be a company that can, you know, generate earnings, you know, north of that $25 number.” – Lee Costco, 04:30
• Tariff Refund Lawsuit:
  • “They really didn't talk that much about it on the earnings call. But it probably would be a pass through that they get back to their customers, so it’s not really going to impact their bottom line.” – Lee Costco, 05:06

2. Unilever’s Potential Sale of Food Business

(Segment: 07:44–12:47)

Highlights:

• Unilever in talks to sell its food business to McCormick in a strategic refocusing.
• Goal: Prioritize higher-growth premium skincare and wellness segments.
• Estimated value: About $33 billion; a major portfolio transformation for Unilever.
• The move reflects ongoing industry trends in consumer staples.

Detailed Insights:

• Reason for Sale:
  • "The strategy … would be really to simplify and refocus more on the higher growth premium skincare [and] well-being beauty portfolio.” – Diana Gomes, 08:22
• Valuation Discussion:
  • “Valuation … a potential nine times to EBIT multiple … which would be aligned with packaged food multiples and slightly below Unilever’s multiple at the moment." – Diana Gomes, 09:08
• Industry Trend:
  • “Companies have been trying to simplify and get more focus so that the investment in their premium innovation allows them to better differentiate themselves from private label.” – Diana Gomes, 10:49
• Investor Expectations:
  • “Staples had been known for that stability on income … attractive dividend yields as well.” – Diana Gomes, 12:15

3. Consumer Sector: Pressure and Performance

(Segment: 15:09–20:44)

Highlights:

• Discusses vulnerabilities in leisure, travel, and hospitality amid inflation and geopolitical risk.
• Higher income consumers largely maintain discretionary spending; lower-rated companies face pressure.
• Interest rates and refinancing: 2026 debt manageable, but more concern for 2027–2028.

Detailed Insights:

• K-Shaped Economy in Action:
  • “We’ve been talking about the K-shaped economy ... but we haven’t necessarily seen a broader scale effect of this inflation pressure on the consumer when it comes to higher income consumers.” – Jodi Laurie, 15:49
  • “It’s only the lowest rated companies that we are concerned about, the ones that are operating on a tight sort of cushion at the moment, such as Six Flags, such as Hertz …” – Jodi Laurie, 16:33
• Rate Hike Risks:
  • “A rate hike would really be bad news for a lot of these weak borrowers with a lot of debt coming up, wouldn’t it?” – Scarlet Fu, 16:54
  • “…for 2026, we actually don’t have that much debt outstanding ... as you get into 2027, 2028, that’s when you start feeling the pressure.” – Jodi Laurie, 17:16
• Carnival Example:
  • “They’ve been proactively deleveraging…. EBITDA margins, not that much [of an impact] … might be a different story for net income.” – Jodi Laurie, 17:49

4. Spotlight: Leisure Company Credit and Caesars Deal Rumors

(Segment: 18:41–20:44)

Highlights:

• Possible take-private deal for Caesars, raising creditor concerns.
• Bonds trading below par signals skepticism about creditor-friendliness of any restructuring.
• Cites legacy issues from Caesars’ past LBO and restructuring.

Notable Quote:

• “…if they’re looking at ways to skirt conversations with key counterparties, I’m a little bit concerned when it comes to creditors, particularly when you look at where the bonds are trading …" – Jodi Laurie, 19:06

5. The Business of Sports: WNBA, March Madness, and NIL Impact

(Segment: 23:07–29:13)

Highlights:

• WNBA’s explosive growth prompts higher player salaries and a new CBA deal amidst labor tension.
• Media rights deal secured (Amazon, ESPN, Comcast) worth at least $200 million/year.
• Ongoing debate over NIL and transfer portal in college basketball leads to competitive balance shifts and “Wild West” free agency feel.

Memorable Moments & Quotes:

• On WNBA Player Salaries:
  • “When Caitlin Clark was drafted…she was going to be making $76,000 or $78,000. You think about the growth she brought to the league … their salaries didn’t reflect that but they will soon.” – Sports Analyst, 23:38
• Labor Tension:
  • “…in all my years of covering sports ... I’ve never heard anyone make comments like Nafisa Collier said about Kathy Engelbert.” – Sports Analyst, 24:36
• Media Rights Impact:
  • “That deal is going to pay them at minimum, $200 million a year … so the players were having conversations about it … if all of this money is rising, where is it? When is it going to come down to us?” – Sports Analyst, 25:18
• College Basketball and NIL:
  • “You have more of these results and more upsets happening because college players are being paid more. So they have the choice to go and play for a smaller school … offered them an incredible price.” – Sports Analyst, 27:24
  • “That’s the manipulative part of this … Why wouldn’t you try to be a college basketball player for as long as you possibly could if you have no aspirations or you’re not good enough to go to the NBA?” – Sports Analyst, 28:14
  • "I would again, I just kind of characterize it as the Wild West." – Paul, 29:08

6. Notable Quotes & Timestamp Index

• “It definitely was a nice print for their third quarter, which includes their peak season in December.” – Lee Costco, 02:23
• “They did put out a $25 EPS target for 2029 … we think that might be conservative if the company continues to execute.” – Lee Costco, 02:52
• “They are going to spin off their freight unit … this will really sharpen FedEx’s focus.” – Lee Costco, 03:38
• “Staples had been known for that stability on income … attractive dividend yields as well.” – Diana Gomes, 12:15
• “We’ve been talking about the K-shaped economy … but we haven’t necessarily seen a broader scale effect of this inflation pressure on the consumer when it comes to higher income consumers.” – Jodi Laurie, 15:49
• “When Caitlin Clark was drafted…she was going to be making $76,000 or $78,000.” – Sports Analyst, 23:38
• “…in all my years of covering sports ... I’ve never heard anyone make comments like Nafisa Collier said about Kathy Engelbert.” – Sports Analyst, 24:36
• "I would again, I just kind of characterize it as the Wild West." – Paul, 29:08

7. Timestamps for Key Segments

• FedEx Outlook & Restructuring: 01:56–05:21
• Unilever Food Sale Discussion: 07:44–12:47
• Consumer Sector & Leisure Credit: 15:09–20:44
• Business of Sports (WNBA, March Madness, NIL): 23:07–29:13

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive update on FedEx’s transformation and improved outlook, highlights evolving strategies by giants like Unilever, examines consumer pressures in key leisure sectors, and explores rapidly changing economics in women’s sports and college athletics. Filled with analyst insight and direct-from-the-field expertise, it delivers actionable intelligence for investors and market watchers alike.