Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (3:14)

Wow, that's quite a call, Mike McGlone. Yeah, the whole system coming down. I mean, for now people are saying that there is. We're shaping up to be the worst November for Bitcoin since 2022, which was around the time that saying Bankman Fried and his company, you know, basically fell apart. Talk a little bit about the Bitcoin ETFs and how demand and inflows into those products drove a lot of the rally in spot bitcoin overall and perhaps are removing a big source of support right now.

Mike McGlone (3:45)

Well, I'm glad you went there, Scarlett, because my primary goal the last few years when Bloomberg we launched a Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index idea was eventually for the whole space to be tracked by widely by ETFs included that index. And once we got there, I figured to put in a plateau. Now we've gotten there and I think it's plateau. So basically we've gone from the geeks and the insiders who made a lot of money pushing it over to retail. In the big picture, people want to catch up and chase the performance and they're finding out it's poor performance near a peak, they're piling on to the biggest ETFs ever. It's classic peak bubbles. So if you want a bubble in all markets, it starts with cryptos. Maybe not equities, but it's as bad as it was for dot com bubble in 2000, in 1999. Now the whole thing's going back downward. And by the end of the year, should it recover, I look at it as we need to just purge millions of these things that track nothing that are worth billions of dollars. One good example is number nine on the Bitcoin crypt page is Dogecoin. It's worth $21 billion. It tracks nothing. It was launches a joke.

Paul (4:44)

Wow. So we had Eric Baltunas on just earlier and he said most of the ETF buyers are still in it. They haven't sold. About 5 or 6% have sold or seen outflows out of the ETF. So the ETF flows are kind of hanging in there at this point. So I have to see, do we know who is selling, Mike?

Mike McGlone (5:04)

Yeah, well, certainly some of the OGs people have been in for a long time. Once they heard that Trump was so involved, they wanted to get out. But Eric has been on top of this. He nailed it very beginning with the launching the etf. The problem is, I hear the average price for all ETFs since they've been launched for Bitcoin is around 89,000. We're below that. So we're getting below there. And also they've got double the volatility of what they left. They left the stock market to get better performance. They're getting worse. This is classic peak stuff.

Paul (5:29)

Paul.

Mike McGlone (5:29)

I'm worried it's just going to. I'm worried about that Grinch effect until the end of the year when everybody expects, oh, Santa Claus is going to come. But Grinch takes out, Grinch shows up.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (5:38)

Okay, maybe Mike, but the President and his family are very much invested in Bitcoin. In the crypto industry at large. Is there not a Trump put here?

Mike McGlone (5:47)

Well, that's a key thing. What are they going to do to make a difference? Strategic Bitcoin reserve, though, that was floated last year, didn't work out. We have the president's son calling for it to go much higher in the future. We might have laws against those kind of things because there's a vested interest. I don't know how it's going to work out, but it was that Faustian bargain. I'm worried about that just imploding now. And the key question is, what stops it? What are they going to do to make it change? The bottom line is there's so many millions of these things that are just pie in the sky. Speculative digital assets, they just need to purge and. And then we'll go back. And I'm afraid that means bitcoin's first stop on this move is really towards 50,000. It's got to really end the year up on the year to show anything other than that. I'm afraid 50,000 is the next key level, which means Domino's tumble. And the questions, what can they do to make a difference, maybe get the Fed to ease, which means more inflation, which means they're not going to get elected.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (6:34)

All right, well, all of that, the macro headwinds are the same as for any other asset class, I guess in many ways. Mike McClone of Bloomberg Intelligence, senior commodity strategist, joining us on Bitcoin.

Paul (6:45)

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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Paul (9:05)

Talk to Sam Pazelli because it's Monday and that's what we do. We talk health care. And you want to Talk Health Care. Dr. Sam Pazelli. He's over there in London, I think. I haven't checked if he's bad. I mean, who the heck knows what these people over there in London. But he's the best there is out there, folks on global health care and we appreciate getting a few minutes of his time. Sam, this obesity story is become the story for your world. I mean it's almost like forget about some of these other issues you guys have been dealing with, whether, you know, other diseases and therapeutics and so on. It's all about obesity drugs. Talk to about Novo Nordisk stock taking it on the chin here.

Baillie Gifford Representative (9:40)

Yeah, hi Paul. And just for actuality I'm in France at the minute, so told you. But, but, but only, but only another 12 hours.

Paul (9:50)

Okay?

Baillie Gifford Representative (9:51)

Now today's news from Novo Nordisk is not about obesity. It's about a drug, semaglutide in a pill form that they've tested in Alzheimer's disease. And the theory was, and there was some evidence that people who were taking the very first version of the GLP1 drug, so Victoza or liraglutide, they had a lower risk of developing Alzheimer's when you looked at historic or retrospective data and there's animal models, et cetera. So they thought, well, it's worth a try. And it didn't work out. They said that they're seeing some impacts in some biomarkers, etc. And we'll find out next week what biomarkers. But the trial didn't work out. And the question here is, was the theory wrong or is the drug not good enough? Is the pill enough? And we know the pill doesn't do as well in obesity as the injection. Should they have tested the injection?

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (10:47)

That's a good question. And you mentioned that the ingredient here that we're paying attention to is semaglitude, which I hope I'm pronouncing correctly. Does that mean that this ingredient and Alzheimer's are just a no go from here on out or does there need to be more testing before we can determine that?

Baillie Gifford Representative (11:02)

Yeah, there needs to be more testing, but who's going to do that? I mean, having failed now, who's going to put the money in to test it? Now Lilly does have an Alzheimer's business in a completely different, with a different set of drugs and they have a more punchy product once weekly with a relatively easily administered pen. That would be interesting to see whether that helps. And you know, sort of you get more, much more drug in the body or maybe redesign it a bit. So it really does depend on how much appetite for risk these companies have. And Lilly now with just over, literally just over trillion dollar market cap Maybe they should give it a go. You know, it would be magic if this thing. It literally would be magic if this thing just helped so many different diseases.

Paul (11:49)

Sam, talk to us about just the market for dementia. Alzheimer's is one part of it. I would think that A, it's a big market and B, it's got to be a growing market with people living longer. How do you guys think about it and how do you play it if you're an investor?

Baillie Gifford Representative (12:04)

Yeah, it is a significant societal issue, number one. And I think there are not many families who would say that they haven't experienced it if they have older people in their, in their extended family. So the market has humongous potential, but you need drugs that actually treat the disease. Remember, by the time you have Alzheimer's, that is a full blown dementia of the Alzheimer's type or other types. It's a bit late. That means there's a lot that's already happened. So you need to go early. And early means long, expensive trials. And Lilly is doing that with their assets. So fingers crossed, we'll find out in the next two or three years where they're going early with these assets. Roche is doing it too would be beneficial, right?

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (12:51)

I mean, the tests with the pill form of Ozempic was definitely a lottery ticket. If it worked, great. If not, we're back to the drawing board. Are there any effective treatments right now against dementia or Alzheimer's?

Baillie Gifford Representative (13:04)

Well, by effective, I mean, it's tough to say, but there are drugs that lower this thing that is viewed as a, as a critical part of the Alzheimer's disease, which is amyloid plaques in your brain. They do lower it. Lilly's got that drug, Bio got an equivalent drug. Roche is trying a similar approach. And you do slow down the degeneration. You don't stop it, you slow it down. So what we really want is to stop people getting to that degeneration. Try and get them before they have full blown Alzheimer's or dementia. So that's called mild cognitive impairment. Try and slow that down to give them another 10, 12, 20 years of dignified life.

Paul (13:48)

So where do you think we are in a timeframe for something like that, Sam? Is that measured in a couple of years or more than that?

Baillie Gifford Representative (13:56)

Well, so Lilly is literally trying that. And we'll find out whether. And they have the better drug in this space. We'll find out whether in the next two or three years. Remember, these things are trials that need to be run until you start seeing a difference. They get to that point. And of course, then society has to decide how are we going to pay for this, how many people? Because there's a large market, right? How many people are we going to want to treat with the prices of these drugs, whatever they are, even if it's $10,000 a year, right. And they are on their way to becoming worse. And we want to slow that down. You have 10 million people. I mean, this could be, this could be similar in terms of value to the obesity market. But you need the drug to do that. So that let's, let's wait and see. And Roche has got a new way of trying to do it and they're.

Express Employment Professionals Advertiser (14:49)

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Baillie Gifford Representative (14:49)

Also phase three to test that out.

Paul (14:51)

All right, Sam, thanks so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. Sam Fazelli, director of research for Global Industries and Senior Pharmaceuticals Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence Stay with us.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (15:01)

More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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I personally love to treat myself during the holiday season, so I definitely be taking Pandora up on this offer. Shop@pandora.net or your local Pandora store. Exclusions apply.

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Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (17:20)

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Paul (17:43)

Scarlet one of the I think the questions we get or maybe discussion points we have over the last month or so, month and a half has been is this a bubble? Is this an AI bubble? And I don't know, but I mean the people who are after the fact. After the fact, exactly. Right. So. But somebody who's supposed to talk about it like present tense is Michael Casper, senior U.S. equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. So Michael, I know you're having these conversations with your clients here. What are you saying?

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Bubble?

Paul (18:09)

No bubble as it relates to AI.

Michael Casper (18:10)

Yeah, Pretty much all the signposts for a bubble that we have identified so far are pointing towards no bubble.

Matthew Shettenhelm (18:16)

Right.

Michael Casper (18:16)

So if you look at the valuation picture of say the MAG7, so the hottest stocks today versus the hottest stocks in 2000, we're talking they're trading at about half the multiple. Microsoft, Cisco, intel and Dell, the four Horsemen and the Internet bubble we're trading at back at the top in 2000. And in fact the Mag 7 multiple has come down since 2021. So they're growing into their multiple. And you've obviously got a ton of fundamental support here. Earnings running well faster than the normal at the end of these melt up periods. So it's really pointing towards no bubble at the moment.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (18:48)

Okay. That might be the case for the Mag 7 for the companies at the heart of the whole AI revolution. But what about the ones that are kind of on the periphery on the side and the profitless tech companies that we talk about that are getting wrapped up in everything.

Michael Casper (18:59)

Yeah. So it's actually interesting you bring up profitless tech. My colleague N, she does thematics for us. She has a thematics AI universe and we've actually scanned that entire universe and we're talking large caps, small caps, micro caps. There's three companies in there that are unprofitable in the entire AI universe of, you know, nearly 50 companies. So there's really not a lot of unprofitability, especially within the core AI themes. And, and that's another just feather in the cap for this not being a bubble.

Paul (19:29)

How about the big tech companies using debt to fund a lot of question. Does that get raised the radar at all?

Michael Casper (19:36)

Yeah, so it's interesting that they might start dipping into debt markets. That was something that I read this morning on the terminal, actually. But so far, if you look at leverage ratios, right, so total debt to market cap or total debt to ebitda, those are actually significantly lower than where they were in 2000. And we've frankly been delevering pretty consistently throughout the post great financial crisis period. So leverage is actually below norms for the S&P 500. For the Russell 2000, it's pretty much closer to norms. So I'm not that worried about debt financing yet. Right, so there's plenty of room for companies to take on debt here.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (20:12)

Why are investors still so worried then? Why are they convinced that this is not sustainable?

Michael Casper (20:16)

Yeah, I think it's a bit of a paranoia. Right. We've gone up very far, very fast and we did look at some previous melt ups. So we're talking the end of the great, the lead up to the Great Depression cycle, the Internet bubble. Those are the classic melt ups. Our returns have been pretty fast, but they're still falling well short of that. So I think investors are a little bit worried that the returns have been so, so violent and so quick and that's adding to a little bit of worry. And of course, worry is a good thing. Right. So bubbles usually happen when nobody's worried about them. I like to think about 2000 and people always talk about, yeah, my taxi driver was telling me about some Internet stock. We're just really not having that right now. There's still plenty of worry in the system and that's a good thing for a bull market.

Paul (20:59)

Earnings pretty much done with the third quarter here. Are they enough to support this marketplace, do you think?

Michael Casper (21:05)

Yeah, I think earnings were phenomenal.

Matthew Shettenhelm (21:07)

Right.

Michael Casper (21:07)

There were some obviously bumps in the road on a company by company basis, but again, we pretty much doubled the pace of what consensus expectations were. If you look at 2026 expectations, those are holding pretty firm. We're looking at about 13% earnings growth for the year ahead. Again, comparing that to previous bubbles, even that's significantly higher than what we saw at the end. Bubbles are driven by fomo, not fundamentals. And certainly consensus expectations are strong and they're actually even strengthening in the Russell 2000, which has been an unloved group for quite some time. Things on the fundamental side looking pretty decent here.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (21:41)

What about on the technical side? I keep reading about how the s and P500 is still below its 50 day moving average, its short term trend line and it briefly fell below the 100 day moving average on Thursday. And because we are not going to get any fundamental data on the economy until after the FOMC decision, earnings season is over, there aren't a whole lot of catalysts from here on out until maybe next year.

Michael Casper (22:04)

Yeah, so, so one catalyst I'm looking at pretty intently is going to be the holiday spend.

Paul (22:09)

Right.

Michael Casper (22:09)

Like if that comes in a little bit better than we expect, that could be another catalyst for stocks. But certainly you mentioned the FOMC decision. I think a lot of this pullback has to do with Powell's hawkish comments about two weeks ago. You know, people just expecting a little more on the rate cut side than what we're going to get. And again, this just looks like a textbook pullback. Right. We're down what maybe 4 or 5% from, from all time highs on the S&P 500. On the Russell it's, it's approaching correction territory but still nothing really going as far as a bubble bursting.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (22:41)

Are you looking at bitcoin and crypto at all insofar as whether it's influencing equities or whether equities are influencing bitcoin? Because there's a lot of talk about the, the linkage between tech stocks and bitcoin.

Michael Casper (22:53)

Yeah, I think bitcoin is a good gauge of, of risk tolerance. I don't know about necessarily a fundamental linkage between bitcoin and stocks outside of maybe, you know, the names who's leading miners. I think, you know, stocks are, are the, the dog that wags the tail.

Paul (23:08)

Right.

Michael Casper (23:08)

And crypto is the tail here. But I think crypto is really kind of showing where the concerns lie in the equity markets and the risk is in the equity markets. And again that seems to be more with the Fed. What is the Fed going to do? Obviously Fed rate cuts would be good for bitcoin. Everybody thinks it's pretty stable. So I think that's really showing where the pressure points are for stocks.

Paul (23:30)

All right, Mike, appreciate it as always. Michael Casper, Bloomberg Intelligence senior U.S. equity research strategist given a certain thoughts on these markets here. AI Bubble. He doesn't think so. So keep an eye on that. The market's certainly trading higher today with the S and P up 1.4% and the NASDAQ up 2.3%.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (23:47)

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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Paul (24:52)

Black Friday is here and Pandora Jewelry is offering up to four 40% off store wide and sitewide now through December 2nd. Explore jewelry designed to last beyond the season. From classic charms to modern rings, bracelets, earrings and more. Whether you're holiday shopping or treating yourself.

Matthew Shettenhelm (25:13)

Now'S the perfect time to find something special.

Michael Casper (25:16)

Every year I look forward to going out and picking out some nice pieces of jewelry for all the women in my life. From my wife to my mother to even my aunts. Everyone's getting something. And with Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals, how can you go wrong?

Paul (25:30)

I personally love to treat myself during the holiday season, so I definitely be taking Pandora up on this offer. Shop@pandora.net or your local Pandora store. Exclusions apply.

Express Employment Professionals Advertiser (25:45)

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Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (26:07)

Visit your nearby Lowe's on Colorado street in Kennewick.

Podcast Announcer (26:15)

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple, Apple, CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

Paul (26:30)

All right, let's go switch gears a little bit. President Trump, when he came into office, he was widely considered to be a deregulatory president. Will allow a lot of industries maybe to consolidate. One of those industries is the broadcasting industry, the radio and TV business. But he was out with a tweet recently saying he maybe doesn't support that anymore. And that was a big U turn for a Lot of people, particularly in the television industry. So we want to go to the expert, Matthew Shettenhelm. He is the media litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's one of the best on the street, folks. But his credibility with me took a big, big hit when I found out he does not carry cash. And for an old banker like me who's got a wad of cash in his pocket all the time, that was a problem.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (27:11)

But people steal credit cards, and therefore he's out.

Paul (27:13)

He's just the younger generation. They don't have cash. They just don't do the cash thing. Hey, Matt, how much of a surprise was it that President Trump tweets out that maybe he's not behind consolidation in the TV industry?

Matthew Shettenhelm (27:26)

You're never gonna let me live that one. Never, Paul. But so it's a moderate surprise. So it's not a complete surprise because Newsmax has participated before the FCC and has been one of the few voices that said, don't do this. Don't deregulate this space. And what you really see here, President Trump latching onto to an article written on Newsmax's platform opposing the easing of this national ownership cap. What's in play here is that there's current FCC regulation says no company can reach more than 39% of U.S. households. And companies like Nexstar and Sinclair want to go way beyond 39%. In fact, Nexstar has a pending deal before the FCC. They just filed their application on Thursday or Friday, last week to acquire Tegna. That would take them to 70, 80% of the country. And it depends on the FCC deregulating in this space. So Trump latching on to Newsmax's opposition because he's concerned about the TV networks growing larger is a concern. It's a real risk. I'm not convinced yet that it's going to lead to real FCC policy. I think this FCC wants to deregulate in this space, and I think there's going to be a pushback against Trump's view on this.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (28:52)

Okay, so the FCC is headed by Brendan Carr, who's been very active in making sure that he's out there doing the president's bidding. Are you saying that Brendan Carr is going to defy President Trump?

Matthew Shettenhelm (29:03)

Yeah, so that's the big question here. The FCC used to operate as an independent agency, meaning even if the president had a view on something, the FCC could chart its own course. That's not going to work anymore. The way this FCC is operating, if the president takes a firm view on on something the FCC is not going to defy it because effectively the President can fire the FCC chairman then and, you know, there's no, no future job prospect if you defy the President. What I'm not convinced about is, you know, this was one social media post from President Trump and, you know, talking about concerns about letting the broadcast networks, abc, cbs, Fox get bigger. What I think there could be now in, you know, in back channels is some education from the FCC to the White House that says he easing the national ownership cap. It would let Sinclair nextstar get bigger, probably, but it doesn't necessarily mean the broadcast networks will get bigger. There's still an independent check on that even if we, we ease this, this cap. So ultimately, if Trump is against this, the FCC is not going ahead with it, in my view. But I think there's still room for, for Trump's position to evolve on this.

Paul (30:20)

So, I mean, the reality is, I mean, this is an industry, broadcast television industry, that is arguably on life support vis a vis. Forget about cable television, which itself is on life support. They survived that onslaught. Now it's just all about digital and social media. And I would think the industry would have an open, would have an effective argument, not just to the doj, but to the President as well.

Matthew Shettenhelm (30:43)

Absolutely. I mean, that's the case that the national association of Broadcasters has made to the FCC that these ownership restrictions, you know, which come from the 1970s or even earlier than that, really make no sense in the world we live in today where, where so much video that is consumed doesn't come from, from broadcast, it comes over the Internet. And there are no artificial caps on, on how much those companies can reach. And broadcasters are left to try to fight with one hand tied behind their back with these, these, you know, ancient FCC rules on the books. And the Republicans, Brendan Carr included, strongly agree with that message. And so it's going to be, I think, a little bit of a communication effort that needs to happen between the FCC and the White House to. And the real question will be, how does that play out? Does Trump's social media post actually translate to real policy? I'm not convinced that it will yet.

Paul (31:46)

All right, Matt, appreciate it as always. Matt Chittenholm, he's a media litigation analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence. He's based down there in D.C. this.

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Michael Casper (33:50)

Says me love you.

Host/Interviewer (Scarlett) (33:51)

Day 3 Woke me up at 3am whispering in Furbish. I think it summoned something. Day 5 I'm starting asking for life advice. Day 7 It blinked at me like it knew I blinked back. We've reached an understanding. I fear it. I love it. 5 stars Erin M. Find your perfect gift this holiday on Amazon.