Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Intelligence
Episode: Instant Reaction: Intel Gives Weak Forecast, Shares Slide Afterhours
Date: January 22, 2026
Host(s): Scarlet Fu, Paul Sweeney
Guest: Ivan (Chief Investment Officer at Tigris Financial Partners)
Episode Overview
This episode delivers a rapid, in-depth analysis of Intel’s disappointing earnings forecast and the subsequent slide in its stock price after hours. The hosts discuss investor reactions, the impact of U.S. government support, and Intel’s ongoing transformation with Ivan, a bullish industry analyst. The conversation homes in on what’s really driving Intel’s new trajectory despite near-term setbacks.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Immediate Market Reaction
- Intel shares drop ~4% after hours following a weak quarterly forecast and ongoing supply shortages.
- Demand remains strong for Intel’s products, but the company faces execution issues meeting that demand.
- “We've got Intel shares down about 3.8%. ...Not a new story that we've heard around the chip companies...the demand is there, but they can't meet the demand.” (Host, 00:33)
2. Structural Change, Not Just a Bad Quarter
- Ivan argues Intel’s current “story” is part of a major, multi-year transformation under new CEO Lip Tan, not just a reflection of weak quarterly results.
- “It's not this quarter. It's not a quarterly story. It is a major shift in the company.” (Ivan, 01:32)
- The company’s stock had surged from the low $20s to $55—potentially “a little ahead of itself,” but Ivan sees any pullback as an opportunity.
3. Catalysts for Intel’s Transformation
- Major U.S. government investments, driven by “President Trump's push on what's sold here is made here,” are pivotal in reshaping Intel’s prospects, both for its core business and as a semiconductor foundry.
- “It's President Trump's push on what's sold here is made here. Investing in US Semiconductor Manufacturing capacity here, expanding the Intel foundry business...” (Ivan, 02:34)
- Growth is also fueled by booming data center demand and the proliferation of AI-enabled products.
- “They are perfectly positioned to benefit from...the AI-driven growth in both the tech sector and the US and global economy.” (Ivan, 02:34)
4. US Government Support: Game-Changer
- Ivan jokes about the reversal in policy: from President Trump wanting to “deport” CEO Lip Tan to now “giving the guy money.”
- “But it's really funny that President Trump wanted to go from deporting the guy to giving the guy money.” (Ivan, 03:53)
- U.S. investment removes balance sheet concerns and allows management to focus on innovation and growth.
- “This removes concerns, balance sheet concerns and allows the company and the CEO to focus on business.” (Ivan, 04:58)
5. Defense and Foundry Business
- Intel’s deepened ties with both Nvidia and the U.S. government bolster its standing in both commercial and defense industries.
- “There's no better partner...U.S. government and Nvidia.” (Ivan, 04:34)
- U.S. government support could position Intel to challenge Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) as a leading manufacturer.
- “Intel as a major contender as a semiconductor foundry…to take on Taiwan Semiconductor.” (Ivan, 04:58)
6. Technology Roadmap & Supply/Demand Mismatch
- Host questions progress on 14A chip production (targeted for 2028), Ivan underlines the “tailwind” of demand far outstripping supply and Intel’s renewed innovation momentum.
- “Demand for all semiconductors is outstripping supply...they are back to innovating and developing and working, winning customers...” (Ivan, 06:07)
- Notes a historic share price rally: “The stock ran up a lot. It went from 20 to 55... even if it pulls back... it’s a buying opportunity.” (Ivan, 06:53)
7. Foundry Services: Vital for Growth
- Intel’s foundry division needs to win business beyond internal divisions to drive future expansion.
- “It’s crucial...that is the opportunity to work with everybody...most other semiconductor companies...outsource to companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and hopefully companies like Intel…” (Ivan, 07:37)
- Ivan sees Intel emerging as a viable foundry alternative for global clients.
8. Broader U.S. Semiconductor Investment
- Ivan points to ongoing government-backed chip projects (Arizona, Ohio) and future aspirations for America to become "the semiconductor manufacturing capital for the world." (Ivan, 09:00)
9. Valuation Discussion
- Intel’s EBITDA multiple now surpasses TSMC’s—a sign of bullish investor sentiment about Intel’s future despite ongoing execution challenges.
- “Intel now pricier than TSMC. Does that make sense?” (Host, 09:11)
- Ivan: “Stocks go up for everything that you really can't measure. And this is about Intel's future...” (Ivan, 09:42)
- The bet is on Intel ramping revenues, expanding margins, and returning to industry leadership.
10. Execution Remains Key
- CEO Lip Tan’s closing message: Intel’s challenge is execution—they are “laser focused” on improving.
- “To be candid, it's just our execution that needs to improve.” (Host paraphrasing CEO, 10:19)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On transformation:
- “It's not this quarter. It's not a quarterly story. It is a major shift in the company.” — Ivan (01:32)
- On U.S. policy shift:
- “But it's really funny that President Trump wanted to go from deporting the guy to giving the guy money.” — Ivan (03:53)
- On the government partnership:
- “There's no better partner... U.S. government and Nvidia.” — Ivan (04:34)
- On execution:
- “To be candid, it's just our execution that needs to improve.” — CEO Lip Tan (as cited by Host, 10:19)
- On future outlook:
- “I think they are going to be one of the world's leading semiconductor developers, designers and manufacturers.” — Ivan (06:53)
- On valuation:
- “Stocks go up for everything that you really can't measure. And this is about Intel's future.” — Ivan (09:42)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:33 – Immediate aftermarket reaction, context for Intel’s slide
- 01:32 – Ivan’s take: this is a structural shift, not just quarterly volatility
- 02:34 – US government investment and “Made in America” policy catalyzing Intel
- 03:53 – The “Trump-Tan” dynamic and its impact
- 04:34 – Intel’s positioning for the defense sector
- 04:58 – US investment removes balance sheet concerns, Intel now able to focus on global competitiveness
- 06:07 – Ivan details the demand backdrop and 14A/18A production
- 07:37 – Why foundry services are vital for Intel’s future
- 09:11 – Intel’s valuation premium to TSMC: is it justified?
- 10:19 – CEO’s execution challenge and Ivan's closing perspective
Conclusion
Despite near-term headwinds, Ivan and the hosts see Intel as a company in transition—buoyed by government investment, strategic partnerships, and secular demand for AI and data center chips. Execution challenges and a lofty valuation loom, but the long-term outlook is decidedly bullish if its “major shift” delivers as promised.