Podcast Summary: Instant Reaction – Intel Gives Encouraging Forecast After PC Market Rebounds

Podcast: Bloomberg Intelligence
Hosts: Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney
Guest: Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst (Semiconductors and Electronics), Seaport Research Partners
Date: October 23, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Intelligence offers real-time analysis on Intel’s latest quarterly results, which show a stronger-than-expected performance and an optimistic forecast following a rebound in the PC chip market. The discussion focuses on the drivers behind the positive results, future challenges—particularly around Intel’s manufacturing strategy—and the implications of growing US government involvement in the company.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Intel’s Strong Quarter and Market Reaction

• Shares Surge: Intel shares rose by 7% in after-hours trading, marking a significant jump after already climbing 90% year-to-date.
  (03:12)
• Resurgence Across Segments: Both PC and server demand outperformed expectations, attributed to new product launches and adoption of the new 18A manufacturing process.
• US Government Involvement: The US has become Intel's third-largest shareholder, providing a notable confidence boost.

2. Analyst Reaction to Intel’s Results

Guest: Jay Goldberg

• Encouraging Step Forward:

  “I think it's an encouraging step forward for the company. They've been through some rough times and I think the driver of this quarter's results are their new products coming on stream using their 18A, their new manufacturing process as well as some help from tsmc.” — Jay Goldberg (03:12)

• Key Metrics: Gross Margin:
  Goldberg points to Intel’s gross margin outlook as a crucial positive sign, suggesting their new manufacturing processes are on track.

  “I'm most encouraged by the gross margin outlook for next quarter... it looks like it's much better than expected, which is important not just for the financial weight of that, but also it's a good indicator into how their manufacturing process is tracking.” — Jay Goldberg (03:35)

3. The Foundry Question and Strategic Uncertainty

• Foundry Dilemma: CEO Lip Bhutan has stated if Intel can't secure major Foundry customers, it may stop advanced manufacturing—a move with short-term financial gain but dire long-term consequences.

  “As much as this quarter is good progress, the looming question over the company is what are they going to do with the fabs?... If they don't get a customer for Intel Foundry... they're going to stop doing advanced manufacturing...” — Jay Goldberg (04:03)

• Long-Term vs Short-Term Thinking:

  “In the near term, if they stop doing that, it removes a lot of expense, numbers go way up, stock goes up... but long term, it's probably really bad for the company.” — Jay Goldberg (04:17)

• Still Cautious: Goldberg maintains a neutral rating, highlighting continued uncertainty despite progress.

  “I'm still on the fence.” — Jay Goldberg (04:49)

4. Intel’s Cultural and Competitive Challenges

• Internal Struggles Matter Most:

  “I've been saying for years that Intel's biggest challenge is not external competitors... Their biggest challenge is internal and fixing their culture.” — Jay Goldberg (05:43)
  Goldberg praises current CEO Lip Bhutan for addressing these issues but insists Intel must shed its “dominant player” mindset. “They're not the dominant player that they were for 20 years. They're the upstart now, and they got to act like it.” — Jay Goldberg (05:59)

5. Impact of US Government Investment

• Potential Industry Ripple Effect:

  “I think it is going to encourage other US chip companies to consider working with Intel Foundry... it could be seen as patriotic.” — Jay Goldberg (06:47)

• Strategy or Optics?: Are tech giants considering Intel Foundry for business reasons, or to align with government interests?

  “These companies need to work with Intel... If they abandon Intel Foundry today... in five years... TSMC has an effective monopoly today. In five years, they'll have a true actual monopoly.” — Jay Goldberg (07:26)

• Concerns Over Government Involvement:

  “Everybody's a little bit uncomfortable with the US government taking stakes in companies... It's clear that the US is moving towards some kind of national industrial policy. I'm not sure taking a stake in it is quite the right way to do it...” — Jay Goldberg (08:45)

6. Analyst’s Question for Management

• Top Concern:

  “Just quickly, what are you doing with Foundry?” — Jay Goldberg (09:25)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Shares Surge and Results:
  “Yeah, 7% to the upside right now in the after hours... shares [are] up 90% going into the print this year?” — Host (01:52)
• Manufacturing Process and Margins:
  “I'm most encouraged by the gross margin outlook for next quarter... also it's a good indicator into how their manufacturing process is tracking.” — Jay Goldberg (03:35)
• Strategic Uncertainty:
  “If they don't get a customer for Intel Foundry... they're going to stop doing advanced manufacturing. I think that's... hard to square that long term forecast.” — Jay Goldberg (04:03)
• Internal Culture Shift:
  “They're not the dominant player... They're the upstart now, and they got to act like it.” — Jay Goldberg (05:59)
• Industry Consequences:
  “If they abandon Intel Foundry today... TSMC has an effective monopoly today. In five years, they'll have a true actual monopoly.” — Jay Goldberg (07:26)
• US Government Stake:
  “Everybody's a little bit uncomfortable with the US government taking stakes in companies... It's clear that the US is moving towards some kind of national industrial policy.” — Jay Goldberg (08:45)

Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:34] Intel's after-hours surge and background
• [03:12] Jay Goldberg’s initial analysis
• [04:03] Foundry strategy and financial trade-offs
• [05:36] Internal culture and competitive headwinds
• [06:47] The impact of US government investment
• [08:45] Philosophical debate about government stakes
• [09:25] Key question for Intel’s executive team: “What are you doing with Foundry?”

Summary Takeaways

This episode delivered insightful, fast-paced analysis of Intel’s quarterly rebound and the implications of a favorable forecast. The main themes were optimism around new manufacturing gains, the central importance—and risk—of Intel's Foundry strategy, and the complex effects of increased US government involvement. Jay Goldberg’s commentary provided a nuanced, cautious optimism, while emphasizing that Intel’s real challenges are both strategic and cultural.

Listeners were left with the sense that, while this quarter’s results reflect important progress, the longer-term stability and competitive edge of Intel depend on bold decisions around manufacturing and adaptation to a new competitive reality—one increasingly shaped by both market and government forces.