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- [00:01]
Jacob Goldstein
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- [00:30]
James Choc Mok
Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge.
- [00:33]
Carol Massar
Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times. With the times. You're playing the lute.
- [00:52]
Jacob Goldstein
Yeah.
- [00:52]
Carol Massar
And it sounds pretty good, right?
- [00:53]
Jacob Goldstein
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report. This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com.
- [01:35]
James Choc Mok
Bloomberg.
- [01:36]
Carol Massar
Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.
- [01:42]
Jacob Goldstein
This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journal analysts around the world.
- [01:52]
Carol Massar
So this is for the fourth quarter. The look back, we are looking at EPS A$95 a share. That's a penny light from what the street was expecting. Fourth quarter operating margin that came in smack in line with what the street was forecasting, 11.7%. Here's to the outlook. Amazon sees first quarter net sales 1 73.5 billion to 1 78.5 billion. The estimate on the street kind of in the middle of that 175 point billion. So maybe potentially it could be below that based on that range. Taking a look at shares of Amazon, they're lower in the aftermarket, down by.
- [02:31]
Tim Stenovec
About 4.4% now, 3.9%. Bouncing around a little bit, but still lower by two and a half percent now.
- [02:37]
Carol Massar
Yeah, they are definitely bouncing around. So let's see, let's go through some more of the numbers.
- [02:40]
Tim Stenovec
Yeah, the one that you hit that really sticks out, Carol, is first quarter net sales. That outlook sees net sales 173 and a half to 178 and a half billion dollars. That's within estimates of 1.75.54. Amazon sees first quarter operating income coming in. This is really light. 16 and a half billion to 21 and a half billion. The estimate was for 22.24 billion dollars. So profit expected to take a hit. At least not looking like what analysts wanted to see. Again, 22.4 to 4 billion is what analysts want to see. First quarter operating income set to look 16 and a half to $21.5 billion.
- [03:19]
Carol Massar
All right, let's continue with a look back there. Fourth quarter North America net sales $127.08 billion. The EST estimate was slightly above that at 127.21 billion.
- [03:31]
Tim Stenovec
You see this CAPEX number now we're getting the good stuff. 2026 capex about $200 billion that way exceeds estimates. That estimate was for $146.11 billion. Shares moving lower in the after hours now down by about 7% 8%.
- [03:48]
Carol Massar
All right, so we are seeing some pressure here. Hey, let's go through. There's more results as we mentioned. Net sales 213.39 billion. For the fourth quarter the EST was 211.49 billion according to Bloomberg consensus. Physical stores, let's actually go to online stores. Net sales 82.99 billion. That's pretty much what the street was expecting. The estimate was $82.3 billion. AWS net sales 35.58 billion was. The quarterly results for the fourth quarter estimate was for $34.88 billion. So a little bit better than what the street was expecting. And let's go to. We saw the eps. That was a pe. Where else do you want to go?
- [04:30]
Tim Stenovec
I want to go to some commentary. Amazon, I'm looking through the press release sees 2026 capex again 200 billion to estimates of 146.11 billion. That's the headline. That's the story. We're going to stick to that one throughout the program. We are going to get additional details. For example, Amazon saying that demand is strong for AI for chips. Robotics saying strong demand for its existing offerings. I'm looking through the press release.
- [04:55]
Carol Massar
Can I just say please go strong is demand for their shares because that stock right now Amazon shares are down about sent him in the aftermarket.
- [05:03]
Tim Stenovec
The company saying that growing 24%. Our fastest growth in 13 quarters. Advertising growing 22%. Stores growing briskly across North America. International chips business growing triple digit percentages year over Year. This growth is happening because we're continuing to innovate at a rapid pace and identify and knock down customer problems. This is a quote from Andy Jassy, president and CEO of the company. He says quote, with such strong demand for our existing offerings and seminal opportunities like AI chips, robotics and low earth orbit satellites, we expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026 and anticipate strong long term return on invested capital. That $200 billion is not what investors were expecting. Again, investors were expecting $146.11 billion. That is a huge increase from those expectations.
- [05:54]
Carol Massar
Yeah, right now shares of Amazon, they're down about 10, almost 11% here in the aftermarket. So that Capex line, just like we saw play out with Alphabet last night, a bit of a shocker and certain initially we have investors not liking that number. So again, Amazon seeking now 11% on that higher than expected 2026 CAPEX forecast. We also mentioned that companies forecast for the first quarter in terms of net sales 173.5 to 178.5 billion. Street estimate was 475.54 billion. So maybe a combination of potentially a lower mark when it comes to first quarter net sales along with that higher Capex certainly creating some stress in terms of investors. The share price now down about 10%. Tim, in the aftermarket looking through other.
- [06:42]
Tim Stenovec
Highlights, I mean this is a very long press release that goes through what the company has done over the last quarter. New agentic capabilities in transform new agentic AI capabilities for Amazon Connect. It's an AI tool that the company says enables contact centers to provide consistent personalized customer service experiences. AWS AI factories fast speeds ever for prime members globally in 2025 shares though still taking a hit in the after hours down more than 10%.
- [07:10]
Carol Massar
I also want to point out in terms of the guidance that we're getting from Amazon, they are saying that the Amazon guidance assumes no additional restructurings. Those restructurings I guess you could go as far as to say whether or not there's more layoffs. Keep in mind we just heard at the end of January, right that this company is cutting 16,000 corporate jobs worldwide in an effort to remove layers of bureaucracy and increase ownership. So we saw this company certain announcing some movements, some restructuring. So we'll have to get some more clarity about what that means, what possible additional restructuring could be coming. We'll look for that on the call.
- [07:44]
Tim Stenovec
Yeah, just looking at some updates here. 20:26 CAPEX Again this is the story here. This is the headline $200 billion above the average estimate of $146.11 billion.
- [07:55]
Carol Massar
All right, let's get to it. Putam Goyals with us. She's senior analyst for E Commerce and Athleisure for Bloomberg Intelligence. She joins us from BI headquarters out there in Princeton, New Jersey. Put them. Investors not loving it. Is it all about that CapEx number?
- [08:08]
Poonam Goyal
You know it is, but I think the CapEx number is fine. We were looking for $140 billion. $200 billion just continues to show that they're investing and I think, wait, that's $60 billion more.
- [08:21]
Tim Stenovec
That's a lot of money.
- [08:22]
Poonam Goyal
Yes, but they need to invest, Right? We know that Amazon has to continue to invest in cloud services, it needs to invest in AI. So there's a lot of catch up that needs to be done here. I think the run narrative here is still good. The underlying results were solid across both AWS and retail.
- [08:41]
Carol Massar
Interesting. And so even though they Talked about seeing first quarter net sales, 1 73.5 billion, 278.5 billion. Street estimate is kind of in the middle of that. 175.54. That's okay.
- [08:54]
Poonam Goyal
Yeah, that's okay. Like the results are good to. Okay. I think the numbers show that Amazon continues to plug away across its businesses and it is making progress. And I mean, we're happy with those numbers. We think it's making the right investments, we think it's moving in the right direction and we think it's growing profitably. The North America profit margins were better than expected and US at 35% is still respectable.
- [09:20]
Tim Stenovec
Okay, so if we're, if we're not too concerned about the capex here, why are we seeing investors react like this? Down as much as 10% in the after hours, down as much as 11% in the aftermath.
- [09:33]
Poonam Goyal
I think we'll have to see what they say on the call on where this capex is exactly going, what the backlog looks like. I think the call will give us a little more insight on to where they are investing and that'll be important. But I think, you know, expecting higher capex than what we had thought yesterday, especially after Alphabet's result, was what we were kind of expecting.
- [09:54]
Tim Stenovec
So. So the reason Carol and I are like fighting to get to ask you this question, because maybe we're, maybe we're going to the same place.
- [10:01]
Odoo/OnDeck Advertiser
So.
- [10:01]
Tim Stenovec
So Andy Jassy and in the, in his press release, in his comments actually has two sentences here and one of them does mention the $200 billion in capex. But, but he says there are seminal opportunities like AI chips, robotics and low earth orbit satellites. Therefore, we expect to invest about $200 billion in capex across Amazon in 2026 of those AI chips, robotics, low earth orbit satellites. Where do investors want to see the investment? Would they rather see them in AI and chips than in low earth orbit satellites? I mean, SpaceX kind of owns that.
- [10:37]
Poonam Goyal
I would agree with you there. I would like to see more on their core business rather than ancillary businesses.
- [10:43]
Carol Massar
So one of the things that caught my attention, I'm thinking about, you know, the jobs that they are already cutting, those corporate jobs. We got that late January, Amazon saying guidance that they put out assumes no additional restructuring. How do you. What's your read on that? Is, is it. Yeah, I'm just curious, is it more job cuts, other shifts?
- [11:04]
Tim Stenovec
How.
- [11:04]
Carol Massar
What's our takeaway there?
- [11:06]
Poonam Goyal
I think you'll continue to see job cuts. I don't think we're over. You know, they've highlighted it pretty clearly in their shareholder letter last year that AI is going to allow them to pare back on jobs, especially when it comes to some of those jobs that can be automated and the distribution centers and the logistics and in the technology workspace. So I don't think it'. Over. I think there's more to come. But I do think that they, they started and they're continuing to just push through what their original plans were for.
- [11:34]
Carol Massar
Now in terms of operating margin, 11.7%. So that was bang in line with what the street was expecting. They're managing costs, they're getting ahead of things, they're there. That was a good thing to see that they kept that margin.
- [11:47]
Poonam Goyal
Yeah, it was actually really good. In fact, when I look at the margin composition and I look at the North America operating profit margin, which is largely retail, that was slightly ahead of expectations at 9%. So that was encouraging to see. Their international margins were okay. And AWS once again, that's really where you get the margin from.35% was right in line with expectations. So I really think the quarter was in line to slightly better from an operating fundamentals standpoint. I think Capex obviously higher. We want to see where that investment is going, but hopefully they're making the investments and where they need to grow both the AWS and the retail business.
- [12:25]
Carol Massar
All right, just to recap, we've got shares of Amazon paring their decline a little bit. The stock has been down as much as 11% post market right now, down about 7 and a half percent. Here again some of the headlines that we have highlighted on the Bloomberg. The company says 2026 capex about 200 billion. The street estimate was 146.11 billion. Sees first quarter net sales. We've talked about this range. 173.5 billion, 278.5 billion. Street estimate is 175.54 billion. What else are you looking for? I mean obviously more clarity in terms of what we'll get on the claw. But there's call but there's, you know we were talking to Spencer Soper earlier and he's like there's just so much that comes out when you're dealing with Amazon. What other clarity are you looking for from this company or what other aspects?
- [13:11]
Poonam Goyal
Sure, I guess number one, we discuss the CapEx, where it's going. Number two, the backlog on us. I think that would be an interesting point to look at. And on the retail side they're doing a lot, whether it's Rufus, whether it's Alexa Plus I'd love to hear how they're integrating AI into the workflow for consumers to just make that conversion much easier. And then what they're doing with Open Air, we don't know they there, there was news earlier about a $10 billion potential investment. What does that mean? Where is that going? What does it do for Amazon? What is the actual end result here from that investment?
- [13:45]
Tim Stenovec
What about advertising? The company calling out advertising growing 22%. Are we, are we looking at that growth? Are we giving that credit?
- [13:55]
Poonam Goyal
I don't know if we're giving it enough credit but what I would say is it's still, you know, 20% plus growth is admir Amazon. We think that advertising is a segment that sometimes overlooked as we get kind of caught up into aws. I just say that for us advertising is very important because it helps funnel the retail business. It's where you get the money to fund the retail business and the growth that you're having. It's pursuit, especially when it comes to physical stores is grocery, it's high profit margin, higher than the cloud business. So clearly a very important vehicle for them as they move forward.
- [14:28]
Tim Stenovec
Where are the opportunities for advertising? I mean I, I finally did it. I said yes, $3 a month because we want to watch the night manager without any ads. Those ads were really annoying me and I did it. So I guess I'm part of the problem or I guess for Amazon part of the solution. But where's the growth?
- [14:47]
Poonam Goyal
But there's just so much more.
- [14:48]
Carol Massar
Right?
- [14:48]
Poonam Goyal
If you think about the retail platform, there's a lot of advertisement done just on the E commerce aspect of the business. When you have Alexa plus when you have Rufus, they're embedding advertisement in all sorts of ways. On the yes, you're one of the few people that is opting out for those ads, but there are still millions of people who want it ad free and therefore as they increase content especially and now they're increasing content using AI to help facilitate even faster content. There's just so much opportunity for advertising still.
- [15:21]
Carol Massar
Listen, I know this isn't your bailiwick, but I just think about Microsoft Alphabet, like all of these hyperscalers when it comes to the cloud and the AI spending. Is there a takeaway for you on all of this as you kind of watch these numbers that have come out over the last week or so and Alphabet of course, was just last night.
- [15:38]
Poonam Goyal
Yeah, I think the big question that I'm hearing everyone ask is we continue to spend all this money, but what is the ROI on this capex? How do we kind of identify what the return is on the incremental investments that they're making, whether it's in chips, whether it's in other parts of the businesses? Help us like understand how to kind of gauge that impact.
- [15:58]
Carol Massar
All right, great stuff, as always. Covered it all. Putam. Thank you. Thank you. We'll be looking for your research. I know you're going to be working on it later on. It'll be on the Bloomberg. Poonam Goyal, she's senior analyst for E Commerce and Athleisure for Bloomberg Intelligence out there at BI headquarters in Princeton, New Jersey. We're not done. We're going to stay on Amazon because we continue to see this stock, it's off its lows. It was down as much as 11% here in the aftermarket now, Tim, just down about 7%.
- [16:24]
Tim Stenovec
I want to bring in James Choc Mok, partner and chief investment officer at Clockwise Capital. Have got about 70 million in assets under management. Also they've got the clockwise US Core Equity ETF ticker is TME and Amazon is the third biggest holding in the fund, more than 5% of the fund. James, with shares down 7 1/2 percent. Are you buying more tomorrow?
- [16:48]
James Choc Mok
I don't think we'll be increasing our positions on increasing the size of any of our positions at this juncture with the exception of the semiconductor space. You know, we see that the CapEx numbers continue to come in ahead of expectations across all the hyperscalers and we think you just have to follow the money in this market and you know, we're equal weight roughly with the index with respect to Amazon. See no urgency in the grossing of Amazon or any other of the mega cap names.
- [17:19]
Tim Stenovec
Are you concerned about the $200 billion that Amazon will spend this year?
- [17:26]
James Choc Mok
Obviously it's a concern for them and for everybody else. I mean we're living in a world now, in a market now where, you know, earnings, free cash flow, return on spend, all those things are important Again, you know, just a couple of quarters ago you couldn't spend enough and be rewarded for it. And now, you know, there's the market's kind of getting religion again as it relates to the financial performance and the financial expectations and projections for these companies. It was bound to become relevant again at some point and really started last quarter with Broadcom in the month of December. Now you're seeing it percolate across all the companies reporting in January, February.
- [18:10]
Carol Massar
I want to ask you about what the details are that matter. I'm looking at some other highlights from the press release from the last earnings they announced. This is some of the highlights since the company's last earnings announcement include that Amazon announced new AWS agreements with OpenAI, Visa, the NBA, BlackRock, Perplexity, Lyft, United Airlines, DoorDash, Salesforce, US Air Force, Adobe, Thomson Reuters, AT&T S and P, Global, national bank of Canada, London Stock Exchange Group, Choice Hotels, Accenture, Indeed, HSBC, CrowdStrike and more. The reason I went through the list is because I feel like we have this question. Is it just about the hyperscaler spending and building out? But what we're increasingly seeing is more businesses tap into this. Can we make the assumption at this point, James, that these are businesses that are going to continue to have to spend with an Amazon or for that matter with an Alphabet?
- [19:14]
James Choc Mok
Absolutely. I think you have to make that assumption. I mean the world is only going in one direction, productivity is only going to grow and you need to leverage the infrastructure that these companies have built in order to achieve those goals and capitalize on those opportunities. That being said, the money and the profits do matter and we're going through a transition period right now where kind of growth assumptions are being revisited, valuation assumptions are being revisited. I mean if you look at all the companies that have reported thus far and a lot of them had traded down, I think Meta being kind of the main exception. Estimates have gone up for the most part, however. I mean Palantir is actually the poster child for this. Estimates came up materially, however, the stock has since fallen back a lot. And what that means is when estimates go up and the stock goes down that means there's valuation compression and you're seeing the market right now north of three times. Sales valuations are at or near all time highs and they have to come in and that's why you got to stay nimble, you got to stay hedged. And I don't think any of these companies are going to be immune with the exception of semiconductor companies which are probably the only area of the market where you can likely see outperformance relative to expectations by the biggest margin on, on earnings versus other tech companies and other sectors.
- [20:48]
Tim Stenovec
So when, you know when, when Meta platforms was he was Meta earlier this.
- [20:53]
Carol Massar
No, it was Alphabet yesterday.
- [20:55]
Tim Stenovec
Yeah, I'm losing, losing track here James. Thank you Matt Miller.
- [20:59]
Carol Massar
I'm not the only one who forgets.
- [21:01]
Tim Stenovec
What date it is when Alphabet, you know, when, when other companies report higher than expected capex like Alphabet yesterday, you know, you see at least the knee jerk reaction you could see like a Broadcom moving higher for example. Who's the beneficiary of this $200 billion?
- [21:19]
James Choc Mok
I mean it's all the companies that you, you'd consider, you know, within the AI ecosystem from Nvidia on down. But really what we're focused on in terms of our holdings is where the scarcity is. You know, we think there's scarcity in two aspects of the semiconductor industry and that's memory and manufacturing. Now that's why we actually took up our intel position today. You know, Micron continues to be one of our top holdings and you know, we follow, we think that the other areas of the semiconductor landscape will increasingly become commoditized over time and that includes Nvidia, AMD and others. So we're focused on the areas of scarcity and we think those will continue to accrue a disproportionate amount of the benefits. But as far as where this Capex spend goes, you know, I think it will be a rising tide, less of both situation. But who has the pricing power and the most material upside estimates? That's where we're our focuses.
- [22:21]
Carol Massar
We should point out shares of Nvidia in the aftermarket are just up about one quarter of 1%. I'm going to look at something like a Micron and that stock. Let me just pull it up here to see if there's any movement. It's actually down about 1.3%. Hey, one of the things I want to just ask you about, it's in the Press release, Amazon writing that it introduced us AI factories to transform customers existing data centers into high performance AI environment which accelerates AI buildouts by months or years compared to building independently. So it sounds like they've got a little service like you got a data center, we can help get you up to speed. Is that kind of what that's about?
- [22:59]
James Choc Mok
Well, I'm hearing it real time from you right now, so I need to look into it. But you know, services are a big part of the AWS offering and Amazon offering because it's all about how do I increase utilization of my platform. And if you can educate, train and build awareness of the capabilities and the trajectory of offerings, that will only increase utilization and stickiness and customer retention over time. So not surprised that they're doing something like that. Specifics of it I need to look through.
- [23:35]
Carol Massar
No, that's okay. I'm getting up to speed too. I just looked at a press release, this is back in December and they, they talked about by combining the latest AWS Trainium accelerators and Nvidia GPUs and so on and so forth, they're talking about how they can accelerate these factories. I'm just curious about AWS's own chips and accelerators. That's an important business to them.
- [24:00]
James Choc Mok
I think it increasingly will become an important business to them. Google as well. I think there's a lot of opportunity there. It's very early days. Obviously there's a balancing act with Nvidia and other players, so not stepping on toes. But I think it will. That's an area of optionality for the business that is right now not getting any credit.
- [24:24]
Tim Stenovec
Hey James, just an overall sentiment. You said you're not adding any positions except semiconductors right now. I'm just wondering how you're looking at overall sentiment in an environment where we're seeing, seeing, you know, a decline of more than 1% in tech stocks on the day today we're seeing decline of seven and a half percent on Amazon right now. Bitcoin's down 50% from its October highs. It's, it's down today 87, $9,000. Well, what sentiment look like? Is Bitcoin a leading indicator to you?
- [24:52]
James Choc Mok
Well, I'll take the first part first. The as far as where we're adding, that was with respect to technology stocks within technology. We're exclusively adding, adding, but we are adding other areas. You know, aerospace, defense continues to be an area that we're increasing our weight. We're increasing our sizing of utilities and staples. You know, we think that, you know, any money we can pull out of stocks that have run and the non scarce components of technology we will, we're putting into value with the exception of semiconductors. As far as bitcoin is concerned, you know, we think that this is all about leverage in the system. You know, bitcoin crypto has more leverage than pretty much arguably any other part of the market right now. So you're seeing disproportionate hits from that unwinding and as that leverage unwinds, you're seeing a trickle down into and proliferate into the other aspects of the market. And we're really unsure, you know, how much leverage there is ultimately and how much more is left to unwind. So I've seen some headlines to suggest that, you know, is this, does this negate the whole debasement argument, the digital gold argument for Bitcoin? I would venture to say the answer to that is still no. But at the same time there's a lot of leverage in the system and that's unwinding and that's going to, I think, exacerbate pressures in the market over the short term thus far.
- [26:19]
Carol Massar
As always. So glad you could weigh in on this, James. Thanks so much. James Choc Mok he's partner and chief Investment officer at Clockwise Wise Capital. They've got about $700 million in assets under management joining us on this Amazon Thursday.
- [26:39]
Jacob Goldstein
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- [27:40]
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