Instant Reaction: Intel Gives Weak Forecast, Shares Slide Afterhours

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Intelligence

Episode: Instant Reaction: Intel Gives Weak Forecast, Shares Slide Afterhours
Date: January 22, 2026
Host(s): Scarlet Fu, Paul Sweeney
Guest: Ivan (Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners)

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers a rapid, in-depth analysis of Intel’s disappointing earnings forecast and the subsequent slide in its stock price after hours. The hosts discuss investor reactions, the impact of U.S. government support, and Intel’s ongoing transformation with Ivan, a bullish industry analyst. The conversation homes in on what’s really driving Intel’s new trajectory despite near-term setbacks.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Immediate Market Reaction

• Intel shares drop ~4% after hours following a weak quarterly forecast and ongoing supply shortages.
• Demand remains strong for Intel’s products, but the company faces execution issues meeting that demand.
  • “We've got Intel shares down about 3.8%. ...Not a new story that we've heard around the chip companies...the demand is there, but they can't meet the demand.” (Host, 00:33)

2. Structural Change, Not Just a Bad Quarter

• Ivan argues Intel’s current “story” is part of a major, multi-year transformation under new CEO Lip Tan, not just a reflection of weak quarterly results.
  • “It's not this quarter. It's not a quarterly story. It is a major shift in the company.” (Ivan, 01:32)
• The company’s stock had surged from the low $20s to $55—potentially “a little ahead of itself,” but Ivan sees any pullback as an opportunity.

3. Catalysts for Intel’s Transformation

• Major U.S. government investments, driven by “President Trump's push on what's sold here is made here,” are pivotal in reshaping Intel’s prospects, both for its core business and as a semiconductor foundry.
  • “It's President Trump's push on what's sold here is made here. Investing in US Semiconductor Manufacturing capacity here, expanding the Intel foundry business...” (Ivan, 02:34)
• Growth is also fueled by booming data center demand and the proliferation of AI-enabled products.
  • “They are perfectly positioned to benefit from...the AI-driven growth in both the tech sector and the US and global economy.” (Ivan, 02:34)

4. US Government Support: Game-Changer

• Ivan jokes about the reversal in policy: from President Trump wanting to “deport” CEO Lip Tan to now “giving the guy money.”
  • “But it's really funny that President Trump wanted to go from deporting the guy to giving the guy money.” (Ivan, 03:53)
• U.S. investment removes balance sheet concerns and allows management to focus on innovation and growth.
  • “This removes concerns, balance sheet concerns and allows the company and the CEO to focus on business.” (Ivan, 04:58)

5. Defense and Foundry Business

• Intel’s deepened ties with both Nvidia and the U.S. government bolster its standing in both commercial and defense industries.
  • “There's no better partner...U.S. government and Nvidia.” (Ivan, 04:34)
• U.S. government support could position Intel to challenge Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) as a leading manufacturer.
  • “Intel as a major contender as a semiconductor foundry…to take on Taiwan Semiconductor.” (Ivan, 04:58)

6. Technology Roadmap & Supply/Demand Mismatch

• Host questions progress on 14A chip production (targeted for 2028), Ivan underlines the “tailwind” of demand far outstripping supply and Intel’s renewed innovation momentum.
  • “Demand for all semiconductors is outstripping supply...they are back to innovating and developing and working, winning customers...” (Ivan, 06:07)
• Notes a historic share price rally: “The stock ran up a lot. It went from 20 to 55... even if it pulls back... it’s a buying opportunity.” (Ivan, 06:53)

7. Foundry Services: Vital for Growth

• Intel’s foundry division needs to win business beyond internal divisions to drive future expansion.
  • “It’s crucial...that is the opportunity to work with everybody...most other semiconductor companies...outsource to companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and hopefully companies like Intel…” (Ivan, 07:37)
• Ivan sees Intel emerging as a viable foundry alternative for global clients.

8. Broader U.S. Semiconductor Investment

• Ivan points to ongoing government-backed chip projects (Arizona, Ohio) and future aspirations for America to become "the semiconductor manufacturing capital for the world." (Ivan, 09:00)

9. Valuation Discussion

• Intel’s EBITDA multiple now surpasses TSMC’s—a sign of bullish investor sentiment about Intel’s future despite ongoing execution challenges.
  • “Intel now pricier than TSMC. Does that make sense?” (Host, 09:11)
  • Ivan: “Stocks go up for everything that you really can't measure. And this is about Intel's future...” (Ivan, 09:42)
• The bet is on Intel ramping revenues, expanding margins, and returning to industry leadership.

10. Execution Remains Key

• CEO Lip Tan’s closing message: Intel’s challenge is execution—they are “laser focused” on improving.
  • “To be candid, it's just our execution that needs to improve.” (Host paraphrasing CEO, 10:19)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On transformation:
  • “It's not this quarter. It's not a quarterly story. It is a major shift in the company.” — Ivan (01:32)
• On U.S. policy shift:
  • “But it's really funny that President Trump wanted to go from deporting the guy to giving the guy money.” — Ivan (03:53)
• On the government partnership:
  • “There's no better partner... U.S. government and Nvidia.” — Ivan (04:34)
• On execution:
  • “To be candid, it's just our execution that needs to improve.” — CEO Lip Tan (as cited by Host, 10:19)
• On future outlook:
  • “I think they are going to be one of the world's leading semiconductor developers, designers and manufacturers.” — Ivan (06:53)
• On valuation:
  • “Stocks go up for everything that you really can't measure. And this is about Intel's future.” — Ivan (09:42)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:33 – Immediate aftermarket reaction, context for Intel’s slide
• 01:32 – Ivan’s take: this is a structural shift, not just quarterly volatility
• 02:34 – US government investment and “Made in America” policy catalyzing Intel
• 03:53 – The “Trump-Tan” dynamic and its impact
• 04:34 – Intel’s positioning for the defense sector
• 04:58 – US investment removes balance sheet concerns, Intel now able to focus on global competitiveness
• 06:07 – Ivan details the demand backdrop and 14A/18A production
• 07:37 – Why foundry services are vital for Intel’s future
• 09:11 – Intel’s valuation premium to TSMC: is it justified?
• 10:19 – CEO’s execution challenge and Ivan's closing perspective

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Conclusion

Despite near-term headwinds, Ivan and the hosts see Intel as a company in transition—buoyed by government investment, strategic partnerships, and secular demand for AI and data center chips. Execution challenges and a lofty valuation loom, but the long-term outlook is decidedly bullish if its “major shift” delivers as promised.

Transcript

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[Bloomberg Host]

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[Bloomberg Interviewer]

This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world, focusing.

[Bloomberg Host]

Once again on earnings and intel certainly on that list as we see it bopping around in the aftermarket. What does that mean? We've got intel shares down about 3.8% as we speak and some of it has to do with a weak forecast supply shortages, hampering sales. This is not a new story that we've heard around the chip companies, particularly when it comes to the demand is there, they can't meet the demand, which is kind of a good positive story that the demand is still there. But it's not great when you can't meet that and you're just, you know, trying to kind of connect the dots.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Yeah, I want to bring in Ivan finds that research director and chief investment officer at Tigris Financial Partners. The firm has more than $500 million under management. Ivan has a buy rating on the company's stock. Ivan does just very like your immediate knee jerk reaction to this. Does your, does your rating. Well, I know you can't answer that question, but your knee jerk reaction, I'm not going to ask you your knee jerk reaction to the numbers here. You're shaking your head.

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

It's not this quarter. It's not a quarterly story. It is a major shift in the company. It's, and they have, I think turned a major corner. But the stock has also run up significantly from a lower 20, it hit $55. So I think it may have gotten a little ahead of self and it may pull back. But I think everything that's going on under the new CEO Lip Tan is, is as planned. I mean, they are well positioned to benefit from a data center demand, AI computer demand, their partnership with intel money from the US Government. So they are plenty flush to invest in all of their key growth initiatives.

[Bloomberg Host]

So fundamentally, what's changed, Ivan, when it comes to this company, you obviously sound really upbeat. Is it just a case of, of having the backdrop because, you know, of the United States government? Is that what's done it? You know, kind of it's everything. Okay.

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

It's the, it's first of all, it's the, it's President Trump's push on what's sold here is made here. Investing in US Semiconductor Manufacturing capacity here, expanding the intel foundry business as well as the growth of data centers, the growth of AI enabled PCs. So they are positioned I think perfectly to benefit from what is in the early innings of what going to be a long game of the AI driven growth in both the tech sector and the US and the global economy.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

So, okay, I just want to, this is a different company than it was six months ago as a result, as a result of the US investment. And I'm wondering what that position, what that type of, what that investment does for lifbutants position. Like you know when you're the CEO of a company and you come out with a report, you're, you're obviously, you got to worry about the board, you got to worry about shareholders. Now he's got to worry about a phone call from President Trump because the President likes to talk about how well the stock has done since the US Made that investment. What does that change the dynamic?

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

It doesn't. But it's really funny that President Trump wanted to go from deporting the guy to giving the guy money.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Hey, that's the power of a conversation. Right.

[Bloomberg Host]

But it also shows.

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

Absolutely.

[Bloomberg Host]

But it also shows how quickly things can change. Certainly from the White House perspective.

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

Well, it highlights Trump's perspective on driving the, the US Manufacturing infrastructure. US Leadership in all key areas. And semiconductors is a very important area, especially that intel makes semiconductors for the defense industry.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Interesting. Okay, so does it make the, the defense business stronger?

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

Absolutely. Hey, there's no better partner. One number one partner. I don't. Well, it could be a tie. U.S. government and Nvidia. Okay, so let me best partners get.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Let me, let me ask this question a different way than Ivan. And that's about where intel would be right now if the US Government had not made that investment. Would this be a completely different picture? Would it have been a completely different quarter?

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

Well, yeah, I think this has helped. I think this removes concerns, balance sheet concerns and allows the company and the CEO to focus on business. A partnership with Nvidia is great and partnership with the US it opens up doors. They're back working with Apple. They're going to be working with everybody. And I think you're going to see intel as a major contender as a semiconductor foundry, semiconductor manufacturer to take on Taiwan Semiconductor.

[Bloomberg Host]

So, okay, going back to intel under pressure in the aftermarket. We continue to track the share price. I think down about 4 or 5% as we speak. The forecast for the first quarter, top and bottom line, disappointing. At the same time, it's Talking about the CEO saying demand is quite strong. Says the chip maker missed a lot of opportunities, says production yields not up to his standards. And then he goes on to say making or intel. Says the company making good progress in 14A production on track for volume production in 2028, has multiple engineering engagements on 14A. Help me understand what that means.

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

These are different chips. The 14A, the 18A that day and the announcements that they made earlier this month at the cbs, they got their latest semiconductors on track to go into production to meet huge demand. Demand for all semiconductors is outstripping supply. There's in fact concerns of memory shortage and processor shortage. So they got the demand wind is that is a tailwind. And they are back to innovating and developing and working winning customers and working with key, you know, computer manufacturers, key hyperscaler, you know, cloud service providers. And I think that they got a tremendous tailwind. The stock ran up a lot. It went from 20 to 55. Even if it pulls back to 45, you know, it's a buying opportunity because I think that long term they are going to be back. I mean, I don't think even be back to their former glory. I think they are going to be one of the world's leading semiconductor developers, designers and manufacturers.

[Bloomberg Host]

So the Foundry services division, their factory unit revenue of about four and a half billion. It was a gain of about 3.8%, Ivan, from the year before. It currently relies on almost exclusively, as you know, intel product divisions for orders. It's looking to expand beyond that. That is that crucial for the company's future growth?

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

It's crucial, but that is the opportunity to work with everybody because you got to realize that most of the other semiconductor companies, even in video, Apple, all of the companies like Google, Facebook, Amazon that want their own processors, Qualcomm, they're all virtual manufacturer. They don't actually manufacture. They outsource to companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and hopefully companies like intel to manufacture their processors.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

You know, is the U.S. the U.S. is at least from an investment perspective, things have kind of quieted down a little bit since this summer. But are there any other companies, particularly companies within your universe that you follow that could see in your view an investment by the U.S. government?

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

You know, that I don't know. The other companies that I like in the semiconductor sector are Nvidia and Qualcomm. And you know, Nvidia is pretty flush.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Yeah, they don't need. So I don't think they could, they could make an investment in the US Government.

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

Yes, I really think it was great how it turned around after the meeting with Trump and Tan that Trump wrote a check and and also we have a lot of government incentives to to build semiconductor manufacturing capacity here.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah.

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

We have projects in Arizona, projects in Ohio. So ideally the US could be the semiconductor manufacturing capital for the world.

[Bloomberg Host]

So in terms of going back to and you right. Rightfully so. Ivan point out the run up that we've seen in Ivan in Ivan shares in intel shares. You know the information put out a story and it says Intel's forward EBITDA multiple has lifted to 20 times highest level since 20. Well above the 12 and a half times at which TSMC currently trades. This is what I was trying to get to before with our simulcast. I was talking market caps but it has to do with valuation. Intel now pricier than tsmc. Does that make sense?

[Ivan, Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners]

Well, I always say I wish we could solve the mysteries of the stock market by dividing two numbers like cash flow or even P E. Stocks go up for everything that you really can't measure. And this is about Intel's future. So we are going to see if all goes well a huge ramp up in revenue in an expansion in margin, an increase in cash and then an increase in profitability. So I think their foundry business will ramp up significantly and as their new processors come to market, revenue and cash flow and profitability will ramp up also ramp up significantly.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah, Lipouton saying, you know, intel faces an execution challenge. We are laser focused as a team to improve that. To be candid, it's just our execution that needs to improve. Ivan.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Fine.

[Bloomberg Host]

Seth, great stuff as always, so appreciate it. He's of course chief investment officer over at Tigris Financial Partners joining us on Intel.