Instant Reaction: Intel Gives Encouraging Forecast After PC Market Rebounds

Summary

Podcast Summary: Instant Reaction – Intel Gives Encouraging Forecast After PC Market Rebounds

Podcast: Bloomberg Intelligence
Hosts: Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney
Guest: Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst (Semiconductors and Electronics), Seaport Research Partners
Date: October 23, 2025

---

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Intelligence offers real-time analysis on Intel’s latest quarterly results, which show a stronger-than-expected performance and an optimistic forecast following a rebound in the PC chip market. The discussion focuses on the drivers behind the positive results, future challenges—particularly around Intel’s manufacturing strategy—and the implications of growing US government involvement in the company.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Intel’s Strong Quarter and Market Reaction

• Shares Surge: Intel shares rose by 7% in after-hours trading, marking a significant jump after already climbing 90% year-to-date.
  (03:12)
• Resurgence Across Segments: Both PC and server demand outperformed expectations, attributed to new product launches and adoption of the new 18A manufacturing process.
• US Government Involvement: The US has become Intel's third-largest shareholder, providing a notable confidence boost.

2. Analyst Reaction to Intel’s Results

Guest: Jay Goldberg

• Encouraging Step Forward:

  “I think it's an encouraging step forward for the company. They've been through some rough times and I think the driver of this quarter's results are their new products coming on stream using their 18A, their new manufacturing process as well as some help from tsmc.” — Jay Goldberg (03:12)

• Key Metrics: Gross Margin:
  Goldberg points to Intel’s gross margin outlook as a crucial positive sign, suggesting their new manufacturing processes are on track.

  “I'm most encouraged by the gross margin outlook for next quarter... it looks like it's much better than expected, which is important not just for the financial weight of that, but also it's a good indicator into how their manufacturing process is tracking.” — Jay Goldberg (03:35)

3. The Foundry Question and Strategic Uncertainty

• Foundry Dilemma: CEO Lip Bhutan has stated if Intel can't secure major Foundry customers, it may stop advanced manufacturing—a move with short-term financial gain but dire long-term consequences.

  “As much as this quarter is good progress, the looming question over the company is what are they going to do with the fabs?... If they don't get a customer for Intel Foundry... they're going to stop doing advanced manufacturing...” — Jay Goldberg (04:03)

• Long-Term vs Short-Term Thinking:

  “In the near term, if they stop doing that, it removes a lot of expense, numbers go way up, stock goes up... but long term, it's probably really bad for the company.” — Jay Goldberg (04:17)

• Still Cautious: Goldberg maintains a neutral rating, highlighting continued uncertainty despite progress.

  “I'm still on the fence.” — Jay Goldberg (04:49)

4. Intel’s Cultural and Competitive Challenges

• Internal Struggles Matter Most:

  “I've been saying for years that Intel's biggest challenge is not external competitors... Their biggest challenge is internal and fixing their culture.” — Jay Goldberg (05:43)
  Goldberg praises current CEO Lip Bhutan for addressing these issues but insists Intel must shed its “dominant player” mindset. “They're not the dominant player that they were for 20 years. They're the upstart now, and they got to act like it.” — Jay Goldberg (05:59)

5. Impact of US Government Investment

• Potential Industry Ripple Effect:

  “I think it is going to encourage other US chip companies to consider working with Intel Foundry... it could be seen as patriotic.” — Jay Goldberg (06:47)

• Strategy or Optics?: Are tech giants considering Intel Foundry for business reasons, or to align with government interests?

  “These companies need to work with Intel... If they abandon Intel Foundry today... in five years... TSMC has an effective monopoly today. In five years, they'll have a true actual monopoly.” — Jay Goldberg (07:26)

• Concerns Over Government Involvement:

  “Everybody's a little bit uncomfortable with the US government taking stakes in companies... It's clear that the US is moving towards some kind of national industrial policy. I'm not sure taking a stake in it is quite the right way to do it...” — Jay Goldberg (08:45)

6. Analyst’s Question for Management

• Top Concern:

  “Just quickly, what are you doing with Foundry?” — Jay Goldberg (09:25)

---

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Shares Surge and Results:
  “Yeah, 7% to the upside right now in the after hours... shares [are] up 90% going into the print this year?” — Host (01:52)
• Manufacturing Process and Margins:
  “I'm most encouraged by the gross margin outlook for next quarter... also it's a good indicator into how their manufacturing process is tracking.” — Jay Goldberg (03:35)
• Strategic Uncertainty:
  “If they don't get a customer for Intel Foundry... they're going to stop doing advanced manufacturing. I think that's... hard to square that long term forecast.” — Jay Goldberg (04:03)
• Internal Culture Shift:
  “They're not the dominant player... They're the upstart now, and they got to act like it.” — Jay Goldberg (05:59)
• Industry Consequences:
  “If they abandon Intel Foundry today... TSMC has an effective monopoly today. In five years, they'll have a true actual monopoly.” — Jay Goldberg (07:26)
• US Government Stake:
  “Everybody's a little bit uncomfortable with the US government taking stakes in companies... It's clear that the US is moving towards some kind of national industrial policy.” — Jay Goldberg (08:45)

---

Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:34] Intel's after-hours surge and background
• [03:12] Jay Goldberg’s initial analysis
• [04:03] Foundry strategy and financial trade-offs
• [05:36] Internal culture and competitive headwinds
• [06:47] The impact of US government investment
• [08:45] Philosophical debate about government stakes
• [09:25] Key question for Intel’s executive team: “What are you doing with Foundry?”

---

Summary Takeaways

This episode delivered insightful, fast-paced analysis of Intel’s quarterly rebound and the implications of a favorable forecast. The main themes were optimism around new manufacturing gains, the central importance—and risk—of Intel's Foundry strategy, and the complex effects of increased US government involvement. Jay Goldberg’s commentary provided a nuanced, cautious optimism, while emphasizing that Intel’s real challenges are both strategic and cultural.

Listeners were left with the sense that, while this quarter’s results reflect important progress, the longer-term stability and competitive edge of Intel depend on bold decisions around manufacturing and adaptation to a new competitive reality—one increasingly shaped by both market and government forces.

Transcript

[FIFA Hospitality Announcer]

The FIFA World Cup 26 is coming to North America. Get closer to where business meets the beautiful game with a hospitality package featuring premium seats and entertainment. Get closer to wins on and off the pitch. Register [e-mail] Interest the Chase Inc. Business Premier card is a painful card with flexibility made for business owners who make things happen. Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more, plus earn unlimited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlim unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business. Inc. Business Premier is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way. Learn [e-mail] businesscard Chase for Business make more of what's yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank.

[Hiscox Insurance Representative]

NA member FDIC Hiscock Small business Insurance Knows there is no business like your business. Across America, over 600,000 small businesses, from accountants and architects to photographers and yoga instructors, look to Hiscox Insurance for protection. Find flexible coverage that adapts to the needs of your small business with a fast, easy online', @hiscox.com that's his there's no business like small business. Hiscox Small Business Insurance Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[Bloomberg Host]

This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world. We're watching a lot of different companies but I want to home in on one and that would be intel shares surging in the after hours, building the.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

Momentum to the upside.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah, 7% to the upside right now in the after hours, little bit at the beginning. Trepidation I think for shareholders. But I know it could have to do also with some corrected numbers that were coming back and forth over the terminal for the the results. The most recent results as you mentioned, shares what up 90% going into the print this year?

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

Well yeah, we know like there was the US taking that position in intel, specifically an equity position and it is now the third largest investor in Intel. So that certainly has given it a jolt if you will this year. But again I think what's interesting is the company CF speaking in an interview. You can check out our Ian Kings right through on this. But intel saying the third quarter was stronger than it thought across the board. So yeah, server demand was a surprise positive. It feels like there's a lot of things that feel like the changes, the moves by Lip Bhutan, the CEO, maybe some of it's starting to pay Off.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, I wanted to see what Jay Goldberg has to say about all this. He's semiconductors and Electronics Senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners. He joins us from San Francisco. Jay, good to have you. You cover a lot of these companies, including Intel. You've got a neutral rating on Intel. Just give us your first reaction to this report that shows an encouraging forecast after a rebound in the PC chip market.

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Yeah, I think it's an encouraging step forward for the company. They've been through some rough times and I think the driver of this quarter's results are their new products coming on stream using their 18A, their new manufacturing process as well as some help from tsmc. A bunch of new products starting to ramp into production and volume. I think that's helping a lot. I'm most encouraged by the gross margin outlook for next quarter. I haven't run through all my numbers, but it looks like it's much better than expected, which is important not just for the financial weight of that, but also it's a good indicator into how their manufacturing process is tracking.

[Bloomberg Host]

I don't. Sorry, go ahead. I don't want to get you in trouble with compliance, but can you, are you going to change your, your outlook, your rating on the stock?

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

So I just upgraded it about a month ago from sell to neutral. And my concern here is, is more that big picture question you all were talking about earlier. As much as this quarter is good progress and we're seeing sort of tactically they're moving in the right direction, the looming question over the company is what are they going to do with the fabs? Last quarter CEO Lip Bhutan said if they don't get a customer for Intel Foundry, an external customer for Foundry, they're going to stop doing advanced manufacturing. I think that's one of these tough analyst calls because in the near term if they stop doing that, it removes a lot of expense numbers, go way up, stock goes up, it's a near term, easy thing to do. But long term it's probably really bad for the company. It's just hard to square that long term forecast, multi year forecast.

[Hiscox Insurance Representative]

So.

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

So I'm still on the fence.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

Hey, one thing I want to just point out, Jay, is that it looks like they're talking about seeing a fourth quarter adjusted gross margin of 36.5%. Third quarter adjusted gross margin was 40% against an estimate of 36.1%. Is that the number you were looking for?

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Yeah, but there's a lot of adjustments in there, so I haven't worked through them all.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

Listen, this is a company that's been around for a long time. You know, you're entrenched in how you were what you were different executives coming in to try and write this ship. You know, it's a big ship to turn while also facing lots of growing competition. Do you feel like it is in the right direction?

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

I think it's too soon to tell. I really hope it's in the moving in the right direction, but it's too soon to tell. Like, what are they going to do with those fabs?

[Hiscox Insurance Representative]

Right.

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

And I've been saying for years that Intel's biggest challenge is not external competitors or customers. Their biggest challenge is internal and fixing their culture. So on that mark, I think this is a step forward. Lippu has a plan and he's chipping away at this sort of internal problem. But they really have to readjust their worldview internally and understand that they're not the dominant player that they were for 20 years. They're the upstart now, and they got to act like it.

[Bloomberg Host]

Jay, we spent a good portion of our program earlier talking about economic statecraft and the new role the US Government is taking in companies. The reporting around potentially investing in some of these quantum companies. We of course have the intel among the US Government being among the biggest shareholders in Intel, US Steel, the golden share there, the critical minerals and mining companies that have taken investment or had interest expressed in them. From an intel perspective, how does the US Government investment change Intel?

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

I think it is going to encourage other US Chip companies to consider working with Intel Foundry. Right. Because you know, Nvidia is already invested in it. SoftBank's invested in Intel. Now do we see Apple or Amazon or Google or one of these other potential intel customers sign up to work with Intel Foundry, take that risk because it could be seen as patriotic.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, that's okay. I'm glad you said that. Do they do it because it's the right thing for their business, because it's the best option for a foundry, or is it because it shows the Trump administration that they're supporting a business that the administration has invested in?

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

So I think it can be both.

[Hiscox Insurance Representative]

Right.

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

My view is that these companies need to work with Intel. They need to see intel foundries succeeded. Because if they abandon Intel Foundry today and intel abandons it entirely, what happens in five years when they're TSMC has an effective monopoly today. In five years they'll have a true actual monopoly. And that's going to be really challenging for all these companies. It's hard the way that Companies work, they're thinking on 90 day cycles. Somebody needs to be thinking of the 5, 10 year time horizon and maybe the government is the sort of the forcing function that gets us there.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

You know who thinks in more than five or ten year cycles? A little country named China. They're pretty good about those long term plannings. Just having some fun with you, Jay. Well, having said that though, you know, on the other hand, are there companies are saying I don't get involved with anybody who's involved in the government because just like the way the US government for a long time has been our, you know, US investors have been critical of sovereign held entities in other countries. So is there some justification in that as well? Or should we just assume that intel now has a massive backup called the US government?

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

So I think everybody's a little bit uncomfortable with the US government taking stakes in companies. Everyone I know on Wall street, everyone I know in the Valley, just a little bit uncomfortable about it, sort of ideologically it's not something we're used to. It's clear that the US is moving towards some kind of national industrial policy. This is one way to achieve that. I'm not sure taking a stake in it is quite the right way to do it, but there are merits for being a little bit more somewhere in between the government controlling everything and the government doing nothing. Maybe there's a happy medium we can find.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

Hey, 30 seconds on the call or you're sitting down with intel execs. What do you want to ask them?

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Just quickly, what are you doing with Foundry?

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

Okay, that was great, so appreciate it. Jay Goldberg, Thanks. Senior Analyst Semiconductors and Electronics at Seaport Research Partners. We're looking at intel continuing to trade higher here in the aftermarket.

[Hiscox Insurance Representative]

How can you free your team from time consuming office tasks? Amazon Business empowers leaders to not only streamline purchasing, but better support their teams. Smart business buying tools enable buyers to find and purchase items fast so they can focus on strategy and growth. It's time to free up your teams and focus on your future. Learn more about the technology insights and support available at Amazon Business.

[Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

As a contractor, I don't pay for materials I don't use. So why would I pay for stuff I don't need in my mobile plan? That's why the new My Biz plan from Verizon Business is so perfect. Now I can choose exactly what I want and I only pay for what I need right now with my biz plan. Get our best price as low as 25 a line. Visit verizon.combusiness to get started today. New lines only. Price per month with five plus lines includes auto pay and pay for free billing and promotional discount, taxes, fees, economic adjustment charge applicable. Add ons prices and terms apply. Guarantee applies to base monthly rate and stated discounts only. Add on prices. Additional offers in November 17, 2025.

[Hiscox Insurance Representative]

Hiscox Small Business Insurance Knows there is no business like your business. Across America, over 600,000 small businesses, from accountants and architects to photographers and yoga instructors, look to Hiscox Insurance for protection. Find flexible coverage that adapts to the needs of your small business with a fast, easy online', @hiscox.com that's his there's no business like small business. Hiscox Small Business Insurance.